Adding a neuroanatomical biomarker to an individualized risk calculator for psychosis: A proof-of-concept study

Brain Age Gap in Early Illness Schizophrenia and the Clinical High-Risk Syndrome: Associations With Experiential Negative Symptoms and Conversion to Psychosis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Brain development/aging is not uniform across individuals,spawning efforts to characterize brain age from a biological perspective to model the effects of disease and maladaptive life processes on the brain. The brain age gap represents the discrepancy between estimated brain biological age and chronological age (in this case, based on structural magnetic resonance imaging, MRI). Structural MRI studies report an increased brain age gap (biological age > chronological age) in schizophrenia, with a greater brain age gap related to greater negative symptom severity. Less is known regarding the nature of this gap early in schizophrenia (ESZ), if this gap represents a psychosis conversion biomarker in clinical high-risk (CHR-P) individuals, and how altered brain development and/or agingmap onto specific symptom facets.

STUDY DESIGN

Using structural MRI, we compared the brain age gap among CHR-P (n = 51), ESZ (n = 78), and unaffected comparison participants (UCP; n = 90), and examined associations with CHR-P psychosis conversion (CHR-P converters n = 10; CHR-P non-converters; n = 23) and positive and negative symptoms.

STUDY RESULTS

ESZ showed a greater brain age gap relative to UCP and CHR-P (Ps < .010). CHR-P individuals who converted to psychosis showed a greater brain age gap (P = .043) relative to CHR-P non-converters. A larger brain age gap in ESZ was associated with increased experiential (P = .008), but not expressive negative symptom severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with schizophrenia pathophysiological models positing abnormal brain maturation, results suggest abnormal brain development is present early in psychosis. An increased brain age gap may be especially relevant to motivational and functional deficits in schizophrenia.

BrainAGE, brain health, and mental disorders: A systematic review

The imaging-based method of brainAGE aims to characterize an individual's vulnerability to age-related brain changes. The present study systematically reviewed brainAGE findings in neuropsychiatric conditions and discussed the potential of brainAGE as a marker for biological age. A systematic PubMed search (from inception to March 6th, 2023) identified 273 articles. The 30 included studies compared brainAGE between neuropsychiatric and healthy groups (n≥50). We presented results qualitatively and adapted a bias risk assessment questionnaire. The imaging modalities, design, and input features varied considerably between studies. While the studies found higher brainAGE in neuropsychiatric conditions (11 mild cognitive impairment/ dementia, 11 schizophrenia spectrum/ other psychotic and bipolar disorder, six depression/ anxiety, two multiple groups), the associations with clinical characteristics were mixed. While brainAGE is sensitive to group differences, limitations include the lack of diverse training samples, multi-modal studies, and external validation. Only a few studies obtained longitudinal data, and all have used algorithms built solely to predict chronological age. These limitations impede the validity of brainAGE as a biological age marker.

Combining Clinical With Cognitive or Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data for Predicting Transition to Psychosis in Ultra High-Risk Patients: Data From the PACE 400 Cohort

BACKGROUND

Multimodal modeling that combines biological and clinical data shows promise in predicting transition to psychosis in individuals who are at ultra-high risk. Individuals who transition to psychosis are known to have deficits at baseline in cognitive function and reductions in gray matter volume in multiple brain regions identified by magnetic resonance imaging.

METHODS

In this study, we used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the additive predictive value of each modality-cognition, cortical structure information, and the neuroanatomical measure of brain age gap-to a previously developed clinical model using functioning and duration of symptoms prior to service entry as predictors in the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) 400 cohort. The PACE 400 study is a well-characterized cohort of Australian youths who were identified as ultra-high risk of transitioning to psychosis using the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS) and followed for up to 18 years; it contains clinical data (from N = 416 participants), cognitive data (n = 213), and magnetic resonance imaging cortical parameters extracted using FreeSurfer (n = 231).

RESULTS

The results showed that neuroimaging, brain age gap, and cognition added marginal predictive information to the previously developed clinical model (fraction of new information: neuroimaging 0%-12%, brain age gap 7%, cognition 0%-16%).

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, adding a second modality to a clinical risk model predicting the onset of a psychotic disorder in the PACE 400 cohort showed little improvement in the fit of the model for long-term prediction of transition to psychosis.

Using brain structural neuroimaging measures to predict psychosis onset for individuals at clinical high-risk

Machine learning approaches using structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) can be informative for disease classification, although their ability to predict psychosis is largely unknown. We created a model with individuals at CHR who developed psychosis later (CHR-PS+) from healthy controls (HCs) that can differentiate each other. We also evaluated whether we could distinguish CHR-PS+ individuals from those who did not develop psychosis later (CHR-PS-) and those with uncertain follow-up status (CHR-UNK). T1-weighted structural brain MRI scans from 1165 individuals at CHR (CHR-PS+, n = 144; CHR-PS-, n = 793; and CHR-UNK, n = 228), and 1029 HCs, were obtained from 21 sites. We used ComBat to harmonize measures of subcortical volume, cortical thickness and surface area data and corrected for non-linear effects of age and sex using a general additive model. CHR-PS+ (n = 120) and HC (n = 799) data from 20 sites served as a training dataset, which we used to build a classifier. The remaining samples were used external validation datasets to evaluate classifier performance (test, independent confirmatory, and independent group [CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK] datasets). The accuracy of the classifier on the training and independent confirmatory datasets was 85% and 73% respectively. Regional cortical surface area measures-including those from the right superior frontal, right superior temporal, and bilateral insular cortices strongly contributed to classifying CHR-PS+ from HC. CHR-PS- and CHR-UNK individuals were more likely to be classified as HC compared to CHR-PS+ (classification rate to HC: CHR-PS+, 30%; CHR-PS-, 73%; CHR-UNK, 80%). We used multisite sMRI to train a classifier to predict psychosis onset in CHR individuals, and it showed promise predicting CHR-PS+ in an independent sample. The results suggest that when considering adolescent brain development, baseline MRI scans for CHR individuals may be helpful to identify their prognosis. Future prospective studies are required about whether the classifier could be actually helpful in the clinical settings.

Improving prediction of psychosis in youth at clinical high-risk: pre-baseline symptom duration and cortical thinning as moderators of the NAPLS2 risk calculator

BACKGROUND

Clinical implementation of risk calculator models in the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has been hindered by heterogeneous risk distributions across study cohorts which could be attributed to pre-ascertainment illness progression. To examine this, we tested whether the duration of attenuated psychotic symptom (APS) worsening prior to baseline moderated performance of the North American prodrome longitudinal study 2 (NAPLS2) risk calculator. We also examined whether rates of cortical thinning, another marker of illness progression, bolstered clinical prediction models.

METHODS

Participants from both the NAPLS2 and NAPLS3 samples were classified as either 'long' or 'short' symptom duration based on time since APS increase prior to baseline. The NAPLS2 risk calculator model was applied to each of these groups. In a subset of NAPLS3 participants who completed follow-up magnetic resonance imaging scans, change in cortical thickness was combined with the individual risk score to predict conversion to psychosis.

RESULTS

The risk calculator models achieved similar performance across the combined NAPLS2/NAPLS3 sample [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], the long duration group (AUC = 0.71), and the short duration group (AUC = 0.71). The shorter duration group was younger and had higher baseline APS than the longer duration group. The addition of cortical thinning improved the prediction of conversion significantly for the short duration group (AUC = 0.84), with a moderate improvement in prediction for the longer duration group (AUC = 0.78).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that early illness progression differs among CHR-P patients, is detectable with both clinical and neuroimaging measures, and could play an essential role in the prediction of clinical outcomes.

Neuroimaging-Based Brain Age Estimation: A Promising Personalized Biomarker in Neuropsychiatry

It is now possible to estimate an individual's brain age via brain scans and machine-learning models. This validated technique has opened up new avenues for addressing clinical questions in neurology, and, in this review, we summarize the many clinical applications of brain-age estimation in neuropsychiatry and general populations. We first provide an introduction to typical neuroimaging modalities, feature extraction methods, and machine-learning models that have been used to develop a brain-age estimation framework. We then focus on the significant findings of the brain-age estimation technique in the field of neuropsychiatry as well as the usefulness of the technique for addressing clinical questions in neuropsychiatry. These applications may contribute to more timely and targeted neuropsychiatric therapies. Last, we discuss the practical problems and challenges described in the literature and suggest some future research directions.

Advanced Brain-Age in Psychotic Psychopathology: Evidence for Transdiagnostic Neurodevelopmental Origins

Schizophrenia is characterized by abnormal brain structure such as global reductions in gray matter volume. Machine learning models trained to estimate the age of brains from structural neuroimaging data consistently show advanced brain-age to be associated with schizophrenia. Yet, it is unclear whether advanced brain-age is specific to schizophrenia compared to other psychotic disorders, and whether evidence that brain structure is "older" than chronological age actually reflects neurodevelopmental rather than atrophic processes. It is also unknown whether advanced brain-age is associated with genetic liability for psychosis carried by biological relatives of people with schizophrenia. We used the Brain-Age Regression Analysis and Computation Utility Software (BARACUS) prediction model and calculated the residualized brain-age gap of 332 adults (163 individuals with psychotic disorders: 105 schizophrenia, 17 schizoaffective disorder, 41 bipolar I disorder with psychotic features; 103 first-degree biological relatives; 66 controls). The model estimated advanced brain-ages for people with psychosis in comparison to controls and relatives, with no differences among psychotic disorders or between relatives and controls. Specifically, the model revealed an enlarged brain-age gap for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder with psychotic features. Advanced brain-age was associated with lower cognitive and general functioning in the full sample. Among relatives, cognitive performance and schizotypal symptoms were related to brain-age gap, suggesting that advanced brain-age is associated with the subtle expressions associated with psychosis. Exploratory longitudinal analyses suggested that brain aging was not accelerated in individuals with a psychotic disorder. In sum, we found that people with psychotic disorders, irrespective of specific diagnosis or illness severity, show indications of non-progressive, advanced brain-age. These findings support a transdiagnostic, neurodevelopmental formulation of structural brain abnormalities in psychotic psychopathology.

Toward Generalizable and Transdiagnostic Tools for Psychosis Prediction: An Independent Validation and Improvement of the NAPLS-2 Risk Calculator in the Multisite PRONIA Cohort

BACKGROUND

Transition to psychosis is among the most adverse outcomes of clinical high-risk (CHR) syndromes encompassing ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom states. Clinical risk calculators may facilitate an early and individualized interception of psychosis, but their real-world implementation requires thorough validation across diverse risk populations, including young patients with depressive syndromes.

METHODS

We validated the previously described NAPLS-2 (North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study 2) calculator in 334 patients (26 with transition to psychosis) with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) drawn from the multisite European PRONIA (Personalised Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management) study. Patients were categorized into three risk enrichment levels, ranging from UHR, over CHR, to a broad-risk population comprising patients with CHR or ROD (CHR|ROD). We assessed how risk enrichment and different predictive algorithms influenced prognostic performance using reciprocal external validation.

RESULTS

After calibration, the NAPLS-2 model predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy (BAC) (sensitivity, specificity) of 68% (73%, 63%) in the PRONIA-UHR cohort, 67% (74%, 60%) in the CHR cohort, and 70% (73%, 66%) in patients with CHR|ROD. Multiple model derivation in PRONIA-CHR|ROD and validation in NAPLS-2-UHR patients confirmed that broader risk definitions produced more accurate risk calculators (CHR|ROD-based vs. UHR-based performance: 67% [68%, 66%] vs. 58% [61%, 56%]). Support vector machines were superior in CHR|ROD (BAC = 71%), while ridge logistic regression and support vector machines performed similarly in CHR (BAC = 67%) and UHR cohorts (BAC = 65%). Attenuated psychotic symptoms predicted psychosis across risk levels, while younger age and reduced processing speed became increasingly relevant for broader risk cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical-neurocognitive machine learning models operating in young patients with affective and CHR syndromes facilitate a more precise and generalizable prediction of psychosis. Future studies should investigate their therapeutic utility in large-scale clinical trials.

Machine learning for brain age prediction: Introduction to methods and clinical applications

The rise of machine learning has unlocked new ways of analysing structural neuroimaging data, including brain age prediction. In this state-of-the-art review, we provide an introduction to the methods and potential clinical applications of brain age prediction. Studies on brain age typically involve the creation of a regression machine learning model of age-related neuroanatomical changes in healthy people. This model is then applied to new subjects to predict their brain age. The difference between predicted brain age and chronological age in a given individual is known as ‘brain-age gap’. This value is thought to reflect neuroanatomical abnormalities and may be a marker of overall brain health. It may aid early detection of brain-based disorders and support differential diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment choices. These applications could lead to more timely and more targeted interventions in age-related disorders.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Incorporating cortisol into the NAPLS2 individualized risk calculator for prediction of psychosis

BACKGROUND

Risk calculators are useful tools that can help clinicians and researchers better understand an individual's risk of conversion to psychosis. The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) Individualized Risk Calculator has good predictive accuracy but could be potentially improved by the inclusion of a biomarker. Baseline cortisol, a measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis functioning that is impacted by biological vulnerability to stress and exposure to environmental stressors, has been shown to be higher among individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHRP) who eventually convert to psychosis than those who do not. We sought to determine whether the addition of baseline cortisol to the NAPLS2 risk calculator improved the performance of the risk calculator.

METHODS

Participants were drawn from the NAPLS2 study. A subset of NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol samples. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated the likelihood of an individual's eventual conversion to psychosis based on demographic and clinical variables in addition to baseline cortisol levels.

RESULTS

A total of 417 NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol and were included in the analysis. Higher levels of cortisol were predictive of conversion to psychosis in a univariate model (C-index = 0.59, HR = 21.5, p-value = 0.004). The inclusion of cortisol in the risk calculator model resulted in a statistically significant improvement in performance from the original risk calculator model (C-index = 0.78, SE = 0.028).

CONCLUSIONS

Salivary cortisol is an inexpensive and non-invasive biomarker that could improve individual predictions about conversion to psychosis and treatment decisions for CHR-P individuals.

Identifying neural signatures mediating behavioral symptoms and psychosis onset: High-dimensional whole brain functional mediation analysis

Along the pathway from behavioral symptoms to the development of psychotic disorders sits the multivariate mediating brain. The functional organization and structural topography of large-scale multivariate neural mediators among patients with brain disorders, however, are not well understood. Here, we design a high-dimensional brain-wide functional mediation framework to investigate brain regions that intermediate between baseline behavioral symptoms and future conversion to full psychosis among individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). Using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from 263 CHR subjects, we extract an α brain atlas and a β brain atlas: the former underlines brain areas associated with prodromal symptoms and the latter highlights brain areas associated with disease onset. In parallel, we identify and separate mediators that potentially positively and negatively mediate symptoms and psychosis, respectively, and quantify the effect of each neural mediator on disease development. Taken together, these results paint a brain-wide picture of neural markers that are potentially mediating behavioral symptoms and the development of psychotic disorders; additionally, they underscore a statistical framework that is useful to uncover large-scale intermediating variables in a regulatory biological system.

Implementing Precision Psychiatry: A Systematic Review of Individualized Prediction Models for Clinical Practice

BACKGROUND

The impact of precision psychiatry for clinical practice has not been systematically appraised. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of validated prediction models to estimate the individual risk of being affected with a condition (diagnostic), developing outcomes (prognostic), or responding to treatments (predictive) in mental disorders.

METHODS

PRISMA/RIGHT/CHARMS-compliant systematic review of the Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Reviews, and Ovid/PsycINFO databases from inception until July 21, 2019 (PROSPERO CRD42019155713) to identify diagnostic/prognostic/predictive prediction studies that reported individualized estimates in psychiatry and that were internally or externally validated or implemented. Random effect meta-regression analyses addressed the impact of several factors on the accuracy of prediction models.

FINDINGS

Literature search identified 584 prediction modeling studies, of which 89 were included. 10.4% of the total studies included prediction models internally validated (n = 61), 4.6% models externally validated (n = 27), and 0.2% (n = 1) models considered for implementation. Across validated prediction modeling studies (n = 88), 18.2% were diagnostic, 68.2% prognostic, and 13.6% predictive. The most frequently investigated condition was psychosis (36.4%), and the most frequently employed predictors clinical (69.5%). Unimodal compared to multimodal models (β = .29, P = .03) and diagnostic compared to prognostic (β = .84, p < .0001) and predictive (β = .87, P = .002) models were associated with increased accuracy.

INTERPRETATION

To date, several validated prediction models are available to support the diagnosis and prognosis of psychiatric conditions, in particular, psychosis, or to predict treatment response. Advancements of knowledge are limited by the lack of implementation research in real-world clinical practice. A new generation of implementation research is required to address this translational gap.

Individualized Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Patients With Psychosis Risk Syndromes: A Meta-analytic View on the State of the Art

BACKGROUND

The clinical high risk (CHR) paradigm has facilitated research into the underpinnings of help-seeking individuals at risk for developing psychosis, aiming at predicting and possibly preventing transition to the overt disorder. Statistical methods such as machine learning and Cox regression have provided the methodological basis for this research by enabling the construction of diagnostic models (i.e., distinguishing CHR individuals from healthy individuals) and prognostic models (i.e., predicting a future outcome) based on different data modalities, including clinical, neurocognitive, and neurobiological data. However, their translation to clinical practice is still hindered by the high heterogeneity of both CHR populations and methodologies applied.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed the literature on diagnostic and prognostic models built on Cox regression and machine learning. Furthermore, we conducted a meta-analysis on prediction performances investigating heterogeneity of methodological approaches and data modality.

RESULTS

A total of 44 articles were included, covering 3707 individuals for prognostic studies and 1052 individuals for diagnostic studies (572 CHR patients and 480 healthy control subjects). CHR patients could be classified against healthy control subjects with 78% sensitivity and 77% specificity. Across prognostic models, sensitivity reached 67% and specificity reached 78%. Machine learning models outperformed those applying Cox regression by 10% sensitivity. There was a publication bias for prognostic studies yet no other moderator effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results may be driven by substantial clinical and methodological heterogeneity currently affecting several aspects of the CHR field and limiting the clinical implementability of the proposed models. We discuss conceptual and methodological harmonization strategies to facilitate more reliable and generalizable models for future clinical practice.