Development and testing of an artificial intelligence tool for predicting end-stage kidney disease in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy

MAL-Net: A Multi-Label Deep Learning Framework Integrating LSTM and Multi-Head Attention for Enhanced Classification of IgA Nephropathy Subtypes Using Clinical Sensor Data

BACKGROUND

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a leading cause of renal failure, characterized by significant clinical and pathological heterogeneity. Accurate subtype classification remains challenging due to overlapping clinical manifestations and the multidimensional nature of data. Traditional methods often fail to fully capture IgAN's complexity, limiting their clinical applicability. This study introduces MAL-Net, a deep learning framework for multi-label classification of IgAN subtypes, leveraging multidimensional clinical data and incorporating sensor-based inputs such as laboratory indices and symptom tracking.

METHODS

MAL-Net integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Multi-Head Attention (MHA) mechanisms to effectively capture sequential and contextual dependencies in clinical data. A memory network module extracts features from clinical sensors and records, while the MHA module emphasizes critical features and mitigates class imbalance. The model was trained and validated on clinical data from 500 IgAN patients, incorporating demographic, laboratory, and symptomatic variables. Performance was evaluated against six baseline models, including traditional machine learning and deep learning approaches.

RESULTS

MAL-Net outperformed all baseline models, achieving 91% accuracy and an AUC of 0.97. The integration of MHA significantly enhanced classification performance, particularly for underrepresented subtypes. The F1-score for the Ni-du subtype improved by 0.8, demonstrating the model's ability to address class imbalance and improve precision.

CONCLUSIONS

MAL-Net provides a robust solution for multi-label IgAN subtype classification, tackling challenges such as data heterogeneity, class imbalance, and feature interdependencies. By integrating clinical sensor data, MAL-Net enhances IgAN subtype prediction, supporting early diagnosis, personalized treatment, and improved prognosis evaluation.

Enhancing predictive accuracy for urinary tract infections post-pediatric pyeloplasty with explainable AI: an ensemble TabNet approach

Ureteropelvic junction obstruction (UPJO) is a common pediatric condition often treated with pyeloplasty. Despite the surgical intervention, postoperative urinary tract infections (UTIs) occur in over 30% of cases within six months, adversely affecting recovery and increasing both clinical and economic burdens. Current prediction methods for postoperative UTIs rely on empirical judgment and limited clinical parameters, underscoring the need for a robust, multifactorial predictive model. We retrospectively analyzed data from 764 pediatric patients who underwent unilateral pyeloplasty at the Children's Hospital affiliated with the Capital Institute of Pediatrics between January 2012 and January 2023. A total of 25 clinical features were extracted, including patient demographics, medical history, surgical details, and various postoperative indicators. Feature engineering was initially performed, followed by a comparative analysis of five machine learning algorithms (Logistic Regression, SVM, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM) and the deep learning TabNet model. This comparison highlighted the respective strengths and limitations of traditional machine learning versus deep learning approaches. Building on these findings, we developed an ensemble learning model, meta-learner, that effectively integrates both methodologies, and utilized SHAP(Shapley Additive Explanation, SHAP) to complete the visualization of the integrated black-box model. Among the 764 pediatric pyeloplasty cases analyzed, 265 (34.7%) developed postoperative UTIs, predominantly within the first three months. Early UTIs significantly increased the likelihood of re-obstruction (P < 0.01), underscoring the critical impact of infection on surgical outcomes. In evaluating the performance of six algorithms, TabNet outperformed traditional models, with the order from lowest to highest as follows: Logistic Regression, SVM, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and TabNet. Feature engineering markedly improved the predictive accuracy of traditional models, as evidenced by the enhanced performance of LightGBM (Accuracy: 0.71, AUC: 0.78 post-engineering). The proposed ensemble approach, combining LightGBM and TabNet with a Logistic Regression meta-learner, achieved superior predictive accuracy (Accuracy: 0.80, AUC: 0.80) while reducing dependence on feature engineering. SHAP analysis further revealed eGFR and ALB as significant predictors of UTIs post-pyeloplasty, providing new clinical insights into risk factors. In summary, we have introduced the first ensemble prediction model, incorporating both machine learning and deep learning (meta-learner), to predict urinary tract infections following pediatric pyeloplasty. This ensemble approach mitigates the dependency of machine learning models on feature engineering while addressing the issue of overfitting in deep learning-based models like TabNet, particularly in the context of small medical datasets. By improving prediction accuracy, this model supports proactive interventions, reduces postoperative infections and re-obstruction rates, enhances pyeloplasty outcomes, and alleviates health and economic burdens.Level of evidence IV Case series with no comparison group.

Dynamic survival prediction of end-stage kidney disease using random survival forests for competing risk analysis

Background and hypothesis

A static predictive model relying solely on baseline clinicopathological data cannot capture the heterogeneity in predictor trajectories observed in the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). To address this, we developed and validated a dynamic survival prediction model using longitudinal clinicopathological data to predict end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), with death as a competing risk.

Methods

We trained a sequence of random survival forests using a landmarking approach and optimized the model with a pre-specified prediction horizon of 5 years. The predicted cumulative incidence function (CIF) values were used to generate a personalized dynamic prediction plot.

Results

The model was developed using baseline demographics and 13 longitudinal clinicopathological variables from 4,950 patients. Variable importance analysis for ESKD and death informed the creation of a sequence of reduced models that utilized six key variables: age, serum albumin, bicarbonate, chloride, eGFR, and hemoglobin. The models demonstrated robust predictive performance, with a median concordance index of 84.84% for ESKD and 84.1% for death. The median integrated Brier scores were 0.03 for ESKD and 0.038 for death across all landmark times. External validation with 8,729 patients confirmed these results.

Conclusion

We successfully developed and validated a dynamic survival prediction model using common longitudinal clinicopathological data. This model predicts ESKD with death as a competing risk and aims to assist clinicians in dialysis planning for patients with CKD.

Artificial intelligence in predicting chronic kidney disease prognosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common condition that can lead to serious health complications. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has shown the potential to improve the prediction of CKD progression, offering increased accuracy over traditional methods. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis examine the diagnostic performance of various AI models in predicting CKD.

METHOD

Search was performed in different databases for studies reporting the diagnostic accuracy of AI-based prediction models for the progression of CKD. Meanwhile, pre-defined eligibility criteria were used for the selection of studies. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under curve (AUC) were calculated utilizing Meta-disc 1.4. Quality assessment was performed using the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).

RESULTS

A total of 33 studies were included. The pooled sensitivity of prediction tools was 0.43 (95% CI, 0.41-0.44, I2 = 99.3%, p < 0.01). A significant difference (p < 0.01) was also observed in the pooled specificity 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.92, I2 = 99.5%). Positive likelihood ratio (PLP) and negative likelihood ratio (NLR) were 5.12 (95% CI: 3.60-7.27, I2 = 91.3%, p < 0.01) and 0.28 (95% CI: 0.21-0.37, I2 = 99.3%, p < 0.01), respectively and AUC was 0.89, suggesting a diagnostic accuracy of AI-based prediction models for the progression of CKD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the promising potential of AI models in predicting CKD progression. However, further efforts are needed to optimize model performance, particularly in balancing sensitivity and specificity to ensure generalizability across diverse populations. Limitations of this study include the potential for overfitting in certain AI models due to imbalanced datasets. The high heterogeneity and the lack of standardized predictors limit the generalizability of findings across different populations.

Development and internal and external validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of chronic kidney disease progression in IgA nephropathy patients

Background

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerular disease in chronic kidney disease (CKD), exhibiting significant heterogeneity in both clinical and pathological presentations. We aimed to explore the risk factors influencing short-term prognosis (≥90 days) and to construct a nomogram model for evaluating the risk of CKD progression in IgAN patients.

Methods

Clinical and pathological data of patients diagnosed with IgAN through biopsy at two centers were retrospectively collected. Logistic regression was employed to analyze the training cohort dataset and identify the independent predictors to construct a nomogram model based on the final variables. The predictive model was validated both internally and externally, with its performance assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Out of the patients in the modeling group, 129 individuals (41.6%) did not achieve remission following 3 months of treatment, indicating a high risk of CKD progression. A multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that body mass index, urinary protein excretion, and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis were identified as independent predictors for risk stratification. A nomogram model was formulated utilizing the final variables. The AUCs for the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.746 (95% confidence intervals (CI) [0.691-0.8]), 0.764 (95% CI [0.68-0.85]), and 0.749 (95% CI [0.65-0.85]), respectively. The validation of the subgroup analysis also demonstrated a satisfactory AUC.

Conclusion

This study developed and validated a practical nomogram that can individually predict short-term treatment outcomes (≥90 days) and the risk of CKD progression in IgAN patients. It provides reliable guidance for timely and personalized intervention and treatment strategies.

Representation of multimorbidity and frailty in the development and validation of kidney failure prognostic prediction models: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models that identify individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) at greatest risk of developing kidney failure help clinicians to make decisions and deliver precision medicine. It is recognised that people with CKD usually have multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) and often experience frailty. We undertook a systematic review to evaluate the representation and consideration of multimorbidity and frailty within CKD cohorts used to develop and/or validate prognostic models assessing the risk of kidney failure.

METHODS

We identified studies that described derivation, validation or update of kidney failure prognostic models in MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus and the Cochrane Library-CENTRAL. The primary outcome was representation of multimorbidity or frailty. The secondary outcome was predictive accuracy of identified models in relation to presence of multimorbidity or frailty.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven studies reporting 121 different kidney failure prognostic models were identified. Two studies reported prevalence of multimorbidity and a single study reported prevalence of frailty. The rates of specific comorbidities were reported in a greater proportion of studies: 67.0% reported baseline data on diabetes, 54.6% reported hypertension and 39.2% reported cardiovascular disease. No studies included frailty in model development, and only one study considered multimorbidity as a predictor variable. No studies assessed model performance in populations in relation to multimorbidity. A single study assessed associations between frailty and the risks of kidney failure and death.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a paucity of kidney failure risk prediction models that consider the impact of multimorbidity and/or frailty, resulting in a lack of clear evidence-based practice for multimorbid or frail individuals. These knowledge gaps should be explored to help clinicians know whether these models can be used for CKD patients who experience multimorbidity and/or frailty.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review has been registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022347295).

Derivation and Validation of a Machine Learning Model for the Prevention of Unplanned Dialysis

Key Points

Nearly half of all patients with CKD who progress to kidney failure initiate dialysis in an unplanned fashion, which is associated with poor outcomes. Machine learning models using routinely collected data can accurately predict 6- to 12-month kidney failure risk among the population with advanced CKD. These machine learning models retrospectively deliver advanced warning on a substantial proportion of unplanned dialysis events.

Background

Approximately half of all patients with advanced CKD who progress to kidney failure initiate dialysis in an unplanned fashion, which is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. A novel prediction model designed to identify patients with advanced CKD who are at high risk for developing kidney failure over short time frames (6–12 months) may help reduce the rates of unplanned dialysis and improve the quality of transitions from CKD to kidney failure.

Methods

We performed a retrospective study using machine learning random forest algorithms incorporating routinely collected age and sex data along with time-varying trends in laboratory measurements to derive and validate 6- and 12-month kidney failure risk prediction models in the population with advanced CKD. The models were comprehensively characterized in three independent cohorts in Ontario, Canada—derived in a cohort of 1849 consecutive patients with advanced CKD (mean [SD] age 66 [15] years, eGFR 19 [7] ml/min per 1.73 m2) and validated in two external advanced CKD cohorts (n =1356; age 69 [14] years, eGFR 22 [7] ml/min per 1.73 m2).

Results

Across all cohorts, 55% of patients experienced kidney failure, of whom 35% involved unplanned dialysis. The 6- and 12-month models demonstrated excellent discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 0.89) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.86 to 0.87) along with high probabilistic accuracy with the Brier scores of 0.10 (95% CI, 0.09 to 0.10) and 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.14), respectively. The models were also well calibrated and delivered timely alerts on a significant number of patients who ultimately initiated dialysis in an unplanned fashion. Similar results were found upon external validation testing.

Conclusions

These machine learning models using routinely collected patient data accurately predict near-future kidney failure risk among the population with advanced CKD and retrospectively deliver advanced warning on a substantial proportion of unplanned dialysis events. Optimal implementation strategies still need to be elucidated.

Blood and urine biomarkers of disease progression in IgA nephropathy

The prognosis of patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is variable but overall not good. Almost all patients with IgAN are at risk of developing end-stage renal disease within their expected lifetime. The models presently available for prediction of the risk of progression of IgAN, including the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool, consist of traditional clinical, pathological, and therapeutic indicators. Finding biomarkers to improve the existing risk prediction models or replace pathological indicators is important for clinical practice. Many studies have attempted to identify biomarkers for prediction of progression of IgAN, such as galactose-deficient IgA1, complement, a spectrum of protein biomarkers, non-coding RNA, and shedding cells. This article reviews the biomarkers of progression of IgAN identified in recent years, with a focus on those with clinical value, in particular the combination of multiple biomarkers into a biomarker spectrum. Future research should focus on establishing a model based primarily on biomarkers that can predict progression of IgAN and testing it in various patient cohorts.

Integrated multi-omics with machine learning to uncover the intricacies of kidney disease

The development of omics technologies has driven a profound expansion in the scale of biological data and the increased complexity in internal dimensions, prompting the utilization of machine learning (ML) as a powerful toolkit for extracting knowledge and understanding underlying biological patterns. Kidney disease represents one of the major growing global health threats with intricate pathogenic mechanisms and a lack of precise molecular pathology-based therapeutic modalities. Accordingly, there is a need for advanced high-throughput approaches to capture implicit molecular features and complement current experiments and statistics. This review aims to delineate strategies for integrating multi-omics data with appropriate ML methods, highlighting key clinical translational scenarios, including predicting disease progression risks to improve medical decision-making, comprehensively understanding disease molecular mechanisms, and practical applications of image recognition in renal digital pathology. Examining the benefits and challenges of current integration efforts is expected to shed light on the complexity of kidney disease and advance clinical practice.

Machine learning-based diagnosis and prognosis of IgAN: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Plenty of studies have explored the diagnosis and prognosis of IgA nephropathy (IgAN) based on machine learning (ML), but the accuracy lacks the support of evidence-based medical evidence. We aim at this problem to guide the precision treatment of IgAN.

Methods

Embase, Pubmed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science were searched systematically until February 24th, 2024, for publications on ML-based diagnosis and prognosis of IgAN. Subgroup analysis or meta-regression was conducted according to modeling method, follow-up time, endpoint definition, and variable type. Further, the rank sum test was applied to compare the discrimination ability of prognosis.

Results

A total of 47 studies involving 51,935 patients were eligible. Among the 38 diagnostic models, the pooled C-index was 0.902 (95 % CI: 0.878-0.926) in 27 diagnostic models. Of the 162 prognostic models, the C-index for model discrimination of 144 prognostic models was 0.838 (95 % CI: 0.827-0.850) in training. The overall discrimination ability of prognosis was as follows: COX regression > new ML models (e.g. ANN, DT, RF, SVM, XGBoost) > traditional ML models (logistic regression) > Naïve Bayesian network (P < 0.05). External validation of IIgAN-RPT in 19 models showed a pooled C-index of 0.801 (95 % CI: 0.784-0.817).

Conclusions

New ML models have shown application values that are as good as traditional ML models, both in diagnosis and prognosis. In addition, future models are desired to use a more sensitive prognostic endpoint (albuminuria), improve predictive ability in moderate progression risk, and ultimately translate into clinically applicable intelligent tools.

A Klotho-Based Machine Learning Model for Prediction of both Kidney and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease

Introduction

This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models based on serum Klotho for predicting end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Methods

Five different ML models were trained to predict the risk of ESKD and CVD at three different time points (3, 5, and 8 years) using a cohort of 400 non-dialysis CKD patients. The dataset was divided into a training set (70%) and an internal validation set (30%). These models were informed by data comprising 47 clinical features, including serum Klotho. The best-performing model was selected and used to identify risk factors for each outcome. Model performance was assessed using various metrics.

Results

The findings showed that the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model had the highest accuracy (C-index = 0.71) in predicting ESKD. The features mainly included in this model were estimated glomerular filtration rate, 24-h urinary microalbumin, serum albumin, phosphate, parathyroid hormone, and serum Klotho, which achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) of 0.930 (95% CI: 0.897-0.962). In addition, for the CVD risk prediction, the random survival forest model with the highest accuracy (C-index = 0.66) was selected and achieved the highest AUC of 0.782 (95% CI: 0.633-0.930). The features mainly included in this model were age, history of primary hypertension, calcium, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and serum Klotho.

Conclusion

We successfully developed and validated Klotho-based ML risk prediction models for CVD and ESKD in CKD patients with good performance, indicating their high clinical utility.

Personalized decision support system for tailoring IgA nephropathy treatment strategies

BACKGROUND

The ongoing debate surrounding the use of immunosuppressive treatments for IgA nephropathy (IgAN) underscores the demand for personalized and effective strategies.

METHODS

Analyzed data from 807 IgAN patients over 5+ years using three methods: Random Forest with molecular biomarkers, network biomarkers with graph engineering, and an auto-encoder model. All models were trained using identical demographic, clinical, and pathological data, employing an 80-20 split for training and testing purposes.

RESULTS

In the comprehensive assessment of IgAN prognosis, the Random Forest model, employing molecular biomarkers, demonstrated strong performance metrics (AUC = 0.83, sensitivity = 0.51, specificity = 0.96). However, traditional graph feature engineering on patient-specific networks outperformed these results with an AUC of 0.90, sensitivity of 0.64, and specificity of 0.94. The Auto-encoder model showed the best accuracy (AUC = 0.91, sensitivity = 0.46, specificity = 0.96). The findings highlighted the superior predictive capabilities of network biomarkers over molecular biomarkers for adverse renal outcome prediction in IgAN. Consequently, we integrated Auto-encoder-derived Network Biomarkers with Random Forest Models to enhance prognostic precision in diverse IgAN treatment scenarios. The prediction for the prognosis of patients receiving supportive care, glucocorticoid therapy, and immunosuppressant treatment yielded AUC values of 0.95, 0.96, and 1, respectively, indicating high specificity. Drawing from these insights, we pioneered the development of an innovative decision support model for IgAN treatment. This model demonstrated the ability to make medical decisions comparable to those by experienced nephrologists, enabling the customization of personalized disease management strategies.

CONCLUSION

Our system accurately predicted IgAN prognosis and evaluated various treatment efficacies, aiding physicians in devising optimal therapeutic strategies for patients.

Glomerular transcriptomics predicts long term outcome and identifies therapeutic strategies for patients with assumed benign IgA nephropathy

Some patients diagnosed with benign IgA nephropathy (IgAN) develop a progressive clinical course, not predictable by known clinical or histopathological parameters. To assess if gene expression can differentiate between progressors and non-progressors with assumed benign IgAN, we tested microdissected glomeruli from archival kidney biopsy sections from adult patients with stable clinical remission (21 non-progressors) or from 15 patients that had undergone clinical progression within a 25-year time frame. Based on 1 240 differentially expressed genes from patients with suitable sequencing results, we identified eight IgAN progressor and nine non-progressor genes using a two-component classifier. These genes, including APOL5 and ZXDC, predicted disease progression with 88% accuracy, 75% sensitivity and 100% specificity on average 21.6 years before progressive disease was clinically documented. APOL lipoproteins are associated with inflammation, autophagy and kidney disease while ZXDC is a zinc-finger transcription factor modulating adaptive immunity. Ten genes from our transcriptomics data overlapped with an external genome wide association study dataset, although the gene set enrichment test was not statistically significant. We also identified 45 drug targets in the DrugBank database, including angiotensinogen, a target of sparsentan (dual antagonist of the endothelin type A receptor and the angiotensin II type 1 receptor) currently investigated for IgAN treatment. Two validation cohorts were used for substantiating key results, one by immunohistochemistry and the other by nCounter technology. Thus, glomerular mRNA sequencing from diagnostic kidney biopsies from patients with assumed benign IgAN can differentiate between future progressors and non-progressors at the time of diagnosis.

Interpretable machine learning model to predict surgical difficulty in laparoscopic resection for rectal cancer

Background

Laparoscopic total mesorectal excision (LaTME) is standard surgical methods for rectal cancer, and LaTME operation is a challenging procedure. This study is intended to use machine learning to develop and validate prediction models for surgical difficulty of LaTME in patients with rectal cancer and compare these models' performance.

Methods

We retrospectively collected the preoperative clinical and MRI pelvimetry parameter of rectal cancer patients who underwent laparoscopic total mesorectal resection from 2017 to 2022. The difficulty of LaTME was defined according to the scoring criteria reported by Escal. Patients were randomly divided into training group (80%) and test group (20%). We selected independent influencing features using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression method. Adopt synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) to alleviate the class imbalance problem. Six machine learning model were developed: light gradient boosting machine (LGBM); categorical boosting (CatBoost); extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), logistic regression (LR); random forests (RF); multilayer perceptron (MLP). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and F1 score were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis provided interpretation for the best machine learning model. Further decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical manifestations of the model.

Results

A total of 626 patients were included. LASSO regression analysis shows that tumor height, prognostic nutrition index (PNI), pelvic inlet, pelvic outlet, sacrococcygeal distance, mesorectal fat area and angle 5 (the angle between the apex of the sacral angle and the lower edge of the pubic bone) are the predictor variables of the machine learning model. In addition, the correlation heatmap shows that there is no significant correlation between these seven variables. When predicting the difficulty of LaTME surgery, the XGBoost model performed best among the six machine learning models (AUROC=0.855). Based on the decision curve analysis (DCA) results, the XGBoost model is also superior, and feature importance analysis shows that tumor height is the most important variable among the seven factors.

Conclusions

This study developed an XGBoost model to predict the difficulty of LaTME surgery. This model can help clinicians quickly and accurately predict the difficulty of surgery and adopt individualized surgical methods.

Mortality prediction with adaptive feature importance recalibration for peritoneal dialysis patients

The study aims to develop AICare, an interpretable mortality prediction model, using electronic medical records (EMR) from follow-up visits for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. AICare includes a multichannel feature extraction module and an adaptive feature importance recalibration module. It integrates dynamic records and static features to perform personalized health context representation learning. The dataset encompasses 13,091 visits and demographic data of 656 peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients spanning 12 years. An additional public dataset of 4,789 visits from 1,363 hemodialysis (HD) patients is also considered. AICare outperforms traditional deep learning models in mortality prediction while retaining interpretability. It uncovers mortality-feature relationships and variations in feature importance and provides reference values. An AI-doctor interaction system is developed for visualizing patients' health trajectories and risk indicators.

Long-term follow-up of IgA nephropathy: clinicopathological features and predictors of outcomes

Background

The establishment of the Oxford classification and newly developed prediction models have improved the prognostic information for immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN). Considering new treatment options, optimizing prognostic information and improving existing prediction models are favorable.

Methods

We used random forest survival analysis to select possible predictors of end-stage kidney disease among 37 candidate variables in a cohort of 232 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN retrieved from the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry. The predictive value of variables with relative importance >5% was assessed using concordance statistics and the Akaike information criterion. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to identify correlations between the selected variables.

Results

The median follow-up period was 13.7 years. An isolated analysis of histological variables identified six variables with relative importance >5%: T %, segmental glomerular sclerosis without characteristics associated with other subtypes (not otherwise specified, NOS), normal glomeruli, global sclerotic glomeruli, segmental adherence and perihilar glomerular sclerosis. When histopathological and clinical variables were combined, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria and serum albumin were added to the list. T % showed a better prognostic value than tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis (T) lesions with C-indices at 0.74 and 0.67 and was highly correlated with eGFR. Analysis of the subtypes of segmental glomerulosclerosis (S) lesions revealed that NOS and perihilar glomerular sclerosis were associated with adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

Reporting T lesions as a continuous variable, normal glomeruli and subtypes of S lesions could provide clinicians with additional prognostic information and contribute to the improved performance of the Oxford classification and prognostic tools.

Artificial intelligence: a new field of knowledge for nephrologists?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a science that involves creating machines that can imitate human intelligence and learn. AI is ubiquitous in our daily lives, from search engines like Google to home assistants like Alexa and, more recently, OpenAI with its chatbot. AI can improve clinical care and research, but its use requires a solid understanding of its fundamentals, the promises and perils of algorithmic fairness, the barriers and solutions to its clinical implementation, and the pathways to developing an AI-competent workforce. The potential of AI in the field of nephrology is vast, particularly in the areas of diagnosis, treatment and prediction. One of the most significant advantages of AI is the ability to improve diagnostic accuracy. Machine learning algorithms can be trained to recognize patterns in patient data, including lab results, imaging and medical history, in order to identify early signs of kidney disease and thereby allow timely diagnoses and prompt initiation of treatment plans that can improve outcomes for patients. In short, AI holds the promise of advancing personalized medicine to new levels. While AI has tremendous potential, there are also significant challenges to its implementation, including data access and quality, data privacy and security, bias, trustworthiness, computing power, AI integration and legal issues. The European Commission's proposed regulatory framework for AI technology will play a significant role in ensuring the safe and ethical implementation of these technologies in the healthcare industry. Training nephrologists in the fundamentals of AI is imperative because traditionally, decision-making pertaining to the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of renal patients has relied on ingrained practices, whereas AI serves as a powerful tool for swiftly and confidently synthesizing this information.

Understanding patient needs and predicting outcomes in IgA nephropathy using data analytics and artificial intelligence: a narrative review

This narrative review explores two case scenarios related to immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) and the application of predictive monitoring, big data analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) in improving treatment outcomes. The first scenario discusses how online service providers accurately understand consumer preferences and needs through the use of AI-powered big data analysis. The author, a clinical nephrologist, contemplates the potential application of similar methodologies, including AI, in his medical practice to better understand and meet patient needs. The second scenario presents a case study of a 20-year-old man with IgAN. The patient exhibited recurring symptoms, including gross haematuria and tonsillitis, over a 2-year period. Through histological examination and treatment with renin-angiotensin system blockade and corticosteroids, the patient experienced significant improvement in kidney function and reduced proteinuria over 15 years of follow-up. The case highlights the importance of individualized treatment strategies and the use of predictive tools, such as AI-based predictive models, in assessing treatment response and predicting long-term outcomes in IgAN patients. The article further discusses the collection and analysis of real-world big data, including electronic health records, for studying disease natural history, predicting treatment responses and identifying prognostic biomarkers. Challenges in integrating data from various sources and issues such as missing data and data processing limitations are also addressed. Mathematical models, including logistic regression and Cox regression analysis, are discussed for predicting clinical outcomes and analysing changes in variables over time. Additionally, the application of machine learning algorithms, including AI techniques, in analysing big data and predicting outcomes in IgAN is explored. In conclusion, the article highlights the potential benefits of leveraging AI-powered big data analysis, predictive monitoring and machine learning algorithms to enhance patient care and improve treatment outcomes in IgAN.

Evaluating Progression Risk in Patients With Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy

The highly variable rate of decline in kidney function in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) provides a major clinical challenge. Predicting which patients will progress to kidney failure, and how quickly, is difficult. Multiple novel therapies are likely to be approved in the short-term, but clinicians lack the tools to identify patients most likely to benefit from specific treatments at the right time. Noninvasive and validated markers for selecting at-risk patients and longitudinal monitoring are urgently needed. This review summarizes what is known about demographic, clinical, and histopathologic prognostic markers in the clinician's toolkit, including the International IgAN Prediction Tool. We also briefly review what is known on these topics in children and adolescents with IgAN. Although helpful, currently used markers leave clinicians heavily reliant on histologic features from the diagnostic kidney biopsy and standard clinical data to guide treatment choice, and very few noninvasive markers reflect treatment efficacy over time. Novel prognostic and predictive markers are under clinical investigation, with considerable progress being made in markers of complement activation. Other areas of research are the interplay between gut microbiota and galactose-deficient IgA1 expression; microRNAs; imaging; artificial intelligence; and markers of fibrosis. Given the rate of therapeutic advancement, the remaining gaps in biomarker research need to be addressed. We finish by describing our route to clinical utility of predictive and prognostic markers in IgAN. This route will provide us with the chance to improve IgAN prognosis by using robust, clinically practical markers to inform patient care.

Short Timeframe Prediction of Kidney Failure among Patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND

Development of a short timeframe (6-12 months) kidney failure risk prediction model may serve to improve transitions from advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) to kidney failure and reduce rates of unplanned dialysis. The optimal model for short timeframe kidney failure risk prediction remains unknown.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 1757 consecutive patients with advanced CKD (mean age 66 years, estimated glomerular filtration rate 18 mL/min/1.73 m2). We compared the performance of Cox regression models using (a) baseline variables alone, (b) time-varying variables and machine learning models, (c) random survival forest, (d) random forest classifier in the prediction of kidney failure over 6/12/24 months. Performance metrics included area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and maximum precision at 70% recall (PrRe70). Top-performing models were applied to 2 independent external cohorts.

RESULTS

Compared to the baseline Cox model, the machine learning and time-varying Cox models demonstrated higher 6-month performance [Cox baseline: AUC-ROC 0.85 (95% CI 0.84-0.86), PrRe70 0.53 (95% CI 0.51-0.55); Cox time-varying: AUC-ROC 0.88 (95% CI 0.87-0.89), PrRe70 0.62 (95% CI 0.60-0.64); random survival forest: AUC-ROC 0.87 (95% CI 0.86-0.88), PrRe70 0.61 (95% CI 0.57-0.64); random forest classifier AUC-ROC 0.88 (95% CI 0.87-0.89), PrRe70 0.62 (95% CI 0.59-0.65)]. These trends persisted, but were less pronounced, at 12 months. The random forest classifier was the highest performing model at 6 and 12 months. At 24 months, all models performed similarly. Model performance did not significantly degrade upon external validation.

CONCLUSIONS

When predicting kidney failure over short timeframes among patients with advanced CKD, machine learning incorporating time-updated data provides enhanced performance compared with traditional Cox models.

Machine learning-based intradialytic hypotension prediction of patients undergoing hemodialysis: A multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Intradialytic hypotension (IDH) is closely associated with adverse clinical outcomes in HD-patients. An IDH predictor model is important for IDH risk screening and clinical decision-making. In this study, we used Machine learning (ML) to develop IDH model for risk prediction in HD patients.

METHODS

62,227 dialysis sessions were randomly partitioned into training data (70%), test data (20%), and validation data (10%). IDH-A model based on twenty-seven variables was constructed for risk prediction for the next HD treatment. IDH-B model based on ten variables from 64,870 dialysis sessions was developed for risk assessment before each HD treatment. Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Linear Discriminant Analysis, support vector machines, XGBoost, TabNet, and multilayer perceptron were used to develop the predictor model.

RESULTS

In IDH-A model, we identified the LightGBM method as the best-performing and interpretable model with C- statistics of 0.82 in Fall30Nadir90 definitions, which was higher than those obtained using the other models (P<0.01). In other IDH standards of Nadir90, Nadir100, Fall20, Fall30, and Fall20Nadir90, the LightGBM method had a performance with C- statistics ranged 0.77 to 0.89. As a complementary application, the LightGBM model in IDH-B model achieved C- statistics of 0.68 in Fall30Nadir90 definitions and 0.69 to 0.78 in the other five IDH standards, which were also higher than the other methods, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Use ML, we identified the LightGBM method as the good-performing and interpretable model. We identified the top variables as the high-risk factors for IDH incident in HD-patient. IDH-A and IDH-B model can usefully complement each other for risk prediction and further facilitate timely intervention through applied into different clinical setting.

Validation of the international IgA nephropathy prediction tool in a French cohort beyond 10 years after diagnosis

INTRODUCTION

The International IgA Nephropathy Network developed a tool (IINN-PT) for predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a 50% decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We aimed to validate this tool in a French cohort with longer follow-up than previously published validation studies.

METHODS

The predicted survival of patients with biopsy-proven immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) from the Saint Etienne University Hospital cohort was computed with IINN-PT models with or without ethnicity. The primary outcome was the occurrence of either ESRD or a 50% decline in eGFR. The models' performances were evaluated through c-statistics, discrimination and calibration analysis.

RESULTS

There were 473 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN, with a median follow-up of 12.4 years. Models with and without ethnicity showed areas under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.817 (0.765; 0.869) and 0.833 (0.791; 0.875) and R2D of 0.28 and 0.29, respectively, and an excellent discrimination of groups of increasing predicted risk (P < .001). The calibration analysis was good for both models up to 15 years after diagnosis. The model without ethnicity exhibited a mathematical issue of survival function after 15 years.

DISCUSSION

The IINN-PT provided good performances even after 10 years post-biopsy as showed by our study based on a cohort with a longer follow-up than previous cohorts (12.4 versus <6 years). The model without ethnicity exhibited better performances up to 15 years but became aberrant beyond this point due to a mathematical issue affecting the survival function. Our study sheds light on the usefulness of integrating ethnicity as a covariable for prediction of IgAN course.

Machine learning in predicting T-score in the Oxford classification system of IgA nephropathy

Background

Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is one of the leading causes of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Many studies have shown the significance of pathological manifestations in predicting the outcome of patients with IgAN, especially T-score of Oxford classification. Evaluating prognosis may be hampered in patients without renal biopsy.

Methods

A baseline dataset of 690 patients with IgAN and an independent follow-up dataset of 1,168 patients were used as training and testing sets to develop the pathology T-score prediction (T pre) model based on the stacking algorithm, respectively. The 5-year ESKD prediction models using clinical variables (base model), clinical variables and real pathological T-score (base model plus T bio), and clinical variables and T pre (base model plus T pre) were developed separately in 1,168 patients with regular follow-up to evaluate whether T pre could assist in predicting ESKD. In addition, an external validation set consisting of 355 patients was used to evaluate the performance of the 5-year ESKD prediction model using T pre.

Results

The features selected by AUCRF for the T pre model included age, systolic arterial pressure, diastolic arterial pressure, proteinuria, eGFR, serum IgA, and uric acid. The AUC of the T pre was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80-0.85) in an independent testing set. For the 5-year ESKD prediction model, the AUC of the base model was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.97). When the T bio was added to the base model, there was an increase in AUC [from 0.86 (95% CI: 0.75-0.97) to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.85-0.98); P = 0.03]. There was no difference in AUC between the base model plus T pre and the base model plus T bio [0.90 (95% CI: 0.82-0.99) vs. 0.92 (95% CI: 0.85-0.98), P = 0.52]. The AUC of the 5-year ESKD prediction model using T pre was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99) in the external validation set.

Conclusion

A pathology T-score prediction (T pre) model using routine clinical characteristics was constructed, which could predict the pathological severity and assist clinicians to predict the prognosis of IgAN patients lacking kidney pathology scores.

Acute Oncologic Complications: Clinical-Therapeutic Management in Critical Care and Emergency Departments

Introduction. It is now known that cancer is a major public health problem; on the other hand, it is less known, or rather, often underestimated, that a significant percentage of cancer patients will experience a cancer-related emergency. These conditions, depending on the severity, may require treatment in intensive care or in the emergency departments. In addition, it is not uncommon for a tumor pathology to manifest itself directly, in the first instance, with a related emergency. The emergency unit proves to be a fundamental and central unit in the management of cancer patients. Many cancer cases are diagnosed in the first instance as a result of symptoms that lead the patient's admittance into the emergency room. Materials and Methods. This narrative review aims to analyze the impact of acute oncological cases in the emergency setting and the role of the emergency physician in their management. A search was conducted over the period January 1981-April 2023 using the main scientific platforms, including PubMed, Scopus, Medline, Embase and Google scholar, and 156 papers were analyzed. Results. To probe into the main oncological emergencies and their management in increasingly overcrowded emergency departments, we analyzed the following acute pathologies: neurological emergencies, metabolic and endocrinological emergencies, vascular emergencies, malignant effusions, neutropenic fever and anemia. Discussion/Conclusions. Our analysis found that a redefinition of the emergency department connected with the treatment of oncology patients is necessary, considering not only the treatment of the oncological disease in the strict sense, but also the comorbidities, the oncological emergencies and the palliative care setting. The need to redesign an emergency department that is able to manage acute oncological cases and end of life appears clear, especially when this turns out to be related to severe effects that cannot be managed at home with integrated home care. In conclusion, a redefinition of the paradigm appears mandatory, such as the integration between the various specialists belonging to oncological medicine and the emergency department. Therefore, our work aims to provide what can be a handbook to detect, diagnose and treat oncological emergencies, hoping for patient management in a multidisciplinary perspective, which could also lead to the regular presence of an oncologist in the emergency room.

Deep Learning Identifies Intelligible Predictors of Poor Prognosis in Chronic Kidney Disease

Early diagnosis and prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progress within a given duration are critical to ensure personalized treatment, which could improve patients' quality of life and prolong survival time. In this study, we explore the intelligibility of machine-learning and deep-learning models on end-stage renal disease (ESRD) prediction, based on readily-accessible clinical and laboratory features of patients suffering from CKD. Eight machine learning models were used to predict whether a patient suffering from CKD would progress to ESRD within three years based on demographics, clinical,and comorbidity information. LASSO, random forest, and XGBoost were used to identify the most significant markers. In addition, we introduced four advanced attribution methods to the deep learning model to enhance model intelligibility. The deep learning model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.8991, which was significantly higher than that of baseline models. The interpretation generated by deep learning with attribution methods, random forest, and XGBoost was consistent with clinical knowledge, whereas LASSO-based interpretation was inconsistent. Hematuria, proteinuria, potassium, urine albumin to creatinine ratio were positively associated with the progression of CKD, while eGFR and urine creatinine were negatively associated. In conclusion, deep learning with attribution algorithms could identify intelligible features of CKD progression. Our model identified a number of critical, but under-reported features, which may be novel markers for CKD progression. This study provides physicians with solid data-driven evidence for using machine learning for CKD clinical management and treatment.

Predicting dry weight change in Hemodialysis patients using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Machine Learning has been increasingly used in the medical field, including managing patients undergoing hemodialysis. The random forest classifier is a Machine Learning method that can generate high accuracy and interpretability in the data analysis of various diseases. We attempted to apply Machine Learning to adjust dry weight, the appropriate volume status of patients undergoing hemodialysis, which requires a complex decision-making process considering multiple indicators and the patient's physical conditions.

METHODS

All medical data and 69,375 dialysis records of 314 Asian patients undergoing hemodialysis at a single dialysis center in Japan between July 2018 and April 2020 were collected from the electronic medical record system. Using the random forest classifier, we developed models to predict the probabilities of adjusting the dry weight at each dialysis session.

RESULTS

The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves of the models for adjusting the dry weight upward and downward were 0.70 and 0.74, respectively. The average probability of upward adjustment of the dry weight had sharp a peak around the actual change over time, while the average probability of downward adjustment of the dry weight formed a gradual peak. Feature importance analysis revealed that median blood pressure decline was a strong predictor for adjusting the dry weight upward. In contrast, elevated serum levels of C-reactive protein and hypoalbuminemia were important indicators for adjusting the dry weight downward.

CONCLUSIONS

The random forest classifier should provide a helpful guide to predict the optimal changes to the dry weight with relative accuracy and may be useful in clinical practice.

A back propagation neural network approach to estimate the glomerular filtration rate in an older population

BACKGROUND

The use of creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations to evaluate kidney function in elderly individuals does not appear to offer any performance advantages. We therefore aimed to develop an accurate GFR-estimating tool for this age group.

METHODS

Adults aged ≥ 65 years who underwent GFR measurement by technetium-99 m-diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (^99mTc-DTPA) renal dynamic imaging were included. Data were randomly split into a training set containing 80% of the participants and a test set containing the remaining 20% of the subjects. The Back propagation neural network (BPNN) approach was used to derive a novel GFR estimation tool; then we compared the performance of the BPNN tool with six creatinine-based equations (Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI], European Kidney Function Consortium [EKFC], Berlin Initiative Study-1 [BIS1], Lund-Malmö Revised [LMR], Asian modified CKD-EPI, and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD]) in the test cohort. Three equation performance criteria were considered: bias (difference between measured GFR and estimated GFR), precision (interquartile range [IQR] of the median difference), and accuracy P30 (percentage of GFR estimates that are within 30% of measured GFR).

RESULTS

The study included 1,222 older adults. The mean age of both the training cohort (n = 978) and the test cohort (n = 244) was 72 ± 6 years, with 544 (55.6%) and 129 (52.9%) males, respectively. The median bias of BPNN was 2.06 ml/min/1.73 m², which was smaller than that of LMR (4.59 ml/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.03), and higher than that of the Asian modified CKD-EPI (-1.43 ml/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.02). The median bias between BPNN and each of CKD-EPI (2.19 ml/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.31), EKFC (-1.41 ml/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.26), BIS1 (0.64 ml/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.99), and MDRD (1.11 ml/min/1.73 m²; p = 0.45) was not significant. However, the BPNN had the highest precision IQR (14.31 ml/min/1.73 m²) and the greatest accuracy P30 among all equations (78.28%). At measured GFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m², the BPNN has highest accuracy P30 (70.69%), and highest precision IQR (12.46 ml/min/1.73 m²). The biases of BPNN and BIS1 equations were similar (0.74 [-1.55-2.78] and 0.24 [-2.58-1.61], respectively), smaller than any other equation.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel BPNN tool is more accurate than the currently available creatinine-based GFR estimation equations in an older population and could be recommended for routine clinical use.

Long-term outcomes of add-on direct renin inhibition in igA nephropathy: a propensity score-matched cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The long-term clinical outcomes in biopsy proven IgAN patients treated with aliskiren on top of a maximally tolerated dose of ACEi/ARB remain unknown.

METHODS

Patients with IgAN treated with a direct renin inhibitor and ACEi/ARB for at least 6 months were compared with a 1:1 propensityscore-matched cohort (including MEST-C score and the 12-months pre-exposure slope of eGFR matching) who received ACEi/ARB without aliskiren exposure to compute the hazard ratio of reaching the primary endpoint of a composite of 40% reduction in eGFR, initiation of KRT and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome measures included changes in mean UPCR, blood pressure, eGFR, incidence of hyperkalemia and other adverse events during follow-up.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 8/36 (22.2%) aliskiren-treated patients and 6/36 (16.7%) control patients reached the primary composite outcome (HR = 1.60; 95% CI 0.52-4.88; P = 0.412). Aliskiren treatment increased the risk of ≥ 40% eGFR decline (HR = 1.60; 95% CI 0.52-4.88; P = 0.412), and hyperkalemia (HR = 8.60; 95% CI 0.99-73.64; P = 0.050). At 10.8 years, renal composite outcome was reached in 69.4% vs 58.3% (HR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.18-3.98; P = 0.013) of patients in the aliskiren and control groups, respectively. The mean UPCR reduction between treatment and control was not statistically different (52.7% vs 42.5%; 95% CI 0.63-2.35; P = 0.556). The mean intergroup difference in eGFR decline over 60 months was 7.75 ± 3.95 ml/min/1.73 m² greater in the aliskiren group (12.83 vs 5.08; 95% CI - 0.17 to 15.66; P = 0.055).

CONCLUSION

Among patients with IgAN, add-on aliskiren was associated with less favorable long-term kidney outcomes despite an initial anti-proteinuric effect.

Predict, diagnose, and treat chronic kidney disease with machine learning: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVES

In this systematic review we aimed at assessing how artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning (ML) techniques have been deployed to predict, diagnose, and treat chronic kidney disease (CKD). We systematically reviewed the available evidence on these innovative techniques to improve CKD diagnosis and patient management.

METHODS

We included English language studies retrieved from PubMed. The review is therefore to be classified as a "rapid review", since it includes one database only, and has language restrictions; the novelty and importance of the issue make missing relevant papers unlikely. We extracted 16 variables, including: main aim, studied population, data source, sample size, problem type (regression, classification), predictors used, and performance metrics. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) approach; all main steps were done in duplicate.

RESULTS

From a total of 648 studies initially retrieved, 68 articles met the inclusion criteria. Models, as reported by authors, performed well, but the reported metrics were not homogeneous across articles and therefore direct comparison was not feasible. The most common aim was prediction of prognosis, followed by diagnosis of CKD. Algorithm generalizability, and testing on diverse populations was rarely taken into account. Furthermore, the clinical evaluation and validation of the models/algorithms was perused; only a fraction of the included studies, 6 out of 68, were performed in a clinical context.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning is a promising tool for the prediction of risk, diagnosis, and therapy management for CKD patients. Nonetheless, future work is needed to address the interpretability, generalizability, and fairness of the models to ensure the safe application of such technologies in routine clinical practice.

ESKD Risk Prediction Model in a Multicenter Chronic Kidney Disease Cohort in China: A Derivation, Validation, and Comparison Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In light of the growing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD), it is of particular importance to create disease prediction models that can assist healthcare providers in identifying cases of CKD individual risk and integrate risk-based care for disease progress management. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new pragmatic end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) risk prediction utilizing the Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) and machine learning (ML).

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND MEASUREMENTS

The Chinese Cohort Study of Chronic Kidney Disease (C-STRIDE), a multicenter CKD cohort in China, was employed as the model's training and testing datasets, with a split ratio of 7:3. A cohort from Peking University First Hospital (PKUFH cohort) served as the external validation dataset. The participants' laboratory tests in those cohorts were conducted at PKUFH. We included individuals with CKD stages 1~4 at baseline. The incidence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) was defined as the outcome. We constructed the Peking University-CKD (PKU-CKD) risk prediction model employing the Cox and ML methods, which include extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and survival support vector machine (SSVM). These models discriminate metrics by applying Harrell's concordance index (Harrell's C-index) and Uno's concordance (Uno's C). The calibration performance was measured by the Brier score and plots.

RESULTS

Of the 3216 C-STRIDE and 342 PKUFH participants, 411 (12.8%) and 25 (7.3%) experienced KRT with mean follow-up periods of 4.45 and 3.37 years, respectively. The features included in the PKU-CKD model were age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR), albumin, hemoglobin, medical history of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), and hypertension. In the test dataset, the values of the Cox model for Harrell's C-index, Uno's C-index, and Brier score were 0.834, 0.833, and 0.065, respectively. The XGBoost algorithm values for these metrics were 0.826, 0.825, and 0.066, respectively. The SSVM model yielded values of 0.748, 0.747, and 0.070, respectively, for the above parameters. The comparative analysis revealed no significant difference between XGBoost and Cox, in terms of Harrell's C, Uno's C, and the Brier score (p = 0.186, 0.213, and 0.41, respectively) in the test dataset. The SSVM model was significantly inferior to the previous two models (p < 0.001), in terms of discrimination and calibration. The validation dataset showed that XGBoost was superior to Cox, regarding Harrell's C, Uno's C, and the Brier score (p = 0.003, 0.027, and 0.032, respectively), while Cox and SSVM were almost identical concerning these three parameters (p = 0.102, 0.092, and 0.048, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a new ESKD risk prediction model for patients with CKD, employing commonly measured indicators in clinical practice, and its overall performance was satisfactory. The conventional Cox regression and certain ML models exhibited equal accuracy in predicting the course of CKD.

Integration of artificial intelligence and multi-omics in kidney diseases

Kidney disease is a leading cause of death worldwide. Currently, the diagnosis of kidney diseases and the grading of their severity are mainly based on clinical features, which do not reveal the underlying molecular pathways. More recent surge of ∼omics studies has greatly catalyzed disease research. The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) has opened the avenue for the efficient integration and interpretation of big datasets for discovering clinically actionable knowledge. This review discusses how AI and multi-omics can be applied and integrated, to offer opportunities to develop novel diagnostic and therapeutic means in kidney diseases. The combination of new technology and novel analysis pipelines can lead to breakthroughs in expanding our understanding of disease pathogenesis, shedding new light on biomarkers and disease classification, as well as providing possibilities of precise treatment.

Racial heterogeneity of IgA1 hinge-region O-glycoforms in patients with IgA nephropathy

Galactose (Gal)-deficient IgA1 (Gd-IgA1) is involved in IgA nephropathy (IgAN) pathogenesis. To reflect racial differences in clinical characteristics, we assessed disease- and race-specific heterogeneity in the O-glycosylation of the IgA1 hinge region (HR). We determined serum Gd-IgA1 levels in Caucasians (healthy controls [HCs], n = 31; IgAN patients, n = 63) and Asians (HCs, n = 20; IgAN patients, n = 60) and analyzed profiles of serum IgA1 HR O-glycoforms. Elevated serum Gd-IgA1 levels and reduced number of Gal residues per HR were observed in Caucasians. Reduced number of N-acetylgalactosamine (GalNAc) residues per HR and elevated relative abundance of IgA1 with three HR O-glycans were common features in IgAN patients; these features were associated with elevated blood pressure and reduced renal function. We speculate that the mechanisms underlying the reduced GalNAc content in IgA1 HR may be relevant to IgAN pathogenesis.

Artificial intelligence in glomerular diseases

In this narrative review, we focus on the application of artificial intelligence in the clinical history of patients with glomerular disease, digital pathology in kidney biopsy, renal ultrasonography imaging, and prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD). With the development of natural language processing, the clinical history of a patient can be used to identify a computable phenotype. In kidney pathology, digital imaging has adopted innovative deep learning algorithms (DLAs) that can improve the predictive capability of the examined lesions. However, at this time, these applications can only be used in research because there is no recognized validation to replace the conventional diagnostic applications. Kidney ultrasonography, used in the clinical examination of patients, provides information about the progression of kidney damage. Machine learning algorithms (MLAs) with promising results for the early detection of CKD have been proposed, but, still, they are not solid enough to be incorporated into the clinical practice. A few tools for glomerulonephritis, based on MLAs, are available in clinical practice. They can be downloaded on computers and cellular phones but can only be applied to uniracial cohorts of patients. To improve their performance, it is necessary to organize large consortia with multiracial cohorts. Finally, in many studies MLA development has been carried out using retrospective cohorts. The performance of the models might differ in retrospective cohorts compared to real-world data. Therefore, the models should be validated in prospective external large cohorts.

Prediction of chronic kidney disease and its progression by artificial intelligence algorithms

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Aim of nephrologists is to delay the outcome and reduce the number of patients undergoing renal failure (RF) by applying prevention protocols and accurately monitoring chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. General practitioners and nephrologists are involved in the first and in the late stages of the disease, respectively. Early diagnosis of CKD is an important step in preventing the progression of kidney damage. Our aim was to review publications on machine learning algorithms (MLAs) that can predict early CKD and its progression.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and selected 55 articles on the application of MLAs in CKD. PubMed, Medline, Scopus, Web of Science and IEEE Xplore Digital Library of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers were searched. The search terms were chronic kidney disease, artificial intelligence, data mining and machine learning algorithms.

RESULTS

MLAs use enormous numbers of predictors combining them in non-linear and highly interactive ways. This ability increases when new data is added. We observed some limitations in the publications: (i) databases were not accurately reviewed by physicians; (ii) databases did not report the ethnicity of the patients; (iii) some databases collected variables that were not important for the diagnosis and progression of CKD; (iv) no information was presented on the native kidney disease causing CKD; (v) no validation of the results in external independent cohorts was provided; and (vi) no insights were given on the MLAs that were used. Overall, there was limited collaboration among experts in electronics, computer science and physicians.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of MLAs in kidney diseases may enhance the ability of clinicians to predict CKD and RF, thus improving diagnostic assistance and providing suitable therapeutic decisions. However, it is necessary to improve the development process of MLA tools.

Automated Prediction of Kidney Failure in IgA Nephropathy with Deep Learning from Biopsy Images

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Digital pathology and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities for automatic histologic scoring. We applied a deep learning approach to IgA nephropathy biopsy images to develop an automatic histologic prognostic score, assessed against ground truth (kidney failure) among patients with IgA nephropathy who were treated over 39 years. We assessed noninferiority in comparison with the histologic component of currently validated predictive tools. We correlated additional histologic features with our deep learning predictive score to identify potential additional predictive features.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Training for deep learning was performed with randomly selected, digitalized, cortical Periodic acid-Schiff-stained sections images (363 kidney biopsy specimens) to develop our deep learning predictive score. We estimated noninferiority using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in a randomly selected group (95 biopsy specimens) against the gold standard Oxford classification (MEST-C) scores used by the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool and the clinical decision supporting system for estimating the risk of kidney failure in IgA nephropathy. We assessed additional potential predictive histologic features against a subset (20 kidney biopsy specimens) with the strongest and weakest deep learning predictive scores.

RESULTS

We enrolled 442 patients; the 10-year kidney survival was 78%, and the study median follow-up was 6.7 years. Manual MEST-C showed no prognostic relationship for the endocapillary parameter only. The deep learning predictive score was not inferior to MEST-C applied using the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool and the clinical decision supporting system (AUC of 0.84 versus 0.77 and 0.74, respectively) and confirmed a good correlation with the tubolointerstitial score (r=0.41, P<0.01). We observed no correlations between the deep learning prognostic score and the mesangial, endocapillary, segmental sclerosis, and crescent parameters. Additional potential predictive histopathologic features incorporated by the deep learning predictive score included (1) inflammation within areas of interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy and (2) hyaline casts.

CONCLUSIONS

The deep learning approach was noninferior to manual histopathologic reporting and considered prognostic features not currently included in MEST-C assessment.

PODCAST

This article contains a podcast at https://www.asn-online.org/media/podcast/CJASN/2022_07_26_CJN01760222.mp3.

Machine learning algorithms' accuracy in predicting kidney disease progression: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Kidney disease progression rates vary among patients. Rapid and accurate prediction of kidney disease outcomes is crucial for disease management. In recent years, various prediction models using Machine Learning (ML) algorithms have been established in nephrology. However, their accuracy have been inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of ML algorithms for kidney disease progression.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, the Chinese Biomedicine Literature Database, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Database, and the VIP Database for diagnostic studies on ML algorithms' accuracy in predicting kidney disease prognosis, from the establishment of these databases until October 2020. Two investigators independently evaluate study quality by QUADAS-2 tool and extracted data from single ML algorithm for data synthesis using the bivariate model and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) model.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies were left after screening, only 6 studies were eligible for data synthesis. The sample size of these 6 studies was 12,534, and the kidney disease types could be divided into chronic kidney disease (CKD) and Immunoglobulin A Nephropathy, with 5 articles using end-stage renal diseases occurrence as the primary outcome. The main results indicated that the area under curve (AUC) of the HSROC was 0.87 (0.84-0.90) and ML algorithm exhibited a strong specificity, 95% confidence interval and heterogeneity (I2) of (0.87, 0.84-0.90, [I2 99.0%]) and a weak sensitivity of (0.68, 0.58-0.77, [I2 99.7%]) in predicting kidney disease deterioration. And the the results of subgroup analysis indicated that ML algorithm's AUC for predicting CKD prognosis was 0.82 (0.79-0.85), with the pool sensitivity of (0.64, 0.49-0.77, [I2 99.20%]) and pool specificity of (0.84, 0.74-0.91, [I2 99.84%]). The ML algorithm's AUC for predicting IgA nephropathy prognosis was 0.78 (0.74-0.81), with the pool sensitivity of (0.74, 0.71-0.77, [I2 7.10%]) and pool specificity of (0.93, 0.91-0.95, [I2 83.92%]).

CONCLUSION

Taking advantage of big data, ML algorithm-based prediction models have high accuracy in predicting kidney disease progression, we recommend ML algorithms as an auxiliary tool for clinicians to determine proper treatment and disease management strategies.

Validation of two IgA nephropathy risk-prediction tools using a cohort with a long follow-up

BACKGROUND

Recently, two immunoglobulin A nephropathy prediction tools were developed that combine clinical and histopathological parameters. The International IgAN Prediction Tool predicts the risk for 50% declines in the estimated glomerular filtration rate or end-stage renal disease up to 80 months after diagnosis. The IgA Nephropathy Clinical Decision Support System uses artificial neural networks to estimate the risk for end-stage renal disease. We aimed to externally validate both prediction tools using a Norwegian cohort with a long-term follow-up.

METHODS

We included 306 patients with biopsy-proven primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy in this study. Histopathologic samples were retrieved from the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry and reclassified according to the Oxford classification. We used discrimination and calibration as principles for externally validating the prognostic models.

RESULTS

The median patient follow-up was 17.1 years. A cumulative dynamic time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis showed area under the curve values of ranging from 0.90 at 5 years to 0.83 at 20 years for the International IgAN Prediction Tool, while time-naive analysis showed an area under the curve value at 0.83 for the IgA Nephropathy Clinical Decision Support System. The International IgAN Prediction Tool was well calibrated, while the IgA Nephropathy Clinical Decision Support System tends to underestimate risk for patients with higher risk, and overestimates risk in the lower risk categories.

CONCLUSIONS

We have externally validated two prediction tools for IgA nephropathy. The International IgAN Prediction Tool performed well, while the IgA Nephropathy Clinical Decision Support System has some limitations.

Histopathological prognostic factors in ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis

Anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) are a group of multisystemic autoimmune diseases characterized by necrotizing inflammation of small vessels. Kidney involvement is frequent in granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA) and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA), and accounts for a significant proportion of the morbidity and mortality related to these diseases. Despite improvement in therapeutic management of ANCA-glomerulonephritis (ANCA-GN), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) still occurs in up to 30% of affected patients within 5 years following diagnosis. Thus, identifying patients for whom aggressive immunosuppressive therapy will be more beneficial than deleterious is of great importance. Several clinical, biological and histological factors have been proposed as predictors of ESKD. The kidney biopsy is essential not only for the diagnosis, but also for evaluating renal prognosis. In this review, we discuss the prognostic value of renal lesions at the diagnosis of ANCA-GN by analyzing each compartment of the nephron. We also review existing ESKD risk classification in ANCA-GN and finally propose an example of a standardized pathology report that could be used in routine practice.

Machine Learning for Renal Pathologies: An Updated Survey

Within the literature concerning modern machine learning techniques applied to the medical field, there is a growing interest in the application of these technologies to the nephrological area, especially regarding the study of renal pathologies, because they are very common and widespread in our society, afflicting a high percentage of the population and leading to various complications, up to death in some cases. For these reasons, the authors have considered it appropriate to collect, using one of the major bibliographic databases available, and analyze the studies carried out until February 2022 on the use of machine learning techniques in the nephrological field, grouping them according to the addressed pathologies: renal masses, acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, kidney stone, glomerular disease, kidney transplant, and others less widespread. Of a total of 224 studies, 59 were analyzed according to inclusion and exclusion criteria in this review, considering the method used and the type of data available. Based on the study conducted, it is possible to see a growing trend and interest in the use of machine learning applications in nephrology, becoming an additional tool for physicians, which can enable them to make more accurate and faster diagnoses, although there remains a major limitation given the difficulty in creating public databases that can be used by the scientific community to corroborate and eventually make a positive contribution in this area.

Application of the International IgA Nephropathy Prediction Tool one or two years post-biopsy

The International IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) Prediction Tool is the preferred method in the 2021 KDIGO guidelines to predict, at the time of kidney biopsy, the risk of a 50% drop in estimated glomerular filtration rate or kidney failure. However, it is not known if the Prediction Tool can be accurately applied after a period of observation post-biopsy. Using an international multi-ethnic derivation cohort of 2,507 adults with IgAN, we updated the Prediction Tool for use one year after biopsy, and externally validated this in a cohort of 722 adults. The original Prediction Tool applied at one-year without modification had a coefficient of variation (R2) of 55% and 54% and four-year concordance (C statistic) of 0.82 but poor calibration with under-prediction of risk (integrated calibration index (ICI) 1.54 and 2.11, with and without race, respectively). Our updated Prediction Tool had a better model fit with higher R2 (61% and 60%), significant increase in four-year C-statistic (0.87 and 0.86) and better four-year calibration with lower ICI (0.75 and 0.35). On external validation, the updated Prediction Tool had similar R2 (60% and 58%) and four-year C-statistics (both 0.85) compared to the derivation analysis, with excellent four-year calibration (ICI 0.62 and 0.56). This updated Prediction Tool had similar prediction performance when used two years after biopsy. Thus, the original Prediction Tool should be used only at the time of biopsy whereas our updated Prediction Tool can be used for risk stratification one or two years post-biopsy.

Prediction and Risk Stratification of Cardiovascular Disease in Diabetic Kidney Disease Patients

Background

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients are facing an extremely high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is a major cause of death for DKD patients. We aimed to build a deep learning model to predict CVD risk among DKD patients and perform risk stratifying, which could help them perform early intervention and improve personal health management.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to assess the risk of the occurrence of composite cardiovascular disease, which includes coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, congestive heart failure, and peripheral artery disease, in DKD patients. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to perform the variable selection. A deep learning-based survival model called DeepSurv, based on a feed-forward neural network was developed to predict CVD risk among DKD patients. We compared the model performance with the conventional Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model and the Random survival forest (RSF) model using the concordance index (C-index), the area under the curve (AUC), and integrated Brier scores (IBS).

Results

We recruited 890 patients diagnosed with DKD in this retrospective study. During a median follow-up of 10.4 months, there are 289 patients who sustained a subsequent CVD. Seven variables, including age, high density lipoprotein (HDL), hemoglobin (Hb), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking status, 24 h urinary protein excretion, and total cholesterol (TC), chosen by LASSO regression were used to develop the predictive model. The DeepSurv model showed the best performance, achieved a C-index of 0.767(95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.717–0.817), AUC of 0.780(95%CI: 0.721–0.839), and IBS of 0.067 in the validation set. Then we used the cut-off value determined by ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve to divide the patients into different risk groups. Moreover, the DeepSurv model was also applied to develop an online calculation tool for patients to conduct risk monitoring.

Conclusion

A deep-learning-based predictive model using seven clinical variables can effectively predict CVD risk among DKD patients and perform risk stratification. An online calculator allows its easy implementation.

Crescents and IgA Nephropathy: A Delicate Marriage

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a progressive disease with great variability in the clinical course. Among the clinical and pathologic features contributing to variable outcomes, the presence of crescents has attracted particular interest as a distinct pathological feature associated with severity. Several uncontrolled observations have led to the general thought that the presence and extent of crescents was a prognostic indicator associated with poor outcomes. However, KDIGO 2021 guidelines concluded that either the presence or the relative number of crescents should not be used to determine the progression of IgAN nor should they suggest the choice of immunosuppression. Our aim is to report and discuss recent data on the debated issue of the value of active (cellular and fibrocellular) crescents in the pathogenesis and clinical progression of IgAN, their predictive value, and the impact of immunosuppression on renal function. We conclude that the value of crescents should not be disregarded, although this feature does not have an independent predictive value for progression in IgAN, particularly when considering immunosuppressed patients. An integrated overall evaluation of crescents with other active MEST scores, clinical data, and novel biomarkers must be considered in achieving a personalized therapeutic approach to IgAN patients.

The potential of artificial intelligence-based applications in kidney pathology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The field of pathology is currently undergoing a significant transformation from traditional glass slides to a digital format dependent on whole slide imaging. Transitioning from glass to digital has opened the field to development and application of image analysis technology, commonly deep learning methods (artificial intelligence [AI]) to assist pathologists with tissue examination. Nephropathology is poised to leverage this technology to improve precision, accuracy, and efficiency in clinical practice.

RECENT FINDINGS

Through a multidisciplinary approach, nephropathologists, and computer scientists have made significant recent advances in developing AI technology to identify histological structures within whole slide images (segmentation), quantification of histologic structures, prediction of clinical outcomes, and classifying disease. Virtual staining of tissue and automation of electron microscopy imaging are emerging applications with particular significance for nephropathology.

SUMMARY

AI applied to image analysis in nephropathology has potential to transform the field by improving diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility, efficiency, and prognostic power. Reimbursement, demonstration of clinical utility, and seamless workflow integration are essential to widespread adoption.

Prediction of prognosis in immunoglobulin a nephropathy patients with focal crescent by machine learning

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Immunoglobulin a nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerular disease in the world, with different clinical manifestations, varying severity of pathological changes, common complications of crescent formation in different proportions, and great individual heterogeneous in clinical outcomes. Therefore, we aim to develop a machine learning (ML) based predictive model for predicting the prognosis of IgAN with focal crescent formation and without obvious chronic renal lesions (glomerulosclerosis <25%).

MATERIALS

We retrospectively reviewed biopsy-proven IgAN patients in our hospital and cooperative hospital from 2005 to 2017. The method of feature importance of random forest (RF) was applied to conduct feature exploration of feature variables to establish the characteristic variables that are closely related to the prognosis of focal crescent IgAN. Multiple ML algorithms were attempted to establish the prediction models. The area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were applied to evaluate the predictive performance via three-fold cross validation (namely 2 training sets and 1 validation set).

RESULTS

RF was used to screen the important features, the top three of which were baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), serum creatine and triglyceride. Ten important features were selected as important predictors for modeling on the basis of data-driven and medical selection, predictors include: age, baseline eGFR, serum creatine, serum triglycerides, complement 3(C3), proteinuria, mean arterial pressure (MAP) and Hematuria, crescents proportion of glomeruli, Global crescent proportion of glomeruli. In a variety of ML algorithms, the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm displayed better predictive performance, with Precision of 0.77, Recall of 0.77, F1-score of 0.73, accuracy of 0.77, AUROC of 79.57%, and AUPRC of 76.5%.

CONCLUSIONS

The SVM model is potentially useful for predicting the prognosis of IgAN patients with focal crescent shape and without obvious chronic renal lesions.

Clinical Applications of Artificial Intelligence-An Updated Overview

Artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize modern society in all its aspects. Encouraged by the variety and vast amount of data that can be gathered from patients (e.g., medical images, text, and electronic health records), researchers have recently increased their interest in developing AI solutions for clinical care. Moreover, a diverse repertoire of methods can be chosen towards creating performant models for use in medical applications, ranging from disease prediction, diagnosis, and prognosis to opting for the most appropriate treatment for an individual patient. In this respect, the present paper aims to review the advancements reported at the convergence of AI and clinical care. Thus, this work presents AI clinical applications in a comprehensive manner, discussing the recent literature studies classified according to medical specialties. In addition, the challenges and limitations hindering AI integration in the clinical setting are further pointed out.

Utilizing the MEST score for prognostic staging in IgA nephropathy

Background

The Oxford classification/MEST score is an established histopathologic scoring system for patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). The objective of this study was to derive a prognostic model for IgAN based on the MEST score and histopathologic features.

Methods

A total of 306 patients with biopsy-proven primary IgAN were included. Histopathologic samples were retrieved from the Norwegian Kidney Biopsy Registry and reclassified according to the Oxford classification. The study endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Patients were subclassified into three risk models based on histologic features (Model A), a composite score calculated from the adjusted hazard ratio values (Model B), and on quartiles (Model C).

Results

The mean follow-up time was 16.5 years (range 0.2–28.1). In total, 61 (20%) patients reached ESRD during the study period. Univariate analysis of M, E, S, T and C lesions demonstrated that all types were associated with an increased risk of ESRD; however, a multivariate analysis revealed that only S, T and C lesions were associated with poor outcomes. Statistical analysis of 15-year data demonstrated that Models A and B were as predictive as the MEST score, with an area-under-the-curve at 0.85. The Harrel c index values were 0.81 and 0.80 for the MEST score and Models A and B, respectively. In the present cohort, adding C lesions to the MEST score did not improve the models prognostic value.

Conclusions

Patients can be divided into risk classes based on their MEST scores. Histopathologic data provide valuable prognostic information at the time of diagnosis. Model B was the most suitable for clinical practice because it was the most user-friendly.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12882-021-02653-y.

Precision medicine for the treatment of glomerulonephritis: A bold goal but not yet a transformative achievement

The revolution in our ability to recognize the alterations in fundamental biology brought about by disease has fostered a renewed interest in precision or personalized medicine (“the right treatment, or diagnostic test, for the right patient at the right time”). This nascent field has been led by oncology, immune-hematology and infectious disease, but nephrology is catching up, and quickly. Specific forms of glomerulonephritis thought to represent specific “diseases” have been “downgraded” to “patterns of injury”. New entities have emerged through application of sophisticated molecular technologies; often embraced by the term “multi-omics”. Kidney biopsies are now interpreted by next generation imaging and machine learning. Many opportunities are manifest that will translate these remarkable developments into novel safe and effective treatment regimens for specific pathogenic pathways evoking glomerulonephritis and its progression to kidney failure. A few successes emboldens a positive look to the future. A sustained and highly collaborative engagement with this new paradigm will be required for this field, full of hope and high expectations, to realize its goal of transforming glomerular therapeutics from “one size fits all (or many)” to a true individualized management principle.