Ecology of avian influenza viruses in migratory birds wintering within the Yangtze River wetlands

Surveillance of avian influenza viruses from 2014 to 2018 in South Korea

Surveillance of influenza A viruses (IAVs) among migratory waterfowl is a first step in understanding the ecology, biology, and pathogenicity of IAVs. As part of the nationwide surveillance effort for IAVs in fowl in South Korea, we collected environmental fecal samples in different migratory bird stopover sites in South Korea during the winter seasons within November 2014 through January 2018. We collected a total of 6758 fecal samples, 75 of which were positive for IAV (1.11% positivity). Prevalence of IAVs varied per site and per year. Based on sequencing, the most prevalent hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes were H1, H6, and H5, and the most prevalent neuraminidase (NA) subtypes were N1, N3, and N2. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the genes we isolated clustered with reported isolates collected from other locations along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. All the H5 and H7 isolates collected in this study were of low pathogenicity. None of the N1 and N2 genes carried amino acid markers of resistance against NA inhibitors. The winter 2016-2017 subset were primarily borne by migratory geese (Anser spp.). These results suggest that majority of the IAVs circulating among migratory wild fowl in South Korea in 2014-2018 were of low pathogenicity.

Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of "migratory escape", i.e., the migration allows the geese to "escape" from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their driving factors based on PLS-SEM: A case study in Wuhan

Globally, wetlands have been severely damaged due to natural environment and human activities. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their driving forces is essential for their effective protection. This study proposes a research framework to explore the interaction between the natural environment and human activities and its impact on wetland changes, by introducing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, then applying the methodology in Wuhan, a typical wetland city in China. The validity and reliability evaluation indicated that the PLS-SEM model is reasonable. The results showed that the area of wetlands in Wuhan decreased by 10.98% in 1990-2018 and four obvious direct pathways of influence were found. Positive soil and terrain conditions are conducive to maintaining wetlands, while rapid urbanization drastically reduce the distribution of wetlands. It is remarkable that the impact of climate on wetlands is gradually shifting from positive to negative. Furthermore, four potential indirect impact pathways affecting wetland distribution shown that urbanization and climate enhance the negative impact of terrain on wetland distribution, while their impacts on soil weaken soil's direct positive impact. This study provides a quantitative methodology for determining the causes of wetland loss; it can also be applied to other cities or regions, which is essential for applying more effective measures to protect wetlands.