Classifying the severity of acute pancreatitis: towards a way forward

Predicting Hospitalization, Organ Dysfunction, and Mortality in Post-Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography Acute Pancreatitis: Are SIRS and qSOFA Reliable Tools?

Background: Post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis (PEP) has shown constant incidence throughout time, despite advances in endoscopic technology, devices, or personal skills of the operating endoscopists, with prevention and prediction of severity in PEP being constant concerns. Several prospective studies have investigated the role of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria or the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score in the PEP severity assessment. However, there are no clearly defined tools for the prediction of PEP severity. Methods: A total of 403 patients were prospectively monitored 60 days after ERCP for the detection of PEP development. Consequently, we evaluated the lengths of stay, incidence of organic dysfunction, and mortality rates of these patients. The predictive power of the univariate model was evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic curve and analyzing the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Incidence of PEP was similar to that reported in the majority of trials. The 60-day survival rate of PEP patients reached 82.8%. A qSOFA score ≥ 1 is a very good predictor for organ dysfunction (AUC 0.993, p < 0.0001). SIRS can also be considered a significant predictor for organic dysfunctions in PEP patients (AUC 0.926, p < 0.0001). However, only qSOFA was found to significantly predict mortality in PEP patients (AUC 0.885, p = 0.003), with SIRS criteria showing a much lower predictive power. Neither SIRS nor qSOFA showed any predictive value for the length of stay of PEP patients. Conclusion: Our study offers novel information about severity prediction in PEP patients. Both SIRS criteria and qSOFA showed good predictive value for organic dysfunction, mortality, and hospitalization.

Infected pancreatic necrosis: outcomes and clinical predictors of mortality. A post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study

The identification of high-risk patients in the early stages of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is critical, because it could help the clinicians to adopt more effective management strategies. We conducted a post hoc analysis of the MANCTRA-1 international study to assess the association between clinical risk factors and mortality among adult patients with IPN. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to identify prognostic factors of mortality. We identified 247 consecutive patients with IPN hospitalised between January 2019 and December 2020. History of uncontrolled arterial hypertension (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.135-15.882; aOR 4.245), qSOFA (p = 0.005; 95% CI 1.359-5.879; aOR 2.828), renal failure (p = 0.022; 95% CI 1.138-5.442; aOR 2.489), and haemodynamic failure (p = 0.018; 95% CI 1.184-5.978; aOR 2.661), were identified as independent predictors of mortality in IPN patients. Cholangitis (p = 0.003; 95% CI 1.598-9.930; aOR 3.983), abdominal compartment syndrome (p = 0.032; 95% CI 1.090-6.967; aOR 2.735), and gastrointestinal/intra-abdominal bleeding (p = 0.009; 95% CI 1.286-5.712; aOR 2.710) were independently associated with the risk of mortality. Upfront open surgical necrosectomy was strongly associated with the risk of mortality (p < 0.001; 95% CI 1.912-7.442; aOR 3.772), whereas endoscopic drainage of pancreatic necrosis (p = 0.018; 95% CI 0.138-0.834; aOR 0.339) and enteral nutrition (p = 0.003; 95% CI 0.143-0.716; aOR 0.320) were found as protective factors. Organ failure, acute cholangitis, and upfront open surgical necrosectomy were the most significant predictors of mortality. Our study confirmed that, even in a subgroup of particularly ill patients such as those with IPN, upfront open surgery should be avoided as much as possible. Study protocol registered in ClinicalTrials.Gov (I.D. Number NCT04747990).

A practical means of evaluating the prognosis of acute pancreatitis, as measurement of carotid artery intima-media thickness

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

Factors such as age, obesity, diabetes mellitus and hyperlipidemia that cause adverse prognosis in acute pancreatitis also cause an increase in carotid intima-media thickness. In this study, we aimed to investigate the usability of the measurement of carotid intima-media thickness, which is an easy to apply, cost-effective means of measurement applied to the patients, in predicting AP prognosis, apart from the criteria currently utilized to predict AP prognosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

101 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis were prospectively enrolled into the study. Right and left common carotid artery intima-media thickness, right and left internal carotid artery intima-media thickness were measured with ultrasonographic images performed within the first 24 hours of hospitalization. local or systemic complications and organ failure development were monitored in the follow-up of the patients.

RESULTS

After the ROC analysis was performed and the threshold value was determined. The patients with main and internal carotid artery intima-media thickness above 0.775 mm were seen to have a more severe AP (p = 0.000). Local and systemic complications and organ failure were also more common in these patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Measurement of carotid intima-media thickness is a non-invasive method that can be used to predict the prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis at presentation.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor is an early marker of severe acute pancreatitis based on the revised Atlanta classification

BACKGROUND

Various serum markers for early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have been studied. Serum macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) was reported to be correlated with severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the 1992 Atlanta classification. However, MIF has never been proven to be predictive of disease severity based on the revised Atlanta classification (RAC). The potential predictive value of MIF needs to be further validated.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with AP within 48 h after symptom onset and 10 healthy control volunteers were enrolled prospectively. Serum MIF levels were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The predictive value of MIF, clinical scores and other serum markers were determined.

RESULTS

Among 143 patients with AP, there were 52 (36.4%), 65 (45.5%) and 26 (18.1%) with mild, moderate and severe disease based on the RAC respectively. Compared with healthy volunteers, serum levels of MIF were significantly higher in AP patients, especially those with SAP (P < 0.001). Multivariate regression analysis indicated that increased serum MIF (cut-off 2.30 ng/ml, OR = 3.16, P = 0.008), IL-6 (cut-off 46.8 pg/ml, OR = 1.21, P = 0.043), APACHE II score (cut-off 7.5, OR = 2.57, P = 0.011) and BISAP score (cut-off 1.5, OR = 1.01, P = 0.038) were independent risk factors for predicting SAP (P < 0.05). By using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), MIF (AUC 0.950) demonstrated more excellent discriminative power for predicting SAP than APACHE II (AUC 0.899), BISAP (AUC 0.886), and IL-6 (AUC 0.826).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum MIF is a valuable early marker for predicting the severity of AP based on the RAC.

Acute pancreatitis: an update on the revised Atlanta classification

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the most common gastrointestinal disease resulting in hospitalization in the United States with reports of over 270,000 hospitalizations and costs up to 2.6 billion dollars per year. AP is highly variable in disease course and outcome. Established in 1992, the original Atlanta classification system aimed to categorize the wide spectrum of AP by creating consensus-based terminology for AP types, severity, and complications. Though the original system standardized terminology, certain terms and definitions (i.e. pancreatic abscess) were unclear and often misused. The 2012 revised Atlanta classification (RAC) system updated terms, clarified definitions, and incorporated the medical community's improved understanding of the physiology of AP. The resulting RAC effectively defined the morphologic types of pancreatitis, provided a more standardized system for disease severity grading, further classified the local retroperitoneal complications, and established objective measures to describe this highly variable but common disease. This review provides an update on the recent literature evaluating the RAC, discusses both the strengths and shortcomings of the RAC system (including problematic interobserver agreement), and considers improvements for future classification systems.

Prognostic factors of critical acute pancreatitis: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with critical acute pancreatitis (CAP) have the highest risk of mortality. However, there have been no studies specifically designed to evaluate the prognostic factors of CAP.

AIMS & METHODS

This was a prospective observational cohort study involving patients with CAP. Three aspects including organ failure, (peri)pancreatic necrotic fluid cultures and surgical interventions were analyzed specifically to identify prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Of the 102 consecutive patients with CAP, 83 patients (81.4%) received step-up surgical treatment, the mortality of the step-up group was 25.3% (21/83). 19 patients (18.6%) underwent step-down surgical treatment, the mortality of the step-down group was 57.9% (11/19). Overall mortality in the whole cohort was 31.4% (32/102). Multivariate analysis of death predictors indicated that multiple organ failure (MOF) (OR = 5.3; 95% CI, 1.5-18.2; p = 0.008), long duration (≥5 days) of organ failure (OR = 6.4; 95% CI, 1.2-54.3; p = 0.029), multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) infection (OR = 4.6; 95% CI, 1.3-15.8; p = 0.013), OPN (OR = 3.7; 95% CI, 1.5-8.8; p = 0.004) and step-down surgical treatment (OR = 3.5; 95% CI, 1.2-10.1; p = 0.019) were significant factors.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with CAP, MOF, long duration (≥5 days) of organ failure, MDROs infection, OPN and step-down surgical treatment were identified as the predictors of mortality.

Validation of Modified Determinant-Based Classification of severity for acute pancreatitis in a tertiary teaching hospital

BACKGROUND

The relative merits of two recent classifications of acute pancreatitis severity, the Determinant-Based Classification (DBC) and the Revised Atlanta Classification (RAC), have been debated. A Modified DBC (MDBC) was recently proposed in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. By dividing the DBC 'severe' category into two groups, the MDBC classified non-mild acute pancreatitis into 4 groups rather than 2 in RAC and 3 in DBC. In this study we aim to validate MDBC in both ICU and non-ICU patients and evaluate infected necrosis as a determinant of severity.

METHODS

Prospective data collected on consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary teaching hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were assigned to the categories of severity defined by the DBC, RAC and MDBC. Clinical interventions and outcomes were compared between categories.

RESULTS

A total of 1102 patients were enrolled and the overall mortality was 5.7%. When MDBC was applied, the four Groups were significantly different in regard to ICU admission rates (30%, 40%, 69% and 87%) and mortality (2%, 15%, 40% and 57%). Groups 2 and 3 were different in intervention rates and morbidity, providing evidence that IN is an important determinant of severity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study validates the MDBC proposal to subdivide the DBC 'severe' category into two groups for ICU and non-ICU patients in a tertiary hospital.

The Prognostic Role of Peripheral Lymphocyte Subsets in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic role of peripheral lymphocyte subsets in early stage of acute pancreatitis (AP) is unknown.

METHODS

After enrollment, blood samples were collected in the first 24 hours of the onset of AP in 164 patients. The lymphocyte count and the percentage of CD3⁺, CD3⁺CD4⁺, CD3⁺CD8⁺, CD3^-CD19⁺and CD3^-CD (16 + 56)⁺ cells were assessed.

RESULTS

Reduction of the lymphocyte count and the percentage of CD3⁺CD8⁺ and CD3^-CD (16 + 56)⁺ cells within 24 hours of the onset of AP as well as an increase in the percentage of CD3⁺ and CD3⁺CD4⁺ cells were observed. The percentage of CD3^-CD (16 + 56)⁺ cells had the highest accuracy in prediction of AP severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Marked changes of the percentages of lymphocyte subset were found in peripheral blood in the early stage of AP. The percentage of CD3^-CD (16 + 56)⁺ cells in peripheral blood could be a potent prognostic predictor.

Primary and Secondary Organ Failures Cause Mortality Differentially in Acute Pancreatitis and Should be Distinguished

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to study the development of early and late organ failure (OF) and their differential impact on mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

Consecutive patients (N = 805) with acute pancreatitis were included in an observational study. Organ failure was categorized as primary if it occurred early due to pancreatitis per se and secondary if it occurred late due to infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN). Primary outcome was a relative contribution of primary OF, secondary OF, and IPN to mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 614 patients (mean age, 38.8; standard deviation, 14.6 years; 430 males) in a derivation cohort, 274 (44.6%) developed OF, with 177 having primary OF and 97 secondary OF due to sepsis. Primary OF caused early mortality in 15.8% and was a risk factor for IPN in 76% of patients. Mortality in patients with primary OF and IPN was 49.5% versus 36% in those with IPN and secondary OF (P = 0.06) and 4% in those with IPN but without OF (P < 0.001). The results of the 191 patients in the validation cohort confirmed the relative contribution of primary and secondary OF to mortality.

CONCLUSION

Primary and secondary OF contributed to mortality independently and are distinct in their timing, window of opportunity for intervention, and prognosis.

Novel strategies for the treatment of acute pancreatitis based on the determinants of severity

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disease for which a specific treatment remains elusive. The key determinants of the outcome from AP are persistent organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis. The prevention and treatment of these determinants provides a framework for the development of specific treatment strategies. The gut-lymph concept provides a common mechanism for systemic inflammation and organ dysfunction. Acute and critical illness, including AP, is associated with intestinal ischemia and drastic changes in the composition of gut lymph, which bypasses the liver to drain into the systemic circulation immediately proximal to the major organ systems which fail. The external diversion of gut lymph and the targeting of treatments to counter the toxic elements in gut lymph offers novel approaches to the prevention and treatment of persistent organ failure. Infected pancreatic necrosis is increasingly treated with less invasive techniques, the mainstay of which is drainage, both endoscopic and percutaneous. Further improvements will occur with the strategies to accelerate liquefaction and through a fundamental re-design of drains, both of which will increase drainage efficacy. The determinants of severity and outcome in patients admitted with AP provide the basis for innovative treatment strategies. The priorities are to translate the gut-lymph concept to clinical practice and to improve the design and active use of drains for infected complications of AP.

Severe acute pancreatitis: pathogenesis, diagnosis and surgical management

BACKGROUND

Severe acute pancreatitis is a subtype of acute pancreatitis, associated with multiple organ failure and systemic inflammatory response syndrome. In this qualitative review we looked at the principles of pathogenesis, classification and surgical management of severe acute pancreatitis. We also looked at the current shift in paradigm in the management of severe acute pancreatitis since the guideline developed by the British Society of Gastroenterology.

DATA SOURCES

Studies published between 1st January 1991 and 31st December 2015 were identified with PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Google Scholar online search engines using the following Medical Subject Headings: "acute pancreatitis, necrosis, mortality, pathogenesis, incidence" and the terms "open necrosectomy and minimally invasive necrosectomy". The National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) Guidelines were also included in our study. Inclusion criteria for our clinical review included established guidelines, randomized controlled trials and non-randomized controlled trials with a follow-up duration of more than 6 weeks.

RESULTS

The incidence of severe acute pancreatitis within the UK is significantly rising and pathogenetic theories are still controversial. In developed countries, the most common cause is biliary calculi. The British Society of Gastroenterology, acknowledges the Revised Atlanta criteria for prediction of severity. A newer Determinant-based system has been developed. The principle of surgical management of acute necrotizing pancreatitis requires intensive care management, identifying infection and if indicated, debridement of any infected necrotic area. The current procedures opted for include standard surgical open necrosectomy, endoscopic necrosectomy and minimally invasive necrosectomy. The current paradigm is shifting towards a step-up approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe acute pancreatitis is still a subject of grey areas in its surgical management even though new studies have been recorded since the origin of the latest UK guidelines for management of severe acute pancreatitis.

Revised Atlanta classification and determinant-based classification: Which one better at stratifying outcomes of patients with acute pancreatitis?

BACGROUND

Two different severity classifications (revised Atlanta classification [RAC] and determinant-based classification [DBC]) were recently proposed.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of a prospective acute pancreatitis (AP) database. This study aims to compare the ability of three classification systems (RAC, DBC, and original Atlanta classification [OAC]) to stratify outcomes of AP and to determine the association between different severity categories and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Overall, as the grade of severity increased, the morbidity and mortality increased accordingly in the three classification systems. The RAC and DBC were comparable, but performed better than OAC in predicting mortality (AUC 0.92 and 0.95 vs. 0.66, p < 0.001), ICU admission (AUC 0.92 and 0.96 vs. 0.68, p < 0.001), ICU LOS (AUC 0.73 and 0.76 vs. 0.50, p < 0.001), and hospital stay (AUC 0.81 and 0.83 vs. 0.70, p < 0.001). The DBC performed better than the RAC and OAC in predicting the need for intervention (AUC 0.87 vs. 0.79 and 0.68, p < 0.05). The mortality rate in patients with critical DBC category was higher than that in those with severe RAC category (42.1% vs. 24.7%; p = 0.008). POF (OR 19.4, p = 0.001) and IN (OR 11.0, p = 0.025) were independent risk factors for mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In tertiary referral setting, patients in the critical category are at the greatest risk for death and should be managed in an intensive care unit. Although IN itself may be less influential on mortality than POF, IN as well as POF should be considered as the key determinants for severity stratification.

Comparison Between Revised Atlanta Classification and Determinant-Based Classification for Acute Pancreatitis in Intensive Care Medicine. Why Do Not Use a Modified Determinant-Based Classification?

OBJECTIVE

To compare the classification performance of the Revised Atlanta Classification, the Determinant-Based Classification, and a new modified Determinant-Based Classification according to observed mortality and morbidity.

DESIGN

A prospective multicenter observational study conducted in 1-year period.

SETTING

Forty-six international ICUs (Epidemiology of Acute Pancreatitis in Intensive Care Medicine study).

PATIENTS

Admitted to an ICU with acute pancreatitis and at least one organ failure.

INTERVENTIONS

Modified Determinant-Based Classification included four categories: In group 1, patients with transient organ failure and without local complications; in group 2, patients with transient organ failure and local complications; in group 3, patients with persistent organ failure and without local complications; and in group 4, patients with persistent organ failure and local complications.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 374 patients were included (mortality rate of 28.9%). When modified Determinant-Based Classification was applied, patients in group 1 presented low mortality (2.26%) and morbidity (5.38%), patients in group 2 presented low mortality (6.67%) and high morbidity (60.71%), patients in group 3 presented high mortality (41.46%) and low morbidity (8.33%), and patients in group 4 presented high mortality (59.09%) and morbidity (88.89%). The area under the receiver operator characteristics curve of modified Determinant-Based Classification for mortality was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85), with significant differences in comparison to Revised Atlanta Classification (0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.81; p < 0.01), and Determinant-Based Classification (0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.81; p < 0.01). For morbidity, the area under the curve of modified Determinant-Based Classification was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73-0.86), with significant differences in comparison to Revised Atlanta Classification (0.63, 95% CI, 0.57-0.70; p < 0.01), but not in comparison to Determinant-Based Classification (0.81, 95% CI, 0.74-0.88; nonsignificant).

CONCLUSION

Modified Determinant-Based Classification identified four groups with different clinical presentation in patients with acute pancreatitis in ICU, with better discriminatory power in comparison to Determinant-Based Classification and Revised Atlanta Classification.

Clinical update on fluid therapy and nutritional support in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The aim of this focused review is to provide a valuable and updated source of information for clinical practice on fluid therapy (FT) and nutritional support in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

The review encompasses important new clinical information that has become available for understanding and offering these specific treatments since the 2013 publication of two guidelines, both the joint International Association of Pancreatology and American Pancreatic Association and the American College of Gastroenterology. The 2015 Revised Japanese Guideline is discussed selectively. To this end, the review is divided into 7 sections, including timing and cause of mortality; severity classification systems; predicting severity; response to treatment; nutritional support; fluid therapy and steps for further research.

CONCLUSIONS

In mild AP, begin oral feeding when nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain are improving. In (predicted) severe AP, feeding decisions should commence by 72 h, offering oral feeding if GI symptoms improve or enteral feeding if patients are symptomatic and/or intolerant to orals. All patients should be offered goal-directed FT during the first 6-12 h of presentation. Cautious FT is advised in those age >55 years or with preexisting organ failure or predictors of developing fluid sequestration.