The plasmidome of a Salmonella enterica serovar Derby isolated from pork meat

Metagenomic analysis reveals gut plasmids as diagnosis markers for colorectal cancer

Background

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is linked to distinct gut microbiome patterns. The efficacy of gut bacteria as diagnostic biomarkers for CRC has been confirmed. Despite the potential to influence microbiome physiology and evolution, the set of plasmids in the gut microbiome remains understudied.

Methods

We investigated the essential features of gut plasmid using metagenomic data of 1,242 samples from eight distinct geographic cohorts. We identified 198 plasmid-related sequences that differed in abundance between CRC patients and controls and screened 21 markers for the CRC diagnosis model. We utilize these plasmid markers combined with bacteria to construct a random forest classifier model to diagnose CRC.

Results

The plasmid markers were able to distinguish between the CRC patients and controls [mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC = 0.70)] and maintained accuracy in two independent cohorts. In comparison to the bacteria-only model, the performance of the composite panel created by combining plasmid and bacteria features was significantly improved in all training cohorts (mean AUC_composite = 0.804 and mean AUC_bacteria = 0.787) and maintained high accuracy in all independent cohorts (mean AUC_composite = 0.839 and mean AUC_bacteria = 0.821). In comparison to controls, we found that the bacteria-plasmid correlation strength was weaker in CRC patients. Additionally, the KEGG orthology (KO) genes in plasmids that are independent of bacteria or plasmids significantly correlated with CRC.

Conclusion

We identified plasmid features associated with CRC and showed how plasmid and bacterial markers could be combined to further enhance CRC diagnosis accuracy.

GraphPlas: Refined Classification of Plasmid Sequences Using Assembly Graphs

Plasmids are extra-chromosomal genetic materials with important markers that affect the function and behaviour of the microorganisms supporting their environmental adaptations. Hence the identification and recovery of such plasmid sequences from assemblies is a crucial task in metagenomics analysis. In the past, machine learning approaches have been developed to separate chromosomes and plasmids. However, there is always a compromise between precision and recall in the existing classification approaches. The similarity of compositions between chromosomes and their plasmids makes it difficult to separate plasmids and chromosomes with high accuracy. However, high confidence classifications are accurate with a significant compromise of recall, and vice versa. Hence, the requirement exists to have more sophisticated approaches to separate plasmids and chromosomes accurately while retaining an acceptable trade-off between precision and recall. We present GraphPlas, a novel approach for plasmid recovery using coverage, composition and assembly graph topology. We evaluated GraphPlas on simulated and real short read assemblies with varying compositions of plasmids and chromosomes. Our experiments show that GraphPlas is able to significantly improve accuracy in detecting plasmid and chromosomal contigs on top of popular state-of-the-art plasmid detection tools. The source code is freely available at: https://github.com/anuradhawick/GraphPlas.

Genomic Characterization of Multidrug-Resistant Salmonella Serovars Derby and Rissen From the Pig Value Chain in Vietnam

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is the most reported cause of bacterial foodborne zoonoses in Vietnam, and contaminated pork is one of the main sources of human infection. In recent years, the prevalence of NTS carrying multiple antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs) have been increased. The genomic characterization along the pig value chain and the identification of ARGs and plasmids have the potential to improve food safety by understanding the dissemination of ARGs from the farm to the table. We report an analysis of 13 S. Derby and 10 S. Rissen isolates, collected in 2013 at different stages in Vietnamese slaughterhouses and markets. VITEK 2 Compact System was used to characterize the phenotypical antimicrobial resistance of the isolates. In addition, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was used to detect ARGs and plasmids conferring multidrug resistance. Whole genome single nucleotide polymorphism typing was used to determine the genetic diversity of the strains and the spread of ARGs along the pig value chain. Altogether, 86.9% (20/23) of the samples were resistant to at least one antibiotic. Resistance to ampicillin was most frequently detected (73.9%), followed by piperacillin and moxifloxacin (both 69.6%). At least one ARG was found in all strains, and 69.6% (16/23) were multidrug-resistant (MDR). The observed phenotype and genotype of antimicrobial resistance were not always concordant. Plasmid replicons were found in almost all strains [95.6% (22/23)], and the phylogenetic analysis detected nine clusters (S. Derby, n = 5; S. Rissen, n = 4). ARGs and plasmid content were almost identical within clusters. We found six MDR IncHI1s with identical plasmid sequence type in strains of different genetic clusters at the slaughterhouse and the market. In conclusion, high rates of multidrug resistance were observed in Salmonella strains from Vietnam in 2013. Genomic analysis revealed many resistance genes and plasmids, which have the potential to spread along the pig value chain from the slaughterhouse to the market. This study pointed out that bioinformatics analyses of WGS data are essential to detect, trace back, and control the MDR strains along the pig value chain. Further studies are necessary to assess the more recent MDR Salmonella strains spreading in Vietnam.

Salmonella Derby: A Comparative Genomic Analysis of Strains From Germany

Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Derby (S. Derby) is one of the most frequent causes for salmonellosis in humans and animals. Understanding the genetic diversity of S. Derby, as well as the nature and origin of its resistance to antimicrobial treatment are thus the key to epidemiological control and surveillance. Here, we report an analysis of 15 S. Derby strains isolated from pig and cattle in slaughterhouses across Germany (2000–2015), which belonged to multilocus sequence types (ST) ST39, ST40 and ST682. Strains were compared to publicly available S. Derby sequence data of these three STs from Germany, comprising 65 isolates collected between 2004 and 2018 from different sources (i.e., pigs, humans, cattle, wild boar, and poultry). A total of 80 sequences (ST39 = 34, ST40 = 21, and ST682 = 25) were analyzed to assess genetic diversity, to identify virulence-associated and antimicrobial resistance genes (ARGs), and to characterize plasmid content. Strains belonging to all three STs were identified in each source examined. Strains with the same ST were closely related regardless of origin. Altogether, 72.5% of the isolates carried at least one resistance gene, furthermore ST40 carried most of the ARGs and the plasmid replicons. The IncI1 replicon was detected in eleven isolates, four of them carried IncI1 plasmid ST26 with clonal complex 2. The comparison of these four isolates with an IncI1 ST26 plasmid reported in 2010 from a German pig (JX566770), showed only variations in a region carrying different ARGs and mobile genetic elements. The strains of our collection had similar genetic diversity as the strains taken from the public database. Moreover, we found that strains harboring multidrug resistant IncI plasmid were found in different animal species, indicating that S. Derby may be implicated in the spread of antimicrobial resistance among animal species. Results may contribute to the knowledge about the diversity in S. Derby in Germany, which may be useful for the future surveillance and antimicrobial resistance of this serovar.

Incompatibility Group I1 (IncI1) Plasmids: Their Genetics, Biology, and Public Health Relevance

Bacterial plasmids are extrachromosomal genetic elements that often carry antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes and genes encoding increased virulence and can be transmissible among bacteria by conjugation. One key group of plasmids is the incompatibility group I1 (IncI1) plasmids, which have been isolated from multiple Enterobacteriaceae of food animal origin and clinically ill human patients. The IncI group of plasmids were initially characterized due to their sensitivity to the filamentous bacteriophage If1. Two prototypical IncI1 plasmids, R64 and pColIb-P9, have been extensively studied, and the plasmids consist of unique regions associated with plasmid replication, plasmid stability/maintenance, transfer machinery apparatus, single-stranded DNA transfer, and antimicrobial resistance. IncI1 plasmids are somewhat unique in that they encode two types of sex pili, a thick, rigid pilus necessary for mating and a thin, flexible pilus that helps stabilize bacteria for plasmid transfer in liquid environments. A key public health concern with IncI1 plasmids is their ability to carry antimicrobial resistance genes, including those associated with critically important antimicrobials used to treat severe cases of enteric infections, including the third-generation cephalosporins. Because of the potential importance of these plasmids, this review focuses on the distribution of the plasmids, their phenotypic characteristics associated with antimicrobial resistance and virulence, and their replication, maintenance, and transfer.

The Salmonella enterica Plasmidome as a Reservoir of Antibiotic Resistance

The emergence of multidrug-resistant bacterial strains worldwide has become a serious problem for public health over recent decades. The increase in antimicrobial resistance has been expanding via plasmids as mobile genetic elements encoding antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes that are transferred vertically and horizontally. This study focuses on Salmonella enterica, one of the leading foodborne pathogens in industrialized countries. S. enterica is known to carry several plasmids involved not only in virulence but also in AMR. In the current paper, we present an integrated strategy to detect plasmid scaffolds in whole genome sequencing (WGS) assemblies. We developed a two-step procedure to predict plasmids based on i) the presence of essential elements for plasmid replication and mobility, as well as ii) sequence similarity to a reference plasmid. Next, to confirm the accuracy of the prediction in 1750 S. enterica short-read sequencing data, we combined Oxford Nanopore MinION long-read sequencing with Illumina MiSeq short-read sequencing in hybrid assemblies for 84 isolates to evaluate the proportion of plasmid that has been detected. At least one scaffold with an origin of replication (ORI) was predicted in 61.3% of the Salmonella isolates tested. The results indicated that IncFII and IncI1 ORIs were distributed in many S. enterica serotypes and were the most prevalent AMR genes carrier, whereas IncHI2A/IncHI2 and IncA/C2 were more serotype restricted but bore several AMR genes. Comparison between hybrid and short-read assemblies revealed that 81.1% of plasmids were found in the short-read sequencing using our pipeline. Through this process, we established that plasmids are prevalent in S. enterica and we also substantially expand the AMR genes in the resistome of this species.

Cis-Acting Relaxases Guarantee Independent Mobilization of MOBQ 4 Plasmids

Plasmids are key vehicles of horizontal gene transfer and contribute greatly to bacterial genome plasticity. In this work, we studied a group of plasmids from enterobacteria that encode phylogenetically related mobilization functions that populate the previously non-described MOB_Q4 relaxase family. These plasmids encode two transfer genes: mobA coding for the MOB_Q4 relaxase; and mobC, which is non-essential but enhances the plasmid mobilization frequency. The origin of transfer is located between these two divergently transcribed mob genes. We found that MPF_I conjugative plasmids were the most efficient helpers for MOB_Q4 conjugative dissemination among clinically relevant enterobacteria. While highly similar in their mobilization module, two sub-groups with unrelated replicons (Rep_3 and ColE2) can be distinguished in this plasmid family. These subgroups can stably coexist (are compatible) and transfer independently, despite origin-of-transfer cross-recognition by their relaxases. Specific discrimination among their highly similar oriT sequences is guaranteed by the preferential cis activity of the MOB_Q4 relaxases. Such a strategy would be biologically relevant in a scenario of co-residence of non-divergent elements to favor self-dissemination.

Population dynamics of an Escherichia coli ST131 lineage during recurrent urinary tract infection

Recurrent urinary tract infections (rUTIs) are extremely common, with ~ 25% of all women experiencing a recurrence within 1 year of their original infection. Escherichia coli ST131 is a globally dominant multidrug resistant clone associated with high rates of rUTI. Here, we show the dynamics of an ST131 population over a 5-year period from one elderly woman with rUTI since the 1970s. Using whole genome sequencing, we identify an indigenous clonal lineage (P1A) linked to rUTI and persistence in the fecal flora, providing compelling evidence of an intestinal reservoir of rUTI. We also show that the P1A lineage possesses substantial plasmid diversity, resulting in the coexistence of antibiotic resistant and sensitive intestinal isolates despite frequent treatment. Our longitudinal study provides a unique comprehensive genomic analysis of a clonal lineage within a single individual and suggests a population-wide resistance mechanism enabling rapid adaptation to fluctuating antibiotic exposure.

Recurrent urinary tract infections occur in ~ 25% of women. Here, Beatson and colleagues use whole genome sequencing to track the dynamics of an E. coli ST131 clone in a single patient over a 5-year period. This study provides unique insights into pathogen evolution during recurrent urinary infection.

PlasFlow: predicting plasmid sequences in metagenomic data using genome signatures

Plasmids are mobile genetics elements that play an important role in the environmental adaptation of microorganisms. Although plasmids are usually analyzed in cultured microorganisms, there is a need for methods that allow for the analysis of pools of plasmids (plasmidomes) in environmental samples. To that end, several molecular biology and bioinformatics methods have been developed; however, they are limited to environments with low diversity and cannot recover large plasmids. Here, we present PlasFlow, a novel tool based on genomic signatures that employs a neural network approach for identification of bacterial plasmid sequences in environmental samples. PlasFlow can recover plasmid sequences from assembled metagenomes without any prior knowledge of the taxonomical or functional composition of samples with an accuracy up to 96%. It can also recover sequences of both circular and linear plasmids and can perform initial taxonomical classification of sequences. Compared to other currently available tools, PlasFlow demonstrated significantly better performance on test datasets. Analysis of two samples from heavy metal-contaminated microbial mats revealed that plasmids may constitute an important fraction of their metagenomes and carry genes involved in heavy-metal homeostasis, proving the pivotal role of plasmids in microorganism adaptation to environmental conditions.

PCR-Based Analysis of ColE1 Plasmids in Clinical Isolates and Metagenomic Samples Reveals Their Importance as Gene Capture Platforms

ColE1 plasmids are important vehicles for the spread of antibiotic resistance in the Enterobacteriaceae and Pasteurellaceae families of bacteria. Their monitoring is essential, as they harbor important resistant determinants in humans, animals and the environment. In this work, we have analyzed ColE1 replicons using bioinformatic and experimental approaches. First, we carried out a computational study examining the structure of different ColE1 plasmids deposited in databases. Bioinformatic analysis of these ColE1 replicons revealed a mosaic genetic structure consisting of a host-adapted conserved region responsible for the housekeeping functions of the plasmid, and a variable region encoding a wide variety of genes, including multiple antibiotic resistance determinants. From this exhaustive computational analysis we developed a new PCR-based technique, targeting a specific sequence in the conserved region, for the screening, capture and sequencing of these small plasmids, either specific for Enterobacteriaceae or specific for Pasteurellaceae. To validate this PCR-based system, we tested various collections of isolates from both bacterial families, finding that ColE1 replicons were not only highly prevalent in antibiotic-resistant isolates, but also present in susceptible bacteria. In Pasteurellaceae, ColE1 plasmids carried almost exclusively antibiotic resistance genes. In Enterobacteriaceae, these plasmids encoded a large range of traits, including not only antibiotic resistance determinants, but also a wide variety of genes, showing the huge genetic plasticity of these small replicons. Finally, we also used a metagenomic approach in order to validate this technique, performing this PCR system using total DNA extractions from fecal samples from poultry, turkeys, pigs and humans. Using Illumina sequencing of the PCR products we identified a great diversity of genes encoded by ColE1 replicons, including different antibiotic resistance determinants, supporting the previous results achieved with the collections of bacterial isolates. In addition, we detected cryptic ColE1 plasmids in both families with no known genes in their variable region, which we have named sentinel plasmids. In conclusion, in this work we present a useful genetic tool for the detection and analysis of ColE1 plasmids, and confirm their important role in the dissemination of antibiotic resistance, especially in the Pasteurellaceae family of bacteria.

Phenotypic Characteristics and Genetic Diversity of Salmonella enterica Serotype Derby Isolated from Human Patients and Foods of Animal Origin

Salmonella enterica serotype Derby is among the three most common serotypes of nontyphoidal Salmonella isolated from patients with diarrhea in China. In this study, 133 Salmonella Derby isolates from human patients (n = 74) and foods of animal origin (n = 59) in Shanghai, China, between September 2013 and December 2014, were selected to study its phenotypic characteristics and genetic diversity. The isolates were subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing, plasmid replicon typing, virulence profile determination, and molecular subtyping by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Isolates were frequently resistant to tetracycline (87.22%), sulfisoxazole (74.44%), and streptomycin (62.41%), and a low frequency of resistance was found toward ofloxacin (3.01%), ceftazidime (2.26%), and cefepime (1.50%); in addition, 93 (69.92%) isolates were multidrug resistant. The most common plasmid incompatibility replicon types were the IncF family (FIA, 51.31%; FIC, 27.82%; and FIB, 21.80%) and IncP types (35.34%): these plasmid types may be associated with the spread of antibiotic resistance and virulence genes. All isolates were positive for the Salmonella pathogenicity island (SPI) gene avrA and the fimbrial gene bcfC from among the 10 virulence genes detected, and most of them carried ssaQ (99.25%), mgtC (97.74%), siiD (98.50%), sopB (97.74%), and sopE (96.99%). PFGE showed 68 patterns in nine main clusters at an 85% similarity threshold. Most of the isolates from different sources possessed the same fingerprints or molecular profiles in each cluster, which strongly suggests the possibility that foods of animal origin, especially pork, serve as an important source for human infection. Moreover, this diversity may suggest strains originating from multiple clones. Therefore, surveillance on this serotype should be strengthened to prevent transmission of Salmonella Derby from foods of animal origin, especially pork, to humans.

Characterization of epidemic IncI1-Iγ plasmids harboring ambler class A and C genes in Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica from animals and humans

The aim of the study was to identify the plasmid-encoded factors contributing to the emergence and spread of epidemic IncI1-Iγ plasmids obtained from Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica isolates from animal and human reservoirs. For this, 251 IncI1-Iγ plasmids carrying various extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) or AmpC β-lactamase genes were compared using plasmid multilocus sequence typing (pMLST). Thirty-two of these plasmids belonging to different pMLST types were sequenced using Roche 454 and Illumina platforms. Epidemic IncI1-Iγ plasmids could be assigned to various dominant clades, whereas rarely detected plasmids clustered together as a distinct clade. Similar phylogenetic trees were obtained using only the plasmid backbone sequences, showing that the differences observed between the plasmids belonging to distinct clades resulted mainly from differences between their backbone sequences. Plasmids belonging to the various clades differed particularly in the presence/absence of genes encoding partitioning and addiction systems, which contribute to stable inheritance during cell division and plasmid maintenance. Despite this, plasmids belonging to the various phylogenetic clades also showed marked resistance gene associations, indicating the circulation of successful plasmid-gene combinations. The variation in traY and excA genes found in IncI1-Iγ plasmids is conserved within pMLST sequence types and plays a role in incompatibility, although functional study is needed to elucidate the role of these genes in plasmid epidemiology.

Strategies and approaches in plasmidome studies-uncovering plasmid diversity disregarding of linear elements?

The term plasmid was originally coined for circular, extrachromosomal genetic elements. Today, plasmids are widely recognized not only as important factors facilitating genome restructuring but also as vehicles for the dissemination of beneficial characters within bacterial communities. Plasmid diversity has been uncovered by means of culture-dependent or -independent approaches, such as endogenous or exogenous plasmid isolation as well as PCR-based detection or transposon-aided capture, respectively. High-throughput-sequencing made possible to cover total plasmid populations in a given environment, i.e., the plasmidome, and allowed to address the quality and significance of self-replicating genetic elements. Since such efforts were and still are rather restricted to circular molecules, here we put equal emphasis on the linear plasmids which—despite their frequent occurrence in a large number of bacteria—are largely neglected in prevalent plasmidome conceptions.

The complete plasmid sequences of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium U288

Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium U288 is an emerging pathogen of pigs. The strain contains three plasmids of diverse origin that encode traits that are of concern for food security and safety, these include antibiotic resistant determinants, an array of functions that can modify cell physiology and permit genetic mobility. At 148,711 bp, pSTU288-1 appears to be a hybrid plasmid containing a conglomerate of genes found in pSLT of S. Typhimurium LT2, coupled with a mosaic of horizontally-acquired elements. Class I integron containing gene cassettes conferring resistance against clinically important antibiotics and compounds are present in pSTU288-1. A curious feature of the plasmid involves the deletion of two genes encoded in the Salmonella plasmid virulence operon (spvR and spvA) following the insertion of a tnpA IS26-like element coupled to a blaTEM gene. The spv operon is considered to be a major plasmid-encoded Salmonella virulence factor that is essential for the intracellular lifecycle. The loss of the positive regulator SpvR may impact on the pathogenesis of S. Typhimurium U288. A second 11,067 bp plasmid designated pSTU288-2 contains further antibiotic resistance determinants, as well as replication and mobilization genes. Finally, a small 4675 bp plasmid pSTU288-3 was identified containing mobilization genes and a pleD-like G-G-D/E-E-F conserved domain protein that modulate intracellular levels of cyclic di-GMP, and are associated with motile to sessile transitions in growth.

The IncI1 plasmid carrying the blaCTX-M-1 gene persists in in vitro culture of a Escherichia coli strain from broilers

BACKGROUND

Commensal bacteria are a reservoir for antimicrobial-resistance genes. In the Netherlands, bacteria producing Extended Spectrum Beta-Lactamases (ESBL) are found on chicken-meat and in the gut of broilers at a high prevalence and the predominant ESBL-gene is the bla(CTX-M-1) located on IncI1 plasmids. We aim to determine the fitness costs of this plasmid for the bacterium.We investigated the conjugation dynamics of IncI1 plasmids carrying the bla(CTX-M-1) gene in a batch culture and its impact on the population dynamics of three E. coli populations: donors, recipients and transconjugants. The intrinsic growth rate (ψ), maximum density (K) and lag-phase (λ) of the populations were estimated as well as the conjugation coefficient. Loss of the plasmid by transconjugants was either assumed constant or depended on the effective growth rate of the transconjugants.Parameters were estimated from experiments with pure culture of donors, recipients and transconjugants and with mixed culture of donors and recipients with a duration of 24 or 48 hours. Extrapolation of the results was compared to a 3-months experiment in which a mixed culture of recipient and transconjugant was regularly diluted in new medium.

RESULTS

No differences in estimated growth parameters (ψ, K or λ) were found between donor, recipient and transconjugant, and plasmid loss was not observed. The conjugation coefficient of transconjugants was 104 times larger than that of the donor. In the 3-months experiment, the proportion of transconjugants did not decrease, indicating no or very small fitness costs.

CONCLUSIONS

In vitro the IncI1 plasmid carrying the blaCTX-M-1 gene imposes no or negligible fitness costs on its E. coli host, and persists without antimicrobial usage.

Evidence of microevolution of Salmonella Typhimurium during a series of egg-associated outbreaks linked to a single chicken farm

BACKGROUND

The bacterium Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (S. Typhimurium) is one of the most frequent causes of foodborne outbreaks of gastroenteritis. Between 2005-2008 a series of S. Typhimurium outbreaks occurred in Tasmania, Australia, that were all traced to eggs originating from a single chicken farm. We sequenced the genomes of 12 isolates linked to these outbreaks, in order to investigate the microevolution of a pathogenic S. Typhimurium clone in a natural, spatiotemporally restricted population.

RESULTS

The isolates, which shared a phage type similar to DT135 known locally as 135@ or 135a, formed a clade within the S. Typhimurium population with close similarity to the reference genome SL1334 (160 single nucleotide polymorphisms, or SNPs). Ten of the isolates belonged to a single clone (<23 SNPs between isolate pairs) which likely represents the population of S. Typhimurium circulating at the chicken farm; the other two were from sporadic cases and were genetically distinct from this clone. Divergence dating indicated that all 12 isolates diverged from a common ancestor in the mid 1990 s, and the clone began to diversify in 2003-2004. This clone spilled out into the human population several times between 2005-2008, during which time it continued to accumulate SNPs at a constant rate of 3-5 SNPs per year or 1x10-6 substitutions site-1 year-1, faster than the longer-term (~50 year) rates estimated previously for S. Typhimurium. Our data suggest that roughly half of non-synonymous substitutions are rapidly removed from the S. Typhimurium population, after which purifying selection is no longer important and the remaining substitutions become fixed in the population. The S. Typhimurium 135@ isolates were nearly identical to SL1344 in terms of gene content and virulence plasmids. Their phage contents were close to SL1344, except that they carried a different variant of Gifsy-1, lacked the P2 remnant found in SL1344 and carried a novel P2 phage, P2-Hawk, in place SL1344's P2 phage SopEϕ. DT135 lacks P2 prophage. Two additional plasmids were identified in the S. Typhimurium 135@ isolates, pSTM2 and pSTM7. Both plasmids were IncI1, but phylogenetic analysis of the plasmids and their bacterial hosts shows these plasmids are genetically distinct and result from independent plasmid acquisition events.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a high-resolution insight into short-term microevolution of the important human pathogen S. Typhimurium. It indicates that purifying selection occurs rapidly in this population (≤ 6 years) and then declines, and provides an estimate for the short-term substitution rate. The latter is likely to be more relevant for foodborne outbreak investigation than previous estimates based on longer time scales.