Modelled estimates of fine sediment and particulate nutrients delivered from the Great Barrier Reef catchments

Compilation of riverine water quality data from the Great Barrier Reef catchment area, northeastern Australia

This manuscript describes the collation of available water quality data from the freshwater reaches of surface streams within the Great Barrier Reef catchment area, northeastern Australia. This compilation represents one of the most comprehensive online datasets for historical tropical and subtropical freshwater quality around the world. We document the criteria for selection of the data and associated publications as well as the processes of data cleaning used to produce a qualitative assessment of the datasets. The final compilation includes 41 individual datasets that collectively report 466 sites and contain over 26,000 discrete water quality sample records totaling more than 350,000 unique water quality results. Finally, we outline the nuances of the data that end users need to take into account when combining them for spatial and temporal analyses. The dataset ensures that these valuable water quality data collected over the past four decades are preserved for the next generations of researchers, practitioners, management agencies and policy makers.

Tracing sources of inorganic suspended particulate matter in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, Australia

Water clarity on the inshore Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is greatly influenced by terrestrial runoff of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Catchment sediment tracing studies often do not extend into the marine environment, preventing the analysis of preferential marine transport. This study employs novel collection and sediment tracing techniques to examine the transport of the terrigenous 'mineral' component of plume SPM within the GBR lagoon for two flood events. Utilising geochemical, radionuclide and clay mineral analysis, we trace terrigenous mineral sediments > 100 km from the river mouth. We show that the SPM geochemistry is highly influenced by particle-size fractionation, desorption, and dilution within the plume, rendering traditional tracing methods unviable. However, the ratios of rare earth elements (REE) to thorium (Th) provide stable tracers of mineral SPM transported across the catchment to marine continuum and allow the identification of discrete catchment sources for each flood event. Plume sediment radionuclides are also stable and consistent with sub-surface erosion sources.

Prioritising gully remediation in a Great Barrier Reef catchment: An approach using two independent methods of assessing erosion activity in 22,300 gullies

The strategic reduction and remediation of degraded land is a global environmental priority. This is a particular priority in the Great Barrier Reef catchment area, Australia, where gully erosion a significant contributor to land degradation and water quality deterioration. Urgent action through the prioritisation and remediation of gully erosion sites is imperative to safeguard this UNESCO World Heritage site. In this study, we analyze a comprehensive dataset of 22,311 mapped gullies within a 3480 km2 portion of the lower Burdekin Basin, northeast Australia. Utilizing high-resolution lidar datasets, two independent methods - Minimum Contemporary Estimate (MCE) and Lifetime Average Estimate (LAE) - were developed to derive relative erosion rates. These methods, employing different data processing approaches and addressing different timeframes across the gully lifetime, yield erosion rates varying by up to several orders of magnitude. Despite some expected divergence, both methods exhibit strong, positive correlations with each other and additional validation data. There is a 43% agreement between the methods for the highest yielding 2% of gullies, although 80.5% of high-yielding gullies identified by either method are located within a 1 km proximity of each other. Importantly, distributions from both methods independently reveal that ∼80% of total volume of gully erosion in the study area is produced from only 20% of all gullies. Moreover, the top 2% of gullies generate 30% of the sediment loss and the majority of gullies do not significantly contribute to the overall catchment sediment yield. These results underscore the opportunity to achieve significant environmental outcomes through targeted gully management by prioritising a small cohort of high yielding gullies. Further insights and implications for management frameworks are discussed in the context of the characteristics of this cohort. Overall, this research provides a basis for informed decision-making in addressing gully erosion and advancing environmental conservation efforts.

The effect of catchment load reductions on water quality in the crown-of-thorn starfish outbreak initiation zone

Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) population outbreaks contribute to coral cover decline on Indo-Pacific reefs. On the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), enhanced catchment nutrient loads are hypothesised to increase phytoplankton food for CoTS larvae in the outbreak initiation zone. This study examines whether catchment load reductions will improve water quality in this zone during the larval period. We defined the i) initiation zone's spatial extent; ii) larval stage's temporal extent; and iii) water quality thresholds related to larval food, from published information. We applied these to model simulations, developed to quantify the effect of catchment load reductions on GBR water quality (Baird et al., 2021), and found a consistently weak response of chlorophyll-a, total organic nitrogen and large zooplankton concentrations in the initiation zone. Model results indicate marine and atmospheric forcing are more likely to control the planktonic biomass in this zone, even during major flooding events purported to precede CoTS outbreaks.

The origin of suspended particulate matter in the Great Barrier Reef

River run-off has long been regarded as the largest source of organic-rich suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), contributing to high turbidity, pollutant exposure and increasing vulnerability of coral reef to climate change. However, the terrestrial versus marine origin of the SPM in the GBR is uncertain. Here we provide multiple lines of evidence (13C NMR, isotopic and genetic fingerprints) to unravel that a considerable proportion of the terrestrially-derived SPM is degraded in the riverine and estuarine mixing zones before it is transported further offshore. The fingerprints of SPM in the marine environment were completely different from those of terrestrial origin but more consistent with that formed by marine phytoplankton. This result indicates that the SPM in the GBR may not have terrestrial origin but produced locally in the marine environment, which has significant implications on developing better-targeted management practices for improving water quality in the GBR.

Dispersal of the pesticide diuron in the Great Barrier Reef

Pesticides from urban and agricultural runoff have been detected at concentrations above current water quality guidelines in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) marine environment. We quantify the load of the pesticide diuron entering GBR waters using the GBR-Dynamic SedNet catchment model. After comparison of simulated distributions with observations at 11 monitoring sites we determined a half-life of diuron in GBR marine waters of 40 days. We followed diuron dispersal in the GBR (2016-2018) using the 1 km resolution eReefs marine model. The highest diuron concentrations in GBR waters occurred in the Mackay-Whitsunday region with a spike in January and March 2017, associated with 126 and 118 kg d^-1 diuron loads from Plane Creek and the O'Connell River respectively. We quantify areas of GBR waters exposed to potentially ecotoxic concentrations of diuron. Between 2016 and 2018, 400 km² and 1400 km² of the GBR were exposed to concentrations exceeding ecosystem threshold values of 0.43 and 0.075 μg L^-1 respectively. Using observed mapped coral and seagrass habitat, 175 km² of seagrass beds and 50 km² of coral habitats had peak diuron concentrations above 0.075 μg L^-1 during this period. While the highest concentrations are localised to river plumes and inshore environments, non-zero diuron concentrations extend along the Queensland coast. These simulations provide new knowledge for the understanding of pesticide dispersal and management-use in GBR catchments and the design of in-water monitoring systems.

Challenges in modelling the sediment retention ecosystem service to inform an ecosystem account - Examples from the Mitchell catchment in northern Australia

A systems analysis perspective related to soil science is necessary to achieve many of the sustainability targets articulated by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework is the international statistical standard for quantifying both the contributions that ecosystems make to the economy, and the impacts of economic activity on ecosystems. However, due to the difficulty of obtaining empirical data on ecosystem service flows, in many cases such quantification is informed by ecosystem service models. Previous research on the Mitchell catchment, Queensland Australia provided a novel opportunity to quantify the implications of using a model of hillslope erosion and sediment delivery in isolation (as represented in one of the most frequently used ecosystem service models - InVEST), by comparing such estimates against multiple lines of local empirical data, and a more comprehensive representation of locally important erosion and deposition processes through a sediment budget model. Estimates of the magnitude of hillslope erosion modelled using an approach similar to InVEST and the calibrated sediment budget differed by an order of magnitude. If an uncalibrated InVEST-type model was used to inform the relative distribution of erosion magnitude, findings suggest the incorrect erosion process would be identified as the dominant contributor to suspended sediment loads. However, the sediment budget model could only be calibrated using data on sediment sources and sinks that had been collected through sustained research effort in the catchment. A comparable level of research investment may not be available to inform ecosystem service assessments elsewhere. Findings for the Mitchell catchment demonstrate that practitioners should exercise caution when using model-derived estimates of the sediment retention ecosystem service, which have not been calibrated and validated against locally collected empirical data, to inform an ecosystem account and progress towards achieving the SDGs.

Impact of European settlement and land use changes on Great Barrier Reef river catchments reconstructed from long-term coral Ba/Ca records

The increase in sediment and nutrient loads entering the coastal waters of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and the associated degradation of water quality represents a major threat to coral reefs. Although the strengthening of preventative management strategies remains a priority, there is a general lack of terrestrial runoff baseline information with respect to the spatial and temporal severity of disturbances associated with ongoing European-style land use practices. Here we use new and existing high-resolution coral Ba/Ca and luminescence records from the central Cairns region to the southern GBR shelf to reconstruct sediment fluxes discharged into the GBR from before European settlement in the 1860s to the present-day. Since the commencement of European settlement in the 1860s we document a tripling of flood-plume suspended sediment loads delivered by the Burdekin River to the GBR lagoon relative to 'natural' pre-European baseline levels. We show that this is indicative of a much more extreme degradation of the river catchments than hitherto appreciated with intensified discharge events particularly from the central and southern catchments carrying higher sediment loads. More-over from the 1930s onwards the Burdekin River, the largest source of both sediment and freshwater to the GBR, has also exhibited a progressive northwards expansion of its flood plume. This, together with increased variability of freshwater inputs indicated by coral luminescence records, now shows that the inner GBR not only continues to be impacted by increasing sediment/nutrient loads but is also subject to higher intensity river discharge events due to the loss of ground cover causing increased overland runoff and erosion.

Ten years of monitoring dissolved inorganic nitrogen in runoff from sugarcane informs development of a modelling algorithm to prioritise organic and inorganic nutrient management

Reducing nitrogen (N) losses from cropping systems to aquatic ecosystems is a global priority. In Australia, N losses from sugarcane production in catchments adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are threatening the health of this World Heritage-listed coral reef ecosystem. N losses from sugarcane can be reduced by improving fertiliser management. However, little is known about the contribution of organic sources of N, such as mill mud. We used more than 10 years of data from two of the main Australian sugarcane regions, a high (Wet Tropics) and moderate (Mackay Whitsundays) rainfall area, to calibrate and validate a model to predict dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) losses in runoff from both inorganic and organic fertilisers. DIN losses in runoff were well simulated (RMSE = 0.37 and 2.0 kg N ha^-1 for the Wet Tropics and Mackay Whitsunday regions, respectively). Long-term simulations of rate and fertiliser deductions to account for N from organic sources showed that adopting best management practices for organic fertiliser (applying ≤50 wet t ha^-1 mill mud) can significantly reduce DIN in runoff losses compared with applications of 150 wet t ha^-1. Simulations of typical farmer practices in relation to fallow management (bare fallow vs. legume fallow) and organic fertiliser placement (buried in a fallow but surface applied to a green cane trash blanket in ratoons) showed that inorganic fertiliser rates need to be adjusted to account for N inputs from both mill mud and legume crops. Rates of application of organic N had a larger impact on DIN runoff losses than placement or timing of application. This work presents a DIN in runoff modelling algorithm that can be coupled with nitrogen models readily available in agricultural models to assess the impact of nutrient management on the quality of water leaving agricultural systems.

A conceptual model of nitrogen dynamics for the Great Barrier Reef catchments

Nitrogen (N) from anthropogenic sources has been identified as a major pollutant of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. We developed a conceptual framework to synthesise and visualise the fate and transport of N from the catchments to the sea from a literature review. The framework was created to fit managers and policymakers' requirements to reduce N in the GBR catchments. We used this framework to determine the N stocks and transformations (input, sources, and outputs) for ecosystems commonly found in the GBR: rainforests, palustrine wetlands, lakes, rivers (in-stream), mangroves and seagrasses. We included transformations of N such as nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, mineralisation, anammox, sedimentation, plant uptake, and food web transfers. This model can be applied to other ecosystems to understand the transport and fate of N within and between catchments. Importantly, this approach can guide management actions that attenuate N at different scales and locations within the GBR ecosystems. Finally, when combined with local hydrological modelling, this framework can be used to predict outcomes of management activities.

Pre-development denudation rates for the Great Barrier Reef catchments derived using 10Be

Understanding of the pre-development, baseline denudation rates that deliver sediment to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has been elusive. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in sediment is a useful integrator of denudation rates and sediment yields averaged over large spatial and temporal scales. This study presents ¹⁰Be data from 71 sites across 11 catchments draining to the GBR: representing 80% of the GBR catchment area and provide background sediment yields for the region. Modern, short-term, sediment yields derived from suspended load concentrations are compared to the ¹⁰Be data to calculate an Accelerated Erosion Factor (AEF) that highlights denudation "hot-spots" where sediment yields have increased over the long-term background values. The AEF results show that 58% basins have higher modern sediment yields than long-term yields. The AEF is considered a useful approach to help prioritise on-ground investments in remediation and the additional measured empirical data in this paper will help support future predictive models.

Modelled estimates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen exported to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon

Measuring stream pollutant loads across the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchment area (GBRCA) is challenging due to the spatial extent, climate variability, changing land use and evolving land management practices, and cost. Thus, models are used to estimate baseline pollutant loads. The eWater Source modelling framework is coupled with agricultural paddock scale models and the GBR Dynamic SedNet plugin to simulate dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) generation and transport processes across the GBRCA. Catchment scale monitoring of flow and loads are used to calibrate the models, and performance is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively. Modelling indicates almost half (47%) of the total modelled DIN load exported to the GBR lagoon is from the Wet Tropics, and almost half of the total modelled DIN load is from sugarcane areas. We demonstrate that using locally developed, customised models coupled with a complementary monitoring program can produce reliable estimates of pollutant loads.

Heavy grazing of buffel grass pasture in the Brigalow Belt bioregion of Queensland, Australia, more than tripled runoff and exports of total suspended solids compared to conservative grazing

Loss of sediment and particulate nutrients in runoff from the extensive grazing lands of the Fitzroy Basin, central Queensland, continue to contribute to the declining health of the Great Barrier Reef. This study measured differences in hydrology and water quality from conservative and heavy grazing pressures on rundown improved grass pastures in the Fitzroy Basin. Conservative grazing pressure was defined as the safe long-term carrying capacity for rundown buffel grass pasture, whereas heavy grazing pressure was defined as the recommended stocking rate for newly established buffel grass pasture. Heavy grazing of rundown pasture resulted in 2.5 times more bare ground and only 8% of the pasture biomass compared to conservative grazing. Heavy grazing also resulted in 3.6 times more total runoff and 3.3 times the peak runoff rate compared to conservative grazing. Loads of total suspended solids, nitrogen and phosphorus in runoff were also greater from heavy than conservative grazing.

Connecting targets for catchment sediment loads to ecological outcomes for seagrass using multiple lines of evidence

Catchment impacts on downstream ecosystems are difficult to quantify, but important for setting management targets. Here we compared 12 years of monitoring data of seagrass area and biomass in Cleveland Bay, northeast Australia, with discharge and associated sediment loads from nearby rivers. Seagrass biomass and area exhibited different trajectories in response to river inputs. River discharge was a slightly better predictor of seagrass indicators than total suspended solid (TSS) loads, indicating that catchment effects on seagrass are not restricted to sediment. Linear relationships between Burdekin River TSS loads delivered over 1-4 years and seagrass condition in Cleveland Bay generated Ecologically Relevant Targets (ERT) for catchment sediment inputs. Our predicted ERTs were comparable to those previously estimated using mechanistic models. This study highlights the challenges of linking catchment inputs to condition of downstream ecosystems, and the importance of integrating a variety of metrics and approaches to increase confidence in ERTs.

The effect of natural and anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loads on coral oxidative stress on runoff-exposed reefs

Recently, corals on the Great Barrier (GBR) have suffered mass bleaching. The link between ocean warming and coral bleaching is understood to be due to temperature-dependence of complex physiological processes in the coral host and algal symbiont. Here we use a coupled catchment-hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model, with detailed zooxanthellae photophysiology including photoadaptation, photoacclimation and reactive oxygen build-up, to investigate whether natural and anthropogenic catchment loads impact on coral bleaching on the GBR. For the wet season of 2017, simulations show the cross-shelf water quality gradient, driven by both natural and anthropogenic loads, generated a contrasting zooxanthellae physiological state on inshore versus mid-shelf reefs. The relatively small catchment flows and loads delivered during 2017, however, generated small river plumes with limited impact on water quality. Simulations show the removal of the anthropogenic fraction of the catchment loads delivered in 2017 would have had a negligible impact on bleaching rates.

Measuring sediment grain size across the catchment to reef continuum: Improved methods and environmental insights

Sediments collected within freshwater, estuarine and marine habitats were used to trial various chemical and physical pre-treatments to develop a systematic protocol for grain-size analysis using laser diffraction. Application of this protocol mitigates the influence of bio-physical processes that may transform grain-size distributions, enabling the characterisation and quantification of 'primary' mineral sediments across the complex freshwater-marine continuum to be more reliably assessed. Application of the protocol to two Great Barrier Reef (Australia) river catchments and their estuaries reveals the ecologically relevant <20 μm fraction comprises a larger component of exported sediment than existing methods indicate. These findings are highly relevant when comparing measured data to grain-size-specific modelled sediment loads and water-quality targets. Finally, adoption of the protocol also improves the environmental interpretation of the influence of 'terrigenous sediment' in marine settings, including quantification of newly-delivered flood plume sediment.

Impact of catchment-derived nutrients and sediments on marine water quality on the Great Barrier Reef: An application of the eReefs marine modelling system

Water quality of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is determined by a range of natural and anthropogenic drivers that are resolved in the eReefs coupled hydrodynamic - biogeochemical marine model forced by a process-based catchment model, GBR Dynamic SedNet. Model simulations presented here quantify the impact of anthropogenic catchment loads of sediments and nutrients on a range of marine water quality variables. Simulations of 2011-2018 show that reduction of anthropogenic catchment loads results in improved water quality, especially within river plumes. Within the 16 resolved river plumes, anthropogenic loads increased chlorophyll concentration by 0.10 (0.02-0.25) mg Chl m^-3. Reductions of anthropogenic loads following proposed Reef 2050 Water Quality Improvement Plan targets reduced chlorophyll concentration in the plumes by 0.04 (0.01-0.10) mg Chl m^-3. Our simulations demonstrate the impact of anthropogenic loads on GBR water quality and quantify the benefits of improved catchment management.

Land use change in the river basins of the Great Barrier Reef, 1860 to 2019: A foundation for understanding environmental history across the catchment to reef continuum

Land use in the catchments draining to the Great Barrier Reef lagoon has changed considerably since the introduction of livestock grazing, various crops, mining and urban development. Together these changes have resulted in increased pollutant loads and impaired coastal water quality. This study compiled records to produce annual time-series since 1860 of human population, livestock numbers and agricultural areas at the scale of surface drainage river basins, natural resource management regions and the whole Great Barrier Reef catchment area. Cattle and several crops have experienced progressive expansion interspersed by declines associated with droughts and diseases. Land uses which have experienced all time maxima since the year 2000 include cattle numbers and the areas of sugar cane, bananas and cotton. A Burdekin Basin case study shows that sediment loads initially increased with the introduction of livestock and mining, remained elevated with agricultural development, and declined slightly with the Burdekin Falls Dam construction.