Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting the benefit of concurrent chemotherapy in stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A study based on a phase III randomized clinical trial with 10-year follow-up

Outcome prediction models incorporating clinical variables for Head and Neck Squamous cell Carcinoma: A systematic review of methodological conduct and risk of bias

Multiple outcome prediction models have been developed for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC). This systematic review aimed to identify HNSCC outcome prediction model studies, assess their methodological quality and identify those with potential utility for clinical practice. Inclusion criteria were mucosal HNSCC prognostic prediction model studies (development or validation) incorporating clinically available variables accessible at time of treatment decision making and predicting tumour-related outcomes. Eligible publications were identified from PubMed and Embase. Methodological quality and risk of bias were assessed using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS) and prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Eligible publications were categorised by study type for reporting. 64 eligible publications were identified; 55 reported model development, 37 external validations, with 28 reporting both. CHARMS checklist items relating to participants, predictors, outcomes, handling of missing data, and some model development and evaluation procedures were generally well-reported. Less well-reported were measures accounting for model overfitting and model performance measures, especially model calibration. Full model information was poorly reported (3/55 model developments), specifically model intercept, baseline survival or full model code. Most publications (54/55 model developments, 28/37 external validations) were found to have high risk of bias, predominantly due to methodological issues in the PROBAST analysis domain. The identified methodological issues may affect prediction model accuracy in heterogeneous populations. Independent external validation studies in the local population and demonstration of clinical impact are essential for the clinical implementation of outcome prediction models.

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy versus radiotherapy alone for stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy

BACKGROUND

Concurrent chemoradiotherapy has long been a standardized therapy for localized advanced nasopharyngeal cancer. It is widely used in clinical applications. In contrast, NCCN guidelines highlight that the efficacy of concurrent chemoradiotherapy for stage II nasopharyngeal cancer in the new era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy has not been defined. Thus, we systematically reviewed the significance of concurrent chemoradiotherapy for stage II nasopharyngeal cancer.

METHODS

We searched the relevant literature in PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane, extracting relevant data from the searched literature. The main items extracted were hazard ratios (HRs), risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). When the HR could not be extracted from the literature, we used Engauge Digitizer software for extraction. Data analysis was accomplished using the Review Manager 5.4 tool.

RESULTS

Our study included seven articles involving 1633 cases of stage II nasopharyngeal cancer. The survival outcomes were overall survival (OS) (HR = 1.03, 95% CI (0.71-1.49), P = 0.87), progression-free survival (PFS) (HR = 0.91, 95% CI (0.59-1.39), P = 0.66), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (HR = 1.05, 95% CI (0.57-1.93), P = 0.87), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) (HR = 0.87, 95% CI (0.41-1.84), P = 0.71, P > 0.05), and locoregional failure-free survival (LFFS) (HR = 1.18, 95% CI (0.52-2.70), P = 0.69).

CONCLUSIONS

In the era of intensity-modulated radiotherapy, concurrent chemoradiotherapy and radiotherapy alone have the same survival benefits, and concurrent chemoradiotherapy increases acute hematological toxicity. Subgroup analysis showed that for people with N1 nasopharyngeal cancer at risk of distant metastases, concurrent chemoradiotherapy and radiotherapy alone also had equal survival benefits.

The role of radiologic extranodal extension in predicting prognosis and chemotherapy benefit for T1-2 N1 nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This multicenter retrospective study aimed to investigated the prognostic value of unequivocal radiologic extranodal extension (rENE) and the efficacy of chemotherapy for stage T1-2 N1 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the IMRT era.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included 1,082 patients treated in 2005-2017 from three centers. rENE was recorded as G1 (coalescent nodal mass comprising ≥ 2 inseparable nodes) or G2 (invading beyond perinodal fat to frankly infiltrate adjacent structures). Multivariable analysis (MVA) evaluated the prognostic value of rENE. The value of chemotherapy was assessed in rENE-positive (rENE + ) and rENE-negative (rENE - ) subset separately.

RESULTS

Centers 1, 2, and 3 had 139/515 (27.0 %), 100/365 (27.4 %), and 43/202 (21.3 %) cN + patients with rENE, respectively. Compared to rENE-, rENE + patients had a worse distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) (all p < 0.001). MVA confirmed the prognostic of both G1-rENE and G2-rENE for distant metastasis [G1: hazard ratio (HR): 2.933, G2: HR: 6.942, all p < 0.001] and death (G1: HR: 1.587, p = 0.040; G2: HR: 6.162, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference for DMFS and OS between chemo-radiotherapy and radiotherapy alone in rENE + and rENE - groups (all p > 0.1). However, rENE + patients with a cumulative cisplatin/nedaplatin dose (CCND) of > 160 mg/m² had an improved DMFS (p = 0.033) but no OS (p = 0.197).

CONCLUSION

Unequivocal rENE is prognostic in patients with T1-2 N1 NPC. Addition of chemotherapy to radiotherapy did not affect DMFS and OS in rENE - patients. Chemotherapy with a CCND of > 160 mg/m² improved DMFS in rENE + patients.

MRI-identified multidimensional nodal features predict survival and concurrent chemotherapy benefit for stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Reliable predictors are urgently needed to identify stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients who could benefit from concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). We aimed to develop a nomogram integrating MRI-identified multidimensional features of lymph nodes to predict survival and assist the decision-making of CCRT for stage II NPC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 242 stage II NPC patients treated from January 2007 to December 2017. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. Performance of nomogram was evaluated using calibration curves, Harrell Concordance Index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC) and decision curves analysis (DCA) and was compared with TNM staging. According to the individualized nomogram score, patients were classified into two risk cohorts and therapeutic efficacy of CCRT were evaluated in each cohort.

RESULTS

Three independent prognostic factors for OS: age, number and location of positive lymph nodes were included into the final nomogram. T stage was also incorporated due to its importance in clinical decision-making. Calibration plots demonstrated a good match between the predicted and our observed OS rates. C-index for nomogram was 0.726 compared with 0.537 for TNM staging (p < 0.001). DCAs confirmed the superior clinical utility of nomograms compared with TNM staging. CCRT compared to intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) delivered OS benefit to patients in the high-risk group (5-year: 89.9% vs. 72.1%; 10-year: 72.5% vs. 34.2%, p = 0.011), but not in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

This lymph node features-based nomogram demonstrated excellent discrimination and predictive accuracy for stage II patients and could identify patients who can benefit from CCRT.

Nomogram for distant metastasis-free survival in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram to predict distant metastasis-free survival of patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

METHODS

We collected the total clinical data of 820 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, of whom 482 formed the training cohort from one hospital and 328 made up the validation cohort from another hospital. By analyzing the prognosis of all patients after intensity-modulated radiotherapy by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, a nomogram related to DMFS was created in the training cohort. The discriminatory and calibration power of the nomogram was successively assessed in the training and validation cohorts by the C‑index and calibration curve. The predictive ability for 3‑year DMFS was compared between the nomogram and TNM stage using ROC curves. Patients were divided into different risk groups based on scores calculated from the nomogram.

RESULTS

Age, lymph node gross tumor volume (GTVnd), and gross tumor volume of the nasopharynx (GTVnx) were the factors included in the nomogram. The C‑index of the nomogram was 0.721 in the training cohort and 0.750 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves were satisfactory. Patients in the high-risk group were more likely to develop metastases.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram incorporating age, GTVnd, and GTVnx showed good performance for predicting DMFS in patients with locoregionally advanced NPC.

External Validation of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Concurrent Chemoradiation for Stage II Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Simple Summary

The optimal treatment strategy (concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy alone) for stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era is controversial across guidelines. A nomogram by Sun et al. was published to predict the overall survival (OS) benefit of CCRT based on a patient’s clinical parameters. Using the cohort from the Hong Kong NPC1301 study, we evaluated the external validity of the nomogram and the associations between the proposed clinical factors and OS among stage II NPC patients. Use of CCRT was an insignificant predictor for OS. The nomogram lacked the predictive accuracy and should be interpreted with caution.

Abstract

A nomogram was recently published by Sun et al. to predict overall survival (OS) and the additional benefit of concurrent chemoradiation (CCRT) vs. radiotherapy (RT) alone, in stage II NPC treated with conventional RT. We aimed to assess the predictors of OS and to externally validate the nomogram in the IMRT era. We analyzed stage II NPC patients treated with definitive RT alone or CCRT between 2001 and 2011 under the territory-wide Hong Kong NPC Study Group 1301 study. Clinical parameters were studied using the Cox proportional hazards model to estimate OS. The nomogram by Sun et al. was applied with 1000 times bootstrap resampling to calculate the concordance index, and we compared the nomogram predicted and observed 5-year OS. There were 482 patients included. The 5-year OS was 89.0%. In the multivariable analysis, an age > 45 years was the only significant predictor of OS (HR, 1.98; 95%CI, 1.15–3.44). Other clinical parameters were insignificant, including the use of CCRT (HR, 0.99; 95%CI, 0.62–1.58). The nomogram yielded a concordance index of 0.55 (95% CI, 0.49–0.62) which lacked clinically meaningful discriminative power. The nomogram proposed by Sun et al. should be interpreted with caution when applied to stage II NPC patients in the IMRT era. The benefit of CCRT remained controversial.

Establishment and Validation of Nomogram Based on Combination of Pretreatment C-Reactive Protein/Albumin Ratio-EBV DNA Grade in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients Who Received Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

A higher ratio of pretreatment C-reactive protein/albumin ratio (CAR) is associated with poor prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA level is known to not only participate in the occurrence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma but also affect the development and prognosis of the disease. Herein, we proposed that a combination of both these markers could improve the predictive prognostic ability.

METHODS

In all, 842 NPC patients who received concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) were entered in this study. We collected all patients' blood samples and EBV DNA copy numbers within one week before any treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off. We employed the Kaplan-Meier method for survival analyses and the univariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazards regression model) for statistical analysis. A nomogram was constructed based on multivariate analyses results of the validation set. The model was internally validated using 1000 bootstrap samples to avoid overfitting. Another validation of 10-fold cross-validation was also applied. Calibration curves and concordance index (C-index) were calculated to determine predictive and discriminatory capacity.

RESULTS

In the whole cohort, we observed that higher CAR, EBV DNA level, and CAR-EBV DNA (C-E) grade were associated with shorter overall survival (OS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) (all P<0.05). In univariate and multivariate analyses, C-E grade was an independent prognostic factor (all P<0.05). In the training set, we gained the similar results with the whole set. According to multivariate analyses of the training set, we constructed a nomogram. The results of bootstrap samples and 10-fold cross-validation showed favorable predictive efficacy. And calibration curves of the model provided credibility to its predictive capability.

CONCLUSION

C-E grade was confirmed as an independent prognostic predictor in patients with NPC who received CCRT. Higher level of pretreatment C-E grade could signify a higher risk of metastasis and shorter OS. The prognostic nomogram based on C-E grade was dependable in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients.

Benefit of chemotherapy in stage III nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Analysis of the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database

OBJECTIVES

Chemoradiotherapy is the standard treatment for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). We aimed to reveal factors associated with chemotherapy use and evaluate chemotherapy's benefit in patients with stage III NPC stratified by lymph node status.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Overall, 1452 patients with stage III NPC who underwent radiotherapy with (n = 1361) or without (n = 91) chemotherapy were identified in the SEER database. We examined predictors for chemotherapy use using logistic regression analysis. We compared all-cause mortality (ACM) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used to evaluate the benefit of chemotherapy. The inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach was applied to reduce selection bias and adjust for competing risks. Subgroup analyses and interaction effects were explored.

RESULTS

Factors including age, sex, insured status, tumor grade, and N category were associated with chemotherapy use. Chemotherapy was associated with decreased 5-year ACM (31.4% vs. 48.4%, p < 0.001) and CSM (25.5% vs. 35.8%; p = 0.017) in stage III NPC patients. The IPTW-adjusted hazard ratio for 5-year ACM was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.38-0.86, p = 0.008), whereas IPTW-adjusted sub-hazard ratio for 5-year CSM was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.42-0.93, p = 0.003). A significant interaction effect existed between lymph node status and treatment modality. Chemotherapy offered a significant survival benefit in node-positive stage III NPC. However, no chemotherapy benefit for the node-negative disease was observed.

CONCLUSION

Chemotherapy adds survival benefit in stage III NPC, especially in patients with node-positive disease. The magnitude of chemotherapy benefit in node-negative stage III NPC warrants further investigation.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for the pre-treatment prediction of early metachronous metastasis in endemic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a big-data intelligence platform-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Early failure of cancer treatment generally indicates a poor prognosis. Here, we aim to develop and validate a pre-treatment nomogram to predict early metachronous metastasis (EMM) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS

From 2009 to 2015, a total of 9461 patients with NPC (training cohort: n = 7096; validation cohort: n = 2365) were identified from an institutional big-data research platform. EMM was defined as time to metastasis within 2 years after treatment. Early metachronous distant metastasis-free survival (EM-DMFS) was the primary endpoint. A nomogram was established with the significant prognostic factors for EM-DMFS determined by multivariate Cox regression analyses in the training cohort. The Harrell Concordance Index (C-index), area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration curves were applied to evaluate this model.

RESULTS

EMM account for 73.5% of the total metachronous metastasis rate and is associated with poor long-term survival in NPC. The final nomogram, which included six clinical variables, achieved satisfactory discriminative performance and significantly outperformed the traditional tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification for predicting EM-DMFS: C-index: 0.721 versus 0.638, p < 0.001; AUC: 0.730 versus 0.644, p < 0.001. The calibration curves showed excellent agreement between the predicted and actual EM-DMFS. The nomogram can stratify patients into three risk groups with distinct EM-DMFS (2-year DMFS: 96.8% versus 90.1% versus 80.3%, p < 0.001). A validation cohort supported the results. The three identified risk groups are correlated with the efficacy of different treatment regimens.

CONCLUSION

Our established nomogram can reliably predict EMM in patients with NPC and might aid in formulating risk-adapted treatment decisions and personalized patient follow-up strategies.