Development and validation of a new prognostic score of death for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in palliative setting

Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and palliative care: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have specific palliative care needs owing to the influence of the disease on abdominal pain, jaundice, bleeding, appetite, ascites, liver function and hepatic encephalopathy. This research would help develop care models and identify knowledge gaps in the field.

AIMS

To identify the palliative care needs and experiences of patients with advanced HCC.

METHODS

CINAHL, EMBASE and MEDLINE were used to search English literature from January 1998 to March 2022 for 'Palliative care' and 'Hepatocellular cancer' using precise inclusion and exclusion criteria.

RESULTS

The retrieves identified 2710 records, including 33 studies used in our research. Two additional studies were grey items. Among 35 studies, 13 studies were performed in Asia, 11 studies in North America, 8 studies in Europe and 3 studies in Australia. Quantitative investigations were mostly descriptive or observational. Eight studies were conducted on a national scale, while two were in specific regions. 20 studies were conducted by a single institution. 22 studies focused only on patients, 2 on family caregivers and 2 on healthcare professionals. 2 more studies concentrated on patients and family caregivers, while 6 concentrated on patients and healthcare professionals.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping study illustrates the complexity of advanced HCC treatment and challenges in modern healthcare systems. Formulating appropriate referral criteria, integrating and coordinating care, and assessing care contents are crucial. To enhance the treatment of patients with advanced HCC, it is important to understand the relationships between research and service design across teams, disciplines and care settings.

AutoScore-Survival: Developing interpretable machine learning-based time-to-event scores with right-censored survival data

BACKGROUND

Scoring systems are highly interpretable and widely used to evaluate time-to-event outcomes in healthcare research. However, existing time-to-event scores are predominantly created ad-hoc using a few manually selected variables based on clinician's knowledge, suggesting an unmet need for a robust and efficient generic score-generating method.

METHODS

AutoScore was previously developed as an interpretable machine learning score generator, integrating both machine learning and point-based scores in the strong discriminability and accessibility. We have further extended it to the time-to-event outcomes and developed AutoScore-Survival, for generating time-to-event scores with right-censored survival data. Random survival forest provided an efficient solution for selecting variables, and Cox regression was used for score weighting. We implemented our proposed method as an R package. We illustrated our method in a study of 90-day survival prediction for patients in intensive care units and compared its performance with other survival models, the random survival forest, and two traditional clinical scores.

RESULTS

The AutoScore-Survival-derived scoring system was more parsimonious than survival models built using traditional variable selection methods (e.g., penalized likelihood approach and stepwise variable selection), and its performance was comparable to survival models using the same set of variables. Although AutoScore-Survival achieved a comparable integrated area under the curve of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.767-0.794), the integer-valued time-to-event scores generated are favorable in clinical applications because they are easier to compute and interpret.

CONCLUSIONS

Our proposed AutoScore-Survival provides a robust and easy-to-use machine learning-based clinical score generator to studies of time-to-event outcomes. It gives a systematic guideline to facilitate the future development of time-to-event scores for clinical applications.

Colon Rectal Liver Metastases: The Role of the Liver Transplantation in the Era of the Transplant Oncology and Precision Medicine

The development of liver metastases in colon rectal cancer has a strong impact on the overall survival (OS) of the patient, with a 5-year survival rate of 5% with palliative treatment. Surgical resection combined with pharmacological treatment can achieve a 5-year OS rate of 31-58%. However, in only 20% of patients with colon rectal liver metastases (CRLMs), liver resection is feasible. In highly selected patients, recent trials and studies proved that liver transplantation (LT) for non-resectable CRLM is a surgical option with an excellent long-term OS. The paper aims to review the indications and outcome of LT for CRLMs, with a special focus on immunosuppressive therapy and the management of local and extrahepatic recurrence after LT.

Overview of Prognostic Systems for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and ITA.LI.CA External Validation of MESH and CNLC Classifications

Prognostic assessment in patients with HCC remains an extremely difficult clinical task due to the complexity of this cancer where tumour characteristics interact with degree of liver dysfunction, patient general health status, and a large span of available treatment options. Several prognostic systems have been proposed in the last three decades, both from the Asian and European/North American countries. Prognostic scores, such as the CLIP score and the recent MESH score, have been generated on a solid statistical basis from real life population data, while staging systems, such as the BCLC scheme and the recent CNLC classification, have been created by experts according to recent HCC prognostic evidences from the literature. A third category includes combined prognostic systems that can be used both as prognostic scores and staging systems. A recent example is the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system including either a prognostic score and a simplified staging system. This review focuses first on an overview of the main prognostic systems for HCC classified according to the above three categories, and, second, on a comprehensive description of the methodology required for a correct comparison between different systems in terms of prognostic performance. In this second section the main studies in the literature comparing different prognostic systems are described in detail. Lastly, a formal comparison between the last prognostic systems proposed for each of the above three categories is performed using a large Italian database including 6882 HCC patients in order to concretely apply the comparison rules previously described.

Predictors, Presentation, and Treatment Outcomes of Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: A Large Single Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is an accepted therapeutic option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhosis. Despite careful candidate selection, HCC recurrence occurs. We aimed to describe the predictors of recurrence, clinical presentation, and predictors of survival after HCC recurrence post-LT.

METHODS

Patients with recurrent HCC after LT between January 1996 and December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed.

RESULTS

Of 711 patients, 96 (13.5%) patients had post-LT HCC recurrence. The median time to recurrence was 17.1 months, and the median survival was 10.1 months. Initial recurrence was more often in the graft (34.4%), and most (60.4%) had multiple recurrent lesions, and 26% were in multiple sites. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with shorter survival were poorly differentiated histology in explant (Hazard ratio [HR] = 1.96; p = 0.027), bilirubin ≥1.2 mg/dL (HR = 2.47; p = 0.025), and albumin <3.5 mg/dL (HR = 2.13; p = 0.014) at recurrence, alpha-fetoprotein at recurrence ≥ 1000 ng/mL (HR = 2.96; p = 0.005), and peritoneal disease (HR = 3.20; p = 0.022). There was an increased survival in patients exposed to sirolimus (HR = 0.32; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Recurrent HCC after LT is often in extrahepatic sites with a decreased survival in those with poorly differentiated explant pathology, high bilirubin, low albumin, marked elevation of alpha-fetoprotein at recurrence, and peritoneal recurrence. Sirolimus-based immunosuppression may provide benefit.

The association between pretreatment serum alkaline phosphatase and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have investigated the association between pretreatment serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but conclusions remain controversial. Thus, we performed a meta-analysis to assess systematically the relationship between ALP and prognosis in HCC.

METHODS

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases for eligible studies up to October. A combined hazard ratio (HR) was determined to describe the correlation between pretreatment serum ALP level and prognosis in HCC patients. Overall survival (OS) was calculated from the date of treatment either to the end point of the follow-up period or to the date of death by any cause. Disease-free survival (DFS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were defined as the period from the date of treatment to the date of last follow-up or to the date of recurrence. OS was regarded as the major outcome.

RESULTS

Altogether, 21 studies about OS and 6 studies about DFS/RFS were included in this meta-analysis. Our combined results showed that there was an inverse association of pretreatment serum ALP level with OS (HR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.12-1.19) and RFS (HR=1.78, 95% CI: 1.37-2.31).

CONCLUSION

There was a close association between high pretreatment ALP level and poor survival in HCC patients, indicating that ALP may be used as a biomarker for prognosis. More high-quality studies are required to validate our findings further, considering the limitations of our meta-analysis.

Sorafenib alone vs. sorafenib plus GEMOX as 1st-line treatment for advanced HCC: the phase II randomised PRODIGE 10 trial

BACKGROUND

Sorafenib remains one major first-line therapeutic options for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC), with modest efficacy. We investigated the addition of gemcitabine and oxaliplatin (GEMOX) to sorafenib in aHCC patients.

METHODS

Our multicentre phase II trial randomised aHCC first-line patients to sorafenib (400 mg BID) or sorafenib-GEMOX every 2 weeks (1000 mg/m² gemcitabine; 100 mg/m² oxaliplatin). Primary endpoint was the 4-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate.

RESULTS

Ninety-four patients were randomised (sorafenib-GEMOX: n = 48; sorafenib: n = 46). Median age was 64 years, PS 0 (69%) or 1 (31%), 63% patients had cirrhosis, 29% portal vein thrombosis and 70% extra-hepatic disease. Median duration of sorafenib treatment was 4 months (1-51); median number of GEMOX cycles was 7 (1-16). The 4-month PFS rates were 64% and 61% in the sorafenib-GEMOX and sorafenib arms, respectively; median PFS and OS were 6.2 (95% CI: 3.8-6.8) and 13.5 (7.5-16.2) months, and 4.6 (3.9-6.2) months and 14.8 (12.2-22.2), respectively. The ORR/DCR were 9%/70% and 15%/77% in the sorafenib-GEMOX and sorafenib alone arms, respectively. Main toxicities were (sorafenib-GEMOX/sorafenib) neutropenia (23%/0), thrombocytopenia (33%/0), diarrhoea (18%/9), peripheral neuropathy (5%/0) and hand-foot syndrome (5%/18).

CONCLUSIONS

Addition of GEMOX had an inpact on ORR and was well-tolerated as frontline systemic therapy. The benefit on PFS seems moderate; no subsequent study was planned.

Prognostic role of noninvasive liver reserve markers in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

Background

Various noninvasive liver reserve markers were proposed to indicate the severity of liver damage. However, the role and feasibility of these markers to predict the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are unknown. We aimed to identify the prognostic role of the 8 currently used hepatic reserve markers in patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

Methods

Between 2002 and 2013, a total of 881 patients with HCC undergoing TACE were prospectively identified and retrospectively analyzed. The baseline characteristics, tumor status and noninvasive markers were collected. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criteria (AICc) were compared between these markers. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent predictors of survival.

Results

Significant differences in survival distribution were found for albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class, Lok index, fibrosis index based on 4 factors (FIB-4), Göteborg University cirrhosis index (GUCI), cirrhosis discriminant index (CDI) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (all p values <0.05). Among these markers, the ALBI grade showed the highest homogeneity and lowest AICc value, indicating a better prognostic performance. Cox multivariate analysis confirmed that ALBI grade 2, ascites, serum alkaline phosphatase and α-fetoprotein level, tumor diameter, vascular invasion and performance status were significant independent prognostic predictors. The distribution of the ALBI score well correlated with baseline CTP and MLED scores.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that among the currently used liver reserve markers, ALBI grade may serve as an objective and feasible surrogate to predict the prognosis of HCC patients undergoing TACE.

Prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma: Assessment of eleven staging systems

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Multiple staging systems have been proposed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However there is no consensus regarding which system provides the best prognostic accuracy. We aimed to investigate the performance of 11 currently used HCC staging systems.

METHODS

Between 2002 and 2013, a large prospective dataset of 3182 HCC patients were enrolled. The baseline characteristics and staging information were collected. Independent predictors of survival were identified. Homogeneity and corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) were compared between each system.

RESULTS

The median follow-up duration was 17months. Independent predictors of adverse outcome were serum albumin <3.5g/dl, bilirubin ⩾1mg/dl, creatinine ⩾1mg/dl, alpha-fetoprotein ⩾20ng/ml, alkaline phosphatase ⩾200IU/L, presence of ascites, multiple tumor nodules, maximal tumor size >5cm, presence of vascular invasion, presence of extrahepatic metastasis, and poor performance status (all p<0.001). Significant differences in survival were found across all stages of the 11 systems except between Hong Kong Liver Cancer stage IV and V, Japan Integrated Staging score 4 and 5, and Tokyo score 5 through 8. The Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score was associated with the highest homogeneity and lowest AICc value in the entire cohort. In subgroup analysis, the CLIP score was also superior in patients with hepatitis B- or hepatitis C-related HCC and in patients receiving curative or non-curative treatments.

CONCLUSIONS

The CLIP staging system is stable and consistently the best prognostic model in all patients and in patients with different viral etiology and treatment strategy.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Extrahepatic Metastasis in Relation to Tumor Size and Alkaline Phosphatase Levels

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is known to metastasize. However, there are few reports on patients with metastasis at the time of HCC diagnosis.

AIMS

To evaluate the incidence and characteristics of extrahepatic metastasis patients presenting at baseline with noncurable, advanced HCC.

RESULTS

The total HCC cohort was initially dichotomized into 2 subcohorts, with (n = 214) and without (n = 719) extrahepatic metastasis ('metastasis'), and patient baseline characteristics were compared. The main findings for patients with metastasis (22.9% of total cohort) compared with other, nonmetastatic patients were: more advanced tumors, as judged by larger tumor diameters, more tumor multifocality and percent with portal vein thrombosis, higher blood α-fetoprotein and des x03B3;-carboxy prothrombin levels and alkaline phosphatase (ALKP), but not bilirubin levels, and a lower incidence of cirrhosis. There was a strong correlation between increases in tumor size and percent of patients with metastasis. A subset of patients with larger tumors was identified with low blood ALKP levels and better survival. Survival in the total metastasis cohort was lower than in the non-metastasis cohort, as expected, but only in patients with smaller tumors. In patients with larger tumors, survival with or without metastasis was similar and poor.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a lower incidence of cirrhosis in HCC patients with metastasis, and they had larger and more aggressive primary tumors. Patients with smaller, but not larger, tumors and metastasis had worse prognosis than patients without metastasis. A distinct subset of metastatic patients was identified that had better prognosis and low ALKP levels.

Staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma: Current status and future perspectives

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major health concern worldwide and the third cause of cancer-related death. Despite advances in treatment as well as careful surveillance programs, the mortality rates in most countries are very high. In contrast to other cancers, the prognosis and treatment of HCC depend on the tumor burden in addition to patient’s underlying liver disease and liver functional reserve. Moreover, there is considerable geographic and institutional variation in both risk factors attributable to the underlying liver diseases and the management of HCC. Therefore, although many staging and/or scoring systems have been proposed, there is currently no globally accepted system for HCC due to the extreme heterogeneity of the disease. The aim of this review is to focus on currently available staging systems as well as those newly reported in the literatures since 2012. Moreover, we describe problems with currently available staging systems and attempts to modify and/or add variables to existing staging systems.

Optimal cut points for quality of life questionnaire-core 30 (QLQ-C30) scales: utility for clinical trials and updates of prognostic systems in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Health-related quality of life (QoL) has been validated as a prognostic factor for cancer patients; however, to be used in routine practice, QoL scores must be dichotomized. Cutoff points are usually based on arbitrary percentile values. We aimed to identify optimal cutoff points for six QoL scales and to quantify their added utility in the performance of four prognostic classifications in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

We reanalyzed data of 271 patients with advanced HCC recruited between July 2002 and October 2003 from 79 institutions in France in the CHOC trial, designed to assess the efficacy of long-acting octreotide. QoL was assessed with the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 (QLQ-C30). The scores ranged from 0 to 100. Identification of optimal cutoff points was based on the method of Faraggi and Simon [Stat Med 1996;15:2203-2213]. Improvement in the performance of prognostic classifications was studied with Harrell's C-index, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

We found that optimal cutoff points were 50 for global health, 58.33 for physical functioning, 66.67 for role functioning, 66.67 for fatigue, 0 for dyspnea, and 33.33 for diarrhea. The addition of QoL and clinical factors improved the performance of all four prognostic classifications, with improvement in the range of 0.02-0.09 for the C-index, 0.24-0.78 for 3-month NRI, and 0.02-0.10 for IDI.

CONCLUSION

These cutoff values for QoL scales can be useful to identify HCC patients with very poor prognosis and thus improve design of clinical trials and treatment adjustment for these patients.

Long-term follow-up of TaG1 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

OBJECTIVES

To retrospectively assess the long-term outcome of patients initially diagnosed with TaG1 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) with no immediate postoperative instillation of intravesical chemotherapy and evaluate the reproducibility of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) scoring system for predicting bladder cancer outcome.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A retrospective analysis of 481 consecutive cases of initially diagnosed TaG1 NMIBC according to the 1973 World Health Organization classification between 1995 and 2008 in a single institution was performed. Time to first recurrence, time to progression to T1 or G3 bladder cancer, and time to progression to muscle-invasive bladder cancer were studied. Time to event distributions was estimated by means of cumulative incidence functions to accurately take into account the patients who died (competing risk) before recurrence or progression. The Harrell c statistic calculation was used for our study's data results as well the original data from EORTC to compare the predictive power of a survival model.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 88 months (interquartile range: 51-135 mo). The 10-year recurrence-free, T1 or G3 NMIBC progression-free, and muscle-invasive bladder cancer progression-free survival rates were 64.2%, 96.6%, and 97%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, tumor size and number of lesions were prognostic variables of the risk of recurrence. In our study and EORTC data sets, the Harrell c values obtained were c = 0.85 (95% CI: [0.75, 0.93]) and c = 0.85 (95% CI: [0.75, 0.93]), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our study reports a detailed and extensive outcome of TaG1 NMIBC treated by TURB with no immediate postoperative intravesical instillation of chemotherapy. Our results suggest that the EORTC is a useful external validation scoring system for predicting bladder cancer outcome.

Could baseline health-related quality of life (QoL) predict overall survival in metastatic colorectal cancer? The results of the GERCOR OPTIMOX 1 study

Background

Health-related quality of life (QoL) has prognostic value in many cancers. A recent study found that the performance of prognostic systems for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) were improvable. We evaluated the independent prognostic value of QoL for overall survival (OS) and its ability to improve two prognostic systems’performance (Köhne and GERCOR models) for patients with mCRC.

Methods

The EQ-5D questionnaire was self-completed before randomization in the OPTIMOX1, a phase III trial comparing two strategies of FOLFOX chemotherapy which included 620 previously untreated mCRC patients recruited from January 2000 to June 2002 from 56 institutions in five countries. The improvement in models’ performance (after addition of QoL) was studied with Harrell’s C-index and the net reclassification improvement.

Results

Of the 620 patients, 249 (40%) completed QoL datasets. The Köhne model could be improved by LDH, mobility and pain/discomfort; the C-index rose from 0.54 to 0.67. The associated NRI for 12-month death was 0.23 [0.05; 0.46]. Mobility and pain/discomfort could be added to the GERCOR model: the C-index varied from 0.63 to 0.68. The NRI for 12 months death was 0.35 [0.12; 0.44].

Conclusions

Mobility and pain dimensions of EQ5D are independent prognostic factors and could be useful for staging and treatment assignment of mCRC patients. Presented at the 2011 ASCO Annual Meeting (#3632).

The added value of quality of life (QoL) for prognosis of overall survival in patients with palliative hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several prognostic classifications (PCs) have been developed for use in palliative care in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We have recently suggested that CLIP combined with WHO PS has the greatest discriminative power. We evaluated the prognostic value of quality of life (QoL) data and whether the latter could improve classification of palliative HCC patients.

METHODS

This was a reanalysis from the CHOC trial with an evaluation of the discriminative power for overall survival (OS) of the established CLIP/GRETCH/BCLC/BoBar prognostic systems alone and then in association with each of the following groups of parameters: selected clinical factors, QoL as continuous variables, dichotomized QoL, selected clinical factors and continuous QoL, selected clinical factors and dichotomized QoL. Baseline QoL was assessed using the EORTC QLQ-C30. Discriminative power was evaluated with the Harrell's C-index and net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

Quality of life was available in 79% of the patients (n=271). Univariate analysis revealed that better role functioning (HR=0.991 [0.987-0.995]) and better physical functioning (0.991 [0.984-0.997]) scores were associated with longer survival. In contrast, poorer score for fatigue (1.011 [1.006-1.015]) and diarrhoea (1.008 [1.002-1.013]) were associated with shorter survival. After adjustment for clinical and sociodemographic variables, only better role functioning score (0.993 [0.988-0.998]) was associated with longer survival. Adding oedema, hepatomegaly, fatigue and diarrhoea QoL scales to CLIP resulted in the best performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm that QoL scales are independent prognostic factors of OS in palliative HCC patients. Incorporation of QoL data improved all the studied PCs.

Gemcitabine plus oxaliplatin in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a large multicenter AGEO study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The current standard treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is sorafenib. This drug is effective but generally does not induce tumor shrinkage and other treatment options are still needed.

METHODS

This retrospective multicenter study included all consecutive patients with advanced HCC treated with gemcitabine and oxaliplatin (GEMOX) between 2001 and 2010. Survival curves were drawn with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to evaluate prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Two hundred four consecutive patients were treated with GEMOX (median age, 60 years; men, 86%; underlying cirrhosis, 76%). Grade 3-4 toxicity was observed in 44% of the patients (thrombocytopenia 24%, neutropenia 18%, diarrhea 14%, neurotoxicity 12%) leading to treatment discontinuation in 16% of the cases. The overall response and disease control rates were 22% (95% CI, 16-27) and 66% (95% CI, 59-72), respectively. No clinical or biological factors were associated with the treatment response, and 8.5% of the patients were subsequently eligible for curative-intent therapies after downstaging. Median PFS, TTP, and OS were 4.5 (95% CI, 4-6), 8 (95% CI, 6-11), and 11 months (95% CI, 9-14), respectively. In multivariate analysis, gender (p=0.03), underlying cirrhosis (p=0.01), CLIP score (p=0.03), and response to GEMOX (p<0.0001) were independently associated with OS.

CONCLUSIONS

This large study confirms that GEMOX is effective with manageable toxicity in patients with advanced HCC. Tumor responses permitted potentially curative treatment that was not initially feasible in a significant proportion of patients.

Prognosis of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients enrolled in clinical trials can be classified by current staging systems

Background:

Patients enrolled in clinical trials of advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are usually required to have good liver reserve and organ function. However, their outcomes are still highly variable. We aimed to examine whether current staging systems can predict the survival of these highly selected patients.

Methods:

Patients from clinical trials involving first-line anti-angiogenic therapy were assigned to different stage groups using the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), China integrated score, Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score, Chinese University Prognostic Index (CUPI), Groupe d’Etude et de Traitement du Carcinome Hepatocellulaire (GETCH), Japan Integrated Staging (JIS) score, Okuda, Tokyo score, and a new staging system recently proposed. Survival prediction by the 10 systems was then compared by both univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results:

A total of 157 patients were selected for this study. In univariate analysis, all staging systems can predict patient survival except AJCC, BCLC, and JIS score. Concordance indexes for CLIP score, CUPI, and GETCH (0.752, 0.775, and 0.791, respectively) were significantly higher than those obtained for other staging systems. In multivariate analysis, the CLIP score and CUPI (P<0.001 and 0.009, respectively) predicted survival more accurately than did the other tested staging systems. Hepatitis B infection and poor performance status were also associated with poor survival.

Conclusion:

Several HCC staging systems, especially the CLIP score and CUPI, can predict prognosis of patients who are enrolled in clinical trials of advanced HCC.

Prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. Validation and ranking of established staging-systems in a large western HCC-cohort

Background

HCC is diagnosed in approximately half a million people per year, worldwide. Staging is a more complex issue than in most other cancer entities and, mainly due to unique geographic characteristics of the disease, no universally accepted staging system exists to date. Focusing on survival rates we analyzed demographic, etiological, clinical, laboratory and tumor characteristics of HCC-patients in our institution and applied the common staging systems. Furthermore we aimed at identifying the most suitable of the current staging systems for predicting survival.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Overall, 405 patients with HCC were identified from an electronic medical record database. The following seven staging systems were applied and ranked according to their ability to predict survival by using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the concordance-index (c-index): BCLC, CLIP, GETCH, JIS, Okuda, TNM and Child-Pugh. Separately, every single variable of each staging system was tested for prognostic meaning in uni- and multivariate analysis. Alcoholic cirrhosis (44.4%) was the leading etiological factor followed by viral hepatitis C (18.8%). Median survival was 18.1 months (95%-CI: 15.2–22.2). Ascites, bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, AFP, number of tumor nodes and the BCLC tumor extension remained independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis. Overall, all of the tested staging systems showed a reasonable discriminatory ability. CLIP (closely followed by JIS) was the top-ranked score in terms of prognostic capability with the best values of the AIC and c-index (AIC 2286, c-index 0.71), surpassing other established staging systems like BCLC (AIC 2343, c-index 0.66). The unidimensional scores TNM (AIC 2342, c-index 0.64) and Child-Pugh (AIC 2369, c-index 0.63) performed in an inferior fashion.

Conclusions/Significance

Compared with six other staging systems, the CLIP-score was identified as the most suitable staging system for predicting prognosis in a large German cohort of predominantly non-surgical HCC-patients.

Simplified prognostic model in patients with oxaliplatin-based or irinotecan-based first-line chemotherapy for metastatic colorectal cancer: a GERCOR study

BACKGROUND

The present study was done to establish a prognostic model for patients and trials using an oxaliplatin-based or irinotecan-based first-line chemotherapy in metastatic colorectal cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Eight hundred three patients treated with FOLFOX or FOLFIRI in three prospective trials were randomly separated into learning (n = 535) and validation (n = 268) samples. Eleven baseline variables were evaluated in univariate and multivariate analysis as prognostic factors for overall survival, and a prognostic score was developed.

RESULTS

Independent prognostic factors identified in multivariate analysis for overall survival were performance status (PS) (p < .001), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (p < .001), and number of metastatic sites (p = .005). A prognostic score based on these three variables was found efficient (Harrell's C index 0.61). This new model was improved by selecting only PS and LDH (Harrell's C index 0.64). Three risk groups for death could be identified: a low-risk group (n = 184; median overall survival [OS] 29.8 months), an intermediate-risk group (n = 223; median OS 19.5 months), and a high-risk group (n = 128; median OS 13.9 months). Median survival for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups were 26.8, 21.1, and 16.5 months, respectively, in the validation sample (Harrell's C index 0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum LDH level was the main prognostic factor in predicting survival, followed by WHO PS. We identified three risk groups for death depending on these two baseline parameters. This simple prognostic model can be useful for clinician's use and patient stratification in future clinical trials.