The use of socio-economy in species distribution modelling: Features of rural societies improve predictions of barn owl occurrence

Fatal Traps in Western Barn Owls' (Tyto alba) Nesting Sites: The Consequence of Improper Building Modification

Human activities can highly impact species that rely on man-made structures for shelter or nesting, and building modifications for pest control or maintenance can have hidden ecological consequences. The breeding of the western barn owl (Tyto alba; hereafter barn owl) is especially associated with agricultural and church buildings. It is well known that the renovation of churches and their architectural protection against unwanted animals have significantly reduced the availability of barn owl nesting sites in recent decades. However, other potential direct consequences of church modifications have not been investigated sufficiently. We demonstrated how improperly modified church towers can act as traps, allowing the owls to enter the building but preventing them from leaving, which can lead to mass mortality, as we documented in two cases. This study highlights the need for deeper and more multifaceted investigations of building protection in light of such consequences that have been generally hidden until now in order to protect the barn owl more effectively.

Biodiversity Change in Cultural Landscapes-The Rural Hotspot Hypothesis

A dramatic decrease of biodiversity is currently questioning human-environment interactions that have shaped ecosystems over thousands of years. In old cultural landscapes of Central and East European (CEE) countries, a vast species decline has been reported for various taxa although intensive land cultivation has been reduced in favor of agroecological transformation, nature conservation and sustainable land management in the past 30 years. Thus, in the recent history, agricultural intensification cannot solely be discussed as the major driver controlling biodiversity. In cultural landscapes, we state that drivers and pressures mainly emerge from the backyards of rural settlements that act as interconnected rural hotspots and therefore form an ecological metapopulation in which small-scale backyard habitats are capable of preserving and exchanging species pools of the historical cultural landscape. We further argue that shifting sociocultural norms significantly affecting the survival of source populations in rural hotspots and drastically limit their dispersal pathways, which triggers the degradation of the rural metapopulation in recent times. Pressures of cultivation shift, landscape decoupling, structural homogenization, and use of technology and agrochemicals are identified as backyard ecological drivers negatively affecting biodiversity preservation, particularly in the surrounding rural landscape. Spatiotemporal dimensions of backyard pressures involving material fluxes, species exchange and retention, alternation of site conditions, and local genetic adaptation are delineated for different backyard features, including building structures, gardens, lawns, and paved grounds. Finally, we propose a future research agenda to quantify effects and trends of rural hotspots and followed patterns of altered species dynamics. We give an example on the use of satellite time series to remotely map rural backyard habitats and reveal significant spatiotemporal trends induced by small-scale human behavior that may lead to a new socioecological perception and stimulate actions to shape ecological dynamics emerging from the backyards of human settlements.

Parrots in the wild in Polish cities

Amateur breeding of parrots as pets has contributed to many species being found in areas where they never occurred in the wild, particularly in warmer regions, but also in the temperate climates of North America and Europe. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this process. We hypothesised that parrots occurred in the wild in the cities of Poland, especially the rose-ringed parakeet, as there are reports of breeding sites in the literature. Using information on lost, found and sighted parrots posted on social media, we have analysed the extent of parrot emergence in Poland. In a period of less than two years (from October 2018, through 2019 and from June to the end of December 2021), 2,675 parrot specimens of 49 species were found in the wild. The most frequently observed species were cockatiel Nymphicus hollandicus (N = 962), budgerigar Melopsittacus undulatus (N = 884) and rose-ringed parakeet Psittacula krameri (N = 182). Parrots were most frequently observed in urban areas, in regions characterized by a higher population size, a higher income and a higher proportion of people with a university degree. Our study shows that the occurrence of parrots, especially rose-ringed parakeets in the wild, needs to be monitored as new breeding sites may appear.

Socio-economic variables improve accuracy and change spatial predictions in species distribution models

In an era marked by increasing anthropogenic pressure, understanding the relations between human activities and wildlife is crucial for understanding ecological patterns, effective conservation, and management strategies. Here, we explore the potential and usefulness of socio-economic variables in species distribution modelling (SDM), focusing on their impact on the occurrence of wild mammals in Poland. Beyond the environmental factors commonly considered in SDM, like land-use, the study tests the importance of socio-economic characteristics of local human societies, such as age, income, working sector, gender, education, and village characteristics for explaining distribution of diverse mammalian groups, including carnivores, ungulates, rodents, soricids, and bats. The study revealed that incorporating socio-economic variables enhances the predictive power for >60 % of species and overall for most groups, with the exception being carnivores. For all the species combined, among the 10 predictors with highest predictive power, 6 belong to socio-economic group, while for specific species groups, socio-economic variables had similar predictive power as environmental variables. Furthermore, spatial predictions of species occurrence underwent changes when socio-economic variables were included in the model, resulting in a substantial mismatch in spatial predictions of species occurrence between environment-only models and models containing socio-economic variables. We conclude that socio-economic data has potential as useful predictors which increase prediction accuracy of wildlife occurrence and recommend its wider usage. Further, to our knowledge this is a first study on such a big scale for terrestrial mammals which evaluates performance based on presence or absence of socio-economic predictors in the model. We recognise the need for a more comprehensive approach in SDMs and that bridging the gap between human socio-economic dynamics and ecological processes may contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing biodiversity.