Disentangling the effects of phosphorus loading on food web stability in a large shallow lake

Explaining variations in the stability of the ecosystem of the largest fresh lake in China from 2013 to 2023

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China. In recent years, the stability of the lake's ecosystem has been challenged by climate change and human activities. It is important to study changes in the lake to understand how to maintain the health of the lake ecosystem. To date, individual factors have been used to support studies of the lake's stability. However, these studies are inadequate because they fail to provide quantitative information for multiple factors. In this study, we innovatively proposed a method for quantifying the lake stability that considered multiple habitat and biotic factors, thereby advancing our understanding of the drivers influencing changes in lake stability. We analyzed monitoring data from Poyang Lake for long-term changes in the stability and used structural equation modeling to quantitatively assess the main influences on the lake stability. Our results showed that the ecosystem stability index of Poyang Lake decreased by 12.3 % from 2013 to 2023, which indicates that the stability of the lake gradually declined. We further found that zooplankton, phytoplankton, and ammonium nitrogen were the main causes of the decline in the lake stability. The method utilized in this study can assist lake managers in analyzing the effects of environmental changes on lake stability, facilitate the rapid identification of key factors influencing stability variations, and provide a scientific basis for assessing the ecological health of lake waters.

Ecological threshold of phosphorus load in Baiyangdian Lake based on a PCLake model and ecological network analysis

Ecological thresholds are a useful indicator for implementing ecological management. Many studies determine the thresholds for nutrient loads in lakes based on the maximum allowable concentration of chlorophyll a (Chla), although this neglects the overall performance of the ecosystem. A PCLake model of Baiyangdian (BYD) Lake in northern China was constructed with six ecological network analysis (ENA) indicators that characterized the ecosystem function, system maturity, and food web structure to quantify the overall status of the BYD ecosystem. To my knowledge, this is the first study on the system level responses of the BYD Lake to phosphorus load interference. Different phosphorus load scenarios were designed to simulate the ecological responses of BYD Lake. The simulated results were employed to calculate the ENA indicators. Ecological thresholds were determined through the driving response relationship between the phosphorus load gradient and the ENA indicators. The results show a non-linear transition response of ENA indicator under phosphorus load gradient. As phosphorus load increases, D/H, SOI, and FCI decreases while A/DC, TPP/TR, and TPP/TB increases. This indicates that the overall structure and function of the ecosystem will deteriorate if phosphorus load increases. The phosphorus load thresholds for the overall performance of BYD Lake were 0.50-1.32 mg m-2 d-1, slightly wider than that of Chla (0.53-1.26 mg m-2 d-1). The model results clearly indicate that there is a time-lag phenomenon at the switch points in the response of ENA indicators compared to that of single functional group. In addition, the A/DC, TPP/TR, SOI, and FCI present more time-lag than that of other ENA indicators. These time-lag effects provide a particular opportunity for biodiversity conservation. Therefore, a possible management strategy is proposed to combine system-level and function group-level thresholds, with the ENA-based threshold as the bottom line and the phytoplankton's threshold as the early-warning indicator. This design is expected to be more precise and efficient, by exploiting the advantages of two thresholds, and may benefit for ecological management practices.

Community ecological response to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Baiyangdian Lake based on an ecological model

The dynamic response of a single population to chemicals can be represented by a Weibull function. However, it is unclear whether the overall response can still be represented in this manner when scaled up to the community level. In this study, we investigated the responses of biological communities to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons by using an ecological model of Baiyangdian Lake in northern China. The community dynamics process was divided into the following three stages. In the first stage, toxicity, played a dominant role and strong, medium, and weak species responses were observed according to the toxicity sensitivity. In the second stage, the dynamic process was dominated by the interaction strength with three alternative dynamic pathways comprising of direct response, no response, or inverse response. In the third stage, the toxicity was again dominant, and the biomasses of all species decreased to extinction. The toxicological dynamics were far more complex at the community level than those at the single species level and they were also influenced by the interaction strength as well as toxicity. The toxicological dynamic process in the community was constantly driven by the competing effects of these two forces. In addition to the total biomass, the interaction strength was identified as a suitable community-level signal because it exhibited good indicator properties regarding ecosystem steady-state transitions. However, we found that food web stability indicators were not suitable for use as community-level signals because they were not sensitive to changes in the ecosystem state. Some ecological management suggestions have been proposed, including medium to long-term monitoring, and reduction of external pollution loads and bioindicators. The results obtained in this study increase our understanding of how chemicals interfere with community dynamics, and the interaction strength and total biomass were identified as useful holistic indicators.