Sensitivity analyses of MAGIC modelled predictions of future impacts of whole-tree harvest on soil calcium supply and stream acid neutralizing capacity

Merits and Limitations of Element Balances as a Forest Planning Tool for Harvest Intensities and Sustainable Nutrient Management—A Case Study from Germany

Climate change and rising energy costs have led to increasing interest in the use of tree harvest residues as feedstock for bioenergy in recent years. With an increasing use of wood biomass and harvest residues, essential nutrient elements are removed from the forest ecosystems. Hence, nutrient sustainable management is mandatory for planning of intensive forest use. We used soil nutrient balances to identify regions in Germany where the output of base cations by leaching and biomass utilization was not balanced by the input via weathering and atmospheric deposition. The effects of conventional stem harvesting, stem harvesting without bark, and whole-tree harvesting on Ca, Mg and K balances were studied. The nutrient balances were calculated using regular forest monitoring data supplemented by additional data from scientific projects. Effective mitigation management strategies and options are discussed and calculations for the compensation of the potential depletion of nutrients in the soil are presented.

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes.

Long-term predictions of ecosystem acidification and recovery

This paper considers the long-term (500year) consequences of continued acid deposition, using a small forested catchment in S. England as an example. The MAGIC acidification model was calibrated to the catchment using data for the year 2000, and run backwards in time for 200years, and forwards for 500. Validation data for model predictions were provided by various stream and soil measurements made between 1977 and 2013. The model hindcast suggests that pre-industrial stream conditions were very different from those measured in 2000. Acid Neutralising Capacity (ANC) was +150μeqL(-1) and pH7.1: there was little nitrate (NO3). By the year 2000, acid deposition had reduced the pH to 4.2 and ANC to c. -100μeqL(-1), and NO3 was increasing in the stream. The future state of the catchment was modelled using actual deposition reductions up to 2013, and then based on current emission reduction commitments. This leads to substantial recovery, to pH6.1, ANC +43μeqL(-1), though it takes c. 250years. Then, however, steady acidification resumes, due to continued N accumulation in the catchment and leaching of NO3. Soil data collected using identical methods in 1978 and 2013 show that MAGIC correctly predicts the direction of change, but the observed data show more extreme changes - reasons for this are discussed. Three cycles of forest growth were modelled - this reduces NO3 output substantially during the active growth phase, and increases stream pH and ANC, but acidifies the soil which continues to accumulate nitrogen. The assumptions behind these results are discussed, and it is concluded that unmanaged ecosystems will not return to a pre-industrial state in the foreseeable future.

Boreal forest riparian zones regulate stream sulfate and dissolved organic carbon

In boreal forest catchments, solute transfer to streams is controlled by hydrological and biogeochemical processes occurring in the riparian zone (RZ). However, RZs are spatially heterogeneous and information about solute chemistry is typically limited. This is problematic when making inferences about stream chemistry. Hypothetically, the strength of links between riparian and stream chemistry is time-scale dependent. Using a ten-year (2003-2012) dataset from a northern Swedish catchment, we evaluated the suitability of RZ data to infer stream dynamics at different time scales. We focus on the role of the RZ versus upslope soils in controlling sulfate (SO4(2)(-)) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). A priori, declines in acid deposition and redox-mediated SO4(2)(-) pulses control sulfur (S) fluxes and pool dynamics, which in turn affect dissolved organic carbon (DOC). We found that the catchment is currently a net source of S, presumably due to release of the S pool accumulated during the acidification period. In both, RZ and stream, SO4(2-) concentrations are declining over time, whereas DOC is increasing. No temporal trends in SO4(2-) and DOC were observed in upslope mineral soils. SO4(2-) explained the variation of DOC in stream and RZ, but not in upslope mineral soil. Moreover, as SO4(2-) decreased with time, temporal variability of DOC increased. These observations indicate that: (1) SO4(2-) is still an important driver of DOC trends in boreal catchments and (2) RZ processes control stream SO4(2-) and subsequently DOC independently of upslope soils. These phenomena are likely occurring in many regions recovering from acidification. Because water flows through a heterogeneous mosaic of RZs before entering the stream, upscaling information from limited RZ data to the catchment level is problematic at short-time scales. However, for long-term trends and annual dynamics, the same data can provide reasonable representations of riparian processes and support meaningful inferences about stream chemistry.

Long-term trends in water chemistry of acid-sensitive Swedish lakes show slow recovery from historic acidification

Long-term (1987-2012) water quality monitoring in 36 acid-sensitive Swedish lakes shows slow recovery from historic acidification. Overall, strong acid anion concentrations declined, primarily as a result of declines in sulfate. Chloride is now the dominant anion in many acid-sensitive lakes. Base cation concentrations have declined less rapidly than strong acid anion concentrations, leading to an increase in charge balance acid neutralizing capacity. In many lakes, modeled organic acidity is now approximately equal to inorganic acidity. The observed trends in water chemistry suggest lakes may not return to reference conditions. Despite declines in acid deposition, many of these lakes are still acidified. Base cation concentrations continue to decline and alkalinity shows only small increases. A changing climate may further delay recovery by increasing dissolved organic carbon concentrations and sea-salt episodes. More intensive forest harvesting may also hamper recovery by reducing the supply of soil base cations.