Geographic Atrophy Growth Is Strongly Related to Lesion Perimeter: Unifying Effects of Lesion Area, Number, and Circularity on Growth

Geographic atrophy progression secondary to age-related macular degeneration: Five years of follow-up

PurposeTo study the progression of geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to age-related macular degeneration over a five-year follow-up.MethodsEyes with GA included to assess demographic data, yearly optical coherence tomography (OCT) findings and the GA growth rate on infra-red (IR) images.ResultsA total of 41 eyes of 29 patients were included with a mean age of 81.76 ± 6.37 at baseline, and 65.51% were females. Over five years, there was a significant increase in the mean GA area from 8.44 ± 8.98 mm² to 13.32 ± 10.07 mm² (P < 0.001), with an annual growth rate of 1.14 ± 0.78 mm². The annual growth rates in females were slightly higher compared to males (1.29 ± 0.89 mm2 vs 0.96 ± 0.49 mm2, p = 0.569), and in smokers was slightly higher than non-smokers (1.35 ± 0.85 mm2 vs 0.94 ± 0.66 mm2, p = 0.100). Larger GA areas at the baseline showed higher GA progression in mm2 per year (P = 0.04). Smaller GA areas and fovea-spared GA at the baseline exhibited a larger percentage increase (P < 0.001 and P = 0.015, respectively). There was a lower GA progression rate in eyes with outer retinal tubulations (ORT) (P = 0.027), yet no significant correlation was found between GA progression and other OCT features.ConclusionsSmaller, fovea-sparing GA eyes experienced a more substantial proportional increase over five years. Also, The presence of ORT was associated with a slower rate of GA progression. Additionally, we observed a trend of faster GA growth in smokers and female genders.

Geographic atrophy in Asia

PURPOSE

Geographic atrophy (GA) is a late-stage manifestation of age-related macular degeneration associated with vision loss. Differences between Asian and non-Asian populations with GA have been reported. It is essential to understand these differences because they may reflect variations in the natural history of the disease and its underlying pathophysiology, impacting resultant future treatment strategies and clinical trial designs.

METHODS

A non-systematic search for articles published up to November 22, 2023 was performed using PubMed. Reference lists from included articles were reviewed and relevant articles manually selected and included, as well as read for background information about the topic. Only articles in English were considered for inclusion in this narrative review.

RESULTS

Although the overall prevalence of GA appears to be low across Asia and shows a male predominance, regional variability is evident. Compared with White and other non-Asian populations, Asian populations typically have more distinct but fewer drusen overall (regardless of type), smaller GA lesion size at presentation, a thicker choroid, and lower rates of bilaterality. In both Asian and non-Asian populations, certain characteristics of GA may be associated with an increased risk of fast disease progression.

CONCLUSION

The characteristics of GA in Asian populations show some similarities as well as relevant differences compared with those in White and other non-Asian populations. A better understanding of the characteristics associated with GA subphenotypes and predictors of progression will help to optimize management strategies for Asian patients with GA and improve study designs for future interventional trials.

Deep Learning to Predict the Future Growth of Geographic Atrophy from Fundus Autofluorescence

Purpose

The region of growth (ROG) of geographic atrophy (GA) throughout the macular area has an impact on visual outcomes. Here, we developed multiple deep learning models to predict the 1-year ROG of GA lesions using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images.

Design

In this retrospective analysis, 3 types of models were developed using FAF images collected 6 months after baseline to predict the GA lesion area (segmented lesion mask) at 1.5 years, FAF images collected at baseline and 6 months to predict the GA lesion at 1.5 years, and FAF images collected 6 months after baseline to predict the GA lesion at 1 and 1.5 years. The 1-year ROG from the 6-month visit was derived by taking the difference between the GA lesion area (segmented lesion mask) at the 1.5-year and 6-month visits.

Participants

Patients enrolled in the following lampalizumab clinical trials and prospective observational studies: NCT02247479, NCT02247531, NCT02479386, and NCT02399072.

Methods

Datasets of study eyes from 597 patients were split into model training (310), validation (78), and test sets (209), stratified by baseline or initial lesion area, lesion growth rate, foveal involvement, and focality. Deep learning experiments were performed using the 2-dimensional U-Net; whole-lesion and multiclass models were developed.

Main Outcome Measures

The performance of the models was evaluated by calculating the Dice score, coefficient of determination (R2), and the squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r2) between the true and derived GA lesion 1-year ROG.

Results

The model using baseline and 6-month FAF images to predict GA lesion enlargement at 1.5 years had the best performance for the derived 1-year ROG. Mean Dice scores were 0.73, 0.68, and 0.70 in the training, validation, and test sets, respectively. The R2 (0.77, 0.53, and 0.79) and r2 (0.83, 0.61, and 0.79) showed similar trends across the 3 sets.

Conclusions

These findings show the potential of using baseline and/or 6-month visit FAF images to predict 1-year GA ROG using a deep learning approach. This work could potentially help support decision-making in clinical trials and more informed treatment decisions in clinical practice.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Determinants of Four-Year Visual Acuity Loss in Geographic Atrophy: An Analysis of Age-Related Eye Disease Study and Age-Related Eye Disease Study 2

PURPOSE

To investigate the relationship between geographic atrophy (GA) progression and change in best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) over 4 years and identify factors associated with faster BCVA loss.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of 2 randomized controlled clinical trials.

PARTICIPANTS

Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) and AREDS2 participants with GA secondary to nonexudative age-related macular degeneration.

METHODS

Baseline and annual color fundus photographs were assessed for GA area and proximity to the foveal center. Best-corrected visual acuity was measured using Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) charts. Analyses included BCVA change over 4 years, with the relationship of BCVA decline with GA progression and other baseline factors examined using multivariable linear mixed-effects models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was BCVA change over 4 years. Secondary outcomes included BCVA change from baseline to years 1, 2, and 3.

RESULTS

We included 1351 eyes from 994 participants, including 594 eyes from 464 participants with 4-year BCVA follow-up. Higher baseline BCVA, smaller baseline GA proximity to the foveal center, and greater GA growth rate were each independently associated with larger BCVA loss over 4 years (each P < 0.001). Among the 594 eyes with 4-year BCVA data, 69 eyes with a baseline BCVA < 40 letters (Snellen equivalent of 20/160 or worse) and 42 eyes with baseline GA located more than 1 mm from the foveal center did not experience significant BCVA loss over 4 years. In contrast, 483 eyes that met both criteria of baseline BCVA ≥ 40 letters and GA lesions involving or within 1 mm of the foveal center showed significant BCVA loss over 4 years (mean change = -11.33 letters [95% confidence interval = -12.80 to -9.84]), with faster GA progression associated with larger BCVA loss (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort, eyes with GA involving or within 1 mm of the foveal center and a baseline BCVA of ≥ 40 letters appeared more likely to experience significant BCVA loss, suggesting these eyes may benefit more from therapies that slow GA progression. Our findings support a personalized approach to managing patients with GA, potentially guiding the design of future GA trials.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Age-related macular degeneration: natural history revisited in geographic atrophy

Progression of geographic atrophy varies significantly based on individual and lesion characteristics. Much research has strived to understand prognostic indicators of lesion progression over time, yet integrating findings to date may pose a challenge to clinicians. This review strives to synthesize current knowledge on genetic, behavioral, structural, and functional factors that influence geographic atrophy across the lifetime. Further, it highlights how vision-related quality of life allows for a more holistic appraisal of the impact of geographic atrophy on everyday functioning. The ultimate aim of this paper is to aid clinicians in counseling patients on medical management as well as providing accurate disease prognostication tailored to the individual patient.

Association of Hyperautofluorescence Signals with Geographic Atrophy Progression in the METformin for the MINimization of Geographic Atrophy Progression Trial

Purpose

To investigate the association between rim area focal hyperautofluorescence (RAFH) signals and geographic atrophy (GA) growth rates, as well as the impact of oral metformin on the longitudinal change of RAFH.

Design

Secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial.

Participants

Seventy-one eyes from 44 participants with GA and ≥6 months of follow-up in the METformin for the MINimization of geographic atrophy progression study.

Methods

Fundus autofluorescence images were captured using a 488 nm excitation wavelength. Two masked graders identified and measured RAFH lesions using proprietary semiautomatic segmentation software and ImageJ. We calculated RAFH by dividing the areas of hyperautofluorescence within a 450-μm rim circumscribing the GA by the total area enclosed within this rim.

Main Outcome Measures

Longitudinal changes in RAFH and GA area.

Results

Baseline RAFH was positively associated with the baseline square root of GA area 0.065/year (P < 0.001). In the entire study cohort, higher baseline RAFH was associated with a faster GA area growth rate in mm2/year (Spearman's ρ = 0.53; P < 0.001). The association became weaker in square root-transformed GA area growth (ρ = 0.19, P = 0.11) and perimeter-adjusted GA growth rate (ρ = 0.28, P = 0.02), achieving statistical significance only in the latter. When this analysis was stratified into 3 baseline GA tertiles, the first and second tertiles showed weak to moderate association with statistical significance in all 3 modes of GA growth rates. Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence increased slightly but significantly over time at 0.020/year (P < 0.01). Rim area focal hyperautofluorescence increased slightly but significantly over time at 0.020/year (P < 0.01). The use of oral metformin was not significantly associated with the change in RAFH over time compared with the observation group (0.023/year vs. 0.016/year; P = 0.29).

Conclusions

Increased baseline RAFH is associated with faster GA area progression. However, the effect size of this association may depend on the baseline GA lesion size such that small to medium-sized GA lesions display this relationship regardless of the mode of the calculation of GA growth rate.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Photoreceptor-RPE loss ratio and fundus autofluorescence patterns as predictive factors for lesion progression in geographic atrophy

PURPOSE

To assess the impact of the ratio between photoreceptor (PR) loss and retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) loss on the progression of geographic atrophy (GA) and to explore correlations between abnormal fundus autofluorescence (FAF) patterns and the PR-RPE loss ratio.

DESIGN

Single-centre, retrospective case series.

METHODS

Multimodal images from 87 treatment-naïve patients with GA and a follow-up of 6-24 months were included. Geographic atrophy areas on FAF images and areas of PR-RPE loss on optical coherence tomography images at baseline were manually annotated, and FAF patterns were classified. The impact of these biomarkers on GA progression through month 24 as measured on FAF was evaluated using random slope and intercept models and Spearman correlation coefficients (ρ).

RESULTS

Mean square-root GA growth rate was 0.27 ± 0.28 mm per year. Mean PR-RPE loss ratio at baseline was 2.16 ± 1.75. Fundus autofluorescence patterns "diffuse" and "diffuse trickling" showed higher PR-RPE loss ratios at baseline and contributed statistically significantly to the slope of GA progression (p = 0.01 and p = 0.0019). Baseline GA lesion size was negatively correlated to PR-RPE loss ratios at baseline (ρ = -0.47, p < 0.0001). Overall, GA growth was higher in patients with higher PR-RPE loss ratios at baseline (ρ = 0.35, p = 0.0011), and the ratio's contribution to the slope of GA progression was statistically significant (p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Eyes with higher PR-RPE loss ratios were more likely to exhibit FAF patterns "diffuse" and "diffuse trickling" and showed higher GA progression rates. Baseline characteristics derived from FAF and OCT images may thus offer information on lesion progression.

Informing Endpoints for Clinical Trials of Geographic Atrophy

Geographic atrophy (GA), the non-neovascular advanced form of age-related macular degeneration, remains an important disease area in which treatment needs are currently unmet. Recent clinical trials using drugs that target the complement pathway have shown modest yet consistent reductions in GA expansion but without commensurate changes in measures of visual function. In this review, we summarize information from the wide range of studies describing the characteristics of GA morphology and enumerate the factors influencing the growth rates of lesions and the directionality of expansion. In addition, we review the relationship between GA growth and the various measures of vision that reflect changes in function. We consider the reasons for the discordance between the anatomical and functional endpoints in current use and discuss methods to align these key outcomes.

Measuring Geographic Atrophy Area Using Column-Based Machine Learning Software on Spectral-Domain Optical Coherence Tomography versus Fundus Auto Fluorescence

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to compare geographic atrophy (GA) area semi-automatic measurement using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) versus optical coherence tomography (OCT) annotation with the cRORA (complete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retinal atrophy) criteria.

METHODS

GA findings on FAF and OCT were semi-automatically annotated at a single time point in 36 pairs of FAF and OCT scans obtained from 36 eyes in 24 patients with dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The GA area, focality, perimeter, circularity, minimum and maximum Feret diameter, and minimum distance from the center were compared between FAF and OCT annotations.

RESULTS

The total GA area measured on OCT was 4.74 ± 3.80 mm2. In contrast, the total GA measured on FAF was 13.47 ± 8.64 mm2 (p < 0.0001), with a mean difference of 8.72 ± 6.35 mm2. Multivariate regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between the difference in area between OCT and FAF and the total baseline lesion perimeter and maximal lesion diameter measured on OCT (adjusted r2: 0.52; p < 0.0001) and the total baseline lesion area measured on FAF (adjusted r2: 0.83; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

We report that the GA area measured on FAF differs significantly from the GA area measured on OCT. Further research is warranted in order to determine the clinical relevance of these findings.

Topographic Clinical Insights From Deep Learning-Based Geographic Atrophy Progression Prediction

Purpose

To explore the contributions of fundus autofluorescence (FAF) topographic imaging features to the performance of convolutional neural network-based deep learning (DL) algorithms in predicting geographic atrophy (GA) growth rate.

Methods

Retrospective study with data from study eyes from three clinical trials (NCT02247479, NCT02247531, NCT02479386) in GA. The algorithm was initially trained with full FAF images, and its performance was considered benchmark. Ablation experiments investigated the contribution of imaging features to the performance of the algorithms. Three FAF image regions were defined relative to GA: Lesion, Rim, and Background. For No Lesion, No Rim, and No Background datasets, a single region of interest was removed at a time. For Lesion, Rim, and Background Shuffled datasets, individual region pixels were randomly shuffled. For Lesion, Rim, and Background Mask datasets, masks of the regions were used. A Convex Hull dataset was generated to evaluate the importance of lesion size. Squared Pearson correlation (r2) was used to compare the predictive performance of ablated datasets relative to the benchmark.

Results

The Rim region influenced r2 more than the other two regions in all experiments, indicating the most relevant contribution of this region to the performance of the algorithms. In addition, similar performance was observed for all regions when pixels were shuffled or only a mask was used, indicating intensity information was not independently informative without textural context.

Conclusions

These ablation experiments enabled topographic clinical insights on FAF images from a DL-based GA progression prediction algorithm.

Translational Relevance

Results from this study may lead to new insights on GA progression prediction.

Association Between Quantitative and Qualitative Imaging Biomarkers and Geographic Atrophy Growth Rate

PURPOSE

Investigate associations between geographic atrophy (GA) growth rate and multimodal imaging biomarkers and patient demographics in patients with advanced non-neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nnAMD).

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

One hundred twenty-one eyes of 66 patients with advanced nnAMD with GA enrolled in the University of Colorado AMD Registry from August 2014 to June 2021, with follow-up through June 2023. Multimodal images were reviewed by two graders for imaging biomarkers at enrollment. GA growth rate and square-root transformed (SQRT) GA growth rate were measured between enrollment and final visit. Associations between the outcome SQRT GA growth rate and imaging biomarkers, baseline GA lesions characteristics, and patient demographics were evaluated.

RESULTS

Average GA growth rate was 1.430 mm2/year and SQRT GA growth rate was 0.268 mm/year over a mean of 3.7 years. SQRT GA growth rate was positively associated with patient age (P = .010) and female sex (0.035), and negatively associated with body mass index (0.041). After adjustment for these demographic factors, SQRT GA growth rate was positively associated with presence of non-exudative subretinal fluid (P < .001), non-exudative subretinal hyperreflective material (P = .037), and incomplete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retina atrophy (P = .022), and negatively associated with subfoveal choroidal thickness (P = .031) and presence of retinal pseudocysts (P = .030). Larger baseline GA size at enrollment was associated with faster GA growth rate (P = .002) but not SQRT GA growth rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Select patient demographic factors and basic clinically-relevant imaging biomarkers were associated with GA growth rate. These biomarkers may guide patient selection when considering treating GA patients with novel therapeutics.

The effect of complement C3 or C5 inhibition on geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration: A living systematic review and meta-analysis

With the introduction of therapies to treat geographic atrophy (GA), GA management in clinical practice is now possible. A living systematic review can provide access to timely and robust evidence synthesis. This review found that complement factor 3 and 5 (C3 and C5) inhibition compared to sham likely reduces change in square root GA area at 12 months and untransformed GA area at 24 months. There is likely little to no difference in the rate of systemic treatment-emergent adverse events compared to sham. C3 and C5 inhibition, however, likely does not improve best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 12 months, and the evidence is uncertain regarding change in BCVA at 24 months. Higher rates of ocular treatment emergent adverse effects with complement inhibition occur at 12 months and likely at 24 months. Complement inhibition likely results in new onset neovascular age-related macular degeneration at 12 months. This living meta-analysis will continuously incorporate new evidence.

METformin for the MINimization of Geographic Atrophy Progression (METforMIN): A Randomized Trial

Purpose

Metformin use has been associated with a decreased risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) progression in observational studies. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of oral metformin for slowing geographic atrophy (GA) progression.

Design

Parallel-group, multicenter, randomized phase II clinical trial.

Participants

Participants aged ≥ 55 years without diabetes who had GA from atrophic AMD in ≥ 1 eye.

Methods

We enrolled participants across 12 clinical centers and randomized participants in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral metformin (2000 mg daily) or observation for 18 months. Fundus autofluorescence imaging was obtained at baseline and every 6 months.

Main Outcome Measures

The primary efficacy endpoint was the annualized enlargement rate of the square root-transformed GA area. Secondary endpoints included best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and low luminance visual acuity (LLVA) at each visit.

Results

Of 66 enrolled participants, 34 (57 eyes) were randomized to the observation group and 32 (53 eyes) were randomized to the treatment group. The median follow-up duration was 13.9 and 12.6 months in the observation and metformin groups, respectively. The mean ± standard error annualized enlargement rate of square root transformed GA area was 0.35 ± 0.04 mm/year in the observation group and 0.42 ± 0.04 mm/year in the treatment group (risk difference = 0.07 mm/year, 95% confidence interval = -0.05 to 0.18 mm/year; P = 0.26). The mean ± standard error decline in BCVA was 4.8 ± 1.7 letters/year in the observation group and 3.4 ± 1.1 letters/year in the treatment group (P = 0.56). The mean ± standard error decline in LLVA was 7.3 ± 2.5 letters/year in the observation group and 0.8 ± 2.2 letters/year in the treatment group (P = 0.06). Fourteen participants in the metformin group experienced nonserious adverse events related to metformin, with gastrointestinal side effects as the most common. No serious adverse events were attributed to metformin.

Conclusions

The results of this trial as conducted do not support oral metformin having effects on reducing the progression of GA. Additional placebo-controlled trials are needed to explore the role of metformin for AMD, especially for earlier stages of the disease.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Progression Dynamics of Early versus Later Stage Atrophic Lesions in Nonneovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration Using Quantitative OCT Biomarker Segmentation

PURPOSE

To investigate the progression of geographic atrophy secondary to nonneovascular age-related macular degeneration in early and later stage lesions using artificial intelligence-based precision tools.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of an observational cohort study.

SUBJECTS

Seventy-four eyes of 49 patients with ≥ 1 complete retinal pigment epithelial and outer retinal atrophy (cRORA) lesion secondary to age-related macular degeneration were included. Patients were divided between recently developed cRORA and lesions with advanced disease status.

METHODS

Patients were prospectively imaged by spectral-domain OCT volume scans. The study period encompassed 18 months with scheduled visits every 6 months. Growth rates of recent cRORA-converted lesions were compared with lesions in an advanced disease status using mixed effect models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The progression of retinal pigment epithelial loss (RPEL) was considered the primary end point. Secondary end points consisted of external limiting membrane disruption and ellipsoid zone loss. These pathognomonic imaging biomarkers were quantified using validated deep-learning algorithms. Further, the ellipsoid zone/RPEL ratio was analyzed in both study cohorts.

RESULTS

Mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) square root progression of recently converted lesions was 79.68 (95% CI, -77.14 to 236.49), 68.22 (95% CI, -101.21 to 237.65), and 84.825 (95% CI, -124.82 to 294.47) mm/half year for RPEL, external limiting membrane loss, and ellipsoid zone loss respectively. Mean square root progression of advanced lesions was 131.74 (95% CI, -22.57 to 286.05), 129.96 (95% CI, -36.67 to 296.59), and 116.84 (95% CI, -90.56 to 324.3) mm/half year for RPEL, external limiting membrane loss, and ellipsoid zone loss, respectively. RPEL (P = 0.038) and external limiting membrane disruption (P = 0.026) progression showed significant differences between the 2 study cohorts. Further recent converters had significantly (P < 0.001) higher ellipsoid zone/RPEL ratios at all time points compared with patients in an advanced disease status (1.71 95% CI, 1.12-2.28 vs. 1.14; 95% CI, 0.56-1.71).

CONCLUSION

Early cRORA lesions have slower growth rates in comparison to atrophic lesions in advanced disease stages. Differences in growth dynamics may play a crucial role in understanding the pathophysiology of nonneovascular age-related macular degeneration and for the interpretation of clinical trials in geographic atrophy. Individual disease monitoring using artificial intelligence-based quantification paves the way toward optimized geographic atrophy management.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Geographic atrophy: Mechanism of disease, pathophysiology, and role of the complement system

Geographic atrophy (GA) is an advanced form of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), characterized by atrophic lesions that first start in the outer retina and progressively expand to cover the macula and the fovea, the center of the macula, leading to irreversible loss of vision over time. GA is distinct from wet or neovascular AMD (nAMD), the other form of advanced AMD. Neovascular AMD is characterized by new invading leaky blood vessels in the macula that can lead to acute vision loss. GA and nAMD may coexist in the same eye. The underlying pathophysiology of GA is complex and thought to involve chronic inflammation due to overactivation of the complement system that leads to the loss of photoreceptors, retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), and the underlying choriocapillaris. The disappearance of these structures appears as sharply demarcated atrophic lesions that are typical of GA. Researchers have reported about 1 million reported cases of GA in the United States, and about 160,000 cases occur per year. The most important risk factors for GA are increasing age and family history. Diagnosis of GA is usually made by using multimodal imaging techniques. Lesions associated with GA are highly heterogeneous, and the growth rate may differ from patient to patient. Despite the progressive nature of GA, the fovea may be spared until much later in the disease, thereby retaining central vision in patients. With time, atrophic lesions may progressively grow to involve the fovea, thereby severely impairing central vision. Vision loss can happen rapidly once the lesions reach the fovea. However, even without the involvement of the fovea, ongoing vision impairment impacting daily life may be present. Median time from GA not involving the center of the fovea (without subfoveal involvement) to GA with lesion boundary affecting the foveal center (subfoveal involvement) ranges from 1.4 to 2.5 years. GA can greatly impact patients' functioning and quality of life and limit their independence by interfering with activities of daily living, including difficulties with reading, driving, watching television, recognizing faces, and being unable to do household chores. No treatments have been available until intravitreal pegcetacoplan was recently approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for GA secondary to AMD. DISCLOSURES: Dr Bakri serves as a consultant to Apellis Pharmaceuticals, as well as AbbVie, Adverum, Eyepoint, iLumen, Iveric Bio, Genentech, Novartis, Outlook Therapeutics, Pixium, Regeneron, Roche, and Regenxbio. Drs Sharp, Luo, and Sarda are employees of Apellis Pharmaceuticals. Dr Bektas and Ms Khan are employees of RTI Health Solutions. Apellis developed and led the concept design of this publication, review and interpretation, approval, and decision to publish. This research was developed under a research contract between RTI Health Solutions and Apellis Pharmaceuticals and was funded by Apellis Pharmaceuticals. This supplement is to describe the disease of geographic atrophy and was funded by Apellis. Apellis Pharmaceuticals has developed Syfovre (pegcetacoplan), the first and only treatment for geographic atrophy.

The influence of the topographic location of geographic atrophy on vision-related quality of life in nonexudative age-related macular degeneration

PURPOSE

To examine associations between the topographic distribution of geographic atrophy (GA) and vision-related quality of life (VRQoL).

METHODS

This study included 237 eyes from 161 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). GA lesions were manually delineated with color fundus photographs obtained by the AREDS Research Group and atrophic area was measured in an Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) grid. VRQoL was measured using the National Eye Institute Visual Function Questionnaire (NEI-VFQ). Area of atrophy in the ETDRS grid subfields was correlated with VRQoL by linear regression modeling.

RESULTS

The average area of atrophy in the better and worse eye was 3.43mm² and 7.15mm² respectively. In multivariable analysis, VRQoL was not associated with total area of atrophy in the better eye (β, - 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], - 1.11 to 0.05; P = 0.07) or worse eye (β, 0.12; 95% CI, - 0.32 to 0.55; P = 0.59). However, area of atrophy in the central 1-mm-diameter zone of the better eye was significantly associated with VRQoL when the ETDRS subfields were examined individually (β, - 14.57; 95% CI, - 27.12 to - 2.02; P = 0.023), grouped into quadrants (β, - 18.35; 95% CI, - 30.03 to - 6.67; P = 0.002), inner and outer zones (β, - 17.26; 95% CI, - 29.38 to - 5.14; P = 0.006), or vertical and horizontal zones (β, - 18.97; 95% CI, - 30.18 to - 7.77; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In patients with GA, greater area of atrophy in the central 1-mm-diameter zone of the better eye was independently associated with lower VRQoL, while total area of atrophy in the better or worse eye was not.

Deep Learning to Predict Geographic Atrophy Area and Growth Rate from Multimodal Imaging

OBJECTIVE

To develop deep learning models for annualized geographic atrophy (GA) growth rate prediction using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images and spectral-domain OCT volumes from baseline visits, which can be used for prognostic covariate adjustment to increase power of clinical trials.

DESIGN

This retrospective analysis estimated GA growth rate as the slope of a linear fit on all available measurements of lesion area over a 2-year period. Three multitask deep learning models-FAF-only, OCT-only, and multimodal (FAF and OCT)-were developed to predict concurrent GA area and annualized growth rate.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were from prospective and observational lampalizumab clinical trials.

METHODS

The 3 models were trained on the development data set, tested on the holdout set, and further evaluated on the independent test sets. Baseline FAF images and OCT volumes from study eyes of patients with bilateral GA (NCT02247479; NCT02247531; and NCT02479386) were split into development (1279 patients/eyes) and holdout (443 patients/eyes) sets. Baseline FAF images from study eyes of NCT01229215 (106 patients/eyes) and NCT02399072 (169 patients/eyes) were used as independent test sets.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Model performance was evaluated using squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r²) between observed and predicted lesion areas/growth rates. Confidence intervals were calculated by bootstrap resampling (B = 10 000).

RESULTS

On the holdout data set, r² (95% confidence interval) of the FAF-only, OCT-only, and multimodal models for GA lesion area prediction was 0.96 (0.95-0.97), 0.91 (0.87-0.95), and 0.94 (0.92-0.96), respectively, and for GA growth rate prediction was 0.48 (0.41-0.55), 0.36 (0.29-0.43), and 0.47 (0.40-0.54), respectively. On the 2 independent test sets, r² of the FAF-only model for GA lesion area was 0.98 (0.97-0.99) and 0.95 (0.93-0.96), and for GA growth rate was 0.65 (0.52-0.75) and 0.47 (0.34-0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

We show the feasibility of using baseline FAF images and OCT volumes to predict individual GA area and growth rates using a multitask deep learning approach. The deep learning-based growth rate predictions could be used for covariate adjustment to increase power of clinical trials.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Perspectives from clinical trials: is geographic atrophy one disease?

Geographic atrophy (GA) is currently an untreatable condition. Emerging evidence from recent clinical trials show that anti-complement therapy may be a successful treatment option. However, several trials in this therapy area have failed as well. This raises several questions. Firstly, does complement therapy work for all patients with GA? Secondly, is GA one disease? Can we assume that these failed clinical trials are due to ineffective interventions or are they due to flawed clinical trial designs, heterogeneity in GA progression rates or differences in study cohorts? In this article we try to answer these questions by providing an overview of the challenges of designing and interpreting outcomes of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in GA. These include differing inclusion-exclusion criteria, heterogeneous progression rates of the disease, outcome choices and confounders.

Predicting Topographic Disease Progression and Treatment Response of Pegcetacoplan in Geographic Atrophy Quantified by Deep Learning

PURPOSE

To identify disease activity and effects of intravitreal pegcetacoplan treatment on the topographic progression of geographic atrophy (GA) secondary to age-related macular degeneration quantified in spectral-domain OCT (SD-OCT) by automated deep learning assessment.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of a phase II clinical trial study evaluating pegcetacoplan in GA patients (FILLY, NCT02503332).

SUBJECTS

SD-OCT scans of 57 eyes with monthly treatment, 46 eyes with every-other-month (EOM) treatment, and 53 eyes with sham injection from baseline and 12-month follow-ups were included, in a total of 312 scans.

METHODS

Retinal pigment epithelium loss, photoreceptor (PR) integrity, and hyperreflective foci (HRF) were automatically segmented using validated deep learning algorithms. Local progression rate (LPR) was determined from a growth model measuring the local expansion of GA margins between baseline and 1 year. For each individual margin point, the eccentricity to the foveal center, the progression direction, mean PR thickness, and HRF concentration in the junctional zone were computed. Mean LPR in disease activity and treatment effect conditioned on these properties were estimated by spatial generalized additive mixed-effect models.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

LPR of GA, PR thickness, and HRF concentration in μm.

RESULTS

A total of 31,527 local GA margin locations were analyzed. LPR was higher for areas with low eccentricity to the fovea, thinner PR layer thickness, or higher HRF concentration in the GA junctional zone. When controlling for topographic and structural risk factors, we report on average a significantly lower LPR by -28.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], -42.8 to -9.4; P = 0.0051) and -23.9% (95% CI, -40.2 to -3.0; P = 0.027) for monthly and EOM-treated eyes, respectively, compared with sham.

CONCLUSIONS

Assessing GA progression on a topographic level is essential to capture the pathognomonic heterogeneity in individual lesion growth and therapeutic response. Pegcetacoplan-treated eyes showed a significantly slower GA lesion progression rate compared with sham, and an even slower growth rate toward the fovea. This study may help to identify patient cohorts with faster progressing lesions, in which pegcetacoplan treatment would be particularly beneficial. Automated artificial intelligence-based tools will provide reliable guidance for the management of GA in clinical practice.

A Clinical and Preclinical Assessment of Clinical Trials for Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness for the elderly in high-income countries. Although multivitamin antioxidant nutrients can slow the progression of intermediate "dry" or nonneovascular AMD, no treatment can halt or reverse any stage of dry disease. Multiple biologic pathways have been implicated in AMD pathobiology, including the complement pathway. These pathways have been targeted by various approaches in clinical trials. To date, no treatment has reached their prespecified primary end point in 2 phase III trials, a requirement by the US Food and Drug Administration for a new drug approval. Here, we describe perspectives on the failures and possible successes of various clinical trials that will guide further investigation. These perspectives will also discuss clinical trial design issues to consider in future investigations, and how recent insights into AMD pathobiology might both provide additional explanation for trials not reaching the prespecified primary end points and offer direction for identifying prioritized treatment targets.

Comparing Accuracies of Length-Type Geographic Atrophy Growth Rate Metrics Using Atrophy-Front Growth Modeling

Purpose

To compare the accuracies of the previously proposed square-root-transformed and perimeter-adjusted metrics for estimating length-type geographic atrophy (GA) growth rates.

Design

Cross-sectional and simulation-based study.

Participants

Thirty-eight eyes with GA from 27 patients.

Methods

We used a previously developed atrophy-front growth model to provide analytical and numerical evaluations of the square-root-transformed and perimeter-adjusted growth rate metrics on simulated and semisimulated GA growth data.

Main Outcome Measures

Comparison of the accuracies of the square-root-transformed and perimeter-adjusted metrics on simulated and semisimulated GA growth data.

Results

Analytical and numerical evaluations showed that the accuracy of the perimeter-adjusted metric is affected minimally by baseline lesion area, focality, and circularity over a wide range of GA growth rates. Average absolute errors of the perimeter-adjusted metric were approximately 20 times lower than those of the square-root-transformed metrics, per evaluation on a semisimulated dataset with growth rate characteristics matching clinically observed data.

Conclusions

Length-type growth rates have an intuitive, biophysical interpretation that is independent of lesion geometry, which supports their use in clinical trials of GA therapeutics. Taken in the context of prior studies, our analyses suggest that length-type GA growth rates should be measured using the perimeter-adjusted metric, rather than square-root-transformed metrics.

A hierarchical Bayesian entry time realignment method to study the long-term natural history of diseases

A major question in clinical science is how to study the natural course of a chronic disease from inception to end, which is challenging because it is impractical to follow patients over decades. Here, we developed BETR (Bayesian entry time realignment), a hierarchical Bayesian method for investigating the long-term natural history of diseases using data from patients followed over short durations. A simulation study shows that BETR outperforms an existing method that ignores patient-level variation in progression rates. BETR, when combined with a common Bayesian model comparison tool, can identify the correct disease progression function nearly 100% of the time, with high accuracy in estimating the individual disease durations and progression rates. Application of BETR in patients with geographic atrophy, a disease with a known natural history model, shows that it can identify the correct disease progression model. Applying BETR in patients with Huntington's disease demonstrates that the progression of motor symptoms follows a second order function over approximately 20 years.

Retinal Vessel Density in Age-Related Macular Degeneration Patients with Geographic Atrophy

We compared the retinal vessel density and inner retinal thickness in patients who had one eye with geographic atrophy (GA) and a fellow eye with intermediate age-related macular degeneration (iAMD). The vessel density from the superficial vascular complex (SVC) and deep vascular complex (DVC) through optical coherence tomography angiography and the thickness of the nerve fiber layer, ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GCIPL), inner nuclear layer (INL), outer nuclear layer (ONL) on a structural optical coherence tomography thickness map were measured in 28 eyes of 14 GA patients with iAMD in the fellow eye. GA eyes had significantly lower vessel density in the SVC (26.2 ± 3.9% vs. 28.3 ± 4.4%; p = 0.015) and DVC (24.2 ± 2.6% vs. 26.8 ± 1.9%; p = 0.003) than fellow eyes (iAMD). GCIPL and ONL were significantly thinner in GA eyes than in the fellow eyes (p = 0.032 and 0.024 in the foveal areas, p = 0.029 and 0.065 in the parafovea areas, respectively). Twenty-four eyes of 12 patients were followed up for 2 years and seven of the fellow eyes (58.3%) developed GA during the follow-up period and showed reduced vessel density in the SVC (26.4 ± 3.0% vs. 23.8 ± 2.9%; p = 0.087) and DVC (25.8 ± 2.2% vs. 22.4 ± 4.4%; p = 0.047) compared to baseline. Vessel density and GCIPL thickness map measurements are potential GA markers in non-neovascular AMD.

Progression of cRORA (Complete RPE and Outer Retinal Atrophy) in Dry Age-Related Macular Degeneration Measured Using SD-OCT

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term rate of progression and baseline predictors of geographic atrophy (GA) using complete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retinal atrophy (cRORA) annotation criteria.

Methods

This is a retrospective study. Columns of GA were manually annotated by two graders using a self-developed software on optical coherence tomography (OCT) B-scans and projected onto the infrared images. The primary outcomes were: (1) rate of area progression, (2) rate of square root area progression, and (3) rate of radial progression towards the fovea. The effects of 11 additional baseline predictors on the primary outcomes were analyzed: total area, focality (defined as the number of lesions whose area is >0.05 mm2), circularity, total lesion perimeter, minimum diameter, maximum diameter, minimum distance from the center, sex, age, presence/absence of hypertension, and lens status.

Results

GA was annotated in 33 pairs of baseline and follow-up OCT scans from 33 eyes of 18 patients with dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD) followed for at least 6 months. The mean rate of area progression was 1.49 ± 0.86 mm2/year (P < 0.0001 vs. baseline), and the mean rate of square root area progression was 0.33 ± 0.15 mm/year (P < 0.0001 vs. baseline). The mean rate of radial progression toward the fovea was 0.07 ± 0.11 mm/year. A multiple variable linear regression model (adjusted r2 = 0.522) revealed that baseline focality and female sex were significantly correlated with the rate of GA area progression.

Conclusions

GA area progression was quantified using OCT as an alternative to conventional measurements performed on fundus autofluorescence images. Baseline focality correlated with GA area progression rate and lesion's minimal distance from the center correlated with GA radial progression rate toward the center. These may be important markers for the assessment of GA activity.

Translational Relevance

Advanced method linking specific retinal micro-anatomy to GA area progression analysis.

An In Silica Model for RPE Loss Patterns in Choroideremia

Purpose

To use empirical data to develop a model of cell loss in choroideremia that predicts the known exponential rate of RPE loss and central, scalloped preservation pattern seen in this disease.

Methods

A computational model of RPE loss was created in Python 3.7, which constructed an array of RPE cells clusters, binarized as either live or atrophic. Two rules were applied to this model: the background effect gave each cell a chance of dying defined by a background function, and the neighbor effect increased the chance of RPE cell death if a neighbor were dead. The known anatomic distribution of rods, RPE, choriocapillaris density, amacrine, ganglion, and cone cells were derived from the literature and applied to this model. Atrophy growth rates were measured over arbitrary time units and fit to the known exponential decay model. The main outcome measures: included topography of atrophy over time and fit of simulated residual RPE area to exponential decay.

Results

A background effect alone can simulate exponential decay, but does not simulate the central island preservation seen in choroideremia. An additive neighbor effect alone does not simulate exponential decay. When the neighbor effect multiplies the background effect using the rod density function, our model follows an exponential decay, similar to previous observations. Also, our model predicts a residual island of RPE that resembles the topographic distribution of residual RPE seen in choroideremia.

Conclusions

The pattern of RPE loss in choroideremia can be predicted by applying simple rules. The RPE preservation pattern typically seen in choroideremia may be related to the underlying pattern of rod density. Further studies are needed to validate these findings.

Local Progression Kinetics of Geographic Atrophy Depends Upon the Border Location

Purpose

To assess the influence of lesion morphology and location on geographic atrophy (GA) growth rate.

Methods

We manually delineated GA on color fundus photographs of 237 eyes in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. We calculated local border expansion rate (BER) as the linear distance that a point on the GA border traveled over 1 year based on a Euclidean distance map. Eye-specific BER was defined as the mean local BER of all points on the GA border in an eye. The percentage area affected by GA was defined as the GA area divided by the total retinal area in the region.

Results

GA enlarged 1.51 ± 1.96 mm2 in area and 0.13 ± 0.11 mm in distance over 1 year. The GA area growth rate (mm2/y) was associated with the baseline GA area (P < 0.001), perimeter (P < 0.001), lesion number (P < 0.001), and circularity index (P < 0.001); in contrast, eye-specific BER (mm/y) was not significantly associated with any of these factors. As the retinal eccentricity increased from 0 to 3.5 mm, the local BER increased from 0.10 to 0.24 mm/y (P < 0.001); in contrast, the percentage of area affected by GA decreased from 49.3% to 2.3%.

Conclusions

Using distance-based measurements allows GA progression evaluation without significant confounding effects from baseline GA morphology. Local GA progression rates increased as a function of retinal eccentricity within the macula which is opposite of the trend for GA distribution, suggesting that GA initiation and enlargement may be mediated by different biological processes.

Growth Modeling for Quantitative, Spatially Resolved Geographic Atrophy Lesion Kinetics

Purpose

To demonstrate the applicability of a growth modeling framework for quantifying spatial variations in geographic atrophy (GA) lesion kinetics.

Methods

Thirty-eight eyes from 27 patients with GA secondary to age-related macular degeneration were imaged with a commercial swept source optical coherence tomography instrument at two visits separated by 1 year. Local GA growth rates were computed at 6-µm intervals along each lesion margin using a previously described growth model. Corresponding margin eccentricities, margin angles, and growth angles were also computed. The average GA growth rates conditioned on margin eccentricity, margin angle, growth angle, and fundus position were estimated via kernel regression.

Results

A total of 88,356 GA margin points were analyzed. The average GA growth rates exhibited a hill-shaped dependency on eccentricity, being highest in the 0.5 mm to 1.6 mm range and lower on either side of that range. Average growth rates were also found to be higher for growth trajectories oriented away from (smaller growth angle), rather than toward (larger growth angle), the foveal center. The dependency of average growth rate on margin angle was less pronounced, although lesion segments in the superior and nasal aspects tended to grow faster.

Conclusions

Our proposed growth modeling framework seems to be well-suited for generating accurate, spatially resolved GA growth rate atlases and should be confirmed on larger datasets.

Translational Relevance

Our proposed growth modeling framework may enable more accurate measurements of spatial variations in GA growth rates.

Geographic atrophy severity and mortality in age-related macular degeneration

PURPOSE

To examine the association between geographic atrophy (GA) disease characteristics and mortality risk.

METHODS

We manually delineated color fundus photographs of 209 Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) participants with GA secondary to age-related macular degeneration to identify total area of atrophy, GA effective radius growth rate, disease laterality, and the presence of foveal center involvement. Associations between GA characteristics and mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for health status indicators.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 6.8 years, 48 (23.0%) participants with GA died. In adjusted models, accounting for age, sex, and health status, participants with total GA area in the highest quartile had a significantly increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to those with total GA area in the lowest quartile (hazard ratio [HR], 3.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-8.86; P = 0.011). GA effective radius growth rate, bilateral disease, and the presence of foveal center involvement were not significantly associated with mortality. In a multivariable model, including health status indicators and all GA characteristics, total area of atrophy in the highest quartile remained significantly associated with mortality (HR, 4.65; 95% CI, 1.29-16.70; P = 0.019).

CONCLUSIONS

More extensive GA, as indicated by a greater total area of atrophy, was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in our cohort. The extent of GA may reflect the extent of underlying disease processes that contribute to greater mortality risk, further suggesting that GA may be part of a systemic rather than purely ocular disease process.

Natural history of central sparing in geographic atrophy secondary to non-exudative age-related macular degeneration

BACKGROUND

The macular central 1 mm diameter zone is crucial to patients' visual acuity, but the long-term natural history of central sparing in eyes with geographic atrophy (GA) is unknown.

METHODS

We manually segmented GA in 210 eyes with GA involving central 1 mm diameter zone (mean follow-up=3.8 years) in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. We measured the residual area in central 1 mm diameter zone and calculated central residual effective radius (CRER) as square root of (residual area/π). A linear mixed-effects model was used to model residual size over time. We added a horizontal translation factor to each data set to account for different durations of GA involving the central zone.

RESULTS

The decline rate of central residual area was associated with baseline residual area (p=0.008), but a transformation from central residual area to CRER eliminated this relationship (p=0.51). After the introduction of horizontal translation factors to each data set, CRER declined linearly over approximately 13 years (r²=0.80). The growth rate of total GA effective radius was 0.14 mm/year (95% CI 0.12 to 0.15), 3.7-fold higher than the decline rate of CRER (0.038 mm/year, 95% CI 0.034 to 0.042). The decline rate of CRER was 53.3% higher in eyes with than without advanced age-related macular degeneration in the fellow eyes at any visit (p=0.007).

CONCLUSIONS

CRER in eyes with GA declined linearly over approximately 13 years and may serve as an anatomic endpoint in future clinical trials aiming to preserve the central zone.