Coupled impacts of climate and land use changes on regional ecosystem services

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of ecosystem services on Hainan Island from 1985 to 2022: Insights from long-term annual assessments and spatial econometric models

Determining dynamic changes in ecosystem services (ESs) as well as their drivers is important for formulating effective ES management strategies and promoting regional sustainable development. However, long-term, continuous ES dynamic assessments and the spatial spillover effects of ESs have not been sufficiently addressed. To fill this gap, we conducted a comprehensive quantification of ESs on Hainan Island, specifically assessing habitat quality (HQ), carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), water purification (WP), and food production (FP) between 1985 and 2022. The spatiotemporal variation of the ESs were also analyzed. In addition, we used spatial econometric models and network analysis methods to explore the factors impacting ESs. The results showed that HQ and CS in Hainan Island showed a downward trend from 1985 to 2022, while WY, SC, WP and FP showed an increasing trend. ESs had obvious spatial heterogeneity. HQ, CS and SC showed a spatial pattern of high in the middle and low in the coastal areas, while WP and FP showed the opposite pattern. The spatial distribution of WY was quite different, but it generally showed a spatial pattern of decreasing from northeast to southwest. In addition, we found that ESs degraded significantly in the coastal areas of Hainan Island. Although the ESs in Hainan Island were the result of a combination of multiple factors, annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index has the strongest impact on multiple ESs in Hainan Island, and the spatial spillover effect has been proved to be an important reason for the spatial heterogeneity of ESs. This study emphasized the importance of long-term continuous ES assessment by analyzing the spatiotemporal changes of ESs, which enhances the understanding of ES dynamic evolution and spatial spillover effects. The findings provide scientific support for optimizing ES management strategies in Hainan Island, while offering valuable insights for ES assessment and cross-regional collaborative governance in other regions.

Integrated trade-offs/synergies and interactions approach to quantifying the direct and indirect effects of environmental factors on ecosystem services

The driving mechanisms of ecosystem services (ESs) involve two aspects: the effects of environmental factors (e.g., precipitation and slope) on ESs and the effects of trade-offs/synergies on ESs. Clarifying the complex causal relationships between environmental factors and ESs is essential for decision-makers to formulate ES management. However, existing studies have focused more on identifying the main drivers of ESs without adequately exploring the direct and indirect effects of environmental factors on ESs, especially those based on the interactions between environmental factors and trade-offs/synergies on ESs. In this study, we proposed an integrated approach of trade-offs/synergies and interactions to quantify the direct and indirect effects of environmental factors on ESs by differentiating between the effects of trade-offs/synergies on ESs and the effects of environmental factors on ESs. Three typical ESs, net primary productivity (NPP), soil conservation (SC), and water yield (WY), were estimated in Sichuan Province from 2000-2020. The trade-offs/synergies between ES pairs were subsequently explored using correlation analysis and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The interactions between environmental factors and ESs were verified and separated utilizing the Geodetector model and partial correlation analysis. Finally, the direct and indirect effects of environmental factors on ESs were measured through the bootstrap method. The results revealed that (1) from 2000-2020, three ESs exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity in Sichuan Province. (2) Complex trade-offs and synergies among these ESs were apparent at the provincial scale, characterized by distinct spatial heterogeneity. (3) DEM, temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity were the dominant factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of ESs. Notably, the interactions involving environmental factors and ESs demonstrated more robust explanatory power for ESs and their trade-offs/synergies than individual drivers did. (4) DEM and temperature had significant direct and indirect effects on ESs when NPP and WY served as the mediating variables, and these mediating variables contributed significantly to the total effect. The integrated trade-offs/synergies and interactions approach deepens our understanding of ES mechanisms and provides a theoretical basis and reference for decision-making, rather than blindly pursuing the maximization of a particular service at the expense of others.

Spatiotemporal evolution and multiscenario simulation of cultivated land ecosystem services in the Dongting Lake Plain

With the rapid development of the social economy, human dependence on and interference with cultivated land ecosystems have increased. Improving the understanding of changes in ecosystem services is conducive to avoiding and reducing the risk of ecosystem service degradation. This study evaluated seven key ecosystem services of cultivated land in the Dongting Lake Plain from 2000 to 2020, analysed their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and correlations between ecosystem service pairs, and identified the key factors driving their changes. Finally, the PLUS model was used to predict land use changes and ecosystem service responses under the baseline scenario, farmland protection scenario, and ecological protection scenario in 2040. The results revealed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, in addition to the degradation of carbon storage services and habitat quality services, the food production, environmental purification, water conservation, soil conservation and landscape aesthetic services of the Dongting Lake Plain all showed increasing trends. The high- and low-value areas of each ecosystem service vary, but the overall spatial pattern is relatively stable. (2) In 2000, 2010 and 2020, the proportions of trade-off relationships among the 21 ecosystem service pairs in the Dongting Lake Plain were 52.38%, 51.74% and 28.57%, respectively. During the study period, the dominant correlation between ecosystem services shifted from trade-offs to synergies. (3) Ecosystem services are influenced by both natural background conditions and human activities. Natural factors have a greater impact than do socioeconomic factors. Precipitation, temperature and altitude are the key factors driving changes in ecosystem services. (4) The simulation results of multiple scenarios reveal that by 2040, the cultivated land in the Dongting Lake Plain will suffer the greatest loss under the baseline scenario, with the percentage decreasing from 54.07% to 51.64%. In addition to the improvement of environmental purification services, the total amount of various services will also increase. The reduction is the most significant in this scenario, followed by the ecological protection scenario. In the farmland protection scenario, ecosystem services are protected to a certain extent.

Uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization of a water yield ecosystem service model: A case study of the Qilian Mountains, China

Integrating accurate outcomes of ecosystem service assessments into decision analysis is crucial for an efficient environmental management. However, there are still gaps in our knowledge about estimating and reducing parameter uncertainty in ecosystem service assessments. These gaps may affect the reliability of assessment results and potentially lead to bias or even errors in decision-making. Our study conducted an uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization of the InVEST water yield model in the Qilian Mountains region. We identified sensitive parameters using a global sensitivity analysis and quantified the associated uncertainty using the Monte Carlo method. To optimize these parameters, we applied the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using runoff data from 2006 to 2018 in the trial subbasins. Additionally, we validated the robustness of the optimized parameters in other additional subbasins using runoff data from 2008 to 2018. The results revealed that parameters related to climatic factors (such as annual precipitation and annual reference evapotranspiration) were more sensitive than those influenced by both climate and human activities (such as the vegetation evapotranspiration coefficient). The uncertainty associated with the sensitive parameters was nearly equal to that associated with all the parameters combined, indicating that these sensitive parameters were the primary sources of overall uncertainty. Moreover, the estimated water yields obtained via the optimized parameters were generally closely related to the runoff data from the trial subbasins, especially the China meteorological forcing dataset/Penman-Monteith combination, which achieved an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.71. Additionally, validation in other subbasins confirmed the robustness and transferability of the optimized parameters. Nevertheless, the source and accuracy of these sensitive parameters are critical, and further validation in other regions is needed. This work underscores the importance of rigorous uncertainty analysis and parameter optimization in improving ecosystem service assessments for better decision-making.

Carbon Storage Response to Land Use/Land Cover Changes and SSP-RCP Scenarios Simulation: A Case Study in Yunnan Province, China

Changes in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (CS) affect the global carbon cycle, thereby influencing global climate change. Land use/land cover (LULC) shifts are key drivers of CS changes, making it crucial to predict their impact on CS for low-carbon development. Most studies model future LULC by adjusting change proportions, leading to overly subjective simulations. We integrated the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, and the Land Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset to simulate future LULC in Yunnan under different SSP-RCP scenarios of climate and economic development. Within the new PLUS-InVEST-LUH2 framework, we systematically analyzed LULC alterations and their effects on CS from 1980 to 2040. Results demonstrated that: (1) Forestland had the highest CS, whereas built-up land and water showed minimal levels. Western areas boast higher CS, while the east has lower. From 1980 to 2020, CS continuously decreased by 29.55 Tg. In the wake of population increase and economic advancement, the area of built-up land expanded by 2.75 times. Built-up land encroaches on other land categories and is a key cause of the reduction in CS. (2) From 2020 to 2040, mainly due to an increase in forestland, CS rose to 3934.65 Tg under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, whereas under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, primarily due to a reduction in forestland and grassland areas, CS declined to 3800.86 Tg. (3) Forestland is the primary contributor to CS, whereas the ongoing enlargement of built-up land is causing a sustained decline in CS. Scenario simulations indicate that future LULC changes under different scenarios will have a significant impact on CS in Yunnan. Under a green sustainable development pathway, Yunnan can exhibit significant carbon sink potential. Overall, this research offers a scientific reference for optimizing land management and sustainable development in Yunnan, aiding China's "double carbon" goals.

Interregional imbalance in the Yellow River Basin: Insights from flood-sediment transport, socioeconomic, and environmental subsystems

The ecological environment, resource endowment, and the level of socioeconomic development vary extensively amongst regions in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). To ensure the basin's sustainable development, the supply and demand relationship of ecosystem services (ESs) within the basin was analysed from the perspective of three subsystems: flood-sediment transport, socioeconomics, and ecological environment. The supply, demand, and the ratio of supply to demand of typical ESs were initially computed for 385 counties and districts within the YRB. These ESs included soil retention (SR), flood mitigation (FM), water yield (WY), crop supply (CrS), carbon sequestration (CS), and natural accessibility (NA). Correlations among ecosystem service supply-demand ratios (ESDRs) were completed and the spatial characteristics of the weighted multiple ESs supply-demand index (WMESI) were then investigated. Finally, the importance of WMESI driving factors were explored using extreme gradient boosting. Calculated for three subsystems in 385 counties and districts, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) indicated that: (i) ESDRs exhibit spatiotemporal heterogeneity, with FM and WY having relatively lower ESDRs; (ii) the trade-off and synergy relationships among ESDRs vary in a dynamic manner. In particular, a disruptive change in the relationship between the ESDR of SR and other ESDRs occurred in 2010; (iii) in the basin's downstream region, WMESI exhibits low-low clustering, with both population and precipitation having a significant impact on WMESI. Moreover, precipitation factors shifted significantly towards population factors; (iv) Overall, the CCD of 385 counties and districts in the YRB is low, and the spatial imbalance of CCD was mainly attributable to socioeconomic factors. The present research findings provide new insights into the sustainable governance of the YRB.

Climate and land use changes impact the trajectories of ecosystem service bundles in an urban agglomeration: Intricate interaction trends and driver identification under SSP-RCP scenarios

The delivery of ecosystem services (ESs), particularly in urban agglomerations, faces substantial threats from impending future climate change and human activity. Assessing ES bundles (ESBs) is critical to understanding the spatial allocation and interactions between multiple ESs. However, dynamic projections of ESBs under various future scenarios are still lacking, and their underlying driving mechanisms have received insufficient attention. This study examined the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration and proposed a framework that integrates patch-generating land use simulation into three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and clustering analysis to assess spatiotemporal variations in seven ESs and ESBs from 1990 to 2050. The spatial trajectories of ESBs were analyzed to identify fluctuating regions susceptible to SSP scenarios. The results indicated that (1) different scenarios exhibited different loss rates of regulating and supporting services, where the mitigation of degradation was most significant under SSP126. The comprehensive ES value was highest under SSP245. (2) Bundles 1 and 2 (dominated by regulating and supporting services) had the largest total proportion under SSP126 (51.92 %). The largest total proportion of Bundles 4 and 5 occurred under SSP585 (48.96 %), with the highest provisioning services. The SSP126 scenario was projected to have the least ESB fluctuation at the grid scale, while the most occurred under SSP585. (3) Notably, synergies between regulating/supporting services were weaker under SSP126 than under either SSP245 or SSP585, while trade-offs between water yield and non-provisioning services were strongest. (4) Forestland and grassland proportions significantly affected carbon sequestration and habitat quality. Climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) acted as the dominant drivers of provisioning services, particularly water yield. Our findings advocate spatial strategies for future regional ES management to address upcoming risks.

Assessing changes in the ecosystem service value in response to land use and land cover dynamics in Malawi

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are inevitable outcomes of socioeconomic changes and greatly affect ecosystem services. Our study addresses the critical gap in the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive national analysis of LULC changes and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in Malawi. We assessed changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) in response to LULC changes using the benefit transfer method in ArcGIS 10.6 software. Our findings revealed a significant increase in grasslands, croplands, and urban areas and a notable decline in forests, shrubs, wetlands, and water bodies. Grassland, cropland, and built-up areas expanded by 52%, 1%, and 23.2%, respectively. In contrast, permanent wetlands, barren land, and water bodies declined by 27.6%, 34.3%, and 1%, respectively. The ESV declined from US$90.87 billion in 2001 to US$85.60 billion in 2022, marking a 5.8% reduction. Provisioning services increased by 0.5% while regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem service functions declined by 12.2%, 3.16%, and 3.22%, respectively. The increase in provisioning services was due to the expansion of cropland. However, the loss of regulating, supporting, and cultural services was mainly due to the loss of natural ecosystems. Thus, environmental policy should prioritise the conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems to enhance the ESV of Malawi.

Integrating historical patterns and future trends for ecological management zone identification and validation: A case study in Beijing, China

Ecological management zones (EMZs) are pivotal in improving the management of ecosystem services (ESs) and promoting sustainable regional development. In this study, we developed a comprehensive framework aimed at identifying EMZs and substantiating their efficacy through the amalgamation of historical evolutionary patterns and future trends. We applied this framework to Beijing, China, and selected five vital ESs for the study area namely, water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS), habitat quality (HQ), soil conservation (SC) and water purification (WP). The framework involves two key components. Firstly, the identification of EMZs is based on the historical evolution of five types of ESs and the dynamic assessment of ES bundles. Subsequently, it enables a simulation of various scenarios to predict future alterations in land use and ESs, thereby validating the effectiveness of the identified EMZs. Our findings reveal notable spatial heterogeneity among different ESs, and that CS, HQ, SC, and WP exhibited synergies, while WY and showed trade-offs with the remaining four types of ESs. Based on an analysis of ES bundle evolution trajectories, we identified four types of EMZs: ecological conservation zone, ecological restoration zone, ecological transition zone and sustainable construction zone. Through strategic EMZ planning, it becomes possible to augment the area of forestland and grassland, alleviate the contradiction between arable land and construction land, and enhance the supply of various ESs. The proposed framework not only offers a novel perspective on the scientific management of ESs but also furnishes decision-makers and planners with an intuitive understanding of the tangible benefits associated with EMZ planning.

Identifying priority areas for conservation: using ecosystem services hotspot mapping for land-use/land-cover planning in central of Iran

The modeling and mapping of hotspots and coldspots ecosystem services (ESs) is an essential factor in the decision-making process for ESs conservation. Moreover, spatial prioritization is a serious stage in conservation planning. In the present research, based on the InVEST software, Getis-Ord statistics (Gi*), and a set of GIS methods, we quantified and mapped the variation and overlapping among three ESs (carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality). Furthermore, an approach was proffered for detecting priority areas to protect multiple ecosystem services. Hotspots recognized via the Gi* statistics technique contain a higher capacity for supplying ESs than other areas. This means that protecting these areas with a bigger number of overlapped hotspots can provide more services. Results indicated that population growth accompanied by the increase in construction sites and low-yield agricultural lands in the Zayanderood dam watershed basin has resulted in ES losses. This situation is represented by increasing soil erosion, reduced carbon storage, reduced biodiversity, and fragmented habitat distribution due to land-use change. The statistically significant carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality hotspots with above 95% confidence level account for 21.5%, 39.3%, and 16.9% of the study area, respectively. Therefore, a clear framework was presented in this study for setting ES-based conservation priority. Decision makers and land-use planners can also combine this technique into their framework to identify and conserve ES hotspots to support their targeted ecosystem policies.

Optimizing spatial patterns of ecosystem services in the Chang-Ji-Tu region (China) through Bayesian Belief Network and multi-scenario land use simulation

To foster an ecological civilization and ensure sustainable development of population resources, a critical focus of China's land spatial planning initiatives is the complex interplay among the prudent utilization of regional natural resources, stable socio-economic growth, and ecological environment preservation and governance. This interplay is vital for improving the population's quality of life, enhancing national resilience, and fostering the development of an ecological civilization. Within this context, this research focuses on the Chang-Ji-Tu region, employing a hybrid InVEST-Bayesian Belief Network-PLUS model. This approach facilitates a comprehensive assessment of habitat quality (HQ), carbon sequestration (CS), soil conservation (SC), crop production (CP), and total ecosystem services (TES) spanning 2005 to 2020, to optimize spatial structures based on these assessments. The findings indicate significant insights: (1) temporally, both HQ and CS exhibit an initial ascent followed by a subsequent decline, while SC demonstrates a rise, subsequent decrease, and then a gradual increase. CP shows a consistent increase, and TES initially decreases before experiencing a rise. Spatially, regions exhibiting high CP are primarily located in the northwest, in contrast to the southeast, demonstrating lower values. Conversely, HQ, CS, and SC exhibit lower values in the northwest and higher values in the southeast. TES exhibits considerable variability in the northwest and a more equilibrated distribution in the southeast. (2) A positive correlation is observed between land use/cover changes (LUCC) and HQ, CS, and SC, while a negative correlation is noted with CP and TES. (3) In exploring potential scenarios for economic development (ED), natural development (ND), and ecological protection (EP) in 2035, our study categorizes TES into distinct zones: ecological protection prohibited zones, ecological buffer prohibited zones, construction and development suitable zones, and restricted zones for arable land protection. This study, grounded in the current ecosystem status, thoroughly analyzes spatial structural optimization, offering crucial insights for future land spatial planning and ecological restoration.

Long-Term Effects of Ecological Restoration Projects on Ecosystem Services and Their Spatial Interactions: A Case Study of Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China

Ecological restoration projects aim to comprehensively intervene in damaged or deteriorating ecosystems, restore them, improve the provision of ecosystem services, and achieve harmonious coexistence between humans and nature. Implementing ecological restoration projects leads to continuous changes in land use/land cover. Studying the long-term changes in land use/land cover and their impacts on ecosystem services, as well as the trade-off and synergy between these services, helps evaluate the long-term effectiveness of ecological restoration projects in restoring ecosystems. Therefore, this study analyzes the land use/land cover, and ecosystem services of the Hainan Tropical Forest Park in China to address this. Since 2000, the area has undergone multiple ecological restoration projects, divided roughly into two stages: 2003-2013 and 2013-2021. The InVEST model is used to quantify three essential ecosystem services in mountainous regions (water yield, carbon storage, and soil conservation), and redundancy analysis identifies the primary driving factors influencing their changes. We conducted spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the interplay among ecosystem services under long-term land use/land cover change. The results indicate a decrease in the total supply of water yield (-5.14%) and carbon storage (-3.21%) in the first phase. However, the second phase shows an improvement in ecosystem services, with an increase in the total supply of water yield (11.45%), carbon storage (27.58%), and soil conservation (21.95%). The redundancy analysis results reveal that land use/land cover are the primary driving factors influencing the changes in ecosystem services. Furthermore, there is a shift in the trade-off and synergy between ecosystem services at different stages, with significant differences in spatial distribution. The findings of this study provide more spatially targeted suggestions for the restoration and management of tropical montane rainforests in the future.

Exploring the interrelations and driving factors among typical ecosystem services in the Yangtze river economic Belt, China

Exploring the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem services (ESs) and their drivers is crucial for managers to develop significant scientific policies that further sustainable development. We used the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to explore the trends, hotspots, and drivers of water yield (WY), soil conservation (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and food supply (FS) between 2000 and 2020. Similarly, we analyzed relationships among ESs and drivers of the multiple ecosystem services landscape index (MESLI). We used the self-organizing map method to obtain the types and distribution of the ES bundles, revealing the bundles, trade-offs, and synergies among ESs. The four ESs had an increasing trend, with CS having the highest increase; ES hotspot analysis showed differences among upper, middle, and lower reaches. Constraint lines among ESs and drivers were diverse; the corresponding SC and WY reached thresholds when CS values were 1477.81 and 460.5 t km-2, respectively. When FS values were 67.34 and 86.17 × 104 Yuan·km-2, CS and WY reached their thresholds. All critical drivers of the four ESs were natural factors. The thresholds that the MESLI reached with driver status were 1000 mm (evapotranspiration), 2121 mm (precipitation), 2.42° (slope), 1.46% (soil organic matter), 36.08% (sand), 30.75% (proportion of non-agricultural population), 18.57% (cropland proportion), 1.05 × 104 persons·km-2 (population density), and 84.84% (proportion of non-agricultural industries in total gross domestic product), respectively. FS, water supply, and ecological conservation bundles changed over the 20 years, and trade-offs and synergies among ESs within bundles differed. We revealed the complexity of ESs from multiple perspectives, which will enable the development of ecosystem management and conservation recommendations for the YREB and large-scale economic zones worldwide.

Analysis of future nitrogen and phosphorus loading in watershed and the risk of lake blooms under the influence of complex factors: Implications for management

For the management of eutrophic lakes, watershed nitrogen and phosphorus control is oriented to future water quality. Assessing future nutrient dynamics and the risk of lake eutrophication is necessary. However, current assessments often lack integrated consideration of socioeconomic and climatic factors, which reduces the reference value of the results. In this study, a typical large shallow lake Chaohu, which is highly influenced by human activities, was selected as the study area, and the current and future total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loading in the basin were analysed using the improved MARINA model, and the risk of water bloom were assessed. The results showed that socioeconomic factors alone varied future TN and TP loading by -24% to 32% and -40% to 34%, respectively, under different development patterns. After considering the effect of increased precipitation, the changes of TN and TP loading became -10% to 163% and -29% to 108%, respectively. The effect on loading reduction under the sustainable development pattern was weakened (58% and 28% for TN and TP loading, respectively) and the increase in loading under the brutal development pattern was significantly amplified (409% and 215% for TN and TP loading, respectively). The adoption of active environmental policies remained an effective way of loading control. However, the risk of water bloom in local lake areas might persist due to factors such as urbanization. Timely and comprehensive assessments can provide managers with more information to identify key factors that contribute to the risk of water blooms and to develop diverse water quality improvement measures. The insights from our study are applicable to other watersheds around the world with similar socio-economic background and climatic conditions.

Ecological response of an umbrella species to changing climate and land use: Habitat conservation for Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region, Southwestern China

Climate and land use changes are increasingly recognized as major threats to global biodiversity, with significant impacts on wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide. The study of how climate and land use changes impact wildlife is of paramount importance for advancing our understanding of ecological processes in the face of global environmental change, informing conservation planning and management, and identifying the mechanisms and thresholds that underlie species' responses to shifting climatic conditions. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is a prominent umbrella species in a biodiversity hotspot in Southwestern China, and its conservation is vital for safeguarding sympatric species. However, the extent to which this species' habitat may respond to global climate and land use changes is poorly understood, underscoring the need for further investigation. Our goal was to anticipate the potential impacts of upcoming climate and land use changes on the distribution and dispersal patterns of the Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. We used MaxEnt modeling to evaluate habitat vulnerability using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios of climate and land use changes. Subsequently, we used Circuit Theory to identify prospective dispersal paths. Our results revealed that the current area of suitable habitat for the Asiatic black bear was 225,609.59 km2 (comprising 39.69% of the total study area), but was expected to decrease by -53.1%, -49.48%, and -28.55% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projection scenarios, respectively. Across all three GCMs, the distribution areas and dispersal paths of the Asiatic black bear were projected to shift to higher altitudes and constrict by the 2070s. Furthermore, the results indicated that the density of dispersal paths would decrease, while the resistance to dispersal would increase across the study area. In order to protect the Asiatic black bear, it is essential to prioritize the protection of climate refugia and dispersal paths. Our findings provide a sound scientific foundation for the allocation of such protected areas in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region that are both effective and adaptive in the face of ongoing global climate and land use changes.