Investigating the utility of previously developed prediction scores in acute ischemic stroke patients in the stroke belt

Nijeholt G, van Es A, van der Lugt A, Majoie C, Burke J, Roozenbeek B, Lingsma H, Dippel D. Outcome Prediction Models for Endovascular Treatment of Ischemic Stroke: Systematic Review and External Validation

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Prediction models for outcome of patients with acute ischemic stroke who will undergo endovascular treatment have been developed to improve patient management. The aim of the current study is to provide an overview of preintervention models for functional outcome after endovascular treatment and to validate these models with data from daily clinical practice.

The Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Thrombolysis in Older Chinese Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke

To study the efficacy and safety of intravenous thrombolysis for the older acute ischemic stroke patients, clinical data were prospectively analyzed from 168 patients with acute ischemic stroke including 42 older adult patients (ET group), 66 younger patients (NET group) treated with rt-PA, and 60 older adult patients treated without rt-PA (ENT group). Stroke severity was assessed with an NIHSS score at baseline, 1-day and 14-day after treatment. Functional outcomes were evaluated by the modified Rankin scale and a Barthel index. Adverse effects were observed during the treatment. The rate of "good" prognosis was higher in the ET group than that in the ENT group at 90 days post-stroke. In older patients with stroke, thrombolytic therapy was found to be of greater benefit to patients with lower NIHSS scores at baseline, or patients classified as posterior circulation infarction, than for patients with higher NIHSS scores or infarctions located in other brain regions. Thrombolytic therapy may exhibit long-term efficacy by improving the future quality of life for older stroke patients with fewer bleeding risk factors and lower baseline NIHSS scores.

Thinking About the Future: A Review of Prognostic Scales Used in Acute Stroke

Background: There are many prognostic scales that aim to predict functional outcome following acute stroke. Despite considerable research interest, these scales have had limited impact in routine clinical practice. This may be due to perceived problems with internal validity (quality of research), as well as external validity (generalizability of results). We set out to collate information on exemplar stroke prognosis scales, giving particular attention to the scale content, derivation, and validation.

Methods: We performed a focused literature search, designed to return high profile scales that use baseline clinical data to predict mortality or disability. We described prognostic utility and collated information on the content, development and validation of the tools. We critically appraised chosen scales based on the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies (CHARMS).

Results: We chose 10 primary scales that met our inclusion criteria, six of which had revised/modified versions. Most primary scales used 5 input variables (range: 4–13), with substantial overlap in the variables included. All scales included age, eight included a measure of stroke severity, while five scales incorporated pre-stroke level of function (often using modified Rankin Scale), comorbidities and classification of stroke type. Through our critical appraisal, we found issues relating to excluding patients with missing data from derivation studies, and basing the selection of model variable on significance in univariable analysis (in both cases noted for six studies). We identified separate external validation studies for all primary scales but one, with a total of 60 validation studies.

Conclusions: Most acute stroke prognosis scales use similar variables to predict long-term outcomes and most have reasonable prognostic accuracy. While not all published scales followed best practice in development, most have been subsequently validated. Lack of clinical uptake may relate more to practical application of scales rather than validity. Impact studies are now necessary to investigate clinical usefulness of existing scales.

THRIVE score predicts clinical and radiological outcome after endovascular therapy or thrombolysis in patients with anterior circulation stroke in everyday clinical practice

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Based on the data of several trials the Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) score has been shown to predict outcome after either intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) or endovascular therapy (ET) in acute stroke patients. It is unknown whether the THRIVE score can also predict outcome in everyday clinical practice. Using our prospectively obtained stroke database the utility of the THRIVE score to predict clinical and radiological outcome in everyday clinical practice was analysed.

METHODS

The relationships between THRIVE and good outcome (modified Rankin Scale ≤ 2 at discharge), poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale 5-6), in-hospital death, symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (SICH) as well as infarct size were examined in patients with distal intracranial carotid artery, M1 and M2 occlusions after either IVT or ET.

RESULTS

From January 2008 to October 2016 a total of 546 patients were treated with IVT and 492 patients received ET with stent retrievers (with or without IVT). In both treatment groups the THRIVE score predicted clinical outcome (Mantel-Haenszel chi-squared tests for trend P < 0.001 for good outcome, P < 0.001 for poor outcome and P < 0.001 for in-hospital death). In the ET group the THRIVE score remained an independent predictor of outcome after controlling for recanalization. The THRIVE score was associated with the infarct size after IVT or ET, whereas it did not predict SICH rates in either treatment group.

CONCLUSIONS

In everyday clinical practice the THRIVE score strongly predicts clinical outcome and the extent of ischaemia after ET or IVT in patients with anterior circulation large vessel occlusions.

Ischemic stroke outcome: A review of the influence of post-stroke complications within the different scenarios of stroke care

Stroke remains one of the main causes of death and disability worldwide. The challenge of predicting stroke outcome has been traditionally assessed from a general point of view, where baseline non-modifiable factors such as age or stroke severity are considered the most relevant factors. However, after stroke occurrence, some specific complications such as hemorrhagic transformations or post stroke infections, which lead to a poor outcome, could be developed. An early prediction or identification of these circumstances, based on predictive models including clinical information, could be useful for physicians to individualize and improve stroke care. Furthermore, the addition of biological information such as blood biomarkers or genetic polymorphisms over these predictive models could improve their prognostic value. In this review, we focus on describing the different post-stroke complications that have an impact in short and long-term outcome across different time points in its natural history and on the clinical-biological information that might be useful in their prediction.