Novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19): The first two patients in the UK with person to person transmission

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 from Uttar Pradesh, India

The various strains and mutations of SARS-CoV-2 have been tracked using several forms of genomic classification systems. The present study reports high-throughput sequencing and analysis of 99 SARS-CoV-2 specimens from Western Uttar Pradesh using sequences obtained from the GISAID database, followed by phylogeny and clade classification. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Omicron lineages BA-2-like (55.55%) followed by Delta lineage-B.1.617.2 (45.5%) were predominantly circulating in this area Signature substitution at positions S: N501Y, S: D614G, S: T478K, S: K417N, S: E484A, S: P681H, and S: S477N were commonly detected in the Omicron variant-BA-2-like, however S: D614G, S: L452R, S: P681R and S: D950N were confined to Delta variant-B.1.617.2. We have also identified three escape variants in the S gene at codon position 19 (T19I/R), 484 (E484A/Q), and 681 (P681R/H) during the fourth and fifth waves in India. Based on the phylogenetic diversification studies and similar changes in other lineages, our analysis revealed indications of convergent evolution as the virus adjusts to the shifting immunological profile of its human host. To the best of our knowledge, this study is an approach to comprehensively map the circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains from Western Uttar Pradesh using an integrated approach of whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. These findings will be extremely valuable in developing a structured approach toward pandemic preparedness and evidence-based intervention plans in the future.

Influence of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance outputs produced by the UK health security agency (UKHSA) outbreak surveillance team on decision-making by local stakeholders

BACKGROUND

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) COVID-19 Outbreak Surveillance Team (OST) was established in June 2020 to provide Local Authorities (LAs) in England with surveillance intelligence to aid their response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Reports were produced using standardised metrics in an automated format. Here we evaluate how the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance reports influenced decision making, how resources evolved and how they could be refined to meet the requirements of stakeholders in the future.

METHODS

Public health professionals (n = 2,400) involved in the COVID-19 response from the 316 English LAs were invited to take part in an online survey. The questionnaire covered five themes: (i) report use; (ii) influence of surveillance outputs on local intervention strategies; (iii) timeliness; (iv) current and future data requirements; and (v) content development.

RESULTS

Of the 366 respondents to the survey, most worked in public health, data science, epidemiology, or business intelligence. Over 70% of respondents used the LA Report and Regional Situational Awareness Report daily or weekly. The information had been used by 88% to inform decision making within their organisations and 68% considered that intervention strategies had been instituted as a result of these decisions. Examples of changes instigated included targeted communications, pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the timing of interventions. Most responders considered that the surveillance content had reacted well to evolving demands. The majority (89%) said that their information requirements would be met if the surveillance reports were incorporated into the COVID-19 Situational Awareness Explorer Portal. Additional information suggested by stakeholders included vaccination and hospitalisation data as well as information on underlying health conditions, infection during pregnancy, school absence and wastewater testing.

CONCLUSIONS

The OST surveillance reports were a valuable information resource used by local stakeholders in their response to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Control measures that affect disease epidemiology and monitoring requirements need to be considered in the continuous maintenance of surveillance outputs. We identified areas for further development and, since the evaluation, information on repeat infections and vaccination data have been included in the surveillance reports. Furthermore, timeliness of publications has been improved by updating the data flow pathways.

Reflective, pragmatic, and reactive decision-making by maternity service providers during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic health system shock: a qualitative, grounded theory analysis

BACKGROUND

Pregnant and postpartum women were identified as having particular vulnerability to severe symptomatology of SARS-CoV-2 infection, so maternity services significantly reconfigured their care provision. We examined the experiences and perceptions of maternity care staff who provided care during the pandemic in South London, United Kingdom - a region of high ethnic diversity with varied levels of social complexity.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative interview study, as part of a service evaluation between August and November 2020, using in-depth, semi-structured interviews with a range of staff (N = 29) working in maternity services. Data were analysed using Grounded Theory analysis appropriate to cross-disciplinary health research.

ANALYSIS & FINDINGS

Maternity healthcare professionals provided their views, experiences, and perceptions of delivering care during the pandemic. Analysis rendered three emergent themes regarding decision-making during reconfigured maternity service provision, organised into pathways: 1) 'Reflective decision-making'; 2) 'Pragmatic decision-making'; and 3) 'Reactive decision-making'. Whilst pragmatic decision-making was found to disrupt care, reactive-decision-making was perceived to devalue the care offered and provided. Alternatively, reflective decision-making, despite the difficult working conditions of the pandemic, was seen to benefit services, with regards to care of high-quality, sustainability of staff, and innovation within the service.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision-making within maternity care was found to take three forms - where at best changes to services could be innovative, at worst they could cause devaluation in care being delivered, and more often than not, these changes were disruptive. With regard to positive changes, healthcare providers identified staff empowerment, flexible working patterns (both for themselves and collectively as teams), personalised care delivery, and change-making in general, as key areas to capitalise on current and ongoing innovations borne out of the pandemic. Key learnings included a focus on care-related, meaningful listening and engagement of staff at all levels, in order to drive forward high-quality care and avoid care disruption and devaluation.

The effect of COVID‐19 on surgical management of skin cancers of the head, face and neck in elderly patients

Background

The Corona Virus (COVID-19) has had a profound impact on healthcare systems worldwide, with interruptions to medical practices including the delivery of cancer treatment. Skin cancer is one of the leading causes of malignancy worldwide, with later stages of disease correlating to poorer prognosis. Immunocompromized and elderly patients represent populations that are at higher risk for adverse outcomes related to skin cancer, treatment delay and COVID-19 infection.

Methodology

Patients aged 65 and above who underwent surgical management of skin cancers from 31 January 2020 to 31 January 2021 were included in this study then compared with samples pre- and post-pandemic. Retrospective analysis was performed regarding: date of referral to date of surgery, skin cancer type, location of cancer, surgery performed, anaesthesia used, sutures used and outcomes. Data was compared to national guidelines.

Results

Five hundred and twenty skin cancers were included in this analysis, of which 340 were treated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the cohort treated during the pandemic, 44.2% (n = 111) received excision and direct closure, 13.1% (n = 33) underwent reconstruction by integra dermal substitute, 3.2% (n = 8) by split thickness skin graft, 6.4% (n = 16) by full thickness skin grafts and 33.1% (n = 83) by local flaps. Complete excision was achieved in 88.5% of cases (n = 301). The mean time from referral to surgery was 119 days. There were no deaths associated with COVID-19.

Conclusion

Safe and prompt treatment of head and neck skin cancers is achievable despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Measures to minimize infection risk include the use of teledermatology, reliable COVID-19 testing, Green Pathways and a reduction in the mean referral to surgery time.

Inflammatory Arthritis Associated with COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be highly efficacious in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 infections throughout the pandemic. There have been emerging cases of inflammatory arthritis occurring in close relation to COVID-19 vaccination. We illustrate a case of new-onset inflammatory arthritis 10 days after receiving their second Vaxzevria COVID-19 vaccine. The patient responded dramatically to prednisolone treatment but subsequently required hydroxychloroquine due to persistent inflammatory joint symptoms. Inflammatory arthritis is an increasingly recognized rare adverse effect of COVID-19 vaccination and clinicians should actively consider this in patients with new or flares of inflammatory joint disease.

Risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients: a meta- and network analysis

Understanding the most relevant hematological/biochemical characteristics, pre-existing health conditions and complications in survivors and non-survivor will aid in predicting COVID-19 patient mortality, as well as intensive care unit (ICU) referral and death. A literature review was conducted for COVID-19 mortality in PubMed, Scopus, and various preprint servers (bioRxiv, medRxiv and SSRN), with 97 observational studies and preprints, consisting of survivor and non-survivor sub-populations. This meta/network analysis comprised 19,014 COVID-19 patients, consisting of 14,359 survivors and 4655 non-survivors. Meta and network analyses were performed using META-MAR V2.7.0 and PAST software. The study revealed that non-survivors of COVID-19 had elevated levels of gamma-glutamyl transferase and creatinine, as well as a higher number of neutrophils. Non-survivors had fewer lymphocytes and platelets, as well as lower hemoglobin and albumin concentrations. Age, hypertension, and cerebrovascular disease were shown to be the most influential risk factors among non-survivors. The most common complication among non-survivors was heart failure, followed by septic shock and respiratory failure. Platelet counts, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase, albumin, and blood urea nitrogen levels were all linked to ICU admission. Hemoglobin levels preferred non-ICU patients. Lower levels of hemoglobin, lymphocytes, and albumin were associated with increased mortality in ICU patients. This meta-analysis showed that inexpensive and fast biochemical and hematological tests, as well as pre-existing conditions and complications, can be used to estimate the risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Therapeutic strategies for Covid-19 based on molecular docking and dynamic studies to the ACE-2 receptors, Furin, and viral spike proteins

SARS-CoV-2 is a pandemic virus that caused infections and deaths in many world countries, including the Middle East. The virus-infected human cells by binding via ACE-2 receptor through the Spike protein of the virus with Furin's help causing cell membrane fusion leading to Covid-19-cell entry. No registered drugs or vaccines are triggering this pandemic viral disease yet. Our present work is based on molecular docking and dynamics simulation that performed to spike protein-ACE-2 interface complex, ACE-2 receptor, Spike protein (RBD), and Furin as targets for new small molecules. These drugs target new potential therapies to show their probabilities toward the active sites of mentioned proteins, strongly causing inhibition and/or potential therapy for covid-19. All target proteins were estimated against new target compounds under clinical trials and repurposing drugs currently present. Possibilities of those molecules and potential therapeutics acting on a certain target were predicted. MD simulations over 200 ns with molecular mechanics-generalized Born surface area (MMGBSA) binding energy calculations were performed. The structural and energetic analyses demonstrated the stability of the ligands-M^Pros complex. Our present work will introduce new visions of some biologically active molecules for further studies in-vitro and in-vivo for Covid-19, repurposing of these molecules should be taking place under clinical works and offering different strategies for drugs repurposing against Covid-19 diseases.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Forecasting sub-national trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the UK before vaccine rollout

Vaccines have reduced the burden of COVID-19 disease in the UK since their introduction in December 2020. At the time of their introduction, it was unclear the extent to which COVID-19 vaccines would be accepted and how spatial variations in uptake would emerge, driven by socio-demographic characteristics. In this study, data from a large-scale cross-sectional study of over 17,000 adults, surveyed in September and October 2020, was used to provide sub-national forecasts of COVID-19 vaccine uptake across the UK. Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification was deployed to forecast COVID-19 vaccine acceptance before vaccine rollout across 174 regions of the UK. Although it was found that a majority of the UK adult population would likely take the vaccine, there were substantial heterogeneities in uptake intent across the UK. Large urban areas, including London and North West England, females, Black or Black British ethnicities, and Polish speakers were among the least likely to state an intent to vaccinate. These predicted spatial trends were validated by comparison to observed observed COVID-19 vaccine uptake in late 2021. The methodological approaches deployed in this validated forecasting study may be replicable for the prediction of routine childhood immunisation uptake. Given recent pandemic-induced disruptions to routine immunisation systems, reliable sub-national forecasts of vaccine uptake may provide policymakers and stakeholders early warning signals of potential vaccine confidence issues.

Stakeholder perspectives of piloting pre-hospital COVID-19 lateral flow testing and direct admissions pathway: exploring why well-received ideas have low uptake

Introduction

In January 2021, Yorkshire Ambulance Service and Hull University Teaching Hospitals implemented a pilot COVID-19 lateral flow testing (LFT) and direct admissions pathway to assess the feasibility of using pre-hospital LFTs to bypass the emergency department. Due to lower than anticipated uptake of the pilot among paramedics, we undertook a process evaluation to assess reasons for low uptake and perceived potential benefits and risks associated with the pilot.

Methods

We undertook semi-structured telephone interviews with 12 paramedics and hospital staff. We aimed to interview paramedics who had taken part in the pilot, those who had received the project information but not taken part and ward staff receiving patients from the pilot. We transcribed interviews verbatim and analysed data using thematic analysis.

Results

Participation in the pilot appeared to be positively influenced by high personal capacity for undertaking research (being 'research-keen') and negatively influenced by 'COVID-19 exhaustion', electronic information overload and lack of time for training. Barriers to use of the pathway related to 'poor timing' of the pilot, restrictive patient eligibility and inclusion criteria. The rapid rollout meant that paramedics had limited knowledge or awareness of the pilot, and pilot participants reported poor understanding of the pilot criteria or the rationale for the criteria. Participants who were involved in the pilot were overwhelmingly positive about the intervention, which they perceived as having limited risks and high potential benefits to the health service, patients and themselves, and supported future roll-out.

Conclusions

Ambulance clinician involvement in rapid research pilots may be improved by using multiple recruitment methods (electronic and other), providing protected time for training and increased direct support for paramedics with lower personal capacity for research. Improved communication (including face-to-face approaches) may help understanding of eligibility criteria and increase appropriate recruitment.

Major trauma care at a regional trauma centre during the COVID-19 lockdown in England

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the presentation of many medical and surgical conditions, including major trauma. We aimed to assess how lockdown changed the presentation, severity and management of major trauma patients at our level 1 trauma centre in England.

METHODS

Data were collected retrospectively from the Trauma Audit and Research Network's database between 23 March and 28 April 2020 and compared with the same period in 2019. Collected data included patient demographics, and the mechanism, severity and management of injuries.

RESULTS

We experienced a 56.4% reduction in major trauma admissions during the lockdown period when compared with 2019. In 2020, more patients arrived in haemodynamic shock (25.3% vs 12.2%, p=0.02); however, Glasgow Coma Scale and Injury Severity Score were unchanged. A higher proportion of incidents occurred at home (37.2% vs 53.5%, p=0.018), with no difference in trauma secondary to substance abuse or assault. During lockdown, patients had a significantly shorter hospital (17 vs 10 days, p=0.029) and critical care stay (2 vs 1 day, p=0.033). A higher proportion of major trauma patients were assessed by specialty trainees in the emergency department in 2020 (12.8% vs 53.1%, p=0.0001) with a lower proportion assessed by a consultant (69.8% vs 46.7%, p=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown drastically changed human behaviour, as reflected in the change in presentation of major trauma. Changes in the management of these patients reflect adaptive measures to manage the pressures generated by the worldwide pandemic.

Systemic Inflammation Is Associated With Future Risk of Fatal Infection: An Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Many diseases are associated with chronic inflammation, resulting in widening application of anti-inflammatory therapies. Although they are effective as disease-modifying agents, these anti-inflammatory therapies increase the risk of serious infection; however, it remains unknown whether chronic systemic inflammation per se is also associated with fatal infection.

METHODS

Using serum C-reactive protein (CRP) data from 461 052 UK Biobank participants, we defined incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for death from infection, cardiovascular disease, or other causes and adjusted for comorbidities and the use of anti-inflammatory therapies.

RESULTS

Systemic inflammation, defined as CRP ≥2 mg/L, was common in all comorbidities considered. After adjusting for confounding factors, systemic inflammation was associated with a higher IRR point estimate for infection death (1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.51-1.92) than cardiovascular (1.48; CI, 1.40-1.57) or other death (1.41; CI, 1.37-1.45), although CIs overlapped. C-reactive protein thresholds of ≥5 and ≥10 mg/L yielded similar findings, as did analyses in people with ≥2, but not <2, comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Systemic inflammation per se identifies people at increased risk of infection death, potentially contributing to the observed risks of anti-inflammatory therapies in clinical trials. In future clinical trials of anti-inflammatory therapies, researchers should carefully consider risks and benefits in target populations, guided by research into mechanisms of infection risk.

Causal Model Analysis of Police Officers' COVID-19 Fear, Resistance to Organizational Change Effect on Emotional Exhaustion and Insomnia

Since the end of 2019, COVID-19 has continued to spread around the world. The police have performed various epidemic prevention and routine duties. This study explores how police officers' COVID-19 fear, resistance to organizational change, intolerance of uncertainty, and secondary trauma affect emotional exhaustion and insomnia in the context of COVID-19. A total of 205 valid police samples were collected in this study, and the established hypotheses were tested using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. The results of the study confirmed that during the COVID-19 outbreak, secondary trauma of police officers positively affects emotional exhaustion and insomnia; intolerance of uncertainty positively affects emotional exhaustion; resistance to organizational change positively affects intolerance of uncertainty and emotional exhaustion; intolerance of uncertainty mediates the relationship between resistance to organizational change and emotional exhaustion; COVID-19 fear positively influences secondary trauma.

Head and neck cancer presentations in the emergency department during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction It is not uncommon to note patients with painful orofacial lesions presenting via the emergency department to the on-call team. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw a surge in these attendances, prompting a review of our emergency database.Methods The maxillofacial emergency database was retrospectively reviewed in the period between March 2020 and October 2021 (19 months). Data including relevant variables were collected in a standard spreadsheet database and analysed by two clinicians.Results Between March 2020 and October 2021, 34 patients attended with oral ulceration and non-odontogenic neck swellings, out of which nine patients had subsequent diagnosis of oral/oropharyngeal cancer (mean age: 64.2 years). All patients were grouped as stage IV cancers and only one patient was deemed suitable for ablative surgery, which is the primary mode of treatment in oral cancers. Three patients were deemed to have progressive/recurrent disease despite active treatment and two patients unfortunately passed away due to the disease.Conclusion The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on head and neck cancer diagnoses and management suffered significantly. We present our experience dealing with this vulnerable cohort in the emergency department and their subsequent journey.

Resilience in healthcare supply chains: a review of the UK’s response to the COVID19 pandemic

Purpose

The purpose of this explorative research is to analyse the resilience of the United Kingdom's (UK) healthcare supply chains from a customer’s perspective in the light of the coronavirus pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the capabilities of preparedness, robustness, recovery and adaptability as the foundational percept for supply chain resilience, 22 healthcare professionals in 17 of the UK's National Health Scheme (NHS) Trusts were interviewed to explore their personal and organisational approaches adopted relative to the provision of eye protection, gloves, gowns, aprons, masks and respirators. The Dynamic Capabilities View is mapped to the resilience capabilities and used to analyse the data from a transformational supply chain research perspective.

Findings

The supply chains were largely unprepared, which was not particularly surprising even though the availability of gloves was significantly better compared to the other personal protective equipment (PPE). Techniques adopted to ensure robustness and recovery revealed the use of unsanctioned methods such as extended use of PPE beyond recommended use, redefinition of guidelines, protocols and procedures by infection control and the use of expired PPE – all of which compromised customer well-being.

Research limitations/implications

As the paper views resilience through the lens of customers, it does not provide the perspectives of the supply chain practitioners as to the reasons for the findings and the challenges within these supply chains.

Practical implications

The compromise of the well-being of healthcare workers due to the vulnerabilities of healthcare supply chains is highlighted to managers and prescriptions for post-disruption adaptability are made.

Originality/value

This paper introduces transformative research to supply chain resilience research by uniquely looking at resilience from the customers' well-being perspective.

COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Updatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status.

FINDINGS

Among 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1.

INTERPRETATION

Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK.

Gastrointestinal manifestations of SARS-CoV-2 infection in an Italian population of hospitalized patients

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus enters the cells via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor; therefore, tissues expressing this receptor are potential targets for infection. Although many studies have observed gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, prevalence and clinical impact are still uncertain due to the heterogeneity of reports and obstacles to generalization.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we included symptomatic patients requiring hospital admission, with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 by nasopharyngeal polymerase chain reaction test, between 18 March and 30 May 2020. Demographic data, symptoms at onset, vital signs, and laboratory tests at admission were recorded.

RESULTS

In all, 300 patients were included (57%M, 43%F). GI symptoms were mainly diarrhea (13%), anorexia (4.3%), vomiting (3%), and abdominal pain (2.3%). Overall, males were younger (68 years versus 76 years; p = 0.01); patients with GI manifestations at disease onset required significantly faster hospital admission and showed larger GI complication rates. GI symptoms were associated with abnormal high aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase serum titers, especially in male patients.

CONCLUSION

Our study on an Italian population during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic shows that GI symptoms are part of the spectrum of the SARS-CoV-2 infection and could be the only manifestations at disease onset. Although patients with GI symptoms were associated with faster hospital admission and liver involvement, prognosis was not affected.

Adalimumab and Infliximab Impair SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses: Results from a Therapeutic Drug Monitoring Study in 11 422 Biologic-Treated Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Infliximab attenuates serological responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Whether this is a class effect, or if anti-tumour necrosis factor [anti-TNF] level influences serological responses, remains unknown.

METHODS

Seroprevalence and the magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody responses were measured in surplus serum from 11 422 (53.3% [6084] male; median age 36.8 years) patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases, stored at six therapeutic drug monitoring laboratories between January 29 and September 30, 2020. Data were linked to nationally held SARS-CoV-2 PCR results to July 11, 2021.

RESULTS

Rates of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were similar across treatment groups. Seroprevalence rates were lower in infliximab- and adalimumab- than vedolizumab-treated patients (infliximab: 3.0% [178/5893], adalimumab: 3.0% [152/5074], vedolizumab: 6.7% [25/375], p = 0.003). The magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 reactivity was similar in infliximab- vs adalimumab-treated patients (median 4.30 cut-off index [COI] [1.94-9.96] vs 5.02 [2.18-18.70], p = 0.164), but higher in vedolizumab-treated patients (median 21.60 COI [4.39-68.10, p < 0.004). Compared to patients with detectable infliximab and adalimumab drug levels, patients with undetectable drug levels [<0.8 mg/L] were more likely to be seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. One-third of patients who had PCR testing prior to antibody testing failed to seroconvert, all were treated with anti-TNF. Subsequent positive PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 was seen in 7.9% [12/152] of patients after a median time of 183.5 days [129.8-235.3], without differences between drugs.

CONCLUSION

Anti-TNF treatment is associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid seroprevalence and antibody reactivity when compared to vedolizumab-treated patients. Higher seropositivity rates in patients with undetectable anti-TNF levels support a causal relationship, although confounding factors, such as combination therapy with a immunomodulator, may have influenced the results.

The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the first UK lockdown on older age presentations to a regional psychiatric liaison service: A retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Loneliness and social isolation may have increased during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, possibly increasing mental health problems. However, due to fears of contracting COVID-19, patients may not have presented to hospitals.

AIMS

We assessed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic measures and lockdown on elderly (≥65 years) presentations to a psychiatric liasion service.

SETTINGS AND DESIGN

A UK regional liasion psychiatry service.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Mixed methods methodologies were used to assess data between 01/01/20 and 31/08/20, which were compared to data from the same time period in 2019. Statistical and thematic analyses were conducted to understand drivers of presentations.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Nonparametric testing and analysis of variance (ANOVA).

RESULTS

Presentations to liaison psychiatry reduced by 13% for 01-08/2020 compared to 01-08/2019, with a 42% reduction during lockdown. Average weekly presentations significantly decreased during the main lockdown months only (April 2019 vs. 2020: 213.0 [12.3] vs. 110.3 [22.9] [adjusted P = 0.006], May 2019 vs. 2020: 209.5 [14.6] vs. 148.8 [12.3] [adjusted P = 0.006]). There was only a trend toward reduced elderly presentations from January to August 2020 and during lockdown. Lockdown pressures did not drive significantly more new elderly presentations. However, we still found a highly significant difference in the distribution of causal factors for the elderly presentations affected by the pressures of lockdown compared to those who were not.

CONCLUSIONS

A trend toward reduced elderly presentations during lockdown and the pandemic was found. Thematic analysis supported by further statistical analysis of the drivers of elderly presentations showed that the pressures of lockdown clearly affected older age liaison psychiatry presentations.

Implementation and Extended Evaluation of the Euroimmun Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG Assay and Its Contribution to the United Kingdom's COVID-19 Public Health Response

In March 2020, the Rare and Imported Pathogens Laboratory at the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) (formerly Public Health England [PHE]) Porton Down, was tasked by the Department of Health and Social Care with setting up a national surveillance laboratory facility to study SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses and population-level sero-surveillance in response to the growing SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. In the following 12 months, the laboratory tested more than 160,000 samples, facilitating a wide range of research and informing UKHSA, DHSC, and UK government policy. Here we describe the implementation and use of the Euroimmun anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay and provide an extended evaluation of its performance. We present a markedly improved overall sensitivity of 91.39% (≥14 days 92.74%, ≥21 days 93.59%) compared to our small-scale early study, and a specificity of 98.56%. In addition, we detail extended characteristics of the Euroimmun assay: intra- and interassay precision, correlation to neutralization, and assay linearity. IMPORTANCE Serology assays have been useful in determining those with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in a wide range of research and serosurveillance projects. However, assays vary in their sensitivity at detecting SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Here, we detail an extended evaluation and characterization of the Euroimmun anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay, one that has been widely used within the United Kingdom on over 160,000 samples to date.

Heat inactivation of clinical COVID-19 samples on an industrial scale for low risk and efficient high-throughput qRT-PCR diagnostic testing

We report the development of a large scale process for heat inactivation of clinical COVID-19 samples prior to laboratory processing for detection of SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR. With more than 266 million confirmed cases, over 5.26 million deaths already recorded at the time of writing, COVID-19 continues to spread in many parts of the world. Consequently, mass testing for SARS-CoV-2 will remain at the forefront of the COVID-19 response and prevention for the near future. Due to biosafety considerations the standard testing process requires a significant amount of manual handling of patient samples within calibrated microbiological safety cabinets. This makes the process expensive, effects operator ergonomics and restricts testing to higher containment level laboratories. We have successfully modified the process by using industrial catering ovens for bulk heat inactivation of oropharyngeal/nasopharyngeal swab samples within their secondary containment packaging before processing in the lab to enable all subsequent activities to be performed in the open laboratory. As part of a validation process, we tested greater than 1200 clinical COVID-19 samples and showed less than 1 Cq loss in RT-qPCR test sensitivity. We also demonstrate the bulk heat inactivation protocol inactivates a murine surrogate of human SARS-CoV-2. Using bulk heat inactivation, the assay is no longer reliant on containment level 2 facilities and practices, which reduces cost, improves operator safety and ergonomics and makes the process scalable. In addition, heating as the sole method of virus inactivation is ideally suited to streamlined and more rapid workflows such as ‘direct to PCR’ assays that do not involve RNA extraction or chemical neutralisation methods.

Global Research Trends in Pediatric COVID-19: A Bibliometric Analysis

Background

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in 2019 and has since caused a global pandemic. Since its emergence, COVID-19 has hugely impacted healthcare, including pediatrics. This study aimed to explore the current status and hotspots of pediatric COVID-19 research using bibliometric analysis.

Methods

The Institute for Scientific Information Web of Science core collection database was searched for articles on pediatric COVID-19 to identify original articles that met the criteria. The retrieval period ranged from the creation of the database to September 20, 2021. A total of 3,561 original articles written in English were selected to obtain data, such as author names, titles, source publications, number of citations, author affiliations, and countries where the studies were conducted. Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) was used to create charts related to countries, authors, and institutions. VOSviewer (Center for Science and Technology Studies, Leiden, The Netherlands) was used to create visual network diagrams of keyword, author, and country co-occurrence.

Results

We screened 3,561 publications with a total citation frequency of 30,528. The United States had the most published articles (1188 articles) and contributed the most with author co-occurrences. The author with the most published articles was Villani from the University of Padua, Italy. He also contributed the most co-authored articles. The most productive institution was Huazhong University of Science and Technology in China. The institution with the most frequently cited published articles was Shanghai Jiao Tong University in China. The United States cooperated most with other countries. Research hotspots were divided into two clusters: social research and clinical research. Besides COVID-19 and children, the most frequent keywords were pandemic (251 times), mental health (187 times), health (172 times), impact (148 times), and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) (144 times).

Conclusion

Pediatric COVID-19 has attracted considerable attention worldwide, leading to a considerable number of articles published over the past 2 years. The United States, China, and Italy have leading roles in pediatric COVID-19 research. The new research hotspot is gradually shifting from COVID-19 and its related clinical studies to studies of its psychological and social impacts on children.

Worry and behaviour at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak: Results from three UK surveys (the COVID-19 rapid survey of Adherence to Interventions and responses [CORSAIR] study)

We aimed to describe worry and uptake of behaviours that prevent the spread of infection (respiratory and hand hygiene, distancing) in the UK at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak (January and February 2020) and to investigate factors associated with worry and adopting protective behaviours. Three cross-sectional online surveys of UK adults (28 to 30 January, n = 2016; 3 to 6 February, n = 2002; 10 to 13 February 2020, n = 2006) were conducted. We used logistic regressions to investigate associations between outcome measures (worry, respiratory and hand hygiene behaviour, distancing behaviour) and explanatory variables. 19.8% of participants (95% CI 18.8% to 20.8%) were very or extremely worried about COVID-19. People from minoritized ethnic groups were particularly likely to feel worried. 39.9% of participants (95% CI 37.7% to 42.0%) had completed one or more hand or respiratory hygiene behaviour more than usual in the last seven days. Uptake was associated with greater worry, perceived effectiveness of individual behaviours, self-efficacy for engaging in them, and having heard more information about COVID-19. 13.7% (95% CI 12.2% to 15.2%) had reduced the number of people they had met. This was associated with greater worry, perceived effectiveness, and self-efficacy. At the start of novel infectious disease outbreaks, communications should emphasise perceived effectiveness of behaviours and the ease with which they can be carried out.

A multi-targeting drug design strategy for identifying potent anti-SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors

The COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is threatening public health, and there is no effective treatment. In this study, we have implemented a multi-targeted anti-viral drug design strategy to discover highly potent SARS-CoV-2 inhibitors, which simultaneously act on the host ribosome, viral RNA as well as RNA-dependent RNA polymerases, and nucleocapsid protein of the virus, to impair viral translation, frameshifting, replication, and assembly. Driven by this strategy, three alkaloids, including lycorine, emetine, and cephaeline, were discovered to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 with EC50 values of low nanomolar levels potently. The findings in this work demonstrate the feasibility of this multi-targeting drug design strategy and provide a rationale for designing more potent anti-virus drugs.

DK, Ragunathan V, Tiwari P, A. S, P BD. Molecular docking, validation, dynamics simulations, and pharmacokinetic prediction of natural compounds against the SARS-CoV-2 main-protease

The study aims to evaluate the potency of two hundred natural antiviral phytocompounds against the active site of the Severe Acquired Respiratory Syndrome - Coronavirus - 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Main-Protease (Mpro) using AutoDock 4.2.6. The three- dimensional crystal structure of the Mpro (PDB Id: 6LU7) was retrieved from the Protein Data Bank (PDB), the active site was predicted using MetaPocket 2.0. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved viral protease inhibitors were used as standards for comparison of results. The compounds theaflavin-3-3'-digallate, rutin, hypericin, robustaflavone, and (-)-solenolide A with respective binding energy of -12.41 (Ki = 794.96 pM); -11.33 (Ki = 4.98 nM); -11.17 (Ki = 6.54 nM); -10.92 (Ki = 9.85 nM); and -10.82 kcal/mol (Ki = 11.88 nM) were ranked top as Coronavirus Disease - 2019 (COVID-19) Mpro inhibitors. The interacting amino acid residues were visualized using Discovery Studio 3.5 to elucidate the 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional interactions. The study was validated by i) re-docking the N3-peptide inhibitor-Mpro and superimposing them onto co-crystallized complex and ii) docking decoy ligands to Mpro. The ligands that showed low binding energy were further predicted for and pharmacokinetic properties and Lipinski's rule of 5 and the results are tabulated and discussed. Molecular dynamics simulations were performed for 50 ns for those compounds using the Desmond package, Schrödinger to assess the conformational stability and fluctuations of protein-ligand complexes during the simulation. Thus, the natural compounds could act as a lead for the COVID-19 regimen after in-vitro and in- vivo clinical trials.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Remote triaging of urgent suspected head and neck cancer referrals: our experience during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

PURPOSE

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, otolaryngology departments across the United Kingdom have adopted non-face-to-face clinics with consultations being carried out remotely, via telephone or video calls. By reducing footfall on hospital sites, the aim of this strategy was to limit direct contact and curb the spread of infection. This report outlines our experience of conducting a telephone triage clinic in the assessment of urgent suspected head and neck cancer referrals during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

New patients who were referred on the urgent suspected head and neck cancer pathway were prospectively identified between 1 May 2020 and 31 August 2020. Patients were triaged remotely using telephone consultations. Risk stratification was performed using the 'Head and Neck Cancer Risk Calculator' (HaNC-RC v.2).

RESULTS

Four-hundred and twelve patients were triaged remotely during the 4-month study period. Of these, 248 patients were deemed 'low risk' (60.2%), 78 were classed as 'moderate risk' (18.9%) and 86 were considered 'high risk' (20.9%) according to the HaNC-RC v.2 risk score. Twenty-four patients who were assessed during the study period were diagnosed with head and neck cancer (5.82%).

CONCLUSION

The use of teleconsultation, supported by a validated, symptom-based risk calculator, has the potential to provide a viable and effective adjunct in the assessment and management of new suspected head and neck cancer patients and should be considered as part of the inherent re-shaping of clinical service delivery following the ongoing pandemic.

'Dear Doctor': a randomised controlled trial of a text message intervention to reduce burnout in trainee anaesthetists

One in four doctors in training in the UK reports feeling 'burnt out' due to their work and similar figures are reported in other countries. This two-group non-blinded randomised controlled trial aimed to determine if a novel text message intervention could reduce burnout and increase well-being in UK trainee anaesthetists. A total of 279 trainee anaesthetists (Core Training Year 2, Specialty Training Years 3 or 4) were included. All participants received one initial message sharing support resources. The intervention group (139 trainees) received 22 fortnightly text messages over approximately 10 months. Messages drew on 11 evidence-based themes including: gratitude; social support; self-efficacy; and self-compassion. Primary outcomes were burnout (Copenhagen Burnout Inventory) and well-being (Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale). Secondary outcomes were as follows: meaning in work; professional value; sickness absence; and consideration of career break. Outcomes were measured via online surveys. Measures of factors that may have affected well-being were included post-hoc, including the impact of COVID-19 (the first UK wave of which coincided with the second half of the trial). The final survey was completed by 153 trainees (74 in the intervention and 79 in the control groups). There were no significant group differences in: burnout (β = -1.82, 95%CI -6.54-2.91, p = 0.45); well-being (-0.52, -1.73-0.69, p = 0.40); meaning (-0.09, -0.67-0.50, p = 0.77); value (-0.01, -0.67-0.66, p = 0.99); sick days (0.88, -2.08-3.83, p = 0.56); or consideration of career break (OR = 0.44, -0.30-1.18, p = 0.24). Exploratory post-hoc analysis found the intervention was associated with reduced burnout in participants reporting personal or work-related difficulties during the trial period (-9.56, -17.35 to -1.77, p = 0.02) and in participants reporting that the COVID-19 pandemic had a big negative impact on their well-being (-10.38, -20.57 to -0.19, p = 0.05). Overall, this trial found the intervention had no impact. However, given this intervention is low cost and requires minimal time commitment from recipients, it may warrant adaptation and further evaluation.

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021-2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND

To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.

METHODS

Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020-2021.

RESULTS

We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Describing the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using syndromic surveillance systems

Background

Since the end of January 2020, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has been responsible for a global health crisis. In England a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been introduced throughout the pandemic, including guidelines on healthcare attendance (for example, promoting remote consultations), increased handwashing and social distancing. These interventions are likely to have impacted the incidence of non–COVID-19 conditions as well as healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic Surveillance Systems offer the ability to monitor trends in healthcare usage over time.

Methods

This study describes the indirect impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation using a range of syndromic indicators including eye conditions, mumps, fractures, herpes zoster and cardiac conditions. Data from the syndromic surveillance systems monitored by Public Health England were used to describe the number of contacts with NHS 111, general practitioner (GP) In Hours (GPIH) and Out-of-Hours (GPOOH), Ambulance and Emergency Department (ED) services over comparable periods before and during the pandemic.

Results

The peak pandemic period in 2020 (weeks 13–20), compared to the same period in 2019, displayed on average a 12% increase in NHS 111 calls, an 11% decrease in GPOOH consultations, and a 49% decrease in ED attendances. In the GP In Hours system, conjunctivitis consultations decreased by 64% and mumps consultations by 31%. There was a 49% reduction in attendance at EDs for fractures, and there was no longer any weekend increase in ED fracture attendances, with similar attendance patterns observed across each day of the week. There was a decrease in the number of ED attendances with diagnoses of myocardial ischaemia.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic drastically impacted healthcare utilisation for non-COVID-19 conditions, due to a combination of a probable decrease in incidence of certain conditions and changes in healthcare seeking behaviour. Syndromic surveillance has a valuable role in describing and understanding these trends.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12117-5.

Adult intensive care unit admissions with severe COVID-19 infection following emergency Caesarean section deliveries: A case series

BACKGROUND

UK data suggest 6% of COVID-19 hospital admissions are either currently pregnant or immediately post-partum. However, the current literature suggests that if COVID-19 occurs in pregnancy, or post-partum, symptoms are mostly mild.

METHODS

All COVID-19 admissions to one acute London National Health Service Foundation trust were reviewed since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to 1 May 2020 to establish whether there were any pregnant or immediately post-partum admissions. Data were extracted from hospital electronic records and anonymised. Any patients admitted to adult intensive care unit had their case notes reviewed in detail and comparison made to a local risk-assessment guideline identifying patients at-risk of thromboembolic events or cytokine storms. Local hospital guidelines were followed. Patients admitted to adult intensive care unit gave written consent.

RESULTS

A total of 24 pregnant or immediately post-partum patients with COVID-19 were admitted. Three patients required long adult intensive care unit admissions for severe single-organ respiratory failure after emergency C-sections. Two of these patients required proning (three times and eight times, respectively). All were considered medium risk for thromboembolic events but had rising D-dimers following adult intensive care unit admission, resulting in increased dosing of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis throughout their admission. All were considered low risk for a cytokine storm, and none had any significant cardiovascular or renal involvement. One patient developed a super-imposed fungal lung infection. All three patients developed delirium following cessation of sedation.

CONCLUSION

Pregnant or immediately post-partum women can develop severe COVID-19 symptoms requiring prolonged adult intensive care unit admission. It is likely to be single-organ failure, but patients are at a high risk of a thromboembolic event and delirium.

Detailed phylogenetic analysis tracks transmission of distinct SARS-COV-2 variants from China and Europe to West Africa

SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in December 2019 in China and raised fears it could overwhelm healthcare systems worldwide. Mutations of the virus are monitored by the GISAID database from which we downloaded sequences from four West African countries Ghana, Gambia, Senegal and Nigeria from February 2020 to April 2020. We subjected the sequences to phylogenetic analysis employing the nextstrain pipeline. We found country-specific patterns of viral variants and supplemented that with data on novel variants from June 2021. Until April 2020, variants carrying the crucial Europe-associated D614G amino acid change were predominantly found in Senegal and Gambia, and combinations of late variants with and early variants without D614G in Ghana and Nigeria. In June 2021 all variants carried the D614G amino acid substitution. Senegal and Gambia exhibited again variants transmitted from Europe (alpha or delta), Ghana a combination of several variants and in Nigeria the original Eta variant. Detailed analysis of distinct samples revealed that some might have circulated latently and some reflect migration routes. The distinct patterns of variants within the West African countries point at their global transmission via air traffic predominantly from Europe and only limited transmission between the West African countries.

Helicopter Emergency Medical Services Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrests During the Initial COVID-19 Lockdown Versus Nonpandemic: A Comparison

Objective

COVID-19 may have contributed to an excess of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OOHCAs). This observational study identified changes in OOHCA epidemiology pre– and post–COVID-19 lockdown in a single UK helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS).

Methods

A retrospective, single-center (Essex & Herts Air Ambulance), observational study was undertaken with anonymized OOHCA data (demographics, etiology, and outcomes) from March 23, 2020, to June 23, 2020, and comparative data from March 23, 2019, to June 23, 2019. Supplementary data (total OOHCAs and patient outcomes) were provided by the East of England Ambulance Service National Health Service Trust. Data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test and chi-square test; P < .05 was statistically significant.

Results: Of the HEMS activations during national lockdown, 33.6% were for OOHCAs compared with 25.8% during the reference time frame. The frequency of young and female OOHCAs demonstrated a statistically significant increase. Statistically significant variations in medical etiology and initial cardiac rhythm were identified.

Conclusion

During the initial UK-wide lockdown, the OOHCA characteristics attended by 1 HEMS team were altered. The changes seen may be due to the pathophysiology of COVID-19 or an alteration in dispatch due to the demand placed on the wider ambulance service; this may require further consideration for any future lockdowns or pandemics.

STAT: a fast, scalable, MinHash-based k-mer tool to assess Sequence Read Archive next-generation sequence submissions

Sequence Read Archive submissions to the National Center for Biotechnology Information often lack useful metadata, which limits the utility of these submissions. We describe the Sequence Taxonomic Analysis Tool (STAT), a scalable k-mer-based tool for fast assessment of taxonomic diversity intrinsic to submissions, independent of metadata. We show that our MinHash-based k-mer tool is accurate and scalable, offering reliable criteria for efficient selection of data for further analysis by the scientific community, at once validating submissions while also augmenting sample metadata with reliable, searchable, taxonomic terms.

Evaluation of procalcitonin-guided antimicrobial stewardship in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 pneumonia

Background

Procalcitonin is a biomarker that may be able to identify patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who do not require antimicrobials for bacterial respiratory tract co-infections.

Objectives

To evaluate the safety and effectiveness of a procalcitonin-guided algorithm in rationalizing empirical antimicrobial prescriptions in non-critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Methods

Retrospective, single-site, cohort study in adults hospitalized with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 pneumonia and receiving empirical antimicrobials for potential bacterial respiratory tract co-infection. Regression models were used to compare the following outcomes in patients with and without procalcitonin testing within 72 h of starting antimicrobials: antimicrobial consumption (DDD); antimicrobial duration; a composite safety outcome of death, admission to HDU/ICU or readmission to hospital within 30 days; and length of admission. Procalcitonin levels of ≤0.25 ng/L were interpreted as negatively predictive of bacterial co-infection. Effects were expressed as ratios of means (ROM) or prevalence ratios (PR) accordingly.

Results

259 patients were included in the final analysis. Antimicrobial use was lower in patients who had procalcitonin measured within 72 h of starting antimicrobials: mean antimicrobial duration 4.4 versus 5.4 days, adjusted ROM 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.9); mean antimicrobial consumption 6.8 versus 8.4 DDD, adjusted ROM 0.7 (95% CI 0.6-0.8). Both groups had similar composite safety outcomes (adjusted PR 0.9; 95% CI 0.6-1.3) and lengths of admission (adjusted ROM 1.3; 95% CI 0.9-1.6).

Conclusions

A procalcitonin-guided algorithm may allow for the safe reduction of antimicrobial usage in hospitalized non-critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Cytokine storm syndrome in SARS-CoV-2: a review

After wreaking havoc on a global level with a total of 5,488,825 confirmed cases and 349,095 deaths as of May 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is truly living up to the expectations of a 21st-century pandemic. Since the major cause of mortality is a respiratory failure from acute respiratory distress syndrome, the only present-day management option is supportive as the transmission relies solely on human-to-human contact. Patients suffering from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) should be tested for hyper inflammation to screen those for whom immunosuppression can increases chances of survival. As more and more clinical data surfaces, it suggests patients with mild or severe cytokine storms are at greater risk of failing fatally and hence these cytokine storms should be targets for treatment in salvaging COVID-19 patients.

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Chronic Liver Diseases and Cirrhosis Mortality in European Urban Areas before and after the Onset of the 2008 Economic Recession

Objective: To analyse the trends in chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis mortality, and the associated socioeconomic inequalities, in nine European cities and urban areas before and after the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. Methods: This is an ecological study of trends in three periods of time: two before (2000–2003 and 2004–2008), and one after (2009–2014) the onset of the economic crisis. The units of analysis were the geographical areas of nine cities or urban areas in Europe. We analysed chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis standardised mortality ratios, smoothing them with a hierarchical Bayesian model by each city, area, and sex. An ecological regression model was fitted to analyse the trends in socioeconomic inequalities, and included the socioeconomic deprivation index, the period, and their interaction. Results: In general, chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis mortality rates were higher in men than in women. These rates decreased in all cities during the financial crisis, except among men in Athens (rates increased from 8.50 per 100,000 inhabitants during the second period to 9.42 during the third). Socioeconomic inequalities in chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis mortality were found in six cities/metropolitan areas among men, and in four among women. Finally, in the periods studied, such inequalities did not significantly change. However, among men they increased in Turin and Barcelona and among women, several cities had lower inequalities in the third period. Conclusions: There are geographical socioeconomic inequalities in chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis mortality, mainly among men, that did not change during the 2008 financial crisis. These results should be monitored in the long term.

The impact of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on working dynamics of junior and middle grade doctors in the United Kingdom: Learning from their experience requires immediate improvement in health care planning and management-An outcome analysis of a nationwide survey

OBJECTIVES

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic had an unprecedented impact on health services across the world resulting in increased demand of intensive care capacity, opening Nightingale hospitals, and mass movement of doctors across various specialities. This unplanned redeployment raised concerns among various health care workers. The objective of the current study is to explore working dynamics and experience of junior and middle grade doctors during current pandemic.

METHODS

We organised a nationwide cross-sectional survey of junior and middle grade doctors working in the United Kingdom. The survey was aimed to study their level of participation during coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its impact on their clinical practices and well-being.

RESULTS

In total, 1564 completed questionnaires with representations from all regions of the United Kingdom were included. The mean age of respondents was 30.64 years (95% confidence interval +1.025; standard deviation = 9.9057). There were 51.5% females with significantly more participants from Black, Asian, and minority ethnic group (n = 835, p = 0.0073); 963 (61.6%, p ⩽ 0.0001) doctors were redeployed outside their primary speciality. The major redeployments were from other specialities to Intensive Therapy Units (41.8%, p ⩽ 0.001); 63.3% of respondents spend more than 8 weeks in redeployed speciality (p ⩽ 0.0001). There was a significant impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on personal, mental, and physical well-being of doctors. The major areas requiring immediate attention include proper leadership and clinical support (64.1%), pre-redeployment planning and induction (48.5%), redeployment according to the skills and/or in familiar specialities (44.6%), and regular mental and physical well-being checks (37%).

CONCLUSION

The outcome of the survey concluded with four major recommendations, including the need to have a named supervisor for these doctors, structured induction program, regular well-being checks, and involving them in crisis planning. These recommendations will help to shape future health care policies and management particularly when it is related to redeployment of doctors during any crisis or pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in dogs and cats in the United Kingdom

Companion animals are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and sporadic cases of pet infections have occurred in the United Kingdom. Here we present the first large-scale serological survey of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in dogs and cats in the UK. Results are reported for 688 sera (454 canine, 234 feline) collected by a large veterinary diagnostic laboratory for routine haematology during three time periods; pre-COVID-19 (January 2020), during the first wave of UK human infections (April–May 2020) and during the second wave of UK human infections (September 2020–February 2021). Both pre-COVID-19 sera and those from the first wave tested negative. However, in sera collected during the second wave, 1.4% (n ​= ​4) of dogs and 2.2% (n ​= ​2) of cats tested positive for neutralising antibodies. The low numbers of animals testing positive suggests pet animals are unlikely to be a major reservoir for human infection in the UK. However, continued surveillance of in-contact susceptible animals should be performed as part of ongoing population health surveillance initiatives.

Women's experiences of maternity service reconfiguration during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative investigation

OBJECTIVE

To explore women's experiences of maternity service reconfiguration during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

DESIGN

Qualitative interview study.

SETTING

South London, United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

Women (N=23) who gave birth between March and August 2020 in one of the ten South London maternity hospitals.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews were conducted (N=23), via video-conferencing software. Transcribed interviews were analysed 'by hand' using Microsoft Word. Template analysis was selected to code, analyse, and interpret data, according to the findings of a recently-published national survey of maternity service reconfiguration across the UK in response to COVID-19.

FINDINGS

Three main themes emerged through analysis: (i) Disruption to In-Person Care and Increased Virtual Care Provision, (ii) Changes to Labour and Birth Preferences and Plans, (iii) Advice for Navigating Maternity Services During a Pandemic.

KEY CONCLUSIONS

Women reported mixed views on the reduction in scheduled in-person appointments. The increase in remote care, especially via telephone, was not well endorsed by women. Furthermore, women reported an under-reliance on healthcare professionals for support, rather turning to family.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

We provide insight into the experiences of women who received antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal care during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings should inform healthcare policy to build back better maternity care services after the pandemic.

Elementary effects analysis of factors controlling COVID-19 infections in computational simulation reveals the importance of social distancing and mask usage

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO) on March 11th, 2020. With half of the world's countries in lockdown as of April due to this pandemic, monitoring and understanding the spread of the virus and infection rates and how these factors relate to behavioural and societal parameters is crucial for developing control strategies. This paper aims to investigate the effectiveness of masks, social distancing, lockdown and self-isolation for reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Our findings from an agent-based simulation modelling showed that whilst requiring a lockdown is widely believed to be the most efficient method to quickly reduce infection numbers, the practice of social distancing and the usage of surgical masks can potentially be more effective than requiring a lockdown. Our multivariate analysis of simulation results using the Morris Elementary Effects Method suggests that if a sufficient proportion of the population uses surgical masks and follows social distancing regulations, then SARS-CoV-2 infections can be controlled without requiring a lockdown.

Impact of Covid-19 on attendances for a 1st episode of reduced fetal movements: A retrospective observational study

Background

Prior studies have demonstrated an increased stillbirth rate. It was suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic may have impacted on attendances for reduced fetal movements. Thus, we sought to ascertain the impact of the pandemic on attendances for reduced fetal movements (RFM) in our unit, ultrasound provision for reduced fetal movements, and the stillbirth rate.

Methods

This was a single site retrospective cohort study involving all women complaining of a 1^st episode of reduced fetal movements between 01/03/2020-30/04/2020 (COVID) to 01/03/2019-30/04/2019 (Pre-COVID). Data were retrieved from computerised hospital records and statistical analyses were performed using GraphPad Prism and SPSS.

Results

22% (179/810) of women presented with a 1^st episode of reduced fetal movements Pre-COVID compared to 18% (145/803) during COVID (p = 0.047). Primiparous women were significantly over-represented in this population with a 1.4-fold increase in attendances during COVID (67% vs 48%, p = 0.0005). Neither the total stillbirth rate nor the stillbirth rate amongst women who presented with reduced fetal movements changed during COVID. Ultrasound provision was not impacted by COVID with 95% of the scans performed according to local guidelines, compared to Pre-COVID (74%, p = 0.0001).

Conclusions

There is a significant decrease in 1^st attendances for reduced fetal movements during COVID-19 pandemic. Primiparous women were 1.4 times more likely to attend with RFM. Women should be reassured that COVID-19 has not resulted in a decreased provision of care for RFM, and has not impacted on the stillbirth rate.

SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in Dogs and Cats in the United Kingdom

Companion animals are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and sporadic cases of pet infections have occurred in the United Kingdom. Here we present the first large-scale serological survey of SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies in dogs and cats in the UK. Results are reported for 688 sera (454 canine, 234 feline) collected by a large veterinary diagnostic laboratory for routine haematology during three time periods; pre-COVID-19 (January 2020), during the first wave of UK human infections (April-May 2020) and during the second wave of UK human infections (September 2020-February 2021). Both pre-COVID-19 sera and those from the first wave tested negative. However, in sera collected during the second wave, 1.4% (n=4) of dogs and 2.2% (n=2) cats tested positive for neutralising antibodies. The low numbers of animals testing positive suggests pet animals are unlikely to be a major reservoir for human infection in the UK. However, continued surveillance of in-contact susceptible animals should be performed as part of ongoing population health surveillance initiatives.

Impact of COVID-19 on older adults and role of long-term care facilities during early stages of epidemic in Italy

Older adults are the main victims of the novel COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak and elderly in Long Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) are severely hit in terms of mortality. This paper presents a quantitative study of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy during first stages of the epidemic, focusing on the effects on mortality increase among older adults over 80 and its correlation with LTCFs. The study of growth patterns shows a power-law scaling regime for the first stage of the pandemic with an uneven behaviour among different regions as well as for the overall mortality increase according to the different impact of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 incidence rate does not fully explain the differences of mortality impact in older adults among different regions. We define a quantitative correlation between mortality in older adults and the number of people in LTCFs confirming the tremendous impact of COVID-19 on LTCFs. In addition a correlation between LTCFs and undiagnosed cases as well as effects of health system dysfunction is also observed. Our results confirm that LTCFs did not play a protective role on older adults during the pandemic, but the higher the number of elderly people living in LTCFs the greater the increase of both general and COVID-19 related mortality. We also observed that the handling of the crises in LTCFs hampered an efficient tracing of COVID-19 spread and promoted the increase of deaths not directly attributed to SARS-CoV-2.

Factor analysis approach to classify COVID-19 datasets in several regions

The aim of this research is to investigate the relationships between the counts of cases with Covid-19 and the deaths due to it in seven countries that are severely affected from this pandemic disease. First, the Pearson's correlation is used to determine the relationships among these countries. Then, the factor analysis is applied to categorize these countries based on their relationships.

Retrospective screening of routine respiratory samples revealed undetected community transmission and missed intervention opportunities for SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom

In the early phases of the SARS coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, testing focused on individuals fitting a strict case definition involving a limited set of symptoms together with an identified epidemiological risk, such as contact with an infected individual or travel to a high-risk area. To assess whether this impaired our ability to detect and control early introductions of the virus into the UK, we PCR-tested archival specimens collected on admission to a large UK teaching hospital who retrospectively were identified as having a clinical presentation compatible with COVID-19. In addition, we screened available archival specimens submitted for respiratory virus diagnosis, and dating back to early January 2020, for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Our data provides evidence for widespread community circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in early February 2020 and into March that was undetected at the time due to restrictive case definitions informing testing policy. Genome sequence data showed that many of these early cases were infected with a distinct lineage of the virus. Sequences obtained from the first officially recorded case in Nottinghamshire - a traveller returning from Daegu, South Korea - also clustered with these early UK sequences suggesting acquisition of the virus occurred in the UK and not Daegu. Analysis of a larger sample of sequences obtained in the Nottinghamshire area revealed multiple viral introductions, mainly in late February and through March. These data highlight the importance of timely and extensive community testing to prevent future widespread transmission of the virus.

Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

The dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are complicated by age-dependent factors, changing levels of infection, and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as the perceived risk declines, necessitating the use of mathematical models. Our aims were to use epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of vaccine efficacy to predict the possible long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 under the planned vaccine rollout.

METHODS

In this study, we used a mathematical model structured by age and UK region, fitted to a range of epidemiological data in the UK, which incorporated the planned rollout of a two-dose vaccination programme (doses 12 weeks apart, protection onset 14 days after vaccination). We assumed default vaccine uptake of 95% in those aged 80 years and older, 85% in those aged 50-79 years, and 75% in those aged 18-49 years, and then varied uptake optimistically and pessimistically. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease was assumed to be 88% on the basis of Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines being administered in the UK, and protection against infection was varied from 0% to 85%. We considered the combined interaction of the UK vaccination programme with multiple potential future relaxations (or removals) of NPIs, to predict the reproduction number (R) and pattern of daily deaths and hospital admissions due to COVID-19 from January, 2021, to January, 2024.

FINDINGS

We estimate that vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak. In the absence of NPIs, even with our most optimistic assumption that the vaccine will prevent 85% of infections, we estimate R to be 1·58 (95% credible intervals [CI] 1·36-1·84) once all eligible adults have been offered both doses of the vaccine. Under the default uptake scenario, removal of all NPIs once the vaccination programme is complete is predicted to lead to 21 400 deaths (95% CI 1400-55 100) due to COVID-19 for a vaccine that prevents 85% of infections, although this number increases to 96 700 deaths (51 800-173 200) if the vaccine only prevents 60% of infections. Although vaccination substantially reduces total deaths, it only provides partial protection for the individual; we estimate that, for the default uptake scenario and 60% protection against infection, 48·3% (95% CI 48·1-48·5) and 16·0% (15·7-16·3) of deaths will be in individuals who have received one or two doses of the vaccine, respectively.

INTERPRETATION

For all vaccination scenarios we investigated, our predictions highlight the risks associated with early or rapid relaxation of NPIs. Although novel vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 offer a potential exit strategy for the pandemic, success is highly contingent on the precise vaccine properties and population uptake, both of which need to be carefully monitored.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation.

Surgical Treatment and Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer Patients During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Population-based Study in England

To compare the management and outcomes of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients during the first 2 months of the COVID-19 pandemic with the preceding 6 months.

BACKGROUND

The pandemic has affected the diagnosis and treatment of CRC patients worldwide. Little is known about the safety of major resection and whether creating "cold" sites (COVID-free hospitals) is effective.

METHODS

A national study in England used administrative hospital data for 14,930 CRC patients undergoing surgery between October 1, 2019, and May 31, 2020. Mortality of CRC resection was compared before and after March 23, 2020 ("lockdown" start).

RESULTS

The number of elective CRC procedures dropped sharply during the pandemic (from average 386 to 214 per week), whereas emergency procedures were hardly affected (from 88 to 84 per week). There was little change in characteristics of surgical patients during the pandemic. Laparoscopic surgery decreased from 62.5% to 35.9% for elective and from 17.7% to 9.7% for emergency resections. Surgical mortality increased slightly (from 0.9% to 1.2%, P = 0.06) after elective and markedly (from 5.6% to 8.9%, P = 0.003) after emergency resections. The observed increase in mortality during the first phase of the pandemic was similar in "cold" and "hot" sites (P > 0.5 elective and emergency procedures).

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic resulted in a 50% reduction in elective CRC procedures during the initial surge and a substantial increase in mortality after emergency resection. There was no evidence that surgery in COVID-free "cold" sites led to better outcomes in the first 2 months.

Population (Antibody) Testing for COVID-19-Technical Challenges, Application and Relevance, an English Perspective

In the UK, population virus or antibody testing using virus swabs, serum samples, blood spots or oral fluids has been performed to a limited extent for several diseases including measles, mumps, rubella and hepatitis and HIV. The collection of population-based infection and immunity data is key to the monitoring of disease prevalence and assessing the effectiveness of interventions such as behavioural modifications and vaccination. In particular, the biological properties of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its interaction with the human host have presented several challenges towards the development of population-based immunity testing. Measuring SARS-CoV-2 immunity requires the development of antibody assays of acceptable sensitivity and specificity which are capable of accurately detecting seroprevalence and differentiating protection from non-protective responses. Now that anti-COVID-19 vaccines are becoming available there is a pressing need to measure vaccine efficacy and the development of herd immunity. The unprecedented impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK in terms of morbidity, mortality, and economic and social disruption has mobilized a national scientific effort to learn more about this virus. In this article, the challenges of testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in relation to population-based immunity testing, will be considered and examples given of relevant national level studies.