CHADS2 and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores for the prediction of congestive heart failure in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

Predicting new-onset heart failure hospitalization of patients with atrial fibrillation: development and external validations of a risk score

AIM

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a well-known risk factor for heart failure (HF). We sought to develop and externally validate a risk model for new-onset HF admission in patients with AF and those without a history of HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using two multicentre, prospective, observational AF registries, RAFFINE (2857 patients, derivation cohort) and SAKURA (2516 patients without a history of HF, validation cohort), we developed a risk model by selecting variables with regularized regression and weighing coefficients by Cox regression with the derivation cohort. External validity testing was used for the validation cohort. Overall, 148 (5.2%) and 104 (4.1%) patients in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively, developed HF during median follow-ups of 1396 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1078-1820) and 1168 (IQR: 844-1309) days, respectively. In the derivation cohort, age, haemoglobin, serum creatinine, and log-transformed brain natriuretic peptide were identified as potential risk factors for HF development. The risk model showed good discrimination and calibration in both derivations (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.84]; Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.257) and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.78 [95%CI 0.74-0.83]; Hosmer-Lemeshow, P = 0.475).

CONCLUSION

The novel risk model with four readily available clinical characteristics and biomarkers performed well in predicting new-onset HF admission in patients with AF.

Clinical outcomes and structural remodelling after ablation of atrial fibrillation in heart failure with mildly reduced or mid-range ejection fraction

AIMS

The efficacy of catheter ablation (CA) on clinical outcomes and cardiac structural remodelling in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with HF with mildly reduced or mid-range ejection fraction (HFmrEF) remains unclear. We aimed to compare the efficacy of CA with medical therapy (MT) in AF patients with HFmrEF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively screened a total of 36 879 patients with AF between 2005 and 2020. Patients who were initially diagnosed with echocardiography-proved HFmrEF and had follow-up echocardiography were enrolled. After applying propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio, 72 patients treated by CA (Group 1) and 72 patients receiving MT (Group 2) were taken into further analysis. The co-morbidities were similar between the two groups, except for hyperlipidaemia. After a mean follow-up duration of 58.9 ± 42.6 months, Group 1 had a lower HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality compared with Group 2 (hazard ratio (HR), 0.089 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.011-0.747]; P = 0.026 and HR, 0.121 [95% CI, 0.016-0.894]; P = 0.038, respectively). As for cardiac structural remodelling, the Group 1 had a better improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and a more decreased left atrium (LA) diameter than Group 2 (+25.0% ± 18.0% vs. +6.2% ± 21.6%, P = <0.0001 and -1.6 ± 4.7 mm vs. +1.5 ± 8.2 mm, P = 0.008, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with HFmrEF and AF, CA of AF could reduce both HF hospitalization and all-cause mortality as compared with those with MT. A significant improvement in LVEF and decrease in LA diameter were also observed in the CA group. Early rhythm control with CA should be taken into consideration in patients with HFmrEF and AF.

Nationwide study of sex differences in incident heart failure in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a leading complication of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF), and the presence of both conditions worsens prognosis. Sex-specific associations between NVAF and outcomes focus on stroke; less is known about HF. We evaluated sex differences in incident HF in NVAF.

Methods

We identified adults age ≥ 65 years hospitalized for incident NVAF without prior HF from April 2010 to March 2018 in Canada. The primary outcome was incident HF hospitalization, with a secondary composite outcome of incident HF hospitalization or all-cause mortality at 1 year. Cox proportional hazard regression models were constructed for the association between sex and outcomes, adjusting for age, comorbidities, socioeconomic status, cardioversion, and medications.

Results

Of 68,909 NVAF patients, 53.8% were women. Women had a higher rate of the primary outcome (30.0% vs 25.6%, P < 0.001) and the composite outcome (39.5% vs 36.6%, P < 0.001) than men. In multivariable analysis without adjusting for medications, there was an 8% increase risk of HF (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.11, P < 0.001) for women, which was attenuated when accounting for medication (hazard ratio [HR] 1.01, 95% CI 0.98-1.04). After full adjustment, women age ≥ 75 years were at higher risk of the primary outcome (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.13, P < 0.001) and the composite outcome (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.07, P < 0.001), compared with men, whereas there was a significantly lower risk for those age 65-75 years.

Conclusions

In this nationwide study of incident NVAF without HF, women age ≥ 75 years were more likely to develop HF or die than men. Strategies to prevent HF in older women with NVAF are needed.

Stroke risk scores to predict hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure in atrial fibrillation patients

Introduction. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most frequent hospitalized arrhythmia. It associates increased risk of death, stroke and heart failure (HF). Stroke risk scores, especially CHA₂DS₂-VASc, have been applied also for populations with different diseases. There is, however, limited data focusing on the ability of these scores to predict HF decompensation.Methods. We conducted a retrospective observational study on a cohort of 204 patients admitted for cardiovascular pathology to the Cardiology Ward of our tertiary University Hospital. We aimed to determine whether the stroke risk scores could predict hospitalisations for acute decompensated HF in AF patients.Results. C-statistics for CHADS₂ and R₂CHADS₂ showed a modest predictive ability for hospitalisation with decompensated HF (CHADS₂: AUC 0.631 p = 0.003; 95%CI 0.560-0.697. R₂CHADS₂: AUC 0.619; 95%CI 0.548-0.686; p = 0.004), a marginal correlation for CHA₂DS_2-VASc (AUC 0.572 95%CI 0.501-0.641 with a p value of only 0.09, while the other scores failed to show a correlation. A CHADS₂ ≥ 2 showed a RR = 2.96, p<0.0001 for decompensated HF compared to a score <2. For R₂CHADS₂ ≥ 2, RR = 2.41, p = 0.001 compared to a score <2. For CHA₂DS_2-VASc ≥ 2 RR = 2.18 p = 0.1, compared to CHA₂DS₂-VASc <2. The correlation coefficients showed a weak correlation for CHADS₂ (r = 0.216; p = 0.001) and even weaker for R₂CHADS₂ (r = 0.197; p = 0.0047 and CHA₂DS₂-VASc (r = 0.14; p = 0.035).Conclusions. Among AF patients, CHADS_2, CHA₂DS₂-VASc and R₂CHADS₂ were associated with the risk of hospitalisation for decompensated HF while ABC and ATRIA failed to show an association. However, predictive accuracy was modest and the clinical utility for this outcome remains to be determined.

CHA2DS2-VASc score, cerebral small vessel disease, and frailty in older patients with atrial fibrillation

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is a validated predictor of ischemic stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. However, data are limited on whether the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is associated with subclinical brain structural changes or physical frailty among older AF patients. We assessed the relationship between CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores and brain structural changes or physical frailty in AF patients without history of stroke. Overall, 117 patients completed a comprehensive geriatric assessment for physical frailty. In brain magnetic resonance imaging sub-study (n = 49), brain volume and white matter hyperintensity lesion burden were automatically quantified using the LESIONQUANT software program. Patients with high risk of CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (≥ 2 in men or ≥ 3 in women) tended to be older and had more comorbidities, higher frailty index, and slower gait speed. Total white matter hyperintensity lesion burden was higher in those with high risk of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score than in those with intermediate risk (score of 1 in men or 2 in women) of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (1.67 [interquartile range: 0.70–3.45] vs. 0.64 [0.19–1.44], p = 0.036). Cognitive function was associated with brain volume, but gait speed was related with white matter hyperintensity lesion burden. In conclusion, we showed a positive relationship between CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores, white matter hyperintensity lesion burden, and physical frailty in older AF patients. Subclinical brain changes associated with high CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores may predict physical frailty risk.

Drivers of hospitalization in atrial fibrillation: A contemporary review

Atrial fibrillation (AF)-related hospitalization has risen over the last 2 decades and is the most influential determinant of total disease-related expenditure. In this review article, we describe several identified drivers of hospitalization from several registries and large-scale clinical trials, including key cardiovascular and non-traditional risk factors. We also discuss available assessment tools for discerning overall risk of hospitalization, including AF symptom scores, thrombosis and bleeding disposition, and non-invasive cardiac structural assessment. Finally, we highlight the different treatment paradigms that have been proven to reduce AF burden, progression, and hospitalization in the literature.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score and the Risk of Ventricular Tachyarrhythmic Events and Mortality in MADIT-CRT

Background

We hypothesized that multiple cardiovascular comorbidities, incorporated in the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score, may be useful in the assessment of ventricular tachyarrhythmias (VTAs) and mortality risk in heart failure (HF) patients.

Methods and Results

We evaluated the association between the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score (dichotomized as high at the upper quartile [≥5] and further assessed as a continuous measure) and the risk of VTA and death among 1804 patients enrolled in MADIT‐CRT (Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy). A high CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score (n=464; 26%) was inversely associated with the risk of any VTA (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.64; P=0.001), fast VTA >200 beats/min (HR; 0.51; P<0.001), and appropriate implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator shocks (HR: 0.60; P<0.001). In contrast, a high score was directly correlated with mortality risk (HR: 1.92; P<0.001) and the risk of HF or death (HR: 1.60; P<0.001). Consistently, each 1‐U increment in CHA₂DS₂‐VASc was associated with a significant 13% (P=0.003) reduction in VTA risk but a corresponding 33% (P<0.001) increase in mortality risk. Patients with a high CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score and left bundle‐branch block derived a pronounced 53% (P<0.001) reduction in the risk of HF or death with cardiac resynchronization therapy with defibrillator versus implantable cardioverter‐defibrillator–only therapy.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that a high CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score can be used to identify patients with mild HF who have low VTA risk and high morbidity or mortality risk and may derive a pronounced clinical benefit from cardiac resynchronization therapy without a defibrillator. These data suggest a possible role for the CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score in device selection among candidates for biventricular pacing.