Linked models to assess the impacts of climate change on nitrogen in a Norwegian river basin and FJORD system

Impact of climate change on water quality evolution in cold regions using a water-heat-nitrogen processes coupled model

Cold regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Thus, evaluating the response of water quality evolution to climate change in cold regions is vital for formulating adaptive countermeasures for pollution control under changing climatic conditions. Taking the Songhua River Basin (SRB) in Northeast China as the target area, we designed a water-heat-nitrogen coupled model based on the principle of water and energy transfer and nitrogen cycle processes model (WEP-N) in cold regions. The impact of climate change on pollution load and water quality was analyzed during the freezing, thawing, and non-freeze-thaw periods by taking the sudden change point (1998) of precipitation and runoff evolution in the SRB as the cut-off. The ammonia nitrogen load at Jiamusi station, the outlet control station in the SRB, was decreased by 1502.9 t in the change period (1999-2018) over the base period (1956-1998), with a - 9.2% decrease due to climate change. Compared to the ammonia nitrogen load during the base period, the ammonia nitrogen load decreased by - 171.3, - 506.9, and - 824.8 t during the freezing, thawing, and non-freeze-thaw periods, respectively, while the coefficient of variation showed an increasing trend during three periods, especially during the freezing and thawing periods. However, the water quality changes differed among periods owing to varying runoff during the year. Meanwhile, increasing runoff and decreasing ammonia nitrogen load improved water quality at Jiamusi station during the freezing period. During the thawing and non-freeze-thaw period, the water quality deteriorated due to the decrease in runoff more than the decrease in ammonia nitrogen load. Hence, the impact of climate change on water quality during thawing and non-freeze-thaw periods should be monitored to potentially offset the human influence on pollution control. The difference in the rate of change of the proportion of Class IV water between the two models with or without the soil freeze-thaw mechanism was 15.9%. The result shows that the application of a model that does not consider the freeze-thaw mechanism might slightly exaggerate the impact of climate change on water quality.

Discharge dynamics of agricultural diffuse pollution under different rainfall patterns in the middle Yangtze river

Rainfall plays a crucial role in influencing the loss of agricultural diffuse pollution. The middle Yangtze River region is well-know for its humid climate and numerous agricultural activities. Thus, this study quantitatively analyzed the concentration and distribution of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) load and loss in a major tributary of the middle Yangtze River under different rainfall patterns by using sampling analysis and SWAT model simulation. The total nitrogen (TN) and nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-) concentrations were 1.604-3.574 and 0.830-2.556 mg/L, respectively. The total phosphorous (TP) and Soluble Reactive Phosphorus (SRP) were 2-148 and 2-104 μg/L, respectively. The modeling results demonstrated that higher rainfall intensity led to greater load and loss flux of diffuse pollutant at the outlet. Organic nitrogen (ORGN) is the main nitrogen form transported from the subbasin to the reach, while organic phosphorus (ORGP) and inorganic phosphorus (INORGP) were transported at similar amounts. Under the condition of conventional rainfall, the outlet reaches mainly transported NO3-, and ORGN gradually increased when rainstorm events occurred. The ratio of INORGP to ORGP was relatively stable. During extreme rainfall event, rainfall is the dominant element of agricultural diffuse pollution. A strong positive correlation exists between rainfall intensity and pollution loss during rainstorms. Storm rain events were the main source of TN and TP losses. Few storm rain days generated pollutants that accounted for a large proportion of the total loss, and their impact on TP loss was significantly greater than that of TN. The influence of storm rain on TN is mainly the increase in runoff, while TP is sensitive to the runoff and sediment transport promoted by rainfall. By setting different precipitation scenarios, it was confirmed that under the same rainfall amount, short-term storm rain has the most significant impact on the TN load, whereas TP load may be influenced more by the combined effects of rainfall duration and intensity. Therefore, to reduce the impact of agricultural diffuse pollution, it is important to take targeted measures for the rainstorm days.

The impact of climate change on the water quality of Baiyangdian Lake (China) in the past 30 years (1991-2020)

Climate change significantly influenced the water quality of lakes in recent decades. This study investigated the effects of climate change on the water quality of Baiyangdian Lake (China) in the past 30 years (1991-2020) using correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the generalized additive model (GAM). The results show that water quality grade, chemical oxygen demand (COD), total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, and annual average and minimum air temperatures of the lake showed significant differences (p < 0.05) in the one-way ANOVA during the studied period. The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) and TP, annual average and minimum air temperatures, and annual precipitation decreased, while the COD and total nitrogen (TN) concentration, annual maximum temperature, and monthly maximum precipitation increased. The annual average and minimum air temperature affected all water quality variables and explained 12.3 %-54.5 % of variation deviation in correlation and GAM analyses, indicating that the changes of air temperature influenced the water temperature, which then affected the biochemical reaction rates leading to changes in water quality. The precipitation factors explained 10.5 % (TN) to 54.8 % (TP) of variation deviation, implying that the increase in precipitation improved water quality by diluting the COD concentration. However, excessive precipitation also accelerated the endogenous release of phosphorus in sediments by increasing the TP concentration. Additionally, extreme climate factors correlated with some water quality variables and explained 57.7 %-95.9 % of the total variances in correlation and regression analyses, suggesting that the extreme temperatures changed the nitrogen and DO concentration to aggravate lake pollution. However, the extreme precipitation purified the water through dilution. This study will facilitate to understand the impacts of climate change on water quality and find appropriate adaptation measures for ecosystem management of shallow lakes.

Are the Water Quality Improvement Measures of China's South-to-North Water Diversion Project Effective? A Case Study of Xuzhou Section in the East Route

Xuzhou is the hub city of the east route of China's South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project and implemented dozens of measures to ensure the water quality security of the water transmission line. In order to detect the effectiveness of water quality improvement measures, the monthly water quality data of five water quality parameters from 2005 to 2015 of six state-controlled monitoring sites in Xuzhou section were selected for analysis. The results showed that the water quality improved from 2.95 in 2005 to 2.74 in 2015, as assessed by the comprehensive water quality identification index (CWQII), and basically reached the Class III standards of China's Environmental Quality Standard for Surface Water (GB3838-2002) from 2011 to 2015. The trend analysis showed that the decline of ammonia nitrogen (NH₃-N) was the most obvious among the five water quality parameters. However, the concentrations of phosphorus (TP) showed significant upward trends at three sites. The positive abrupt change of time series of water quality occurred in 2009-2011. The identification of influencing factors of water quality changes by multivariate statistical methods found that the urbanization factor accompanied by a decrease in agricultural nonpoint source pollution emissions and the enhancement of wastewater treatment capacity, the closure of factories with substandard emissions and precipitation were the major influencing factors of most water quality parameters, which confirmed the effectiveness of measures for water quality improvement in Xuzhou.

Modeling response of water quality parameters to land-use and climate change in a temperate, mesotrophic lake

Lake Auburn, Maine, USA, is a historically unproductive lake that has experienced multiple algal blooms since 2011. The lake is the water supply source for a population of ~60,000. We modeled past temperature, and concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO) and phosphorus (P) in Lake Auburn by considering the catchment and internal contributions of P as well as atmospheric factors, and predicted the change in lake water quality in response to future climate and land-use changes. A stream hydrology and P-loading model (SimplyP) was used to generate input from two major tributaries into a lake model (MyLake-Sediment) to simulate physical mixing, chemical dynamics, and sediment geochemistry in Lake Auburn from 2013 to 2017. Simulations of future lake water quality were conducted using meteorological boundary conditions derived from recent historical data and climate model projections for high greenhouse-gas emission cases. The effects of future land development on lake water quality for the 2046 to 2055 time period under different land-use and climate change scenarios were also simulated. Our results indicate that lake P enrichment is more responsive to extreme storm events than increasing air temperatures, mean precipitation, or windstorms; loss of fish habitat is driven by windstorms, and to a lesser extent an increasing water temperature; and catchment development further leads to water quality decline. All simulations also show that the lake is susceptible to both internal and external P loadings. Simulation of temperature, DO, and P proved to be an effective means for predicting the loss of water quality under changing land-use and climate scenarios.

Climate Change Impacts on Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation and Water Quality in the Hetao Area, China

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) is an extreme hydrological phenomenon caused by meteorological anomalies. To combat the climate change, the watershed integrated management model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT)—was used to simulate DFAA, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) from 1961 to 2050, based on measured precipitation data in the Hetao area and the downscaled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios. In the future, the increase in temperature and the increase in extreme precipitation will aggravate the pollution of water bodies. Results indicate that the risk of water quality exceeding the standard will increase when DFAA happens, and the risk of water quality exceeding the standard was the greatest in the case of drought-to-flood events. Results also indicate that, against the backdrop of increasing temperature and increasing precipitation in the future, the frequency of long-cycle and short-cycle drought-flood abrupt alternation index (LDFAI, SDFAI) in the Hetao area will continue to decrease, and the number of DFAA situations will decrease. However, the zone of high-frequency DFAA situations will move westward from the eastern Ulansuhai Nur Lake, continuing to pose a risk of water quality deterioration in that region. These results could provide a basis for flood control, drought resistance and pollution control in the Hetao and other areas.

Evolution of Drought⁻Flood Abrupt Alternation and Its Impacts on Surface Water Quality from 2020 to 2050 in the Luanhe River Basin

It has become a hot issue to study extreme climate change and its impacts on water quality. In this context, this study explored the evolution characteristics of drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) and its impacts on total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP) pollution, from 2020 to 2050, in the Luanhe river basin (LRB), based on the predicted meteorological data of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios and simulated surface water quality data of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results show that DFAA occurred more frequently in summer, with an increasing trend from northwest to southeast of the LRB, basically concentrated in the downstream plain area, and the irrigation area. Meanwhile, most of the DFAA events were in light level. The incidence of TN pollution was much larger than the incidence of TP pollution and simultaneous occurrence of TN and TP pollution. The TN pollution was more serious than TP pollution in the basin. When DFAA occurred, TN pollution almost occurred simultaneously. Also, when TP pollution occurred, the TN pollution occurred simultaneously. These results could provide some references for the effects and adaptation-strategies study of extreme climate change and its influence on surface water quality.

Potential Changes of Annual-Averaged Nutrient Export in the South Saskatchewan River Basin under Climate and Land-Use Change Scenarios

Climate and land-use changes modify the physical functioning of river basins and, in particular, influence the transport of nutrients from land to water. In large-scale basins, where a variety of climates, topographies, soil types and land uses co-exist to form a highly heterogeneous environment, a more complex nutrient dynamic is imposed by climate and land-use changes. This is the case of the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) that, along with the North Saskatchewan River, forms one of the largest river systems in western Canada. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed (SPARROW) model is therefore implemented to assess water quality in the basin, in order to describe spatial and temporal patterns and identify those factors and processes that affect water quality. Forty-five climate and land-use change scenarios comprehended by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were incorporated into the model to explain how total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) export could vary across the basin in 30, 60 and 90 years from now. According to model results, annual averages of TN and TP export in the SSR are going to increase in the range 0.9–1.28 kg km − 2 year − 1 and 0.12–0.17 kg km − 2 year − 1 , respectively, by the end of the century, due to climate and land-use changes. Higher increases of TP compared to TN are expected since TP and TN are going to increase ∼36% and ∼21%, respectively, by the end of the century. This research will support management plans in order to mitigate nutrient export under future changes of climate and land use.

Modelling phosphorus loading and algal blooms in a Nordic agricultural catchment-lake system under changing land-use and climate

A model network comprising climate models, a hydrological model, a catchment-scale model for phosphorus biogeochemistry, and a lake thermodynamics and plankton dynamics model was used to simulate phosphorus loadings, total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in Lake Vansjø, Southern Norway. The model network was automatically calibrated against time series of hydrological, chemical and biological observations in the inflowing river and in the lake itself using a Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Climate projections from three global climate models (GCM: HadRM3, ECHAM5r3 and BCM) were used. The GCM model HadRM3 predicted the highest increase in temperature and precipitation and yielded the highest increase in total phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations in the lake basin over the scenario period of 2031-2060. Despite the significant impact of climate change on these aspects of water quality, it is minimal when compared to the much larger effect of changes in land-use. The results suggest that implementing realistic abatement measures will remain a viable approach to improving water quality in the context of climate change.

Modeling the stream water nitrate dynamics in a 60,000-km2 European catchment, the Garonne, southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed under the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO(3)-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distributed catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO(3)-N patterns at large spatial (>300 km(2)) and temporal (> or = monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - how can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed.

Long-term increase in dissolved organic carbon in streamwaters in Norway is response to reduced acid deposition

Concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in freshwaters have increased significantly in Europe and North America, but the driving mechanisms are poorly understood. Here, we test if the significant increase in TOC (total organic carbon, 90-95% DOC) in three acid-sensitive catchments in Norway of 14 to 36% between 1985 and 2003 is related to climate, hydrology, and/or acid deposition. Catchment TOC export increased between 10 and 53%, which was significant at one site only. The seasonal variation in TOC was primarily climatically controlled, while the deposition of SO4 and NO3--negatively related to TOC--explained the long-term increase in TOC. We propose increased humic charge and reduced ionic strength--both of which increase organic matter solubility--as mechanistic explanations for the statistical relation between reduced acid deposition and increased TOC. Between 1985 and 2003, ionic strength decreased significantly at all sites, while the charge density of TOC increased at two of the sites from 1-2 meq g(-1) C to about 5 meq g(-1) C and remained constant at the third site at 5 meq g(-1) C. The solubility of organic matter is discussed in terms of the pH-dependent deprotonation of carboxylic groups and the ionic strength-dependent repulsion of organic molecules.