Heatwaves intensification in Australia: A consistent trajectory across past, present and future

How climate change degrades child health: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Children are more vulnerable than adults to climate-related health threats, but reviews examining how climate change affects human health have been mainly descriptive and lack an assessment of the magnitude of health effects children face. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis that identifies which climate-health relationships pose the greatest threats to children.

OBJECTIVES

We reviewed epidemiologic studies to analyse various child health outcomes due to climate change and identify the relationships with the largest effect size. We identify population-specific risks and provide recommendations for future research.

METHODS

We searched four large online databases for observational studies published up to 5 January 2023 following PRISMA (systematic review) guidelines. We evaluated each included study individually and aggregated relevant quantitative data. We used quantitative data in our meta-analysis, where we standardised effect sizes and compared them among different groupings of climate variables and health outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 1301 articles we identified, 163 studies were eligible for analysis. We identified many relationships between climate change and child health, the strongest of which was increasing risk (60 % on average) of preterm birth from exposure to temperature extremes. Respiratory disease, mortality, and morbidity, among others, were also influenced by climate changes. The effects of different air pollutants on health outcomes were considerably smaller compared to temperature effects, but with most (16/20 = 80 %) pollutant studies indicating at least a weak effect. Most studies occurred in high-income regions, but we found no geographical clustering according to health outcome, climate variable, or magnitude of risk. The following factors were protective of climate-related child-health threats: (i) economic stability and strength, (ii) access to quality healthcare, (iii) adequate infrastructure, and (iv) food security. Threats to these services vary by local geographical, climate, and socio-economic conditions. Children will have increased prevalence of disease due to anthropogenic climate change, and our quantification of the impact of various aspects of climate change on child health can contribute to the planning of mitigation that will improve the health of current and future generations.

The impact of extreme heat on older regional and rural Australians: A systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Extreme heat causes a major health burden, especially for older Australians.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the impact of extreme heat on older regional and rural Australians, including clinical presentations, social implications, and health-seeking behaviours and adaptations.

DESIGN

A systematic review and narrative synthesis.

FINDINGS

Ten articles were included in the review with research on this topic limited. Extreme heat causes an increase in mortality and ambulance dispatches for older rural Australians. Social connectedness is negatively affected by extreme heat due to cancellation of events and individuals becoming housebound. Air conditioning is the main cooling mechanism used, although cost is a major concern. Despite this, older rural populations display a depth of knowledge regarding practical behavioural responses to adapt to extreme heat. Studies show older rural Australians do not consider extreme heat to be a threat to health.

DISCUSSION

Further research needs to examine the role extreme heat may play in contributing to experiences of loneliness. Air conditioning cannot be the ultimate solution in responding to extreme heat due to cost and increased carbon emissions. The low-risk perception of extreme heat for older rural people may inform effective heat health warnings and effective use of primary health care in heat-health education. Listening to First Nations knowledge in dealing with heat may provide a powerful mechanism in which to protect health.

CONCLUSION

The extensive health effects of extreme heat highlights the necessity of further research and strengthening of services in preparation for an ageing rural population enduring climate change.

Preparing for a hotter climate: A systematic review and meta-analysis of heatwaves and ambulance callouts in Australia

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of heatwaves on likelihood of ambulance callouts for Australia.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to retrieve and synthesise evidence published from 1 January 2011 to 31 May 2023 about the association between heatwaves and the likelihood of ambulance callouts in Australia. Different heatwave definitions were used ranging from excess heat factor to heatwave defined as a continuous period with temperatures above certain defined thresholds (which varied based on study locations).

RESULTS

We included nine papers which met the inclusion criteria for the review. Eight were eligible for the meta-analyses. The multilevel meta-analyses revealed that the likelihood of ambulance callouts for all causes and for cardiovascular diseases increased by 10% (95% confidence interval: 8%, 13%) and 5% (95% confidence interval: 1%, 3%), respectively, during heatwave days.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to heatwaves is associated with an increased likelihood of ambulance callouts, and there is a dose-response association between heatwave severity and the likelihood of ambulance callouts.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH

The number of heatwave days are going to increase, and this will mean an increase in the likelihood of ambulance callouts, thereby, spotlighting the real burden that heatwaves place on our already stressed healthcare system. The findings of this study underscore the critical need for proactive measures, including the establishment of research initiatives and holistic heat health awareness campaigns, spanning from the individual and community levels to the healthcare system, in order to create a more resilient Australia in the face of heatwave-related challenges.

A novel optimized model based on NARX networks for predicting thermal anomalies in Polish lakes during heatwaves, with special reference to the 2018 heatwave

In 2018, Europe experienced one of the most severe heatwaves ever recorded. This extreme event's impact on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) in Polish lakes has largely remained unknown. In this study, the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on LSWT in 24 Polish lakes was investigated based on a long-term observed dataset (1987-2020). To capture the LSWT dynamics during the heatwave period and reproduce lake heatwaves, a novel BO-NARX-BR model was developed and evaluated. This model combines the capabilities of the Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) neural network, the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm for optimizing the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm for the NARX training. The results showed that from April to October 2018, the mean and maximum LSWTs were 2.35 and 3.38 °C warmer than the base-period average (1987-2010) due to the impact of the extreme heatwave. The NARX-based model outperformed another widely used model called air2water in calibration and validation periods. The results also revealed that the BO-NARX-BR model produced significantly better results in capturing lake heatwaves, with computed duration and intensity of lake heatwaves close to the in-situ data. Additionally, LSWT anomaly significantly impacted the duration and intensity of heatwaves that occurred in lakes. Extreme climatic events are gaining increasing importance for the functioning of various elements of the hydrosphere. Such a situation encourages the search for more accurate methods and tools for their prediction. The model applied in the paper corresponds with these assumptions, and its good performance allows for its adaptation to lakes in other regions.

Projection of high temperature-related burden of kidney disease in Australia under different climate change, population and adaptation scenarios: population-based study

Background

The dual impacts of a warming climate and population ageing lead to an increasing kidney disease prevalence, highlighting the importance of quantifying the burden of kidney disease (BoKD) attributable to high temperature, yet studies on this subject are limited. The study aims to quantify the BoKD attributable to high temperatures in Australia across all states and territories, and project future BoKD under climatic, population and adaptation scenarios.

Methods

Data on disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to kidney disease, including years of life lost (YLL), and years lived with disability (YLD), were collected during 2003-2018 (baseline) across all states and territories in Australia. The temperature-response association was estimated using a meta-regression model. Future temperature projections were calculated using eight downscaled climate models to estimate changes in attributable BoKD centred around 2030s and 2050s, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), while considering changes in population size and age structure, and human adaptation to climate change.

Findings

Over the baseline (2003-2018), high-temperature contributed to 2.7% (Standard Deviation: 0.4%) of the observed BoKD in Australia. The future population attributable fraction and the attributable BoKD, projected using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, showed a gradually increasing trend when assuming no human adaptation. Future projections were most strongly influenced by the population change, with the high temperature-related BoKD increasing by 18.4-67.4% compared to the baseline under constant population and by 100.2-291.2% when accounting for changes in population size and age structure. However, when human adaptation was adopted (from no to partial to full), the high temperature-related BoKD became smaller.

Interpretation

It is expected that increasing high temperature exposure will substantially contribute to higher BoKD across Australia, underscoring the urgent need for public health interventions to mitigate the negative health impacts of a warming climate on BoKD.

Funding

Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Review article: Scoping review of the characteristics and outcomes of adults presenting to the emergency department during heatwaves

As a result of climate change heatwaves are expected to increase in frequency and intensity and will have detrimental impacts on human health globally. EDs are often the critical point of care for acute heat illnesses and other conditions associated with heat exposure. Existing literature has focused on heatwave-related hospitalisation and mortality. This scoping review aimed to identify, evaluate and summarise current literature regarding patient characteristics and outcomes of ED admissions from heatwaves. A scoping review of the literature was conducted using six databases: Medline, EMBASE, EMCARE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Scopus, using MeSH terms and keywords related to 'heatwave' and 'Emergency Department'. Articles were included if they were: published in English from January 2000 to August 2021, related to ED, and examined high temperature periods consistent with heatwave criteria. Articles were appraised using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT). Thirty-one studies were included, mostly from the United States, Australia, and France. The study designs include retrospective case analysis, case-control, and time-series analysis. Eight studies examined known heatwaves, 21 used different criteria to identify heatwave occurrence, and two focused on heat-related illness. The selected articles display a moderate-high quality on MMAT. ED admissions for both heat-related illnesses and other conditions increased during heatwaves, with up to 18.5 times risk increase. The risk was elevated for all population groups, and substantially in the elderly, male patients with certain comorbidities, medications, or lower socioeconomic status. Outcomes including hospitalisation and mortality rates after ED admissions showed positive associations with heatwaves. The heatwaves resulting from climate change will place increasing demands on EDs providing care for increasingly susceptible populations. Significant public heatwave planning across multiple sectors is required to reduce the risk of overwhelming EDs with these patients.

Impacts of climate change on nutrient and sediment loads from a subtropical catchment

Climate change is predicted to significantly alter hydrological cycles across the world, affecting runoff, streamflow, and pollutant loads from diffuse sources. The objectives of this study were to examine the impacts of climate change on streamflow, total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) loads in the subtropical Logan-Albert catchment, Queensland, Australia. We calibrated the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) against event monitoring data in the Logan and Albert rivers, respectively. Hydrological and water quality effects of an ensemble of 11 dynamically downscaled high-resolution climate models were assessed with SWAT under high (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 - RCP8.5) and intermediate (RCP4.5) emission scenarios. Streamflow decreased most in winter and spring and decreased least in summer. This followed the predicted seasonal changes for precipitation, although decreases tended to be amplified due to increasing evaporative loss. TSS, TN, and TP loads showed a similar pattern to streamflow, with the largest decreases predicted for the dry season under RCP8.5 by the 2080s. Annual TSS load decreased by 34.3 and 54.2%, TN load decreased by 29.8 and 30.5%, and TP load by 24.9 and 4.4% for the Logan and Albert sites, respectively. The results of this study indicate that for subtropical river-estuary systems, climate warming may lead to lower streamflow and contaminant loads, reduced flushing, and greater relative importance of point source loads in urbanising catchments.

Climate change, environmental extremes, and human health in Australia: challenges, adaptation strategies, and policy gaps

Climate change presents a major public health concern in Australia, marked by unprecedented wildfires, heatwaves, floods, droughts, and the spread of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Despite these challenges, Australia's response to the climate crisis has been inadequate and subject to change by politics, public sentiment, and global developments. This study illustrates the spatiotemporal patterns of selected climate-related environmental extremes (heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and droughts) across Australia during the past two decades, and summarizes climate adaptation measures and actions that have been taken by the national, state/territory, and local governments. Our findings reveal significant impacts of climate-related environmental extremes on the health and well-being of Australians. While governments have implemented various adaptation strategies, these plans must be further developed to yield concrete actions. Moreover, Indigenous Australians should not be left out in these adaptation efforts. A collaborative, comprehensive approach involving all levels of government is urgently needed to prevent, mitigate, and adapt to the health impacts of climate change.

Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios

BACKGROUND

Heatwaves have significant adverse effects on human health. The frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase dramatically, in the context of global warming. However, there are few comprehensive assessments of the health impact of heatwaves considering different definitions, and their characteristics under climate change scenarios.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to compare future excess mortality related to heatwaves among different definitions under climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in China and further explore the mortality burden associated with heatwave characteristics.

METHODS

Daily data during 2010-2019 were collected in Guangzhou, China. We adopted nine common heatwave definitions and applied quasi-Poisson models to estimate the effects of heatwaves and their characteristics' impact on mortality. We then projected the excess mortality associated with heatwaves and their characteristics concerning climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

RESULTS

The relative risks of the nine common heatwave definitions ranged from 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10) to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.35). Heatwave-related excess mortality will consistently increase in the future decades considering multiple heatwave definitions, with more rapidly increasing rates under the Shared Socioeconomic Path5-8.5 and non-adaptability scenarios. Regarding heatwave characteristics, the intensity is the main factor involved in the threat of heatwaves. The increasing trend of characteristic-related mortality burden is similar to that of heatwaves, and the mortality burden caused by the duration of the heatwaves was the largest among all characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of heatwaves and their characteristics on public health under various climate change scenarios, population changes, and adaptive assumptions. The results may provide important public health implications for policymakers in planning climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, and implementing specific plans.

Heatwaves and mortality in Queensland 2010-2019: implications for a homogenous state-wide approach

Heatwaves are a significant cause of adverse health outcomes and mortality in Australia, worsening with climate change. In Queensland, the northeastern-most state, little is known about the impact of heatwaves outside of the capital city of Brisbane. This study aims to explore the impact of heatwaves on mortality across various demographic and environmental conditions within Queensland from 2010 to 2019. The Excess Heat Factor was used to indicate heatwave periods at the Statistical Area 2 (SA2) level. Registered deaths data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and heatwave data from the Bureau of Meteorology were matched using a case-crossover approach. Relative risk and 95% confidence intervals were calculated across years, regions, age, sex, rurality, socioeconomic status, and cause of death. Heatwaves were associated with a 5% increase in all-cause mortality compared to deaths on non-heatwave days, with variability across the state. The risk of death on a heatwave day versus a non-heatwave day varied by heatwave severity. Individuals living in urban centers, the elderly, and those living in regions of lower socioeconomic status were most impacted by heatwave mortality. The relative risk of dying from neoplasms, nervous system conditions, respiratory conditions, and mental and behavioral conditions increased during heatwaves. As heatwaves increase in Queensland due to climate change, understanding the impact of heatwaves on mortality across Queensland is important to tailor public health messages. There is considerable variability across communities, demographic groups, and medical conditions, and as such messages need to be tailored to risk.

Nexus of heat-vulnerable chronic diseases and heatwave mediated through tri-environmental interactions: A nationwide fine-grained study in Australia

The warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to the increased prevalence of heat-vulnerable chronic diseases in many regions of the world. However, understanding the relationship between heat-vulnerable chronic diseases and heatwaves remains incomplete due to the complexity of such a relationship mingling with human society, urban and natural environments. Our study extends the Social Ecological Theory by constructing a tri-environmental conceptual framework (i.e., across social, built, and natural environments) and contributes to the first nationwide study of the relationship between heat-vulnerable chronic diseases and heatwaves in Australia. We utilize the random forest regression model to explore the importance of heatwaves and 48 tri-environmental variables that contribute to the prevalence of six types of heat-vulnerable diseases. We further apply the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations and the accumulated local effects analysis to interpret how the heat-disease nexus is mediated through tri-environments and varied across urban and rural space. The overall effect of heatwaves on diseases varies across disease types and geographical contexts (latitudes; inland versus coast). The local heat-disease nexus follows a J-shape function-becoming sharply positive after a certain threshold of heatwaves-reflecting that people with the onset of different diseases have various sensitivity and tolerance to heatwaves. However, such effects are relatively marginal compared to tri-environmental variables. We propose a number of policy implications on reducing urban-rural disparity in healthcare access and service distribution, delineating areas, and identifying the variations of sensitivity to heatwaves across urban/rural space and disease types. Our conceptual framework can be further applied to examine the relationship between other environmental problems and health outcomes.

Improving planetary health is integral to improving children's health-a call to action

IMPACT

This article summarizes the adverse effects of climate and environmental change on children's health. We call for policy change, education, and advocacy to halt further deterioration of planetary health and for specific measures to prevent the negative effects of climate and environmental change on children's health. We offer an agenda for research, policy change, and healthcare practices to improve the resilience of pediatric populations in the face of climate change.

Heat Illness Requiring Emergency Care for People Experiencing Homelessness: A Case Study Series

Extreme heat and hot weather has a negative impact on human health and society. Global warming has resulted in an increase in the frequency and duration of heatwaves. Heat-related illnesses are a significant negative consequence of high temperatures and can be life-threatening medical emergencies. The severity of the symptoms can depend on the pre-existing medical conditions and vary from mild headaches to severe cases that can lead to coma and death. The risk of heat-related illness may be higher for people experiencing homelessness due to a lack of access to cool places and water, and the complex interactions between mental illness, medications and substance use disorder. This paper presents two cases of people experiencing homelessness who were admitted to the emergency department of a hospital in Sydney, Australia during a heatwave in November 2020. Both cases were adult males with known risk factors for heat-related illness including hypertension and schizophrenia (Case One) and hepatitis C, cirrhosis, and alcohol use disorder (Case Two). These cases show that severe weather can not only be detrimental to homeless people's health but can also cause a significant economic toll, evident by the $70,184 AUD expenditure on the care for these two cases. This case report highlights the requirement to determine the risk of heat-related illness to people experiencing homelessness and need to protect this vulnerable population from weather-related illness and death.

Vulnerability of Australia to heatwaves: A systematic review on influencing factors, impacts, and mitigation options

BACKGROUND

Heatwaves have received major attention globally due to their detrimental effects on human health and the environment. The frequency, duration, and severity of heatwaves have increased recently due to changes in climatic conditions, anthropogenic forcing, and rapid urbanization. Australia is highly vulnerable to this hazard. Although there have been an increasing number of studies conducted in Australia related to the heatwave phenomena, a systematic review of heatwave vulnerability has rarely been reported in the literature.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to provide a systematic and overarching review of the different components of heatwave vulnerability (e.g., exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) in Australia.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted using the PRISMA protocol. Peer-reviewed English language articles published between January 2000 and December 2021 were selected using a combination of search keywords in Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed. Articles were critically analyzed based on three specific heatwave vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A total of 107 articles meeting all search criteria were chosen. Although there has been an increasing trend of heat-related studies in Australia, most of these studies have concentrated on exposure and adaptive capacity components. Evidence suggests that the frequency, severity, and duration of heatwaves in Australian cities has been increasing, and that this is likely to continue under current climate change scenarios. This study noted that heatwave vulnerability is associated with geographical and climatic factors, space, time, socioeconomic and demographic factors, as well as the physiological condition of people. Various heat mitigation and adaptation measures implemented around the globe have proven to be efficient in reducing the impacts of heatwaves.

CONCLUSION

This study provides increased clarity regarding the various drivers of heatwave vulnerability in Australia. Such knowledge is crucial in informing extreme heat adaptation and mitigation planning.

Systematic review of the impact of heatwaves on health service demand in Australia

OBJECTIVES

Heatwaves have been linked to increased levels of health service demand in Australia. This systematic literature review aimed to explore health service demand during Australian heatwaves for hospital admissions, emergency department presentations, ambulance call-outs, and risk of mortality.

STUDY DESIGN

A systematic review to explore peer-reviewed heatwave literature published from 2000 to 2020.

DATA SOURCES

Articles were reviewed from six databases (MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, PsychINFO, ProQuest, Science Direct). Search terms included: heatwave, extreme heat, ambulance, emergency department, and hospital. Studies were included if they explored heat for a period of two or more consecutive days. Studies were excluded if they did not define a threshold for extreme heat or if they explored data only from workers compensation claims and major events.

DATA SYNTHESIS

This review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO (# CRD42021227395 ). Forty-five papers were included in the final review following full-text screening. Following a quality assessment using the GRADE approach, data were extracted to a spreadsheet and compared. Significant increases in mortality, as well as hospital, emergency, and ambulance demand, were found across Australia during heatwave periods. Admissions for cardiovascular, renal, respiratory, mental and behavioural conditions exhibited increases during heatwaves. The most vulnerable groups during heatwaves were children (< 18 years) and the elderly (60+).

CONCLUSIONS

Heatwaves in Australia will continue to increase in duration and frequency due to the effects of climate change. Health planning is essential at the community, state, and federal levels to mitigate the impacts of heatwaves on health and health service delivery especially for vulnerable populations. However, understanding the true impact of heatwaves on health service demand is complicated by differing definitions and methodology in the literature. The Excess Heat Factor (EHF) is the preferred approach to defining heatwaves given its consideration of local climate variability and acclimatisation. Future research should explore evidence-based and spatially relevant heatwave prevention programs. An enhanced understanding of heatwave health impacts including service demand will inform the development of such programs which are necessary to promote population and health system resilience.

Elliptical and linear relationships with rumen temperature support a homeorhetic trajectory for DMI during recovery of feedlot cattle exposed to moderate heat load

Most feedlot animals in Australia experience 2 to 3 moderate heat waves during summer. This study aimed to gain understanding of the physiological drivers in response to and during recovery from such events with a view to designing strategies to ensure rapid and safe recovery. Two hypotheses were tested during thermal challenge and recovery in climate-controlled rooms (CCR): firstly, the feedlot steer on a grain-based diet mounts appropriate physiological responses during moderate heat load and in recovery so that its performance and physiology state after recovery is not different to the feed restricted thermoneutral (FRTN) steer. Secondly, commonly used indicators of increased heat load, e.g., respiration rate (RR), panting score (PS), body surface temperatures (ST), and water consumption (WC), reflect rumen temperature (RT) during thermal challenge and recovery at the level of daily means. In this study, 36 Angus steers (live weight (LW) 451.5 ± 22.6 kg) made up 3 cohorts of 12 animals that sequentially underwent the CCR phase. For this 18-d phase, the steers were allocated to either a moderate heat load treatment (thermally challenged, TC, n = 18) or a FRTN treatment (n = 18). The TC group underwent 3 periods, Pre-Challenge (4 d, temperature humidity index (THI) range of 68 to 71), Challenge (7 d, THI 73 to 84 with diurnal cycling), and Recovery (7 d, THI 68 to 71). The FRTN group were held at thermoneutral conditions in the CCR (THI 66.9 ± 0.3), and each animal was offered an amount of feed was based on the feed intake of its LW matched TC pair. Thus, as DMI fell in the TC group during Challenge, feed restriction was imposed on the FRTN group. The data were collected by trained observers were DMI, RT, RR, PS, body STs (forehead, shoulder, leg, rump), and WC. Challenge induced a heat stress response in the TC group with reduced DMI and LW, and elevated RT, RR, PS, body STs, and WC (P < 0.001). These measures were unchanged or reduced in the FRTN group (P < 0.001). At the end of Recovery, the TC and FRTN groups had converged on most measures including LW. Daily mean RT of both groups showed strong linear relationships with THI, RR, PS, head ST, and WC (P ≤ 0.0022) but opposing elliptical relationships with DMI; that is, as DMI fell with increasing RT for the TC group, DMI increased with rising RT for the FRTN group. In all, the feedlot steers in this study demonstrated sufficient homeorhetic capacity to adjust to moderate heat load and recover from it.

The divergence between potential and actual evapotranspiration: An insight from climate, water, and vegetation change

Recently, unprecedented extreme drought has appeared around the world. As the most direct signal of drought, evapotranspiration deserves a more systematic and comprehensive study. Further depicting their divergence of potential (ET_p) and actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) will help to explore the limitation of evapotranspiration. In this paper, the multi-source remote sensing datasets from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on experiment (GRACE-FO), the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during 2002 to 2020 were employed to explore the influence of meteorological, hydrological and botanical factors on ET_p, ET_a and their divergence - reduction of evapotranspiration (E_r) which represents regional vegetation and water limitations. According to the Pearson correlation analysis and the Boruta Algorithm based on Random Forest, the temperature is the first decisive promoter of evapotranspiration in the most area while the sparse vegetation is the primary or second determinant limiting the evapotranspiration in 61.84% of the world. In addition, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) data from 2030 to 2090 and the support vector machine regression (SVMR) model were applied to predict the future global ET_p, ET_a and E_r on the pixel scale. Predicted results of the model considering the water change not only can highly improve the model performance (with higher R²), but also can simulate the drought in Europe and the more intense ET_a in Africa. Thus, E_r proposed in this study provide a good reference for regional ET_a except for ET_p. The future evapotranspiration value derived by introducing the water storage changes into the machine learning model in this study is also valuable for climate change adaptation and drought warning.

Do Incubation Temperatures Affect the Preferred Body Temperatures of Hatchling Velvet Geckos?

In many lizards, a mother’s choice of nest site can influence the thermal and hydric regimes experienced by developing embryos, which in turn can influence key traits putatively linked to fitness, such as body size, learning ability, and locomotor performance. Future increases in nest temperatures predicted under climate warming could potentially influence hatchling traits in many reptiles. In this study, we investigated whether future nest temperatures affected the thermal preferences of hatchling velvet geckos, Amalosia lesueurii. We incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature treatments; the warm treatment mimicked temperatures of currently used communal nests (mean = 24.3°C, range 18.4–31.1°C), while the hot treatment (mean = 28.9°C, range 20.7–38.1°C) mimicked potential temperatures likely to occur during hot summers. We placed hatchlings inside a thermal gradient and measured their preferred body temperatures (Tbs) after they had access to food, and after they had fasted for 5 days. We found that hatchling feeding status significantly affected their preferred Tbs. Hatchlings maintained higher Tbs after feeding (mean = 30.6°C, interquartile range = 29.6–32.0°C) than when they had fasted for 5 d (mean = 25.8°C, interquartile range = 24.7–26.9°C). Surprisingly, we found that incubation temperatures did not influence the thermal preferences of hatchling velvet geckos. Hence, predicting how future changes in nest temperatures will affect reptiles will require a better understanding of how incubation and post-hatchling environments shape hatchling phenotypes.