Application of variational mode decomposition and chaotic grey wolf optimizer with support vector regression for forecasting electric loads

Long Short-Term Memory-Based Twin Support Vector Regression for Probabilistic Load Forecasting

A probabilistic load forecast that is accurate and reliable is crucial to not only the efficient operation of power systems but also to the efficient use of energy resources. In order to estimate the uncertainties in forecasting models and nonstationary electric load data, this study proposes a probabilistic load forecasting model, namely BFEEMD-LSTM-TWSVRSOA. This model consists of a data filtering method named fast ensemble empirical model decomposition (FEEMD) method, a twin support vector regression (TWSVR) whose features are extracted by deep learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, and parameters optimized by seeker optimization algorithms (SOAs). We compared the probabilistic forecasting performance of the BFEEMD-LSTM-TWSVRSOA and its point forecasting version with different machine learning and deep learning algorithms on Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014). The most representative month data of each season, totally four monthly data, collected from the one-year data in GEFCom2014, forming four datasets. Several bootstrap methods are compared in order to determine the best prediction intervals (PIs) for the proposed model. Various forecasting step sizes are also taken into consideration in order to obtain the best satisfactory point forecasting results. Experimental results on these four datasets indicate that the wild bootstrap method and 24-h step size are the best bootstrap method and forecasting step size for the proposed model. The proposed model achieves averaged 46%, 11%, 36%, and 44% better than suboptimal model on these four datasets with respect to point forecasting, and achieves averaged 53%, 48%, 46%, and 51% better than suboptimal model on these four datasets with respect to probabilistic forecasting.

Heart disease prediction using ECG-based lightweight system in IoT based on meta-heuristic approach

Annually, the proportion of individuals suffering from cardiovascular disease rises significantly. Heart attacks are the most prevalent and unpleasant illness among them. Heart disease (HD) diagnosis can be complicated when there are multiple symptoms. The growing popularity of wearable smart devices has increased the likelihood of providing the Internet of Things (IoT). However, one of the biggest obstacles to overcome in implementing the system under IoT is developing a lightweight model for cardiac diagnosis and categorization. In this paper, we have presented a two-step heart disease classification method. This method includes demarcation of classes with the help of optimized non-linear support vector machine technique in the first step and determining the modified fuzzy class in the second step. Initially, pre-processing is accomplished using the ECG signals to eliminate noise and improve signal smoothness. Subsequently, features such as PQRS wave, linear characteristics, and reciprocal information are extracted from pre-processed signals. At the classification stage, the two-stage learning system is used to classify cardiac arrhythmias. First, using the wild horse optimization (WHO) technique (WHO-sigmoid-TH-NL-demarcation), each class is subjected to a binary classification based on feature demarcation, thresholding, and weighting of the sigmoid function. The information from the first stage will be transferred into the subsequent stage for an equal number of heart disease classifications. In the second step, a TS fuzzy logic system optimized by the Giza Pyramids Construction (GPC) approach (GPC-TS-Fuzzy) is utilized to classify each signal. The MIT-BIH arrhythmia dataset is used to assess the suggested approach. In a comprehensive evaluation of the suggested method, performance metrics including "accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity" yielded average values of 98.58 %, 98.13 %, and 96.47 %, respectively. The MATLAB platform is utilized to accomplish the proposed methodology.

SJFO: Sail Jelly Fish Optimization enabled VM migration with DRNN-based prediction for load balancing in cloud computing

The dynamic workload is evenly distributed among all nodes using balancing methods like hosts or VMs. Load Balancing as a Service (LBaaS) is another name for load balancing in the cloud. In this research work, the load is balanced by the application of Virtual Machine (VM) migration carried out by proposed Sail Jelly Fish Optimization (SJFO). The SJFO is formed by combining Sail Fish Optimizer (SFO) and Jellyfish Search (JS) optimizer. In the Cloud model, many Physical Machines (PMs) are present, where these PMs are comprised of many VMs. Each VM has many tasks, and these tasks depend on various parameters like Central Processing Unit (CPU), memory, Million Instructions per Second (MIPS), capacity, total number of processing entities, as well as bandwidth. Here, the load is predicted by Deep Recurrent Neural Network (DRNN) and this predicted load is compared with a threshold value, where VM migration is done based on predicted values. Furthermore, the performance of SJFO-VM is analysed using the metrics like capacity, load, and resource utilization. The proposed method shows better performance with a superior capacity of 0.598, an inferior load of 0.089, and an inferior resource utilization of 0.257.

Support vector machine-based stock market prediction using long short-term memory and convolutional neural network with aquila circle inspired optimization

Predicting the stock market is one of the significant chores and has a successful prediction of stock rates, and it helps in making correct decisions. The prediction of the stock market is the main challenge due to blaring, chaotic data as well as non-stationary data. In this research, the support vector machine (SVM) is devised for performing an effective stock market prediction. At first, the input time series data is considered and the pre-processing of data is done by employing a standard scalar. Then, the time intrinsic features are extracted and the suitable features are selected in the feature selection stage by eliminating other features using recursive feature elimination. Afterwards, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based prediction is done, wherein LSTM is trained to employ Aquila circle-inspired optimization (ACIO) that is newly introduced by merging Aquila optimizer (AO) with circle-inspired optimization algorithm (CIOA). On the other hand, delay-based matrix formation is conducted by considering input time series data. After that, convolutional neural network (CNN)-based prediction is performed, where CNN is tuned by the same ACIO. Finally, stock market prediction is executed utilizing SVM by fusing the predicted outputs attained from LSTM-based prediction and CNN-based prediction. Furthermore, the SVM attains better outcomes of minimum mean absolute percentage error; (MAPE) and normalized root-mean-square error (RMSE) with values about 0.378 and 0.294.

Optimizing inset-fed rectangular micro strip patch antenna by improved particle swarm optimization and simulated annealing

The recent wireless communication systems require high gain, lightweight, low profile, and simple antenna structures to ensure high efficiency and reliability. The existing microstrip patch antenna (MPA) design approaches attain low gain and high return loss. To solve this issue, the geometric dimensions of the antenna should be optimized. The improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm which is the combination of PSO and simulated annealing (SA) approach (PSO-SA) is employed in this paper to optimize the width and length of the inset-fed rectangular microstrip patch antennas for Ku-band and C-band applications. The inputs to the proposed algorithm such as substrate height, dielectric constant, and resonant frequency and outputs are optimized for width and height. The return loss and gain of the antenna are considered for the fitness function. To calculate the fitness value, the Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) is employed in the PSO-SA approach. The design and optimization of the proposed MPA are implemented in MATLAB software. The performance of the optimally designed antenna with the proposed approach is evaluated in terms of the radiation pattern, return loss, Voltage Standing Wave Ratio (VSWR), gain, computation time, directivity, and convergence speed.

Face Image Segmentation Using Boosted Grey Wolf Optimizer

Image segmentation methods have received widespread attention in face image recognition, which can divide each pixel in the image into different regions and effectively distinguish the face region from the background for further recognition. Threshold segmentation, a common image segmentation method, suffers from the problem that the computational complexity shows exponential growth with the increase in the segmentation threshold level. Therefore, in order to improve the segmentation quality and obtain the segmentation thresholds more efficiently, a multi-threshold image segmentation framework based on a meta-heuristic optimization technique combined with Kapur's entropy is proposed in this study. A meta-heuristic optimization method based on an improved grey wolf optimizer variant is proposed to optimize the 2D Kapur's entropy of the greyscale and nonlocal mean 2D histograms generated by image computation. In order to verify the advancement of the method, experiments compared with the state-of-the-art method on IEEE CEC2020 and face image segmentation public dataset were conducted in this paper. The proposed method has achieved better results than other methods in various tests at 18 thresholds with an average feature similarity of 0.8792, an average structural similarity of 0.8532, and an average peak signal-to-noise ratio of 24.9 dB. It can be used as an effective tool for face segmentation.

Short-term load forecasting system based on sliding fuzzy granulation and equilibrium optimizer

Short-term electricity load forecasting is critical and challenging for scheduling operations and production planning in modern power management systems due to stochastic characteristics of electricity load data. Current forecasting models mainly focus on adapting to various load data to improve the accuracy of the forecasting. However, these models ignore the noise and nonstationarity of the load data, resulting in forecasting uncertainty. To address this issue, a short-term load forecasting system is proposed by combining a modified information processing technique, an advanced meta-heuristics algorithm and deep neural networks. The information processing technique utilizes a sliding fuzzy granulation method to remove noise and obtain uncertainty information from load data. Deep neural networks can capture the nonlinear characteristics of load data to obtain forecasting performance gains due to the powerful mapping capability. A novel meta-heuristics algorithm is used to optimize the weighting coefficients to reduce the contingency and improve the stability of the forecasting. Both point forecasting and interval forecasting are utilized for comprehensive forecasting evaluation of future electricity load. Several experiments demonstrate the superiority, effectiveness and stability of the proposed system by comprehensively considering multiple evaluation metrics.

Fully convolutional network for automated detection and diagnosis of mammographic masses

Breast cancer, though rare in male, is very frequent in female and has high mortality rate which can be reduced if detected and diagnosed at the early stage. Thus, in this paper, deep learning architecture based on U-Net is proposed for the detection of breast masses and its characterization as benign or malignant. The evaluation of the proposed architecture in detection is carried out on two benchmark datasets- INbreast and DDSM and achieved a true positive rate of 99.64% at 0.25 false positives per image for INbreast dataset while the same for DDSM are 97.36% and 0.38 FPs/I, respectively. For mass characterization, an accuracy of 97.39% with an AUC of 0.97 is obtained for INbreast while the same for DDSM are 96.81%, and 0.96, respectively. The measured results are further compared with the state-of-the-art techniques where the introduced scheme takes an edge over others.

Study on an Assembly Prediction Method of RV Reducer Based on IGWO Algorithm and SVR Model

This paper proposes a new method for predicting rotation error based on improved grey wolf-optimized support vector regression (IGWO-SVR), because the existing rotation error research methods cannot meet the production beat and product quality requirements of enterprises, because of the disadvantages of its being time-consuming and having poor calculation accuracy. First, the grey wolf algorithm is improved based on the optimal Latin hypercube sampling initialization, nonlinear convergence factor, and dynamic weights to improve its accuracy in optimizing the parameters of the support vector regression (SVR) model. Then, the IGWO-SVR prediction model between the manufacturing error of critical parts and the rotation error is established with the RV-40E reducer as a case. The results show that the improved grey wolf algorithm shows better parameter optimization performance, and the IGWO-SVR method shows better prediction performance than the existing back propagation (BP) neural network and BP neural network optimized by the sparrow search algorithm rotation error prediction methods, as well as the SVR models optimized by particle swarm algorithm and grey wolf algorithm. The mean squared error of IGWO-SVR model is 0.026, the running time is 7.843 s, and the maximum relative error is 13.5%, which can meet the requirements of production beat and product quality. Therefore, the IGWO-SVR method can be well applied to the rotate vector (RV) reducer parts-matching model to improve product quality and reduce rework rate and cost.

A Novel Combined Model for Predicting Humidity in Sheep Housing Facilities

Accurately predicting humidity changes in sheep barns is important to ensure the healthy growth of the animals and to improve the economic returns of sheep farming. In this study, to address the limitations of conventional methods in establishing accurate mathematical models of dynamic changes in humidity in sheep barns, we propose a method to predict humidity in sheep barns based on a machine learning model combining a light gradient boosting machine with gray wolf optimization and support-vector regression (LightGBM-CGWO-SVR). Influencing factors with a high contribution to humidity were extracted using LightGBM to reduce the complexity of the model. To avoid the local extremum problem, the CGWO algorithm was used to optimize the required hyperparameters in SVR and determine the optimal hyperparameter combination. The combined algorithm was applied to predict the humidity of an intensive sheep-breeding facility in Manas, Xinjiang, China, in real time for the next 10 min. The experimental results indicated that the proposed LightGBM-CGWO-SVR model outperformed eight existing models used for comparison on all evaluation metrics. It achieved minimum values of 0.0662, 0.2284, 0.0521, and 0.0083 in terms of mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean squared error, and normalized root mean square error, respectively, and a maximum value of 0.9973 in terms of the R² index.

Cryptography-Based Medical Signal Securing Using Improved Variation Mode Decomposition with Machine Learning Techniques

There is no question about the value that digital signal processing brings to the area of biomedical research. DSP processors are used to sample and process the analog inputs that are received from a human organ. These inputs come from the organ itself. DSP processors, because of their multidimensional data processing nature, are the electrical components that take up the greatest space and use the most power. In this age of digital technology and electronic gizmos, portable biomedical devices represent an essential step forward in technological advancement. Electrocardiogram (ECG) units are among the most common types of biomedical equipment, and their functions are absolutely necessary to the process of saving human life. In the latter part of the 1990s, portable electrocardiogram (ECG) devices began to appear on the market, and research into their signal processing and electronics design capabilities continues today. System-on-chip (SoC) design refers to the process through which the separate computing components of a DSP unit are combined onto a single chip in order to achieve greater power and space efficiency. In the design of biomedical DSP devices, this body of research presents a number of different solutions for reducing power consumption and space requirements. Using serial or parallel data buses, which are often the region that consumes the most power, it is possible to send data between the system-on-chip (SoC) and other components. To cut down on the number of needless switching operations that take place during data transmission, a hybrid solution that makes use of the shift invert bus encoding scheme has been developed. Using a phase-encoded shift invert bus encoding approach, which embeds the two-bit indication lines into a single-bit encoded line, is one way to solve the issue of having two distinct indicator bits. This method reduces the problem. The PESHINV approach is compared to the SHINV method that already exists, and the comparison reveals that the suggested PESHINV method reduces the total power consumption of the encoding circuit by around 30 percent. The computing unit of the DSP processor is the target of further optimization efforts. Virtually, all signal processing methods need memory and multiplier circuits to function properly.

An adaptive multilevel thresholding method with chaotically-enhanced Rao algorithm

Multilevel image thresholding is a well-known technique for image segmentation. Recently, various metaheuristic methods have been proposed for the determination of the thresholds for multilevel image segmentation. These methods are mainly based on metaphors and they have high complexity and their convergences are comparably slow. In this paper, a multilevel image thresholding approach is proposed that simplifies the thresholding problem by using a simple optimization technique instead of metaphor-based algorithms. More specifically, in this paper, Chaotic enhanced Rao (CER) algorithms are developed where eight chaotic maps namely Logistic, Sine, Sinusoidal, Gauss, Circle, Chebyshev, Singer, and Tent are used. Besides, in the developed CER algorithm, the number of thresholds is determined automatically, instead of manual determination. The performances of the developed CER algorithms are evaluated based on different statistical analysis metrics namely BDE, PRI, VOI, GCE, SSIM, FSIM, RMSE, PSNR, NK, AD, SC, MD, and NAE. The experimental works and the related evaluations are carried out on the BSDS300 dataset. The obtained experimental results demonstrate that the proposed CER algorithm outperforms the compared methods based on PRI, SSIM, FSIM, PSNR, RMSE, AD, and NAE metrics. In addition, the proposed method provides better convergence regarding speed and accuracy.

Data sampling approach using heuristic Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) classifier for software defect prediction

On the basis of quality estimate, early prediction and identification of software flaws is crucial in the software area. Prediction of Software Defects SDP is defined as the process of exposing software to flaws through the use of prediction models and defect datasets. This study recommended a method for dealing with the class imbalance problem based on Improved Random Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE), followed by Linear Pearson Correlation Technique to perform feature selection to predict software failure. On the basis of the SMOTE data sampling approach, a strategy for software defect prediction is given in this paper. To address the class imbalance, the defect datasets were initially processed using the Improved Random-SMOTE Oversampling technique. Then, using the Linear Pearson Correlation approach, the features were chosen, and using the k-fold cross validation process, the samples were split into training and testing datasets. Finally, Heuristic Learning Vector Quantization is used to classify data in order to predict software problems. Based on measures like sensitivity, specificity, FPR, and accuracy rate for two separate datasets, the performance of the proposed strategy is contrasted with the approaches to classification that presently exist.

Multi-Step Ahead Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using VMD-TCN and Error Correction Strategy

The electricity load forecasting plays a pivotal role in the operation of power utility companies precise forecasting and is crucial to mitigate the challenges of supply and demand in the smart grid. More recently, the hybrid models combining signal decomposition and artificial neural networks have received popularity due to their applicability to reduce the difficulty of prediction. However, the commonly used decomposition algorithms and recurrent neural network-based models still confront some dilemmas such as boundary effects, time consumption, etc. Therefore, a hybrid prediction model combining variational mode decomposition (VMD), a temporal convolutional network (TCN), and an error correction strategy is proposed. To address the difficulty in determining the decomposition number and penalty factor for VMD decomposition, the idea of weighted permutation entropy is introduced. The decomposition hyperparameters are optimized by using a comprehensive indicator that takes account of the complexity and amplitude of the subsequences. Besides, a temporal convolutional network is adopted to carry out feature extraction and load prediction for each subsequence, with the primary forecasting results obtained by combining the prediction of each TCN model. In order to further improve the accuracy of prediction for the model, an error correction strategy is applied according to the prediction error of the train set. The Global Energy Competition 2014 dataset is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed hybrid model. The experimental results show that the prediction performance of the proposed hybrid model outperforms the contrast models. The accuracy achieves 0.274%, 0.326%, and 0.405 for 6-steps, 12-steps, and 24 steps ahead forecasting, respectively, in terms of the mean absolute percentage error.

Binary Aquila Optimizer for Selecting Effective Features from Medical Data: A COVID-19 Case Study

Medical technological advancements have led to the creation of various large datasets with numerous attributes. The presence of redundant and irrelevant features in datasets negatively influences algorithms and leads to decreases in the performance of the algorithms. Using effective features in data mining and analyzing tasks such as classification can increase the accuracy of the results and relevant decisions made by decision-makers using them. This increase can become more acute when dealing with challenging, large-scale problems in medical applications. Nature-inspired metaheuristics show superior performance in finding optimal feature subsets in the literature. As a seminal attempt, a wrapper feature selection approach is presented on the basis of the newly proposed Aquila optimizer (AO) in this work. In this regard, the wrapper approach uses AO as a search algorithm in order to discover the most effective feature subset. S-shaped binary Aquila optimizer (SBAO) and V-shaped binary Aquila optimizer (VBAO) are two binary algorithms suggested for feature selection in medical datasets. Binary position vectors are generated utilizing S- and V-shaped transfer functions while the search space stays continuous. The suggested algorithms are compared to six recent binary optimization algorithms on seven benchmark medical datasets. In comparison to the comparative algorithms, the gained results demonstrate that using both proposed BAO variants can improve the classification accuracy on these medical datasets. The proposed algorithm is also tested on the real-dataset COVID-19. The findings testified that SBAO outperforms comparative algorithms regarding the least number of selected features with the highest accuracy.

Soybean price forecasting based on Lasso and regularized asymmetric ν-TSVR

Asymmetric ν-twin Support vector regression (Asy-ν-TSVR) is an effective regression model in price prediction. However, there is a matrix inverse operation when solving its dual problem. It is well known that it may be not reversible, therefore a regularized asymmetric ν-TSVR (RAsy-ν-TSVR) is proposed in this paper to avoid above problem. Numerical experiments on eight Benchmark datasets are conducted to demonstrate the validity of our proposed RAsy-ν-TSVR. Moreover, a statistical test is to further show the effectiveness. Before we apply it to Chinese soybean price forecasting, we firstly employ the Lasso to analyze the influence factors of soybean price, and select 21 important factors from the original 25 factors. And then RAsy-ν-TSVR is used to forecast the Chinese soybean price. It yields the lowest prediction error compared with other four models in both the training and testing phases. Meanwhile it produces lower prediction error after the feature selection than before. So the combined Lasso and RAsy-ν-TSVR model is effective for the Chinese soybean price.

Modeling and forecasting the total number of cases and deaths due to pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has appeared as the predominant disease of the 21st century at the end of 2019 and was a drastic start with thousands of casualties and the COVID-19 victims in 2020. Due to the drastic effect, COVID-19 scientists are trying to work on pandemic diseases and Governments are interested in the development of methodologies that will minimize the losses and speed up the process of cure by providing vaccines and treatment for such pandemics. The development of a new vaccine for any pandemic requires long in vitro and in vivo trials to use. Thus the strategies require understanding how the pandemic is spreading in terms of affected cases and casualties occurring from this disease, here we developed a forecasting model that can predict the no of cases and deaths due to pandemic and that can help the researcher, government, and other stakeholders to devise their strategies so that the damages can be minimized. This model can also be used for the judicial distribution of resources as it provides the estimates of the number of casualties and number of deaths with high accuracy, Government and policymakers on the basis of forecasted value can plan in a better way. The model efficiency is discussed on the basis of the available dataset of John Hopkins University repository in the period when the disease was first reported in the six countries till the mid of May 2020, the model was developed on the basis of this data, and then it is tested by forecasting the no of deaths and cases for next 7 days, where the proposed strategy provided excellent forecasting. The forecast models are developed for six countries including Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Iran, Italy, and China using polynomial regression of degrees 3-5. But the models are analyzed up to the 6th-degree and the suitable models are selected based on higher adjusted R-square (R2 ) and lower root-mean-square error and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The values of R2 are greater than 99% for all countries other than China whereas for China this R2 was 97%. The high values of R2 and Low value of MAPE statistics increase the validity of proposed models to forecast the total no cases and total no of deaths in all countries. Iran, Italy, and Afghanistan also show a mild decreasing trend but the number of cases is far higher than the decrease percentage. Although India is expected to have a consistent result, more or less it depicts some other biasing factors which should be figured out in separate research.

One class SVM model based on neural tangent kernel for anomaly detection task on small-scale data

Recent studies have shown that the evolution of infinitely wide neural networks satisfying certain conditions can be described by a kernel function called neural tangent kernel (NTK). We introduce NTK into a one-class support vector machine model and select data from different domains in UCI for a small-sample outlier detection task, demonstrate that NTK-OCSVM generally outperforms a variety of commonly used classification models, with more than 20% improvement in accuracy for similar models. When the kernel function parameters are varied, the experiments show that the model has strong robustness within a certain parameter range. Finally, we experimentally compare the time complexity of different models and the decision boundaries, and demonstrate that NTK-OCSVM improves accuracy at the expense of operational efficiency and has linear decision boundaries.

The Impact of Agriculture on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Visegrad Group Countries after the World Economic Crisis of 2008. Comparative Study of the Researched Countries

The aim of this study is to identify the correlation between the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, added value from agriculture and economic growth in the Visegrad Group countries. Four countries of Central Europe were studied the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia in 2008–2019. Due to the objectives of the article, it was decided to use the panel model. The temporal scope of the research covers the years 2008–2019, i.e., two economic periods: 2008–2014 (a downward trend, including agriculture), and 2015–2019 (an upward trend). Greenhouse gas emissions are positively correlated with value added from agriculture and economic growth. The increase in the level of these variables stimulates of the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the countries of the Visegrad Group. The analysis of the eco-efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture, in relation to the gross added value produced, shows that the country with the least pollution of this value was Hungary, followed by Slovakia. The Czech Republic was third, and Poland was the last. The results of the research can be treated as a premise for a strategy for the development of agriculture, limiting the negative effects of its industrial development for more sustainable development.

Interpretable Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Scheme Using Cubist

Daily peak load forecasting (DPLF) and total daily load forecasting (TDLF) are essential for optimal power system operation from one day to one week later. This study develops a Cubist-based incremental learning model to perform accurate and interpretable DPLF and TDLF. To this end, we employ time-series cross-validation to effectively reflect recent electrical load trends and patterns when constructing the model. We also analyze variable importance to identify the most crucial factors in the Cubist model. In the experiments, we used two publicly available building datasets and three educational building cluster datasets. The results showed that the proposed model yielded averages of 7.77 and 10.06 in mean absolute percentage error and coefficient of variation of the root mean square error, respectively. We also confirmed that temperature and holiday information are significant external factors, and electrical loads one day and one week ago are significant internal factors.

Application of AMOGWO in Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in Handan, China

The reasonable allocation of water resources using different optimization technologies has received extensive attention. However, not all optimization algorithms are suitable for solving this problem because of its complexity. In this study, we applied an ameliorative multi-objective gray wolf optimizer (AMOGWO) to the problem. For AMOGWO, which is based on the multi-objective gray wolf optimizer, we improved the distance control parameter calculation method, added crowding degree for the archive, and optimized the selection mechanism for leader wolves. Subsequently, AMOGWO was used to solve the multi-objective optimal allocation of water resources in Handan, China, for 2035, with the maximum economic benefit and minimum social water shortage used as objective functions. The optimal results obtained indicate a total water demand in Handan of 2740.43 × 106 m3, total water distribution of 2442.23 × 106 m3, and water shortage of 298.20 × 106 m3, which is consistent with the principles of water resource utilization in Handan. Furthermore, comparison results indicate that AMOGWO has substantially enhanced convergence rates and precision compared to the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II and the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm, demonstrating relatively high reliability and applicability. This study thus provides a new method for solving the multi-objective optimal allocation of water resources.

A Hybrid Multi-Objective Optimizer-Based SVM Model for Enhancing Numerical Weather Prediction: A Study for the Seoul Metropolitan Area

Temperature forecasting is an area of ongoing research because of its importance in all life aspects. However, because a variety of climate factors controls the temperature, it is a never-ending challenge. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model has been frequently used to forecast air temperature. However, because of its deprived grid resolution and lack of parameterizations, it has systematic distortions. In this study, a gray wolf optimizer (GWO) and a support vector machine (SVM) are used to ensure accuracy and stability of the next day forecasting for minimum and maximum air temperatures in Seoul, South Korea, depending on local data assimilation and prediction system (LDAPS; a model of local NWP over Korea). A total of 14 LDAPS models forecast data, the daily maximum and minimum air temperatures of in situ observations, and five auxiliary data were used as input variables. The LDAPS model, the multimodal array (MME), the particle swarm optimizer with support vector machine (SVM-PSO), and the conventional SVM were selected as comparison models in this study to illustrate the advantages of the proposed model. When compared to the particle swarm optimizer and traditional SVM, the Gray Wolf Optimizer produced more accurate results, with the average RMSE value of SVM for T max and T min Forecast prediction reduced by roughly 51 percent when combined with GWO and 31 percent when combined with PSO. In addition, the hybrid model (SVM-GWO) improved the performance of the LDAPS model by lowering the RMSE values for T max Forecast and T min Forecast forecasting from 2.09 to 0.95 and 1.43 to 0.82, respectively. The results show that the proposed hybrid (GWO-SVM) models outperform benchmark models in terms of prediction accuracy and stability and that the suggested model has a lot of application potentials.

Variable Slope Forecasting Methods and COVID-19 Risk

There are many real-world situations in which complex interacting forces are best described by a series of equations. Traditional regression approaches to these situations involve modeling and estimating each individual equation (producing estimates of “partial derivatives”) and then solving the entire system for reduced form relationships (“total derivatives”). We examine three estimation methods that produce “total derivative estimates” without having to model and estimate each separate equation. These methods produce a unique total derivative estimate for every observation, where the differences in these estimates are produced by omitted variables. A plot of these estimates over time shows how the estimated relationship has evolved over time due to omitted variables. A moving 95% confidence interval (constructed like a moving average) means that there is only a five percent chance that the next total derivative would lie outside that confidence interval if the recent variability of omitted variables does not increase. Simulations show that two of these methods produce much less error than ignoring the omitted variables problem does when the importance of omitted variables noticeably exceeds random error. In an example, the spread rate of COVID-19 is estimated for Brazil, Europe, South Africa, the UK, and the USA.