Do spatial patterns of urbanization and land consumption reflect different socioeconomic contexts in Europe?

Coupled relationships between landscape pattern and ecosystem health in response to urbanization

Rapid urbanization has highlighted ecological problems in the metropolitan area, with increasing landscape fragmentation and severe threats to ecosystem health (EH). Studying the spatio-temporal coupled relationship between landscape pattern and EH and its response to urbanization in the Fuzhou metropolitan area (FMA) can provide scientific reference for its long-term development planning. We examined the coupled relationship between landscape pattern and EH and its driving mechanism in the FMA at grid and township scales to address the gap. The results show that landscape heterogeneity, diversity, and dispersion are gradually increasing, and EH is rising progressively in the FMA from 2000 to 2020. The spatial distribution of landscape pattern indices and EH indicators showed a "high in the south and low in the north" trend. During the study period, the coupled relationship between landscape patterns and EH was increasingly powerful but with remarkable spatial heterogeneity. The study also found an inverted U-shaped relationship between urbanization and coupled relationships. Ecological landscapes' heterogeneity, diversity, and connectivity in low-urbanization areas are conducive to EH. The opposite is true for high-urbanization areas. This study provides a valuable reference for optimizing landscape planning and ecological management in metropolitan areas.

Spatially explicit downscaling and projection of population in mainland China

Spatially explicit population data is critical to investigating human-nature interactions, identifying at-risk populations, and informing sustainable management and policy decisions. Most long-term global population data have three main limitations: 1) they were estimated with simple scaling or trend extrapolation methods which are not able to capture detailed population variation spatially and temporally; 2) the rate of urbanization and the spatial patterns of settlement changes were not fully considered; and 3) the spatial resolution is generally coarse. To address these limitations, we proposed a framework for large-scale spatially explicit downscaling of populations from census data and projecting future population distributions under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios with the consideration of distinctive changes in urban extent. We downscaled urban and rural population separately and considered urban spatial sprawl in downscaling and projection. Treating urban and rural populations as distinct but interconnected entities, we constructed a random forest model to downscale historical populations and designed a gravity-based population potential model to project future population changes at the grid level. This work built a new capacity for understanding spatially explicit demographic change with a combination of temporal, spatial, and SSP scenario dimensions, paving the way for cross-disciplinary studies on long-term socio-environmental interactions.

Spatiotemporal changes of urban vacant land and its distribution patterns in shrinking cities on the globe

Urban vacant land (UVL) has been an important issue in the urbanization process, especially for shrinking cities. Identifying UVL and analyzing its spatiotemporal characteristics are the foundation for coping with this issue. This study identified UVL in 497 shrinking cities on the globe (10 % of shrinking cities in total) in 2016 and 2021 using manual labeling and deep learning to reflect the distribution patterns of UVL and its spatiotemporal changes. The results reveal that a global expansion of UVL from 2016 to 2021 in 497 shrinking cities, with diverse distribution patterns and varying changes across different regions. As for socioeconomic factors, UVL is related to population shrinkage, and the UVL ratio presents a phased change with the increase of the urbanization rate, revealing an inverted U-shaped relationship between the UVL ratio and the urbanization rate. The distribution patterns of UVL also vary globally in different urbanization phases. This study can provide theoretical and practical insights for improving urban planning and promoting sustainable urbanization.

Perceptible landscape patterns reveal invisible socioeconomic profiles of cities

Urban landscape is directly perceived by residents and is a significant symbol of urbanization development. A comprehensive assessment of urban landscapes is crucial for guiding the development of inclusive, resilient, and sustainable cities and human settlements. Previous studies have primarily analyzed two-dimensional landscape indicators derived from satellite remote sensing, potentially overlooking the valuable insights provided by the three-dimensional configuration of landscapes. This limitation arises from the high cost of acquiring large-area three-dimensional data and the lack of effective assessment indicators. Here, we propose four urban landscapes indicators in three dimensions (UL3D): greenness, grayness, openness, and crowding. We construct the UL3D using 4.03 million street view images from 303 major cities in China, employing a deep learning approach. We combine urban background and two-dimensional urban landscape indicators with UL3D to predict the socioeconomic profiles of cities. The results show that UL3D indicators differs from two-dimensional landscape indicators, with a low average correlation coefficient of 0.31 between them. Urban landscapes had a changing point in 2018-2019 due to new urbanization initiatives, with grayness and crowding rates slowing, while openness increased. The incorporation of UL3D indicators significantly enhances the explanatory power of the regression model for predicting socioeconomic profiles. Specifically, GDP per capita, urban population rate, built-up area per capita, and hospital count correspond to improvements of 25.0%, 19.8%, 35.5%, and 19.2%, respectively. These findings indicate that UL3D indicators have the potential to reflect the socioeconomic profiles of cities.

Spatiotemporal assessment of the nexus between urban sprawl and land surface temperature as microclimatic effect: implications for urban planning

Rapid urbanisation has led to significant environmental and climatic changes worldwide, especially in urban heat islands where increased land surface temperature (LST) poses a major challenge to sustainable urban living. In the city of Abha in southwestern Saudi Arabia, a region experiencing rapid urban growth, the impact of such expansion on LST and the resulting microclimatic changes are still poorly understood. This study aims to explore the dynamics of urban sprawl and its direct impact on LST to provide important insights for urban planning and climate change mitigation strategies. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm optimised for land use and land cover (LULC) mapping, LULC models were derived that had an overall accuracy of 87.70%, 86.27% and 93.53% for 1990, 2000 and 2020, respectively. The mono-window algorithm facilitated the derivation of LST, while Markovian transition matrices and spatial linear regression models assessed LULC dynamics and LST trends. Notably, built-up areas grew from 69.40 km2 in 1990 to 338.74 km2 in 2020, while LST in urban areas showed a pronounced warming trend, with temperatures increasing from an average of 43.71 °C in 1990 to 50.46 °C in 2020. Six landscape fragmentation indices were then calculated for urban areas over three decades. The results show that the Largest Patch Index (LPI) increases from 22.78 in 1990 to 65.24 in 2020, and the number of patches (NP) escalates from 2,531 in 1990 to an impressive 10,710 in 2020. Further regression analyses highlighted the morphological changes in the cities and attributed almost 97% of the LST variability to these urban patch dynamics. In addition, water bodies showed a cooling trend with a temperature decrease from 33.76 °C in 2000 to 29.69 °C in 2020, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. The conclusion emphasises the urgent need for sustainable urban planning to counteract the warming trends associated with urban sprawl and promote climate resilience.

Mapping and assessment of ecosystem health in the Vilnius functional zone (Lithuania)

Urban expansion is a global phenomenon that impacts biodiversity loss and climate change. Soil sealing increases land degradation and the ecosystem services supply. This degradation also negatively affects ecosystem health, essential to make cities more sustainable and liveable. This work aims to study the ecosystem health spatiotemporal evolution (1990, 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018) in the Vilnius (Lithuania) functional zone, using the vigour, organisation and resilience (VOR) method. The results showed that ecosystem health model validation was acceptable (r = -0.761; p < 0.01). Between 1990 and 2018, an increase (18.37 %) in ecosystem vigour was observed. The values were significantly higher in 2006, 2012 and 2018 than in 1990 and 2000. We identified a decrease between 1990 and 2018 regarding ecosystem organisation (7.15 %) and resilience (9.92 %). However, no significant differences between the years were identified. Ecosystem health decreased (11.49 %) between 1990 and 2018, mainly between 2012 and 2018. Ecosystem health values in 2018 were significantly lower than those identified in the previous years. The lowest values of ecosystem vigour, organisation and resilience were identified in the Vilnius city centre, while the highest was observed in the Vilnius functional zone. From 1990 to 2018, ecosystem vigour increased in some elderships located on the fringe of the studied area due to land abandonment and forest plantations. Simultaneously, a decrease in ecosystem organisation and resilience in the elderships located in Vilnius city centre was observed due to urban sprawl and the consequent landscape fragmentation. This negatively impacted ecosystem health, overshadowing the positive trend observed in ecosystem vigour. Different processes (e.g., urban sprawl, land abandonment, forest plantations) occurred in the Vilnius functional zone. It is essential to halt urban expansion and its adverse impacts on ecosystem health, city sustainability and liveability.

Multi-dimensional landscape ecological risk assessment and its drivers in coastal areas

The eastern coastal areas of Japan are threatened by multiple ecological risks due to frequent natural disasters, climate changes, human activities, etc. Identification spatio-temporal variations and driving mechanisms of landscape ecological risk could be used as significant basis for policymakers. In this study, taking the eastern coastal areas of Japan affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster as the study area, the "Nature-Landscape Pattern-Human Society" (NA-LP-HS) multi-dimensional ecological risk assessment framework was established to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns, and identity driving factors using spatial cluster analysis and spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) based on ArcGIS from 2009 to 2021. The findings revealed the distinct geographic patterns in landscape ecological risk, with a noticeable decline from the southwest to the northeast. During the period from 2009 to 2015, the driving factors leading to a sharp risk increase were natural disasters and vegetation coverage. These high-risk areas were concentrated in Sendai Bay and its surroundings. From 2015 to 2021, ecological instability was primarily attributed to a reduction in vegetation coverage, the occurrence of natural disasters, and heightened rainfall erosion. These high-risk areas were mainly clustered within the Tokyo-centered urban agglomeration. Spatial clustering of ecological risks was obvious across all time periods. The key factors contributing to the clustering of high ecological landscape risks focused on the "landscape pattern" criterion, specifically including vegetation coverage, land use land cover. This study demonstrated the ability of multi-dimensional ecological risk assessment to identify high-risk areas and driving factors, and these results could provide a visual analysis and decision-making basis for sustainable development of coastal areas.

Unraveling population trends in Italy (1921-2021) with spatial econometrics

Testing density-dependence and path-dependence in long-term population dynamics under differentiated local contexts contributes to delineate the changing role of socioeconomic forces at the base of regional disparities. Despite a millenary settlement history, such issue has been rarely investigated in Europe, and especially in highly divided countries such as those in the Mediterranean region. Using econometric modeling to manage spatial heterogeneity, our study verifies the role of selected drivers of population growth at ten times between 1921 and 2021 in more than 8000 Italian municipalities verifying density-dependent and path-dependent dynamics. Results of global and quantile (spatial) regressions highlight a differential impact of density and (lagged) population growth on demographic dynamics along the urban cycle in Italy. Being weakly significant in the inter-war period (1921-1951), econometric models totalized a high goodness-of-fit in correspondence with compact urbanization (1951-1981). Model's fit declined in the following decades (1981-2021) reflecting suburbanization and counter-urbanization. Density-dependence and path-dependence were found significant and, respectively, positive or negative, with compact urbanization, and much less intense with suburbanization and counter-urbanization. A spatial econometric investigation of density-dependent and path-dependent mechanisms of population dynamics provided an original explanation of metropolitan cycles, delineating the evolution of socioeconomic (local) systems along the urban-rural gradient.

Past and future impacts of land-use changes on ecosystem services in Austria

Environmental and socio-economic developments induce land-use changes with potentially negative impacts on human well-being. To counteract undesired developments, a profound understanding of the complex relationships between drivers, land use, and ecosystem services is needed. Yet, national studies examining extended time periods are still rare. Based on the Special Report on land use, land management and climate change by the Austrian Panel on Climate Change (APCC), we use the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework to (1) identify the main drivers of land-use change, (2) describe past and future land-use changes in Austria between 1950 and 2100, (3) report related impacts on ecosystem services, and (4) discuss management responses. Our findings indicate that socio-economic drivers (e.g., economic growth, political systems, and technological developments) have influenced past land-use changes the most. The intensification of agricultural land use and urban sprawl have primarily led to declining ecosystem services in the lowlands. In mountain regions, the abandonment of mountain grassland has prompted a shift from provisioning to regulating services. However, simulations indicate that accelerating climate change will surpass socio-economic drivers in significance towards the end of this century, particularly in intensively used agricultural areas. Although climate change-induced impacts on ecosystem services remain uncertain, it can be expected that the range of land-use management options will be restricted in the future. Consequently, policymaking should prioritize the development of integrated land-use planning to safeguard ecosystem services, accounting for future environmental and socio-economic uncertainties.

Did COVID-19 enlarge spatial disparities in population dynamics? A comparative, multivariate approach for Italy

A short-term issue that has been occasionally investigated in the current literature is if (and, eventually, how) population dynamics (directly or indirectly) driven by COVID-19 pandemic have contributed to enlarge regional divides in specific demographic processes and dimensions. To verify this assumption, our study run an exploratory multivariate analysis of ten indicators representative of different demographic phenomena (fertility, mortality, nuptiality, internal and international migration) and the related population outcomes (natural balance, migration balance, total growth). We developed a descriptive analysis of the statistical distribution of the ten demographic indicators using eight metrics that assess formation (and consolidation) of spatial divides, controlling for shifts over time in both central tendency, dispersion, and distributional shape regimes. All indicators were made available over 20 years (2002-2021) at a relatively detailed spatial scale (107 NUTS-3 provinces) in Italy. COVID-19 pandemic exerted an impact on Italian population because of intrinsic (e.g. a particularly older population age structure compared with other advanced economies) and extrinsic (e.g. the early start of the pandemic spread compared with the neighboring European countries) factors. For such reasons, Italy may represent a sort of 'worst' demographic scenario for other countries affected by COVID-19 and the results of this empirical study can be informative when delineating policy measures (with both economic and social impact) able to mitigate the effect of pandemics on demographic balance and improve the adaptation capacity of local societies to future pandemic's crises.

Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece

Metropolitan decline in southern Europe was documented in few cases, being less intensively investigated than in other regions of the continent. Likely for the first time in recent history, the aftermath of the 2007 recession was a time period associated with economic and demographic decline in Mediterranean Europe. However, the impacts and consequences of the great crisis were occasionally verified and quantified, both in strictly urban contexts and in the surrounding rural areas. By exploiting official statistics, our study delineates sequential stages of demographic growth and decline in a large metropolitan region (Athens, Greece) as a response to economic expansion and stagnation. Having important implications for the extent and spatial direction of metropolitan cycles, the Athens’ case—taken as an example of urban cycles in Mediterranean Europe—indicates a possibly new dimension of urban shrinkage, with spatially varying population growth and decline along a geographical gradient of income and wealth. Heterogeneous dynamics led to a leapfrog urban expansion decoupled from agglomeration and scale, the factors most likely shaping long-term metropolitan expansion in advanced economies. Demographic decline in urban contexts was associated with multidimensional socioeconomic processes resulting in spatially complex demographic outcomes that require appropriate, and possibly more specific, regulation policies. By shedding further light on recession-driven metropolitan decline in advanced economies, the present study contributes to re-thinking short-term development mechanisms and medium-term demographic scenarios in Mediterranean Europe.

Investigating metropolitan change through mathematical morphology and a dynamic factor analysis of structural and functional land-use indicators

We presented an operational rationale grounded on complex system thinking to quantify structural and functional landscape transformations along three stages representative of post-war metropolitan development in Rome, Italy (urbanisation with population/settlement densification, 1949-1974; suburbanisation with medium-density settlement expansion, 1974-1999; counter-urbanisation with settlement sprawl, 1999-2016). A mathematical morphology approach assessing the geometric form of land patches and a multi-way factor analysis (MFA) of landscape metrics were used to investigate the joint evolution of urban form and land-use functions over time. The empirical results of the MFA delineated the multivariate relationship between nine land-use classes (with distinctive socioeconomic functions) and seven morphological types (reflecting different landscape structures) according to four observation times (1949, 1974, 1999, 2016). Taken as an intrinsic attribute of complex landscape systems experiencing intense transformations, an estimation of the 'rapidity-of-change' in the form-functions relationship at a given development stage was derived from MFA outcomes separately for urbanisation, suburbanisation, and counter-urbanisation. A simplified form-functions relationship, reflecting the spatial polarisation in compact settlements and rural (low-density) landscapes, was observed with compact urbanisation. By stimulating urban sprawl into fringe farmland, suburbanisation resulted in patchy and heterogeneous rural landscapes. Counter-urbanization was associated with the fragmentation of built-up settlements leading to a chaotic mosaic of land structures that mixes urban and rural traits. Rapidity-of-change in form-function relationships was greater during suburbanisation than urbanisation and counter-urbanisation. It reflects the intrinsic pressure of economic growth in contemporary cities.

Enlarging the divide? Per-Capita Income as a measure of social inequalities in a southern European City

Earlier studies relating form and functions of cities address an intriguing and complex research issue, especially for specific urban typologies. Although with inherent differences on a local scale, Mediterranean cities represent diversified settlement morphologies and multifaceted socioeconomic contexts. The present study investigates the socioeconomic structure at the base of rapid development of a large Mediterranean agglomeration (Athens, Greece). Results of a multivariate analysis of the spatial distribution of average (per-capita) declared income and non-parametric correlations of contextual indicators suggest that the characteristic socio-spatial structure of the 1970s and the 1980s in Athens had slightly changed in recent times. A remarkable segregation in wealthy and disadvantaged communities - well beyond the urban-rural divide usually observed in Mediterranean regions - consolidated in recent decades. Despite economic transformations shaping urban design and infrastructural networks, persistent disparities between affluent and economically depressed neighborhoods still characterize the socio-spatial structure of contemporary Athens.

Urban Land-Cover Changes in Major Cities in China from 1990 to 2015

The accelerated urbanization process in China has led to land-cover changes, triggering a series of environmental issues as one of the major drivers of global change. We studied the land-cover changes in the built-up areas of 50 major cities in China from 1990 to 2015 with Landsat data combined with spectral unmixing methods and decision tree classification. The overall accuracy of urban land-cover type products with 30 m resolution was obtained as 84%, which includes impervious surfaces, bare soil, vegetation, and water bodies. Based on these land-cover type products, the results show that the urbanization of major cities in China manifests itself as a steep expansion of impervious surfaces (+32.91%) and vegetation (+36.93%), while the proportion of bare soil (-68.64%) and water bodies (-1.20%) decreases. The increase in vegetation indicates an increasing emphasis on greening during urbanization, which is especially vital for the sustainability of urban ecosystems. Increasing economic standards and population sizes are significantly correlated with impervious surface expansion and may be the main drivers of urbanization. Nationwide, there is a decreasing trend of shape complexity among different large cities, which indicates that landscape shapes will gradually become regular when cities grow to a certain level. Greenspace areas in the cities increased significantly during 1990-2015 and became more fragmented and tended to disperse across cities. These changes reflect the government's efforts to enhance urban ecosystem functions to serve the rapidly increasing urban population in China over the past three decades.

Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Convergence Characteristics of Provincial Urban Land Use Efficiency under Environmental Constraints in China

Revealing the spatial-temporal pattern and convergence characteristics of urban land use efficiency has important guiding significance for adjusting and optimizing the regional urban land use structure. Taking the provincial units in China as the research object, the urban land use efficiency evaluation system considering the unexpected output was constructed, and the slack-based measure (SBA) model was used to quantitatively measure the provincial urban land use efficiency from 2000 to 2020. The exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) model and spatial convergence index were combined to reveal the spatial-temporal pattern and convergence characteristics of provincial urban land use efficiency. The results showed that the provincial urban land use efficiency has been continuously improving, with regional differences as shown in eastern region > northeast region > central region > western region. Moran's I of provincial urban land use efficiency was greater than 0, there was a positive spatial correlation, and the clustering feature became increasingly significant. The spatial form of LISA was characterized by "small agglomeration and large dispersion"; the H(High)-H(High) type was clustered in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, while the L(Low)-L(Low) type was clustered in Xizang, Xinjiang and Qinghai. There was a σ convergence in provincial urban land use efficiency, and there was significant absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence of provincial urban land use efficiency. The results showed that the differences in provincial urban land use efficiency were shrinking, showing a "catch-up effect", and converging to their respective stable states over time. Based on the analysis of the spatial-temporal pattern and convergence characteristics of provincial urban land use efficiency in China, we could provide a direction for the optimization of the urban land use structure and efficiency improvement in China, in order to narrow the differences in urban land use efficiency in China's four major regions.

Towards a concrete landscape: Assessing the efficiency of land consumption in the Greater Accra Region, Ghana

Most existing studies on land consumption have used a reactive approach to assess the phenomenon. However, for evidence-based policies, an initiative-taking forecast has been touted to be more appropriate. This study, therefore, assessed current trends and efficiency of land consumption in the Greater Accra Region from 1987 to 2017, and predicted a 30-year future land consumption in a "business-as-usual" scenario. The study adopted maximum likelihood image classification techniques and "combinatorial or" to model land cover change for Greater Accra from 1987 to 2017 while the UN-Habitat land efficiency index was employed to model efficiency of land consumption. In addition, Leo-Breiman Forest based regression, was used to model a future land cover by using the 30 years land cover change as a dependant variable and a series of natural and anthropogenic factors as independent variables. Results showed that artificial surfaces increased from 4.2% to 33.1%, with an annual growth rate of 22.1% in 30 years. Land consumption was highly inefficient as only 4.2% of the region had a good proportion of population per land area. Factors which influenced artificial surface growth were population, distance from water bodies, poverty index, distance from sacred groves, proportion of agriculture population with a small margin of influence from soil and geology type. Landscape prediction showed that artificial surfaces will increase to 92.6% as more places are coated with concrete. The high rate of land inefficiency provides an opportunity for re-zoning by the Land Use and Spatial Planning Authority of Ghana to accommodate the growing population.

Urbanisation-driven land degradation and socioeconomic challenges in peri-urban areas: Insights from Southern Europe

Climate change and landscape transformation have led to rapid expansion of peri-urban areas globally, representing new 'laboratories' for the study of human-nature relationships aiming at land degradation management. This paper contributes to the debate on human-driven land degradation processes by highlighting how natural and socioeconomic forces trigger soil depletion and environmental degradation in peri-urban areas. The aim was to classify and synthesise the interactions of urbanisation-driven factors with direct or indirect, on-site or off-site, and short-term or century-scale impacts on land degradation, focussing on Southern Europe as a paradigmatic case to address this issue. Assuming complex and multifaceted interactions among influencing factors, a relevant contribution to land degradation was shown to derive from socioeconomic drivers, the most important of which were population growth and urban sprawl. Viewing peri-urban areas as socio-environmental systems adapting to intense socioeconomic transformations, these factors were identified as forming complex environmental 'syndromes' driven by urbanisation. Based on this classification, we suggested three key measures to support future land management in Southern European peri-urban areas.

Linking MSPA and Circuit Theory to Identify the Spatial Range of Ecological Networks and Its Priority Areas for Conservation and Restoration in Urban Agglomeration

Rapid urbanization has led to the continuous degradation of natural ecological space within large urban agglomerations, triggering landscape fragmentation and habitat loss, which poses a great threat to regional ecological sustainability. Ecological networks (ENs) are a comprehensive control scheme to protect regional ecological sustainability. However, in the current research about ENs, most studies can only determine the orientation of ecological corridors but not their specific spatial range. This leads to the fact that ENs can only be abstract concepts composed of points and lines, and cannot be implemented into concrete spatial planning. In this study, taking the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration as an example, ecological sources were identified by morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA) and habitat quality assessment, ecological resistance surfaces were constructed based on habitat risk assessment (HRA). And circuit theory was used to simulate the ecosystem processes in heterogeneous landscapes via by calculating the cumulative current value and cumulative current recovery value, to identify the spatial range and key areas of ecological corridors. The results showed that the ENs includes 6,263.73 km2 of ecological sources, 12,136.61 km2 of ecological corridors, 283.61 km2 of pinch points and 347.51 km2 of barriers. Specifically, ecological sources were distributed in a spatial pattern of five groups, and ecological corridors were short and dense within groups, long in distance and narrow in width between groups. The pinch points and barriers mainly exist in the ecological corridors connecting the inner and outer parts of the central city and in the inter-group corridors. In order to ensure the connectivity and effectiveness of ENs, it is necessary to focus on the pinch points and barriers and include them in the priority areas for protection and restoration. Based on MSPA and circuit theory, this study provides a new method for determining the spatial range of ENs and the specific locations of priority areas, and provides a feasible solution for the concrete implementation of ENs to achieve effective ecological protection and restoration.

Caring of the Fringe? Mediterranean Desertification between Peri-Urban Ecology and Socioeconomics

This commentary debates on the role of multiple socioeconomic drivers of fringe land degradation (including, but not limited to, population and social dynamics, economic polarization, and developmental policies), as a novel contribution to the desertification assessment in Southern European metropolitan regions, a recognized hotspot of desertification at the global scale. Expanding rapidly all over the world, metropolitan regions are a geographical space where land degradation drivers and processes assume typical relationships that require further research supporting dedicated policy strategies. To assure a better comprehension of the environmental-economic nexus at the base of land degradation in peri-urban areas, we provided a classification of relevant socioeconomic and territorial dimensions in both macro-scale and micro-scale degradation processes. We also identified the related (contextual) factors that determine an increased risk of desertification in metropolitan regions. Micro-scale factors, such as agricultural prices and off-farm employment, reflect some potential causes of fringe land degradation, with a mostly local and on-site role. Technological change, agricultural prices, and household income influence land vulnerability, but their impact on fringe land degradation was less investigated and supposed to be quite moderate in most cases. Macro-scale factors such as population density, rural poverty, and environmental policies—being extensively studied on a qualitative base—were taken as important drivers of fringe land degradation, although their impact still remains undefined. Regional disparities in land resource distribution, rural poverty, and unsustainable management of environmental resources like soil and water were indirect consequences of land degradation in peri-urban districts. Based on a comparative review of theoretical and empirical findings, strategies mitigating degradation of fringe land and reducing desertification risk in potentially affected metropolitan regions were finally discussed for the Northern Mediterranean basin and generalized to other socioeconomic contexts.

Land Use Evolution and Land Ecological Security Evaluation Based on AHP-FCE Model: Evidence from China

China experienced rapid urbanization and socioeconomic development at an unusual rate during the past four decades. Against such background, land use evolution and land ecological security have both been affected in a volatile way. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the land use and the land ecological security in China. However, the traditional assessment approaches have paid more attention to the environmental and economic factors than the sustainable development of ecology, which cannot comprehensively assess the land ecological security. From the perspective of ecological sustainable development, this study identifies 3 main factors and 17 sub-factors. We also construct a model to integrate the FCE approach with the AHP. The results show that from 2004 to 2017, China's land use structure was unbalanced. The construction land, mining land, and cultivated land increased rapidly, leading to the shrinkage of ecological land. Moreover, the weight of the sustainable development of resources and the environment, economic sustainable development, social sustainable development are 0.3341, 0.3780, and 0.2879, respectively, demonstrating that economic sustainable development is the most important factor affecting land ecological security. Finally, although the value of comprehensive land ecological security in China has been on the rise from 2004 to 2017, it remains at an unsecured level. Moreover, the value of the sustainable development of resources and the environment has been declining since 2011 and is lower than the values of economic sustainable development and social sustainable development. This study demonstrates that more attention should be paid to enhancing land ecological security, especially promoting the sustainable development of resources and the environment.

Spatial Indicators to Monitor Land Consumption for local Governance in Southern Germany

Land consumption for settlement and infrastructure development has been extensively discussed and analyzed in the last two decades. In Germany, existing governance at the state level seems to hardly foster effective land management at the municipal level to achieve overarching goals at the level of the European Union such as "no net land take". Germany aims to limit land consumption to less than 30 ha per day by 2030. This goal is hardly translated to the municipal level where actual land-use decisions are taken due to the municipal planning sovereignty. In order to address these deficiencies, this study characterizes land consumption in the Nuremberg Metropolitan Region with self-organizing maps and identifies major factors explaining cluster differences using boosted regression trees. We identified four major clusters: booming, prosperous, moderate, and transition regions. Generally, beneficial demographics (population growth and lower old-age dependency ratio) and financial power of municipalities come at the expense of considerable settlement and traffic infrastructure development (i.e., increased land consumption), creating the impression of a rather unregulated market despite the existing planning framework in Germany. Based on these clusters, we developed an indicator set through a participatory process to improve land-use planning following three dimensions: efficient land use, preservation of cultural landscapes and its services, and fostering the regional added value of agricultural products beyond the current local political focus. Future research should assess whether municipalities with better information will reduce land consumption due to increased awareness.

Evaluating the Territorial Impact of Built-Up Area Expansion in the Surroundings of Bucharest (Romania) through a Multilevel Approach Based on Landsat Satellite Imagery

Assessing the relentless expansion of built-up areas is one of the most important tasks for achieving sustainable planning and supporting decision-making on the regional and local level. In this context, techniques based on remote sensing can play a crucial role in monitoring the fast rhythm of urban growth, allowing the regular appraisal of territorial dynamics. The main aim of the study is to evaluate, in a multi-scalar perspective, the built-up area expansion and the spatio–temporal changes in Ilfov County, which overlaps the surroundings of Bucharest, capital of Romania. Our research focuses on processing multi-date Landsat satellite imagery from three selected time references (2000, 2008, 2018) through the supervised classification process. Further on, the types of built-up area dynamics are explored using LDTtool, a landscape metrics instrument. The results reveal massive territorial restructuring in the 18 years, as the new built-up developments occupy a larger area than the settlements’ surface in 2000. The rhythm of the transformations also changed over time, denoting a significant acceleration after 2008, when 75% of the new development occurred. At the regional level, the spatial pattern has become more and more complex, in a patchwork of spatial arrangements characterized by the proliferation of low density areas interspersed with clusters of high density developments and undeveloped land. At the local level, a comparative assessment of the administrative territorial units’ pathway was conducted based on the annual growth of built-up areas, highlighting the most attractive places and the main territorial directions of development. In terms of the specific dynamics of built-up areas, the main change patterns are “F—NP increment by gain”, followed by “G—Aggregation by gain”, both comprising around 80% of the total number of cells. The first type was prevalent in the first period (2000–2008), while the second is identified only after 2008, when it became the most represented, followed in the hierarchy by the previously dominant category. The spatial pattern differentiations were further explored in three complementary case studies investigated in correlation with socioeconomic data, revealing a heterogeneous landscape.

Interaction between urbanization and the eco-environment in the Pan-Third Pole region

Due to the high ecological vulnerability of the Pan-Third Pole region and the complexity of its ecological process, the impact of urbanization on the ecological environment (eco-environment) in this specific region attracts global attention. Here, we established an effective framework to evaluate the coupling coordination process of urbanization and eco-environment, and investigated the spatial distribution and dynamic evolution of this coupling coordination. Results showed that the Pan-Third Pole is undergoing an accelerated process of urbanization. Meanwhile, the overall eco-environment has profoundly changed from an ecological reserve to an ecological deficit. The coupling degree between urbanization and eco-environment shows an upward trend, and the decoupling process dynamically changes between various types. Regional convergence is remarkably embodied in the coupling and decoupling types. We found four coupling categories and three decoupling categories for the interaction between urbanization and eco-environment. Among them, the first coupling category contains 35 countries, which maintained a basically coordinated pattern with eco-environment lag. The initial urbanization level of the first category was higher than 35%, indicating that countries with higher urbanization levels were more likely to achieve coordinated development between urbanization and eco-environment. There was a noteworthy "path-dependence" in the evolution of the coordinated relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in the Pan-Third Pole. These findings will have important policy implications for decision-makers to explore coordination and sustainable development path for urbanization and eco-environment conservation.

Identification of Coupling and Influencing Factors between Urbanization and Ecosystem Services in Guanzhong, China

Urbanization trades off the value of ecosystem services for economic value, either directly or indirectly. Optimizing the synergistic effects of both and identifying the coupled influences associated with human activities are essential for sustainable regional development and policy formulation. In this study, we analyzed the spatial differentiation of regional ecosystem service values and urbanization using ArcGIS 10.2, STATA 15.1, the value coefficient method, the urbanization index model, and the coupled coordination model, assessed their coupled coordination status, and further explored the influencing factors, taking the Guanzhong region of China as an example. The results show that the substrate has an important influence on ecosystem service values, with woodlands being the most important value provider and the largest contribution of regulating service values, with a spatial “center-periphery” ring-band growth distribution. There is a clear hierarchy of urbanization, with the higher the administrative level, the higher the level of urbanization. The overall coupling and coordination of ecosystem services and urbanization is in a non-equilibrium state, with high levels in the south and low levels in the north. Further research on the factors influencing the coupling found that the disposable income of urban residents and the population employed in the tertiary industry had the greatest influence.

Toward a Dualistic Growth? Population Increase and Land-Use Change in Rome, Italy

The spatial mismatch between population growth and settlement expansion is at the base of current models of urban growth. Empirical evidence is increasingly required to inform planning measures promoting urban containment in the context of a stable (or declining) population. In these regards, per-capita indicators of land-use change can be adopted with the aim at evaluating long-term sustainability of urbanization processes. The present study assesses spatial variations in per-capita indicators of land-use change in Rome, Central Italy, at five years (1949, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2016) with the final objective of quantifying the mismatch between urban expansion and population growth. Originally specialized in agricultural productions, Rome’s metropolitan area is a paradigmatic example of dispersed urban expansion in the Mediterranean basin. By considering multiple land-use dynamics, per-capita indicators of landscape change delineated three distinctive waves of growth corresponding with urbanization, suburbanization, and a more mixed stage with counter-urbanization and re-urbanization impulses. By reflecting different socioeconomic contexts on a local scale, urban fabric and forests were identified as the ‘winner’ classes, expanding homogeneously over time at the expense of cropland. Agricultural landscapes experienced a more heterogeneous trend with arable land and pastures declining systematically and more fragmented land classes (e.g., vineyards and olive groves) displaying stable (or slightly increasing) trends. The continuous reduction of per-capita surface area of cropland that’s supports a reduced production base, which is now insufficient to satisfy the rising demand for fresh food at the metropolitan scale, indicates the unsustainability of the current development in Rome and more generally in the whole Mediterranean basin, a region specialized traditionally in (proximity) agricultural productions.

Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

The long-term impact of demographic transitions on the spatial distribution of human settlements was occasionally evaluated in Europe. Assuming the distinctive role of urban–rural divides, our study investigates local-scale population trends (1861–2017) in Southern Italy, a disadvantaged region of Mediterranean Europe, as a result of long-term socioeconomic transformations. A quantitative analysis of municipal-scale population data based on descriptive and exploratory multivariate statistics, mapping, inferential approaches, and regression models identified four time intervals with distinctive demographic dynamics: (i) a spatially homogeneous population growth between 1861 and 1911, (ii) a moderate population increase rebalancing a traditional divide in coastal and internal areas (1911–1951), (iii) accelerated population growth enlarging spatial divides in urban and rural districts (1951–1981), and (iv) population stability (or slight decline) leading to heterogeneous demographic patterns since the early 1980s. The first three stages reflect a prolonged transition from high fertility and mortality to high fertility and low mortality, with accelerated population growth typical of the latest stage of the first demographic transition. Outcomes of time interval (iv) reflect the early stages of the second demographic transition, with lowest-low fertility and rising life expectancy. While the first transition reflected spatially homogeneous population trends along a considerable time spam, the second transition has been associated with heterogeneous (leapfrog) demographic patterns as a result of socially mixed (and spatially) fragmented dynamics of growth and change.

The Spatial Effect of Administrative Division on Land-Use Intensity

Land-use intensity (LUI) is one of the most direct manifestations of regional land use efficiency. The study of cross-administrative LUI in urban agglomerations is of great importance for the sustainable development of land, new urbanization, and territorial spatial planning. In this study, the urban agglomeration in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China was used as the case study area to explore the spatial spillover effect through the administrative division, underlying driving mechanism, and spatial interactions or constraints of LUI. First, LUI was measured using the index of the proportion of construction land to the total area of the administrative region. Second, the adjacency relationship of the county-level administrative units was identified on the basis of the queen-type adjacency criterion under the county-level administrative division system. Thereafter, spatial weight matrix for spatial modeling was constructed. Last, a spatial model using the “Spatial adjacency matrix” was devised to examine the influencing factors and the potential spatial interactions or constraints of administrative units. Results revealed that the level of LUI of different county-level administrative units were quite different, and the gap of LUI among county-level administrative units widened from 2010 to 2017. The fixed asset investment per land (FAIL), gross domestic product per capital (PGDP), and proportion of tertiary sector (PTS) are the driving factors of LUI. County-level administrative units not only had a significant and increasing spatial interaction effect based on the relationship of cooperation, but also had an influence of restraint mutually which was caused by the competition. The direct spatial spillover effect was remarkable. In the future, the effect of interaction among administrative units under the administrative division should be considered to promote the reasonable use and optimal layout of regional urban land to realize the optimal allocation of land resources.

What Happens in the City When Long-Term Urban Expansion and (Un)Sustainable Fringe Development Occur: The Case Study of Rome

This study investigates long-term landscape transformations (1949–2016) in urban Rome, Central Italy, through a spatial distribution of seven metrics (core, islet, perforation, edge, loop, bridge, branch) derived from a Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) analyzed separately for seven land-use classes (built-up areas, arable land, crop mosaic, vineyards, olive groves, forests, pastures). A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been finally adopted to characterize landscape structure at 1949 and 2016. Results of the MSPA demonstrate how both natural and agricultural land-uses have decreased following urban expansion. Moreover, the percent ‘core’ area of each class declined substantially, although with different intensity. These results clearly indicate ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ after long-term landscape transformations: urban settlements and forests belong to the former category, the remaining land-use classes (mostly agricultural) belong to the latter category. Descriptive statistics and multivariate exploratory techniques finally documented the intrinsic complexity characteristic of actual landscapes. The findings of this study also demonstrate how settlements have expanded chaotically over the study area, reflecting a progressive ‘fractalization’ and inhomogeneity of fringe landscapes, with negative implications for metropolitan sustainability at large. These transformations were unable to leverage processes of settlement and economic re-agglomeration around sub-centers typical of polycentric development in the most advanced socioeconomic contexts.

Using multivariate statistical methods to assess the urban smartness on the example of selected European cities

The growing importance of maturity smart cities is currently observed worldwide. The vast majority of smart city models focus on hard domains such as communication and technology infrastructure. Scientists emphasize the need to take into account social capital and the knowledge of residents. The smart cities invest in enhanced openness and transparency data. Mature smart cities use real-time evidences and information to citizens, businesses and visitors. The smart cities are characterized by bottom-down management and civil government. The paper aims to assess the urban smartness of selected European cities based on the ISO 37120 standard. Several research methods including the Multidimensional Statistical Analysis (MSA) were applied. Using the statistical analysis of European smart cities with the implemented ISO 37120 standard, the author tried to fill gaps in the knowledge and to evaluate maturity smart cities. The results of the research have shown that the smart city concept is a viable strategy which contributes to the urban sustainability. The author also found out that urban sustainability frameworks contain a large number of indicators measuring environmental sustainability, the smart city frameworks lack environmental indicators while highlighting social and economic aspects.

Monitoring Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Heat Island Effect and Its Dynamic Response to Land Use/Land Cover Transition in 1987–2016 in Wuhan, China

Monitoring the relationship between the urban heat island (UHI) effect and land use/land cover (LULC) is of great significance in land use planning to adapt to climate change. However, the dynamic response of the UHI effect to LULC change over space and time has not been deeply studied. In this study, a transfer matrix method was carried out to monitor the class-to-class transitions between different LULC types, as well as those between different NLST (normalized land surface temperature) levels over space and time. The spatiotemporal correlation and dynamic coupling between UHI variation and LULC change from 1987 to 2016 were simulated based on multi-temporal remote sensing data in Wuhan, China. The results showed that high temperature (level V) and sub-high temperature (level IV) were mainly concentrated in construction land, while the majority of low temperature (level I) was distributed in water bodies. During the study period, the most notable changes were the rapid increase in construction land, as well as the continuous shrinkage of farmland and water bodies. The inward transfer of construction land was mainly from farmland and water bodies, with the transferred area of 218.3 km2 (69.2%) and 78.9 km2 (25.0%). These transitions were mainly responsible for the thermal deterioration in the study area. The transition of farmland to construction land contributed the most (66.3% and 81.6%) to thermal deterioration in the original medium temperature area (level III). The transition of water bodies to construction land was the main driving force in rapidly upgrading NLST level I into level IV (55.8%) and level V (58.6%). These findings provided detailed information for decision support in optimizing land use structure to fight against the thermal deterioration caused by urbanization.

Urban Sprawl, Socioeconomic Features, and Travel Patterns in Middle East Countries: A Case Study in Iran

The present study aimed to investigate different socioeconomic factors as well as the perceptions and travel behaviors associated with urban sprawl in two cities of different sizes in Iran, as a developing country in the Middle East. Four Weighted Least Squares (WLS) regression models were developed for Hamedan and Nowshahr, as examples of large and small cities in Iran, respectively. The findings showed different correlations related to urban sprawl between Iranian cities and high-income countries in terms of socioeconomic and travel behavior determinants. Urban sprawl around home in Hamedan was positively correlated with the number of cars and driving licenses in households, the use of a private car for trips, and less use of public transport. Urban sprawl around homes in Nowshahr was related to an increased number of cars, the use of private cars for non-commuting trips, less sense of belonging to the neighborhood, and lower income. Additionally, urban sprawl around workplaces was correlated with main daily activity, number of non-commuting trips, mode of choice for non-commuting, and residential location choice in Hamedan a swell as monthly income, daily shopping area, frequency of public transport use, quality of recreational facilities, length of time for living in the current home, and commuting distance in Nowshahr.

Land Consumption and Land Take: Enhancing Conceptual Clarity for Evaluating Spatial Governance in the EU Context

Rapid expansion of settlements and related infrastructures is a global trend that comes with severe environmental, economic, and social costs. Steering urbanization toward well-balanced compactness is thus acknowledged as an important strategic orientation in UN Sustainable Development Goal 11 (SDG-11) via the SDG-indicator “Ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate.” The EU’s simultaneous commitment to being “a frontrunner in implementing […] the SDGs” and to striving for “no net land take until 2050” calls for relating the concepts of land consumption and land take to each other. Drawing on an EU-centred questionnaire study, a focus group and a literature review, we scrutinize definitions of land consumption and land take, seeking to show how they are interrelated, and questioning the comparability of respective indicators. We argue that conceptual clarifications and a bridging of the two notions are much needed, and that the precision required for definitions and applications is context-dependent. While approximate understandings may suffice for general communication and dissemination objectives, accurate and consistent interpretations of the discussed concepts seem indispensable for monitoring and reporting purposes. We propose ways of addressing existing ambiguities and suggest prioritizing the term land take in the EU context. Thereby, we aim to enhance conceptual clarity around land consumption and land take—a precondition for solidly informing respective policies and decisions.

Effects of Hierarchical City Centers on the Intensity and Direction of Urban Land Expansion: A Case Study of Beijing

Worldwide urban spatial expansion has become a hot topic in recent decades. To develop effective urban growth containment strategies, it is important to understand the spatial patterns and driving forces of urban sprawl. By employing a spatial analysis method and land use survey data for the years 1996–2010, this study explores the effects of hierarchical administrative centers on the intensity and direction of urban land expansion in a Beijing municipality. The results are as follows: (1) land development intensity and expansion speeds are both affected significantly by the municipal and district and county centers where the governments hold a lot of administrative, public, and economic resources. (2) The distances to the administrative centers are determinant factors for the direction of urban land expansion. Except for several subregions adjacent to the municipal center, the closer the area is to an administrative center, the more likely it is that the expansion direction points toward the center. (3) The spatial patterns of urban land development are shaped jointly by governments at different levels, and transportation lines also play a role in remote areas. These findings are expected to have consulting value for future policymaking on urban land use and management in mega-cities, especially those with strong local government powers in other transition economies and developing countries.

Data Analysis of Land Use Change and Urban and Rural Impacts in Lagos State, Nigeria

This study examines land use change and impacts on urban and rural activity in Lagos State, Nigeria. To achieve this, multi-temporal land use and land cover (LULC) datasets derived from the GlobeLand30 product of years 2000 and 2010 for urban and rural areas of Lagos State were imported into ArcMap 10.6 and converted to raster files (raster thematic maps) for spatial analysis in the FRAGSTATS situated in the Patch Analyst. Thus, different landscape metrics were computed to generate statistical results. The results have shown that fragmentation of cultivated lands increased in the rural areas but decreased in the urban areas. Also, the findings display that land-use change resulted in incremental fragmentation of forest in the urban areas, and reduction in the rural areas. The fragmentation measure of diversity increased in the urban areas, while it decreased in the rural areas during the period of study. These results suggest that cultivated land fragmentation is a complex process connected with socio-economic trends at regional and local levels. In addition, this study has shown that landscape metrics can be used to understand the spatial pattern of LULC change in an urban-rural context. Finally, the outcomes of this study will help the policymakers at the three levels of governments in Nigeria to make crucial informed decisions about sustainable land use.

Sustainable Population Growth in Low-Density Areas in a New Technological Era: Prospective Thinking on How to Support Planning Policies Using Complex Spatial Models

Urban development is the result of the interaction between anthropogenic and environmental dimensions. From the perspective of its density, it ranges from high-density populated areas, associated with large cities that concentrate the main economic and social thrust of societies, to low-density populated areas (e.g., rural areas, small–medium-sized cities). Against the backdrop of the new technological and environmental era, this commentary offers insights on how to support spatial planning policies for sustainable urban growth in low-density areas. We propose the integration of technological drivers such as Internet networks, telecommuting, distance-learning education, the use of electric cars, etc. into the complex spatial models to project and thus to identify the best locations for urban development in low-density areas. This understanding can help to mitigate the disparities between high- and low-density populated areas, and to reduce the inequality among regions as promoted in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals.

Comparative Assessment of the Built-Up Area Expansion Based on Corine Land Cover and Landsat Datasets: A Case Study of a Post-Socialist City

Monitoring uncontained built-up area expansion remains a complex challenge for the development and implementation of a sustainable planning system. In this regard, proper planning requires accurate monitoring tools and up-to-date information on rapid territorial transformations. The purpose of the study was to assess built-up area expansion, comparing two freely available and widely used datasets, respectively, Corine Land Cover and Landsat, to each other, as well as the ground truth, with the goal of identifying the most cost-effective and reliable tool. The analysis was based on the largest post-socialist city in the European Union, the capital of Romania, Bucharest, and its neighboring Ilfov County, from 1990 to 2018. This study generally represents a new approach to measuring the process of urban expansion, offering insights about the strengths and limitations of the two datasets through a multi-level territorial perspective. The results point out discrepancies between the datasets, both at the macro-scale level and at the administrative unit’s level. On the macro-scale level, despite the noticeable differences, the two datasets revealed the spatiotemporal magnitude of the expansion of the built-up area and can be a useful tool for supporting the decision-making process. On the smaller territorial scale, detailed comparative analyses through five case-studies were conducted, indicating that, if used alone, limitations on the information that can be derived from the datasets would lead to inaccuracies, thus significantly limiting their potential to be used in the development of enforceable regulation in urban planning.

From Rural Spaces to Peri-Urban Districts: Metropolitan Growth, Sparse Settlements and Demographic Dynamics in a Mediterranean Region

Considering settlement characteristics and population dynamics together over multiple spatio-temporal scales, the present study analyzes the spatial distribution of sparse settlements and population surrounding a large city in Southern Europe (Athens, Greece), in relation with long-term metropolitan growth and recent economic downturns. Results of the analysis identify regional-scale processes of urban compaction during economic expansion (2000s) with incorporation of scattered settlements in a high-density urban fabric, and moderate urban dispersion affecting low-density, peripheral areas in the subsequent period of recession (2010s). However, more heterogeneous dynamics were observed at the local scale. With economic expansion, a slight increase in the number of settlements was observed in local districts experiencing intense sprawl in earlier decades. With recession, a slight decrease in the number of settlements was, in turn, recorded in some rural districts surrounding compact urban centers, likely acting as local hotspots of urban re-densification. Given the multiplicity of socioeconomic factors involved, our findings highlight how urban development follows sequential phases of compaction and dispersion, based on locally differentiated spatial regimes characterizing settlement expansion and population growth. Sustainable urban management should face more actively with increasingly fragmented settlement dynamics at the fringe, prefiguring an appropriate spatial balance between urban centers and sparse settlements in light of recent demographic trends.

Unraveling the (Uneven) Linkage? A Reflection on Population Aging and Suburbanization in a Mediterranean Perspective

A complex interplay between socioeconomic transformations and demographic dynamics has characterized the long-term development of European countries. As a characteristic example of such linkage, the present study focuses on the spatial relationship between metropolitan growth and population age structure. Preferences for urban and suburban locations reflect complex socioeconomic phenomena such as sprawl, class segregation, gentrification and filtering. However, the spatial linkage between sprawl and demographic transitions was relatively poorly analyzed, and should be more extensively investigated in relation with population dynamics and socioeconomic structures at local scale. By reviewing pertinent literature, this study outlines how space exerts a non-neutral impact on population age structures in Europe, shaping housing needs and influencing settlement patterns and processes of urban transformation. While suburban locations have concentrated younger families and larger households in Northern and Western Europe, the socio-demographic composition of new settlements is increasingly dominated by older inhabitants in the Mediterranean region. Results of this work suggest how discontinuous urban expansion was specifically associated with an elder, wealthy population with high standard of living and a preference for specific housing locations such as detached villas with gardens and swimming pools.

A new framework of land use efficiency for the coordination among food, economy and ecology in regional development

Great challenges regarding land use conflicts in rapid urbanization call for deeper research on land use efficiency (LUE) from the perspective of sustainable land use for the coordination among food security, economic development, and ecological protection. This study firstly develops a new framework of LUE based upon the expectations in land use and the coordination among three sub-categories in food production, economic development, and ecological protection, then, uses the coupling coordination degree model to quantify the spatial differentiation characteristics and coupling coordination relationships among three sub-categories, and finally uses the multivariable linear regression and geographical detectors to analyze the impact factors of sub-category efficiency. The framework is applied to Jiangsu Province in eastern China by using ten indicators (i.e., cultivated land quality, grain output, multiple cropping index, average GDP per km², population density, proportion of industry and service industry, vegetation cover index, water conservation index, soil retention index, and carbon sequestration index) in terms of food production, economy, and ecology analysis at the county level. Compared with expectations, the LUE of Jiangsu in food production, economic development, and ecological protection is 54.15%, 85.56%, and 54.95%, respectively, indicating that Jiangsu has great potential for sustainable land use. The coupling coordination degree in land use generally synchronizes with the coupling degree, accounting for 65.34% of the province's area, of which 75.00% are in lower-coupling & lower-coordination, medium-coupling & medium-coordination. Among all the factors, proportion of industry and service industry, population density, multiple cropping index, average GDP per km², and water conservation index have the most important roles in the coordinated development of land use sub-systems. Therefore, we suggest land use/urban management need to implement more integrated planning and differentiated strategies to stimulate land use potential and maintain efficient and sustainable land use.

Factors Underlying Life Quality in Urban Contexts: Evidence from an Industrial City (Arak, Iran)

Cities play a vital role in local development providing a high education level, specialized jobs and advanced services. When assessing living conditions and wellbeing in cities, economic indicators alone are generally unable to evaluate the inherent complexity of the ‘quality of life’ issue in urban environments. With rapid urbanization, shortage of infrastructures and services emerged in metropolitan regions of developing countries, leading to disadvantaged settlements, urban poverty, lower citizens’ satisfaction, and an overall decline in life quality. Based on these premises, the present study illustrates a subjective investigation of life quality in an emerging economy such as Iran, focusing on Arak, the fourth largest industrial pole of the country. Based on a literature review on quality of life in industrial cities of emerging economies, subjective indicators of citizens’ satisfaction on living quality in Arak were identified and quantified using empirical results from a field survey. Results of our study show that the overall satisfaction for living quality in Arak is rather low, reaching the lowest rank in the issues of environmental sanitation and public transportation. Lack of investments in urban infrastructure justifies the low citizens’ perception of life quality in Arak city. The paper concludes outlining the urgent need of homogeneous and comparable macro- and micro-data on multiple aspects of quality of life at both city-level and metropolitan-level in emerging economies.

Population Dynamics and Agglomeration Factors: A Non-Linear Threshold Estimation of Density Effects

Although Southern Europe is relatively homogeneous in terms of settlement characteristics and urban dynamics, spatial heterogeneity in its population distribution is still high, and differences across regions outline specific demographic patterns that require in-depth investigation. In such contexts, density-dependent mechanisms of population growth are a key factor regulating socio-demographic dynamics at various spatial levels. Results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution of the resident population in Greece contributes to identifying latent (density-dependent) processes of metropolitan growth over a sufficiently long time interval (1961-2011). Identification of density-dependent patterns of population growth contributes to the analysis of socioeconomic factors underlying demographic divides, possibly distinguishing between the effects of population concentration and dispersion. Population growth rates were non-linearly correlated with population density, highlighting a positive (or negative) impact of urban concentration on demographic growth when population is lower (or higher) than a fixed threshold (2800 and 1300 inhabitants/km2 in 1961 and 2011, respectively). In a context of low population density (less than 20 inhabitants/km2), the relationship between density and growth was again negative, contrasting with the positive and linear relationship observed in denser contexts. This result evidences a sort of ‘depopulation’ trap that leads to accelerated population decline under a defined density threshold. An improved understanding of density-dependent mechanisms of population growth and decline contributes to rethinking strategies of sustainable development and social policies more adapted to heterogeneous regional contexts.

A comparative analysis of urban impervious surface and green space and their dynamics among 318 different size cities in China in the past 25 years

Urban impervious surface (UIS) and urban green space (UGS) fractions in a city are essential indicators in supporting urban planning and management. However, little is known about the dynamics of urban expansion and the resultant UIS/UGS fraction in different size cities in China over time. We comparatively analyzed the urban expansion, UIS/UGS, and their dynamics among 318 different size cities during 1990-2015 derived from the China Land Use/cover Datasets (CLUDs) and the UIS/UGS datasets. The results indicate that the urban expansion area for the 318 cities increased by 2.32 × 10⁴ km² during 1990-2015, with an average growth percentage of 4.37%. Megacities experienced dramatic expansion between 1990 and 2000, and the urban expansion of large and medium cities increased rapidly in the following decade. During 2010-2015, the urban expansion of small cities notably increased. Meanwhile, the proportion of the UIS fraction in newly expanded urban land continuously decreased during 1990-2015. Compared to the other three size cities, the proportion of the UGS fraction in megacities was the highest (24.55%) in 1990 and then increased (27.99-31.97%) in newly expanded urban land during 1990-2015 due to ecological construction. Thus, more attention should be paid to the dynamics of urban expansion, especially in small cities. The proportions of UGS in large, medium, and small cities are relatively low, and urban environment needs to be improved for greenness and livability in the future.

Rural in Town: Traditional Agriculture, Population Trends, and Long-Term Urban Expansion in Metropolitan Rome

Mediterranean regions have experienced a shift from accelerated urban growth typical of a post-industrial phase to a more recent spatial delocalization of population and economic activities reflecting discontinuous settlement expansion, land take, and the abandonment of cultivated areas around central cities. On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of land-use, settlement, and demographic indicators, the present study explores urban growth and population density over a sufficiently long time period in a metropolitan region of Southern Europe (Rome, Italy). Local-scale population trends were compared with the evolution of the primary sector (workers in agriculture, number of farms, cultivated land) between 1951 and 2011. Our results indicate non-linear growth waves alternating compact and discontinuous expansion shaping fringe land. The future development of metropolitan regions is increasingly dependent on the relationship between urban diffusion and economic viability of peri-urban agriculture. Crop abandonment and land take rates increase in local contexts where peri-urban agriculture rapidly declines. Policies managing ex-urban development and promoting the recovery of fringe soils are increasingly required to contain the expansion of dispersed settlements and preserve relict agricultural systems from land conversion to urban use.

Examining the Relationship between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Linkage Using Coupling Analysis: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Urban land expansion (ULE) has caused negative effects as a result of urbanization and industrialization in China in the past few decades. Strengthening economic linkage and the cooperation among regions has great implications for effectively controlling disorderly ULE and achieving sustainable and intensive land use. Previous research has rarely investigated the relationship between ULE and economic linkage. Therefore, this study analyzes the spatial patterns of ULE and economic linkage in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) of China via social network analysis and a gravity model. Moreover, the spatial relationship and coupling level between ULE and economic linkage are investigated by building a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model and a coupling coordination degree model, respectively. The results indicate that the YREB experienced rapid ULE, and the area increased from 4.24 × 104 km2 in 1990 to 7.89 × 104 km2 in 2015. The cities that experience rapid ULE have gradually transferred from the east to the west of the YREB. In addition, the economic linkage in eastern cities is evidently higher than that of western cities. Our bivariate spatial model further proves that there are strong negative spatial correlation characteristics between ULE and economic linkage. This indicates that the higher the economic linkage, the lower the speed of ULE. Moreover, the coupling coordination between ULE and economic linkage show that the overall coupling stage changed from an antagonistic stage to a running-in stage. However, the coupling coordination in the YREB presented significant spatial heterogeneity, and most cities in urban agglomeration had a relationship between ULE and economic linkage that was barely balanced, slightly unbalanced, or seriously unbalanced. By considering the limitations and obstacles of current initiatives, suggestions and policy implications for sustainable land use at large regional scales are suggested.

Revisiting the “City Life Cycle”: Global Urbanization and Implications for Regional Development

A comparative, diachronic analysis of urban population dynamics allows for the identification of specific demographic trajectories influencing metropolitan expansion worldwide. However, a wide-ranging characterization of long-term population trends in metropolitan areas identifying sequential urban cycles with distinctive demographic dynamics is still incomplete. By hypothesizing a trade-off between ‘fast’ and ‘slow’ population dynamics that reflect ‘high’ and ‘low’ fertility regimes in both advanced and emerging economies, the present work investigates the relationship between city size (considering absolute population) and population growth rate in 1857 metropolitan agglomerations (>300,000 inhabitants in 2014) of 154 countries across the globe. Analysis covers a relatively long time period (1950–2030) and uses descriptive statistics (average and coefficient of variation) of the spatial series of population growth rates derived from United Nations demographics by metropolitan agglomeration and time interval. The results of our study indicate that metropolitan growth was associated with highly variable rates of population growth, being highly positive before 2000 and declining progressively in the subsequent decades. Despite important differences at the regional scale, an inverse relationship between population growth and city size was observed up to the late 1990s, with a higher spatial heterogeneity reflecting a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics during recent years. Rapid population expansion dependent on city size and a higher spatial heterogeneity in growth rates insensitive to city size, evidence distinct metropolitan cycles reflecting worldwide transition from high to low fertility, ageing, and more unpredictable migration patterns.

Towards Local Forms of Sprawl: A Brief Reflection on Mediterranean Urbanization

Urban sprawl is a complex phenomenon that requires a comprehensive reflection on the most significant patterns and underlying processes. While the “sprawl” notion parallels hegemonic concepts such as economic competitiveness, social cohesion, and polycentric development, an integrated analysis of sprawl patterns and processes in paradigmatic socioeconomic contexts is increasingly required to reconcile different disciplinary visions, contributing to a holistic interpretation of metropolitan change. At the same time, sprawl is an increasingly evident product of local socioeconomic contexts all over the world. A comprehensive investigation of multifaceted, form–function relationships underlying sprawl—based on a quali-quantitative analysis of representative cases—is a crucial pre-requisite of both monitoring and policy actions at multiple spatial scales, from urban/regional to national/continental levels. The present contribution proposes a contextualization of the sprawl notion in Southern Europe—a socioeconomic context characterized by compact and continuous urbanization for a long time. An integrated approach based on a visual analysis of urban and peri-urban landscapes—integrated with an extended literature survey—allows for a definition of a specific sprawl model in Southern Europe, sharing some features with the United States ideal type of sprawl and showing peculiarities with respect to common models of urban dispersion typical of Northern and Western Europe. Policies aimed at containing urban dispersion may definitely benefit from a local-based definition of sprawl, considering the specificity of form–function relationships and the underlying socioeconomic context.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the housing bubble's contribution to the proliferation of illegal landfills - The case of Gran Canaria

Illegal landfills are the source of many impacts that can alter the environment and represent a public health risk. This study investigates their spatiotemporal distribution in two representative areas of Gran Canaria: northwest (Zone A) and east (Zone B). Illegal landfill occurrence was simulated between 2000 and 2018, to estimate and spatially locate the surface growth of illegal landfills based on cellular automata, cellular automata-Markov and multiobjective land allocation models. The proliferation of illegal landfills in 2018 was simulated following the calibration and validation of the proposed models. Models' accuracy was assessed using Kappa index and landscape metrics. The cellular automata-Markov model had the best performance. The model simulations predicted an increase of 52.3 ha and 81.5 ha affected by illegal landfills in Zone A and Zone B for 2018, respectively. The interannual growth rate of surfaces affected by illegal landfills for the period between 2000 and 2006 was 4.5% and 9.5% and between 2006 and 2012 it was 6.6% and 6.7%, for Zone A and Zone B respectively. The growth of illegal landfills between 2000 and 2006 was higher in urban areas, construction sites, and industrial zones, and may be closely related to the process of urban expansion linked to the real estate boom. The latter would have a deep impact on the landscape due to the proliferation of illegal construction and demolition waste. The growth rate of illegal landfills in urban environments fell during the later period of urban expansion. Overall, simulation outputs showed the model's ability to correctly reproduce the distribution patterns for illegal landfill proliferation. Even though the simulated spatial location of illegal landfills was not highly accurate, the models built in this study provide an informative tool to policy makers to aid the process creating policies for environmental protection as well as territorial planning.