The impact of socio-economic development and climate change on E. coli loads and concentrations in Kabul River, Pakistan

Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and socio-economic development on waterborne pathogen transport

Protection of our water resources is essential to provide future generations with safe drinking water, recreational opportunities, and reliable ecosystem services. Climate and land use changes exert pressure on the quality of our water resources. Additionally, societal development may generate both positive and negative impacts on future water quality. Thus, decisions made today will impact the water quality of tomorrow. In this paper, we address the issue of future microbial water quality by combining Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socio-economic Pathways with projections of societal development, either downscaled to a local level or assessed by local organisations. We use Lake Vomb in Sweden (providing approximately 330 000 persons with drinking water) to illustrate our novel approach of assessing the impact of climate change and societal development on future microbial water quality. The approach includes norovirus, Escherichia coli (as an indicator organism), and Cryptosporidium. Further, we combine hydrological and hydrodynamic fate and transport modelling to simulate future water quality in the tributaries and at the drinking water intake. Future simulations are compared to a baseline scenario representing the current situation. Results show that climate change will reduce future water quality. However, we can also see that societal development significantly impacts microbial water quality, potentially counteracting the increases in microbial concentrations induced by climate change. Therefore, drinking water supply management must adapt to both future climate and societal development.

Changing climate and socio-economic conditions as part of quantitative microbial risk assessment of surface drinking water sources: a review

Climate and socio-economic changes are expected to significantly impact waterborne pathogens and associated health risks, yet the full extent of these effects remains unclear. Accurate quantification of these risks is crucial for informing effective interventions and policy decisions. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) serves as a valuable tool for estimating the risk of infection caused by microorganisms in drinking water. This study reviews existing QMRA studies and tools in the context of surface water and drinking water provision. Most studies have implemented various steps of the QMRA framework but often without the application of specific QMRA tools. Although several QMRA tools address climatic factors, there are currently no tools that integrate socio-economic factors into their risk assessments. This study proposes an approach for incorporating both climatic and socio-economic factors into QMRA tools. Specifically, we suggest enhancements to the Swedish QMRA tool - an open-source tool that currently does not incorporate climate and socio-economic changes. Our proposed advancements aim to systematically account for future climatic and socio-economic impacts on health risks, providing a more comprehensive microbial risk assessment tool. These recommendations are also applicable to other QMRA tools, offering a pathway for their development and improving the overall assessment of microbial health risks.

Extreme rainfall disproportionately impacts E. coli concentrations in Texas recreational waterbodies

Waterborne pathogen contamination poses a significant threat to water resources globally and the exposure to waterborne pathogen contamination is widely recognized as unevenly distributed. Extreme weather events could exacerbate inequalities in waterborne disease as climate variability continues to escalate. However, there is a limited understanding of how extreme rainfall affects E. coli levels and whether disadvantaged communities experience disproportionate impacts from extreme rainfall on E. coli contamination. Leveraging 21 years of E. coli data along with climate data and watershed characteristics, this study employed Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models to quantify the seasonal and spatial impacts of extreme rainfall on E. coli concentrations in Texas. Our results indicate that during dry seasons, regions in northern and eastern Texas exhibit significantly higher impacts of extreme rainfall on E. coli concentrations, which is associated with high proportions of pastures, wetlands, and silt. However, during wet seasons, western and southern regions experience slightly higher extreme rainfall induced E. coli contamination risks likely due to significantly increased runoff from the rainfall together with higher slopes and clay-rich soil. In addition, we found census tracts with higher proportions of Black and Latino populations experience greater extreme rainfall impacts on E. coli levels in different months. Furthermore, an analysis of historical trends in extreme rainfall intensity indicates that climate variability could further amplify the existing inequalities in exposure to E. coli contamination. Our findings highlight the disproportionate impacts of extreme rainfall induced E. coli contamination on disadvantaged communities and emphasize the critical need for targeted intervention strategies to mitigate these risks effectively and equitably in Texas.

Modeling the fate and transport of E. coli pathogens in the Tano River Basin of Ghana under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios

Surface water contamination by fecal matter threatens human health due to human and biological processes within a watershed, making socioeconomic development crucial for predicting and improving microbiological water quality. Consequently, climate change alters climatic parameters that affect flow regimes and the movement and fate of microorganisms. This study assessed the fate and transport of microbial Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentrations and their sources in the Tano River Basin in Ghana. Additionally, the study predicted future E. coli concentrations using climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s most recent representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Scenario_1 featured planned urbanization, enhanced manure and wastewater treatment, moderate population, livestock density growth, and climate change. Scenario_2 involved higher population growth, minimal improvements in wastewater management, zero manure treatment, higher livestock population, urbanization, and substantial climate change. Calibration and validation using E. coli data from June 2022 to April 2023 showed good agreement with observed concentrations (R2, 0.75 and 0.89; NSE, 0.69 and 0.68; PBIAS, 3.4 and 1.9, respectively). The measured and modeled E. coli concentrations were high, with the highest recording at 2.39 log cfu/100 ml during the rainy season. The study finds that the main causes of E. coli concentrations (44%) are point sources, primarily from human feces and livestock manure, followed by upstream pollution (34%) and non-point sources (22%). Non-point sources became the predominant contributors during periods of maximum discharge due to runoff from land and the dilution of point sources. Again Scenario_1 E. coli dropped to 68% and 97% of reference point levels by the 2050s and 2100s, respectively. E. coli concentrations decrease even more with subsequent treatment, such as tertiary treatment, manure treatment, or both. The scenario analysis demonstrates the potential for E. coli reduction through wastewater and manure treatment, driven by socioeconomic and climate change scenarios.

Modeling the fecal contamination (fecal coliform bacteria) in transboundary waters using the scenario matrix approach: a case study of Sutlej River, Pakistan

Surface water quality is among the significant challenges in the Sutlej River basin, passing through Pakistan's most densely populated province. Currently, the overall surface water quality is grossly polluted, mainly due to the direct discharge of wastewater from the urban areas to the Sutlej River directly or through stream networks. Escherichia coli concentrations vary under extreme weather events like floods and droughts and socioeconomic circumstances like urbanization, population growth, and treatment options. This paper assesses the future E. coli load and concentrations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) along with scenarios based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). E. coli concentrations according to a more polluted scenario disclose a near and mid future increase by 108% and 173%, and far future increases up to 251% compared to the reference period (baseline) concentrations. The E. coli concentration is reduced by - 54%, - 68%, and - 81% for all the projected time steps compared to the baseline concentrations. While highly improved sewerage and manure management options are adapted, the concentration is further reduced by - 96%, - 101%, and - 105%, respectively, compared to the baseline. Our modeling and scenario matrix study shows that reducing microbiological concentrations in the surface water is possible. Still, it requires rigorous sanitation and treatment options, and socioeconomic variables play an essential role besides climate change to determine the microbiological concentration of water resources and be included in future studies whenever water quality and health risks are considered.

Integrated assessment of localized SSP-RCP narratives for climate change adaptation in coupled human-water systems

The assessment of climate change impacts requires downscaled climate projections and context-specific socioeconomic scenarios. The development of practical climate change adaptation for environmental sustainability at regional and local scales is predicated on a strong understanding of future socio-economic dynamics under a range of potential climate projections. We have addressed this need using integrated assessment of a localized hybrid Shared Socio-economic Pathway - Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) framework, through an interdisciplinary and participatory storyline development process that integrates bottom-up local expert-stakeholder knowledge with top-down insights from global SSPs. We use the global SSPs (SSP1 to SSP5) as boundary conditions in conjunction with climate change pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to create localized SSP narratives in an iterative participatory process, using a storytelling method. By using an integrated socio-economic and environmental system dynamics model developed in collaboration with local stakeholders, we explore the potential impacts of plausible local SSP-RCP narratives and quantify important socio-environmental vulnerabilities of a human-water system (e.g., crop yields, farm income, water security and groundwater depletion) by the mid-century period (i.e., by 2050). The framework is developed to inform climate adaptation for Pakistan's Rechna Doab region, which serves as a representative case of a multi-stakeholder coupled human-water system operating in a developing country. Our results suggest that even under limited socio-economic improvements (e.g., technology, policies, institutions, environmental awareness) water security would be expected to decline and environmental degradation (e.g., groundwater depletion) to worsen. Under RCP 4.5, the average projected increase in water demand in 2030 will be about 7.32% for all SSP scenario narratives, and 10.82% by mid-century. Groundwater use varies significantly across SSPs which results in an average increase of about 29.06% for all SSPs. The proposed framework facilitates the development of future adaptation policies that should consider regional and local planning as well as socio-economic conditions.

Modelling the interplay of future changes and wastewater management measures on the microbiological river water quality considering safe drinking water production

Rivers are important for drinking water supply worldwide. However, they are often impacted by pathogen discharges via wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and combined sewer overflows (CSO). To date, accurate predictions of the effects of future changes and pollution control measures on the microbiological water quality of rivers considering safe drinking water production are hindered due to the uncertainty of the pathogen source and transport variables. The aim of this study was to test an integrative approach for an improved understanding of these effects, i.e. climate change and population growth as well as enhanced treatment at WWTPs and/or prevention of CSOs. We applied a significantly extended version of QMRAcatch (v1.0 Python), a probabilistic-deterministic model that combines fate and transport modelling with quantitative microbial infection risk assessment. The impact of climatic changes until the period 2035-2049 was investigated by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological model, based on regional climate model outputs. QMRAcatch was calibrated and validated using site- and source-specific data (human-associated genetic microbial source tracking marker and enterovirus). The study showed that the degree to which future changes affect drinking water safety strongly depends on the type and magnitude of faecal pollution sources and are thus highly site- and scenario-specific. For example, if the load of pathogens from WWTPs is reduced through enhanced treatment, climate-change driven increases in CSOs had a considerable impact. Preventing CSOs and installing enhanced treatment at the WWTPs together had the most significant positive effect. The simultaneous consideration of source apportionment and concentrations of reference pathogens, focusing on human-specific viruses (enterovirus, norovirus) and cross-comparison with bacterial and protozoan pathogens (Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium), was found crucial to quantify these effects. While demonstrated here for a large, wastewater-impacted river, the approach is applicable at other catchments and pollution sources. It allows assessing future changes and selecting suitable pollution control measures for long-term water safety planning.

Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia duodenalis emissions from humans and animals in the Three Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing, China

Cryptosporidium spp. and Giardia duodenalis are two waterborne protozoan parasites that can cause diarrhea. Human and animal feces in surface water are a major source of these pathogens. This paper presents a GloWPa-TGR-Crypto model that estimates Cryptosporidium and G. duodenalis emissions from human and animal feces in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), and uses scenario analysis to predict the effects of sanitation, urbanization, and population growth on oocyst and cyst emissions for 2050. Our model estimated annual emissions of 1.6 × 10¹⁵ oocysts and 2.1 × 10¹⁵ cysts from human and animal feces, respectively. Humans were the largest contributors of oocysts and cysts, followed by pigs and poultry. Cities were hot-spots for human emissions, while districts with high livestock populations accounted for the highest animal emissions. Our model was the most sensitive to oocyst excretion rates. The results indicated that 74% and 87% of total emissions came from urban areas and humans, respectively, and 86% of total human emissions were produced by the urban population. The scenario analysis showed a potential decrease in oocyst and cyst emissions with improvements in urbanization, sanitation, wastewater treatment, and manure management, regardless of population increase. Our model can further contribute to the understanding of environmental pathways, the risk assessment of Cryptosporidium and Giardia pollution, and effective prevention and control strategies that can reduce the outbreak of waterborne diseases in the TGR and other similar watersheds.

Modeling the Effects of Future Hydroclimatic Conditions on Microbial Water Quality and Management Practices in Two Agricultural Watersheds

Anticipated future hydroclimatic changes are expected to alter the transport and survival of fecally-sourced waterborne pathogens, presenting an increased risk of recreational water quality impairments. Managing future risk requires an understanding of interactions between fecal sources, hydroclimatic conditions and best management practices (BMPs) at spatial scales relevant to decision makers. In this study we used the Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN to quantify potential fecal coliform (FC - an indicator of the potential presence of pathogens) responses to a range of mid-century climate scenarios and assess different BMP scenarios (based on reduction factors) for reducing the risk of water quality impairment in two, small agricultural watersheds - the Chippewa watershed in Minnesota, and the Tye watershed in Virginia. In each watershed, simulations show a wide range of FC responses, driven largely by variability in projected future precipitation. Wetter future conditions, which drive more transport from non-point sources (e.g. manure application, livestock grazing), show increases in FC loads. Loads typically decrease under drier futures; however, higher mean FC concentrations and more recreational water quality criteria exceedances occur, likely caused by reduced flow during low-flow periods. Median changes across the ensemble generally show increases in FC load. BMPs that focus on key fecal sources (e.g., runoff from pasture, livestock defecation in streams) within a watershed can mitigate the effects of hydroclimatic change on FC loads. However, more extensive BMP implementation or improved BMP efficiency (i.e., higher FC reductions) may be needed to fully offset increases in FC load and meet water quality goals, such as total maximum daily loads and recreational water quality standards. Strategies for managing climate risk should be flexible and to the extent possible include resilient BMPs that function as designed under a range of future conditions.

Brain diseases in changing climate

Climate change is one of the biggest and most urgent challenges for the 21st century. Rising average temperatures and ocean levels, altered precipitation patterns and increased occurrence of extreme weather events affect not only the global landscape and ecosystem, but also human health. Multiple environmental factors influence the onset and severity of human diseases and changing climate may have a great impact on these factors. Climate shifts disrupt the quantity and quality of water, increase environmental pollution, change the distribution of pathogens and severely impacts food production - all of which are important regarding public health. This paper focuses on brain health and provides an overview of climate change impacts on risk factors specific to brain diseases and disorders. We also discuss emerging hazards in brain health due to mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate changes.