Global warming assessment suggests the endemic Brazilian kelp beds to be an endangered ecosystem

Distribution of a canopy-forming alga along the Western Atlantic Ocean under global warming: The importance of depth range

Sargassum species are among the most important canopy-forming algae in the Western Atlantic Ocean (WAO), providing habitat for many species and contributing to carbon uptake. The future distribution of Sargassum and other canopy-forming algae has been modelled worldwide, indicating that their occurrence in many regions is threatened by increased seawater temperature. Surprisingly, despite the recognized variation in vertical distribution of macroalgae, these projections generally do not evaluate their results at different depth ranges. This study aimed to project the potential current and future distributions of the common and abundant benthic Sargassum natans in the WAO (from southern Argentina to eastern Canada), under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios, through an ensemble SDM approach. Possible changes between present and future distributions were assessed within two depth ranges, namely areas up to 20 m and areas up to 100 m depth. Our models forecast different distributional trends for benthic S. natans depending on the depth range. Up to 100 m, suitable areas for the species will increase by 21% under RCP 4.5, and by 15% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. On the contrary, up to 20 m, suitable areas for the species will decrease by 4% under RCP 4.5 and by 14% under RCP 8.5, when compared to the potential current distribution. Under the worst scenario, losses up to 20 m depth will affect approximately 45,000 km2 of coastal areas across several countries and regions of WAO, with likely negative consequences for the structure and dynamics of coastal ecosystems. These findings highlight the importance of considering different depth ranges when building and interpreting predictive models of the distribution of habitat-forming subtidal macroalgae under climate change.

The effects of intraspecific variation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

As global climate change is altering the distribution range of macroalgae across the globe, it is critical to assess its impact on species range shifts to inform the biodiversity conservation of macroalgae. Latitude/environmental gradients could cause intraspecific variability, which may result in distinct responses to climate change. It remains unclear whether geographical variation occurs in the response of species' populations to climate change. We tested this assumption using the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, a habitat-forming macroalgae encompassing multiple divergent lineages along the Northwest Pacific. Previous studies revealed a distinct lineage of S. thunbergii in rear-edge populations. Given the phylogeographic structure and temperature gradients, we divided these populations into the southern and northern groups. We assessed the physiological responses of the two groups to temperature changes and estimated their niche differences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. A higher photosynthetic rate and antioxidative abilities were detected in the southern group of S. thunbergii than in the northern group. In addition, significant niche differentiation was detected between the two groups, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. Given these results, we inferred that the southern group (rear-edge populations) may be more resilient to climate change. To examine climate-driven range shifts of S. thunbergii, we constructed species- and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions of both levels showed considerable distribution contracts along the Chinese coasts in the future. For the southern group, the lineage-level model predicted less habitat loss than the species-level model. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal species.

Niche availability and habitat affinities of the red porgy Pagrus pagrus (Linnaeus, 1758): An important ecological player on the world's largest rhodolith beds

The red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) is a carnivore bottom dweller sparid, inhabiting flat sandy bottoms, rhodolith and seagrass beds of the Mediterranean Sea, the Western Atlantic (from Florida to Argentina) and the Eastern Atlantic (from Britain to Gabon). Along its native range, the red porgy is highly targeted by commercial and artisanal fisheries. In the past 40 years, the population decline of the species has been widely reported. In many locations, such as the Brazilian coast, stocks have collapsed. The central portion of the Brazilian coast harbours the largest rhodolith beds in the world and the highest levels of nektonic and benthic biodiversity. Along the rhodolith megahabitat, P. pagrus density is disproportionately higher (by 480%) than that of conspicuous benthic fishes inhabiting the same environment. Despite the ecological and economic importance of such an important species along its native range, little is known regarding its habitat use, niche availability and population responses to global warming. Here we present habitat affinities based on data sampled using baited remote stereo-video systems, and modelled niche availability and global warming populational responses. Our findings reveal that the red porgy is a species highly associated with rhodolith beds along the central portion of the Brazilian coast. The presence of a disproportional density and biomass of the red porgy, compared to other marine fish species, indicates that the species plays a key ecological role as a carnivore, mesoconsumer and prey/predator tolerant species, maintaining essential ecological functions in the habitat. In a global warming scenario, the model predicted populational niche shifts poleward and a severe niche erosion at lower latitudes as expected. Conservation initiatives (implementation of Maine Protected Areas, trawling exclusion zones, mining exclusion zones, fisheries management policies) are urgent to secure future stocks of the red porgy and also preserve the fragile rhodolith beds they inhabit.

Dynamic characteristics and synergistic effects of ecosystem services under climate change scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) supplies many ecosystem services (ESs) that maintain local and global pan-Asian populations and ecosystems. The effects of climate change on ES provision in the QTP will have far-reaching impacts on the region and the many downstream ecosystems and countries that depend on ESs from the "Third Pole". This study undertook a systematic assessment of ES provision, trade-offs and synergies between four ESs (raw material provision, water yield, soil retention, and carbon storage) under future climate scenarios (representative concentration pathway). The results show that: (1) the total amount of the four ESs on the QTP is predicted to increase from 1980 to 2100 for three climate change scenarios. (2) The spatial pattern of ESs on the QTP will not change significantly in the future, and the grassland and forest ESs in the central and southern regions are predicted to increase significantly. (3) The synergistic interactions among ESs were generally consistent at three spatial scales (10 km (pixel), county and watershed scales), but with more significant synergistic effects at the watershed scale. This demonstrates the necessity for the examination of scale-dependent ES dynamics and interactions. This study will supply a reference for further research on long-term ES assessments, especially the dynamic ES changes and the spatial scale dependency of the ES interactions, and provide evidence-based strategies for formulating ecosystem management on the QTP under climate change.

Taxonomic and functional diversity of benthic macrofauna associated with rhodolith beds in SE Brazil

Rhodoliths are free-living and morphologically diverse marine calcareous algae commonly distributed over the continental shelf seafloor. They increase the seabed structural complexity and are of potential value as feeding and reproductive grounds for a myriad of marine fauna. The higher structural seabed complexity within rhodolith beds may also increase benthic diversity by creating microhabitats, but this relationship has been rarely explored within rhodolith beds worldwide. Here we compared benthic macrofaunal (>500 µm) structure on rhodolith beds (nodule epifauna) and within unconsolidated sediments (sediment infauna) under high and low-density beds to test whether rhodolith bed density and nodule morphology influenced macrofaunal assemblages. We observed that macrofaunal density on nodules (2538 ± 288.7 ind·m-2) was 15-fold higher when compared to sediments under those beds (166 ± 38.8 ind·m-2). Rhodolith bed density was positively related to macrofaunal density, composition, and functional diversity on the rhodoliths. Low-density beds (61 ± 27.1 nodules·m-2) with discoid-shape nodules were dominated by peracarid crustaceans whereas high-density beds (204 ± 18.7 nodules·m-2) with spheroidal nodules were dominated by Annelid polychaetes. The sediment macrofauna was also positively influenced by the density of rhodolith nodules, which increased sediment carbonate and organic quality (protein and lipids) under high-density beds. Macrofaunal functional diversity was generally higher on rhodoliths, with low similarity (low nestedness) and high taxa turnover between macrofaunal assemblages of rhodoliths and sediments. These findings indicate that rhodolith beds provide an unique habitat for benthic macrofaunal communities, with exclusive functional and taxonomic richness that are likely not typical in the unconsolidated sediment below these beds in SE Brazil. This study highlights the importance of protecting rhodolith beds from multiple sources of anthropogenic disturbance and exploration on continental shelves.