Methods and Findings from the National Violent Death Reporting System for Identifying Gang-Like Homicides, 2005-2008

Research utility and limitations of textual data in the National Violent Death Reporting System: a scoping review and recommendations

BACKGROUND

Many studies of injury deaths rely on mortality data that contain limited contextual information about decedents. The National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) is unique among such data systems in that each observation includes both quantitative variables and qualitative texts (called "narratives") abstracted from original source documents. These narratives provide rich data regarding salient circumstances that can be used to inform prevention efforts. This review provides a comprehensive summary of peer-reviewed research using NVDRS narratives over the past 20 years, including the limitations of these texts and provides recommendations on utilizing and improving narrative quality for researchers and practitioners.

MAIN BODY

Studies that used narratives to examine deaths related to suicide, homicide, undetermined intent, accidental firearm, or legal intervention were identified by a title/abstract screening, followed by a full-text review. The search was conducted on English-language, peer-reviewed literature and government reports published from 2002 to 2022 in PubMed, PsycInfo, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Abstracted elements focused on the methodologies used to analyze the narratives, including approaches to explore potential biases in these texts. Articles were abstracted independently by two reviewers, with disagreements resolved through consensus discussion. During the 20-year period, 111 articles used narratives. Two-thirds studied suicide (n = 48, 43%) and homicides (n = 25, 23%). Most studies analyzed the narratives using manual review (n = 81, 73%) and keyword searches (n = 9, 8%), with only 6 (5%) using machine learning tools. Narratives were mainly used for case finding (n = 49, 44%) and characterization of circumstances around deaths (n = 38, 34%). Common challenges included variability in the narratives and lack of relevant circumstantial details for case characterization.

CONCLUSION

Although the use of narratives has increased over time, these efforts would be enhanced by detailed abstraction of circumstances with greater salience to injury research and prevention. Moreover, researchers and practitioners would benefit from guidance on integrating narratives with quantitative variables and standardized approaches to address variability in the completeness and length of narratives. Such efforts will increase the reliability of findings and set the stage for more widespread applications of data science methods to these texts.

Violent victimization among immigrants: Using the National Violent Death Reporting System to examine foreign-born homicide victimization in the United States

Limited research attention has focused on homicides involving foreign-born victims. Using data from the National Violent Death Reporting System, we examined 9428 homicides that occurred in 2017 in the United States across 32 states and D.C. Approximately 8% of homicide victims were foreign-born. Homicide victimization rates were substantially lower for foreign-born persons, compared to U.S.-born persons. However, foreign-born persons from Honduras, El Salvador, and Jamaica had a substantially higher risk of homicide victimization. Notably, few homicides involving foreign-born victims were gang- or drug-trade-related. With the growing number of immigrants in the United States, policy and prevention efforts should be guided by research.

Aggression, Escalation, and Other Latent Themes in Legal Intervention Deaths of Non-Hispanic Black and White Men: Results From the 2003‒2017 National Violent Death Reporting System

Objectives. To investigate racial/ethnic differences in legal intervention‒related deaths using state-of-the-art topic modeling of law enforcement and coroner text summaries drawn from the 2003-2017 US National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS). Methods. Employing advanced topic modeling, we identified 8 topics consistent with dangerousness in death incidents in the NVDRS death narratives written by public health workers (PHWs). Using logistic regression, we then evaluated racial/ethnic differences in PHW-coded variables and narrative topics among 4981 males killed by legal intervention, while adjusting for age, county-level characteristics, and year. Results. Black, as compared with White, decedents were younger and their deaths were less likely to include PHW-coded mental health or substance use histories, weapon use, or positive toxicology for alcohol or psychoactive drugs, but more likely to include "gangs-as-an-incident-precipitant" coding. Topic modeling revealed less frequent thematic representation of "physical aggression" or "escalation" but more of "gangs or criminal networks" among Black versus White decedents. Conclusions. While Black males were more likely to be victims of legal intervention deaths, PHW-coded variables in the NVDRS and death narratives suggest lower threat profiles among Black versus similar White decedents. The source of this greater risk remains undetermined.

Caught in the crossfire: 37 Years of firearm violence afflicting America's youth

INTRODUCTION

Publicly available firearm data are difficult to access. Trauma registry data are excellent at documenting patterns of firearm-related injury. Law enforcement data excel at capturing national violence trends to include both circumstances and firearm involvement. The goal of this study was to use publicly available law enforcement data from all 50 states to better define patterns of firearm-related homicides in the young.

METHODS

All homicides in individuals 25 years or younger in the United States over a 37-year period ending in 2016 were analyzed: infant, 1 year or younger; child, 1 to 9 years old; adolescent, 10 to 19 years old; and young adult, 20 to 25 years old. Primary data files were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and comprised the database. Data analyzed included homicide type, situation, circumstance, month, firearm type, and demographics. Rates of all homicides and firearm-related homicides per 1 million population and the proportion of firearm-related homicides (out of all homicides) were stratified by year and compared over time using simple linear regression.

RESULTS

A total of 171,113 incidents of firearm-related homicide were analyzed (69% of 246,437 total homicides): 5,313 infants, 2,332 children, 59,777 adolescents, and 103,691 young adults. Most (88%) were male and Black (59%) with a median age of 20 years. Firearm-related homicides peaked during the summer months of June, July, and August (median, 1,156 per year; p = 0.0032). Rates of all homicides (89 to 53 per 1 million population) and firearm-related homicides (56 to 41 per 1 million population) decreased significantly from 1980 to 2016 (β = -1.12, p < 0.0001 and β = -0.57, p = 0.0039, respectively). However, linear regression analysis identified a significant increase in the proportion of firearm-related homicides (out of all homicides) from 63% in 1980 to 76% in 2016 (β = 0.33, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

For those 25 years or younger, the proportion of firearm-related homicides has steadily and significantly increased over the past 37 years, with 3 of 4 homicides firearm related in the modern era. Despite focused efforts, reductions in the rate of firearm-related homicides still lag behind those for all other methods of homicide by nearly 50%. That is, while the young are less likely to die from homicide, for those unfortunate victims, it is more likely to be due to a firearm. This increasing role of firearms in youth homicides underscores the desperate need to better direct prevention efforts and firearm policy if we hope to further reduce firearm-related deaths in the young.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological study, level III.

The Impact of Residing in a Gang Territory on Adverse Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Los Angeles

Gang violence remains an ongoing crisis in many communities in the United States. This paper assesses the potential association of gang-occupied neighborhoods with birth outcomes. Adverse birth outcomes serve as a "barometer" of population health, denoting both poor conditions for human development and portending future public health concerns. We draw upon (1) Los Angeles County Vital Statistics Birth Records (2008-2012), (2) GIS information on gang territory boundaries, (3) LA city geo-coded crime data, and (4) the 2010 U.S. Census and 2006-2010 American Community Survey. We find an association between gang-occupied neighborhoods and adverse birth outcomes; however, this association is largely explained by other neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics, crime notwithstanding. We also find that gangland neighborhoods tend to exacerbate the effects of crime for all birth outcomes, but only significantly so for small for gestational age births. Lastly, gang co-residence, crime, and other neighborhood demographics explain a substantial portion of socioeconomic and racial/ethnic disparities in adverse birth outcomes. Gangland neighborhoods appear to be a novel contributor to both population health and health disparities. Future studies should address these relationships in a broad range of metropolitan settings, paying careful attention to causal linkages and moderating effects of gangs and crime.