GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures

Proposal for a Fuzzy Model to Assess Cost Overrun in Healthcare Due to Delays in Treatment

Apart from the effects of treating those infected with COVID-19, the pandemic has also affected treatment for other diseases, which has been either interrupted or canceled. The aim of this paper is to provide a financial model for obtaining the cost overrun resulting from the worsening of illnesses and deaths for each of the causes considered. To achieve this, first deaths have been classified into causes of death and for each of these causes, an estimation has been made of the worsening condition of patients due to delay in treatment. Through these data, a fuzzy relation between deaths and the worsening condition of patients can be obtained. Next, the expertise process has been used to estimate cost overrun in relation to patients’ pathologies. The experts’ opinions have been aggregated using ordered weighted average (OWA). Lastly, using fuzzy logic again, a correction coefficient has been determined, which optimizes the future implementation of the proposed model without the need for a new estimation of inputs. The paper concludes with a numerical example for a better comprehension of the proposed theoretical model. Ultimately, it provides the scientific community in general and in particular managers of public administration entities with a novel tool for improving the efficiency of the healthcare system.

Fuzzy Logic and Its Uses in Finance: A Systematic Review Exploring Its Potential to Deal with Banking Crises

The major success of fuzzy logic in the field of remote control opened the door to its application in many other fields, including finance. However, there has not been an updated and comprehensive literature review on the uses of fuzzy logic in the financial field. For that reason, this study attempts to critically examine fuzzy logic as an effective, useful method to be applied to financial research and, particularly, to the management of banking crises. The data sources were Web of Science and Scopus, followed by an assessment of the records according to pre-established criteria and an arrangement of the information in two main axes: financial markets and corporate finance. A major finding of this analysis is that fuzzy logic has not yet been used to address banking crises or as an alternative to ensure the resolvability of banks while minimizing the impact on the real economy. Therefore, we consider this article relevant for supervisory and regulatory bodies, as well as for banks and academic researchers, since it opens the door to several new research axes on banking crisis analyses using artificial intelligence techniques.

Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Surface Enhanced Raman Spectra of Human Serum for Alzheimer’s Disease Diagnosis

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most common form of dementia worldwide and is characterized by progressive cognitive decline. Along with being incurable and lethal, AD is difficult to diagnose with high levels of accuracy. Blood serum from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients was analyzed by surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) coupled with multivariate statistical analysis. The obtained spectra were compared with spectra from healthy controls (HC) to develop a simple test for AD detection. Serum spectra from AD patients were further compared to spectra from patients with other neurodegenerative dementias (OD). Colloidal silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) were used as the SERS-active substrates. Classification experiments involving serum SERS spectra using artificial neural networks (ANNs) achieved a diagnostic sensitivity around 96% for differentiating AD samples from HC samples in a binary model and 98% for differentiating AD, HC, and OD samples in a tertiary model. The results from this proof-of-concept study demonstrate the great potential of SERS blood serum analysis to be developed further into a novel clinical assay for the effective and accurate diagnosis of AD.

Knowledge management performance evaluation: a decade review from 1995 to 2004

In this paper, the development of knowledge management (KM) was surveyed, using a literature review and classification of articles from 1995 to 2004. With a keyword index and article abstract, we explored how KM performance evaluation has developed during this period. Based on a scope of 108 articles from 80 academic KM journals (retrieved from six online databases), we surveyed and classified methods of KM measurement, using the following eight categories: qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, financial indicator analysis, non-financial indicator analysis, internal performance analysis, external performance analysis, project-orientated analysis and organizationorientated analysis, together with their measurement matrices for different research and problem domains. Future development directions for KM performance evaluation are presented in our discussion. They include: (1) KM performance measurements have tended towards expertise orientation, while evaluation development is a problemorientated domain; (2) different information technology methodologies, such as expert systems, knowledge-based systems and case-based reasoning may be able to evaluate KM as simply another methodology; (3) the ability to continually change and obtain new understanding is the driving power behind KM methodologies, and should be the basis of KM performance evaluations in the future.

Self-adaptive MOEA feature selection for classification of bankruptcy prediction data

Bankruptcy prediction is a vast area of finance and accounting whose importance lies in the relevance for creditors and investors in evaluating the likelihood of getting into bankrupt. As companies become complex, they develop sophisticated schemes to hide their real situation. In turn, making an estimation of the credit risks associated with counterparts or predicting bankruptcy becomes harder. Evolutionary algorithms have shown to be an excellent tool to deal with complex problems in finances and economics where a large number of irrelevant features are involved. This paper provides a methodology for feature selection in classification of bankruptcy data sets using an evolutionary multiobjective approach that simultaneously minimise the number of features and maximise the classifier quality measure (e.g., accuracy). The proposed methodology makes use of self-adaptation by applying the feature selection algorithm while simultaneously optimising the parameters of the classifier used. The methodology was applied to four different sets of data. The obtained results showed the utility of using the self-adaptation of the classifier.

FUZZY BRIDGED REFINEMENT DOMAIN ADAPTATION: LONG-TERM BANK FAILURE PREDICTION

Machine learning methods, such as neural network (NN) and support vector machine, assume that the training data and the test data are drawn from the same distribution. This assumption may not be satisfied in many real world applications, like long-term financial failure prediction, because the training and test data may each come from different time periods or domains. This paper proposes a novel algorithm known as fuzzy bridged refinement-based domain adaptation to solve the problem of long-term prediction. The algorithm utilizes the fuzzy system and similarity concepts to modify the target instances' labels which were initially predicted by a shift-unaware prediction model. The experiments are performed using three shift-unaware prediction models based on nine different settings including two main situations: (1) there is no labeled instance in the target domain; (2) there are a few labeled instances in the target domain. In these experiments bank failure financial data is used to validate the algorithm. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in the predictive accuracy, particularly in the second situation identified above.

LEARNING TO PREDICT HUMANOID FALL

Falls are undesirable in humanoid robots, but also inevitable, especially as robots get deployed in physically interactive human environments. We consider the problem of fall prediction: to predict if the balance controller of a robot can prevent a fall from the robot's current state. A trigger from the fall predictor is used to switch the robot from a balance maintenance mode to a fall control mode. It is desirable for the fall predictor to signal imminent falls with sufficient lead time before the actual fall, while minimizing false alarms. Analytical techniques and intuitive rules fail to satisfy these competing objectives on a large robot that is subjected to strong disturbances and exhibits complex dynamics. We contribute a novel approach to engineer fall data such that existing supervised learning methods can be exploited to achieve reliable prediction. Our method provides parameters to control the tradeoff between the false positive rate and the lead time. Several combinations of parameters yield solutions that improve both the false positive rate and the lead time of hand-coded solutions. Learned solutions are decision lists with typical depths of 5–10, in a 16-dimensional feature space. Experiments are carried out in simulation on an ASIMO-like robot.

Financial volatility trading using a self-organising neural-fuzzy semantic network and option straddle-based approach

Financial volatility refers to the intensity of the fluctuations in the expected return on an investment or the pricing of a financial asset due to market uncertainties. Hence, volatility modeling and forecasting is imperative to financial market investors, as such projections allow the investors to adjust their trading strategies in anticipation of the impending financial market movements. Following this, financial volatility trading is the capitalization of the uncertainties of the financial markets to realize investment profits in times of rising, falling and side-way market conditions. In this paper, an intelligent straddle trading system (framework) that consists of a volatility projection module (VPM) and a trade decision module (TDM) is proposed for financial volatility trading via the buying and selling of option straddles to help a human trader capitalizes on the underlying uncertainties of the Hong Kong stock market. Three different measures, namely: (1) the historical volatility (HV), (2) implied volatility (IV) and (3) model-based volatility (MV) of the Hang Seng Index (HSI) are employed to quantify the implicit volatility of the Hong Kong stock market. The TDM of the proposed straddle trading system combines the respective volatility measures with the well-established moving-averages convergence/divergence (MACD) principle to recommend trading actions to a human trader dealing in HSI straddles. However, the inherent limitation of the MACD trading rule is that it generates time-delayed trading signals due to the use of moving averages, which are essentially lagging trend indicators. This drawback is intuitively addressed in the proposed straddle trading system by applying the VPM to compute future projections of the volatility measures of the HSI prior to the activation of the TDM. The VPM is realized by a self-organising neural-fuzzy semantic network named the evolving fuzzy semantic memory (eFSM) model. As compared to existing statistical and computational intelligence based modeling techniques currently employed for financial volatility modeling and forecasting, eFSM possesses several desirable attributes such as: (1) an evolvable knowledge base to continuously address the non-stationary characteristics of the Hong Kong stock market; (2) highly formalized human-like information computations; and (3) a transparent structure that can be interpreted via a set of linguistic IF-THEN semantic fuzzy rules. These qualities provide added credence to the computed HSI volatility projections. The volatility modeling and forecasting performances of the eFSM, when benchmarked to several established modeling techniques, as well as the observed trading returns of the proposed straddle trading system, are encouraging.

PSECMAC intelligent insulin schedule for diabetic blood glucose management under nonmeal announcement

Therapeutically, the closed-loop blood glucose-insulin regulation paradigm via a controllable insulin pump offers a potential solution to the management of diabetes. However, the development of such a closed-loop regulatory system to date has been hampered by two main issues: 1) the limited knowledge on the complex human physiological process of glucose-insulin metabolism that prevents a precise modeling of the biological blood glucose control loop; and 2) the vast metabolic biodiversity of the diabetic population due to varying exogneous and endogenous disturbances such as food intake, exercise, stress, and hormonal factors, etc. In addition, current attempts of closed-loop glucose regulatory techniques generally require some form of prior meal announcement and this constitutes a severe limitation to the applicability of such systems. In this paper, we present a novel intelligent insulin schedule based on the pseudo self-evolving cerebellar model articulation controller (PSECMAC) associative learning memory model that emulates the healthy human insulin response to food ingestion. The proposed PSECMAC intelligent insulin schedule requires no prior meal announcement and delivers the necessary insulin dosage based only on the observed blood glucose fluctuations. Using a simulated healthy subject, the proposed PSECMAC insulin schedule is demonstrated to be able to accurately capture the complex human glucose-insulin dynamics and robustly addresses the intraperson metabolic variability. Subsequently, the PSECMAC intelligent insulin schedule is employed on a group of type-1 diabetic patients to regulate their impaired blood glucose levels. Preliminary simulation results are highly encouraging. The work reported in this paper represents a major paradigm shift in the management of diabetes where patient compliance is poor and the need for prior meal announcement under current treatment regimes poses a significant challenge to an active lifestyle.

An introduction to artificial neural networks in bioinformatics--application to complex microarray and mass spectrometry datasets in cancer studies

Applications of genomic and proteomic technologies have seen a major increase, resulting in an explosion in the amount of highly dimensional and complex data being generated. Subsequently this has increased the effort by the bioinformatics community to develop novel computational approaches that allow for meaningful information to be extracted. This information must be of biological relevance and thus correlate to disease phenotypes of interest. Artificial neural networks are a form of machine learning from the field of artificial intelligence with proven pattern recognition capabilities and have been utilized in many areas of bioinformatics. This is due to their ability to cope with highly dimensional complex datasets such as those developed by protein mass spectrometry and DNA microarray experiments. As such, neural networks have been applied to problems such as disease classification and identification of biomarkers. This review introduces and describes the concepts related to neural networks, the advantages and caveats to their use, examples of their applications in mass spectrometry and microarray research (with a particular focus on cancer studies), and illustrations from recent literature showing where neural networks have performed well in comparison to other machine learning methods. This should form the necessary background knowledge and information enabling researchers with an interest in these methodologies, but not necessarily from a machine learning background, to apply the concepts to their own datasets, thus maximizing the information gain from these complex biological systems.

PSECMAC: a novel self-organizing multiresolution associative memory architecture

The cerebellum constitutes a vital part of the human brain system that possesses the capability to model highly nonlinear physical dynamics. The cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) associative memory network is a computational model inspired by the neurophysiological properties of the cerebellum, and it has been widely used for control, optimization, and various pattern recognition tasks. However, the CMAC network's highly regularized computing structure often leads to the following: 1) a suboptimal modeling accuracy, 2) poor memory utilization, and 3) the generalization-accuracy dilemma. Previous attempts to address these shortcomings have limited success and the proposed solutions often introduce a high operational complexity to the CMAC network. This paper presents a novel neurophysiologically inspired associative memory architecture named pseudo-self-evolving CMAC (PSECMAC) that nonuniformly allocates its computing cells to overcome the architectural deficiencies encountered by the CMAC network. The nonuniform memory allocation scheme employed by the proposed PSECMAC network is inspired by the cerebellar experience-driven synaptic plasticity phenomenon observed in the cerebellum, where significantly higher densities of synaptic connections are located in the frequently accessed regions. In the PSECMAC network, this biological synaptic plasticity phenomenon is emulated by employing a data-driven adaptive memory quantization scheme that defines its computing structure. A neighborhood-based activation process is subsequently implemented to facilitate the learning and computation of the PSECMAC structure. The training stability of the PSECMAC network is theoretically assured by the proof of its learning convergence, which will be presented in this paper. The performance of the proposed network is subsequently benchmarked against the CMAC network and several representative CMAC variants on three real-life applications, namely, pricing of currency futures option, banking failure classification, and modeling of the glucose-insulin dynamics of the human glucose metabolic process. The experimental results have strongly demonstrated the effectiveness of the PSECMAC network in addressing the architectural deficiencies of the CMAC network by achieving significant improvements in the memory utilization, output accuracy as well as the generalization capability of the network.

Hierarchically clustered adaptive quantization CMAC and its learning convergence

The cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) neural network (NN) is a well-established computational model of the human cerebellum. Nevertheless, there are two major drawbacks associated with the uniform quantization scheme of the CMAC network. They are the following: (1) a constant output resolution associated with the entire input space and (2) the generalization-accuracy dilemma. Moreover, the size of the CMAC network is an exponential function of the number of inputs. Depending on the characteristics of the training data, only a small percentage of the entire set of CMAC memory cells is utilized. Therefore, the efficient utilization of the CMAC memory is a crucial issue. One approach is to quantize the input space nonuniformly. For existing nonuniformly quantized CMAC systems, there is a tradeoff between memory efficiency and computational complexity. Inspired by the underlying organizational mechanism of the human brain, this paper presents a novel CMAC architecture named hierarchically clustered adaptive quantization CMAC (HCAQ-CMAC). HCAQ-CMAC employs hierarchical clustering for the nonuniform quantization of the input space to identify significant input segments and subsequently allocating more memory cells to these regions. The stability of the HCAQ-CMAC network is theoretically guaranteed by the proof of its learning convergence. The performance of the proposed network is subsequently benchmarked against the original CMAC network, as well as two other existing CMAC variants on two real-life applications, namely, automated control of car maneuver and modeling of the human blood glucose dynamics. The experimental results have demonstrated that the HCAQ-CMAC network offers an efficient memory allocation scheme and improves the generalization and accuracy of the network output to achieve better or comparable performances with smaller memory usages. Index Terms-Cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC), hierarchical clustering, hierarchically clustered adaptive quantization CMAC (HCAQ-CMAC), learning convergence, nonuniform quantization.

MCES: A Novel Monte Carlo Evaluative Selection Approach for Objective Feature Selections

Most recent research efforts on feature selection have focused mainly on classification task due to its popularity in the data-mining community. However, feature selection research in nonlinear system estimations has been very limited. Hence, it is reasonable to devise a feature selection approach that is computationally efficient on nonlinear system estimations context. A novel feature selection approach, the Monte Carlo evaluative selection (MCES), is proposed in this paper. MCES is an objective sampling method that derives a better estimation of the relevancy measure. The algorithm is objectively designed to be applicable to both classification and nonlinear regressive tasks. The MCES method has been demonstrated to perform well with four sets of experiments, consisting of two classification and two regressive tasks. The results demonstrate that the MCES method has following strong advantages: 1) ability to identify correlated and irrelevant features based on weight ranking, 2) application to both nonlinear system estimation and classification tasks, and 3) independence of the underlying induction algorithms used to derive the performance measures.

FCMAC-Yager: A Novel Yager-Inference-Scheme-Based Fuzzy CMAC

The cerebellum is a brain region important for a number of motor and cognitive functions. It is able to generate error correction signals to drive learning and for the acquisition of memory skills. The cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) is a neural network inspired by the neurophysiologic theory of the cerebellum and is recognized for its localized generalization and rapid algorithmic computation capabilities. The main deficiencies in the basic CMAC structure are: (1) it is difficult to interpret the internal operations of the CMAC network and (2) the resolution (quantization) problem arising from the partitioning of the input training space. These limitations lead to the synthesis of a fuzzy quantization technique and the mapping of a fuzzy inference scheme onto the CMAC structure. The discrete incremental clustering (DIC) technique is employed to alleviate the quantization problem in the CMAC structure, resulting in the fuzzy CMAC (FCMAC) network. The Yager inference scheme (Yager), which possesses firm fuzzy logic foundation and maps closely to the logical implication operations in the classical (binary) logic framework, is subsequently mapped onto the FCMAC structure. This results in a novel fuzzy neural architecture known as thefuzzy cerebellar model articulation controller-Yager (FCMAC-Yager) system. The proposed FCMAC-Yager network exhibits learning and memory capabilities of the cerebellum through the CMAC structure while emulating the human way of reasoning through the Yager. The new FCMAC-Yager network employs a two-phase training algorithm consisting of structural learning based on the DIC technique and parameter learning using hebbian learning (associative long-term potentiation). The proposed FCMAC-Yager architecture is evaluated using an extensive suite of real-life applications such as highway traffic-trend modeling and prediction and performing as an early warning system for bank failure classification and medical diagnosis of breast cancer. The experimental results are encouraging.

FCMAC-BYY: Fuzzy CMAC Using Bayesian Ying–Yang Learning

As an associative memory neural network model, the cerebellar model articulation controller (CMAC) has attractive properties of fast learning and simple computation, but its rigid structure makes it difficult to approximate certain functions. This research attempts to construct a novel neural fuzzy CMAC, in which Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) learning is introduced to determine the optimal fuzzy sets, and a truth-value restriction inference scheme is subsequently employed to derive the truth values of the rule weights of implication rules. The BYY is motivated from the famous Chinese ancient Ying-Yang philosophy: everything in the universe can be viewed as a product of a constant conflict between opposites-Ying and Yang, a perfect status is reached when Ying and Yang achieve harmony. The proposed fuzzy CMAC (FCMAC)-BYY enjoys the following advantages. First, it has a higher generalization ability because the fuzzy rule sets are systematically optimized by BYY; second, it reduces the memory requirement of the network by a significant degree as compared to the original CMAC; and third, it provides an intuitive fuzzy logic reasoning and has clear semantic meanings. The experimental results on some benchmark datasets show that the proposed FCMAC-BYY outperforms the existing representative techniques in the research literature.

GenSo-FDSS: a neural-fuzzy decision support system for pediatric ALL cancer subtype identification using gene expression data

OBJECTIVE

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the most common malignancy of childhood, representing nearly one third of all pediatric cancers. Currently, the treatment of pediatric ALL is centered on tailoring the intensity of the therapy applied to a patient's risk of relapse, which is linked to the type of leukemia the patient has. Hence, accurate and correct diagnosis of the various leukemia subtypes becomes an important first step in the treatment process. Recently, gene expression profiling using DNA microarrays has been shown to be a viable and accurate diagnostic tool to identify the known prognostically important ALL subtypes. Thus, there is currently a huge interest in developing autonomous classification systems for cancer diagnosis using gene expression data. This is to achieve an unbiased analysis of the data and also partly to handle the large amount of genetic information extracted from the DNA microarrays.

METHODOLOGY

Generally, existing medical decision support systems (DSS) for cancer classification and diagnosis are based on traditional statistical methods such as Bayesian decision theory and machine learning models such as neural networks (NN) and support vector machine (SVM). Though high accuracies have been reported for these systems, they fall short on certain critical areas. These included (a) being able to present the extracted knowledge and explain the computed solutions to the users; (b) having a logical deduction process that is similar and intuitive to the human reasoning process; and (c) flexible enough to incorporate new knowledge without running the risk of eroding old but valid information. On the other hand, a neural fuzzy system, which is synthesized to emulate the human ability to learn and reason in the presence of imprecise and incomplete information, has the ability to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings. However, existing neural fuzzy systems have their own limitations when used in the design and implementation of DSS. Hence, this paper proposed the use of a novel neural fuzzy system: the generic self-organising fuzzy neural network (GenSoFNN) with truth-value restriction (TVR) fuzzy inference, as a fuzzy DSS (denoted as GenSo-FDSS) for the classification of ALL subtypes using gene expression data.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The performance of the GenSo-FDSS system is encouraging when benchmarked against those of NN, SVM and the K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) classifier. On average, a classification rate of above 90% has been achieved using the GenSo-FDSS system.