The role of climate change and vegetation greening on the variation of terrestrial evapotranspiration in northwest China's Qilian Mountains

Environmental Controls on Evapotranspiration and Its Components in a Qinghai Spruce Forest in the Qilian Mountains

Qinghai spruce forests, found in the Qilian mountains, are a typical type of water conservation forest and play an important role in regulating the regional water balance and quantifying the changes and controlling factors for evapotranspiration (ET) and its components, namely, transpiration (T), evaporation (Es) and canopy interceptions (Ei), of the Qinghai spruce, which may provide rich information for improving water resource management. In this study, we partitioned ET based on the assumption that total ET equals the sum of T, Es and Ei, and then we analyzed the environmental controls on ET, T and Es. The results show that, during the main growing seasons of the Qinghai spruce (from May to September) in the Qilian mountains, the total ET values were 353.7 and 325.1 mm in 2019 and 2020, respectively. The monthly dynamics in the daily variations in T/ET and Es/ET showed that T/ET increased until July and gradually decreased afterwards, while Es/ET showed opposite trends and was mainly controlled by the amount of precipitation. Among all the ET components, T always occupied the largest part, while the contribution of Es to ET was minimal. Meanwhile, Ei must be considered when partitioning ET, as it accounts for a certain percentage (greater than one-third) of the total ET values. Combining Pearson's correlation analysis and the boosted regression trees method, we concluded that net radiation (Rn), soil temperature (Ts) and soil water content (SWC) were the main controlling factors for ET. T was mainly determined by the radiation and soil hydrothermic factors (Rn, photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) and TS30), while Es was mostly controlled by the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), atmospheric precipitation (Pa), throughfall (Pt) and air temperature (Ta). Our study may provide further theoretical support to improve our understanding of the responses of ET and its components to surrounding environments.

Discriminating the impacts of vegetation greening and climate change on the changes in evapotranspiration and transpiration fraction over the Yellow River Basin

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a vital parameter in terrestrial water-energy cycles. The transpiration fraction (TF) is defined as the ratio of transpiration (T) to evapotranspiration (ET), representing the contribution rate of vegetation transpiration to ecosystem ET. Quantifying the relative contributions of vegetation and climate change on the ET and TF dynamic is of great significance to better understand the water budget between the land and atmosphere. Here, we chose Yellow River Basin (YRB) as the study area and analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of ET, T, and TF from 1982 to 2015 using the Priestley-Taylor Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PT-JPL) model. Meanwhile, the relative contributions of vegetation and climate change to ET, T and TF change were quantified. Model evaluation showed that the PT-JPL model performs well in the simulation of ET and T. During 1982-2015, the average annual ET, T, and TF increased at a rate of 3.20 mm/a, 0.77 mm/a and 0.003/a over the YRB during 1982-2015, respectively. The regions with significant increases in ET, T and TF almost covered the whole study area except for the upper reaches of the YRB. Vegetation greening was the main factor for the increase of ET and TF in the YRB and enhanced ET and TF at a rate of 0.72 mm/a and 0.57/a, respectively, which mainly observed in the entire Loess Plateau region (over 50 % of the study area). Precipitation (PRE) was also the dominated factor contributing to the increase in ET and TF, and temperature (TEM) showed a positive correlation with the changes in ET and TF in the most areas of YRB, which jointly dominated ET changes in the upper reaches of the YRB and TF changes in the southern part of the basin. Except for the total effects, leaf area index (LAI) also indirectly promoted ET changes by affecting PRE, TEM and relative humidity (RH). While wind speed (WS) and radiation (RAD) had a relatively weak regulatory effect on the changes in ET and TF. These findings were helpful for regional water resources management and formulating water resources-sustainable vegetation restoration strategies for local government.

Quantifying climate variability and regional anthropogenic influence on vegetation dynamics in northwest India

To explore the spatio-temporal dynamics and mechanisms underlying vegetation cover in Haryana State, India, and implications thereof, we obtained MODIS EVI imagery together with CHIRPS rainfall and MODIS LST at annual, seasonal and monthly scales for the period spanning 2000 to 2022. Additionally, MODIS Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), Ground Water Storage (GWS), Soil Moisture (SM) and nighttime light datasets were compiled to explore their spatial relationships with vegetation and other selected environmental parameters. Non-parametric statistics were applied to estimate the magnitude of trends, along with correlation and residual trend analysis to quantify the relative influence of Climate Change (CC) and Human Activities (HA) on vegetation dynamics using Google Earth Engine algorithms. The study reveals regional contrasts in trends that are evidently related to elevation. An annual increasing trend in rainfall (21.3 mm/decade, p < 0.05), together with augmented vegetation cover and slightly cooler (-0.07 °C/decade) LST is revealed in the high-elevation areas. Meanwhile, LST in the plain regions exhibit a warming trend (0.02 °C/decade) and decreased in vegetation and rainfall, accompanied by substantial reductions in GWS and SM related to increased PET. Linear regression demonstrates a strongly significant relationship between rainfall and EVI (R2 = 0.92), although a negative relationship is apparent between LST and vegetation (R2 = -0.83). Additionally, increased LST in the low-elevation parts of the study area impacted PET (R2 = 0.87), which triggered EVI loss (R2 = 0.93). Moreover, increased HA resulted in losses of 25.5 mm GSW and 1.5 mm SM annually. The relative contributions of CC and HA are shown to vary with elevation. At higher elevations, CC and HA contribute respectively 85% and 15% to the increase in EVI. However, at lower elevations, reduced EVI is largely (79%) due to human activities. This needs to be considered in managing the future of vulnerable socio-ecological systems in the state of Haryana.

Effects of climatic conditions and vegetation changes on actual evapotranspiration in Mu Us sandy land

Based on the MOD16A3GF data, spatial regression analysis was conducted to explore the trends of the annual change of AET and the characteristics of its spatial distribution in Mu Us Sandy Land between 2001 and 2020. Combined meteorological data and NDVI data to analyze its effects on AET by trend analysis and correlation coefficient. The results showed that (1) The AET exhibited significant regional differences in Mu Us Sandy Land, with an overall low northwest and high southeast distribution pattern; (2) The AET showed a rapid upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an average rate of change of 5.68 mm·a-1; (3) The correlation coefficient between AET and precipitation was 0.74, and there was no obvious correlation with temperature; (4) AET was consistent with the NDVI spatial distribution and interannual variation curves. Under the combined influence of precipitation and NDVI, AET increased significantly in Mu Us Sandy Land from 2001 to 2020. Precipitation was the main factor affecting climatic conditions of AET, and NDVI was the dominant factor affecting AET in the same period. This provides a theoretical basis and scientific basis for the conservation and protection of ecological water source in Mu Us Sandy Land.

An intra-annual 30-m dataset of small lakes of the Qilian Mountains for the period 1987-2020

Small lakes (areas between 0.01 km² and 1 km²) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are prone to fluctuations in number and area, with serious implications for the surface water storage and water and carbon cycles of this fragile environment. However, there are no detailed long-term datasets of the small lakes of the QTP. Therefore, the intra-annual changes of small lakes in the Qilian Mountains region (QMR) in the northeastern part of the QTP were investigated. The small lake water bodies (SLWB) in the QMR were extracted by improving existing commonly used waterbody extraction algorithms. Using the Google Earth Engine platform and 13,297 Landsat TM/ETM + /OLI images, the SLWB of the QMR were extracted from 1987 to 2020 applying the improved algorithm, cross-validation and manual corrections. The reliability, uncertainty and limitations of the improved algorithm were discussed. An intra-annual small lake dataset for QMR (QMR-SLD) from 1987 to 2020 was released, containing eight attributes: code, perimeter (km), area (km²), latitude and longitude, elevation (m), area error, relative error (%), and subregion.

Predicting inhabitable areas for locust based on field observation and multi-environmental factors in alpine grassland—A case study in the Qilian Mountain National Park, China

Alpine grassland is one of the most critical grassland types in the world, and it is vulnerable and sensitive to external disturbances. The development and outbreak of locust might result in the irreversible degradation. However, most locust studies have been on the tropical, temperate, and desert areas. Our knowledge of inhabitable areas in alpine grassland still needs to be explored. This study was carried out in the alpine grassland in the Qilian Mountain National Park. Environmental factors (remote sensing vegetation index, meteorology, soil, topography, and grassland types) and their impact on locust density were investigated. Finally, the inhabitable areas of locust in the study area were mapped. The results showed that: (1) six out of 26 factors [including precipitation, solar radiation (average and maximum value), normalized vegetation index (NDVI), soil, and temperature] had great influence on locust density, with a relative contribution (RC) more than 10%. (2) Among all locust density estimation models, those based on average and maximum solar radiation, maximum precipitation, maximum NDVI, average temperature, and clay content in deep soil performed better than others, with R ranging from 0.58 to 0.73 and root mean square error ranging from 21.70 to 25.82 head/m2. (3) The areas most suited for locust growth, development, and frequent outbreak were found in the south of Tianjun County, middle and northwest of Qilian County (account for 27% of the study area), while the inhabitability was weak in south of Gangcha County, northwest of Tianjun County, and most of Delingha City. Thus our study clarified the distribution region and occurrence variation of the locust and provided a scientific basis for locust prevention and control in alpine grassland in the Qilian Mountain National Park.

The runoff changes are controlled by combined effects of multiple regional environmental factors in the alpine hilly region of Northwest China

The imbalance between the water supply and demand in arid and semiarid regions is becoming increasingly serious due to global warming and human activities. It is of great significance to reveal the variation characteristics of runoff and its main controlling factors for the sustainable management of regional water resources. However, few previous studies have considered the integrated effects of multiple control factors on runoff variation at different periodic scales. We collected meteorological and hydrological data from 1960 to 2019 in the Huangshui watershed and explored the correlation degree between runoff and regional environment factors such as precipitation (P), potential evaporation (ET₀), mean temperature (T), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The wavelet coherence indicates that there was a high degree of positive phase consistency between runoff changes and P, ET₀, T and NDVI at an approximately 12-month period scale, with lag times of approximately 1, 2, 1 and 0 months, respectively. The P was the single factor most closely related to runoff, and its combined with ET₀ dominated the runoff change during the whole study period. The Budyko frame combined with elastic coefficient analysis showed that the climate change were the main reasons for the increase in annual runoff in change period I (1981-1990), and changes in the underlying surface due to human activities and vegetation variation was the main reason for the decrease in runoff in change period II (1991-2019). The wetter climate brought more rainfall input but this did not make runoff appear an obvious upward trend. Therefore, for alpine regions with sensitive and fragile ecological environment, the balance between human water consumption, vegetation ecological water demand, and precipitation should be weighed. The combination of wavelet coherence analysis and Budyko framework is helpful to better determine the potential driving factors of regional runoff change.

Evaluation of ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets for extreme temperatures in the Qilian Mountains of China

An increase in extreme temperature events could have a significant impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Reanalysis temperature data are an important data set for extreme temperature estimation in mountainous areas with few meteorological stations. The ability of ERA5-Land reanalysis data to capture the extreme temperature index published by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was evaluated by using the observational data from 17 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains (QLM) during 1979–2017. The results show that the ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature data can capture well for the daily maximum temperature, two warm extremes (TXx and TX90p) and one cold extreme (FD0) in the QLM. ERA5-Land’s ability to capture temperature extremes is best in summer and worst in spring and winter. In addition, ERA5-Land can capture trends in all extreme temperature indices except the daily temperature range (DTR). The main bias of ERA5-Land is due to the difference in elevation between the ground observation station and the ERA5-Land grid point. The simulation accuracy of ERA5-Land increases with the decrease of elevation difference. The results can provide a reference for the study of local extreme temperature by using reanalysis data.

Multifaceted responses of vegetation to average and extreme climate change over global drylands

Average climatic events describe the occurrence of weather or climate at an average value, whereas extreme events are defined as events that exceed the upper or lower threshold value of statistical or observational average climatic events. This study investigated the impacts of both average climate change (ACC) (i.e., average precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration [PET]) and extreme climate change (ECC) (i.e., five precipitation and five temperature extremes) on dryland vegetation based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The spatial divergences of ACC and ECC in affecting changes in NDVI over drylands were determined using the geographical detector model. In this study, the growth of vegetation in 40.29 % of global drylands was driven by average precipitation and this dominant effect also occurred in all the plant species, particularly shrubs. However, the sensitivity of grassland to average precipitation exceeded that of most of the woody vegetation. The average temperature and PET controlled 28.64 % and 31.07 % of the changes in NDVI, respectively. Precipitation extremes (except for consecutive dry days and consecutive wet days) and warm temperature extremes (WTE) had positive influences on dryland vegetation, and the effect of WTE on NDVI exceeded that of the remaining temperature extremes. Temperature extremes exerted more significant effects than precipitation extremes for changes in the grassland NDVI. In contrast, the variations in shrub NDVI were primarily dominated by precipitation extremes. We also found that the impacts of parts of average and extreme climatic factors on vegetation had changed over time. Furthermore, temperature extremes had far exceeded the average temperature in affecting vegetation growth at the spatial scale, and this action gradually intensified from 1982 to 2015. The influences of all precipitation extremes were weaker than those of the average precipitation. Those can offer scientific references for ecosystem protection in drylands.

Remote sensing hydrological indication: Responses of hydrological processes to vegetation cover change in mid-latitude mountainous regions

Hydrological processes in mid-latitude mountainous regions are greatly affected by changes in vegetation cover that induced by the climate change. However, studies on hydrological processes in mountainous regions are limited, because of difficulties in building and maintaining basin-wide representative hydrological stations. In this study, a new method, remote sensing technology for monitoring river discharge by combining satellite remote sensing, unmanned aerial vehicles and hydrological surveying, was used for evaluating the runoff processes in the Changbai Mountains, one of the mid-latitude mountainous regions in the eastern part of Northeast China. Based on this method, the impact of vegetation cover change on hydrological processes was revealed by combining the data of hydrological processes, meteorology, and vegetation cover. The results showed a decreasing trend in the monitored river discharge from 2000 to 2021, with an average rate of -5.13 × 10⁵ m³ yr^-1. At the monitoring section mainly influenced by precipitation, the precipitation-induced proportion of changes in river discharge to annual average river discharge and its change significance was only 6.5 % and 0.23, respectively, showing the precipitation change was not the cause for the decrease in river discharge. A negative impact of evapotranspiration on river discharge was found, and the decrease in river discharge was proven to be caused by the increasing evapotranspiration, which was induced by the drastically increased vegetation cover under a warming climate. Our findings suggested that increases in vegetation cover due to climate change could reshape hydrological processes in mid-latitude mountainous regions, leading to an increase in evapotranspiration and a subsequent decrease in river discharge.

Evaluation of the Carbon Sink Capacity of the Proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park

National parks, as an important type of nature protected areas, are the cornerstone that can effectively maintain biodiversity and mitigate global climate change. At present, China is making every effort to build a nature-protection system, with national parks as the main body, and this approach considers China's urgent goals of obtaining carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change. It is of great significance to the national carbon-neutralization strategy to accurately predict the carbon sink capacity of national park ecosystems under the background of global change. To evaluate and predict the dynamics of the carbon sink capacity of national parks under climate change and different management measures, we combined remote-sensing observations, model simulations and scenario analyses to simulate the change in the carbon sink capacity of the proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park ecosystem over the past two decades (2000-2020) and the change in the carbon sink capacity under different zoning controls and various climate change scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Our results show that the carbon sink capacity of the proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park area is increasing. Simultaneously, the carbon sink capacity will be improved with the implementation of park management and control measures; which will be increased by 2.04% to 2.13% by 2060 in the research area under multiple climate change scenarios. The research results provide a scientific basis for the establishment and final boundary determination of the proposed Kunlun Mountain National Park.

Agro-pastoralists' perception of climate change and adaptation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

Global climate change affects all aspects of human society, especially agricultural and animal husbandry production. Northwest China has been detrimentally affected by the climatic variations due to its high exposure to extreme climatic events. A number of studies have reported agro-pastoralists’ perceptions and adaptation responses to climate change, but the current knowledge of agro-pastoralists’ perceptions of climate change in China are insufficient. To fill this research gap, this study aims to investigate the perception level of agro-pastoralists in Northwest China on climate change and related factors. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire based on household surveys of 554 study participants in four counties in Gansu Province, China. Raw data were collected using stratified random sampling. A probit model was used to analyze the respondents' understanding of climate change and its related socio-economic and demographic variables. Our results show that the majority of respondents were aware (70%) of the changes in temperature and precipitation. Socioeconomic and demographic variables such as gender, farming experience, education level, cultivated land size, agricultural income, livestock, village cadre experience, access to weather information of agro-pastoralists are pertinently related to agro-pastoralists’ awareness of climate change. Farming experience, education level, household size, grassland size, agricultural income, association membership, village cadre experience has a high impact on agro-pastoralists' adaptation to climate change. The results of this study will help guide government agencies and decision makers, and help arid and semi-arid areas to build sustainable adaptation measures under the framework of climate change. The study recommends institutions targeting households’ livelihood improvement and making decisions concerning climate change adaptation need to focus on mass media and information technology, improving locally adapted extension services, improved irrigation, expand loan channels.

Effects of land use and land cover change on soil organic carbon storage in the Hexi regions, Northwest China

Soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in arid inland regions is significantly affected by land use and land cover change (LUCC) associated with climate change and agricultural activities. A systematic evaluation to the LUCC effects on SOC storage could enable us to better manage soil carbon pools in arid inland regions. Here, we evaluated the effects of LUCC on SOC storage in the Hexi Regions based on high-resolution SOC and LUCC maps derived from Landsat imagery and digital soil mapping using machine learning algorithm and environmental covariates. The results showed that SOC generally increased from northwest to southeast over the Hexi Regions with an average stock of 7.15 kg C m^-2 at a soil depth of 100 cm and a total storage of 2783.05 Tg C. The SOC stock and storage in the Qilian Mountains (mountains) was about 3.90 and 4.55 times higher than that in the Hexi Corridor (plains), respectively. It was estimated that LUCC over the past four decades caused a net increase of 23.41 and 18.19 Tg C in total SOC storage for the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor, respectively. Specifically, the development in grasslands quality as well as the land-use category conversion from the bare land to grassland mainly contributed to the increase in SOC storage of the Qilian Mountains, where the LUCC was mainly driven by climate change. By contrast, the SOC storage change in the Hexi Corridor was mainly associated with the conversion from sandy land and low-cover grassland to cropland as well as sandy land to grassland, being mainly affected by intense cropland expansion and desertification control. Our results highlighted the importance of climate change and cropland expansion in enhancing SOC storage of the Qilian Mountains and Hexi corridor, respectively.

Temperature Change Characteristics in Gansu Province of China

The applicability of reanalysis data has been widely addressed in climate and hydrology studies over the past two decades. In this study, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations in ERA-Interim temperature data from four climate zones within Gansu Province from 1979 to 2017 by using linear regression model and Mann-Kendall mutation test. Results showed that: (1) The highest temperature was found in the subtropical monsoon climate zone, and the lowest in the plateau mountain climate zone. Temperatures in high-elevation regions were lower than those in low-elevation regions; (2) The annual mean temperature increased across Gansu Province from 1979 to 2017. The lowest warming rates of annual mean, annual maximum, and annual minimum temperatures were found in the subtropical monsoon climate zone, and these were 0.334, 0.300, and 0.336 °C/10a, respectively. The highest warming rates of annual mean and annual minimum temperature were found in the temperate monsoon climate zone, and these were 0.420 and 0.464 °C/10a, respectively. The highest warming rate of annual maximum temperature was found in the temperate continental climate zone (0.471 °C/10a); (3) The Mann-Kendall analysis showed that the mutation times of annual mean temperature of the subtropical monsoon, temperate monsoon, and temperate continental climate zones in Gansu Province were all in 1997. The mutation times of annual maximum temperature were found in the subtropical monsoon climate zone (1997) and temperate monsoon climate zone (1997). The mutation times of annual minimum temperature were found in the temperate continental climate zone (1997) and plateau mountain climate zone (1994). ERA-Interim reanalysis data are reliable for capturing mutation time of temperature, especially in the high-elevation areas with rare meteorological station. This study can provide a reference when analyzing climate change at different climatic zones using reanalysis data.

Seasonal Variation of Vegetation and Its Spatiotemporal Response to Climatic Factors in the Qilian Mountains, China

The purpose of this study is to reveal the seasonal difference in vegetation variation and its seasonal response to climate factors in the Qilian Mountains (QM) under the background of global warming. Based on the MOD13 A2 normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and meteorological data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and stability of vegetation in different seasons by using the mean value method, trend analysis and stability analysis method, and discussed their seasonal responses to climatic factors based on the correlation analysis method. The results show that the vegetation cover in the QM experienced a significant upward trend in the past 21 years, but there were obvious spatial differences in vegetation change in different seasons. The growth rate of vegetation in summer was the fastest, and summer vegetation provided the most significant contribution to the growing season vegetation. The order of vegetation stability in the QM among the seasons was growing season > summer > spring > autumn. The vegetation change was obviously affected by temperature in spring, while it was mainly controlled by precipitation in the growing season and summer. The response of vegetation to climatic factors was not significant in autumn. Our results can provide important data support for ecological protection in the QM and socioeconomic development in the Hexi Corridor.

Terrestrial water storage regime and its change in the endorheic Tibetan Plateau

Analogous to flow regime, this study proposed a new statistical framework to assess inter-annual and intra-annual terrestrial water storage (TWS) regime and its changes from the aspects of magnitude, variability, duration and components. The framework was applied to two endorheic basins, Inner Basin (IB) and Qaidam Basin (QB), in the Tibetan Plateau and their eight sub-regions. Our major findings are as follows: (1) TWS in the IB (2.09-2.35 mm/a, P < 0.05) and QB (0.05-0.52 mm/a, P > 0.1) increased in all seasons from 1989 to 2019 with regional climate warming and wetting. TWS showed high increase rates (>4.50 mm/a, P < 0.05) in northeastern IB but decrease rates (<-0.90 mm/a) in southern IB. Seasonal total storage in groundwater, lake, permafrost and glacier (GLPIA) also increased in both the IB (2.55-2.68 mm/a, P < 0.05) and QB (0.05-0.43 mm/a). Seasonal soil water storage (SWA) decreased in the IB (-0.39 to -0.26 mm/a) and slightly increased in the QB (0.002-0.08 mm/a); (2) Intra-annual TWS followed approximately a cosine curve. After mutation, monthly TWS showed a higher positive magnitude change (>50 mm), accompanied by a longer duration and higher variability in the IB and its northeastern sub-regions. There was a large reduction in low storage (-18.25 mm) combined with higher variability in southeastern IB; (3) SWA change dominated the storage surplus in summer (82%) and storage deficit in autumn (-78%) and winter (-51%) in the IB, while GLPIA change dominated the storage surplus in spring (57%). In the QB, TWS change was mainly contributed by SWA change in spring (94%) and by GLPIA change in summer (73%), autumn (-62%) and winter (-58%). Component contribution rates showed a significant change in spring and winter but not much change in summer and autumn, indicating that the TWS components were more sensitive to climate change in the cold season.

Attributing the Evapotranspiration Trend in the Upper and Middle Reaches of Yellow River Basin Using Global Evapotranspiration Products

Climate variation and underlying surface dynamics have caused a significant change in the trend of evapotranspiration (ET) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) over the last two decades. Combined with the measured rainfall, runoff and gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) product, five global ET products were firstly merged using a linear weighting method. Linear slope, “two-step” multiple regression, partial differential, and residual methods were then employed to explore the quantitative impacts of precipitation (PCPN), temperature (Temp), sunshine duration (SD), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), wind speed (WS), leaf area index (LAI), and the residual factors (e.g., microtopography changes, irrigation, etc.) on the ET trend in the YRB. The results show that: (1) The ET estimates were improved by merging five global ET products using the linear weighting method. The sensitivities of climatic factors and LAI on the ET trend can be separately calculated using proposed “two-step” statistical regression method; (2) the overall ET trend in the entire study area during 2000–2018 was 3.82 mm/yr, and the highest ET trend was observed in the Toudaoguai-Longmen subregion. ET trend was dominantly driven by vegetation greening, with an impact of 2.47 mm/yr and a relative impact rate of 51.16%. The results indicated that the relative impact rate of the residual factors (e.g., microtopography, irrigation, etc.) on the ET trend is up to 28.17%. The PCPN and VPD had increasing roles on the ET trend, with impacts of 0.45 mm/yr and 0.05 mm/yr, respectively, whereas the Temp, SD, and WS had decreasing impacts of –0.19 mm/yr, –0.15 mm/yr, and –0.17 mm/yr, respectively. (3) The spatial pattern of impact of specific influencing factor on the ET trend was determined by the spatial pattern of change trend slope of this factor and sensitivity of ET to this factor. ET trends of the source area and the Qingtongxia–Toudaoguai were dominated by the climatic factors, while the residual factors dominated the ET trend in the Tangnaihai–Qingtongxia area. The vegetation restoration was the dominant factor causing the increase in the ET in the middle reaches of the YRB, and the impact rates of the LAI were ranked as follows: Yanhe Rive > Wudinghe River > Fenhe River > Jinghe River > Beiluohe River > Qinhe River > Kuyehe River > Yiluohe River.

Effect of Elevation on Variation in Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in Northwest China

Through its effects on water and energy cycles, elevation plays an important role in modulating the spatial distribution of climatic changes in mountainous regions. A key hydrological indicator, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) reflects the maximum amount of water transferred to the atmosphere from the land surface. The current scarcity of information regarding elevation’s impact on variation in ET0 under climate change limits our understanding of the extent to which elevation modulates interactions between ET0 and climate change and of the attendant processes involved. Drawing upon long-term (1960–2017) meteorological observations from 84 stations in Northwest China (NWC), we examined (i) spatial and temporal variations in ET0; (ii) the sensitivity and contribution of air temperature (T), sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) to ET0; (iii) the existence of a relationship between elevation and ET0 trends; and (iv) the major factor in controlling this relationship by using attribution analysis. Overall, annual ET0 in NWC showed a declining trend between 1960 and 2017, though at a change point in 1993, the trend shifted from a decline to a rise. A significant correlation between temporal change in ET0 and elevation confirmed the existence of a relationship between elevation and ET0 variation. The effect of elevation on changes in ET0 depended mainly on the elevation-based tradeoff between the contributions of T and WS: WS was the primary factor contributing to the decrease in ET0 below 2000 m, and T was the dominant factor contributing to the increase of ET0 above 2000 m. The rate of reduction in WS declined as elevation increased, thereby diminishing its contribution to variation in ET0. The present study’s results can serve to guide agricultural irrigation in different elevation zones under NWC’s evolving climatic conditions.

Contributions of Vegetation Greening and Climate Change to Evapotranspiration Trend after Large-Scale Vegetation Restoration on the Loess Plateau, China

Since the early 2000s, the vegetation cover of the Loess Plateau (LP) has increased significantly, which has been fully recorded. However, the effects on relevant eco-hydrological processes are still unclear. Here, we made an investigation on the changes of actual evapotranspiration (ETa) during 2000–2018 and connected them with vegetation greening and climate change in the LP, based on the remote sensing data with correlation and attribution analysis. Results identified that the average annual ETa on the LP exhibited an obvious increasing trend with the value of 9.11 mm yr−1, and the annual ETa trend was dominated by the changes of ETa in the third quarter (July, August, and September). The future trend of ETa was predicted by the Hurst exponent. Partial correlation analysis indicated that annual ETa variations in 87.8% regions of the LP were controlled by vegetation greening. Multiple regression analysis suggested that the relative contributions of potential evapotranspiration (ETp), precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), to the trend of ETa were 5.7%, −26.3%, and 61.4%, separately. Vegetation greening has a close relationship with the Grain for Green (GFG) project and acts as an essential driver for the long-term development trend of water consumption on the LP. In this research, the potential conflicts of water demanding between the natural ecosystem and social-economic system in the LP were highlighted, which were caused by the fast vegetation expansion.