Monitoring hydrological drought using long-term satellite-based precipitation data

A hybrid ensemble learning merging approach for enhancing the super drought computation over Lake Victoria Basin

This study introduces a novel Hybrid Ensemble Machine-Learning (HEML) algorithm to merge long-term satellite-based reanalysis precipitation products (SRPPs), enabling the estimation of super drought events in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) during the period of 1984 to 2019. This study considers three widely used Machine learning (ML) models, including RF (Random Forest), GBM (Gradient Boosting Machine), and KNN (k-nearest Neighbors), for the emerging HEML approach. The three SRPPs, including CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station), ERA5-Land, and PERSIANN-CDR (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network-Climate Data Record), were used to merge for developing new precipitation estimates from HEML model. Additionally, classification and regression models were employed as base learners in developing this algorithm. The newly developed HEML datasets were compared with other ML and SRPP products for super-drought monitoring. The Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate super drought characteristics, including Drought frequency (DF), Drought Duration (DD), and Drought Intensity (DI) from machine learning and SRPPs products in LVB and compared with RG observation. The results revealed that the HEML algorithm shows excellent performance (CC = 0.93) compared to the single ML merging method and SRPPs against observation. Furthermore, the HEML merging product adeptly captures the spatiotemporal patterns of super drought characteristics during both training (1984-2009) and testing (2010-2019) periods. This research offers crucial insights for near-real-time drought monitoring, water resource management, and informed policy decisions.

Investigating the utility of satellite-based precipitation products for simulating extreme discharge events: an exhaustive model-driven approach for a tropical river basin in India

Satellite-based precipitation estimates are a critical source of information for understanding and predicting hydrological processes at regional or global scales. Given the potential variability in the accuracy and reliability of these estimates, comprehensive performance assessments are essential before their application in specific hydrological contexts. In this study, six satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs), namely, CHIRPS, CMORPH, GSMaP, IMERG, MSWEP, and PERSIANN, were evaluated for their utility in hydrological modeling, specifically in simulating streamflow using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The performance of the VIC model under varying flow conditions and timescales was assessed using statistical indicators, viz., R2, KGE, PBias, RMSE, and RSR. The findings of the study demonstrate the effectiveness of VIC model in simulating hydrological components and its applicability in evaluating the accuracy and reliability of SPPs. The SPPs were shown to be valuable for streamflow simulation at monthly and daily timescales, as confirmed by various performance measures. Moreover, the performance of SPPs for simulating extreme flow events (streamflow above 75%, 90%, and 95%) using the VIC model was assessed and a significant decrease in the performance was observed for high-flow events. Comparative analysis revealed the superiority of IMERG and CMORPH for streamflow simulation at daily timescale and high-flow conditions. In contrast, the performances of CHIRPS and PERSIANN were found to be poor. This study highlights the importance of thoroughly assessing the SPPs in modeling diverse flow conditions.

GEE can prominently reduce uncertainties from input data and parameters of the remote sensing-driven distributed hydrological model

The coupling of multisource remote sensing data and the lack of measured runoff introduce input data and model parameters uncertainties to the remote sensing-driven distributed hydrological model (RS-DHM). The PB satellite remote sensing datasets of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) are widely used in RS-DHM and remote sensing runoff inversion research, but whether GEE can reduce the two abovementioned uncertainties is still unknown. To answer this question, twelve remote sensing data sources provided by GEE were used in this study to drive a typical RS-DHM called the remote sensing-driven distributed time-variant gain model (RS-DTVGM) and the remote sensing runoff inversion technology called remote sensing hydrological station (RSHS), and the contribution of GEE to the improving hydrological model uncertainties was quantitatively analyzed from 2001 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the GEE-based improved data preparation not only effectively reduced the uncertainty in the input data with better spatial-temporal continuity and a 6.20 % reduction in the total area occupied by invalid grids, but also enhanced the operational efficiency by reducing the image number, memory size and data processing time of the satellite remote sensing data by 83.63 %, 99.53 %, and 98.73 %, respectively; (2) the GEE-based RSHS technology provided sufficient data support for parameter adjustment and accuracy validation of the RS-DTVGM, which effectively reduced the uncertainty in the model parameters and increased the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) in the calibration and validation period from 0.67 to 0.87 and 0.75, respectively; and (3) the calibrated RS-DTVGM was more reliable and robust, and its runoff and evapotranspiration were consistent with the actual statistical data. In the future, GEE and RSHS technology should be widely adopted to drive the RS-DHM to more quickly and easily provide reliable hydrological processes simulation results for integrated water resource management, therefore achieving win-win results in terms of efficiency and accuracy.

Integrated drought monitoring and assessment using multi-sensor and multi-temporal earth observation datasets: a case study of two agriculture-dominated states of India

In the current scenario of climate change, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency and severity of drought events. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of different drought events to plan for water resource utilization. The present study aims to assess and quantify the impact of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought events from 2001 to 2017 over two large states of India (i.e., Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh) using multi-temporal earth observation data at a finer resolution of 1 km. Drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Water level Index (SWI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were derived from precipitation, groundwater level, vegetation indices, and land surface temperature data respectively to map the spatial extent and severity of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought. Assessment of individual drought indices was carried out to understand the effect of these drought events separately on the study area. Area vulnerable with multiple droughts in the region was identified by integrating multiple drought indices to derive a composite drought map. This included the locations that are hotspots in terms of the occurrence of drought events of different types. The spatial pattern captured in the composite drought map indicates that most of the study areas are prone to drought events varying from mild to extreme severity. Madhya Pradesh is more prone to meteorological and agricultural drought events compared to hydrological drought. Maharashtra state is prone to three types of drought with agricultural drought being the dominant one. This study provides an opportunity to investigate and understand the drought phenomenon in a comprehensive manner at comparatively finer spatial resolution.

A Framework on Analyzing Long-Term Drought Changes and Its Influential Factors Based on the PDSI

Drought is one of the most frequent and most widespread natural disasters worldwide, significantly impacting agricultural production and the ecological environment. An investigation of long-term drought changes and its influencing factors provides not only an understanding of historical droughts but also a scientific basis for the protection of future water resources. This study investigated the temporal characteristics of drought in a study site located in the center of Southwest China (SWC) over a 700-year period (AD 1300–2005) using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The linkage between drought and its influencing factors is discussed. An algorithm based on the random forest (RF) method was proposed to analyze the dynamic influence of the factors on drought. We also examined the linkages between the demise of two dynasties and historical drought events. The results showed that the study site was a drought-prone area in the study period and experienced a non-significant drying trend in all centuries, except for the 17th century; a total of 232 droughts were detected in the study site from AD 1300–2005. The wavelet spectrum of the PDSI series showed the existence of 4-, 8-, 16-, 32-, and 128-year-periods. A strong correlation existed between the sunspot numbers and the PDSI. The correlation of the period between the PDSI and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) series in the same frequency domain was weak, while the ENSO exhibited a strong interaction with the PDSI in some time periods. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and PDSI had no resonance period in the low-frequency region, but there was a period of 80–130 years in the high-frequency region. The relative rates of influence of the ENSO, sunspot numbers, and PDO during AD 1700–1996 were 38.40%, 31.81%, and 29.8%, respectively. However, the mechanism of the interaction between droughts and the influential factors is complex, and the dominant factor changed over time. The analysis of long-term drought changes based on the PDSI series may provide clues to understand the development of historical events.

How does precipitation data influence the land surface data assimilation for drought monitoring?

Droughts are among the costliest natural hazards that occur annually worldwide. Their socioeconomic impacts are significant and widespread, affecting the sustainable development of human societies. This study investigates the influence of different forcing precipitation data in driving Land Surface Models (LSMs) and characterizing drought conditions. Here, we utilize our recently developed LSM data assimilation system for probabilistically monitoring drought over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The Noah-MP LSM model is forced with two widely used precipitation data including IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) and NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation System). Soil moisture and evapotranspiration are known to have a strong relationship in the land-atmospheric interaction processes. Unlike other studies that attempted the individual assimilation of these variables, here we propose a multivariate data assimilation framework. Therefore, in both modeling scenarios, the data assimilation approach is used to integrate remotely sensed MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) evapotranspiration and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) soil moisture observations into the Noah-MP LSM. The results of this study indicate that the source of precipitation data has a significant impact on the performance of LSM data assimilation system for drought monitoring. The findings revealed that NLDAS and IMERG precipitation can result in a significant difference in identifying drought severity depending on the region and time of the year. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that regardless of the precipitation forcing data product used in the land surface data assimilation system, our modeling framework can effectively detect the drought impacts on crop yield. Additionally, we calculated the drought probability based on the ensemble of soil moisture percentiles and found that there exist temporal and spatial discrepancies in drought probability maps generated from the NLDAS and IMERG precipitation forcings.

Sammen S. A new spatiotemporal two-stage standardized weighted procedure for regional drought analysis

Drought is a complex phenomenon that occurs due to insufficient precipitation. It does not have immediate effects, but sustained drought can affect the hydrological, agriculture, economic sectors of the country. Therefore, there is a need for efficient methods and techniques that properly determine drought and its effects. Considering the significance and importance of drought monitoring methodologies, a new drought assessment procedure is proposed in the current study, known as the Maximum Spatio-Temporal Two-Stage Standardized Weighted Index (MSTTSSWI). The proposed MSTTSSWI is based on the weighting scheme, known as the Spatio-Temporal Two-Stage Standardized Weighting Scheme (STTSSWS). The potential of the weighting scheme is based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the steady-state probabilities. Further, the STTSSWS computes spatiotemporal weights in two stages for various drought categories and stations. In the first stage of the STTSSWS, the SPI, SPEI, and the steady-state probabilities are calculated for each station at a 1-month time scale to assign weights for varying drought categories. However, in the second stage, these weights are further propagated based on spatiotemporal characteristics to obtain new weights for the various drought categories in the selected region. The STTSSWS is applied to the six meteorological stations of the Northern area, Pakistan. Moreover, the spatiotemporal weights obtained from STTSSWS are used to calculate MSTTSSWI for regional drought characterization. The MSTTSSWI may accurately provide regional spatiotemporal characteristics for the drought in the selected region and motivates researchers and policymakers to use the more comprehensive and accurate spatiotemporal characterization of drought in the selected region.

Multi–Proxy Reconstruction of Drought Variability in China during the Past Two Millennia

Drought imposes serious challenges to ecosystems and societies and has plagued mankind throughout the ages. To understand the long-term trend of drought in China, a series of annual self-calibrating Palmer drought severity indexes (scPDSI), which is a semi-physical drought index based on the land surface water balance, were reconstructed during AD 56~2000. Multi-proxy records of tree-ring width and stalagmite oxygen isotope δ18O were used for this reconstruction, along with random forest regression. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the reconstruction results were analyzed, and comparisons were made with previous studies. Results showed that (1) China witnessed a drought-based state during the past 2000 years (mean value of scPDSI was −0.3151), with an average annual drought area of 85,000 km2; 4 wetting periods, i.e., the Han Dynasty (AD 56~220), the Tang Dynasty (AD 618~907), the Ming Dynasty (AD 1368~1644), and the Qing Dynasty (AD 1644~1912); and 2 drying periods, i.e., the Era of Disunity (AD 221~580) and the Song Dynasty (AD 960~1279). (2) Three different alternating fluctuation dry-wet modes (i.e., interannual, multidecadal, and centennial scales) in China were all significantly (p-value < 0.001) correlated with the amplitude and frequency of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. (3) According to the spatial models disassembled from the rotated empirical orthogonal function, China was divided into nine dry-wet regions: northwestern China, Xinjiang, southwestern China, southeastern China, the Loess plateau, central China, southwestern Tibet, eastern China, and northeastern China. (4) The random forest (RF) was found to be accurate and stable for the reconstruction of drought variability in China compared with linear regression.

Investigation of Spatial and Temporal Variability of Hydrological Drought in Slovenia Using the Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI)

Drought is a complex phenomenon with high spatial and temporal variability. Water scarcity has become a growing problem in Slovenia in recent decades. Therefore, the spatial and temporal variability of hydrological drought was investigated in this study by analysing the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). Monthly discharge data series from 46 gauging stations for the period 1961–2016 were used to calculate SSI values at five different time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months). The results indicate that the frequency and intensity of droughts in Slovenia has increased in recent decades at most of the analysed gauging stations and at all time scales considered. Spring and summer periods were identified as critical in terms of water deficit. SSI values vary independently from the location of the gauging station, confirming that drought is a regional phenomenon, even in a small country such as Slovenia. However, SSI values vary considerably depending on the time scale chosen. This was also confirmed by the results of the hierarchical clustering of the number of extreme droughts, as various time scales resulted in a different distribution of gauging stations by individual groups.

Application of Random Forest Algorithm for Merging Multiple Satellite Precipitation Products across South Korea

Precipitation is a crucial component of the water cycle and plays a key role in hydrological processes. Recently, satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) have provided grid-based precipitation with spatiotemporal variability. However, SPPs contain a lot of uncertainty in estimated precipitation, and the spatial resolution of these products is still relatively coarse. To overcome these limitations, this study aims to generate new grid-based daily precipitation based on a combination of rainfall observation data with multiple SPPs for the period of 2003–2017 across South Korea. A Random Forest (RF) machine-learning algorithm model was applied for producing a new merged precipitation product. In addition, several statistical linear merging methods have been adopted to compare with the results achieved from the RF model. To investigate the efficiency of RF, rainfall data from 64 observed Automated Synoptic Observation System (ASOS) installations were collected to analyze the accuracy of products through several continuous as well as categorical indicators. The new precipitation values produced by the merging procedure generally not only report higher accuracy than a single satellite rainfall product but also indicate that RF is more effective than the statistical merging method. Thus, the achievements from this study point out that the RF model might be applied for merging multiple satellite precipitation products, especially in sparse region areas.

Flood Mitigation in the Transboundary Chenab River Basin: A Basin-Wise Approach from Flood Forecasting to Management

Rapid and reliable flood information is crucial for minimizing post-event catastrophes in the complex river basins of the world. The Chenab River basin is one of the complex river basins of the world, facing adverse hydrometeorological conditions with unpredictable hydrologic response. Resultantly, many vicinities along the river undergo destructive inundation, resulting in huge life and economic losses. In this study, Hydrologic Engineering Centre–Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) and HEC–River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models were used for flood forecasting and inundation modeling of the Chenab River basin. The HEC-HMS model was used for peak flow simulation of 2014 flood event using Global Precipitation Mission (GMP) Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals-Final (IMERG-F), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission_Real Time (TRMM_3B42RT), and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation_Near Real Time (GSMaP_NRT) precipitation products. The calibration and validation of the HEC-RAS model were carried out for flood events of 1992 and 2014, respectively. The comparison of observed and simulated flow at the outlet indicated that IMERG-F has good peak flow simulation results. The simulated inundation extent revealed an overall accuracy of more than 90% when compared with satellite imagery. The HEC-RAS model performed well at Manning’s n of 0.06 for the river and the floodplain. From the results, it can be concluded that remote sensing integrated with HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS models could be one of the workable solutions for flood forecasting, inundation modeling, and early warning. The concept of integrated flood management (IFM) has also been translated into practical implementation for joint Indo-Pak management for flood mitigation in the transboundary Chenab River basin.

Monitoring Meteorological Drought in Southern China Using Remote Sensing Data

Severe meteorological drought is generally considered to lead to crop damage and loss. In this study, we created a new standard value by averaging the values distributed in the middle 30–70% instead of the traditional mean value, and we proposed a new index calculation method named Normalized Indices (NI) for meteorological drought monitoring after normalized processing. The TRMM-derived precipitation data, GLDAS-derived soil moisture data, and MODIS-derived vegetation condition data from 2003 to 2019 were used, and we compared the NI with commonly used Condition Indices (CI) and Anomalies Percentage (AP). Taking the mid-to-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) as an example, the drought monitoring results for paddy rice and winter wheat showed that (1) NI can monitor well the relative changes in real precipitation/soil moisture/vegetation conditions in both arid and humid regions, while meteorological drought was overestimated with CI and AP, and (2) due to the monitoring results of NI, the well-known drought event that occurred in the MLRYR from August to October 2019 had a much less severe impact on vegetation than expected. In contrast, precipitation deficiency induced an increase in sunshine and adequate heat resources, which improved crop growth in 78.8% of the area. This study discusses some restrictions of CI and AP and suggests that the new NI index calculation provides better meteorological drought monitoring in the MLRYR, thus offering a new approach for future drought monitoring studies.

Monitoring drought dynamics in China using Optimized Meteorological Drought Index (OMDI) based on remote sensing data sets

Timely and accurate monitoring of the spatiotemporal changes in drought is very important for the reduction in the social losses caused by drought. The Optimized Meteorological Drought Index (OMDI), originally established in southwestern China, showed great potential for drought monitoring over large regions on a large scale. However, the applicability of the index requires further evaluation, especially when used throughout China, which has a different agricultural divisions, variable climatic conditions, complex terrain and diverse land cover. In addition, the OMDI model relies on training data to construct local parameters for the model. On a large scale, it is of great significance to use multisource remote sensing data sets to construct OMDI model parameters. In this paper, the constrained optimization method was used to establish weights for the MODIS-derived Vegetation Conditional Index (VCI), TRMM-derived Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), and GLDAS-derived Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI) and calculate the OMDI based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and weather stations. The accuracy of the OMDI model was evaluated by using the correlation coefficient. Moreover, the spatiotemporal changes in drought were also analyzed through trend analysis, Mann-Kendall (MK) statistics and the Hurst index on the monthly and annual scales. The results showed that (1) the highest positive correlation between the OMDI and the SPI was SPI-1, which was higher than that for any other month interval, such as 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and 12 months of the SPI. The results indicated that the OMDI was suitable to monitor meteorological drought. (2) In the nine agricultural subareas in China, the degree of drought in the Yangtze River (DYR) area had the most severe evolution and change frequency. This region was very sensitive to drought in the past two decades. (3) The area with OMDI variation coefficient less than 0.1 accounted for 94%, indicating that the degree of drought fluctuates little; The linear tendency rate is 0.0004, and the area greater than 0 reaches 66.44%, indicating that the drought is developing in a lightning trend. (4) The Hurst index value is mostly higher than 0.5 (the area ratio is 56.31%), and the area of "Positive-Consistent" and "Negative- Opposite" accounted for 54.02%, indicating that more than half of China's area drought changes will show a trend of mitigation in the future.

Error Characteristics and Scale Dependence of Current Satellite Precipitation Estimates Products in Hydrological Modeling

Satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) are promising alternatives to gauge observations for hydrological applications (e.g., streamflow simulation), especially in remote areas with sparse observation networks. However, the existing SPEs products are still biased due to imperfections in retrieval algorithms, data sources and post-processing, which makes the effective use of SPEs a challenge, especially at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we used a distributed hydrological model to evaluate the simulated discharge from eight quasi-global SPEs at different spatial scales and explored their potential scale effects of SPEs on a cascade of basins ranging from approximately 100 to 130,000 km2. The results indicate that, regardless of the difference in the accuracy of various SPEs, there is indeed a scale effect in their application in discharge simulation. Specifically, when the catchment area is larger than 20,000 km2, the overall performance of discharge simulation emerges an ascending trend with the increase of catchment area due to the river routing and spatial averaging. Whereas below 20,000 km2, the discharge simulation capability of the SPEs is more randomized and relies heavily on local precipitation accuracy. Our study also highlights the need to evaluate SPEs or other precipitation products (e.g., merge product or reanalysis data) not only at the limited station scale, but also at a finer scale depending on the practical application requirements. Here we have verified that the existing SPEs are scale-dependent in hydrological simulation, and they are not enough to be directly used in very fine scale distributed hydrological simulations (e.g., flash flood). More advanced retrieval algorithms, data sources and bias correction methods are needed to further improve the overall quality of SPEs.

Assessment of Merged Satellite Precipitation Datasets in Monitoring Meteorological Drought over Pakistan

The current study evaluates the potential of merged satellite precipitation datasets (MSPDs) against rain gauges (RGs) and satellite precipitation datasets (SPDs) in monitoring meteorological drought over Pakistan during 2000–2015. MSPDs evaluated in the current study include Regional Weighted Average Least Square (RWALS), Weighted Average Least Square (WALS), Dynamic Clustered Bayesian model Averaging (DCBA), and Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging (DBMA) algorithms, while the set of SPDs is Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)-based Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG-V06), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 V7), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and ERA-Interim (re-analyses dataset). Several standardized precipitation indices (SPIs), including SPI-1, SPI-3, and SPI-12, are used to evaluate the performances of RGs, SPDs, and MSPDs across Pakistan as well as on a regional scale. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test is used to assess the trend of meteorological drought across different climate regions of Pakistan using these SPI indices. Results revealed higher performance of MSPDs than SPDs when compared against RGs for SPI estimates. The seasonal evaluation of SPIs from RGs, MSPDs, and SPDs in a representative drought year (2008) revealed mildly to moderate wetness in monsoon season while mild to moderate drought in winter season across Pakistan. However, the drought severity ranges from mild to severe drought in different years across different climate regions. MAPD (mean absolute percentage difference) shows high accuracy (MAPD <10%) for RWALS-MSPD, good accuracy (10% < MAPD <20%) for WALS-MSPD and DCBA-MSPD, while good to reasonable accuracy (20% < MAPD < 50%) for DCBA in different climate regions. Furthermore, MSPDs show a consistent drought trend as compared with RGs, while SPDs show poor performance. Overall, this study demonstrated significantly improved performance of MSPDs in monitoring the meteorological drought.

Multi-timescale assessment of propagation thresholds from meteorological to hydrological drought

Hydrological drought usually lags behind meteorological drought. Obtaining the propagation threshold (PT) from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is important for providing early warnings of hydrological drought. Previous studies have only used single timescales to characterize PT; however, a single timescale cannot accurately describe the propagation attributes from meteorological to hydrological drought because drought has multi-timescale features. In addition, several methods can be used to obtain PT, such as run theory, correlation analysis, and non-linear response methods. However, these methods might produce different estimates of PT. Here, multi-timescale drought indices, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), were used to represent meteorological drought and hydrological drought. PT estimates at multiple timescales (e.g., 1-month, 3-month, and 12-month) obtained from run theory, correlation analysis, and non-linear response methods were compared, and the possible reasons for differences in the PT estimates are discussed. We conducted a case study of three sub-basins (Xinfengjiang River, Qiuxiangjiang River, and Andunshui River) with low levels of human activity in the Dongjiang River Basin, which is located in a humid region in southern China. We found that estimates of PT differed at different timescales of drought indices and with different methods at the same timescales. Longer timescales of hydrological drought corresponded to larger PT and vice versa. The major cause of this pattern was the fact that different timescales of drought indices showed different response sensitivities to drought events. The PT obtained from run theory was the shortest; thus, run theory can provide conservative warnings to aid drought prevention and mitigation. Our findings can help drought managers select effective tools to manage the early stages of hydrological drought based on meteorological forecasts and thus minimize the negative impacts of hazards posed by drought.

Response of non-point source pollution to landscape pattern: case study in mountain-rural region, China

Landscape patterns have a substantial effect on non-point source (NPS) pollution in watersheds. Facilitating sustainable development of mountain-rural areas is a major priority for China. Knowledge of the impacts of various landscapes on water quality in these areas is critical to meeting environmental goals. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to create a hydrologic and water quality model of the study watershed; then, the relationship between water quality and landscape patterns was investigated using multiple linear regression and redundancy analysis. The results show that the western sub-basins had higher nitrogen pollution loads, and the total nitrogen concentration reached a maximum value of 3.91 mg/L; the eastern sub-basins had a higher pollution load of phosphorous featured by maximum total phosphorous concentration of 2.15 mg/L. The water quality of the entire watershed in all scenarios tended to deteriorate over time. Landscape metrics accounted for 81.7% of the total variation in pollutant indicators. The percentage of forest landscape was negatively correlated with NPS pollution, while other types of landscape showed a positive correlation. The patch density, landscape shape index, and largest patch index of urban and agricultural lands were negatively correlated with pollutant concentrations. Upland landscapes contributed more pollutants than paddy fields. Some measures, e.g., returning grassland and farmland to forest in steep regions and replacing upland crops with paddy fields, were recommended for mitigating NPS pollution in the study watershed.

Applicability of two satellite-based precipitation products for assessing rainfall erosivity in China

Soil erosion has become one of the most serious environmental problems worldwide, and rainfall is considered a crucial factor in water erosion. Rainfall erosivity is defined as the ability of precipitation to trigger soil erosion. The accurate assessment of rainfall erosivity is essential before taking appropriate measures to stop or slow down water erosion. In this study, we calculated the rainfall erosivity in China using the Xie model and two satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs). Gauge-based data from 2417 stations in China were used for a comparison of the results. We also proposed a procedure to assess the performance of the two SPPs using four statistical metrics and provided recommendations for different sub-regions at different time scales. The results showed that the annual rainfall erosivity based on the IMERG-F and TMPA 3B42-V7 products and the in situ gauge stations were 2014, 1954, and 2138 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·yr), respectively. The spatial correlation between IMERG-F and situ gauge stations is 0.944 and that between the TMPA 3B42-V7 product and situ gauge stations is 0.909. The variation trends of the two were highly similar to those of the gauge-based rainfall erosivity at all time scales. The TMPA 3B42-V7 product is recommended for estimating rainfall erosivity in Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin at monthly scale, in Haihe River Basin and China at seasonal scale, in the Haihe River Basin, Huaihe River Basin, Yellow River Basin at annual scale; while the IMERG-F is recommended for the remaining regions except Continental Basins at the three time scales. Generally, the IMERG-F has broader applicability than the TMPA 3B42-V7 product for estimating rainfall erosivity in China. The results of this study provide a reference for selecting suitable SPPs for rainfall erosivity estimates.

Adequacy of Near Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Products in Driving Flood Discharge Simulation in the Fuji River Basin, Japan

Flood management is an important topic worldwide. Precipitation is the most crucial factor in reducing flood-related risks and damages. However, its adequate quality and sufficient quantity are not met in many parts of the world. Currently, near real-time satellite precipitation products (NRT SPPs) have great potential to supplement the gauge rainfall. However, NRT SPPs have several biases that require corrections before application. As a result, this study investigated two statistical bias correction methods with different parameters for the NRT SPPs and evaluated the adequacy of its application in the Fuji River basin. We employed Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP)-NRT and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG)-Early for NRT SPPs as well as BTOP model (Block-wise use of the TOPMODEL (Topographic-based hydrologic model)) for flood runoff simulation. The results showed that the corrected SPPs by the 10-day ratio based bias correction method are consistent with the gauge data at the watershed scale. Compared with the original SPPs, the corrected SPPs improved the flood discharge simulation considerably. GSMaP-NRT and IMERG-Early have the potential for hourly river-flow simulation on a basin or large scale after bias correction. These findings can provide references for the applications of NRT SPPs in other basins for flood monitoring and early warning applications. It is necessary to investigate the impact of number of ground observation and their distribution patterns on bias correction and hydrological simulation efficiency, which is the future direction of this study.

Regression Models for Soil Water Storage Estimation Using the ESA CCI Satellite Soil Moisture Product: A Case Study in Northeast Portugal

The European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Soil Moisture (ESA CCI SM) product provides soil moisture estimates from radar satellite data with a daily temporal resolution. Despite validation exercises with ground data that have been performed since the product’s launch, SM has not yet been consistently related to soil water storage, which is a key step for its application for prediction purposes. This study aimed to analyse the relationship between soil water storage (S), which was obtained from soil water balance computations with ground meteorological data, and soil moisture, which was obtained from radar data, as affected by soil water storage capacity (Smax). As a case study, a 14-year monthly series of soil water storage, produced via soil water balance computations using ground meteorological data from northeast Portugal and Smax from 25 mm to 150 mm, were matched with the corresponding monthly averaged SM product. Linear (I) and logistic (II) regression models relating S with SM were compared. Model performance (r2 in the 0.8–0.9 range) varied non-monotonically with Smax, with it being the highest at an Smax of 50 mm. The logistic model (II) performed better than the linear model (I) in the lower range of Smax. Improvements in model performance obtained with segregation of the data series in two subsets, representing soil water recharge and depletion phases throughout the year, outlined the hysteresis in the relationship between S and SM.

Drought Monitoring Based on Remote Sensing in a Grain-Producing Region in the Cerrado–Amazon Transition, Brazil

Drought is a natural disaster that affects a country’s economy and food security. The monitoring of droughts assists in planning assertive actions to mitigate the resulting environmental and economic impacts. This work aimed to evaluate the performance of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) using rainfall data estimated by orbital remote sensing in the monitoring of meteorological drought in the Cerrado–Amazon transition region, Brazil. Historical series from 34 rain gauge stations, in addition to indirect measurements of monthly precipitation obtained by remote sensing using the products CHIRPS-2.0, PERSIANN-CDR, PERSIANN-CCS, PERSIANN, GPM-3IMERGMv6, and GPM-3IMERGDLv6, were used in this study. Drought events detected by SPI were related to a reduction in soybean production. The SPI calculated from the historical rain series estimated by remote sensing allowed monitoring droughts, enabling a high detailing of the spatial variability of droughts in the region, mainly during the soybean development cycle. Indirect precipitation measures associated with SPI that have adequate performance for detecting droughts in the study region were PERSIANN-CCS (January), CHIRPS-2.0 (February and November), and GPM-3IMERGMv6 (March, September, and December). The SPI and the use of precipitation data estimated by remote sensing are effective for characterizing and monitoring meteorological drought in the study region.

National-Scale Variation and Propagation Characteristics of Meteorological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Droughts in China

The regional and national scales variation and propagation characteristics of different types of droughts are critical for improving drought resilience, while information is limited in China. The objective of this research was to investigate the evolution and propagation characteristics of three types of droughts using standardized indices at multi-timescales in different sub-regions of China. The indices included Standardized Precipitation/Soil Moisture/Runoff Index (SPI/SSI/SRI) using the optimal probability density function, representing meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts based on precipitation, soil water storage, and baseflow-groundwater runoff, respectively. Wavelet analysis was used to reveal their periodical characteristics. Modified Mann-Kendall trend test was used to compare the trend among drought indices. Correlation coefficients between SPI and SSI/SRI were calculated to identify the time-lags of SPI with SSI and SRI. In general, droughts indicated by SPI agreed well with the historical drought events at different sub-regions. The main periods of SSI were closer to SPI than SRI, indicating stronger connections of agricultural drought with meteorological drought. A weaker connection between meteorological and agricultural/hydrological droughts at shorter timescales was observed in northwestern arid and semi-arid regions. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural or hydrological droughts were well denoted by the lagged time (months) from SPI to SSI or SRI at a timescale ranged from 0 (mostly located in south China) to 5 months (mostly located in northeastern China) for 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, or 24-month timescale; this was a new finding for China. The methods of wavelet combining trend test and Pearson coefficient showed meaningful power for revealing the drought propagation characteristics and the obtained results can be a good reference for other regions of the world since this study compared different climate zones from arid to humid conditions. The study provides crucial information and guidance to develop drought management strategies at regional to national scale and their critical time of action.

Preliminary Utility of the Retrospective IMERG Precipitation Product for Large-Scale Drought Monitoring over Mainland China

This study evaluated the suitability of the latest retrospective Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement V06 (IMERG) Final Run product with a relatively long period (beginning from June 2000) for drought monitoring over mainland China. First, the accuracy of IMERG was evaluated by using observed precipitation data from 807 meteorological stations at multiple temporal (daily, monthly, and yearly) and spatial (pointed and regional) scales. Second, the IMERG-based standardized precipitation index (SPI) was validated and analyzed through statistical indicators. Third, a light–extreme–light drought-event process was adopted as the case study to dissect the latent performance of IMERG-based SPI in capturing the spatiotemporal variation of drought events. Our results demonstrated a sufficient consistency and small error of the IMERG precipitation data against the gauge observations with the regional mean correlation coefficient (CC) at the daily (0.7), monthly (0.93), and annual (0.86) scales for mainland China. The IMERG possessed a strong capacity for estimating intra-annual precipitation changes; especially, it performed well at the monthly scale. There was a strong agreement between the IMERG-based SPI values and gauge-based SPI values for drought monitoring in most regions in China (with CCs above 0.8). In contrast, there was a comparatively poorer capability and notably higher heterogeneity in the Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regions with more widely varying statistical metrics. The IMERG featured the advantage of satisfactory spatiotemporal accuracy in terms of depicting the onset and extinction of representative drought disasters for specific consecutive months. Furthermore, the IMERG has obvious drought monitoring abilities, which was also complemented when compared with the Precipitation Estimation from the Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42V7. The outcomes of this study demonstrate that the retrospective IMERG can provide a more competent data source and potential opportunity for better drought monitoring utility across mainland China, particularly for eastern China.

Divergent Sensitivities of Spaceborne Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence to Drought among Different Seasons and Regions

As a newly emerging satellite form of data, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) provides a direct measurement of photosynthetic activity. The potential of SIF for drought assessment in different grassland ecosystems is not yet clear. In this study, the correlations between spaceborne SIF and nine drought indices were evaluated. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 month scale, Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), soil moisture, temperature condition index (TCI), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were evaluated. The relationships between different grassland types and different seasons were compared, and the driving forces affecting the sensitivity of SIF to drought were explored. We found that the correlations between SIF and drought indices were different for temperate grasslands and alpine grasslands. The correlation coefficients between SIF and soil moisture were the highest (the mean value was 0.72 for temperate grasslands and 0.69 for alpine grasslands), followed by SPEI and PDSI at a three month scale, and the correlation coefficient between SIF and TCI was the lowest (the mean value was 0.38 for both temperate and alpine grasslands). Spaceborne SIF is more effective for drought monitoring during the peak period of the growing season (July and August). Temperature and radiation are important factors affecting the sensitivity of SIF to drought. The results from this study demonstrated the importance of SIF in drought monitoring especially for temperate grasslands in the peak growing season.

Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation over Iran Using the High-Resolution and Nearly Four Decades Satellite-Based PERSIANN-CDR Dataset

Spatiotemporal precipitation trend analysis provides valuable information for water management decision-making. Satellite-based precipitation products with high spatial and temporal resolution and long records, as opposed to temporally and spatially sparse rain gauge networks, are a suitable alternative to analyze precipitation trends over Iran. This study analyzes the trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation along with the contribution of each season and month in the annual precipitation over Iran for the 1983–2018 period. For the analyses, the Mann–Kendall test is applied to the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) estimates. The results of annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation trends indicate that the significant decreases in the monthly precipitation trends in February over the western (March over the western and central-eastern) regions of Iran cause significant effects on winter (spring) and total annual precipitation. Moreover, the increases in the amounts of precipitation during November in the south and south-east regions lead to a remarkable increase in the amount of precipitation during the fall season. The analysis of the contribution of each season and month to annual precipitation in wet and dry years shows that dry years have critical impacts on decreasing monthly precipitation over a particular region. For instance, a remarkable decrease in precipitation amounts is detectable during dry years over the eastern, northeastern, and southwestern regions of Iran during March, April, and December, respectively. The results of this study show that PERSIANN-CDR is a valuable source of information in low-density gauge network areas, capturing spatiotemporal variation of precipitation.

Severe drought events inducing large decrease of net primary productivity in mainland China during 1982-2015

The analysis of the impact of drought events on terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) is significant to understand the effects of droughts on regional/global carbon cycling. During the past three decades, terrestrial ecosystems in mainland China have been frequently impacted by drought events. However, quantitative analyses of the variation of NPP induced by droughts are still not enough. Therefore, this study explored the response of NPP to drought events from 1982 to 2015 based on the standardized evapotranspiration deficit index (SEDI) and an NPP dataset obtained from the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model. We first identified drought events and analyzed the characteristics of drought events using a three-dimensional clustering algorithm. Subsequently, we determined the NPP variations in the drought-affected areas during the droughts and explored the correlation between the NPP variation and the drought characteristics. The results showed that 152 persistent drought events lasting at least 3 months were identified. Most events had durations between 3 and 5 months, and 19 events lasted >9 months. A negative NPP was detected in >60% of the drought-affected areas during long-term (>6 months) and severe (>4 × 10⁶ km² month) drought events and the total NPP showed a clear decrease during these events. In general, strong drought events reduced the total NPP by >30 TgC in the Northern Region, South Region, Southwest Region, and Northeast Region. The substantial decrease was mainly caused by the NPP anomaly from April to September. The NPP responses to drought events exhibited differences due to different drought characteristics. Although a high proportion of the drought-affected areas experienced a decrease in NPP during most short-term (<5 months) and less severe droughts (<2 × 10⁶ km² month), the total NPP did not exhibit a large change during these events.

Applicability of long-term satellite-based precipitation products for drought indices considering global warming

This study evaluates the applicability of using long-term satellite rainfall estimate (SRE) precipitation products in drought monitoring over mainland China under global warming conditions. Two widely used drought indices, the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), were selected as study cases; both indices consider global warming but based on different mechanisms. Two popular long-term SREs were selected to calculate the indices: the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using the Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS). A ground-based gridded observation dataset known as the China monthly Precipitation Analysis Product (CPAP) was used as a reference for the evaluation. Research results showed that on a grid cell scale, the SPEI based on both SREs was consistent with observations in eastern China (correlation coefficient over 0.9), while the scPDSI was much less accurate (correlation coefficient of only 0.5) and its accuracy patterns were highly spatially heterogeneous. However, on a regional scale, after spatial errors were offset by spatial averaging, the performance of the SRE-based scPDSI improved, and it showed the same ability as the SPEI in temporally detecting the timing, intensity, and magnitude of drought. The self-calibrating procedure of the scPDSI was determined as the most probable cause of its poorer performance and high heterogeneity, which would increase instability and enlarge the uncertainty of the SREs. It is thus considered that the SPEI should be the first choice for use in monitoring global-warming related drought, primarily because of the high uncertainty and instability of the scPDSI.

Evaluation of PERSIANN-CDR Constructed Using GPCP V2.2 and V2.3 and A Comparison with TRMM 3B42 V7 and CPC Unified Gauge-Based Analysis in Global Scale

Providing reliable long-term global precipitation records at high spatial and temporal resolutions is crucial for climatological studies. Satellite-based precipitation estimations are a promising alternative to rain gauges for providing homogeneous precipitation information. Most satellite-based precipitation products suffer from short-term data records, which make them unsuitable for various climatological and hydrological applications. However, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) provides more than 35 years of precipitation records at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial and daily temporal resolutions. The PERSIANN-CDR algorithm uses monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, which has been recently updated to version 2.3, for reducing the biases in the output of the PERSIANN model. In this study, we constructed PERSIANN-CDR using the newest version of GPCP (V2.3). We compared the PERSIANN-CDR dataset that is constructed using GPCP V2.3 (from here on referred to as PERSIANN-CDR V2.3) with the PERSIANN-CDR constructed using GPCP V2.2 (from here on PERSIANN-CDR V2.2), at monthly and daily scales for the period from 2009 to 2013. First, we discuss the changes between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over the land and ocean. Second, we evaluate the improvements in PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 with respect to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) unified gauge-based analysis, a gauged-based reference, and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7), a commonly used satellite reference, at monthly and daily scales. The results show noticeable differences between PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 and V2.2 over oceans between 40° and 60° latitude in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Monthly and daily scale comparisons of the two bias-adjusted versions of PERSIANN-CDR with the above-mentioned references emphasize that PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 has improved mostly over the global land area, especially over the CONUS and Australia. The updated PERSIANN-CDR V2.3 data has replaced V2.2 data for the 2009–2013 period on CHRS data portal and NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Program.

Evaluating the Drought-Monitoring Utility of Four Satellite-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Products at Global Scale

This study simultaneously analyzed and evaluated the meteorological drought-monitoring utility of the following four satellite-based, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43V7 (TRMM-3B43), the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique gauge-satellite blended product (CMORPH-BLD), and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Data from 2000 to 2016 was used at global scale. The global Climate Research Unit (CRU) Version 4.02 was used as reference data to assess QPE products. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index was chosen as an example to evaluate the drought utility of four QPE products. The results indicate that CHIRPS has the best performance in Europe, Oceania, and Africa; the PERSIANN-CDR has the best performance in North America, South America, and Asia; the CMORPH-BLD has the worst statistical indices in all continents. Although four QPE products showed satisfactory performance for most of the world according to SPEI statistics, poor drought monitoring ability occurred in Southeast Asia, Central Africa, the Tibetan plateau, the Himalayas, and Amazonia. The PERSIANN-CDR achieves the best performance of the four QPE products in most regions except for Africa; CHIRPS and TRMM-3B43 have comparable performances. According to the spatial probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) of the SPEI, more than 50% of all drought events cannot be accurately identified by QPE products in regions with sparse gauge distribution. In other regions, such as the southeastern USA, southeastern China, and South Africa, QPE products capture more than 75% of drought events. Temporally, all datasets (except for CMORPH-BLD) can detect all typical drought events, namely, in the southeastern US in 2007, western Europe in 2003, Kenya in 2006, and Central Asia in 2008. The study concludes that CHIRPS and TRMM-3B43 can be used as near-real-time drought monitoring techniques whereas PERSIANN-CDR might be more suitable for long-term historical drought analysis.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Variability Using CWSI in the Koshi River Basin (KRB)

Drought is one of the most frequent meteorological disasters, and has exerted significant impacts on the livelihoods and economy of the Koshi River Basin (KRB). In this study, we assessed drought patterns using the Crop Water Shortage Index (CWSI) based on the MOD16 product for the period between 2000 and 2014. The results revealed that the CWSI based on the MOD16 product can be act as an indicator to monitor the characteristics of the drought. Significant spatial heterogeneity of drought was observed in the basin, with higher CWSI values downstream and upstream than in the midstream. The midstream of the KRB was dominated by light drought, moderate drought occurred in the upstream, and the downstream was characterized by severe drought. The monthly CWSI during one year in KRB showed the higher CWSI between March to May (pre-monsoon) and October to December (post-monsoon) rather than June to September (monsoon), and the highest was observed in the month of April, suggesting that precipitation plays the most important role in the mitigation of CWSI. Additionally, the downstream and midstream showed a higher variation of drought compared to the upstream in the basin. This research indicates that the downstream suffered severe drought due to seasonal water shortages, especially during the pre-monsoon, and water-related infrastructure should be implemented to mitigate losses caused by drought.

The Role of Satellite-Based Remote Sensing in Improving Simulated Streamflow: A Review

A hydrological model is a useful tool to study the effects of human activities and climate change on hydrology. Accordingly, the performance of hydrological modeling is vitally significant for hydrologic predictions. In watersheds with intense human activities, there are difficulties and uncertainties in model calibration and simulation. Alternative approaches, such as machine learning techniques and coupled models, can be used for streamflow predictions. However, these models also suffer from their respective limitations, especially when data are unavailable. Satellite-based remote sensing may provide a valuable contribution for hydrological predictions due to its wide coverage and increasing tempo-spatial resolutions. In this review, we provide an overview of the role of satellite-based remote sensing in streamflow simulation. First, difficulties in hydrological modeling over highly regulated basins are further discussed. Next, the performance of satellite-based remote sensing (e.g., remotely sensed data for precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snow properties, terrestrial water storage change, land surface temperature, river width, etc.) in improving simulated streamflow is summarized. Then, the application of data assimilation for merging satellite-based remote sensing with a hydrological model is explored. Finally, a framework, using remotely sensed observations to improve streamflow predictions in highly regulated basins, is proposed for future studies. This review can be helpful to understand the effect of applying satellite-based remote sensing on hydrological modeling.

Assessing land surface drying and wetting trends with a normalized soil water index on the Loess Plateau in 2001-2016

Long-term drought may cause severe damage to ecosystems. To assess drought intensity, we introduced a normalized soil water index (NSWI) of land surface, on the basis of rainfall and actual evapotranspiration. Areas undergoing land surface drying on the Loess Plateau in 2001-2016 were assessed on the basis of the values of NSWI combined with rainfall and land surface water storage (LSWS). The extent of soil drying and wetting at depths of 0-0.01 m, 0-0.1 m and 0-2 m was also quantified. Results showed that up to 7.16% of the Loess Plateau was subjected to decreasing LSWS. On an inter-annual time scale, land surface drying intensified starting in 2003, and this pattern was chiefly evident at the soil depth of 2 m. The approach proposed in this study could also be used to identify temporary dry soil layers (DSLs) in arid ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Actual Evapotranspiration and the Dominant Climatic Factors in the Pearl River Basin, China

Evapotranspiration is a vital component of the land surface process, thus, a more accurate estimate of evapotranspiration is of great significance to agricultural production, research on climate change, and other activities. In order to explore the spatiotemporal variation of evapotranspiration under global climate change in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), in China, this study conducted a simulation of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) during 1960–2014 based on the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with a high spatial resolution of 0.05°. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) test and partial correlation analysis were used to examine the trends of ETa. The dominant climatic factors impacting on ETa were also examined. The results reveal that the annual ETa across the whole basin exhibited a slight but not significant increasing trend during the 1960–2014 period, whereas a significant decreasing trend was found during the 1960–1992 period. At the seasonal scale, the ETa showed a significant upward trend in summer and a significant downward trend in autumn. At the spatial scale, the ETa generally showed a decreasing, but not significant, trend in the middle and upper stream of the PRB, while in the downstream areas, especially in the Pearl River Delta and Dongjiang River Basin, it exhibited a significant increasing trend. The variation of the ETa was mainly associated with sunshine hours and average air pressure. The negative trend of the ETa in the PRB before 1992 may be due to the significant decrease in sunshine hours, while the increasing trend of the ETa after 1992 may be due to the recovery of sunshine hours and the significant decrease of air pressure. Additionally, we found that the “paradox” phenomenon detected by ETa mainly existed in the middle-upper area of the PRB during the period of 1960–1992.

An Agricultural Drought Index for Assessing Droughts Using a Water Balance Method: A Case Study in Jilin Province, Northeast China

Drought, which causes the economic, social, and environmental losses, also threatens food security worldwide. In this study, we developed a vegetation-soil water deficit (VSWD) method to better assess agricultural droughts. The VSWD method considers precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and soil moisture. The soil moisture from different soil layers was compared with the in situ drought indices to select the appropriate depths for calculating soil moisture during growing seasons. The VSWD method and other indices for assessing the agricultural droughts, i.e., Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI), Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI), were compared with the in situ and multi-scales of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEIs). The results show that the VSWD method has better performance than SDCI, VHI, and TVDI. Based on the drought events collected from field sampling, it is found that the VSWD method can better distinguish the severities of agricultural droughts than other indices mentioned here. Moreover, the performances of VSWD, SPEIs, SDCI and VHI in the major historical drought events recorded in the study area show that VSWD has generated the most sensible results than others. However, the limitation of the VSWD method is also discussed.

Drought Evaluation with CMORPH Satellite Precipitation Data in the Yellow River Basin by Using Gridded Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

The traditional station-based drought index is vulnerable because of the inadequate spatial distribution of the station, and also, it does not fully reflect large-scale, dynamic drought information. Thus, large-scale drought monitoring has been widely implemented by using remote sensing precipitation products. Compared with station data, remote sensing precipitation products have the advantages of wide coverage and dynamic, continuous data, which can effectively compensate for the deficiency in the spatial distribution of the ground stations and provide a new data source for the calculation of a drought index. In this study, the Gridded Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (GSPEI) was proposed based on a remote sensing dataset produced by the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), in order to evaluate the gridded drought characteristics in the Yellow River basin (YRB) from 1998 to 2016. The optimal Ordinary Kriging interpolation method was selected to interpolate meteorological station data to the same spatial resolution as CMORPH data (8 km), in order to compare the ground-based meteorological parameters to remote sensing-based data. Additionally, the gridded drought trends were identified based on the Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) trend test method. The results indicated that: (1) the GSPEI was suitable for drought evaluation in the YRB using CMORPH precipitation data, which were consistent with ground-based meteorological data; (2) the positive correlation between GSPEI and SPEI was high, and all the correlation coefficients (CCs) passed the significance test of α = 0.05, which indicated that the GSPEI could better reflect the gridded drought characteristics of the YRB; (3) the drought severity in each season of the YRB was highest in summer, followed by spring, autumn, and winter, with an average GSPEI of −1.51, −0.09, 0.30, and 1.33, respectively; and (4) the drought showed an increasing trend on the monthly scale in March, May, August, and October, and a decreasing trend on the seasonal and annual scale.