Environmental effects are stronger than human effects on mammalian predator-prey relationships in arid Australian ecosystems

Designing a large-scale track-based monitoring program to detect changes in species distributions in arid Australia

Monitoring trends in animal populations in arid regions is challenging due to remoteness and low population densities. However, detecting species' tracks or signs is an effective survey technique for monitoring population trends across large spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we developed a simulation framework to evaluate the performance of alternative track-based monitoring designs at detecting change in species distributions in arid Australia. We collated presence-absence records from 550 2-ha track-based plots for 11 vertebrates over 13 years and fitted ensemble species distribution models to predict occupancy in 2018. We simulated plausible changes in species' distributions over the next 15 years and, with estimates of detectability, simulated monitoring to evaluate the statistical power of three alternative monitoring scenarios: (1) where surveys were restricted to existing 2-ha plots, (2) where surveys were optimized to target all species equally, and (3) where surveys were optimized to target two species of conservation concern. Across all monitoring designs and scenarios, we found that power was higher when detecting increasing occupancy trends compared to decreasing trends owing to the relatively low levels of initial occupancy. Our results suggest that surveying 200 of the existing plots annually (with a small subset resurveyed twice within a year) will have at least an 80% chance of detecting 30% declines in occupancy for four of the five invasive species modeled and one of the six native species. This increased to 10 of the 11 species assuming larger (50%) declines. When plots were positioned to target all species equally, power improved slightly for most compared to the existing survey network. When plots were positioned to target two species of conservation concern (crest-tailed mulgara and dusky hopping mouse), power to detect 30% declines increased by 29% and 31% for these species, respectively, at the cost of reduced power for the remaining species. The effect of varying survey frequency depended on its trade-off with the number of sites sampled and requires further consideration. Nonetheless, our research suggests that track-based surveying is an effective and logistically feasible approach to monitoring broad-scale occupancy trends in desert species with both widespread and restricted distributions.

Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

Rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Land use change continues to alter the availability and quality of habitat and further intensifies the effects of climate change on wildlife species. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for an iconic wildlife species, greater one-horned rhinoceros due to the combined effects of climate and land use changes. We compiled an extensive database on current rhinoceros distribution and selected nine ecologically meaningful environmental variables for developing ensemble models of habitat suitability using ten different species distribution modeling algorithms in the BIOMOD2 R package; and we did this under current climatic conditions and then projected them onto two possible climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and two different time frames (2050 and 2070). Out of ten algorithms, random forest performed the best, and five environmental variables-distance from grasslands, mean temperature of driest quarter, distance from wetlands, annual precipitation, and slope, contributed the most in the model. The ensemble model estimated the current suitable habitat of rhinoceros to be 2610 km2, about 1.77% of the total area of Nepal. The future habitat suitability under the lowest and highest emission scenarios was estimated to be: (1) 2325 and 1904 km2 in 2050; and (2) 2287 and 1686 km2 in 2070, respectively. Our results suggest that over one-third of the current rhinoceros habitat would become unsuitable within a period of 50 years, with the predicted declines being influenced to a greater degree by climatic changes than land use changes. We have recommended several measures to moderate these impacts, including relocation of the proposed Nijgad International Airport given that a considerable portion of potential rhinoceros habitat will be lost if the airport is constructed on the currently proposed site.

Rodents' responses to manipulated plant litter and seed densities: implications for restoration

Rodent populations in arid grasslands do not always track seed production, possibly due to high levels of plant litter. When natural disturbances are suppressed, litter accumulates becoming physically complex, causing rodents to harvest fewer seeds per equivalent time foraging. It also alters security from predation. Restoring natural disturbances may be an important element in conserving rodent communities. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of two levels of plant litter cover and seed densities on nocturnal rodent population characteristics in a semiarid grassland. Specifically, I hypothesized that kangaroo rats, pocket mice, grasshopper mice, and total rodents would be higher in the sparse plant litter treatment than dense litter, whereas deer mice would be lower in sparse plots. I further hypothesized that kangaroo rats and deer mice would be higher in the seed augmented treatment compared to the unseeded treatment. A prescribed fire removed litter in four of eight plots prior to sowing native seeds 1 year postfire into two burned and two unburned plots. Rodents were live-trapped during spring and fall 1 year. Sparse litter treatment had higher total rodent abundance, biomass, and frequency of offspring compared to dense plots indicating use of stored seeds. Banner-tailed kangaroo rats had higher abundance, implying reduced predation risk. Pocket mice body mass was greater in dense plots. After winter, seeded plots had higher kangaroo rat body mass and grasshopper mice abundance than unseeded, reflecting the use of stored seeds. These short term results demonstrate litter's physical complexity may be equivalent to seed pulses on the responses of nocturnal rodents. Managers might positively influence grassland rodents by providing a mosaic of varying levels of plant litter.

Trends and current state of research on greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis): A systematic review of the literature over a period of 33 years (1985-2018)

Greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) is one of the most iconic wildlife species in the world. Once reduced to fewer than 500 during the 1960s, its global population has been recovering and is now over 3500, thanks to effective conservation programs in India and Nepal, the only two countries in the world where this species is found. It is one of the greatest success stories in biodiversity conservation given that hundreds of other species have disappeared, and thousands of species are on the verge of extinction. However, poaching is not the only threat for the long-term survival of rhinoceros. Loss and degradation of grassland habitat and the drying-up of wetlands are emerging threats predicted to worsen in the future, but the published information on rhinoceros has never been synthesized. In order to better understand the trends and current status of rhinoceros research and identify research gaps inhibiting its long-term conservation, we analyzed the themes discussed in 215 articles covering a period of 33 years between 1985 and 2018. Our findings suggest that studies on both free-ranging and captive rhinoceros are skewed towards biological aspects of the species including morphology, anatomy, physiology, and behaviour. There are no studies addressing the likely effects of climate change on the species, and limited information is available on rhinoceros genetics, diseases, habitat dynamics and the impacts of tourism and other infrastructure development in and around rhinoceros habitat. These issues will need addressing to maintain the conservation success of greater one-horned rhinoceros into the future.

Utilisation of stranded marine fauna washed ashore on K’gari (Fraser Island), Australia, by dingoes

Stranded marine fauna have been identified as a potentially significant food resource for terrestrial carnivores, but how such subsidisation influences terrestrial species ecology is not well understood. We describe the dietary and behavioural responses of dingoes (Canis familiaris) to the occurrence of large-animal marine strandings (e.g. dead cetaceans, marine turtles and pinnipeds) between 2006 and 2016 on K’gari (Fraser Island), Australia, to better understand the trophic links between marine and terrestrial systems. A total of 309 strandings were recorded during this period (~3.1 strandings per month), yielding an annual average of 30.3 tons of available carrion to the 100–200 dingoes present on the island. Carcass monitoring with camera traps showed that dingoes used carcasses almost daily after a short period of decomposition. Whole packs of up to seven dingoes of all age classes at a time were observed visiting carcasses for multiple successive days. These data demonstrate that large-animal marine subsidies can be a common, substantial and important food source for dingoes, and that the estimated daily dietary needs of roughly 5–10% of the island’s dingo population were supported by this food source. Our data suggest that marine subsidisation can influence terrestrial carnivore diet, behaviour and abundance, which may produce cascading indirect effects for terrestrial ecosystems in contexts where subsidised carnivores interact strongly with other species.