Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

A probabilistic modeling framework for the prediction of spontaneous premature beats and reentry initiation

BACKGROUND

Spontaneously occurring life-threatening reentrant arrhythmias result when a propagating premature beat encounters a region with significant dispersion of refractoriness. Although localized structural tissue heterogeneities and prescribed cell functional gradients have been incorporated into computational electrophysiologic models, a quantitative framework for the evolution from normal to abnormal behavior that occurs by disease is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to develop a probabilistic modeling framework representing the complex interplay of cell function and tissue structure in health and disease that predicts the emergence of premature beats and the initiation of reentry.

METHODS

An action potential model of the rabbit was developed with data-driven uncertainty characterization as done previously. A novel tissue model using the discrete-cell monodomain equations was developed by implementing cellular uncertainty as a random spatial field.

RESULTS

Cellular action potentials exhibited a wide range of duration and even a variety of behaviors, with 67% exhibiting normal repolarization, 27% displaying early afterdepolarizations, and 6% showing repolarization failure. Nevertheless, simulations in tissue resulted in localized synchronized repolarization. Thus, cellular variability provided "tissue-level robustness," and premature beats and reentry induction were never observed even with abnormalities in cell function (IKr block) or tissue structure (increased tissue resistance). Alterations of both cell function and tissue structure were necessary for the generation of premature beats and arrhythmia initiation.

CONCLUSION

Once extended to whole hearts and validated for a specific context, this modeling framework provides a means to predict the probability of the initiation of life-threatening arrhythmias.

Reconstructing ventricular cardiomyocyte dynamics and parameter estimation using data assimilation

Cardiac ventricular myocyte action potential dynamics are regulated by intricate and nonlinear interactions between the cell transmembrane potential and ionic currents and concentrations. Present technology limits the ability to measure transmembrane potential and multiple ionic currents simultaneously, which narrows the scope of experiments to provide a complete snapshot of the cardiac myocyte state. This limitation presents an obstacle for understanding how perturbations can trigger arrhythmias and more broadly how the myocyte responds to different conditions, such as changes in pacing rate or responses to drug treatment. In this study, we demonstrate that a data-assimilation approach can successfully reconstruct and predict the dynamics of a heterogeneous virtual cardiac ventricular myocyte population in the presence of parameter uncertainty. A population of heterogeneous cardiac ventricular myocytes is generated by varying ionic current conductance parameters, and additional observational uncertainty is mimicked by the addition of Gaussian noise to the transmembrane potential. We demonstrate that the data-assimilation approach accurately reconstructs transmembrane potential, with error less than the magnitude of the noise. Further, the data-assimilation approach successfully estimates the conductances of ionic currents generally with high accuracy and requiring low computational time. As a proof of concept, we apply the data-assimilation approach to reconstruct action potential dynamics from optical mapping experiments in an ex vivo isolated guinea pig heart. Critically, we demonstrate that the ionic conductance parameters estimated from a recording at one pacing frequency can accurately predict action potential dynamics at different rates.

Inferring Parameters of Pyramidal Neuron Excitability in Mouse Models of Alzheimer's Disease Using Biophysical Modeling and Deep Learning

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is believed to occur when abnormal amounts of the proteins amyloid beta and tau aggregate in the brain, resulting in a progressive loss of neuronal function. Hippocampal neurons in transgenic mice with amyloidopathy or tauopathy exhibit altered intrinsic excitability properties. We used deep hybrid modeling (DeepHM), a recently developed parameter inference technique that combines deep learning with biophysical modeling, to map experimental data recorded from hippocampal CA1 neurons in transgenic AD mice and age-matched wildtype littermate controls to the parameter space of a conductance-based CA1 model. Although mechanistic modeling and machine learning methods are by themselves powerful tools for approximating biological systems and making accurate predictions from data, when used in isolation these approaches suffer from distinct shortcomings: model and parameter uncertainty limit mechanistic modeling, whereas machine learning methods disregard the underlying biophysical mechanisms. DeepHM addresses these shortcomings by using conditional generative adversarial networks to provide an inverse mapping of data to mechanistic models that identifies the distributions of mechanistic modeling parameters coherent to the data. Here, we demonstrated that DeepHM accurately infers parameter distributions of the conductance-based model on several test cases using synthetic data generated with complex underlying parameter structures. We then used DeepHM to estimate parameter distributions corresponding to the experimental data and infer which ion channels are altered in the Alzheimer's mouse models compared to their wildtype controls at 12 and 24 months. We found that the conductances most disrupted by tauopathy, amyloidopathy, and aging are delayed rectifier potassium, transient sodium, and hyperpolarization-activated potassium, respectively.

Uncertainty assessment of proarrhythmia predictions derived from multi-level in silico models

In silico methods can be used for an early assessment of arrhythmogenic properties of drug candidates. However, their use for decision-making is conditioned by the possibility to estimate the predictions' uncertainty. This work describes our efforts to develop uncertainty quantification methods for the predictions produced by multi-level proarrhythmia models. In silico models used in this field usually start with experimental or predicted IC50 values that describe drug-induced ion channel blockade. Using such inputs, an electrophysiological model computes how the ion channel inhibition, exerted by a drug in a certain concentration, translates to an altered shape and duration of the action potential in cardiac cells, which can be represented as arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers such as the APD90. Using this framework, we identify the main sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and propose a method based on probabilistic simulations that replaces single-point estimates predicted using multiple input values, including the IC50s and the electrophysiological parameters, by distributions of values. Two selected variability types associated with these inputs are then propagated through the multi-level model to estimate their impact on the uncertainty levels in the output, expressed by means of intervals. The proposed approach yields single predictions of arrhythmogenic risk biomarkers together with value intervals, providing a more comprehensive and realistic description of drug effects on a human population. The methodology was tested by predicting arrhythmogenic biomarkers on a series of twelve well-characterised marketed drugs, belonging to different arrhythmogenic risk classes.

Improving the hERG model fitting using a deep learning-based method

The hERG channel is one of the essential ion channels composing the cardiac action potential and the toxicity assay for new drug. Recently, the comprehensive in vitro proarrhythmia assay (CiPA) was adopted for cardiac toxicity evaluation. One of the hurdles for this protocol is identifying the kinetic effect of the new drug on the hERG channel. This procedure included the model-based parameter identification from the experiments. There are many mathematical methods to infer the parameters; however, there are two main difficulties in fitting parameters. The first is that, depending on the data and model, parametric inference can be highly time-consuming. The second is that the fitting can fail due to local minima problems. The simplest and most effective way to solve these issues is to provide an appropriate initial value. In this study, we propose a deep learning-based method for improving model fitting by providing appropriate initial values, even the right answer. We generated the dataset by changing the model parameters and trained our deep learning-based model. To improve the accuracy, we used the spectrogram with time, frequency, and amplitude. We obtained the experimental dataset from https://github.com/CardiacModelling/hERGRapidCharacterisation. Then, we trained the deep-learning model using the data generated with the hERG model and tested the validity of the deep-learning model with the experimental data. We successfully identified the initial value, significantly improved the fitting speed, and avoided fitting failure. This method is useful when the model is fixed and reflects the real data, and it can be applied to any in silico model for various purposes, such as new drug development, toxicity identification, environmental effect, etc. This method will significantly reduce the time and effort to analyze the data.

Bayesian inference for fitting cardiac models to experiments: estimating parameter distributions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and approximate Bayesian computation

Customization of cardiac action potential models has become increasingly important with the recognition of patient-specific models and virtual patient cohorts as valuable predictive tools. Nevertheless, developing customized models by fitting parameters to data poses technical and methodological challenges: despite noise and variability associated with real-world datasets, traditional optimization methods produce a single "best-fit" set of parameter values. Bayesian estimation methods seek distributions of parameter values given the data by obtaining samples from the target distribution, but in practice widely known Bayesian algorithms like Markov chain Monte Carlo tend to be computationally inefficient and scale poorly with the dimensionality of parameter space. In this paper, we consider two computationally efficient Bayesian approaches: the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm and the approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) algorithm. We find that both methods successfully identify distributions of model parameters for two cardiac action potential models using model-derived synthetic data and an experimental dataset from a zebrafish heart. Although both methods appear to converge to the same distribution family and are computationally efficient, HMC generally finds narrower marginal distributions, while ABC-SMC is less sensitive to the algorithmic settings including the prior distribution.

Personalized Medicine for the Critically Ill Patient: A Narrative Review

Personalized Medicine (PM) is rapidly advancing in everyday medical practice. Technological advances allow researchers to reach patients more than ever with their discoveries. The critically ill patient is probably the most complex of all, and personalized medicine must make serious efforts to fulfill the desire to “treat the individual, not the disease”. The complexity of critically ill pathologies arises from the severe state these patients and from the deranged pathways of their diseases. PM constitutes the integration of basic research into clinical practice; however, to make this possible complex and voluminous data require processing through even more complex mathematical models. The result of processing biodata is a digitized individual, from which fragments of information can be extracted for specific purposes. With this review, we aim to describe the current state of PM technologies and methods and explore its application in critically ill patients, as well as some of the challenges associated with PM in intensive care from the perspective of economic, approval, and ethical issues. This review can help in understanding the complexity of, P.M.; the complex processes needed for its application in critically ill patients, the benefits that make the effort of implementation worthwhile, and the current challenges of PM.

Data-Driven Uncertainty Quantification for Cardiac Electrophysiological Models: Impact of Physiological Variability on Action Potential and Spiral Wave Dynamics

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology (EP) has recently transitioned from a scientific research tool to clinical applications. To ensure reliability of clinical or regulatory decisions made using cardiac EP models, it is vital to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions. Model predictions are uncertain because there is typically substantial uncertainty in model input parameters, due to measurement error or natural variability. While there has been much recent uncertainty quantification (UQ) research for cardiac EP models, all previous work has been limited by either: (i) considering uncertainty in only a subset of the full set of parameters; and/or (ii) assigning arbitrary variation to parameters (e.g., ±10 or 50% around mean value) rather than basing the parameter uncertainty on experimental data. In our recent work we overcame the first limitation by performing UQ and sensitivity analysis using a novel canine action potential model, allowing all parameters to be uncertain, but with arbitrary variation. Here, we address the second limitation by extending our previous work to use data-driven estimates of parameter uncertainty. Overall, we estimated uncertainty due to population variability in all parameters in five currents active during repolarization: inward potassium rectifier, transient outward potassium, L-type calcium, rapidly and slowly activating delayed potassium rectifier; 25 parameters in total (all model parameters except fast sodium current parameters). A variety of methods was used to estimate the variability in these parameters. We then propagated the uncertainties through the model to determine their impact on predictions of action potential shape, action potential duration (APD) prolongation due to drug block, and spiral wave dynamics. Parameter uncertainty had a significant effect on model predictions, especially L-type calcium current parameters. Correlation between physiological parameters was determined to play a role in physiological realism of action potentials. Surprisingly, even model outputs that were relative differences, specifically drug-induced APD prolongation, were heavily impacted by the underlying uncertainty. This is the first data-driven end-to-end UQ analysis in cardiac EP accounting for uncertainty in the vast majority of parameters, including first in tissue, and demonstrates how future UQ could be used to ensure model-based decisions are robust to all underlying parameter uncertainties.

Sensitivity analysis of an electrophysiology model for the left ventricle

Modelling the cardiac electrophysiology entails dealing with the uncertainties related to the input parameters such as the heart geometry and the electrical conductivities of the tissues, thus calling for an uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the results. Since the chambers of the heart have different shapes and tissues, in order to make the problem affordable, here we focus on the left ventricle with the aim of identifying which of the uncertain inputs mostly affect its electrophysiology. In a first phase, the uncertainty of the input parameters is evaluated using data available from the literature and the output quantities of interest (QoIs) of the problem are defined. According to the polynomial chaos expansion, a training dataset is then created by sampling the parameter space using a quasi-Monte Carlo method whereas a smaller independent dataset is used for the validation of the resulting metamodel. The latter is exploited to run a global sensitivity analysis with nonlinear variance-based indices and thus reduce the input parameter space accordingly. Thereafter, the uncertainty probability distribution of the QoIs are evaluated using a direct UQ strategy on a larger dataset and the results discussed in the light of the medical knowledge.

Calibration of ionic and cellular cardiac electrophysiology models

Cardiac electrophysiology models are among the most mature and well-studied mathematical models of biological systems. This maturity is bringing new challenges as models are being used increasingly to make quantitative rather than qualitative predictions. As such, calibrating the parameters within ion current and action potential (AP) models to experimental data sets is a crucial step in constructing a predictive model. This review highlights some of the fundamental concepts in cardiac model calibration and is intended to be readily understood by computational and mathematical modelers working in other fields of biology. We discuss the classic and latest approaches to calibration in the electrophysiology field, at both the ion channel and cellular AP scales. We end with a discussion of the many challenges that work to date has raised and the need for reproducible descriptions of the calibration process to enable models to be recalibrated to new data sets and built upon for new studies. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Physiology > Mammalian Physiology in Health and Disease Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Cellular Models.

Sensitivity of a data-assimilation system for reconstructing three-dimensional cardiac electrical dynamics

Modelling of cardiac electrical behaviour has led to important mechanistic insights, but important challenges, including uncertainty in model formulations and parameter values, make it difficult to obtain quantitatively accurate results. An alternative approach is combining models with observations from experiments to produce a data-informed reconstruction of system states over time. Here, we extend our earlier data-assimilation studies using an ensemble Kalman filter to reconstruct a three-dimensional time series of states with complex spatio-temporal dynamics using only surface observations of voltage. We consider the effects of several algorithmic and model parameters on the accuracy of reconstructions of known scroll-wave truth states using synthetic observations. In particular, we study the algorithm's sensitivity to parameters governing different parts of the process and its robustness to several model-error conditions. We find that the algorithm can achieve an acceptable level of error in many cases, with the weakest performance occurring for model-error cases and more extreme parameter regimes with more complex dynamics. Analysis of the poorest-performing cases indicates an initial decrease in error followed by an increase when the ensemble spread is reduced. Our results suggest avenues for further improvement through increasing ensemble spread by incorporating additive inflation or using a parameter or multi-model ensemble. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance. We conclude by highlighting important challenges that continue to face the cardiac modelling community, identifying open questions, and making recommendations for future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Accounting for variability in ion current recordings using a mathematical model of artefacts in voltage-clamp experiments

Mathematical models of ion channels, which constitute indispensable components of action potential models, are commonly constructed by fitting to whole-cell patch-clamp data. In a previous study, we fitted cell-specific models to hERG1a (Kv11.1) recordings simultaneously measured using an automated high-throughput system, and studied cell-cell variability by inspecting the resulting model parameters. However, the origin of the observed variability was not identified. Here, we study the source of variability by constructing a model that describes not just ion current dynamics, but the entire voltage-clamp experiment. The experimental artefact components of the model include: series resistance, membrane and pipette capacitance, voltage offsets, imperfect compensations made by the amplifier for these phenomena, and leak current. In this model, variability in the observations can be explained by either cell properties, measurement artefacts, or both. Remarkably, by assuming that variability arises exclusively from measurement artefacts, it is possible to explain a larger amount of the observed variability than when assuming cell-specific ion current kinetics. This assumption also leads to a smaller number of model parameters. This result suggests that most of the observed variability in patch-clamp data measured under the same conditions is caused by experimental artefacts, and hence can be compensated for in post-processing by using our model for the patch-clamp experiment. This study has implications for the question of the extent to which cell-cell variability in ion channel kinetics exists, and opens up routes for better correction of artefacts in patch-clamp data. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Modeling and processing up-to-dateness of patient information in probabilistic therapy decision support

OBJECTIVES

Probabilistic modeling of a patient's situation with the goal of providing calculated therapy recommendations can improve the decision making of interdisciplinary teams. Relevant information entities and direct causal dependencies, as well as uncertainty, must be formally described. Possible therapy options, tailored to the patient, can be inferred from the clinical data using these descriptions. However, there are several avoidable factors of uncertainty influencing the accuracy of the inference. For instance, inaccuracy may emerge from outdated information. In general, probabilistic models, e.g. Bayesian Networks can depict the causality and relations of individual information entities, but in general cannot evaluate individual entities concerning their up-to-dateness. The goal of the work at hand is to model diagnostic up-to-dateness, which can reasonably adjust the influence of outdated diagnostic information to improve the inference results of clinical decision models.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

We analyzed 68 laryngeal cancer cases and modeled the state of up-to-dateness of different diagnostic modalities. All cases were used for cross-validation. 55 cases were used to train the model, 13 for testing. Each diagnostic procedure involved in the decision making process of these cases was associated with a specific threshold for the time the information is considered up-to-date, i.e. reliable. Based on this threshold, outdated findings could be identified and their impact on probabilistic calculations could be reduced. We applied the model for reducing the weight of outdated patient data in the computation of TNM stagings for the 13 test cases and compared the results to the manually derived TNM stagings in the patient files.

RESULTS

With the implementation of these weights in the laryngeal cancer model, we increased the accuracy of the TNM calculation from 0.61 (8 out of 13 cases correct) to 0.76 (10 out of 13 cases correct).

CONCLUSION

Decision delay may cause specific patient data to be outdated. This can cause contradictory or false information and impair calculations for clinical decision support. Our approach demonstrates that the accuracy of Bayesian Network models can be improved when pre-processing the patient-specific data and evaluating their up-to-dateness with reduced weights on outdated information.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two Human Atrial Cardiac Cell Models Using Gaussian Process Emulators

Biophysically detailed cardiac cell models reconstruct the action potential and calcium dynamics of cardiac myocytes. They aim to capture the biophysics of current flow through ion channels, pumps, and exchangers in the cell membrane, and are highly detailed. However, the relationship between model parameters and model outputs is difficult to establish because the models are both complex and non-linear. The consequences of uncertainty and variability in model parameters are therefore difficult to determine without undertaking large numbers of model evaluations. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate how sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using Gaussian process emulators can be used for a systematic and quantitive analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models. We selected the Courtemanche and Maleckar models of the human atrial action potential for analysis because these models describe a similar set of currents, with different formulations. In our approach Gaussian processes emulate the main features of the action potential and calcium transient. The emulators were trained with a set of design data comprising samples from parameter space and corresponding model outputs, initially obtained from 300 model evaluations. Variance based sensitivity indices were calculated using the emulators, and first order and total effect indices were calculated for each combination of parameter and output. The differences between the first order and total effect indices indicated that the effect of interactions between parameters was small. A second set of emulators were then trained using a new set of design data with a subset of the model parameters with a sensitivity index of more than 0.1 (10%). This second stage analysis enabled comparison of mechanisms in the two models. The second stage sensitivity indices enabled the relationship between the L-type Ca 2+ current and the action potential plateau to be quantified in each model. Our quantitative analysis predicted that changes in maximum conductance of the ultra-rapid K + channel I Kur would have opposite effects on action potential duration in the two models, and this prediction was confirmed by additional simulations. This study has demonstrated that Gaussian process emulators are an effective tool for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of biophysically detailed cardiac cell models.

General Principles for the Validation of Proarrhythmia Risk Prediction Models: An Extension of the CiPA In Silico Strategy

This white paper presents principles for validating proarrhythmia risk prediction models for regulatory use as discussed at the In Silico Breakout Session of a Cardiac Safety Research Consortium/Health and Environmental Sciences Institute/US Food and Drug Administration-sponsored Think Tank Meeting on May 22, 2018. The meeting was convened to evaluate the progress in the development of a new cardiac safety paradigm, the Comprehensive in Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA). The opinions regarding these principles reflect the collective views of those who participated in the discussion of this topic both at and after the breakout session. Although primarily discussed in the context of in silico models, these principles describe the interface between experimental input and model-based interpretation and are intended to be general enough to be applied to other types of nonclinical models for proarrhythmia assessment. This document was developed with the intention of providing a foundation for more consistency and harmonization in developing and validating different models for proarrhythmia risk prediction using the example of the CiPA paradigm.

Rapid Characterization of hERG Channel Kinetics I: Using an Automated High-Throughput System

Predicting how pharmaceuticals may affect heart rhythm is a crucial step in drug development and requires a deep understanding of a compound’s action on ion channels. In vitro hERG channel current recordings are an important step in evaluating the proarrhythmic potential of small molecules and are now routinely performed using automated high-throughput patch-clamp platforms. These machines can execute traditional voltage-clamp protocols aimed at specific gating processes, but the array of protocols needed to fully characterize a current is typically too long to be applied in a single cell. Shorter high-information protocols have recently been introduced that have this capability, but they are not typically compatible with high-throughput platforms. We present a new 15 second protocol to characterize hERG (Kv11.1) kinetics, suitable for both manual and high-throughput systems. We demonstrate its use on the Nanion SyncroPatch 384PE, a 384-well automated patch-clamp platform, by applying it to Chinese hamster ovary cells stably expressing hERG1a. From these recordings, we construct 124 cell-specific variants/parameterizations of a hERG model at 25°C. A further eight independent protocols are run in each cell and are used to validate the model predictions. We then combine the experimental recordings using a hierarchical Bayesian model, which we use to quantify the uncertainty in the model parameters, and their variability from cell-to-cell; we use this model to suggest reasons for the variability. This study demonstrates a robust method to measure and quantify uncertainty and shows that it is possible and practical to use high-throughput systems to capture full hERG channel kinetics quantitatively and rapidly.

Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Cardiac Action Potential Models

Recent efforts to ensure the reliability of computational model-based predictions in healthcare, such as the ASME V&V40 Standard, emphasize the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) when evaluating computational models. UQ involves empirically determining the uncertainty in model inputs-typically resulting from natural variability or measurement error-and then calculating the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. SA involves calculating how uncertainty in model outputs can be apportioned to input uncertainty. Rigorous comprehensive UQ/SA provides confidence that model-based decisions are robust to underlying uncertainties. However, comprehensive UQ/SA is not currently feasible for whole heart models, due to numerous factors including model complexity and difficulty in measuring variability in the many parameters. Here, we present a significant step to developing a framework to overcome these limitations. We: (i) developed a novel action potential (AP) model of moderate complexity (six currents, seven variables, 36 parameters); (ii) prescribed input variability for all parameters (not empirically derived); (iii) used a single "hyper-parameter" to study increasing levels of parameter uncertainty; (iv) performed UQ and SA for a range of model-derived quantities with physiological relevance; and (v) present quantitative and qualitative ways to analyze different behaviors that occur under parameter uncertainty, including "model failure". This is the first time uncertainty in every parameter (including conductances, steady-state parameters, and time constant parameters) of every ionic current in a cardiac model has been studied. This approach allowed us to demonstrate that, for this model, the simulated AP is fully robust to low levels of parameter uncertainty - to our knowledge the first time this has been shown of any cardiac model. A range of dynamics was observed at larger parameter uncertainty (e.g., oscillatory dynamics); analysis revealed that five parameters were highly influential in these dynamics. Overall, we demonstrate feasibility of performing comprehensive UQ/SA for cardiac cell models and demonstrate how to assess robustness and overcome model failure when performing cardiac UQ analyses. The approach presented here represents an important and significant step toward the development of model-based clinical tools which are demonstrably robust to all underlying uncertainties and therefore more reliable in safety-critical decision-making.

Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Models for a New International Cardiac Safety Regulatory Paradigm: An Overview of the Comprehensive In Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay In Silico Modeling Approach

As a relatively new discipline, quantitative systems pharmacology has seen a significant increase in the application and utility of drug development. One area that could greatly benefit from such an approach is in the proarrhythmia assessment of new drugs. The Comprehensive In Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) Initiative is a global public-private partnership project that has developed an integrated approach using mechanistic in silico models for proarrhythmia risk prediction. Progress to date has led to the formation of the International Council on Harmonisation Implementation Working Group to revise regulatory guidelines via the Questions-and-Answers process to address the best practices for proarrhythmia models and how they can impact clinical drug development. This article reviews the CiPA in silico model-development process, focusing on its unique development and validation strategy, and summarizes the lessons learned as consideration points for the ongoing implementation of CiPA-like in silico models in drug development.

Introduction to in silico model for proarrhythmic risk assessment under the CiPA initiative

In 2005, the International Council for Harmonization (ICH) established cardiotoxicity assessment guidelines to identify the risk of Torsade de Pointes (TdP). It is focused on the blockade of the human ether-à-go-go-related gene (hERG) channel known to cause QT/QTc prolongation and the QT/QTc prolongation shown on the electrocardiogram. However, these biomarkers are not the direct risks of TdP with low specificity as the action potential is influenced by multiple channels along with the hERG channel. Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) initiative emerged to address limitations of the current model. The objective of CiPA is to develop a standardized in silico model of a human ventricular cell to quantitively evaluate the cardiac response for the cardiac toxicity risk and to come up with a metric for the TdP risk assessment. In silico working group under CiPA developed a standardized and reliable in silico model and a metric that can quantitatively evaluate cellular cardiac electrophysiologic activity. The implementation mainly consists of hERG fitting, Hill fitting, and action potential simulation. In this review, we explained how the in silico model of CiPA works, and briefly summarized current overall CiPA studies. We hope this review helps clinical pharmacologists to understand the underlying estimation process of CiPA in silico modeling.

Computational models in cardiology

The treatment of individual patients in cardiology practice increasingly relies on advanced imaging, genetic screening and devices. As the amount of imaging and other diagnostic data increases, paralleled by the greater capacity to personalize treatment, the difficulty of using the full array of measurements of a patient to determine an optimal treatment seems also to be paradoxically increasing. Computational models are progressively addressing this issue by providing a common framework for integrating multiple data sets from individual patients. These models, which are based on physiology and physics rather than on population statistics, enable computational simulations to reveal diagnostic information that would have otherwise remained concealed and to predict treatment outcomes for individual patients. The inherent need for patient-specific models in cardiology is clear and is driving the rapid development of tools and techniques for creating personalized methods to guide pharmaceutical therapy, deployment of devices and surgical interventions.

Propagation of Parametric Uncertainty in Aliev-Panfilov Model of Cardiac Excitation

Models of cardiac electrophysiology are useful for studying heart functions and cardiac disease mechanisms. However, cardiac models often have a great level of complexity, and it is often computationally prohibitive to simulate tissue and organ activities in a real-time fashion. To address the challenge, simplified models such as Aliev-Panfilov model are developed to reduce model complexity, while providing necessary details of cardiac functions. Simplified models may induce uncertainty, which can deteriorate the accuracy and reliability of cardiac models. In addition, model parameters are calibrated with noisy data and cannot be known with certainty. It is important to assess the effect of parametric uncertainty on model predictions. For the probabilistic, time-invariant parametric uncertainty, a generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion-based method is presented in this work to quantify and propagate uncertainty onto model predictions. Using gPC, a measure of confidence in model predictions can be quickly estimated. As compared with sampling-based uncertainty propagation techniques, e.g., Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, the gPC-based method in this work shows its advantages in terms of computational efficiency and accuracy, which has the potentials for dealing with complicated cardiac models, e.g., 2D tissue and 3D organ models.

Generalized polynomial chaos-based uncertainty quantification and propagation in multi-scale modeling of cardiac electrophysiology

Uncertainty and physiological variability are ubiquitous in cardiac electrical signaling. It is important to address the uncertainty and variability in cardiac modeling to provide reliable and realistic predictions of heart function, thus ensuring trustworthy computer-aided medical decision-making and treatment planning. Statistical techniques such as Monte Carlo (MC) simulations have been applied to uncertainty quantification and propagation in cardiac modeling. However, MC simulation-based methods are computationally prohibitive for complex cardiac models with a great number of parameters and governing equations. In this paper, we propose to use the Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion in combination with Galerkin projection to analytically quantify parametric uncertainty in ion channel models of mouse ventricular cell, and further propagate the uncertainty across different organizational levels of cell and tissue. To identify the most significant parametric uncertainty in cardiac ion channel and cell models, variance decomposition-based sensitivity analysis was first performed. Following this, gPC was integrated with deterministic cardiac models to propagate uncertainty through ion current, ventricular cell, 1D cable, and 2D tissue to account for the stochasticity and cell-to-cell variability. As compared to MC, the gPC in this work shows the superior performance in terms of computational efficiency. In addition, the gPC models can provide a measure of confidence in model predictions, which can improve the reliability of computer simulations of cardiac electrophysiology for clinical applications.

Computational Modeling of Electrophysiology and Pharmacotherapy of Atrial Fibrillation: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

The pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) is broad, with components related to the unique and diverse cellular electrophysiology of atrial myocytes, structural complexity, and heterogeneity of atrial tissue, and pronounced disease-associated remodeling of both cells and tissue. A major challenge for rational design of AF therapy, particularly pharmacotherapy, is integrating these multiscale characteristics to identify approaches that are both efficacious and independent of ventricular contraindications. Computational modeling has long been touted as a basis for achieving such integration in a rapid, economical, and scalable manner. However, computational pipelines for AF-specific drug screening are in their infancy, and while the field is progressing quite rapidly, major challenges remain before computational approaches can fill the role of workhorse in rational design of AF pharmacotherapies. In this review, we briefly detail the unique aspects of AF pathophysiology that determine requirements for compounds targeting AF rhythm control, with emphasis on delimiting mechanisms that promote AF triggers from those providing substrate or supporting reentry. We then describe modeling approaches that have been used to assess the outcomes of drugs acting on established AF targets, as well as on novel promising targets including the ultra-rapidly activating delayed rectifier potassium current, the acetylcholine-activated potassium current and the small conductance calcium-activated potassium channel. Finally, we describe how heterogeneity and variability are being incorporated into AF-specific models, and how these approaches are yielding novel insights into the basic physiology of disease, as well as aiding identification of the important molecular players in the complex AF etiology.

Slow Recovery of Excitability Increases Ventricular Fibrillation Risk as Identified by Emulation

Purpose: Rotor stability and meandering are key mechanisms determining and sustaining cardiac fibrillation, with important implications for anti-arrhythmic drug development. However, little is yet known on how rotor dynamics are modulated by variability in cellular electrophysiology, particularly on kinetic properties of ion channel recovery.

Methods: We propose a novel emulation approach, based on Gaussian process regression augmented with machine learning, for data enrichment, automatic detection, classification, and analysis of re-entrant biomarkers in cardiac tissue. More than 5,000 monodomain simulations of long-lasting arrhythmic episodes with Fenton-Karma ionic dynamics, further enriched by emulation to 80 million electrophysiological scenarios, were conducted to investigate the role of variability in ion channel densities and kinetics in modulating rotor-driven arrhythmic behavior.

Results: Our methods predicted the class of excitation behavior with classification accuracy up to 96%, and emulation effectively predicted frequency, stability, and spatial biomarkers of functional re-entry. We demonstrate that the excitation wavelength interpretation of re-entrant behavior hides critical information about rotor persistence and devolution into fibrillation. In particular, whereas action potential duration directly modulates rotor frequency and meandering, critical windows of excitability are identified as the main determinants of breakup. Further novel electrophysiological insights of particular relevance for ventricular arrhythmias arise from our multivariate analysis, including the role of incomplete activation of slow inward currents in mediating tissue rate-dependence and dispersion of repolarization, and the emergence of slow recovery of excitability as a significant promoter of this mechanism of dispersion and increased arrhythmic risk.

Conclusions: Our results mechanistically explain pro-arrhythmic effects of class Ic anti-arrhythmics in the ventricles despite their established role in the pharmacological management of atrial fibrillation. This is mediated by their slow recovery of excitability mode of action, promoting incomplete activation of slow inward currents and therefore increased dispersion of repolarization, given the larger influence of these currents in modulating the action potential in the ventricles compared to the atria. These results exemplify the potential of emulation techniques in elucidating novel mechanisms of arrhythmia and further application to cardiac electrophysiology.

Fitting two human atrial cell models to experimental data using Bayesian history matching

Cardiac cell models are potentially valuable tools for applications such as quantitative safety pharmacology, but have many parameters. Action potentials in real cardiac cells also vary from beat to beat, and from one cell to another. Calibrating cardiac cell models to experimental observations is difficult, because the parameter space is large and high-dimensional. In this study we have demonstrated the use of history matching to calibrate the maximum conductance of ion channels and exchangers in two detailed models of the human atrial action potential against measurements of action potential biomarkers. History matching is an approach developed in other modelling communities, based on constructing fast-running Gaussian process emulators of the model. Emulators were constructed from a small number of model runs (around 10²), and then run many times (>10⁶) at low computational cost, each time with a different set of model parameters. Emulator outputs were compared with experimental biomarkers using an implausibility measure, which took into account experimental variance as well as emulator variance. By repeating this process, the region of non-implausible parameter space was iteratively reduced. Both cardiac cell models were successfully calibrated to experimental datasets, resulting in sets of parameters that could be sampled to produce variable action potentials. However, model parameters did not occupy a small range of values. Instead, the history matching process exposed inputs that can co-vary across a wide range and still be consistent with a particular biomarker. We also found correlations between some biomarkers, indicating a need for better descriptors of action potential shape.

A Heart for Diversity: Simulating Variability in Cardiac Arrhythmia Research

In cardiac electrophysiology, there exist many sources of inter- and intra-personal variability. These include variability in conditions and environment, and genotypic and molecular diversity, including differences in expression and behavior of ion channels and transporters, which lead to phenotypic diversity (e.g., variable integrated responses at the cell, tissue, and organ levels). These variabilities play an important role in progression of heart disease and arrhythmia syndromes and outcomes of therapeutic interventions. Yet, the traditional in silico framework for investigating cardiac arrhythmias is built upon a parameter/property-averaging approach that typically overlooks the physiological diversity. Inspired by work done in genetics and neuroscience, new modeling frameworks of cardiac electrophysiology have been recently developed that take advantage of modern computational capabilities and approaches, and account for the variance in the biological data they are intended to illuminate. In this review, we outline the recent advances in statistical and computational techniques that take into account physiological variability, and move beyond the traditional cardiac model-building scheme that involves averaging over samples from many individuals in the construction of a highly tuned composite model. We discuss how these advanced methods have harnessed the power of big (simulated) data to study the mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmias, with a special emphasis on atrial fibrillation, and improve the assessment of proarrhythmic risk and drug response. The challenges of using in silico approaches with variability are also addressed and future directions are proposed.

Practical identifiability and uncertainty quantification of a pulsatile cardiovascular model

Mathematical models are essential tools to study how the cardiovascular system maintains homeostasis. The utility of such models is limited by the accuracy of their predictions, which can be determined by uncertainty quantification (UQ). A challenge associated with the use of UQ is that many published methods assume that the underlying model is identifiable (e.g. that a one-to-one mapping exists from the parameter space to the model output). In this study we present a novel workflow to calibrate a lumped-parameter model to left ventricular pressure and volume time series data. Key steps include using (1) literature and available data to determine nominal parameter values; (2) sensitivity analysis and subset selection to determine a set of identifiable parameters; (3) optimization to find a point estimate for identifiable parameters; and (4) frequentist and Bayesian UQ calculations to assess the predictive capability of the model. Our results show that it is possible to determine 5 identifiable model parameters that can be estimated to our experimental data from three rats, and that computed UQ intervals capture the measurement and model error.

Reproducible model development in the cardiac electrophysiology Web Lab

The modelling of the electrophysiology of cardiac cells is one of the most mature areas of systems biology. This extended concentration of research effort brings with it new challenges, foremost among which is that of choosing which of these models is most suitable for addressing a particular scientific question. In a previous paper, we presented our initial work in developing an online resource for the characterisation and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. In that work, we described how we had developed a novel protocol language that allowed us to separate the details of the mathematical model (the majority of cardiac cell models take the form of ordinary differential equations) from the experimental protocol being simulated. We developed a fully-open online repository (which we termed the Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab) which allows users to store and compare the results of applying the same experimental protocol to competing models. In the current paper we describe the most recent and planned extensions of this work, focused on supporting the process of model building from experimental data. We outline the necessary work to develop a machine-readable language to describe the process of inferring parameters from wet lab datasets, and illustrate our approach through a detailed example of fitting a model of the hERG channel using experimental data. We conclude by discussing the future challenges in making further progress in this domain towards our goal of facilitating a fully reproducible approach to the development of cardiac cell models.

Sinusoidal voltage protocols for rapid characterisation of ion channel kinetics

Key points

Ion current kinetics are commonly represented by current–voltage relationships, time constant–voltage relationships and subsequently mathematical models fitted to these. These experiments take substantial time, which means they are rarely performed in the same cell.

Rather than traditional square‐wave voltage clamps, we fitted a model to the current evoked by a novel sum‐of‐sinusoids voltage clamp that was only 8 s long.

Short protocols that can be performed multiple times within a single cell will offer many new opportunities to measure how ion current kinetics are affected by changing conditions.

The new model predicts the current under traditional square‐wave protocols well, with better predictions of underlying currents than literature models. The current under a novel physiologically relevant series of action potential clamps is predicted extremely well.

The short sinusoidal protocols allow a model to be fully fitted to individual cells, allowing us to examine cell–cell variability in current kinetics for the first time.

Abstract

Understanding the roles of ion currents is crucial to predict the action of pharmaceuticals and mutations in different scenarios, and thereby to guide clinical interventions in the heart, brain and other electrophysiological systems. Our ability to predict how ion currents contribute to cellular electrophysiology is in turn critically dependent on our characterisation of ion channel kinetics – the voltage‐dependent rates of transition between open, closed and inactivated channel states. We present a new method for rapidly exploring and characterising ion channel kinetics, applying it to the hERG potassium channel as an example, with the aim of generating a quantitatively predictive representation of the ion current. We fitted a mathematical model to currents evoked by a novel 8 second sinusoidal voltage clamp in CHO cells overexpressing hERG1a. The model was then used to predict over 5 minutes of recordings in the same cell in response to further protocols: a series of traditional square step voltage clamps, and also a novel voltage clamp comprising a collection of physiologically relevant action potentials. We demonstrate that we can make predictive cell‐specific models that outperform the use of averaged data from a number of different cells, and thereby examine which changes in gating are responsible for cell–cell variability in current kinetics. Our technique allows rapid collection of consistent and high quality data, from single cells, and produces more predictive mathematical ion channel models than traditional approaches.

Ion current kinetics are commonly represented by current–voltage relationships, time constant–voltage relationships and subsequently mathematical models fitted to these. These experiments take substantial time, which means they are rarely performed in the same cell.

Rather than traditional square‐wave voltage clamps, we fitted a model to the current evoked by a novel sum‐of‐sinusoids voltage clamp that was only 8 s long.

Short protocols that can be performed multiple times within a single cell will offer many new opportunities to measure how ion current kinetics are affected by changing conditions.

The new model predicts the current under traditional square‐wave protocols well, with better predictions of underlying currents than literature models. The current under a novel physiologically relevant series of action potential clamps is predicted extremely well.

The short sinusoidal protocols allow a model to be fully fitted to individual cells, allowing us to examine cell–cell variability in current kinetics for the first time.

Patient-Specific Cardiovascular Computational Modeling: Diversity of Personalization and Challenges

Patient-specific computer models have been developed representing a variety of aspects of the cardiovascular system spanning the disciplines of electrophysiology, electromechanics, solid mechanics, and fluid dynamics. These physiological mechanistic models predict macroscopic phenomena such as electrical impulse propagation and contraction throughout the entire heart as well as flow and pressure dynamics occurring in the ventricular chambers, aorta, and coronary arteries during each heartbeat. Such models have been used to study a variety of clinical scenarios including aortic aneurysms, coronary stenosis, cardiac valvular disease, left ventricular assist devices, cardiac resynchronization therapy, ablation therapy, and risk stratification. After decades of research, these models are beginning to be incorporated into clinical practice directly via marketed devices and indirectly by improving our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of health and disease within a clinical context.

Validation and Trustworthiness of Multiscale Models of Cardiac Electrophysiology

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have a long history in basic science applications and device design and evaluation, but have significant potential for clinical applications in all areas of cardiovascular medicine, including functional imaging and mapping, drug safety evaluation, disease diagnosis, patient selection, and therapy optimisation or personalisation. For all stakeholders to be confident in model-based clinical decisions, cardiac electrophysiological (CEP) models must be demonstrated to be trustworthy and reliable. Credibility, that is, the belief in the predictive capability, of a computational model is primarily established by performing validation, in which model predictions are compared to experimental or clinical data. However, there are numerous challenges to performing validation for highly complex multi-scale physiological models such as CEP models. As a result, credibility of CEP model predictions is usually founded upon a wide range of distinct factors, including various types of validation results, underlying theory, evidence supporting model assumptions, evidence from model calibration, all at a variety of scales from ion channel to cell to organ. Consequently, it is often unclear, or a matter for debate, the extent to which a CEP model can be trusted for a given application. The aim of this article is to clarify potential rationale for the trustworthiness of CEP models by reviewing evidence that has been (or could be) presented to support their credibility. We specifically address the complexity and multi-scale nature of CEP models which makes traditional model evaluation difficult. In addition, we make explicit some of the credibility justification that we believe is implicitly embedded in the CEP modeling literature. Overall, we provide a fresh perspective to CEP model credibility, and build a depiction and categorisation of the wide-ranging body of credibility evidence for CEP models. This paper also represents a step toward the extension of model evaluation methodologies that are currently being developed by the medical device community, to physiological models.

Uncertainty quantification of 2 models of cardiac electromechanics

Computational models of the heart have reached a maturity level that render them useful for in silico studies of arrhythmia and other cardiac diseases. However, the translation to the clinic of cardiac simulations critically depends on demonstrating the accuracy, robustness, and reliability of the underlying computational models under the presence of uncertainties. In this work, we study for the first time the effect of parameter uncertainty on 2 state-of-the-art coupled models of excitation-contraction of cardiac tissue. To this end, we perform forward uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analyses to understand how variability in key maximal conductances affect selected quantities of interest, such as the action potential duration (APD₉₀ ), maximum intracellular calcium concentration, cardiac stretch, and stress. Our results suggest a strong linear relationship between selected maximal conductances and quantities of interest for a variability in parameters up to 25%, which justifies the construction of linear response surfaces that are used to compute the empirical probability density functions of all the quantities of interest under study. For both electromechanical models analyzed, uncertainty in the material parameters associated to the passive mechanical response of cardiac tissue does not affect the duration of action potentials, neither the amplitude of intracellular calcium concentrations. Our results confirm the poor mechanoelectric feedback that classical models of cardiac electromechanics have, even under the presence of parameter uncertainty.

Uncertainty Quantification Reveals the Importance of Data Variability and Experimental Design Considerations for in Silico Proarrhythmia Risk Assessment

The Comprehensive in vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) is a global initiative intended to improve drug proarrhythmia risk assessment using a new paradigm of mechanistic assays. Under the CiPA paradigm, the relative risk of drug-induced Torsade de Pointes (TdP) is assessed using an in silico model of the human ventricular action potential (AP) that integrates in vitro pharmacology data from multiple ion channels. Thus, modeling predictions of cardiac risk liability will depend critically on the variability in pharmacology data, and uncertainty quantification (UQ) must comprise an essential component of the in silico assay. This study explores UQ methods that may be incorporated into the CiPA framework. Recently, we proposed a promising in silico TdP risk metric (qNet), which is derived from AP simulations and allows separation of a set of CiPA training compounds into Low, Intermediate, and High TdP risk categories. The purpose of this study was to use UQ to evaluate the robustness of TdP risk separation by qNet. Uncertainty in the model parameters used to describe drug binding and ionic current block was estimated using the non-parametric bootstrap method and a Bayesian inference approach. Uncertainty was then propagated through AP simulations to quantify uncertainty in qNet for each drug. UQ revealed lower uncertainty and more accurate TdP risk stratification by qNet when simulations were run at concentrations below 5× the maximum therapeutic exposure (C_max). However, when drug effects were extrapolated above 10× C_max, UQ showed that qNet could no longer clearly separate drugs by TdP risk. This was because for most of the pharmacology data, the amount of current block measured was <60%, preventing reliable estimation of IC₅₀-values. The results of this study demonstrate that the accuracy of TdP risk prediction depends both on the intrinsic variability in ion channel pharmacology data as well as on experimental design considerations that preclude an accurate determination of drug IC₅₀-values in vitro. Thus, we demonstrate that UQ provides valuable information about in silico modeling predictions that can inform future proarrhythmic risk evaluation of drugs under the CiPA paradigm.

Advances in computational modelling for personalised medicine after myocardial infarction

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a leading cause of premature morbidity and mortality worldwide. Determining which patients will experience heart failure and sudden cardiac death after an acute MI is notoriously difficult for clinicians. The extent of heart damage after an acute MI is informed by cardiac imaging, typically using echocardiography or sometimes, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR). These scans provide complex data sets that are only partially exploited by clinicians in daily practice, implying potential for improved risk assessment. Computational modelling of left ventricular (LV) function can bridge the gap towards personalised medicine using cardiac imaging in patients with post-MI. Several novel biomechanical parameters have theoretical prognostic value and may be useful to reflect the biomechanical effects of novel preventive therapy for adverse remodelling post-MI. These parameters include myocardial contractility (regional and global), stiffness and stress. Further, the parameters can be delineated spatially to correspond with infarct pathology and the remote zone. While these parameters hold promise, there are challenges for translating MI modelling into clinical practice, including model uncertainty, validation and verification, as well as time-efficient processing. More research is needed to (1) simplify imaging with CMR in patients with post-MI, while preserving diagnostic accuracy and patient tolerance (2) to assess and validate novel biomechanical parameters against established prognostic biomarkers, such as LV ejection fraction and infarct size. Accessible software packages with minimal user interaction are also needed. Translating benefits to patients will be achieved through a multidisciplinary approach including clinicians, mathematicians, statisticians and industry partners.

Potassium currents in the heart: functional roles in repolarization, arrhythmia and therapeutics

This is the second of the two White Papers from the fourth UC Davis Cardiovascular Symposium Systems Approach to Understanding Cardiac Excitation-Contraction Coupling and Arrhythmias (3-4 March 2016), a biennial event that brings together leading experts in different fields of cardiovascular research. The theme of the 2016 symposium was 'K⁺ channels and regulation', and the objectives of the conference were severalfold: (1) to identify current knowledge gaps; (2) to understand what may go wrong in the diseased heart and why; (3) to identify possible novel therapeutic targets; and (4) to further the development of systems biology approaches to decipher the molecular mechanisms and treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. The sessions of the Symposium focusing on the functional roles of the cardiac K⁺ channel in health and disease, as well as K⁺ channels as therapeutic targets, were contributed by Ye Chen-Izu, Gideon Koren, James Weiss, David Paterson, David Christini, Dobromir Dobrev, Jordi Heijman, Thomas O'Hara, Crystal Ripplinger, Zhilin Qu, Jamie Vandenberg, Colleen Clancy, Isabelle Deschenes, Leighton Izu, Tamas Banyasz, Andras Varro, Heike Wulff, Eleonora Grandi, Michael Sanguinetti, Donald Bers, Jeanne Nerbonne and Nipavan Chiamvimonvat as speakers and panel discussants. This article summarizes state-of-the-art knowledge and controversies on the functional roles of cardiac K⁺ channels in normal and diseased heart. We endeavour to integrate current knowledge at multiple scales, from the single cell to the whole organ levels, and from both experimental and computational studies.

Using physiologically based models for clinical translation: predictive modelling, data interpretation or something in-between?

Heart disease continues to be a significant clinical problem in Western society. Predictive models and simulations that integrate physiological understanding with patient information derived from clinical data have huge potential to contribute to improving our understanding of both the progression and treatment of heart disease. In particular they provide the potential to improve patient selection and optimisation of cardiovascular interventions across a range of pathologies. Currently a significant proportion of this potential is still to be realised. In this paper we discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with this realisation. Reviewing the successful elements of model translation for biophysically based models and the emerging supporting technologies, we propose three distinct modes of clinical translation. Finally we outline the challenges ahead that will be fundamental to overcome if the ultimate goal of fully personalised clinical cardiac care is to be achieved.

Limitations in electrophysiological model development and validation caused by differences between simulations and experimental protocols

Models of ion channel dynamics are usually built by fitting isolated cell experimental values of individual parameters while neglecting the interaction between them. Another shortcoming regards the estimation of ionic current conductances, which is often based on quantification of Action Potential (AP)-derived markers. Although this procedure reduces the uncertainty in the calculation of conductances, many studies evaluate electrophysiological AP-derived markers from single cell simulations, whereas experimental measurements are obtained from tissue preparations. In this work, we explore the limitations of these approaches to estimate ion channel dynamics and maximum current conductances and how they could be overcome by using multiscale simulations of experimental protocols. Four human ventricular cell models, namely ten Tusscher and Panfilov (2006), Grandi et al. (2010), O'Hara et al. (2011), and Carro et al. (2011), were used. Two problems involving scales from ion channels to tissue were investigated: 1) characterization of L-type calcium voltage-dependent inactivation I_Ca,L; 2) identification of major ionic conductance contributors to steady-state AP markers, including APD₉₀, APD₇₅, APD₅₀, APD₂₅, Triangulation and maximal and minimal values of V and dV/dt during the AP (V_max, V_min, dV/dt_max, dV/dt_min). Our results show that: 1) I_Ca,L inactivation characteristics differed significantly when calculated from model equations and from simulations reproducing the experimental protocols. 2) Large differences were found in the ionic currents contributors to APD₂₅, Triangulation, V_max, dV/dt_max and dV/dt_min between single cells and 1D-tissue. When proposing any new model formulation, or evaluating an existing model, consistency between simulated and experimental data should be verified considering all involved effects and scales.

Hierarchical Bayesian inference for ion channel screening dose-response data

Dose-response (or 'concentration-effect') relationships commonly occur in biological and pharmacological systems and are well characterised by Hill curves. These curves are described by an equation with two parameters: the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50); and the Hill coefficient. Typically just the 'best fit' parameter values are reported in the literature. Here we introduce a Python-based software tool, PyHillFit , and describe the underlying Bayesian inference methods that it uses, to infer probability distributions for these parameters as well as the level of experimental observation noise. The tool also allows for hierarchical fitting, characterising the effect of inter-experiment variability. We demonstrate the use of the tool on a recently published dataset on multiple ion channel inhibition by multiple drug compounds. We compare the maximum likelihood, Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian approaches. We then show how uncertainty in dose-response inputs can be characterised and propagated into a cardiac action potential simulation to give a probability distribution on model outputs.

Hierarchical Bayesian inference for ion channel screening dose-response data

Dose-response (or ‘concentration-effect’) relationships commonly occur in biological and pharmacological systems and are well characterised by Hill curves. These curves are described by an equation with two parameters: the inhibitory concentration 50% (IC50); and the Hill coefficient. Typically just the ‘best fit’ parameter values are reported in the literature. Here we introduce a Python-based software tool, PyHillFit , and describe the underlying Bayesian inference methods that it uses, to infer probability distributions for these parameters as well as the level of experimental observation noise. The tool also allows for hierarchical fitting, characterising the effect of inter-experiment variability. We demonstrate the use of the tool on a recently published dataset on multiple ion channel inhibition by multiple drug compounds. We compare the maximum likelihood, Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian approaches. We then show how uncertainty in dose-response inputs can be characterised and propagated into a cardiac action potential simulation to give a probability distribution on model outputs.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

KEY POINTS

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.

ABSTRACT

The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

Multiphysics and multiscale modelling, data-model fusion and integration of organ physiology in the clinic: ventricular cardiac mechanics

With heart and cardiovascular diseases continually challenging healthcare systems worldwide, translating basic research on cardiac (patho)physiology into clinical care is essential. Exacerbating this already extensive challenge is the complexity of the heart, relying on its hierarchical structure and function to maintain cardiovascular flow. Computational modelling has been proposed and actively pursued as a tool for accelerating research and translation. Allowing exploration of the relationships between physics, multiscale mechanisms and function, computational modelling provides a platform for improving our understanding of the heart. Further integration of experimental and clinical data through data assimilation and parameter estimation techniques is bringing computational models closer to use in routine clinical practice. This article reviews developments in computational cardiac modelling and how their integration with medical imaging data is providing new pathways for translational cardiac modelling.

Uncertainty and variability in models of the cardiac action potential: Can we build trustworthy models?

Cardiac electrophysiology models have been developed for over 50 years, and now include detailed descriptions of individual ion currents and sub-cellular calcium handling. It is commonly accepted that there are many uncertainties in these systems, with quantities such as ion channel kinetics or expression levels being difficult to measure or variable between samples. Until recently, the original approach of describing model parameters using single values has been retained, and consequently the majority of mathematical models in use today provide point predictions, with no associated uncertainty.

In recent years, statistical techniques have been developed and applied in many scientific areas to capture uncertainties in the quantities that determine model behaviour, and to provide a distribution of predictions which accounts for this uncertainty. In this paper we discuss this concept, which is termed uncertainty quantification, and consider how it might be applied to cardiac electrophysiology models.

We present two case studies in which probability distributions, instead of individual numbers, are inferred from data to describe quantities such as maximal current densities. Then we show how these probabilistic representations of model parameters enable probabilities to be placed on predicted behaviours. We demonstrate how changes in these probability distributions across data sets offer insight into which currents cause beat-to-beat variability in canine APs. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges that this approach entails, and how it provides opportunities to improve our understanding of electrophysiology.

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Uncertainty and variability in action potential models can be quantified.

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A probabilistic method for inferring maximal current densities is developed and applied.

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We use this to infer the currents responsible for canine beat-to-beat variability.

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Emulation of mathematical models provides rich information at low computational cost.

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The importance of considering uncertainty and variability in future is discussed.