Climate and land-use change impacts on spatiotemporal variations in groundwater recharge: A case study of the Bangkok Area, Thailand

Spatio-temporal variability of public water supply characteristics and associated health hazards for children and adults in selected locations of Ambala, India

The contamination of public water supply and groundwater resources is a major concern in many parts of developing nations. Polluted water poses serious health risks to humans and the environment. This research was conducted to investigate the seasonal variations of the water quality parameters in the public water supply. To assess the supply water quality in different blocks of Ambala District, hydro-chemical analysis was conducted after a series of systematic sampling in various locations. The statistical tools for water quality indexing including water quality indexing (WQI), heavy metal pollution indexing (HMPI), pollution indexing (PI), overall pollution indexing (OPI), metal indexing (MI), and hazard indexing (HI) were used for data as well as the health hazard analysis through water pathway. Overall, 40 water samples were taken from the public water supply systems covering winter and summer seasons, and the levels of pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), EC, F- , Cl- , NO3 - , SO4 2- , HCO3 - , As, B, Cd, Co, Pb, Zn, Cr, Fe, and Mn were investigated. The weight arithmetic index method was used for WQI, and water pollution indices such as HMPI, PI, OPI, and MI were calculated using different models to check the severity of contamination. The mean hazard quotient and hazard index values calculated using the concentration levels of As, B, Cd, Co, Pb, Cr, Fe, Mn, Zn, F- , and NO3 - reveal that supply water may pose a significant health risk to both adults and children that further varies with temporal and spatial changes. During both seasons, a high carcinogenic risk for both adults and children was observed in the studied area because of high levels of As, Pb, Cd, and NO3 - . PRACTITIONER POINTS: The quality of public supply water was assessed at the selected sites of Ambala, India. High levels of NO3 - , As, Cd, and Pb were observed posing a health risk to adults and children via water pathway. 95% of the samples qualified for the excellent water quality category with respect to the levels of F- , Cl- , NO3 - , SO4 2- , HCO3 - , pH, EC, and TDS. Statistical analysis (HMPI, PI, MI, OPI, HI) using different models revealed water contamination with reference to the levels of NO3 - , As, Pb, Cr, Ni, and Cd. Immediate measures are needed to uphold the safety and health of the natives.

Lapse rate-adjusted bias correction for CMIP6 GCM precipitation data: An application to the Monsoon Asia Region

Bias correction (BC) of General Circulation Models (GCMs) variables is a common practice when it is being used for climate impact assessment studies at regional scales. The present study proposes a bias correction method (LR-Reg) that first adjusts the original GCM precipitation for local lapse rate corrections and later bias corrects the lapse rate-adjusted GCMs precipitation data with linear regression coefficients. We evaluated LR-Reg BC method in comparison to Linear Scaling (LS) and Quantile Mapping (QMap) BC methods, and NASA's downscaled NEX data for Monsoon Asia region. This study used Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-based MIROC6 GCM precipitation with historical and projected shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) datasets. The BC comparison results show that the relative percentage reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) values of LR-Reg over LS-BC was up to 10-30% while this relative reduction in MAE values of LR-Reg was 30-50% over QMap-BC and 75-100% over NASA's NEX-data. The future projected precipitation over Monsoon Asia during dry season shows more decreased precipitation by up to 100% mostly in the south Asia while during wet season shows more increased precipitation by up to 50% mostly in the northeastern China and in the Himalayan belts with respect to the baseline condition (1970-2005). The results on the average precipitation per 0.25 degree increase in latitude analysis shows that the maximums of average monsoon precipitation during baseline period occur at 0 and 25 degree latitudes while the projected monsoon precipitation during both SSP scenarios occurs at 10 and 20 degree latitudes which clearly shows an inward shift in the latitude axis for the projected precipitation in the Monsoon Asia.

Hysteresis response of groundwater depth on the influencing factors using an explainable learning model framework with Shapley values

Machine learning has been widely used for groundwater prediction. However, the hysteresis response of groundwater depth (GD) to input features has not been fully investigated. This study uses an interpretation method to reveal the interplay between climate, human activity, and GD while considering the response of groundwater to multiple factors. Six factors [precipitation (P), wind speed (WS), temperature (T), population (POP), gross domestic product (GDP), and effective irrigated area (EIA)] were selected to analyze the hysteresis response of GD in terms of the lag correlation coefficient and lag time. The correlation between climatic variables and GD was weaker than that of anthropogenic variables. The lag time between variables and different types of GD was less than four months at most sites, except for EIA and WS in deep groundwater. The SVM model achieved satisfactory performance in 89 % of the sites. If there were sharp changes in GD during the testing period or significant variations in its seasonal patterns at different times, the SVM model performed poorly. The model was interpreted using the Shapley additive explanation method. The impact of POP and GDP on deep groundwater in irrigated areas was higher than that of shallow groundwater. In urban areas with intensive human activities, anthropogenic variables were the main factors affecting shallow groundwater while the impact of climate was gradually increasing in the suburbs. The influence of precipitation on shallow groundwater was decreased after water transfer from the South-to-North Water Diversion project. Furthermore, this study proposed a multifactor-driven conceptual model that can provide recommendations for analyzing groundwater dynamics in similar areas.

Impact of land-use dynamics and climate change scenarios on Groundwater recharge in the case of Anger watershed, Ethiopia

An assessment of land use dynamics and climate variability impacts on hydrological processes is vital and a prerequisite for effective water resources management. This study aimed to quantify the effect of land-use changes and long-term climate variability on the Anger watershed's annual groundwater recharge, which covers a total drainage area of 7717 km2. The WetSpass (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere under quasi-Steady State) model was used to investigate the impact of land cover and climate variability on groundwater. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of the climate variables in the watershed. Input data for the model, such as land use, hydro-meteorological data, soil texture, topography, and groundwater elevation parameters, were prepared in the form of gridded maps with a 30 m resolution. The model results indicate that land-use change and climate variability considerably impact distributed groundwater recharges. Groundwater recharge decreased with land use in 2000 and 2019, respectively, as compared to baseline land usage (1985). The study also demonstrates how the anticipated future combination of less precipitation and higher temperatures has a detrimental effect on the watershed's annual average groundwater recharge. Future rising temperatures and reduced precipitation are projected to result in an average annual groundwater recharge showing significant decreases in 2050, 2080, and 2110, respectively, according to scenario-based models. The result has provided valuable information on the management and response of groundwater recharge to climate and land-use changes, particularly for the Anger watershed and for the total country as well.

Groundwater quality for irrigation in an arid region-application of fuzzy logic techniques

Groundwater is the main source to answer the irrigation supply in several arid and semi-arid areas. In the present work, groundwater quality for irrigation purposes in the arid region of Menzel Habib (Tunisia) for thirty-six groundwater samples is assessed considering the application of different conventional water quality indicators, particularly, electrical conductivity (EC), sodium absorption ratio (SAR), soluble sodium percentage (SSP), magnesium adsorption ratio (MAR), Kelly ratio (KR), and permeability index (PI). The results obtained indicate a variability for EC: 3.06 to 14.98 mS.cm^-1; SAR: 4.08 to 19.30; SSP: 35.78 to 71.53%; MAR: 34.19 to 56.01; PI: 38.47 to 72.74; and KR: 0.56 to 2.47. These results suggest that groundwater from Menzel Habib aquifer system is classified between excellent to unsuitable according to the applied water quality indices. Furthermore, the groundwater samples are also plotted in the Richards diagram classification system, based on the relation between SAR and EC, suggesting that almost groundwater samples present a harmful quality. Moreover, fuzzy logic model has been proposed and created to assess groundwater quality for irrigation. The membership functions are constructed for six significant parameters such as EC, SAR, SSP, MAR, KR, and PI and the rules are, then, fired to get a simple Fuzzy Irrigation Water Quality Index (FIWQI). The obtained groundwater quality results suggest that 3% of the samples from Menzel Habib region are considered as "good" for irrigation, 3% are classified as "good to permissible", 33% with a "permissible" quality, 36% "permissible to unsuitable", while 25% of groundwater present an "unsuitable" quality. Thus, the use of fuzzy logic techniques has more reliable and robust results by overcoming the uncertainties in the decision-making attributed to the conventional methods by the creation of new classes (excellent to good, good to permissible, and permissible to unsuitable) in addition to the classes proposed by Richards diagram classification (excellent, good, permissible, and unsuitable) to assess the groundwater quality suitability for irrigation purposes.

Effects of landscape conservation on the ecohydrological and water quality functions and services and their driving factors

Since the implementation of landscape conservation of the green heart area in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Metropolitan Region, the landscape structure and pattern have changed significantly. The ecosystem service functions in the area have been improved, but the status of ecohydrological and water quality and service functions (EHWQSFs) is still unclear. To clarify the status of EHWQSFs and their driving factors influenced by landscape conservation, this study analysed landscape changes using remote sensing image data from 1998, 2008, and 2018 and the changes and their spatial characteristics using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and spatial analysis methods. The results showed that the dominant land types in the area were forestland and cropland from 1998 to 2018; the area of forestland and construction land expanded and that of cropland decreased year by year; the annual average surface runoff volume rose, and the annual average actual evapotranspiration and soil water content fell from 1998 to 2008 and rose from 2008 to 2018; and all pollutant indicators decreased significantly after 2008. The areas with higher surface runoff were mainly concentrated in the central and southern regions, those with higher evapotranspiration were in the northwestern and southwestern regions, those with higher soil water content were in the northern region, and those with higher sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus pollutant contents were in the central and southeastern regions. The results showed that land use, land cover and meteorological factors were the most significant drivers on EHWQSFs and illustrated that EHWQSFs in the area decreased after 1998. There was a significant improvement after 2008 and the area currently has a good status. This study not only provides insights into land use, land cover and meteorological factors that have significant impacts on EHWQSFs but also highlights that the landscape conservation of the area can improve ecosystem service functions.

Potential impact of diversion canals and retention areas as climate change adaptation measures on flood risk reduction: A hydrological modelling case study from the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

The countries of Southeast Asia are projected to experience severe flood damage and economic impacts from climate change, compared with the global average. Hence adaptation by incorporating infrastructures is essential, but it has been seldom explicitly included in the simulations projecting climate change impacts on flood risk in these countries. Quantifying the effects of infrastructure is the key to climate change impact and adaptation assessment. Therefore, this study was conducted in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand to examine the adaptation potential of (i) existing structural and non-structural measures that include reservoir and diversion dams, diversion canals, and water retention areas, and (ii) the combined adaptation measures, a combination of alterations made to the existing diversion canals and retention areas, on reducing future floods using the H08 global hydrological model (GHM). The results revealed that the impact of existing measures on the future flood reduction was smaller than the increase caused by warming in the CPRB. Conversely, the combined adaptation measures successfully mitigated the effect of warming by redirecting nearly 50 % of the diverted river flow to the ocean and storing 30 % of the diverted flow in the retention areas. Although a remarkable reduction was noted in the basin-wide flood risk, the effect of adaptation measures greatly varied across the basin. The combined adaptation measures largely reduced the number of flooding days by close to 100 at many of the considered stations within the basin, except for extreme flood events (historical 1-percentile flood events). This further reveals that the feasibility of adaptation measures in alleviating the extreme future floods will be limited in flood-vulnerable basins and thus require area-based prioritization for flood management. The modelling framework implemented in this study can be easily adapted to different GHMs and regions and should be examined for their applicability.

Predicting Potential Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Nitrate Pollution and Risk in an Intensely Cultivated Area of South Asia

One of the potential impacts of climate change is enhanced groundwater contamination by geogenic and anthropogenic contaminants. Such impacts should be most evident in areas with high land-use change footprint. Here, we provide a novel documentation of the impact on groundwater nitrate (GW_NO3 ) pollution with and without climate change in one of the most intensely groundwater-irrigated areas of South Asia (northwest India) as a consequence of changes in land use and agricultural practices at present and predicted future times. We assessed the probabilistic risk of GW_NO3 pollution considering climate changes under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2040, using a machine learning (Random Forest) framework. We also evaluated variations in GW_NO3 distribution against a no climate change (NCC) scenario considering 2020 status quo climate conditions. The climate change projections showed that the annual temperatures would rise under both RCPs. The precipitation is predicted to rise by 5% under RCP 8.5 by 2040, while it would decline under RCP 4.5. The predicted scenarios indicate that the areas at high risk of GW_NO3 pollution will increase to 49 and 50% in 2030 and 66 and 65% in 2040 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. These predictions are higher compared to the NCC condition (43% in 2030 and 60% in 2040). However, the areas at high risk can decrease significantly by 2040 with restricted fertilizer usage, especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The risk maps identified the central, south, and southeastern parts of the study area to be at persistent high risk of GW_NO3 pollution. The outcomes show that the climate factors may impose a significant influence on the GW_NO3 pollution, and if fertilizer inputs and land uses are not managed properly, future climate change scenarios can critically impact the groundwater quality in highly agrarian areas.

The impact of land use and land cover change on groundwater recharge in northwestern Bangladesh

Groundwater recharge is affected by various anthropogenic activities, land use and land cover (LULC) change among these. The long-term temporal and seasonal changes in LULC have a substantial influence on groundwater flow dynamics. Therefore, assessment of the impacts of LULC changes on recharge is necessary for the sustainable management of groundwater resources. The objective of this study is to examine the effects of LULC changes on groundwater recharge in the northwestern part of Bangladesh. Spatially distributed monthly groundwater recharge was simulated using a semi-physically based water balance model. Long-term temporal LULC change analysis was conducted using LULC maps from 2006 to 2016, while wet and dry LULC maps were used to examine seasonal changes. The results show that the impervious built-up area has increased by 80.3%, whereas vegetated land cover has decreased by 16.4% over the study period. As a result, groundwater recharge in 2016 has decreased compared to the level seen in 2006. However, the decrease in recharge due to long-term temporal LULC changes is very small at the basin scale (2.6 mm/year), although the impact on regional level is larger (17.1 mm/year) due to urbanization. Seasonal LULC variations also affect recharge due to the higher potential for dry seasonal LULC compared to the wet seasonal LULC, a substantial difference (20.6 mm/year). The results reveal important information about the groundwater system and its response to land cover changes in northwestern Bangladesh.

Assessing the future climate change, land use change, and abstraction impacts on groundwater resources in the Tak Special Economic Zone, Thailand

Groundwater is an important source of water supply in the Tak Special Economic Zone of Thailand. However, groundwater is under stress from climate change, land use change, and an increase in abstraction, affecting the groundwater level and its sustainability. Therefore, this study analyses the impact of these combined stresses on groundwater resources in the near, mid, and far future. Three Global Climate Models are used to project the future climate under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the results, both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to show similar increasing trends for both scenarios, with a rise of approximately 1 (1.5), 2 (3), and 3 (5) °C expected for SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) in each consecutive period. Annual rainfall is expected to continually increase in the future, with around 1500-1600 mm in rainfall (11ꟷ5.43% higher). Land use change is predicted for two scenarios: business as usual (BU) and rapid urbanisation (RU). The forest area is expected to increase to 30% (35%) coverage in 2090 for BU (RU) while agriculture is likely to reduce to 60% (50%) with the urban area increasing to 2.4% (7%). Water demand is predicted to increase in all future scenarios. The SWAT model is used to project recharge, which is likely to increase by 10-20% over time. The highest increase is predicted in the far future under SSP2 and RU scenarios. MODFLOW was used to project future groundwater resources, but due to the lack of consistent data, the time scale is reduced to yearly simulation. The results reveal that the groundwater level is expected to increase in the central part (urban area) of the study area and decrease along the boundary (agricultural area) of the aquifer. This research can aid policymakers and decision-makers in understanding the impact of multiple stressors and formulating adaptation strategies to manage groundwater resources in special economic zones.

Impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater recharge under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case of Siem Reap, Cambodia

The rapid pace of urbanization blended with climate change has significantly altered surface and groundwater flows. In the context of tourism-driven economic potential areas, these drivers have greater effects, including threatening groundwater availability. This study assessed the combined impacts of climate and land use changes on the groundwater recharge (GWR) in Siem Reap, Cambodia utilizing Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs), DynaCLUE land-use model, and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three climate models CanESM5, EC_Earth3, and MIROC6, out of seven, best captured the observed data after performance evaluation through the entropy method, were bias-corrected linearly for two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) - SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results indicate a general increase in precipitation under both SSPs, while the average annual maximum temperature is likely to increase by 0.024 °C/year and 0.049 °C/year under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. A similar trend but relatively higher increase is expected for the minimum temperature. Furthermore, the historical land use change showed the expansion of urban settlement by 373% between 2004 and 2019 at the expense of forest and shrubland. Future land use projections from the DynaCLUE model show that the urban settlements in the study area are likely to expand, from their 2019 condition, by 55% in 2030, 209% in 2060, and 369% in 2090 under SSP2 and at double of these rates under SSP5 scenario. The GWR is expected to rise by 39-53% during the wet season and decrease by 13-29% during the dry season under both scenarios. Meanwhile, under constant land use, the GWR is likely to increase more compared to other scenarios, highlighting the importance of land use planning to policymakers and planners. Additionally, the study shall also be important to practitioners and researchers in understanding, planning, and evaluating the performance of multiple climate models in groundwater assessment.

Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China

Evaluating the impacts of land-use change (LUC) on ecosystem services (ESs) is necessary for regional sustainable development, especially for the farming–pastoral ecotone of northern China (FPENC), an ecologically sensitive and fragile region. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LUC on the ESs and provide valuable information for regional planning and management in the FPENC. To accomplish this, we assessed LUC in the FPENC from 2010 to 2020 and simulated land-use patterns in 2030 under three plausible scenarios: the business as usual scenario (BAUS), economic development scenario (EDS), and ecological protection scenario (EPS). Then, we quantified five ESs (including crop production, water yield, soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage) for 2020–2030 and analyzed the trade-offs and synergies among ESs in all scenarios. The results show that FPENC experienced expanding farming land and built-up land throughout 2010–2020. Under the BAUS and EDS from 2000 to 2030, especially EDS, the increase in farming land and built-up land will continue. As a result, crop production and water yield will increase, while soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage will decrease. In contrast, EPS will increase soil retention, water purification, and carbon storage at the cost of a decline in crop production and water yield. These results can provide effective reference information for future regional planning and management in the farming–pastoral ecotone.

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Ecosystem Service Value in Airport Economic Zones in China

With the rapid development of the aviation industry, many negative effects on the local environment have been reported. This study examined the land use and land cover (LULC) and ecosystem service value (ESV) of airport economic zones (AEZs) in China and assessed the changes in LULC and ESV. The results indicate that LULC changed significantly from 1990 to 2015, characterized by the increase in construction land (increase rate, 68.53%) and water bodies (increase rate, 2.32%) and the decrease in cropland (decrease rate, 4.28%), forest (decrease rate, 0.73%), grassland (decrease rate, 4.64%) and unused land (decrease rate, 6.36%). The ESV of AEZs in 1990 and 2015 was RMB 3454 and 3483 million, respectively, with an overall ESV change of RMB 29 million. The ESV of AEZs is characterized by high value in the coastal area of China. From 1990 to 2015, AEZs with a high ESV were located in Inner Mongolia, while those with a high decrease in ESV were located in the southeastern coastal area. From 1990 to 2000, the AEZs with a high increase in ESV were located in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai and the AEZs with decreased ESV were mostly located in central and south China. However, from 2000 to 2010, AEZs with high and low increases in ESV were located in central China and the south coastal area of China, respectively. From 2010 to 2015, AEZs with a high decrease in ESV were located in southeast China.