Development of a reef fish biological condition gradient model with quantitative decision rules for the protection and restoration of coral reef ecosystems

Rapid prototyping for quantifying belief weights of competing hypotheses about emergent diseases

Emerging diseases can have devastating consequences for wildlife and require a rapid response. A critical first step towards developing appropriate management is identifying the etiology of the disease, which can be difficult to determine, particularly early in emergence. Gathering and synthesizing existing information about potential disease causes, by leveraging expert knowledge or relevant existing studies, provides a principled approach to quickly inform decision-making and management efforts. Additionally, updating the current state of knowledge as more information becomes available over time can reduce scientific uncertainty and lead to substantial improvement in the decision-making process and the application of management actions that incorporate and adapt to newly acquired scientific understanding. Here we present a rapid prototyping method for quantifying belief weights for competing hypotheses about the etiology of disease using a combination of formal expert elicitation and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We illustrate the application of this approach for investigating the etiology of stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) and discuss the opportunities and challenges of this approach for addressing emergent diseases. Lastly, we detail how our work may apply to other pressing management or conservation problems that require quick responses. We found the rapid prototyping methods to be an efficient and rapid means to narrow down the number of potential hypotheses, synthesize current understanding, and help prioritize future studies and experiments. This approach is rapid by providing a snapshot assessment of the current state of knowledge. It can also be updated periodically (e.g., annually) to assess changes in belief weights over time as scientific understanding increases. Synthesis and applications: The rapid prototyping approaches demonstrated here can be used to combine knowledge from multiple experts and/or studies to help with fast decision-making needed for urgent conservation issues including emerging diseases and other management problems that require rapid responses. These approaches can also be used to adjust belief weights over time as studies and expert knowledge accumulate and can be a helpful tool for adapting management decisions.

An integrative investigation of developmental toxicities induced by triphenyltin in a larval coral reef fish, Amphiprion ocellaris

Triphenyltin (TPT) is widely distributed on coastlines, which makes coral reef fish a potential target of TPT pollution. However, the negative effects of TPT on coral reef fish remain poorly understood. Therefore, in the present study, the larval coral reef fish Amphiprion ocellaris was used to investigate the developmental toxicities of TPT at environmentally relevant concentrations (0, 1, 10 and 100 ng/L). After TPT exposure for 14 d, the cumulative mortality increased, and growth was suppressed. In addition, TPT exposure inhibited the development of melanophores and xanthophores and delayed white strip formation, which might be responsible for the disruption of the genes (erbb3b, mitfa, kit, xdh, tyr, oca2, itk and trim33) related to pigmentation. TPT exposure also attenuated ossification of head skeletal elements and the vertebral column and inhibited the expression of genes (bmp2, bmp4 and sp7) related to skeletal development. The observed developmental toxicities on growth, pigmentation and skeleton development might be associated with the disruption of thyroid hormones and the genes related to thyroid hormone regulation (tshβ, thrα, thrβ, tg, tpo, dio2, and ttr). In addition, TPT exposure interfered with locomotor and shoaling behavior, and the related genes dbh, avp and avpr1aa. Taken together, our results suggest that TPT pollution might threaten the development of one of the most iconic coral reef fish, which might produce disastrous consequences on the health of coral reef ecosystems.

A biological condition gradient for coral reefs in the US Caribbean Territories: Part I. Coral narrative rules

As coral reef condition and sustainability continue to decline worldwide, losses of critical habitat and their ecosystem services have generated an urgency to understand and communicate reef response to management actions, environmental contamination, and natural disasters. Increasingly, coral reef protection and restoration programs emphasize the need for robust assessment tools for protecting high-quality waters and establishing conservation goals. Of equal importance is the need to communicate assessment results to stakeholders, beneficiaries, and the public so that environmental consequences of decisions are understood. The Biological Condition (BCG) model provides a structure to evaluate the condition of a coral reef in increments of change along a gradient of human disturbance. Communication of incremental change, regardless of direction, is important for decision makers and the public to better understand what is gained or lost depending on what actions are taken. We developed a narrative (qualitative) Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) from the consensus of a diverse expert panel to provide a framework for coral reefs in US Caribbean Territories. The model uses narrative descriptions of biological attributes for benthic organisms to evaluate reefs relative to undisturbed or minimally disturbed conditions. Using expert elicitation, narrative decision rules were proposed and deliberated to discriminate among six levels of change along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. Narrative rules for each of the BCG levels are presented to facilitate the evaluation of benthic communities in coral reefs and provide specific narrative features to detect changes in coral reef condition and biological integrity. The BCG model can be used in the absence of numeric, or quantitative metrics, to evaluate actions that may encroach on coral reef ecosystems, manage endangered species habitat, and develop and implement management plans for marine protected areas, watersheds, and coastal zones. The narrative BCG model is a defensible model and communication tool that translates scientific results so the nontechnical person can understand and support both regulatory and non-regulatory water quality and natural resource programs.

A biological condition gradient for Caribbean coral reefs: Part II. Numeric rules using sessile benthic organisms

The Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) is a conceptual model used to describe incremental changes in biological condition along a gradient of increasing anthropogenic stress. As coral reefs collapse globally, scientists and managers are focused on how to sustain the crucial structure and functions, and the benefits that healthy coral reef ecosystems provide for many economies and societies. We developed a numeric (quantitative) BGC model for the coral reefs of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to transparently facilitate ecologically meaningful management decisions regarding these fragile resources. Here, reef conditions range from natural, undisturbed conditions to severely altered or degraded conditions. Numeric decision rules were developed by an expert panel for scleractinian corals and other benthic assemblages using multiple attributes to apply in shallow-water tropical fore reefs with depths <30 m. The numeric model employed decision rules based on metrics (e.g., % live coral cover, coral species richness, pollution-sensitive coral species, unproductive and sediment substrates, % cover by Orbicella spp.) used to assess coral reef condition. Model confirmation showed the numeric BCG model predicted the panel's median site ratings for 84% of the sites used to calibrate the model and 89% of independent validation sites. The numeric BCG model is suitable for adaptive management applications and supports bioassessment and criteria development. It is a robust assessment tool that could be used to establish ecosystem condition that would aid resource managers in evaluating and communicating current or changing conditions, protect water and habitat quality in areas of high biological integrity, or develop restoration goals with stakeholders and other public beneficiaries.

Biological assessment of western USA sandy bottom rivers based on modeling historical and current fish and macroinvertebrate data

Biological monitoring is important for assessing the ecological condition of surface waters. However, there are challenges in determining what constitutes reference conditions, what assemblages should be used as indicators, and how assemblage data should be converted into quantitative indicator scores. In this study, we developed and applied biological condition gradient (BCG) modeling to fish and macroinvertebrate data previously collected from large, sandy bottom southwestern USA rivers. Such rivers are particularly vulnerable to altered flow regimes resulting from dams, water withdrawals and climate change. We found that sensitive ubiquitous taxa for both fish and macroinvertebrates had been replaced by more tolerant taxa, but that the condition assessment ratings based on fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages differed. We conclude that the BCG models based on both macroinvertebrate and fish assemblage condition were useful for classifying the condition of southwestern USA sandy bottom rivers. However, our fish BCG model was slightly more sensitive than the macroinvertebrate model to anthropogenic disturbance, presumably because we had historical fish data, and because fish may be more sensitive to dams and altered flow regimes than are macroinvertebrates.