Prediction of chronic critical illness in a general intensive care unit

Harness machine learning for multiple prognoses prediction in sepsis patients: evidence from the MIMIC-IV database

BACKGROUND

Sepsis, a severe systemic response to infection, frequently results in adverse outcomes, underscoring the urgency for prompt and accurate prognostic tools. Machine learning methods such as logistic regression, random forests, and CatBoost, have shown potential in early sepsis prediction. The study aimed to create and verify a machine learning model capable of early prognostic identification of patients with sepsis in intensive care units (ICUs).

METHODS

Patients adhering to inclusion and exclusion criteria from the MIMIC-IV v2.2 database were divided into a training set and a validation set in a 7:3 ratio. Initially, we employed difference analysis to assess the significance of each variable and subsequently screened relevant features with multinomial logistic regression analysis. Logistic regression, random forest, and CatBoost algorithms were used to construct machine learning models to predict rapid recovery, chronic critical illness, and mortality in sepsis. The models were compared through several evaluation indexes including precision, accuracy, recall, F1 score, and the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve(AUC) in the validation set to select the optimal model. The best model was visualized and interpreted utilizing the Shapley Additive explanations method.

RESULTS

13174 sepsis patients were included. Post the screening process,26 clinical features were obtained to develop three distinct machine learning models. CatBoost exhibited superior performance among the three models with a weighted AUC of 0.771. The prognosis with the highest predictive performance was mortality (AUC = 0.804), followed by the prognoses of rapid recovery (AUC = 0.773) and chronic critical illness(AUC = 0.737). Urine output, respiratory rate, and temperature were the top three important features for the whole model prediction.

CONCLUSION

The machine learning model developed leveraging the CatBoost algorithm demonstrates the latent capacity to identify sepsis prognosis early. It also suggests that interventions targeting factors such as urine output, respiratory status, and temperature in the early stage may potentially alter the adverse prognosis of sepsis patients. However, the model will still require further external validation in the future.

Predictive value of mNUTRIC score for chronic critical illness in patients of sepsis complicated with ARDS

ObjectiveTo explore the predictive value of the modified NUTrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTRIC) for patients with sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) developing into chronic critical illness (CCI).BackgroundSepsis is an important risk factor for Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and sepsis induced ARDS accounts for 32% of patients. Patients with this subtype of ARDS have a worse prognosis than those with sepsis alone or ARDS, usually facing higher mortality rates and lower success rates of extubation, and have received more attention in clinical practice.MethodsA retrospective observational study was conducted on 118 patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of Yiwu Central Hospital from January 2020 to May 2022. Patients were categorized into two groups: CCI and rapid recovery (RAP), based on the occurrence of CCI. Age, gender, white blood cell count, C-reactive protein, albumin, serum creatinine, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), mNUTRIC score, ICU length of stay, mechanical ventilation duration, and continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) were compared between the two groups. The association between mNUTRIC and CCI in patients with sepsis complicated by ARDS was further examined using three models and multivariate logistic regression.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was utilized to analyze the predictive values of mNUTRIC score, SOFA score, and APACHE II score for predicting the occurrence of CCI in patients with sepsis complicated by ARDS.ResultsThe age, mNUTRIC score, SOFA score, APACHE II score, ICU length of stay, mechanical ventilation duration, and CRRT ratio were significantly higher in the CCI group compared to the RAP group (all P < 0.05). Conversely, there were no statistically significant differences in white blood cell count, C-reactive protein, and albumin levels between the two groups (all P > 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the mNUTRIC score as an independent risk factor for CCI in patients with sepsis complicated by ARDS. The constructed models showed that the mNUTRIC score remained significant, while the SOFA score and APACHE II score did not.The area under the ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the mNUTRIC score had the highest AUC of 0.880, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.808-0.933. The AUC for the SOFA score was 0.864, and for the APACHE II score was 0.825, all of which were statistically significant.ConclusionsThe mNUTRIC score is valuable in predicting the progression of sepsis combined with ARDS to CCI, and may even be superior to the SOFA score and APACHE II score.

Definitions, epidemiology, and outcomes of persistent/chronic critical illness: a scoping review for translation to clinical practice

BACKGROUND

Medical advances in intensive care units (ICUs) have resulted in the emergence of a new patient population-those who survive the initial acute phase of critical illness, but require prolonged ICU stays and develop chronic critical symptoms. This condition, often termed Persistent Critical Illness (PerCI) or Chronic Critical Illness (CCI), remains poorly understood and inconsistently reported across studies, resulting in a lack of clinical practice use. This scoping review aims to systematically review and synthesize the existing literature on PerCI/CCI, with a focus on definitions, epidemiology, and outcomes for its translation to clinical practice.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted using MEDLINE and Scopus, adhering to the PRISMA-ScR guidelines. Peer-reviewed original research articles published until May 31, 2024 that described adult PerCI/CCI in their definitions of patient populations, covariates, and outcomes were included. Data on definitions, epidemiology, and outcomes were extracted by a data charting process from eligible studies and synthesized.

RESULTS

Ninety-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 64 used the term CCI, 18 used PerCI, and 17 used other terms. CCI definitions showed greater variability, while PerCI definitions remained relatively consistent, with an ICU stay ≥ 14 days for CCI and ≥ 10 days for PerCI being the most common. A meta-analysis of the prevalence of PerCI/CCI among the denominators of "all ICU patients", "sepsis", "trauma", and "COVID-19" showed 11% (95% confidence interval 10-12%), 28% (22-34%), 24% (15-33%), and 35% (20-50%), respectively. A meta-analysis of in-hospital mortality was 27% (26-29%) and that of one-year mortality was 45% (32-58%). Meta-analyses of the prevalence of CCI and PerCI showed 17% (16-18%) and 18% (16-20%), respectively, and those for in-hospital mortality were 28% (26-30%) and 26% (24-29%), respectively. Functional outcomes were generally poor, with many survivors requiring long-term care.

CONCLUSIONS

This scoping review synthesized many studies on PerCI/CCI, highlighting the serious impact of PerCI/CCI on patients' long-term outcomes. The results obtained underscore the need for consistent terminology with high-quality research for PerCI/CCI. The results obtained provide important information to be used in discussions with patients and families regarding prognosis and care options.

A prolonged intensive care unit stay defines a worse long-term prognosis - Insights from the critically ill mortality by age (Cimba) study

BACKGROUND

Patients with critical illness often survive the intensive care unit (ICU) at a cost of prolonged length of stay (LOS) and slow recovery. This chronic critically ill disease may lead to long-term poor outcomes, especially in older or frail patients.

OBJECTIVES

The main goal of this study was to address the characteristics and outcomes of patients with prolonged ICU LOS. Mainly, short- and long-term admissions were compared to identify risk factors for persistent critical illness and to characterise the impact on ICU, hospital, and long-term mortality.

METHODS

Subanalysis of a retrospective, multicentric, observational study addressing the 2-year outcome of patients admitted to Portuguese ICUs (the Cimba study). Patients were segregated according to an ICU LOS of ≥14 days.

RESULTS

Data from 37 118 patients were analysed, featuring a median ICU LOS of 4 days (percentile: 25-75 2-9), and a mortality of 16.1% in the ICU, 24.0% in the hospital, and 38.7% after 2 years. A total of 5334 patients (14.4%) had an ICU LOS of ≥14 days (corresponding to 48.9% of all ICU patients/days). Patients with prolonged LOS were more often younger (52.8% vs 46.4%, were ≤65 years of age , p < 0.001), although more severe (Simplified Acute Physiology Score II: 49.1 ± 16.9 vs 41.8 ± 19.5, p < 0.001), and had higher ICU and hospital mortality (18.3% vs 15.7%, and 31.2 vs 22.8%, respectively). Prolonged ICU LOS was linked to an increased risk of dying during the 2-year follow-up (adjusted Cox proportional hazard: 1.65, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Prolonged LOS is associated with a long-term impact on patient prognosis. More careful planning of care should incorporate these data.

The Tri-Steps Model of Critical Conditions in Intensive Care: Introducing a New Paradigm for Chronic Critical Illness

Background: The prevailing model for understanding chronic critical illness is a biphasic model, suggesting phases of acute and chronic critical conditions. A major challenge within this model is the difficulty in determining the timing of the process chronicity. It is likely that the triad of symptoms (inflammation, catabolism, and immunosuppression [ICIS]) could be associated with this particular point. We aimed to explore the impact of the symptom triad (inflammation, catabolism, immunosuppression) on the outcomes of patients hospitalized in intensive care units (ICUs). Methods: The eICU-CRD database with 200,859 ICU admissions was analyzed. Adult patients with the ICIS triad, identified by elevated CRP (>20 mg/L), reduced albumin (<30 g/L), and low lymphocyte counts (<0.8 × 109/L), were included. The cumulative risk of developing ICIS was assessed using the Nelson-Aalen estimator. Results: This retrospective cohort study included 894 patients (485 males, 54%), with 60 (6.7%) developing ICIS. The cumulative risk of ICIS by day 21 was 22.5%, with incidence peaks on days 2-3 and 10-12 after ICU admission. Patients with the ICIS triad had a 2.5-fold higher mortality risk (p = 0.009) and double the likelihood of using vasopressors (p = 0.008). The triad onset day did not significantly affect mortality (p = 0.104). Patients with ICIS also experienced extended hospital (p = 0.041) and ICU stays (p < 0.001). Conclusions: The symptom triad (inflammation, catabolism, immunosuppression) during hospitalization increases mortality risk by 2.5 times (p = 0.009) and reflects the chronicity of the critical condition. Identifying two incidence peaks allows the proposal of a new Tri-steps model of chronic critical illness with acute, extended, and chronic phases.

Factors Associated with Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Receiving Prolonged Ventilatory Support

Background: Since its emergence in early 2020, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated pneumonia has caused a global strain on intensive care unit (ICU) resources with many intubated patients requiring prolonged ventilatory support. Outcomes for patients with COVID-19 who receive prolonged intubation (>21 days) and possible predictors of mortality in this group are not well established. Patients and Methods: Data were prospectively collected from adult patients with COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation from March 2020 through December 2021 across a system of 11 hospitals. The primary end point was in-hospital mortality. Factors associated with mortality were evaluated using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Results: Six hundred six patients were placed on mechanical ventilation for COVID-19 pneumonia during the study period, with in-hospital mortality of 40.3% (n = 244). Increased age (odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.09), increased creatinine (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82), and receiving corticosteroids (OR, 2.68; 95% CI, 1.20-5.98) were associated with mortality. Intubations lasting longer than 21 days (n = 140) had a lower in-hospital mortality of 25.7% (n = 36; p < 0.001). Increasing Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19) and receiving corticosteroids (OR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.06-3.47) were associated with need for prolonged ventilation. In this group, increased age (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.08) and non-English speaking (OR, 3.74; 95% CI, 1.13-12.3) were associated with mortality. Conclusions: In-hospital mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 pneumonia occurs primarily in the first 21 days after intubation, possibly related to the early active inflammatory process. In patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation, increased age and being non-English speaking were associated with mortality.

Characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients assisted by intensivists and nonintensivists

OBJECTIVE:

The aim of this study was to assess the outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19 in an intensive care unit seen by a care team formed by intensive and nonintensive physicians and treatment guided by processes and protocols linked to the “choosing wisely” concept, comparing them with similar data recently published.

METHODS:

An observational cohort including adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit of Hospital Independence between August 2020 and August 2021. Inclusion criteria were 18 years of age or older and there were no exclusion criteria.

RESULTS:

The study included 449 patients, of which 64.1% were referred from the ward, 21.6% from emergency rooms, and 14.2% from another hospital (continuity of attendance). The overall mortality was 48.5%, occurring mainly in the elderly and or those undergoing mechanical ventilation. We did not find any associations between different strata of body mass index and mortality. In the multivariate analysis, the time elapsed between the onset of symptoms and hospital admission, mechanical ventilation, C-reactive protein value at the end of the first week in the intensive care unit, and renal failure were independently associated with mortality. Vaccinated people comprised 8.8% of the sample, with no differences in mortality among the different vaccines, and 13.4% of patients underwent palliative treatment.

CONCLUSIONS:

Patients admitted for acute respiratory syndrome due to SARS-CoV-2 are severe and have a high mortality rate, mainly if submitted to invasive mechanical ventilation. The emergence of acute renal failure marks an especially severe subgroup with increased mortality. Processes and protocols linked to the “choosing-wisely” concept seemed to significantly benefit our intensive care unit since it had a large contingent of nonspecialist physicians.

The Implementation of Palliative Home Care in Southeast Asian Countries: An Integrative Review

In Asia where family caregiving is part of the culture, palliative home care becomes the most suitable service to keep patients close to their family and to reduce costs. There is a wide variety of palliative home care services due to different cultures and levels of involvement of the family. This review aims to explore the implementation of palliative home care in East and Southeast Asian countries. The articles reviewed in this study were obtained from 3 electronic databases: EbscoHost, PubMed, and Scopus. Journal articles that discussed palliative home care for patients with cancer in East and Southeast Asia countries were included. Review papers were excluded. Seven studies were used in the current review. In general, there are 6 services provided for palliative home care in this region, which are daily activity living care, planning and preparation for palliative home care, education and counseling, patients’ follow-up, symptom management, and direct care for family. Most of the programs involve family caregivers during the treatment. The palliative home care team consists of at least a doctor and a nurse. Symptom management is the most common service and direct care for family is the least offered palliative home care service in this region. Alleviating symptoms is one of the targets in palliative care, therefore involving family in symptom management for palliative home care is fundamental. Although caregiving is part of the culture, family members need to be supported to maintain their quality of life.

Erste Evaluation eines Programms zur Frührehabilitation von Langzeitintensivpatient_innen

First evaluation of an early rehabilitation programm for chronically critically ill patients Abstract. Introduction: Chronically critically ill patients are an increasing challenge for teams in intensive care units due to the burden of symptoms and the consumption of resources. Structured multimodal concepts are recommended for nursing care and treatment. A local, interprofessional program for early rehabilitation aims to provide optimal care for patients through a systematic, proactive and holistic treatment process with a rehabilitative focus. The program consists of specific assessments and systematic coordination of interprofessional early rehabilitation. Problem and objective: Interprofessional collaboration requires mutual acceptance and good communication from those involved. The functioning of selected processes as well as the satisfaction of the professionals are topics of a first formative evaluation. Methods: The team evaluated descriptive quality data as well as self-generated structured questionnaires. Results: Specific adjustments were made to the treatment plan for 52 of 112 patients in the program. The assessments are easy to carry out and support systematic early rehabilitation. From the perspective of the professionals involved, both the interprofessional collaboration and their understanding for the patients improved. Discussion and transfer: The program optimizes treatment and promotes good interprofessional collaboration. The formative evaluation provides valuable information for future process changes such as the inclusion of patients as well as further disciplines and program development beyond the boundaries of the intensive care unit.

Cost of Chronic Critically Ill Patients to the Healthcare System: A Single-center Experience from a Developing Country

Background

An increasing number of patients become chronic critically ill (CCI) and dependent on long-term therapies in the intensive care unit (ICU). Mortality and healthcare costs increase in these patients. In order to deal with this problem, the magnitude and risk factors for CCI must first be determined. Therefore, we aimed at evaluating the incidence cost and risk factors for CCI in our ICU.

Materials and methods

This retrospective cohort study was compiled by recruiting patients admitted to our ICU between January 1, 2017, and December 31, 2018. Patients with an ICU stay of more than 21 days were defined as CCI. Patients who did not survive in the first 21 days were excluded from the study because it could be not known whether these patients would progress to CCI. During the study period, 1,166 patients were followed up, and 475 (40%) of them were excluded and 691 patients were included in the final analyses.

Results

During the study period, 691 patients were included in the study and 152 of them (22%) were CCI. Age, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE)-2 score, length of stay, and daily costs were higher in patients with CCI. The cost for a patient with CCI is sixfold that of a patient without CCI. ICU mortality was 47% in patients without CCI and 54% in the CCI patients (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

CCI affects an increasing number of patients and leads to increased mortality rates and cost. Prolonged duration in ICU may cause complications such as secondary infections, sepsis episodes, and acute renal injury. The treatment of these complications may lead to increased mortality and cost.

How to cite this article

Yildirim S, Durmaz Y, Şan Y, Taşkiran İ, Cinleti BA, Kirakli C. Cost of Chronic Critically Ill Patients to the Healthcare System: A Single-center Experience from a Developing Country. Indian J Crit Care Med 2021;25(5):519–523.

Caloric Adequacy in the First Week of Mechanically Ventilated Patients has No Impact on Long-term Daily Life Activities

Aim and objective

The aim and objective of this study is to test the effect of an optimized caloric supply in the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in mechanically ventilated patients on the ability to perform their activities of daily living (ADL) in the long-term.

Materials and methods

A prospective observational study comparing patients who achieved an adequate caloric target (≥80%) vs those whose target was inadequate (<80%). The primary outcome under study is the instrumental ADL (IADL) scale after 6 months of discharge.

Results

Ninety-two patients were evaluated in the ICU and 50 were alive at 6 months. Follow-up was lost for 3 patients and 47 patients were evaluated at ICU and after 6 months. Thirty-four patients reached the energetic target and 13 did not reach it. There was no significant variation in IADL.

Conclusion

The energy adequacy in the first week of hospitalization was achieved by most survivors; however, this conduct does not seem to have influenced the ability to perform ADL after 6 months of discharge.

How to cite this article

Dariano AP, Couto CFL, Rubin BA, Viana MV, Friedman G. Caloric Adequacy in the First Week of Mechanically Ventilated Patients has No Impact on Long-term Daily Life Activities. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(12):1206–1212.

Seven Deadly Sins of Nutrition Therapy in Critically Ill Patients

This article presents 7 nutrition steps that, if not followed by the clinical staff, may be metaphorically considered as "7 deadly sins" of nutrition therapy. In this review, we suggest approaches that must be avoided or accomplished to increase compliance with the "Ten Commandments" of good nutrition practice in the intensive care setting. Multiple aggressive and simultaneous sets of therapies are implemented in the intensive care setting, which include nutrition and metabolic support as important components in these therapies. "Sins" should be remembered as a mnemonic device for nutrition standard care in the intensive care unit; this incorporates nutrition adequacy and protocol adherence.

Pre- and Peri-Operative Factors Associated with Chronic Critical Illness in Liver Transplant Recipients

Background: Chronic critical illness (CCI) is a new and increasing entity that accounts for substantial cost despite its low incidence. We hypothesized that patients with end-stage liver failure undergoing liver transplant would be at high risk for developing CCI. With limited liver donors it is essential to understand pre- and peritransplant predictors of CCI. Methods: To accomplish this we performed a retrospective cohort study at a large academic transplant center of all adult liver transplant patients from 2011 to 2017. We defined CCI as the need for mechanical ventilation for seven days or more post-transplant. Recipients who had re-transplantation during their index admission, acute rejection, or who died during transplant surgery were excluded. Logistic regression was performed using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the likelihood ratio test. Results: We identified 382 transplant recipients. Forty-five (11.8%) developed CCI. Univariable analysis identified 16 pre-transplant factors associated with post-transplant CCI. Subsequent multivariable logistic regression identified eight independent factors associated with CCI in liver transplant recipients including previous liver transplant, acute renal failure, frailty, lower albumin level, higher international normalized ratio, need for mechanical ventilation, and higher systolic pulmonary artery pressure. Pre-transplant factors associated with protection against CCI included higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. Conclusion: The incidence of CCI post-liver transplant is similar to the general population admitted to the intensive care unit. Pre-transplant factors associated with CCI can help identify at-risk patients, and furthermore, promote further research and interventions with the goal to decrease the incidence of CCI in the liver transplant recipients.

Metabolic and Nutritional Characteristics of Long-Stay Critically Ill Patients

Background: insufficient feeding is frequent in the intensive care unit (ICU), which results in poor outcomes. Little is known about the nutrition pattern of patients requiring prolonged ICU stays. The aims of our study are to describe the demographic, metabolic, and nutritional specificities of chronically critically ill (CCI) patients defined by an ICU stay >2 weeks, and to identify an early risk factor. Methods: analysis of consecutive patients prospectively admitted to the CCI program, with the following variables: demographic characteristics, Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS-2002) score, total daily energy from nutritional and non-nutritional sources, protein and glucose intakes, all arterial blood glucose values, length of ICU and hospital stay, and outcome (ICU and 90-day survival). Two phases were considered for the analysis: the first 10 days, and the next 20 days of the ICU stay. Statistics: parametric and non-parametric tests. Results: 150 patients, aged 60 ± 15 years were prospectively included. Median (Q1, Q3) length of ICU stay was 31 (26, 46) days. The mortality was 18% at ICU discharge and 35.3% at 90 days. Non-survivors were older (p = 0.024), tended to have a higher SAPSII score (p = 0.072), with a significantly higher NRS score (p = 0.033). Enteral nutrition predominated, while combined feeding was minimally used. All patients received energy and protein below the ICU’s protocol recommendation. The proportion of days with fasting was 10.8%, being significantly higher in non-survivors (2 versus 3 days; p = 0.038). Higher protein delivery was associated with an increase in prealbumin over time (r² = 0.19, p = 0.027). Conclusions: High NRS scores may identify patients at highest risk of poor outcome when exposed to underfeeding. Further studies are required to evaluate a nutrition strategy for patients with high NRS, addressing combined parenteral nutrition and protein delivery.

Value, Chronic Critical Illness, and Choosing Wisely

Management of limited health-care resources has been of growing concern. Stewardship of health-care dollars and avoidance of low-value care is being increasingly recognized as a matter that affects all practitioners. This review aims to examine a particular pathological state with multifactorial origins: chronic critical illness (CCI). This condition exerts a large toll on society as well as individual patients and their families. Here, we offer a brief review as to the incidence/prevalence of CCI and suggestions for prevention. Emphasis should be placed on the importance of early, open communication among physicians and patients about their end-of-life decisions and advanced directives, so that decisions can be made wisely and with the patient's best interests in mind.

Chronic critical illness: are we saving patients or creating victims?

The technological advancements that allow support for organ dysfunction have led to an increase in survival rates for the most critically ill patients. Some of these patients survive the initial acute critical condition but continue to suffer from organ dysfunction and remain in an inflammatory state for long periods of time. This group of critically ill patients has been described since the 1980s and has had different diagnostic criteria over the years. These patients are known to have lengthy hospital stays, undergo significant alterations in muscle and bone metabolism, show immunodeficiency, consume substantial health resources, have reduced functional and cognitive capacity after discharge, create a sizable workload for caregivers, and present high long-term mortality rates. The aim of this review is to report on the most current evidence in terms of the definition, pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, treatment, and prognosis of persistent critical illness.

The Epidemiology of Chronic Critical Illness After Severe Traumatic Injury at Two Level-One Trauma Centers

OBJECTIVE

To determine the incidence and risk factors of chronic critical illness after severe blunt trauma.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study (NCT01810328).

SETTING

Two level-one trauma centers in the United States.

PATIENTS

One hundred thirty-five adult blunt trauma patients with hemorrhagic shock who survived beyond 48 hours after injury.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Chronic critical illness was defined as an ICU stay lasting 14 days or more with evidence of persistent organ dysfunction. Three subjects (2%) died within the first 7 days, 107 (79%) exhibited rapid recovery and 25 (19%) progressed to chronic critical illness. Patients who developed chronic critical illness were older (55 vs 44-year-old; p = 0.01), had more severe shock (base deficit, -9.2 vs -5.5; p = 0.005), greater organ failure severity (Denver multiple organ failure score, 3.5 ± 2.4 vs 0.8 ± 1.1; p < 0.0001) and developed more infectious complications (84% vs 35%; p < 0.0001). Chronic critical illness patients were more likely to be discharged to a long-term care setting (56% vs 34%; p = 0.008) than to a rehabilitation facility/home. At 4 months, chronic critical illness patients had higher mortality (16.0% vs 1.9%; p < 0.05), with survivors scoring lower in general health measures (p < 0.005). Multivariate analysis revealed age greater than or equal to 55 years, systolic hypotension less than or equal to 70 mm Hg, transfusion greater than or equal to 5 units packed red blood cells within 24 hours, and Denver multiple organ failure score at 72 hours as independent predictors of chronic critical illness (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Although early mortality is low after severe trauma, chronic critical illness is a common trajectory in survivors and is associated with poor long-term outcomes. Advancing age, shock severity, and persistent organ dysfunction are predictive of chronic critical illness. Early identification may facilitate targeted interventions to change the trajectory of this morbid phenotype.

The reality of patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation: a multicenter study

OBJECTIVE

The number of patients who require prolonged mechanical ventilation increased during the last decade, which generated a large population of chronically ill patients. This study established the incidence of prolonged mechanical ventilation in four intensive care units and reported different characteristics, hospital outcomes, and the impact of costs and services of prolonged mechanical ventilation patients (mechanical ventilation dependency ≥ 21 days) compared with non-prolonged mechanical ventilation patients (mechanical ventilation dependency < 21 days).

METHODS

This study was a multicenter cohort study of all patients who were admitted to four intensive care units. The main outcome measures were length of stay in the intensive care unit, hospital, complications during intensive care unit stay, and intensive care unit and hospital mortality.

RESULTS

There were 5,287 admissions to the intensive care units during study period. Some of these patients (41.5%) needed ventilatory support (n = 2,197), and 218 of the patients met criteria for prolonged mechanical ventilation (9.9%). Some complications developed during intensive care unit stay, such as muscle weakness, pressure ulcers, bacterial nosocomial sepsis, candidemia, pulmonary embolism, and hyperactive delirium, were associated with a significantly higher risk of prolonged mechanical ventilation. Prolonged mechanical ventilation patients had a significant increase in intensive care unit mortality (absolute difference = 14.2%, p < 0.001) and hospital mortality (absolute difference = 19.1%, p < 0.001). The prolonged mechanical ventilation group spent more days in the hospital after intensive care unit discharge (26.9 ± 29.3 versus 10.3 ± 20.4 days, p < 0.001) with higher costs.

CONCLUSION

The classification of chronically critically ill patients according to the definition of prolonged mechanical ventilation adopted by our study (mechanical ventilation dependency ≥ 21 days) identified patients with a high risk for complications during intensive care unit stay, longer intensive care unit and hospital stays, high death rates, and higher costs.