Machine Learning to Predict Faricimab Treatment Outcome in Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Purpose

To develop machine learning (ML) models to predict, at baseline, treatment outcomes at month 9 in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) receiving faricimab.

Design

Retrospective proof of concept study.

Participants

Patients enrolled in the phase II AVENUE trial (NCT02484690) of faricimab in nAMD.

Methods

Baseline characteristics and spectral domain-OCT (SD-OCT) image data from 185 faricimab-treated eyes were split into 80% training and 20% test sets at the patient level. Input variables were baseline age, sex, best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), central subfield thickness (CST), low luminance deficit, treatment arm, and SD-OCT images. A regression problem (BCVA) and a binary classification problem (reduction of CST by 35%) were considered. Overall, 10 models were developed and tested for each problem. Benchmark classical ML models (linear, random forest, extreme gradient boosting) were trained on baseline characteristics; benchmark deep neural networks (DNNs) were trained on baseline SD-OCT B-scans. Baseline characteristics and SD-OCT data were merged using 2 approaches: model stacking (using DNN prediction as an input feature for classical ML models) and model averaging (which averaged predictions from the DNN using SD-OCT volume and from classical ML models using baseline characteristics).

Main Outcome Measures

Treatment outcomes were defined by 2 target variables: functional (BCVA letter score) and anatomical (percent decrease in CST from baseline) outcomes at month 9.

Results

The best-performing BCVA regression model with respect to the test coefficient of determination (R2) was the linear model in the model-stacking approach with R2 of 0.31. The best-performing CST classification model with respect to test area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was the benchmark linear model with AUROC of 0.87. A post hoc analysis showed the baseline BCVA and the baseline CST had the most effect in the all-model prediction for BCVA regression and CST classification, respectively.

Conclusions

Promising signals for predicting treatment outcomes from baseline characteristics were detected; however, the predictive benefit of baseline images was unclear in this proof-of-concept study. Further testing and validation with larger, independent datasets is required to fully explore the predictive capacity of ML models using baseline imaging data.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Machine Learning to Predict Response to Ranibizumab in Neovascular Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Purpose

Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) shows variable treatment response to intravitreal anti-VEGF. This analysis compared the potential of different artificial intelligence (AI)-based machine learning models using OCT and clinical variables to accurately predict at baseline the best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 9 months in response to ranibizumab in patients with nAMD.

Design

Retrospective analysis.

Participants

Baseline and imaging data from patients with subfoveal choroidal neovascularization secondary to age-related macular dengeration.

Methods

Baseline data from 502 study eyes from the HARBOR (NCT00891735) prospective clinical trial (monthly ranibizumab 0.5 and 2.0 mg arms) were pooled; 432 baseline OCT volume scans were included in the analysis. Seven models, based on baseline quantitative OCT features (Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [Lasso] OCT minimum [min], Lasso OCT 1 standard error [SE]); on quantitative OCT features and clinical variables at baseline (Lasso min, Lasso 1SE, CatBoost, RF [random forest]); or on baseline OCT images only (deep learning [DL] model), were systematically compared with a benchmark linear model of baseline age and BCVA. Quantitative OCT features were derived by a DL segmentation model on the volume images, including retinal layer volumes and thicknesses, and retinal fluid biomarkers, including statistics on fluid volume and distribution.

Main Outcome Measures

Prognostic ability of the models was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R²) and median absolute error (MAE; letters).

Results

In the first cross-validation split, mean R² (MAE) of the Lasso min, Lasso 1SE, CatBoost, and RF models was 0.46 (7.87), 0.42 (8.43), 0.45 (7.75), and 0.43 (7.60), respectively. These models ranked higher than or similar to the benchmark model (mean R², 0.41; mean MAE, 8.20 letters) and better than OCT-only models (mean R²: Lasso OCT min, 0.20; Lasso OCT 1SE, 0.16; DL, 0.34). The Lasso min model was selected for detailed analysis; mean R² (MAE) of the Lasso min and benchmark models for 1000 repeated cross-validation splits were 0.46 (7.7) and 0.42 (8.0), respectively.

Conclusions

Machine learning models based on AI-segmented OCT features and clinical variables at baseline may predict future response to ranibizumab treatment in patients with nAMD. However, further developments will be needed to realize the clinical utility of such AI-based tools.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Geographic Atrophy Segmentation Using Multimodal Deep Learning

Purpose

To examine deep learning (DL)-based methods for accurate segmentation of geographic atrophy (GA) lesions using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) and near-infrared (NIR) images.

Methods

This retrospective analysis utilized imaging data from study eyes of patients enrolled in Proxima A and B (NCT02479386; NCT02399072) natural history studies of GA. Two multimodal DL networks (UNet and YNet) were used to automatically segment GA lesions on FAF; segmentation accuracy was compared with annotations by experienced graders. The training data set comprised 940 image pairs (FAF and NIR) from 183 patients in Proxima B; the test data set comprised 497 image pairs from 154 patients in Proxima A. Dice coefficient scores, Bland-Altman plots, and Pearson correlation coefficient (r) were used to assess performance.

Results

On the test set, Dice scores for the DL network to grader comparison ranged from 0.89 to 0.92 for screening visit; Dice score between graders was 0.94. GA lesion area correlations (r) for YNet versus grader, UNet versus grader, and between graders were 0.981, 0.959, and 0.995, respectively. Longitudinal GA lesion area enlargement correlations (r) for screening to 12 months (n = 53) were lower (0.741, 0.622, and 0.890, respectively) compared with the cross-sectional results at screening. Longitudinal correlations (r) from screening to 6 months (n = 77) were even lower (0.294, 0.248, and 0.686, respectively).

Conclusions

Multimodal DL networks to segment GA lesions can produce accurate results comparable with expert graders.

Translational Relevance

DL-based tools may support efficient and individualized assessment of patients with GA in clinical research and practice.

Deep Learning to Predict Geographic Atrophy Area and Growth Rate from Multimodal Imaging

OBJECTIVE

To develop deep learning models for annualized geographic atrophy (GA) growth rate prediction using fundus autofluorescence (FAF) images and spectral-domain OCT volumes from baseline visits, which can be used for prognostic covariate adjustment to increase power of clinical trials.

DESIGN

This retrospective analysis estimated GA growth rate as the slope of a linear fit on all available measurements of lesion area over a 2-year period. Three multitask deep learning models-FAF-only, OCT-only, and multimodal (FAF and OCT)-were developed to predict concurrent GA area and annualized growth rate.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were from prospective and observational lampalizumab clinical trials.

METHODS

The 3 models were trained on the development data set, tested on the holdout set, and further evaluated on the independent test sets. Baseline FAF images and OCT volumes from study eyes of patients with bilateral GA (NCT02247479; NCT02247531; and NCT02479386) were split into development (1279 patients/eyes) and holdout (443 patients/eyes) sets. Baseline FAF images from study eyes of NCT01229215 (106 patients/eyes) and NCT02399072 (169 patients/eyes) were used as independent test sets.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Model performance was evaluated using squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r²) between observed and predicted lesion areas/growth rates. Confidence intervals were calculated by bootstrap resampling (B = 10 000).

RESULTS

On the holdout data set, r² (95% confidence interval) of the FAF-only, OCT-only, and multimodal models for GA lesion area prediction was 0.96 (0.95-0.97), 0.91 (0.87-0.95), and 0.94 (0.92-0.96), respectively, and for GA growth rate prediction was 0.48 (0.41-0.55), 0.36 (0.29-0.43), and 0.47 (0.40-0.54), respectively. On the 2 independent test sets, r² of the FAF-only model for GA lesion area was 0.98 (0.97-0.99) and 0.95 (0.93-0.96), and for GA growth rate was 0.65 (0.52-0.75) and 0.47 (0.34-0.60).

CONCLUSIONS

We show the feasibility of using baseline FAF images and OCT volumes to predict individual GA area and growth rates using a multitask deep learning approach. The deep learning-based growth rate predictions could be used for covariate adjustment to increase power of clinical trials.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S)

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Development of Deep Learning Models to Predict Best-Corrected Visual Acuity from Optical Coherence Tomography

Purpose

To develop deep learning (DL) models to predict best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) from optical coherence tomography (OCT) images from patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD).

Methods

Retrospective analysis of OCT images and associated BCVA measurements from the phase 3 HARBOR trial (NCT00891735). DL regression models were developed to predict BCVA at the concurrent visit and 12 months from baseline using OCT images. Binary classification models were developed to predict BCVA of Snellen equivalent of <20/40, <20/60, and ≤20/200 at the concurrent visit and 12 months from baseline.

Results

The regression model to predict BCVA at the concurrent visit had R² = 0.67 (root-mean-square error [RMSE] = 8.60) in study eyes and R² = 0.84 (RMSE = 9.01) in fellow eyes. The best classification model to predict BCVA at the concurrent visit had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.92 in study eyes and 0.98 in fellow eyes. The regression model to predict BCVA at month 12 using baseline OCT had R² = 0.33 (RMSE = 14.16) in study eyes and R² = 0.75 (RMSE = 11.27) in fellow eyes. The best classification model to predict BCVA at month 12 had AUC = 0.84 in study eyes and AUC = 0.96 in fellow eyes.

Conclusions

DL shows promise in predicting BCVA from OCTs in nAMD. Further research should elucidate the utility of models in clinical settings.

Translational Relevance

DL models predicting BCVA could be used to enhance understanding of structure–function relationships and develop more efficient clinical trials.

A Deep Learning Model to Predict a Diagnosis of Alzheimer Disease by Using 18F-FDG PET of the Brain

Purpose To develop and validate a deep learning algorithm that predicts the final diagnosis of Alzheimer disease (AD), mild cognitive impairment, or neither at fluorine 18 (18F) fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET of the brain and compare its performance to that of radiologic readers. Materials and Methods Prospective 18F-FDG PET brain images from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (2109 imaging studies from 2005 to 2017, 1002 patients) and retrospective independent test set (40 imaging studies from 2006 to 2016, 40 patients) were collected. Final clinical diagnosis at follow-up was recorded. Convolutional neural network of InceptionV3 architecture was trained on 90% of ADNI data set and tested on the remaining 10%, as well as the independent test set, with performance compared to radiologic readers. Model was analyzed with sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), saliency map, and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding. Results The algorithm achieved area under the ROC curve of 0.98 (95% confidence interval: 0.94, 1.00) when evaluated on predicting the final clinical diagnosis of AD in the independent test set (82% specificity at 100% sensitivity), an average of 75.8 months prior to the final diagnosis, which in ROC space outperformed reader performance (57% [four of seven] sensitivity, 91% [30 of 33] specificity; P < .05). Saliency map demonstrated attention to known areas of interest but with focus on the entire brain. Conclusion By using fluorine 18 fluorodeoxyglucose PET of the brain, a deep learning algorithm developed for early prediction of Alzheimer disease achieved 82% specificity at 100% sensitivity, an average of 75.8 months prior to the final diagnosis. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Larvie in this issue.