PAGE-B incorporating moderate HBV DNA levels predicts risk of HCC among patients entering into HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B

AI model using CT-based imaging biomarkers to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Various hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models have been proposed for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) using clinical variables. We aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based HCC prediction model by incorporating imaging biomarkers derived from abdominal computed tomography (CT) images along with clinical variables.

METHODS

An AI prediction model employing a gradient-boosting machine algorithm was developed utilizing imaging biomarkers extracted by DeepFore, a deep learning-based CT auto-segmentation software. The derivation cohort (n = 5,585) was randomly divided into the training and internal validation sets at a 3:1 ratio. The external validation cohort included 2,883 patients. Six imaging biomarkers (i.e. abdominal visceral fat-total fat volume ratio, total fat-trunk volume ratio, spleen volume, liver volume, liver-spleen Hounsfield unit ratio, and muscle Hounsfield unit) and eight clinical variables were selected as the main variables of our model, PLAN-B-DF.

RESULTS

In the internal validation set (median follow-up duration = 7.4 years), PLAN-B-DF demonstrated an excellent predictive performance with a c-index of 0.91 and good calibration function (p = 0.78 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). In the external validation cohort (median follow-up duration = 4.6 years), PLAN-B-DF showed a significantly better discrimination function compared to previous models, including PLAN-B, PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, and CU-HCC (c-index, 0.89 vs. 0.65-0.78; all p <0.001), and maintained a good calibration function (p = 0.42 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). When patients were classified into four groups according to the risk probability calculated by PLAN-B-DF, the 10-year cumulative HCC incidence was 0.0%, 0.4%, 16.0%, and 46.2% in the minimal-, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This AI prediction model, integrating deep learning-based auto-segmentation of CT images, offers improved performance in predicting HCC risk among patients with CHB compared to previous models.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The novel predictive model PLAN-B-DF, employing an automated computed tomography segmentation algorithm, significantly improves predictive accuracy and risk stratification for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Using a gradient-boosting algorithm and computed tomography metrics, such as visceral fat volume and myosteatosis, PLAN-B-DF outperforms previous models based solely on clinical and demographic data. This model not only shows a higher c-index compared to previous models, but also effectively classifies patients with CHB into different risk groups. This model uses machine learning to analyze the complex relationships among various risk factors contributing to hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence, thereby enabling more personalized surveillance for patients with CHB.

EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatitis B virus infection

The updated EASL Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection provide comprehensive, evidence-based recommendations for its management. Spanning ten thematic sections, the guidelines address diagnostics, treatment goals, treatment indications, therapeutic options, hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance, management of special populations, HBV reactivation prophylaxis, post-transplant care, HBV prevention strategies, and finally address open questions and future research directions. Chronic HBV remains a global health challenge, with over 250 million individuals affected and significant mortality due to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. These guidelines emphasise the importance of early diagnosis, risk stratification based on viral and host factors, and tailored antiviral therapy. Attention is given to simplified algorithms, vaccination, and screening to support global HBV elimination targets. The guidelines also discuss emerging biomarkers and evolving definitions of functional and partial cure. Developed through literature review, expert consensus, and a Delphi process, the guidelines aim to equip healthcare providers across disciplines with practical tools to optimise HBV care and outcomes worldwide.

Baseline Viral Load and On-Treatment Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multinational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk persists in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) despite antiviral therapy. The relationship between pre-treatment baseline hepatitis B virus (HBV) viral load and HCC risk during antiviral treatment remains uncertain.

METHODS

This multinational cohort study aimed to investigate the association between baseline HBV viral load and on-treatment HCC risk in 20,826 noncirrhotic, hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative patients with baseline HBV DNA levels ≥2000 IU/mL (3.30 log10 IU/mL) who initiated entecavir or tenofovir treatment. The primary outcome was on-treatment HCC incidence, stratified by baseline HBV viral load as a categorical variable.

RESULTS

In total, 663 patients developed HCC over a median follow-up of 4.1 years, with an incidence rate of 0.81 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.87). Baseline HBV viral load was significantly associated with HCC risk in a non-linear parabolic pattern, independent of other factors. Patients with baseline viral load between 6.00 and 7.00 log10 IU/mL had the highest on-treatment HCC risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.28; 95% CI, 2.15-8.52; P < .0001) compared with those with baseline viral load ≥8.00 log10 IU/mL, who exhibited the lowest HCC risk.

CONCLUSION

Baseline viral load showed a significant, non-linear, parabolic association with HCC risk during antiviral treatment in noncirrhotic patients with CHB. Early initiation of antiviral treatment based on HBV viral load may help prevent irreversible HCC risk accumulation in patients with CHB.

Non-linear association between liver fibrosis scores and viral load in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels and non-invasive liver fibrosis scores are significantly associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Nonetheless, the relationship between HBV DNA levels and liver fibrosis scores is unclear.

METHODS

A historical cohort comprising 6,949 non-cirrhotic Korean CHB patients without significant alanine aminotransferase elevation was investigated. The association of HBV DNA levels with the aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and fibrosis (FIB)-4 score at baseline was analyzed using general linear models.

RESULTS

In HBeAg-negative patients (n=4,868), HBV DNA levels correlated linearly with both APRI and FIB-4 scores. In contrast, in HBeAg-positive patients (n=2,081), HBV DNA levels correlated inversely with both APRI and FIB-4 scores. Across the entire cohort, a significant non-linear parabolic relationship was identified between HBV DNA levels and fibrosis scores, independent of age and other covariates. Notably, moderate viral loads (6-7 log10 IU/mL) corresponded to the highest APRI and FIB-4 scores (p<0.001). Over a median 10-year follow-up, 435 patients (6.3%) developed HCC. Higher APRI scores ≥0.5 and FIB-4 scores ≥1.45 were significantly associated with elevated HCC risk (p<0.001 for both). HBV DNA level remained a significant predictive factor for HCC development, even after adjusting for APRI or FIB-4 scores.

CONCLUSION

HBV viral load is significantly correlated with APRI and FIB-4 scores, and is also associated with HCC risk independent of those scores in CHB patients. These findings suggest that HBV DNA level is associated with hepatocarcinogenesis through both direct and indirect pathways.

Lack of association between early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance and development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remains unclear. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of HBeAg seroclearance during potent NA treatment with the development of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

Using a multicenter historical cohort including 2,392 non-cirrhotic adult patients with HBeAg-positive CHB who initiated NA treatment with tenofovir or entecavir, the risk of HCC and decompensated cirrhosis was compared between patients who achieved HBeAg seroclearance within 36 months of NA treatment (the HBeAg-loss group) and those who did not (the HBeAg-maintained group), using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

RESULTS

Over a median of 6.6 years of NA treatment, 1,077 patients achieved HBeAg seroclearance (HBeAg loss rate = 6.0 per 100 person-years), 64 patients developed HCC (HCC incidence rate = 0.39 per 100 person-years), and 46 patients developed decompensated cirrhosis (decompensation incidence rate = 0.28 per 100 person-years). The HBeAg-loss and HBeAg-maintained groups had a similar risk of developing HCC (hazard ratio 0.89; 95% CI 0.47-1.68; p = 0.72) and decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio 0.98; 95% CI 0.48-1.81; p = 0.91). Compared with delayed HBeAg seroclearance beyond 10 years of NA treatment, the risk of HCC was comparable in those who achieved earlier HBeAg seroclearance at any time point within 10 years, regardless of baseline age and fibrotic burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Early HBeAg seroclearance during NA treatment was not associated with a reduced risk of development of HCC or decompensated cirrhosis in non-cirrhotic HBeAg-positive patients with CHB.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

The association between hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg) seroclearance during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B remains unclear. Our findings indicate that early on-treatment HBeAg seroclearance within 3 years was not associated with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma or decompensated cirrhosis. Achieving HBeAg seroclearance may not be an appropriate surrogate endpoint for preventing the development of liver-related outcomes in non-cirrhotic patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B treated with nucleos(t)ide analogues.

Evaluation of PAGE-B Score for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients: Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) constitutes a major global public health issue, affecting millions of individuals. Despite the implementation of robust vaccination programs, the hepatitis B virus (HBV) significantly influences morbidity and mortality rates. CHB emerges as one of the leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), introducing a major challenge in the effective management of CHB patients. Therefore, it is of utmost clinical importance to diligently monitor individuals with CHB who are at high risk of HCC development. While various prognostic scores have been developed for surveillance and screening purposes, their accuracy in predicting HCC risk may be limited, particularly in patients under treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues. The PAGE-B model, incorporating age, gender, and platelet count, has exhibited remarkable accuracy, validity, and reliability in predicting HCC occurrence among CHB patients receiving HBV treatment. Its predictive performance stands out, whether considered independently or in comparison to alternative HCC risk scoring systems. Furthermore, the introduction of targeted adjustments to the calculation of the PAGE-B score might have the potential to further improve its predictive accuracy. This review aims to evaluate the efficacy of the PAGE-B score as a dependable tool for accurate prediction of the development of HCC in CHB patients. The evidence discussed aims to provide valuable insights for guiding recommendations on HCC surveillance within this specific population.

Editorial: High qHBsAg-is it a good or bad signal?

This article is linked to Lin et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.17915 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.18021.