Neck circumference for predicting the occurrence of future cardiovascular events: A 7.6-year longitudinal study

Neck circumference, waist-to-height ratio, Chinese visceral adiposity index and incident heart failure

BACKGROUND

The indicators of abdominal obesity have shown to be associated with a high risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), even adjusted for body mass index (BMI). We aimed to investigate the association between neck circumference, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI) and incident heart failure (HF) in Chinese adults.

METHODS

The current study included 86,546 participants from two independent cohorts: the Kailuan I study established in 2006 and the Kailuan study II established in 2008. Participants aged 18-80 years who were free of CVDs or cancer were recruited at baseline. The values of neck circumference, WHtR and CVAI were available in 2014. The trajectory analysis was conducted using repeated measures of WHtR and CVAI in the 2008, 2010, 2012 and 2014 surveys. The incident HF cases were identified via reviewing medical records by cardiologists.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 5.62 years, 724 incident HF cases were documented. The highest quartiles of neck circumference, WHtR and CVAI respectively, were significantly associated with a high risk of HF compared to the lowest quartiles of adiposity measures (neck circumference: HR:1.30, 95%CI: 1.03-1.65; WHtR: HR:1.49, 95%CI: 1.16-1.92; and CVAI: HR:1.98, 95%CI: 1.48-2.65). The combination of adiposity measures with BMI or metabolic abnormalities jointly predicted incident HF. Presence of hypertension and diabetes appeared to be the major mediators, accounting for ∼ 8.11-24.7% of the associations between three indicators of abdominal obesity and HF risk.

CONCLUSION

The new indices of abdominal adiposity could help to identify those who were at a high risk of HF, especially in the presence of high BMI or metabolic abnormalities.

Neck circumference as a predictor of all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older adults in rural Ecuador

BACKGROUND

Neck circumference (NC) has been associated with mortality secondary to cardiovascular diseases and other conditions. However, information on this association in the population at large is limited. We aimed to assess this association in community dwellers living in rural Ecuador.

METHODS

Individuals aged ≥40 y who were enrolled in the population-based Three Villages Study cohort were prospectively followed to estimate mortality risk according to baseline measurements of NC, after adjusting for relevant confounders.

RESULTS

Analysis included 1521 individuals followed for a mean of 6.4±3.4 y. Mean NC was 36.2±3.7 cm, with 509 (33%) individuals allocated to the first (25-34 cm), 319 (21%) to the second (36-37 cm), 417 (27%) to the third (37-39 cm) and 276 (18%) to the fourth (40-50 cm) quartile. A total of 211 (14%) individuals died during the follow-up. Overall, the crude mortality rate was 2.3 per 100 person-years, which increased to 5.63 for those in the fourth NC quartile. An adjusted Cox-proportional hazards model showed that individuals in the fourth quartile of NC had higher mortality risk compared with the first quartile (HR: 2.98; 95% CI 1.77 to 5.02).

CONCLUSION

Larger NC increases mortality risk in middle-aged and older adults of indigenous ancestry living in rural Ecuador.

The association between physical activity and neck circumference with cardiovascular disease risk in older wheelchair users

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between physical activity, neck circumference, and cardiovascular disease risk in older wheelchair users.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study.

SUBJECTS/PATIENTS

Sixty-one Korean wheelchair users aged 50 years and older.

METHODS

Physical activity was assessed using a self-administered questionnaire. Neck circumference was measured with a tape ruler. Cardiovascular disease risk was evaluated by calculating the Framingham risk score (FRS) for estimating 10-year cardiovascular disease risk, which was classified as low-moderate (19% or less) or high risk (20% or more).

RESULTS

The FRS for 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was inversely related to physical activity (beta [SE] = -0.213 (0.103), p = 0.043) and positively related to neck circumference (beta [SE] = 1.331 ± 0.419, p = 0.003). Binary logistic regression showed that those with low physical activity (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 4.256 (1.188~15.243), p = 0.026) or a large neck circumference (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 3.645 (1.172~11.338), p = 0.025) had a higher risk for high cardiovascular disease risk compared with those with high physical activity or normal neck circumference.

CONCLUSION

The current study findings suggest that an intervention targeting physical inactivity and upper-body obesity should be implemented to reduce cardiovascular disease risk in older wheelchair users.

Neck circumference as an additional predictor of cardiovascular disease mortality: A multi-center prospective population-based study in northeastern China

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to assess the potential of neck circumference (NC) and neck-to-height ratio (NHR) as predictors of future cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in a general population from Northeastern China.

METHODS

A multi-center prospective study was conducted in Northeastern China, involving 18, 796 participants. The associations between NC or NHR and the incidence of overall CVD mortality, stroke mortality, and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality were examined using multivariate Cox regression models. Hazard ratios (HRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Reclassification analyses were conducted to determine the incremental predictive value of NC or NHR.

RESULTS

NC was significantly associated with the risk of CVD mortality, independent of other anthropometric measurements for obesity. Individuals in the highest quartile of NC had a 1.83-fold (95% CI 1.29 to 2.61) and a 2.40-fold (95% CI 1.45 to 4.00) higher risk of overall CVD mortality and CHD mortality, respectively. Larger NC was significantly related to a heightened risk of ischemic stroke mortality, although no such association was observed with hemorrhagic stroke mortality. Furthermore, the risk of overall CVD mortality, stroke mortality, and CHD mortality increased by approximately 1.21 to 1.25 times per 1-SD change in NC. Similar findings were observed for NHR. The percentages of correct classification of overall CVD mortality improved by 12.1% and 16.3% after the addition of NC or NHR into established models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

NC and NHR might be promising predictors of CVD mortality, with higher values indicating greater risk.

Hypertension prevalence in Iran's elderly according to new criteria: the Tehran Geriatric Eye Study

Purpose

To determine the prevalence of hypertension in a population above 60 years of age and its relationship with demographic and anthropometric factors.

Methods

A cross-sectional population-based study was conducted in 2019. Using a multistage random cluster sampling, 160 clusters were selected from 22 districts of Tehran. All participants were interviewed to collect demographic, anthropometric, and socioeconomic information. Then, systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressures were measured under standard conditions twice, 10 min apart. A third measurement was performed if the two measurements showed a difference of ≥ 10 mmHg in SBP or ≥ 5 mmHg in DBP. Hypertension was defined as a SBP > 130 mmHg or a DBP > 80 mmHg (new criteria), being a known case of hypertension, or use of blood pressure lowering medications.

Results

Of 3791 invitees, 3310 participated in the study (87.3%). The mean age of the participants was 68.25 ± 6.54 years (60-97 years). The prevalence of hypertension was 81.08% (95% CI: 79.57-82.59) in the whole sample; 82.96% (95% CI: 81.02-84.91) in females, and 79.15% (95% CI: 76.6 -81.69) in males. The prevalence of hypertension ranged from 75.47% (95% CI: 72.65-78.29) in the age group 60-64 years to 88.40% (95% CI: 83.71-93.08) in the age group ≥ 80 years. The prevalence of hypertension unawareness was 32.84% (95% CI: 30.82-34.86). The highest and lowest prevalence of hypertension was seen in illiterate subjects (89.41%) and those with a university education (77.14%), respectively. According to the multiple logistic regression analysis, older age, lower education level, obesity and overweight, neck circumference, and diabetes were significantly associated with the prevalence of hypertension.

Conclusion

A significant percentage of Iranian elderly have hypertension and one of every 3 affected individuals is unaware of their disease. Considering the population aging in Iran, urgent and special attention should be paid to the elderly population. Caring for the elderly, informing families, and using non-traditional screening methods are recommended by families at the first level and policymakers at the macro level.

Low total osteocalcin levels are associated with the risk of cardiovascular events among women with hyperglycaemia: a 7.6-year prospective study

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between circulating osteocalcin and incident cardiovascular diseases in a community-based cohort, and further assess whether the association differs by different glycemic stages.

METHODS

This cohort study included 1428 participants (626 men and 802 women) aged 50-80 years, without baseline cardiovascular diseases, and with osteocalcin data available. Circulating total osteocalcin levels were measured by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the relationship between osteocalcin levels and different glycemic stages with cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

At baseline, 437 participants were normoglycaemia and 991 participants were hyperglycaemia. Median circulating osteocalcin levels were 16.43 (13.34-20.19) and 21.66 (17.95-26.11) ng/mL in men and women, respectively. During a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, 144 cases of cardiovascular diseases occurred (10.1%). The risk of incident cardiovascular diseases linearly increased with a decrease in baseline osteocalcin quartiles (quartile 1 versus quartile 4: hazard ratio 2.44, 95% confidence interval 1.07-5.55) in women, while not in men (Pinteraction on sex = 0.028). Subgroup analyses showed that the association was more predominant in participants with baseline hyperglycaemia. Besides, the joint effect of baseline decreased osteocalcin levels and hyperglycaemia resulted in higher risks of future cardiovascular diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

Low baseline osteocalcin levels were associated with high risks of cardiovascular diseases in middle-aged and elderly women, which were more predominant among those with baseline hyperglycaemia.

Insight to the association among fibroblast growth factor 21, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiovascular outcomes: A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate whether there was a joint effect of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or interaction on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases based on a community-dwelling population.

METHODS

Serum FGF21 levels were determined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent method. NAFLD was diagnosed via ultrasonography. Multivariable-adjusted cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the joint effects of FGF21 and NAFLD on the major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE).

RESULTS

A total of 1194 participants were enrolled in the final analysis. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of MACE was 1.84 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-2.86) in participants with diagnosed NAFLD at baseline, compared with those without NAFLD at baseline. The multivariable-adjusted HRs of MACE across quintiles of serum FGF21 levels at baseline were 1.00, 1.48 (95%CI 0.68-3.21), 2.01 (95%CI 0.98-4.13), 1.94 (95%CI 0.94-4.02) and 2.14 (95%CI 1.03-4.44) respectively. Participants with high FGF21 levels and NAFLD at baseline showed the highest risk of MACE with a significant interaction between the presence of NAFLD and serum FGF21 levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Both FGF21 and NAFLD were associated with MACE, while the association between FGF21 and MACE may be interacted by the presence of NAFLD at baseline.

The Association and Joint Effect of Adipocyte Fatty Acid Binding Protein and Obesity Phenotype With Cardiovascular Events

CONTEXT

There is little evidence regarding the joint effect of serum adipocyte fatty acid binding protein (A-FABP) levels and obesity phenotype on the risk of cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the association between serum A-FABP levels and obesity phenotype defined by fat percentage (fat%) and visceral fat area (VFA), and their joint impact on incident cardiovascular events.

METHODS

A total of 1345 residents (579 men and 766 women) without previous cardiovascular diseases at baseline, with body composition and serum A-FABP data available, were included. A bioelectrical impedance analyzer and magnetic resonance imaging were used to assess fat% and VFA, respectively.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, 136 cases of cardiovascular events (13.9 per 1000 person-years) occurred. Per 1-unit increase in loge-transformed A-FABP levels was associated with an increase in cardiovascular events risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.87, 95% CI 1.33-2.63). The highest tertiles of fat% and VFA levels were related to higher risks of cardiovascular events (fat%: HR 2.38, 95% CI 1.49-3.81; VFA: HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.09-2.93). The association between A-FABP levels and cardiovascular events was more pronounced in participants with low fat%, regardless of VFA levels. The joint effect of high A-FABP levels and obesity resulted in a greater risk of cardiovascular events.

CONCLUSION

Serum A-FABP levels were significantly associated with the risk of cardiovascular events, and this pattern of association was more prominent among the population with low fat%, which was independent of VFA.

Contribution of low skeletal muscle mass in predicting cardiovascular events: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the association between skeletal muscle mass and cardiovascular events, and its additional value on the assessment of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) over traditional risk scores.

METHODS

The study included 1365 community-based participants aged over 50 years and free of CVDs at baseline. Participants completed detailed assessments at baseline and received a follow-up assessment in 2021-2022 via phone calls or electronic medical records. Skeletal muscle mass was measured using an automatic bioelectric analyzer. Predicted probabilities of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk were estimated individually with the China-PAR equation.

RESULTS

After a mean follow-up of 7.6 years, 144 cardiovascular events were identified. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of cardiovascular events were 0.93 (0.88-0.98) and 1.08 (1.04-1.12) for skeletal muscle mass and predicted 10-year risk, respectively. Among participants over 60 years and with two or more risk factors, cardiovascular events risk increased progressively with each decreasing skeletal muscle tertile. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the C-statistic of predicting cardiovascular events for a 10-year risk assessment was slightly increased after adding skeletal muscle mass. The categorical net reclassification improvement (NRI) showed a 56.7% increase in the reclassification. The continuous NRI and integrated discrimination improvement increased as well.

CONCLUSION

Participants with low skeletal muscle mass were more likely to have cardiovascular events. Low muscle mass improved the predictive power of CVD incidence over the original risk score, indicating that muscle mass could be a valuable parameter and a declining value needed early detection in the population.

Two-year changes in body composition and future cardiovascular events: a longitudinal community-based study

BACKGROUND

The risk of cardiovascular diseases has rapidly increased among middle-aged and elderly. However, little is known about the relationship of body composition changes with the risk of cardiovascular events among this population in China. We explored the associations of 2-year changes in fat percentage (fat%) and fat-free mass percentage (FFM%) with subsequent cardiovascular events in a middle-aged and elderly community-based cohort.

METHODS

This study included 1048 participants (456 men [43.51%], aged 50-80 years) without overt cardiovascular disease, who underwent two examinations during 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. All participants were followed up until 2022 for cardiovascular events. A bioelectrical impedance analyzer was used to calculate fat% and FFM% change.

RESULTS

At baseline, the median body mass index (BMI), fat%, and FFM% were 23.9 (22.1-25.9) kg/m2, 27.2 (20.8-33.6)%, and 72.8 (66.4-79.2)%, respectively. Two-year changes in fat% and FFM% were 0.31 (- 5.53 to 6.87)% and - 0.12 (- 2.36 to 2.06)%. During an average follow-up of 5.5 years, 86 cardiovascular events (8.21%) occurred. Cox regression models showed that hazard ratios (HRs) of every 2% change in fat% and FFM% for cardiovascular events were 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.07) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.95), respectively. Compared with participants with stable fat% (-2% ≤ ⊿fat% < 2%), those with fat% gain ≥ 2% had an increased risk of cardiovascular events (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.08-3.97). FFM% loss > 8% was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events (HR 3.83, 95% CI 1.29-11.4).

CONCLUSIONS

In a middle-aged and elderly community-based Chinese population, fat% gain or FFM% loss was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events.