Molecular typing of the local HIV-1 epidemic in Serbia

HIV-1 subtype B spread through cross-border clusters in the Balkans: a molecular analysis in view of incidence trends

OBJECTIVES

To analyze phylogenetic relations and assess the role of cross-border clusters in the spread of HIV-1 subtype B across the Balkans, given the general trends of new HIV diagnoses in seven Balkan countries.

DESIGN

Retrospective phylogenetic and trend analysis.

METHODS

In-depth phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analysis performed on 2415 HIV-1 subtype B sequences from 1999 to 2019 using maximal likelihood and Bayesian methods. The joinpoint regression analysis of new HIV diagnoses by country and modes of transmission using 2004-2019 ECDC data.

RESULTS

Ninety-three HIV-1 Subtype B transmission clusters (68% of studied sequences) were detected of which four cross-border clusters (11% of studied sequences). Phylodynamic analysis showed activity of cross-border clusters up until the mid-2000s, with a subsequent stationary growth phase. Phylogeography analyses revealed reciprocal spread patterns between Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro and several introductions to Romania from these countries and Croatia. The joinpoint analysis revealed a reduction in new HIV diagnoses in Romania, Greece and Slovenia, whereas an increase in Serbia, Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, predominantly among MSM.

CONCLUSION

Differing trends of new HIV diagnoses in the Balkans mirror differences in preventive policies implemented in participating countries. Regional spread of HIV within the countries of former Yugoslavia has continued to play an important role even after country break-up, whereas the spread of subtype B through multiple introductions to Romania suggested the changing pattern of travel and migration linked to European integration of Balkan countries in the early 2000s.

Reconstructing the Temporal Origin and the Transmission Dynamics of the HIV Subtype B Epidemic in St. Petersburg, Russia

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia is among the fastest growing in the world. HIV epidemic burden is non-uniform in different Russian regions and diverse key populations. An explosive epidemic has been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) starting from the mid-1990s, whereas presently, the majority of new infections are linked to sexual transmission. Nationwide, HIV sub-subtype A6 (previously called A_FSU) predominates, with the increasing presence of other subtypes, namely subtype B and CRF063_02A. This study explores HIV subtype B sequences from St. Petersburg, collected from 2006 to 2020, in order to phylogenetically investigate and characterize transmission clusters, focusing on their evolutionary dynamics and potential for further growth, along with a socio-demographic analysis of the available metadata. In total, 54% (107/198) of analyzed subtype B sequences were found grouped in 17 clusters, with four transmission clusters with the number of sequences above 10. Using Bayesian MCMC inference, tMRCA of HIV-1 subtype B was estimated to be around 1986 (95% HPD 1984-1991), whereas the estimated temporal origin for the four large clusters was found to be more recent, between 2001 and 2005. The results of our study imply a complex pattern of the epidemic spread of HIV subtype B in St. Petersburg, Russia, still in the exponential growth phase, and in connection to the men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission, providing a useful insight needed for the design of public health priorities and interventions.

HIV-1 genetic diversity and demographic characteristics in Bulgaria

HIV-1 strain diversity in Bulgaria is extensive and includes contributions from nearly all major subtypes and the Circulating Recombinant Forms (CRF): 01_AE, 02_AG, and 05_DF. Prior to this study, HIV-1 sequence information from Bulgaria has been based solely on the pro-RT gene, which represent less than 15% of the viral genome. To further characterize HIV-1 in Bulgaria, assess participant risk behaviors, and strengthen knowledge of circulating strains in the region, the study “Genetic Subtypes of HIV-1 in Bulgaria (RV240)” was conducted. This study employed the real time-PCR based Multi-region Hybridization Assay (MHA) B/non-B and HIV-1 sequencing to survey 215 of the approximately 1100 known HIV-1 infected Bulgarian adults (2008–2009) and determine if they were infected with subtype B HIV-1. The results indicated a subtype B prevalence of 40% and demonstrate the application of the MHA B/non-B in an area containing broad HIV-1 strain diversity. Within the assessed risk behaviors, the proportion of subtype B infection was greatest in men who have sex with men and lowest among those with drug use risk factors. During this study, 15 near full-length genomes and 22 envelope sequences were isolated from study participants. Phylogenetic analysis shows the presence of subtypes A1, B, C, F1, and G, CRF01_AE, CRF02_AG, CRF05_DF, and one unique recombinant form (URF). These sequences also show the presence of two strain groups containing participants with similar risk factors. Previous studies in African and Asian cohorts have shown that co-circulation of multiple subtypes can lead to viral recombination within super-infected individuals and the emergence of new URFs. The low prevalence of URFs in the presence of high subtype diversity in this study, may be the result of successful infection prevention and control programs. Continued epidemiological monitoring and support of infection prevention programs will help maintain control of the HIV-1 epidemic in Bulgaria.

Comparison of Demographic, Epidemiological, Immunological, and Clinical Characteristics of Patients with HIV Mono-infection Versus Patients Co-infected with HCV or/and HBV: A Serbian Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to correlate the status of hepatitis C (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) co-infection in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection with clinical and demographic data prior to starting highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and assess the impact of HCV and HBV co-infection on the natural history of HIV infection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study involved a total of 836 treatment-naive patients with available serological status for HBV and HCV at the point of therapy initiation. Patients were stratified into four groups: HIV mono-infection, HIV/HCV, HIV/HBV, and HIV/HCV/HBV co-infection. Demographic, epidemiological, immunological and clinical characteristics were analyzed in order to assess the possible impact of HCV and HBV co-infection on HIV - related immunodeficiency and progression to AIDS.

RESULTS

The prevalence of HCV and HBV co-infection in our cohort was 25.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Triple HIV/HCV/HBV infection was recorded in 1.7% of the patients. In comparison with those co-infected with HCV, patients with HIV mono-infection had lower levels of serum liver enzymes activity and higher CD4 cell counts, and were less likely to have CD4 cell counts below100 cells/µL and clinical AIDS, with OR 0.556 and 0.561, respectively. No difference in the development of advanced immunodeficiency and/or AIDS was recorded between patients with HIV monoinfection and those co-infected with HBV, or both HCV/HBV.

CONCLUSION

HIV/HCV co-infection was found to be more prevalent than HIV/HBV co-infection in a Serbian cohort. Co-infection with HCV was related to more profound immunodeficiency prior to therapy initiation, reflecting a possible unfavorable impact of HCV on the natural history of HIV infection.

Exploring Evolutionary and Transmission Dynamics of HIV Epidemic in Serbia: Bridging Socio-Demographic With Phylogenetic Approach

Previous molecular studies of Serbian HIV epidemic identified the dominance of subtype B and presence of clusters related HIV-1 transmission, in particular among men who have sex with men (MSM). In order to get a deeper understanding of the complexities of HIV sub-epidemics in Serbia, epidemic trends, temporal origin and phylodynamic characteristics in general population and subpopulations were analyzed by means of mathematical modeling, phylogenetic analysis and latent class analysis (LCA). Fitting of the logistic curve of trends for a cumulative annual number of new HIV cases in 1984–2016, in general population and MSM transmission group, was performed. Both datasets fitted the logistic growth model, showing the early exponential phase of the growth curve. According to the suggested model, in the year 2030, the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases in Serbia will continue to grow, in particular in the MSM transmission group. Further, a detailed phylogenetic analysis was performed on 385 sequences from the period 1997–2015. Identification of transmission clusters, estimation of population growth (Ne), of the effective reproductive number (Re) and time of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) were estimated employing Bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. A substantial proportion of 53% of subtype B sequences was found within transmission clusters/network. Phylodynamic analysis revealed Re over one during the whole period investigated, with the steepest slopes and a recent tMRCA for MSM transmission group subtype B clades, in line with a growing trend in the number of transmissions in years approaching the end of the study period. Contrary, heterosexual clades in both studied subtypes – B and C – showed modest growth and stagnation. LCA analysis identified five latent classes, with transmission clusters dominantly present in 2/5 classes, linked to MSM transmission living in the capital city and with the high prevalence of co-infection with HBV and/or other STIs.Presented findings imply that HIV epidemic in Serbia is still in the exponential growth phase, in particular, related to the MSM transmission, with estimated steep growth curve until 2030. The obtained results imply that an average new HIV patient in Serbia is a young man with concomitant sexually transmitted infection.

Defining HIV-1 transmission clusters based on sequence data

Understanding HIV-1 transmission dynamics is relevant to both screening and intervention strategies of HIV-1 infection. Commonly, HIV-1 transmission chains are determined based on sequence similarity assessed either directly from a sequence alignment or by inferring a phylogenetic tree. This review is aimed at both nonexperts interested in understanding and interpreting studies of HIV-1 transmission, and experts interested in finding the most appropriate cluster definition for a specific dataset and research question. We start by introducing the concepts and methodologies of how HIV-1 transmission clusters usually have been defined. We then present the results of a systematic review of 105 HIV-1 molecular epidemiology studies summarizing the most common methods and definitions in the literature. Finally, we offer our perspectives on how HIV-1 transmission clusters can be defined and provide some guidance based on examples from real life datasets.

Intravenous drug use - an independent predictor for HCV genotypes 3 and 4 infection among HIV/HCV co-infected patients

INTRODUCTION

About one quarter of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected persons in Serbia have also been found to be hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected. In the general population, HCV genotype 1 has been shown to be the most prevalent one. Here, we present the first study on the distribution of HCV genotypes among HIV/HCV co-infected patients in Serbia, in relation to epidemiological and clinical features.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study included HIV/HCV co-infected and a group of HCV mono-infected patients in the period 1998-2012, with collection of epidemiological, clinical, and behavioral data using a standardized questionnaire. The HCV genotyping to the level of pure genotype was performed by reverse hybridization.

RESULTS

Intravenous drug use (IDU) was found to be significantly more prevalent among the co-infected patients (p < 0.01). HCV genotype 1 was detected in 87% of patients with mono-infection, compared to 46.3% of patients with co-infection (p < 0.01); genotypes 3 and 4 were significantly more common among co-infected patients (6% and 5%, vs. 27% and 25%, respectively). Multivariate logistic regression confirmed IDU, infection with non-1 HCV genotype and HCV viral load over 5 log to be predictors of HIV co-infection.

CONCLUSIONS

The HCV genotypes 3 and 4 were found to be significantly more prevalent among HIV/HCV co-infected patients in Serbia, compared to HCV mono-infected patients, but also more prevalent compared to the European HIV/HCV co-infected cohort. History of IDU represents an independent predictor of HCV genotypes 3 and 4 infection, with important implications for treatment.

Forensic application of phylogenetic analyses - Exploration of suspected HIV-1 transmission case

Transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) between individuals may have important legal implications and therefore may come to require forensic investigation based upon phylogenetic analysis. In criminal trials results of phylogenetic analyses have been used as evidence of responsibility for HIV transmission. In Serbia, as in many countries worldwide, exposure and deliberate transmission of HIV are criminalized. We present the results of applying state of the art phylogenetic analyses, based on pol and env genetic sequences, in exploration of suspected HIV transmission among three subjects: a man and two women, with presumed assumption of transmission direction from one woman to a man. Phylogenetic methods included relevant neighbor-joining (NJ), maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods of phylogenetic trees reconstruction and hypothesis testing, that has been shown to be the most sensitive for the reconstruction of epidemiological links mostly from sexually infected individuals. End-point limiting-dilution PCR (EPLD-PCR) assay, generating the minimum of 10 sequences per genetic region per subject, was performed to assess HIV quasispecies distribution and to explore the direction of HIV transmission between three subjects. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the viral sequences from the three subjects were more genetically related to each other than to other strains circulating in the same area with the similar epidemiological profile, forming strongly supported transmission chain, which could be in favour of a priori hypothesis of one of the women infecting the man. However, in the EPLD based phylogenetic trees for both pol and env genetic region, viral sequences of one subject (man) were paraphyletic to those of two other subjects (women), implying the direction of transmission opposite to the a priori assumption. The dated tree in our analysis confirmed the clustering pattern of query sequences. Still, in the context of unsampled sequences and inherent limitations of the applied methods, we cannot unambiguously prove that HIV-1 transmission occurred directly between two individuals. Further exploration of the known and suspected transmission cases is needed in order to define methodologies and establish their reliability.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Europe: An overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterised by vast genetic diversity. Globally circulating HIV-1 viruses are classified into distinct phylogenetic strains (subtypes, sub-subtypes) and several recombinant forms. Here we describe the characteristics and evolution of European HIV-1 epidemic over time through a review of published literature and updated queries of existing HIV-1 sequence databases. HIV-1 in Western and Central Europe was introduced in the early-1980s in the form of subtype B, which is still the predominant clade. However, in Eastern Europe (Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and Russia) the predominant strain, introduced into Ukraine in the mid-1990s, is subtype A (A_FSU) with transmission mostly occurring in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). In recent years, the epidemic is evolving towards a complex tapestry with an increase in the prevalence of non-B subtypes and recombinants in Western and Central Europe. Non-B epidemics are mainly associated with immigrants, heterosexuals and females but more recently, non-B clades have also spread amongst groups where non-B strains were previously absent - non-immigrant European populations and amongst men having sex with men (MSM). In some countries, non-B clades have spread amongst the native population, for example subtype G in Portugal and subtype A in Greece, Albania and Cyprus. Romania provides a unique case where sub-subtype F1 has predominated throughout the epidemic. In contrast, HIV-1 epidemic in FSU countries remains more homogeneous with A_FSU clade predominating in all countries. The differences between the evolution of the Western epidemic and the Eastern epidemic may be attributable to differences in transmission risk behaviours, lifestyle and the patterns of human mobility. The study of HIV-1 epidemic diversity provides a useful tool by which we can understand the history of the pandemic in addition to allowing us to monitor the spread and growth of the epidemic over time.

Low HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance in Bulgaria against a background of high clade diversity

OBJECTIVES

To determine transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and HIV-1 genetic diversity in Bulgaria.

METHODS

The prevalence of TDR and HIV-1 subtypes was determined in 305/1446 (21.1%) persons newly diagnosed with HIV/AIDS from 1988 to 2011. TDR mutations (TDRMs) in protease and reverse transcriptase were defined using the WHO HIV drug mutation list. Phylogenetic analysis was used to infer polymerase (pol) genotype.

RESULTS

TDRMs were found in 16/305 (5.2%) persons, 11 (3.6%) with resistance to NRTIs, 5 (1.6%) with resistance to NNRTIs and 3 (0.9%) with resistance to PIs. Dual-class TDRMs were found in three (1.0%) patients and one statistically supported cluster of TDRMs comprising two individuals with subtype B infection. TDRMs were found in 10 heterosexuals, 4 MSM and two intravenous drug users. Phylogenetic analyses identified high HIV-1 diversity consisting of mostly subtype B (44.6%), subtype C (3.3%), sub-subtype A1 (2.6%), sub-subtype F1 (2.3%), sub-subtype A-like (3.6%), subtype G (0.3%), CRF14_BG (1.6%), CRF05_DF (1.3%), CRF03_AB (0.3%) and unique recombinant forms (1.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

We found a low prevalence of TDR against a background of high HIV-1 genetic diversity among antiretroviral-naive patients in Bulgaria. Our results provide baseline data on TDR and support continued surveillance of high-risk populations in Bulgaria to better target treatment and prevention efforts.

Molecular tools for studying HIV transmission in sexual networks

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Phylogenetics is frequently used for studies of population-based HIV transmission. The purpose of this review is to highlight the current utilities and limitations of phylogenetics in HIV epidemiological research from sample collection through to data analysis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Studies of HIV phylogenies can provide critical information about HIV epidemics that are otherwise difficult to obtain through traditional study design such as transmission of drug-resistant virus, mixing between demographic groups, and rapidity of viral spread within populations. However, recent results from empirical and theoretical studies of HIV phylogenies challenge some of the key assumptions and interpretations from phylogenetic studies. Recent findings include lack of transmission bottlenecks in MSM and injection drug use epidemics, evidence for preferential transmission of HIV virus in heterosexual epidemics, and limited evidence that tree topologies correlate directly with underlying network structures. Other challenges include a lack of a standardized definition for a phylogenetic transmission cluster and biased or sparse sampling of HIV transmission networks.

SUMMARY

Phylogenetics is an important tool for HIV research, and offers opportunities to understand critical aspects of the HIV epidemic. Like all epidemiological research, the methods used and interpretation of results from phylogenetic studies should be made cautiously with careful consideration.

Ten years survey of primary HIV-1 resistance in Serbia: the occurrence of multiclass resistance

In Serbia, the first cases of HIV infection were reported in 1985, whereas antiretroviral (ARV) therapy has been in use since 1987. With this study we aimed to assess the occurrence and pattern of HIV resistance mutations among newly diagnosed patients in the period 2002-2011. The study prospectively included 181 adult patients. Genotypic HIV-1 drug resistance testing was performed and drug resistance was scored according to the 2009 WHO list for surveillance of drug resistance mutations (SDRMs). A bioinformatic approach was used to estimate the duration of infection by calculating the percentage of ambiguous basecalls per sequence, with a cutoff of 0.47% as the delimiter for recent infection. The overall prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) found in the study was 8.8% (16/181, 95% CI=5.5-13.8). Thirty-one percent of resistant samples contained multiple SDRMs. In particular, 5/16 patients with resistance carried viral strains with SDRMs to multiple ARV classes, hence one-third of resistant strains were multiclass resistant, including non-B strains. A total of 51.9% of samples (94/181) were classified as recent infection, with a significant increase in the second part of the study period. However, the prevalence of TDR in recent infection was 6.4% (6/94, 95% CI=2.9-13.2), not statistically different from that found in nonrecent infection. We showed a changing pattern of TDR mutations over the study period, with a substantial occurrence of multiclass resistance, across different HIV subtypes. Our results highlight the need for continued surveillance of primary resistance.