Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

Assembling the climate story: use of storyline approaches in climate-related science

Storylines are introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of this concept by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of purposes, understandings, and methodologies. This semi-systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios-familiar for their use in IPCC reports-discourse-analytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening peer-reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, 270 articles are selected, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. The results indicate that each scholarly community works with a finite and different set of methods and diverging understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. This article proposes that cross-pollination among the approaches can improve the usefulness and usability of climate-related storylines. Among good practices are the involvement of a broader range of scientific disciplines and expertise, use of mixed-methods, assessment of storylines against a wider set of quality criteria, and targeted stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change

Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and late-century time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low-B1, moderate-A1B, and high-A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses.

Biodiversity matters in feedbacks between climate change and air quality: a study using an individual-based model

Air quality is closely associated with climate change via the biosphere because plants release large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOC) that mediate both gaseous pollutants and aerosol dynamics. Earlier studies, which considered only leaf physiology and simply scale up from leaf-level enhancements of emissions, suggest that climate warming enhances whole forest VOC emissions, and these increased VOC emissions aggravate ozone pollution and secondary organic aerosol formation. Using an individual-based forest VOC emissions model, UVAFME-VOC, that simulates system-level emissions by explicitly simulating forest community dynamics to the individual tree level, ecological competition among the individuals of differing size and age, and radiative transfer and leaf function through the canopy, we find that climate warming only sometimes stimulates isoprene emissions (the single largest source of non-methane hydrocarbon) in a southeastern U.S. forest. These complex patterns result from the combination of higher temperatures' stimulating emissions at the leaf level but decreasing the abundance of isoprene-emitting taxa at the community level by causing a decline in the abundance of isoprene-emitting species (Quercus spp.). This ecological effect eventually outweighs the physiological one, thus reducing overall emissions. Such reduced emissions have far-reaching implications for the climate-air-quality relationships that have been established on the paradigm of warming-enhancement VOC emissions from vegetation. This local scale modeling study suggests that community ecology rather than only individual physiology should be integrated into future studies of biosphere-climate-chemistry interactions.

Long-term monitoring of soil microbiological activities in two forest sites in South tyrol in the italian alps

We monitored microbiological properties in two forest sites over a period of 17 years (1993-2010) within the International Cooperative Programme on Integrated Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Ecosystems (ICP IM). The two study sites were located in South Tyrol in the Italian Alps at altitudes of 1,737 m a.s.l. (subalpine site IT01) and 570 m a.s.l. (submontane site IT02). Soil samples were collected in the late spring and autumn of 1993, 2000, and 2010, and were characterized by measuring respiration, key enzyme activities involved in the C, N, P, and S cycles and litter degradation, and the abundance of viable bacterial and fungal populations. Over the study period, an increase in mean annual air temperatures at both sites (+0.6°C and +0.8°C at IT01 and IT02, respectively) was calculated from trendlines. Significantly lower mean annual air temperatures, higher temperature fluctuations, and higher annual precipitation rates were observed at site IT01 than at site IT02. Subalpine site IT01 was characterized by significantly lower microbial activity (respiration, enzymes) and abundance than those at submontane site IT02. The year of sampling had a significant effect on all the parameters investigated, except for nitrification. Fungal abundance decreased consistently over the study period, while no consistent trend was noted among the other parameters investigated. Season only affected a few of the measured microbiological parameters: respiration and bacterial numbers were significantly higher in the spring than in the autumn, while the opposite was noted for xylanase and phosphatase activities. Soil fungi contributed essentially to xylanase and protease activities, while soil bacteria were mainly involved in degradation processes that required the activity of sulfatase.

Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.