Is climate change threatening or beneficial to the habitat distribution of global pangolin species? Evidence from species distribution modeling

Climate Change and Human Pressure: Assessing the Vulnerability of Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) Habitat Integrated With Prey Distribution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Climate change is significantly altering the distribution of large carnivores and their primary prey species, with particular emphasis on the changing prey distribution in high-altitude regions. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known for its rich biodiversity, is highly sensitive to climate change, affecting the habitats of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur). Our study identified blue sheep as the primary prey of snow leopards through metagenomic analysis and used bioclimatic data and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) information to model habitat suitability under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). Projections showed that under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, snow leopard habitats will decrease by 13.0% and 23.4%, while blue sheep habitats will decrease by 38.3% and 49.7%, respectively. These habitats are expected to shift to higher altitudes, with snow leopards experiencing a more significant shift. Based on these findings, we recommend adjusting protected area boundaries for S1 (Ideal distribution range), establishing ecological corridors for S2 (stepping stone), and implementing targeted measures to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts in S3 (potential conflict area). To protect these species, international efforts to reduce carbon emissions, cross-administrative cooperation, and community-based conservation strategies are essential.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on three Glires pests of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

BACKGROUND

The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).

RESULTS

The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50 years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.

CONCLUSION

These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

The effects of intraspecific variation on forecasts of species range shifts under climate change

As global climate change is altering the distribution range of macroalgae across the globe, it is critical to assess its impact on species range shifts to inform the biodiversity conservation of macroalgae. Latitude/environmental gradients could cause intraspecific variability, which may result in distinct responses to climate change. It remains unclear whether geographical variation occurs in the response of species' populations to climate change. We tested this assumption using the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii, a habitat-forming macroalgae encompassing multiple divergent lineages along the Northwest Pacific. Previous studies revealed a distinct lineage of S. thunbergii in rear-edge populations. Given the phylogeographic structure and temperature gradients, we divided these populations into the southern and northern groups. We assessed the physiological responses of the two groups to temperature changes and estimated their niche differences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. A higher photosynthetic rate and antioxidative abilities were detected in the southern group of S. thunbergii than in the northern group. In addition, significant niche differentiation was detected between the two groups, suggesting the possibility for local adaptation. Given these results, we inferred that the southern group (rear-edge populations) may be more resilient to climate change. To examine climate-driven range shifts of S. thunbergii, we constructed species- and lineage-level species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions of both levels showed considerable distribution contracts along the Chinese coasts in the future. For the southern group, the lineage-level model predicted less habitat loss than the species-level model. Our results highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation in climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal species.

Local chronicles reveal the effect of anthropogenic and climatic impacts on local extinctions of Chinese pangolins (Manis pentadactyla) in mainland China

Anthropogenic and climatic factors affect the survival of animal species. Chinese pangolin is a critically endangered species, and identifying which variables lead to local extinction events is essential for conservation management. Local chronicles in China serve as long-term monitoring data, providing a perspective to disentangle the roles of human impacts and climate changes in local extinctions. Therefore, we established generalized additive models to identify factors leading to local extinction with historical data from 1700-2000 AD in mainland China. Then we decreased the time scale and constructed extinction risk models using MaxEnt in a 30-year transect (1970-2000 AD) to further assess extinction probability of extant Chinese pangolin populations. Lastly, we used principal component analysis to assess variation of related anthropogenic and climatic variables. Our results showed that the extinction probability increased with global warming and human population growth. An extinction risk assessment indicated that the population and distribution range of Chinese pangolins had been persistently shrinking in response to highly intensive human activities (main cause) and climate change. PCA results indicated that variability of climatic variables is greater than anthropogenic variables. Overall, the factors causing local extinctions are intensive human interference and drastic climatic fluctuations which induced by the effect of global warming. Approximately 28.10% of extant Chinese pangolins populations are confronted with a notable extinction risk (0.37 ≤ extinction probability≤0.93), specifically those in Southeast China, including Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Hunan and Fujian Provinces. To rescue this critically endangered species, we suggest strengthening field investigations, identifying the exact distribution range and population density of Chinese pangolins and further optimizing the network of nature reserves to improve conservation coverage on the landscape scale and alleviate human interference. Conservation practices that concentrate on the viability assessment of scattered populations could help to improve restoration strategies of the Chinese pangolin.

The effect of climate change on Arcto-Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution

Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto-Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981-2010), and future (2040-2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3-7.0 & SSP 5-8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high-impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north-facing slopes. For isolated and difficult-to-access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict-tree species, which deserve further conservation.