The benefits, costs and feasibility of a low incidence COVID-19 strategy

Efficacy of adjuvant-associated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in randomized controlled trials: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Adjuvants may enhance the efficacy of vaccines. however, the efficacy of adjuvant-associated COVID-19 vaccines (ACVs) remains unclear since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to address this gap by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of the efficacy of ACVs against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 CoV (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOC).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the vaccine efficacy (VE) of ACVs against VOC (alpha, beta, gamma, delta, or Omicron), up to May 27, 2023. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model was used to assess VE with 95% confidence intervals (CI) through meta-analysis. Cochrane Risk of Bias tools were used to assess the risk of bias in RCTs.

RESULTS

Eight RCTs with 113,202 participants were included in the analysis, which incorporated 4 ACVs [Matrix-M (NVX-CoV2373), Alum (BBV152), CpG-1018/Alum (SCB-2019), and AS03 (CoVLP]). The pooled efficacy of full vaccination with ACVs against VOC was 88.0% (95% CI: 83.0-91.5). Full vaccination was effective against Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Gamma variants, with VE values of 93.66% (95% CI: 86.5-100.74), 64.70% (95% CI: 41.87-87.54), 75.95% (95% CI: 67.9-83.99), and 91.26% (95% CI: 84.35-98.17), respectively. Currently, there is a lack of RCT evidence regarding the efficacy of ACVs against the Omicron variant.

CONCLUSION

In this meta-analysis, it should be that full vaccination with ACVs has high efficacy against Alpha or Gamma variants and moderate efficacy against Beta and Delta variants. Notably, with the exception of the aluminum-adjuvanted vaccine, the other ACVs had moderate to high efficacy against the SARS-CoV-2 variant. This raises concerns about the effectiveness of ACVs booster vaccinations against Omicron.

CDC (Cindy and David's Conversations) game: Advising President to survive pandemic

Ongoing debates on anti-COVID19 policies have been focused on coexistence-with versus zero-out (virus) strategies, which can be simplified as "always open (AO)" versus "always closed (AC)." We postulate that a middle ground, dubbed LOHC (low-risk-open and high-risk-closed), is likely favorable, precluding obviously irrational HOLC (high-risk-open and low-risk-closed). From a meta-strategy perspective, these four policies cover the full spectrum of anti-pandemic policies. By emulating the reality of anti-pandemic policies today, the study aims to identify possible cognitive gaps and traps by harnessing the power of evolutionary game-theoretic analysis and simulations, which suggest that (1) AO and AC seem to be "high-probability" events (0.412-0.533); (2) counter-intuitively, the middle ground-LOHC-seems to be small-probability event (0.053), possibly mirroring its wide adoptions but broad failures. Besides devising specific policies, an equally important challenge seems to deal with often hardly avoidable policy transitions along the process from emergence, epidemic, through pandemic, to endemic state.

Perspectives on adaptive dynamical systems

Adaptivity is a dynamical feature that is omnipresent in nature, socio-economics, and technology. For example, adaptive couplings appear in various real-world systems, such as the power grid, social, and neural networks, and they form the backbone of closed-loop control strategies and machine learning algorithms. In this article, we provide an interdisciplinary perspective on adaptive systems. We reflect on the notion and terminology of adaptivity in different disciplines and discuss which role adaptivity plays for various fields. We highlight common open challenges and give perspectives on future research directions, looking to inspire interdisciplinary approaches.

A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols

Infectious diseases drive countries to provide vaccines to individuals. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, individuals prioritize receiving vaccinations worldwide. Although, priority groups are formed based on age groupings due to the restricted decision-making time. Governments usually ordain different health protocols such as lockdown policy, mandatory use of face masks, and vaccination during the pandemics. Therefore, this study considers the case of COVID-19 with a SEQIR (susceptible-exposed-quarantined-infected-recovered) epidemic model and presents a novel prioritization technique to minimize the social and economic impacts of the lockdown policy. We use retail units as one of the affected parts to demonstrate how a vaccination plan may be more effective if individuals such as retailers were prioritized and age groups. In addition, we estimate the total required vaccine doses to control the epidemic disease and compute the number of vaccine doses supplied by various suppliers. The vaccine doses are determined using optimal control theory in the solution technique. In addition, we consider the effect of the mask using policy in the number of vaccine doses allocated to each priority group. The model's performance is evaluated using an illustrative scenario based on a real case.

Policy Disparities Between Singapore and Israel in Response to the First Omicron Wave

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to evaluate public health measures during the first Omicron wave in Singapore and Israel to inform other countries confronted by COVID-19 outbreaks.

Methods

A comparative analysis was conducted using epidemiological data from Singapore and Israel between November 25th, 2021 and May 2nd, 2022 and policy information to examine the effects of public health measures in the two countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

Public health measures implemented by Singapore and Israel in response to the first Omicron wave were primarily intended to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Singapore, the pandemic led to more than 910,000 confirmed cases, a mortality rate of approximately 0.047%, a hospitalization rate of approximately 10.95%, and a severe illness rate of approximately 0.48%, without a second peak. In Israel, the pandemic not only resulted in over 2.74 million confirmed cases, a mortality rate of 0.095%, a hospitalization rate of about 7.39%, and a severe illness rate of approximately 2.30% but also returned after the significant relaxation of prevention regulations from March 1st, 2022.

Conclusion

Early and strict border control measures and surveillance measures are more effective in preventing and controlling the rapid spread of new strains of COVID-19 in the early stage. Furthermore, to prevent and control this highly infectious disease, COVID-19 vaccinations and booster shots must be promoted as soon as possible, medical service capacity must be enhanced, the hierarchical medical system must be improved, and non-pharmacological interventions must be implemented.

Proactive Contact Tracing

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting daily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as "pingdemic," may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users' infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

COVID-19 Pandemic: Hard lessons to learn

NIL

The case fatality rate of COVID-19 during the Delta and the Omicron epidemic phase: A meta-analysis

As coronavirus variants are constantly occurring, we tried to understand more about the omicron and delta variants that have hit the world. We provided dynamic information on the case fatality rate (CFR) of the Omicron variant over time and to compare it with that of the Delta variant through meta-analysis. Twenty-four countries were selected by submission counts, submission dates, and confirmed cases. We defined the Delta or the Omicron epidemic period for individual countries as when each variant is over 90%. We further analyzed the Omicron period by dividing it into the initial plateau, increasing, and decreasing phases according to the number of newly confirmed daily cases. Finally, the meta-analysis examined the summary and between-study heterogeneity. The CFR of COVID-19 during the Omicron epidemic was lower than that during the Delta epidemic (odds ratio [OR]: 0.252, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.205-0.309). The CFR of COVID-19 during the initial plateau phase of Omicron was higher than during other phases. (OR: 1.962, 95% CI 1.607-2.397). The CFR of COVID-19 during the increasing phase was lower than during the decreasing phases (OR: 0.412, 95% CI 0.342-0.498). The Omicron variant had lower CFR compared to the Delta variant, and the initial plateau phase had higher CFR compared to the noninitial phases. These results can help establish global health policies for COVID-19 in the future.

Understanding small-scale COVID-19 transmission dynamics with the Granger causality test

Mobility patterns have been broadly studied and deeply altered due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In this paper, we study small-scale COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the city of Valencia and the potential role of subway stations and healthcare facilities in this transmission. A total of 2,398 adult patients were included in the analysis. We study the temporal evolution of the pandemic during the first six months at a small-area level. Two Voronoi segmentations of the city (based on the location of subway stations and healthcare facilities) have been considered, and we have applied the Granger causality test at the Voronoi cell level, considering both divisions of the study area. Considering the output of this approach, the so-called 'donor stations' are subway stations that have sent more connections than they have received and are mainly located in interchanger stations. The transmission in primary healthcare facilities showed a heterogeneous pattern. Given that subway interchange stations receive many cases from other regions of the city, implementing isolation measures in these areas might be beneficial for the reduction of transmission.

Measuring efficiency of the global fight against the COVID-19 pandemic

Objectives

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented loss of life and a severe economic downturn across the globe. Countries have adopted various social distancing and vaccination policies to reduce the spread of the disease and lessen the impact on healthcare systems. The world should work together to confront the disaster and challenge of COVID-19.

Methods

This study uses stochastic frontier analysis to measure the efficiency and influencing factors of the global response to COVID-19 epidemics and to provide follow-up strategies and reference guidelines.

Results

The results of this study show that (1) the average efficiency of the global response to COVID-19 is not good, with significant space for improvement of up to 60%; (2) adequate medical supplies and equipment can reduce mortality; (3) the initial implementation of social distancing policies and wearing masks can effectively reduce the infection rate; and (4) as infection rates and vaccination rates increase so that most people have basic immunity to COVID-19, the epidemic will gradually be reduced.

Conclusions

As the world becomes more aware of the COVID-19 disease, humans will gradually return to normal social interaction and lifestyles. The results of this study are expected to provide a reference for the future direction of the global fight against epidemics and the improvement of public health policies.

Biosafety protection and workflow of clinical microbiology laboratory under COVID-19: A review

This paper mainly discusses how to do a good job of daily biosafety protection measures in clinical microbiology laboratories during the epidemic of COVID-19, so as to ensure the safe development of routine clinical microbiology testing items. According to the microbiological and epidemiological characteristics of the novel coronavirus, this paper analyzed the potential risks of the laboratory from the perspective of personal protection before, during, and after testing. Combined with the actual work situation, the improved biosafety protection measures and optimized work flow are introduced to ensure the safety of medical staff and the smooth development of daily work. Danyang People's Hospital of Jiangsu Province, clinical microbiology laboratory of clinical laboratory in strict accordance with the relevant laws and regulations, technical specifications and the expert consensus, combined with their own conditions, the biosafety measures to perfect the working process was optimized, effectively prevent the laboratory exposure, and maintain strict working condition for a long time, continue to improve. We found that the biosafety protection measures of clinical microbiology laboratory have good prevention and control effect on preventing infection of medical staff, which will greatly reduce the risk of infection of medical staff, form good working habits, and provide reference for biosafety protection of microbiology laboratory during the epidemic of COVID-19.

Ending the COVID-19 pandemic: We still have a long way to go

Spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant, which led to increased global hospitalizations for coronavirus disease 2019, generated concern about immune evasion and the duration of protection from vaccines, and undermined humanity's confidence in ending the epidemic. The sudden mutation and origin of Omicron is even more of a mystery. The article highlights the virological characteristics and possible origins of Omicron and the global threats and challenges it poses, as well as strategies to deal with it.

Green Transformation of Anti-Epidemic Supplies in the Post-Pandemic Era: An Evolutionary Approach

Post-pandemic, the use of medical supplies, such as masks, for epidemic prevention remains high. The explosive growth of medical waste during the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant environmental problems. To alleviate this, environment-friendly epidemic prevention measures should be developed, used, and promoted. However, contradictions exist between governments, production enterprises, and medical institutions regarding the green transformation of anti-epidemic supplies. Consequently, this study aimed to investigate how to effectively guide the green transformation. Concerning masks, a tripartite evolutionary game model, consisting of governments, mask enterprises, and medical institutions, was established for the supervision of mask production and use, boundary conditions of evolutionary stabilization strategies and government regulations were analyzed, and a dynamic system model was used for the simulation analysis. This analysis revealed that the only tripartite evolutionary stability strategy is for governments to deregulate mask production, enterprises to increase eco-friendly mask production, and medical institutions to use these masks. From the comprehensive analysis, a few important findings are obtained. First, government regulation can promote the green transformation process of anti-epidemic supplies. Government should realize the green transformation of anti-epidemic supplies immediately in order to avoid severe reputation damage. Second, external parameter changes can significantly impact the strategy selection process of all players. Interestingly, it is further found that the cost benefit for using environmentally friendly masks has a great influence on whether green transformation can be achieved. Consequently, the government should establish a favorable marketplace for, and promote the development of, inexpensive, high-quality, and effective environmentally friendly masks in order to achieve the ultimate goal of green transformation of anti-epidemic supplies in the post-pandemic era.