Spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of ecosystem service supply and demand across the conterminous United States: A multiscale analysis

Small watersheds are the best control and management unit for improving soil conservation services in karst areas

Climate factors and changes in landscape patterns are often recognized as the primary drivers of soil conservation services. The influence mechanism of climate factors and landscape patterns on soil conservation service is scale-dependent and spatial heterogeneous. However, it is not clear whether small watershed scale is more conducive to soil erosion control than large scale such as county scale and township scale. For the purpose of creating land use development plans that take local conditions into account, it is crucial to clarify the effects of climate and landscape pattern factors on soil conservation change. Wujiang River basin (WRB), a typical karst basin located in the catchment of the largest first-level tributary on the upper Yangtze River in China, was used as the study area in this research. Soil conservation services provided by water erosion control (SPC) in WRB from 2005 to 2020 were evaluated using the RUSLE model based on the modified rock exposure rate. By using stepwise regression model and multi-scale geographically weighted regression model (MGWR), the spatial heterogeneity of the influence of different driving factors on soil conservation service was comprehensively studied at the scale of district, township and small watershed. The results show that the SPC fluctuates obviously, but the trend is not significant. Climate factor is the dominant factor affecting SPC. With the change of scale from large to small, the adjusted R2 of the regression model gradually increases, especially the factors related to landscape pattern, and more driving factors can be revealed more comprehensively and effectively. Therefore, the small watershed scale is the best control unit to improve the SPC when formulating the regional management landscape plan. The findings of this research also have benchmark significance for other ecological fragile areas, and can provide more comprehensive suggestions for local ecosystem management and landscape planning.

Ecological compensation based on multiscale ecosystem carbon sequestration service flow

Scientific assessments of the supply, demand and flow of ecosystem services and the formulation of ecological compensation policies are important for the promotion of sustainable regional development. Based on the supply-demand ratio model, breakpoint model, field strength model, geographic information system spatial analysis and statistical methods, we assessed the supply, demand and supply-demand relationships of carbon sequestration services on the Loess Plateau for 2000, 2010 and 2020. We also analyzed the interregional flow of carbon sequestration services at multiple scales and accounted for horizontal ecological compensation. The results revealed that from 2000 to 2020, both the supply and demand of carbon sequestration services increased, with a greater increase in demand. The high-supply areas were mostly in the central and northwestern parts of the Loess Plateau, and the high-demand areas were mostly in areas other than the central part. The supply-demand ratio for carbon sequestration services declined, with a large increase in the number of deficit counties and surplus counties, mostly in the central and western parts of the study area. The flow rates of carbon sequestration services within the Loess Plateau increased. The intercounty flow rates within the same city were the highest but decreased. Decreasing intercity flow rates appeared within the same province although they initially increased. Finally, interprovincial flow rates were the lowest, but they were increasing. The outflow of carbon sequestration services from the Loess Plateau to external regions was greater than the inflow from external regions, but the outflow decreased in 2020 compared with 2010, while the inflow from external regions increased. Most cities actually received or paid less ecological compensation than that accounted for based on the basis of flow rates after considering willingness to pay and ability to pay. Moreover, the number and total compensation of cities receiving ecological compensation were greater than the number and total compensation of payers in the 44 cities within the Loess Plateau. This study provides a theoretical basis for not only understanding the spatial transfer patterns of ecosystem services at multiple scales but also formulating ecological compensation policies, thereby promoting the realization of regional sustainable development.

Evaluating the influence of human disturbance on the ecosystem service scarcity value: an insightful exploration in Guangxi region

Investigating how human disturbance affects the ecosystem service scarcity value (ESSV) is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability and achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study separately assessed ESSV and human disturbance in Guangxi from 1990 to 2020, revealing their spatiotemporal distribution differences over time. The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is used to analyze the interrelationship between the two, with the purpose of filling the gap in current research. The main results are as follows: (1) From 1990 to 2020, ESSV in Guangxi increased significantly and reached its highest value in 2020. Under the four scenarios, ESSV increased significantly in Scenarios 2 and 4. Spatially, high ESSV was mainly distributed in some cities in central, southern, western and northeastern Guangxi. (2) The index of human disturbance in Guangxi continued to increase during the study period, with a high level of human disturbance in the central urban area and a low level of human disturbance in the peripheral areas, which were distributed in a radial pattern. (3) According to the EKC, the relationship between ESSV and human disturbance in Guangxi followed an inverted N-shaped curve. In addition, after 2010, the coupling and coordination level was dominated by "slightly balanced development", and the area of "ESSV significantly lagged" gradually increased. This study provides a new perspective for understanding ESSV and its relationship with human disturbances, and provides an important reference for the sustainable management of ecosystems and the formulation of ecological conservation policies.

The shift in the spatiotemporal relationship between supply and demand of ecosystem services and its drivers in China

In China, over 65% of human activities are concentrated in cities, resulting in a conflict between the supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs). To alleviate this problem, many cities have adopted eco-friendly development modes, however, the effectiveness of these models in reducing ESs supply-demand conflicts has not been comprehensively reviewed, and the human and natural drivers behind these relationship shifts remain unclear. To bridge this gap, this study analyzed the shifts in the relationships between supply and demand of ESs across China from 2010 to 2020 at a city level, as well as identified the human and natural drivers behind them. Firstly, the InVEST models were integrated with socioeconomic data to evaluate the supply and demand distribution for three pivotal ESs: water yield (WY), habitat quality (HQ), and soil retention (SR). Then, a four-quadrant diagram approach was proposed to enhance the analysis of their spatiotemporal relationships. Furthermore, random forest models were employed to examine the drivers of the shifts in these relationships. The results showed that WY and SR services witnessed growth until 2015, and then receded, while HQ saw a modest decline from 2010 to 2020. Spatial synergies in the supply and demand of ESs were primarily observed in the southern cities, with a significant northward extension by 2020. From a temporal perspective, the percentage of cities achieving coordination in WY and SR services increased from 32.6% to 57.3%, respectively, in the 2010-2015 period to 42.4% and 63.3% between 2015 and 2020, meanwhile, HQ service conflicts diminished from 58.7% to 53.5%. The changes in socioeconomic and land use factors contributed to 64.3%, 36.1%, and 33.3% of the shifts in the supply-demand relationship for HQ, WY, and SR services, respectively. Our analysis highlights the potential of human-driven ecological management to enhance the balance of this relationship. It can support the design of city-specific policies that foster a balance between ecological processes and socio-economic development.

Assessment of supply-demand relationships considering the interregional flow of ecosystem services

Accurate assessment of ecosystem service (ES) supply, demand, and flow is essential for identifying and enhancing the ES supply-demand relationship and promoting regional sustainable development. Based on the InVEST model, supply-demand ratio, coupling coordination analysis, breakpoint and field strength model, and GIS spatial analysis method, we evaluated the supply and demand of water yield, food supply, carbon storage, and soil conservation service in the Loess Plateau in 2000 and 2020 and analyzed the supply-demand relationship before and after considering the interregional ecosystem service flow (ESF). The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the supply and demand of the four types of ESs in the Loess Plateau increased. Before considering ESF, the surplus degree in water yield, food supply, and soil conservation increased, and carbon storage decreased. In most counties, the coupling coordination between the supply and demand of the soil conservation is mostly extreme incoordination and moderate incoordination, and other types of ESs are mostly reluctant coordination and moderate incoordination. The degree of incoordination in water yield and soil conservation have eased, while food supply and carbon storage have strengthened. For the comprehensive supply-demand relationship of ES, the degree of surplus and coordination increased, with most counties were in a state of surplus and coordination. (2) Water yield and soil conservation services flow primarily to the western and northwestern portions of the Loess Plateau, with a decrease in the number of flow paths but an increase in the total flow rate for the former and a decrease in flow paths and total flow rate for the latter. The food supply and carbon storage flow in all directions and the total flow rate increases, with a significant increase in the number of flow paths for carbon storage. (3) After considering ESF, the supply-demand relationship of each type of ES and the comprehensive ES supply-demand relationship are changed, in which the degree of surplus and coordination of deficit counties are significantly improved, and some counties even become surplus or improve the level of coordination. After considering ESF, the supply-demand ratio changes even more relative to the degree of coupling coordination. This study is of great significance for identifying the cross-regional transfer pattern of ES, understanding in-depth the dynamic supply-demand relationship of ES, and mitigating the mismatch between supply and demand of ES. It provides a scientific and objective theoretical basis for promoting regional sustainable development.

Measuring ecosystem services supply and demand in rural areas: cases from China's key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization

There is a considerable challenge to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of ending poverty and maintaining ecosystems' function in rural areas, largely due to that the rural people's livelihood relied heavily on fragile ecosystems. China is ambitious to solve this issue by enacting economic stimulus policies such as ecological protection compensation and payment for ecosystem services (ESs). However, these interventions are generally based on stockholders' willingness and lack of scientific basis. Here, we firstly combined InVEST model and social-economic data to evaluate the ecosystem services supply and demand (ESSD), by taking 25 key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization in Sichuan province as the study cases. The coupling coordination degree model was then employed to measure the coordination relationship of ESSD. Finally, the driving factors were analyzed based on correlation analysis and stepwise regression method. The results showed that all ESs, except carbon sequestration, were oversupplied with significant spatial heterogeneity. From 2000 to 2020, the supply of all ESs increased, in which the food production had the most notable increase ratio amounting to 48.20%, while the demand of water retention and air purification decreased substantially. Due to the inconsistency between cultivated land area and population changes, significant spatial heterogeneity existed in the coordination relationship of food production. The counties with the highest and the lowest annual average coordination index were Yanyuan (0.9950) and Rangtang (0.1208), respectively. The rural employees and the agricultural gross output value were the key positive factors influencing the quantity and coordination of ESSD, while ecological compensation and financial expenditure had no significant impact, further indicating that these policies were not linked to the performance of ecosystems' function. Finally, policy implications were raised. This study provides a scientific framework for enacting the interventions towards ecological sustainability and poverty ending from ESSD perspective.

Distributional environmental justice of residential walking space: The lens of urban ecosystem services supply and demand

Urban ecosystem services (UES), as an important concept in nature-based solutions, can effectively mitigate adverse environmental burdens and have great potential in addressing environmental justice issues. However, few studies linking UES with environmental justice have considered both supply and demand sides of UES, particularly at the spatial scale of residential walking space. Against this backdrop, we investigated the distributional justice of supply and demand for urban cooling, flood mitigation, air purification, and outdoor recreation in residential walking spaces in Shanghai among socially vulnerable groups (i.e., elderly residents, children, females, low-income residents, no-hukou residents, and ethnic minorities). We found that (1) the UES supply of residential walking space was much lower than that of non-residential walking space, while the UES demand was much higher than that of non-residential walking space. (2) Higher proportions of ethnic minorities, no-hukou residents, and females in Shanghai were positively correlated with several UES demands but were not positively correlated with ES supply, indicating a higher possibility of unsatisfied UES demand for these disadvantaged groups. Future urban blue-green space planning should pay more attention to the spatial allocation of blue-green space, especially placing more blue-green space around residential walking spaces with high UES demand and with a high proportion of socially disadvantaged groups.

Impact of Urbanization on Ecosystem Services Balance in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt, China: A Multi-Scale Perspective

Urbanization intensification seriously interferes with the supply capacity and demand level of ecosystem services (ESs); therefore, it affects the balance state of ESs. Coordination of urbanization development and ecosystem protection in the ecological economic belt is vital for ecological protection and high-quality development of the ecological economic belt. However, previous studies lacked multi-scale analysis of the impact of urbanization elements on the ESs balance index (ESBI) in the ecological economic belt. In this study, a geographically weighted regression model was employed to measure the spatial non-stationary patterns associated with the impact of urbanization elements on the ESBI at 5 km and 10 km in the Han River Ecological Economic Belt (HREEB) in China based on land use data. The main findings were shown as follows. The supply capacity and demand level of ESs in the HREEB increased from 2000 to 2020 simultaneously, while the ESBI showed a decreasing trend. In mountainous areas, the ESBIs were evidently higher than those in the plain areas. During the study period, the urbanization level in the HREEB improved evidently, and the urbanization levels of the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River were relatively high. Significant spatial dependence between urbanization elements and the ESBI was identified. Urbanization had significant positive and negative impacts on ESBI, and there were significant differences among different scales. The findings of this study can act as a decision-making reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the HREEB and can also provide a perspective for exploring the impact of urbanization on the ESBI of the ecological economic belt in other similar regions.

Multiscale Characteristics and Drivers of the Bundles of Ecosystem Service Budgets in the Su-Xi-Chang Region, China

Managing ecosystem services (ESs) to meet human needs is critical to achieving sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions. Identifying ES budget bundles and analyzing their drivers at a multiscale level can facilitate management decision-making; however, further research is required in areas undergoing rapid urbanization. This study quantified the supply, demand, and budgets of six typical ESs at the county, township, and village scales in the Su-Xi-Chang region in 2020. Additionally, the influence of natural environmental and socioeconomic factors on ES budget bundles was investigated based on K-means cluster analysis and the Geodetector model. The results showed that ESs on all three scales showed a mismatch between supply and demand. The similarity in the spatial pattern of supply, demand, and budgets of ESs at the township and village scales was higher than that at the township and county scales. The location and area of surplus, balance, and deficit varied with scale. We found that population density and the proportion of impervious surfaces are the main factors influencing the formation of the ES budget bundles at different scales. In addition, the diversity and degree of interpretation of drivers varied with scale. We believe that focusing on the overall situation on a large scale and implementing precise management on a small scale can make management decisions more effective. This study can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of ESs in the Su-Xi-Chang region, and the research results and methods can provide a reference for similar studies in other rapidly urbanizing areas in the world.

Estimating the effects of driving forces on ecosystem services and their responses to environmental conditions

Understanding the factors driving ecosystem service (ES) change is essential for maintaining ES functions and achieving sustainable development. Although research on the spatial variations in the effects of driving forces on ESs provides guidance for regional ecological management, the responses of driving forces to environmental conditions have not been adequately investigated, especially in regions with high spatial heterogeneity. By using remote sensing images and socioeconomic data, this paper aims to fill this gap by estimating the spatial distribution characteristics of the effects of driving forces on ESs and their responses to different environmental conditions in Sichuan Province, China. First, the biophysical values of soil conservation (SC) and water yield (WY) were evaluated using ecological simulation models. Second, the spatial distribution of the effects of four driving forces on two services was explored using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Finally, the responses of driving forces to environmental conditions were quantified by using scatter plots. The results revealed that the spatial patterns of SC and WY showed spatial heterogeneity. The effects of driving forces on ESs varied with space. Both positive and negative effects of driving forces were observed in Sichuan Province. Under different biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, the effects of driving forces on ESs showed different change trends, characterized by fluctuating trends and obvious thresholds. In our study area, urban sprawl, impervious surfaces, agricultural expansion, intensive human activities, and complex topographic features contributed to the variations in the effects of driving forces. Our results suggest that the responses of driving forces to different land-use coverage, topographical, NDVI, and socioeconomic conditions should be considered in ecological decision-making. Such research results are expected to manage the driving forces of ESs and serve as a practical reference for local management in order to maintain the functions of ESs and attain sustainable development.

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

Improving our understanding of the patterns and drivers of regional carbon budgets is critical to mitigating climate change regionally and globally. Different from previous research, our study attempts to reveal the comprehensive impact of climate change and human activities factors on the carbon budget. Based on the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model, the IPCC inventory method, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, the Geodetector model, and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, we investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of the carbon budget in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region from 2000 to 2015 and analyzed the effects of climate change and human activities on the carbon budget. The results showed that the carbon budget in the YRD region changed from 271.33 million tons in 2000 to −1193.76 million tons in 2015. During this period, the changes in the carbon budget per unit area in the four provinces all showed a decreasing trend, among which Shanghai decreased the most, followed by Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui. In terms of spatial pattern, the carbon budget of the YRD region has a “core-edge” structural feature. The closer it is to Shanghai, the core area, the more severe the carbon budget deficit; the farther from it, the greater the carbon budget surplus. Overall, we found that human activities have a greater impact on the carbon budget than climate change. The top three drivers were, in order, changes in population density, GDP per capita, and unused land, with q values of 0.3317, 0.1202, and 0.0998, respectively. Locally, the impact of the drivers on the carbon budget shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. In particular, the population density was negatively correlated with carbon budget changes in the entire study area, and the coefficients of GDP per capita and unused land were negative in most counties. Based on the results, we put forward suggestions for restricting population flow among the core area and the peripheral area, promoting industrial innovation in the core area and ecological protection in the peripheral area, as well as implementing three-dimensional space development in the core area and controlling the expansion of construction land in the peripheral area. Our study can provide a scientific basis for low-carbon development in the YRD region. The methodology and findings of this study can provide references for similar studies in other urbanized regions around the world.

Integrating the effects of driving forces on ecosystem services into ecological management: A case study from Sichuan Province, China

Driving forces are the factors that lead to the observed changes in the quantity and quality of ecosystem services (ESs). The relationship between driving forces and ESs involves considerable scale-related information. Place-based ecological management requires this information to support local sustainable development. Despite the importance of scale in ES research, most studies have only examined the association between ESs and their drivers at a single level, and few studies have examined this relationship at various scales or analyzed spatial heterogeneity. The purpose of this paper is to explore the significance of the scale-dependent effects of drivers on ESs for localized ecological management. The biophysical values of ESs were calculated using several ecological simulation models. The effects of driving forces on ESs were explored using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Variations in the effects of driving forces on ESs were examined at three scales: provincial, ecoregional, and subecoregional scales. Finally, canonical correlation analysis was used to identify the major environmental factors associated with these variations in each ecoregion. Our results show that (1) the distribution of soil conservation and water yield is highly heterogeneous; (2) four driving forces have significant positive and negative impacts on soil conservation and water yield, and their effects on the two services vary spatially (p < 0.05); (3) the impacts of drivers on ESs vary across different spatial scales, with a corresponding shift in the related environmental factors; and (4) in the study area, at the provincial scale, physical, topographical, and biophysical factors were key factors associated with the variations in the relationship between ESs and drivers, and at the ecoregional and subecoregional scales, physical, socioeconomic, topographical, and biophysical factors all contributed to these changes. Our results suggest that significant differences in topographical conditions (e.g., altitude, slope) can be incorporated for exploring the relationship between drivers and ESs and optimizing ecological management at the provincial scale, whereas significant differences in physical and socioeconomic conditions (e.g., urbanization levels, human activity, vegetation coverage) are more meaningful for localized ecological management at the ecoregional and subecological scales. These findings provide a basis for understanding the relationship between drivers and ESs at multiple scales as well as guidelines for improving localized ecological management and achieving sustainable development.

Spatial identification of restored priority areas based on ecosystem service bundles and urbanization effects in a megalopolis area

Rapid urbanization has altered the structure and function of urban ecosystems with respect to the demand for planning ecological restoration to inhibit ecological degradation. However, there is still a challenge to quickly and effectively identify the restored priority areas to maximize ecological service (ES) supply and enhance human well-being. Taking the Shenzhen metropolitan region as a case study area, this study identified the restored priority sites based on the ES bundles evolution and urbanization effects. The ES bundles were identified by analyzing the spatial dynamics under the hybrid urban landscape, then the impact of urbanization on the ES bundles was explored using linear regression analysis characterized by different levels of urbanization in different stages. Furthermore, the spatial statistics were used to identify the priority sites. The results showed that 68.78% of the grids had changed their ES bundles in terms of their quantities, types, and sites in Shenzhen during 1978-2018. The urbanization driver spatially shifts from provision of service to regulation and cultural ecosystem services and significantly negatively influences the composition and structure of the ES bundles in different urbanization stages. 1196 of the 1 square kilometer grids, which accounted for 54.17%, were identified to prioritize for ecological restoration in Shenzhen. However, only 4.08% of them need to set as the key ecological restoration site. This study explored an effectively spatial way to implement ecological restoration planning in a rapidly urbanized area.

Quantifying ecosystem service mismatches for land use planning: spatial-temporal characteristics and novel approach-a case study in Jiangsu Province, China

Land use and land cover changes associated with urbanization have had a significant influence on ecosystem services (ESs), but previous studies have insufficiently focused on the relationships between ES supply and demand; these relationships are seldom considered in the science-policy frameworks of land use planning. In this study, a specific supply-demand indicator was constructed to measure ES supply and demand and their disparity across multiple scales in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2018. High spatial heterogeneity and mismatches of ES supply and demand were found in water yield, grain production, carbon sequestration, soil conservation, heat regulation, and recreation services. At provincial scale, the supplies of carbon sequestration and heat regulation services were smaller than their demands. At the 1-km² grid scale, the ES supply and demand mismatches in urban areas were more serious than those in surrounding areas, especially for carbon sequestration and recreation services. Five ES supply-demand risk zones were identified based on the current status and trends of all ES supply and demand. Southern Jiangsu generally had high risks of ES mismatch, which should be reduced by strategic planning. Constructing the ES supply-demand indicator is a novel practice that assists in evaluating environmental issues and integrating them into further development decisions. This paper suggests that governments should reduce ES mismatches with reference to local conditions (economic development, industrial type, and ecological carrying capacity) and the actual situation of ES supply and demand.

Spatial mismatch of ecosystem service demands and supplies in China, 2000-2020

The supply capacity of ecosystem services (ES) in the past decades has shown a significant decrease globally, while ES demand capacity has increased. Identifying the spatial mismatch of ES supply and demand (ES S&D) can provide valuable knowledge about where the gaps are. Existing studies, however, lack specifics about the spatial mismatch of ES S&D-that is, few studies consider the coupling and decoupling relationship of ES S&D at the national scale. This study tries to fill the gap by examining the spatiotemporal distribution of ES S&D capacity in China from 2000 through 2020 using the land use/land cover matrix method. The spatial mismatch between ES S&D was ultimately identified by using coupling and decoupling analysis models. A continuous increase was found in the ES demand capacity in China during the period studied, while a continuous decline was found in the ES supply capacity. The coupling degree of the ES S&D was relatively higher in the plains areas. The strong negative decoupling was the dominant relationship between ES S&D, which was widely distributed in eastern and southeastern China. The spatial mismatch of ES S&D in China has increased substantially from 2000 through 2020. The findings in this study provide important implications for ES management and effective allocation of resources.

Quantifying spatial non-stationarity in the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ecosystem services: An example in the New Zealand hill country

Knowing how landscape structure affects the provision of ecosystem services (ES) is an important first step toward better landscape planning. Because landscape structure is often heterogenous across space, modelling the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ES must account for spatial non-stationarity. This paper examines the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ES using a hill country and steep-land case farm in New Zealand. Indicators derived from land cover and topographical data such as Largest Patch Index (LPI), Contrast Class Edge (CCE), Edge Density (ED), and Terrain slope (SLOPE) were used to examine the landscape's structure and pattern. Measures of pasture productivity, soil erosion control, and water supply were derived with InVEST tools and spatial analysis in a GIS. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) was used to evaluate the relationship between indicators of landscape structure and the provisioning of ES. Other regression models, including Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), were carried out to evaluate the performance of MGWR. Results showed that landscape patterns significantly affect the supply of all mapped ES, and this varies across the landscape, dependent on the pattern of topographical features and land cover pattern and structure. MWGR outperformed other OLS and GWR in terms of explanatory power of the ES determinants and had a better ability to deal with the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Spatially and quantitatively detailed variations of the relationship between landscape structure and the provision of ES provide a scientific basis to inform the design of sustainable multifunctional landscapes. Information derived from this analysis can be used for spatial planning of farmed landscapes to promote multiple ES which meet multiple sustainable development objectives.

Improving ecosystem services supply provides insights for sustainable landscape planning: A case study in Beijing, China

Promoting land use planning through ecosystem service (ES) protection is a crucial approach for maintaining landscape sustainability. Identifying ES bundles to serve landscape functional zoning can provide a new perspective for sustainable land use planning. Taking the Beijing metropolitan region as a study area, we quantitatively assessed the spatiotemporal distributions of multiple ESs, from 1980 to 2017, based on land use changes. By combining ES patterns and comprehensive ecosystem service (CES), distinct ES bundles were identified through the clustering method. Based on the ES bundles, landscape functional zones were then established. We further developed improved land use scenarios to conserve ESs in selected towns of different functional zones by exploring dominant factors influencing ESs. Results showed that most of ESs decreased due to the expansion of developed lands. According to the classification of ES bundles, Beijing can be classified into three landscape functional zones at town level: the ecological conservation region (ECR), food production region (FPR), and urban development region (UDR). For each landscape functional zone, the town with the greatest decline in CES value was selected. Associated with the influencing factors of ESs, local land use patterns, and ecological protection policies, corresponding multi-step improved land use scenarios were designed. These scenarios were demonstrated to be effective in conserving ESs in the selected towns: (1) the agricultural expansion scenario, which enhanced food provision services in the ECR; (2) the forest conservation scenario, which enhanced habitat and recreational services in the FPR; and (3) the developed land optimization scenario, which enhanced a range of regulating services in the UDR. Overall, this study used landscape functional zoning as a nexus to connect ES patterns and land use management. The optimized land use strategies can provide references for conserving ESs and enhancing landscape sustainability in Beijing and other similar metropolitan areas worldwide.

Gray Forecast of Ecosystem Services Value and Its Driving Forces in Karst Areas of China: A Case Study in Guizhou Province, China

A sound ecosystem is the prerequisite for the sustainable development of human society, and the karst ecosystem is a key component of the global ecosystem, which is essential to human welfare and livelihood. However, there remains a gap in the literature on the changing trend and driving factors of ecosystem services value (ESV) in karst areas. In this study, Guizhou Province, a representative region of karst mountainous areas, was taken as a case to bridge the gap. ESV in the karst areas was predicted, based on the land use change data in 2009-2018, and the driving mechanisms were explored through the gray correlation analysis method. Results show that a total loss of CNY 21.47 billion ESV from 2009 to 2018 is due to the conversion of a total of 22.566% of the land in Guizhou, with forest land as the main cause of ESV change. By 2025 and 2030, the areas of garden land, water area, and construction land in Guizhou Province will continue to increase, whereas the areas of cultivated land, forest land, and garden land will decline. The total ESV shows a downward trend and will decrease to CNY 218.71 billion by 2030. Gray correlation analysis results illuminate that the total population and tertiary industry proportion are the uppermost, among all the driving factors that affect ESV change. The findings in this study have important implications for optimizing and adjusting the land use structure ecological protection and will enrich the literature on ESV in ecologically fragile areas.

Identifying the spatial disparities and determinants of ecosystem service balance and their implications on land use optimization

Ecosystem services (ESs) are increasingly affected by human interventions, and the ES balance between supply and demand plays a vital role in guaranteeing the expected efficacy of ecosystem restoration projects. However, the spatial disparities of ES balance, along with its determinants and spillover effects, remain unclear, constraining effective ES management and landscape planning. The aim of this study was to fill these gaps by quantifying the ES balance in the restoring Loess Plateau using an expert-based ES matrix approach and by examining the spatial associations between ES balance and driving factors via an integrated regression approach. The results showed that the county-scale ES balance was closely related to the land-use composition and population density. Geographic locations of counties with ES surplus were mainly concentrated in mountainous areas with high proportions of woodland and grassland, while urbanized land and a high population density resulted in an ES deficit. Forest and grass regeneration, due to revegetation practices, alleviated ES deficits, while rapid urbanization and population growth aggravated ES imbalance. The integrated regression approach demonstrated that the ES balance and its dependencies (i.e., landscape metrics and population density) had remarkable spatial heterogeneity and spillover effects, which should be practically considered in localized ES management and landscape optimization. Excessive agricultural reclamation and urban expansion improved grain productivity and economic profits but deteriorated landscape fragmentation, further aggravating the ES deficit. In contrast, excessive revegetation practices promoted ecosystem restoration and improved ES surplus but threatened food security. Therefore, an appropriate balanced state should be maintained for sustainable ecosystem restoration through timely and efficient policy interventions and landscape optimization.

Identifying key areas of imbalanced supply and demand of ecosystem services at the urban agglomeration scale: A case study of the Fujian Delta in China

The coordinated supply and demand of ecosystem services (ESs) is important for ensuring regional sustainable development. However, research identifying key areas of imbalanced supply and demand of ESs at the urban agglomeration scale is limited. Therefore, in this study, using the Fujian Delta urban agglomeration of China as the research area, based on multi-source data, and analysis tools, such as ArcGIS, ENVI, and GeoDa, we constructed a research framework and indicator system for ESs supply and demand to determine the spatial change law, matching degree, and coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the ESs. On this basis, the key areas of imbalanced supply and demand of ESs were identified, and optimization strategies were proposed. The results showed that (1) there is obvious spatial heterogeneity between ESs supply and demand in the study area, and different degrees of spatial changes occurred with urbanization. Specifically, areas with large changes were concentrated in urban core areas and economic development zones. (2) The matching degree between ESs supply and demand is quite diverse and shows a trend of polarization. Under the influence of urbanization, some cities began facing ESs supply shortages. (3) Overall, the CCD between ESs supply and demand in the study area is in a state of mild incoordination, but with increasing urbanization, some cities have turned into a state of extreme incoordination. Our results indicate that the ESs supply and demand status in some cities at the urban agglomeration scale has become increasingly severe. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on certain "key areas" to formulate optimization strategies. For key areas with "low supply-high demand" and extreme incoordination, the population and land use intensity should be controlled to reduce the ESs demand level. Meanwhile, for key areas with "high supply-low demand" and extreme incoordination, the utilization efficiency of ecological resources should be improved to enhance the ESs supply capacity. The results of this study will help decision-makers optimize the relationship between ESs supply and demand in order to achieve the sustainable development of urban agglomeration.

An analytical approach for assessment of geographical variation in ecosystem service intensity in Punjab, Pakistan

Ecosystem services (ESs) are a diverse range of environmental properties that have significant effects on both landscape characteristics and human well-being, an understanding of the spatial variation of which is required for effective ecosystem management and conservation. In this study, we aimed to identify the geographical variation in ESs and examine the factors impacting ESs in Punjab Province, Pakistan. We evaluated ecosystem service intensity (ESI) by using the benefit transfer method and investigated the spatial heterogeneity of ESIs at the tehsil level by using an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) model and semivariance analysis. This analysis indicated that spatial distribution of ESI shows significant and optimal spatial heterogeneity of ESs, revealing several hot and cold spots for ESI transformation in the study area. The ESI decreased from east to west and north to south, with a trough in the metropolitan zones, including Lahore, Sheikhupura, Faisalabad, and Multan, which was in accordance with the land use/cover pattern. Furthermore, using geographically weighted regression (GWR) analysis, we also identified geographical clusters within which land use/cover pressure and population growth were significantly positively associated with ESI across the province, based on a lag distance scale. The findings of this study have functional economic implications with respect to highlighting areas worthy of conservation and designing ecological corridors to enhance the delivery of ESs for regional benefits.

Projected losses of ecosystem services in the US disproportionately affect non-white and lower-income populations

Addressing how ecosystem services (ES) are distributed among groups of people is critical for making conservation and environmental policy-making more equitable. Here, we evaluate the distribution and equity of changes in ES benefits across demographic and socioeconomic groups in the United States (US) between 2020 and 2100. Specifically, we use land cover and population projections to model potential shifts in the supply, demand, and benefits of the following ES: provision of clean air, protection against a vector-borne disease (West Nile virus), and crop pollination. Across the US, changes in ES benefits are unevenly distributed among socioeconomic and demographic groups and among rural and urban communities, but are relatively uniform across geographic regions. In general, non-white, lower-income, and urban populations disproportionately bear the burden of declines in ES benefits. This is largely driven by the conversion of forests and wetlands to cropland and urban land cover in counties where these populations are expected to grow. In these locations, targeted land use policy interventions are required to avoid exacerbating inequalities already present in the US.

Multidimensional Assessment of Food Provisioning Ecosystem Services Using Remote Sensing and Agricultural Statistics

With the increasing global population, human demands for natural resources continue to grow. There is a critical need for the sustainable use and development of natural resources. In this context, ecosystem services have attracted more and more attention, and ecosystem services assessment has proven to be useful for guiding research, policy formulation, and management implementation. In this paper, we attempted to assess ecosystem services more comprehensively from various perspectives. We used food provisioning ecosystem services in Minnesota as a case study and proposed two new concepts for assessing ecosystem services: efficiency and trend. We designed a multidimensional assessment framework, analyzed the total output, efficiency, and trend temporally based on both area and space with Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA). We also identified major influencing factors based on remote sensing images in Google Earth Engine and explored the quantitative influence on each assessment dimension. We found that: (1) Food provisioning ecosystem service in Minnesota has generally been improving from 1998 to 2018. (2) We identified food provisioning ecosystem services in Minnesota as superior zones, mixed zones, and inferior zones with a ‘sandwich geo-configuration’. (3) The total output tends to be stable while the efficiency is disturbed by some natural disasters. Simultaneously, the trend index has been improving with slight fluctuations. (4) Agricultural disaster financial support has a stronger impact on stabilizing the total output of food provisioning than the other two dimensions. (5) Soil moisture, diurnal temperature difference, and crop growth are the three main influencing aspects of food provisioning ecosystem services, and the order of the influential density is: the Perpendicular Drought Index (PDI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Rainfall (RF), Daytime Temperature (DT), and Diurnal Temperature Difference (DIF).

Spatial Heterogeneity of Vegetation Response to Mining Activities in Resource Regions of Northwestern China

Aggregated mining development has direct and indirect impacts on vegetation changes. This impact shows spatial differences due to the complex influence of multiple mines, which is a common issue in resource regions. To estimate the spatial heterogeneity of vegetation response to mining activities, we coupled vegetation changes and mining development through a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model for three cumulative periods between 1999 and 2018 in integrated resource regions of northwestern China. Vegetation changes were monitored by Sen’s slope and the Mann–Kendall test according to a total of 72 Landsat images. Spatial distribution of mining development was quantified, due to four land-use maps in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2017. The results showed that 80% of vegetation in the study area experienced different degrees of degradation, more serious in the overlapping areas of multiple mines and mining areas. The scope of influence for single mines on vegetation shrunk by about 48%, and the mean coefficients increased by 20%, closer to mining areas. The scope of influence for multiple mines on vegetation gradually expanded to 86% from the outer edge to the inner overlapping areas of mining areas, where the mean coefficients increased by 92%. The correlation between elevation and vegetation changes varied according to the average elevation of the total mining areas. Ultimately, the available ecological remediation should be systematically considered for local conditions and mining consequences.

The Configuration of Forest Cover in Ribeirão Preto: A Diagnosis of Brazil’s Forest Code Implementation

The fragmentation of forests is a consequence of human activities that intensively change the natural landscapes. In Brazil, there is a long-standing legal framework for native vegetation protection, called Forest Code. The last update is from 2012. The revisions incorporated in this restructured code (Law No. 12,651/12) encompassed new rules, rights and obligations for adequate land use management of productive systems and for environmental conservation and protection. An example of a protective measure was the creation of a Legal Reserve inside the rural properties and Areas of Permanent Protection around the watercourses. This study explored the effects of implementing the new code on the spatial and temporal evolution of forest cover fragmentation since the legal changes were set up. In that context, the area, perimeter and shape (circularity index) of forest fragments, as well as the buffer strips along watercourses, were assessed from 2010 to 2016 within the municipality of Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo state, Brazil. The assessment resorted to remote sensing techniques and visual inspection of orbital images. It was clear from the results that forest patches became more abundant but smaller, more dispersed and elongated, and that this route to fragmentation was hinged on a chaotic expansion of urban and agricultural areas. Important edge effects were anticipated from these results. The area numbers revealed that Ribeirão Preto was 7.95% covered with forest fragments in 2010, while this percentage rose to 8.03% in 2013 and reached 8.35% in 2016. Most of this increase occurred within a 30-meter wide buffer along the watercourses. This was a positive outcome. However, the numbers also revealed that forested areas smaller than 51 hectares increased from 71% in 2010 to 73% in 2016. The conclusions were that implementation of Law No. 12,651/12 is leading to an increase of forestland, but not yet promoting sustainability, namely through improved connectivity among fragments for reduction of edge effects and provision ecosystem services.

Perception of Ecosystem Services in Constituting Multi-Functional Landscapes in Slovakia

Landscape provides many services for human wellbeing through its mosaic of ecosystems. Although different landscape spatial structures limit some access to these services for local residents, their demand for landscape benefits creates a crucial component in landscape planning. Herein, we evaluate the ecosystem service supply from landscape structures in four different areas of Slovakia and we identify the public preferences for these services. This evaluation was assisted by expert-based ecosystem services (ES) matrix assessment and feedback from experts and key local stakeholders. The associated land cover assessment revealed that although forests are the most important for ES delivery, followed by extensive agricultural mosaics, cultural services have the highest average supply value. In contrast, the experts and local stakeholders considered that provisioning services were the most important of all ES groups because of products available from arable land. The overall public awareness of benefits provided by nature proved relatively high, and this is a good sign for the development of multi-functional landscapes. The comparison of study sites revealed that even stakeholders living in intensively used land, with its overall low ES supply, assessed ES as very important in general. The general public could therefore be included in environmental planning to promote a more multi-functional landscape. In addition, the analysis herein will communicate gained insights to the local planners and decision-makers and confirm the importance of this ES participatory approach using top-down methodology. This may require the following measures in Slovakia: establishing an interdisciplinary group of experts for regular assessment of strategic landscape planning documents and regulatory instruments, developing key directives which establish well-balanced participatory procedures, improving open local government, and supporting down-scaled implementation of integrated landscape planning in cooperation with local action groups.