External validation of aMAP risk score in patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 4 and cirrhosis who achieved SVR following DAAs

Assessing the Predictive Accuracy of the aMAP Risk Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC): Diagnostic Test Accuracy and Meta-analysis

Purpose

We aimed to perform a meta-analysis with the intention of evaluating the reliability and test accuracy of the aMAP risk score in the identification of HCC.

Methods

A systematic search was performed in PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, Embase, and Web of Science databases from inception to September 2023, to identify studies measuring the aMAP score in patients for the purpose of predicting the occurrence or recurrence of HCC. The meta-analysis was performed using the meta package in R version 4.1.0. The diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis was conducted using Meta-DiSc software.

Results

Thirty-five studies 102,959 participants were included in the review. The aMAP score was significantly higher in the HCC group than in the non-HCC group, with a mean difference of 6.15. When the aMAP score is at 50, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative likelihood ratio, and positive likelihood ratio with 95% CI was 0.961 (95% CI 0.936, 0.976), 0.344 (95% CI 0.227, 0.483), 0.114 (95% CI 0.087, 0.15), and 1.464 (95% CI 1.22, 1.756), respectively. At a cutoff value of 60, the pooled sensitivity, specificity, negative likelihood ratio, and positive likelihood ratio with 95% CI was 0.594 (95% CI 0.492, 0.689), 0.816 (95% CI 0.714, 0.888), 0.497 (95% CI 0.418, 0.591), and 3.235 (95% CI 2.284, 4.582), respectively.

Conclusion

The aMAP score is a reliable, accurate, and easy-to-use tool for predicting HCC patients of all stages, including early-stage HCC. Therefore, the aMAP score can be a valuable tool for surveillance of HCC patients and can help to improve early detection and reduce mortality.

Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Portuguese Population after Hepatitis C Cure: Comparative Accuracy of Noninvasive Tests (Transient Elastography, FIB-4, and aMAP)

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes 25% of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases worldwide, a major cause of morbimortality even after sustained virologic response (SVR). Universal screening to all patients with advanced liver fibrosis is currently recommended. A risk-based strategy could improve the detection rate of early HCC and diminish the surveillance burden. Although several risk prediction models exist, exclusion of a subgroup of patients from surveillance has not yet been recommended. The objective of this study was the comparison of the predictive accuracy of transient elastography, FIB-4, and aMAP for HCC in HCV patients after SVR in Portugal. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> This was a multicentric retrospective study including patients with HCV after SVR. Comparative, univariate, multivariate, area under the ROC (receiver-operating characteristic) curve (AUC), and Youden’s J-statistic analysis were performed. <b><i>Results:</i></b> HCC incidence was 4.2% (1.3/100 patient-years) after a median follow-up of 31 months with inclusion of 337 patients. All patients had a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) before SVR (considered the baseline), but only 148 (43.9%) had a transient elastography after SVR. FIB-4 and aMAP post-SVR were calculated in all patients. Multiple parameters positively correlated with HCC, but only age and baseline transient elastography remained as independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. The optimal cutoffs for prediction of HCC were baseline transient elastography 13.7 kPa, post-SVR transient elastography 16.5 and 15.8 kPa (first and last measurements, respectively), FIB-4 1.6, and aMAP 58. Baseline transient elastography revealed a fair accuracy in predicting HCC (AUC 0.776, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.001), with the cutoff of 13.7 kPa presenting a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 69%. Regarding patients who were F3–4 at baseline (<i>n</i> = 162), almost one-third had a baseline LSM ≤13.7 kPa (<i>n</i> = 51, 31.5%), an FIB-4 ≤1.6 (<i>n</i> = 50, 30.9%), and an aMAP score ≤58 (<i>n</i> = 48, 29.6%), and these cutoffs presented an NPV of 98%, 94%, and 96%, respectively, when considering HCC development. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Transient elastography (FibroScan) before SVR was a fair predictor of HCC, being more accurate than FIB-4 and aMAP. Transient elastography values ≤13.7 kPa at baseline, FIB-4 ≤1.6 and aMAP ≤58 were the cutoffs considered of low risk for HCC in a Portuguese cohort of HCV patients after SVR with advanced fibrosis. aMAP score is a risk-based surveillance tool that could improve the current HCC screening strategy, but further validation is needed.

The Age-Male-Albumin-Bilirubin-Platelets (aMAP) Risk Score Predicts Liver Metastasis Following Surgery for Breast Cancer in Chinese Population: A Retrospective Study

Objective

The current study is conducted to investigate the potential prognostic value of the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score in breast cancer patients with liver metastasis after surgery.

Methods

This is a retrospective study of 178 breast cancer patients who developed liver metastasis after surgery. These patients were treated and followed up from 2000 to 2018 at our hospital. The aMAP risk score was estimated in accordance with the following formula: . The optimal cutoff value of the aMAP was evaluated via X-tile. Kaplan-Meier, Log-rank and Cox proportional hazards regression models were applied to determine the clinical influence of the aMAP score on the survival outcomes. The nomogram models were established by multivariate analyses. The calibration curves and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate the estimated performance of the nomogram models.

Results

A total of 178 breast cancer patients were divided into low aMAP score group (<47.6) and high aMAP score group (≥47.6) via X-tile plots. The aMAP score was a potential prognostic factor in multivariate analysis. The median disease free survival (p=0.0013) and overall survival (p=0.0003) in low aMAP score group were longer than in high aMAP score group. The nomograms were constructed to predict the DFS with a C-index of 0.722 (95% CI, 0.673-0.771), and the OS with a C-index of 0.708 (95% CI, 0.661-0.755). The aMAP-based nomograms had good predictive performance.

Conclusion

The aMAP score is a potential prognostic factor in breast cancer with liver metastasis after surgery. The aMAP score-based nomograms were conducive to discriminate patients at high risks of liver metastasis and develop adjuvant treatment and prevention strategies.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Scores from Modeling to Real Clinical Practice in Areas Highly Endemic for Hepatitis B Infection

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accounts for the majority of primary liver cancers and represents a global health challenge. Liver cancer ranks third in cancer-related mortality with 830,000 deaths and sixth in incidence with 906,000 new cases annually worldwide. HCC most commonly occurs in patients with underlying liver disease, especially chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in highly endemic areas. Predicting HCC risk based on scoring models for patients with chronic liver disease is a simple, effective strategy for identifying and stratifying patients to improve the early diagnosis rate and prognosis of HCC. We examined 23 HCC risk scores published worldwide in CHB patients with (n=10) or without (n=13) antiviral treatment. We also described the characteristics of the risk score's predictive performance and application status. In the future, higher predictive accuracy could be achieved by combining novel technologies and machine learning algorithms to develop and update HCC risk score models and integrated early warning and diagnosis systems for HCC in hospitals and communities.

Risk-stratified approach by aMAP score for community population infected with hepatitis B and C to guide subsequent liver cancer screening practice: A cohort study with 10-year follow-up

The aim of this study was to determine whether the age-Male-ALBI-Platelet (aMAP) score is applicable in community settings and how to maximise its role in risk stratification. A total of thousand five hundred and three participants had an aMAP score calculated at baseline and were followed up for about 10 years to obtain information on liver cancer incidence and death. After assessing the ability of aMAP to predict liver cancer incidence and death in terms of differentiation and calibration, the optimal risk stratification threshold of the aMAP score was explored, based on absolute and relative risks. The aMAP score achieved higher area under curves (AUCs) (almost all above 0.8) within 10 years and exhibited a better calibration within 5 years. Regarding absolute risk, the risk of incidence of and death from liver cancer showed a rapid increase after an aMAP score of 55. The cumulative incidence (5-year: 8.3% vs. 1.3% and 10-year: 20.9% vs. 3.6%) and mortality (5-year: 6.7% vs. 1.1% and 10-year: 17.5% vs. 3.1%) of liver cancer in individuals with an aMAP score of ≥55 were significantly higher than in those with a score of <55 (Grey's test p  < .001). In terms of relative risk, the risk of death from liver cancer surpassed that from other causes after an aMAP score of ≥55 [HR = 1.38(1.02-1.87)]. Notably, the two types of death risk had opposite trends between the subpopulation with an aMAP score of ≥55 and < 55. To conclude, this study showed the value of the aMAP score in community settings and recommends using 55 as a new risk stratification threshold to guide subsequent liver cancer screening.

Combining the age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets score and shear wave elastography stratifies carcinogenic risk in hepatitis C patients after viral clearance

BACKGROUND

The treatment of hepatitis C with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) produces a high rate of sustained virological response (SVR) with fewer adverse events than interferon (IFN) therapy with a similar effect in inhibiting carcinogenesis as IFN therapy. The age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelets (aMAP) score is useful for stratifying the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis patients, and the velocity of shear waves (Vs) measured by shear wave elastography has also been shown to be useful for diagnosing the level of fibrotic progression in hepatitis C and predicting carcinogenic risk. Combining these two may improve the prediction of carcinogenic risk.

AIM

To determine whether combining the aMAP score with Vs improves carcinogenic risk stratification in medium-to-high-risk hepatitis C patients.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study involved hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs who achieved SVR. Vs was measured before treatment (baseline), at the end of treatment (EOT), and 12 wk (follow-up 12) and 24 wk (follow-up 24) after treatment. The patients were followed for at least six months after EOT to determine whether cancer developed. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify factors contributing to hepatic carcinogenesis. The diagnostic performances of clinical parameters for predicting the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 279 patients (mean age 65.9 years, 118 males, 161 females) were included in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis was performed with carcinogenesis as the target variable and alanine aminotransferase, platelets, α-fetoprotein, Vs, and the Fib-4 index as explanatory variables; only Vs was found to be significant (P = 0.0296). The cut-off value for Vs for liver carcinogenesis calculated using the ROC curve was 1.53 m/s. Carcinoma developed in 2.0% (3/151) of those with Vs < 1.53 m/s and in 10.5% (9/86) of those with Vs ≥ 1.53 m/s.

CONCLUSION

In hepatitis C patients after SVR, combining the aMAP score and Vs to stratify the risk of carcinogenesis is more efficient than uniform surveillance of all patients.

Evaluation of the aMAP score for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: a realistic opportunity to risk stratify

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aMAP score is a model that predicts risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis. Its performance in a 'real world' surveillance setting has not yet been ascertained.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We had access to a cohort of 3473 individuals enrolled in a rigorously implemented and prospectively accrued surveillance programme (patients undergoing regular ultrasound and biomarker examination between 1998 and 2021). During this period 445 had HCC detected. Of these, 77.8% had early stage disease (within Milan criteria), permitting potentially curative therapy to be implemented in nearly 70% of cases. We applied the recently developed aMAP score to classify patients according to their initial aMAP score in to low, medium and high-risk groups as proposed in the original publication. The performance of the aMAP score was assessed according to the concordance-index and calibration (i.e. agreement between observed and predicted risk). Allowance was made for competing causes of death.

RESULTS

The aMAP score achieved an overall C-index of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.79-0.82) consistent with the initial report and was unaffected by allowance for competing causes of death. Sub-group analysis showed that the results did not change significantly according to gender, or aetiology. However, aMAP discrimination was greater for younger individuals (versus older individuals), and also for individuals without cirrhosis. The HCC incidence rate was 0.98, 7.05 and 29.1 events per 1000 person-years in the low-, moderate- and high-risk aMAP groups, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from this 'real-world' cohort demonstrate that risk stratification is a realistic prospect and that identification of a subgroup of chronic liver disease patients who have a very low risk of HCC is feasible.

Screening for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection is a significant risk factor for developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As HCC is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, screening patients with CHB at a high risk for HCC is recommended in an attempt to improve these outcomes. However, the screening recommendations on who to screen and how often are not uniform. Identifying patients at the highest risk of HCC would allow for the best use of health resources. In this review, we evaluate the literature on screening patients with CHB for HCC, strategies for optimizing adherence to screening, and potential risk stratification tools to identify patients with CHB at a high risk of developing HCC.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic HCV Infection and a Sustained Virological Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) may complicate with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in patients with cirrhosis. Although the achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) had been associated with a reduction in the risk of HCC already in the Interferon era, some concerns initially raised following the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), as their use was associated with increased risk of HCC development and aggressiveness. However, studies demonstrated that the risk of HCC was strongly influenced by pre-treatment fibrosis stage and, eventually, prior HCC history more than the type of antiviral therapy. According to published studies, rates of de-novo HCC ranged between 1.4% and 13.6% in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis vs 0.9% and 5.9% in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Conversely, rates of recurrent HCC were higher, ranging between 3.2% and 49% in cirrhotics vs 0% and 40% in CHC patients. Most studies tried to identify predictors of HCC development, either de-novo or recurrent, and some authors were also able to build predictive scores for HCC risk stratification, which however still need prospective validation. Whereas some clinical features, such as age, gender, presence of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, may influence both de-novo and recurrent HCC, previous tumour burden before DAA seems to prevail over these features in recurrent HCC risk prediction.