Universal Climate Thermal Index as a prognostic tool in medical science in the context of climate change: A systematic review

Impact of seasonal biometeorological conditions and particulate matter on asthma and COPD hospital admissions

Climate change and air pollution are pressing public health concerns, necessitating monitoring of their impact, particularly on respiratory diseases like obstructive lung diseases. This retrospective study analyzed medical records of patients hospitalized at the Warmia and Mazury Centre for Pulmonary Diseases in Olsztyn, Poland (2012-2021) for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Data included meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and levels of PM2.5 and PM10. The Humidex was utilized to assess thermal discomfort, considering various meteorological and thermal seasons. Findings indicated seasonal variability in asthma and COPD exacerbations. During winter, poorer air quality due to higher PM2.5 and PM10 levels correlated with increased exacerbations (r = 0.283, p < 0.05; r = 0.491, p < 0.001). In summer, discomfort from meteorological conditions led to more hospital admissions. Humidex values strongly correlated with admissions for obstructive diseases (R2 = 0.956 for asthma; R2 = 0.659 for COPD), with July and August showing statistically higher admission rates (p < 0.05). The study highlights the significant impact of air pollution and meteorological conditions on exacerbations of asthma and COPD, with Humidex serving as a valuable predictor during summer months.

Extreme Heat Stress and Unplanned Hospital Admissions

OBJECTIVES

The burden and health impact of heat stress on child hospitalization is limited. This study aims to investigate associations between extreme heat stress exposure based on a Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), emergency department (ED) visits, and ED visits that translate into unplanned hospital admissions.

METHODS

This population-based case-crossover study included all ED visits and unplanned hospital admissions among children and adolescents aged 0 to 18 years from New South Wales, Australia, from July 2001 to June 2020. Heat stress was measured by heatwave days defined as 2 consecutive days or more with daily maximum UTCI in the 95th percentile or higher. Distributed lag nonlinear regression models with a quasi-Poisson distribution were applied, and the relative risks from the models were presented.

RESULTS

Totals of 8 240 170 ED visits and 1 427 736 unplanned hospital admissions were recorded. Compared with nonheatwave days, heatwave days were associated with an increased risk of ED visits and hospital admissions due to infectious diseases and infectious enteritis by 5% to 17% and heat-related illness by 78% to 104%. Findings were consistent for subgroup analyses. Children aged younger than 1 year and those from the most disadvantaged areas were more vulnerable to heat-related illness on heatwave days. Effects on hospitalization were attenuated using ambient temperature only.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of the effectiveness of UTCI to more completely demonstrate the harmful impact of extreme heat stress on increased infection and heat-related hospitalizations among children, which were not fully captured by using ambient temperature alone. Findings can inform targeted area-based strategies, particularly among vulnerable groups to mitigate the effects of extreme heat events.

Cardiovascular morbidity risk attributable to thermal stress: analysis of emergency ambulance dispatch data from Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND

Climate change has raised scientific interest in examining the associations of weather conditions with adverse health effects, while most studies determined human thermal stress using ambient air temperature rather than the thermophysiological index.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the association between emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) related to cardiovascular causes and heat/cold stress in Shenzhen, a city in southern China, with the aim of providing new insights for local policymakers.

METHODS

A time series analysis using ambulance dispatch data of cardiovascular diseases in Shenzhen, China (2013-2019) was conducted. A quasi-Poisson nonlinear distributed lag model was applied to explore the relationship between emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) due to cardiovascular causes and thermal stress (determined by Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI). Attributable fractions were estimated to identify which UTCI ranges have a greater health impact.

RESULTS

The relationship between UTCI and EADs due to cardiovascular diseases exhibits a reverse J-shaped curve. The effects of cold stress were immediate and long-lasting, whereas the effects of heat stress were non-significant. Compared with the optimal equivalent temperature (71st percentile of UTCI, 29.22 °C), the relative risks for cumulative (0-21 days) exposures to cold stress (1st percentile, - 0.13 °C; 5th percentile, 7.68 °C) were 1.55 (95%CI:1.28,1.88) and 1.44 (95%CI:1.22,1.69), respectively. Thermal (cold and heat) stress was responsible for 10.81% (95%eCI: 5.67%,15.43%) of EADs for cardiovascular diseases, with 9.46% (95%eCI: 3.98%,14.40%) attributed to moderate cold stress (2.5th ~ 71st percentile). Greater susceptibility to cold stress was observed for males and the elderly. Heat stress showed harmful effects in the warm season.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated that cold exposure elevates the risk of EADs for cardiovascular causes in Shenzhen, and moderate cold stress cause the highest burden of ambulance dispatches. Health authorities should consider effective adaptation strategies and interventions responding to cold stress to reduce the morbidity of cardiovascular diseases.

Effect of heat stress in the first 1000 days of life on fetal and infant growth: a secondary analysis of the ENID randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The intersecting crises of climate change, food insecurity, and undernutrition disproportionately affect children. Understanding the effect of heat on growth from conception to 2 years of age is important because of mortality and morbidity implications in the near term and over the life course.

METHODS

In this secondary analysis, we used longitudinal pregnancy cohort data from the Early Nutrition and Immunity Development (ENID) randomised controlled trial in West Kiang, The Gambia, which occurred between Jan 20, 2010, and Feb 10, 2015. The ENID trial assessed micronutrient supplementation in the first 1000 days of life starting from 20 weeks' gestation, during which anthropometric measurements were collected prospectively. We used multivariable linear regression to assess the effect of heat stress (defined by Universal Thermal Climate Index [UTCI]) on intrauterine growth restriction based on length-for-gestational age Z score (LGAZ), weight-for-gestational age Z score (WGAZ), and head circumference-for-gestational age Z score (HCGAZ) at birth, and assessed for effect modification of supplement intervention on the relationship between heat stress and infant anthropometry. We used multivariable, multilevel linear regression to evaluate the effect of heat stress on infant growth postnatally based on weight-for-height Z score (WHZ), weight-for-age Z score (WAZ), and height-for-age Z score (HAZ) from 0 to 2 years of age.

FINDINGS

Complete data were available for 668 livebirth outcomes (329 [49%] female infants and 339 [51%] male infants). With each 1°C increase in mean daily maximum UTCI exposure, in the first trimester, we observed a reduction in WGAZ (-0·04 [95% CI -0·09 to 0·00]), whereas in the third trimester, we observed an increase in HCGAZ (0·06 [95% CI 0·00 to 0·12]), although 95% CIs included 0. Maternal protein-energy supplementation in the third trimester was associated with reduced WGAZ (-0·16 [-0·30 to -0·02]) with each 1°C increase in mean daily maximum UTCI exposure, while no effect of heat stress on WGAZ was found with either standard care (iron and folate) or multiple micronutrient supplementation. For the postnatal analysis, complete anthropometric data at 2 years were available for 645 infants (316 [49%] female infants and 329 [51%] male infants). Postnatally, heat stress effect varied by infant age, with infants aged 6-18 months being the most affected. In infants aged 12 months exposed to a mean daily UTCI of 30°C (preceding 90-day period) versus 25°C UTCI, we observed reductions in mean WHZ (-0·43 [95% CI -0·57 to -0·29]) and mean WAZ (-0·35 [95% CI -0·45 to -0·26]). We observed a marginal increase in HAZ with increasing heat stress exposure at age 6 months, but no effect at older ages.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest that heat stress impacts prenatal and postnatal growth up to 2 years of age but sensitivity might vary by age. In the context of a rapidly warming planet, these findings could have short-term and long-term health effects for the individual, and immediate and future implications for public child health.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Comparison of sinonasal symptoms in upper respiratory tract infections during the infectious diseases season of November 2023 to March 2024-a cross-sectional study

Introduction

Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) are among the most common reasons for patients consulting a general practitioner (GP) during the infectious diseases season, with viruses being the predominant cause. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted GPs' perception of these infections. The pandemic's progression, especially with the emergence of the Omicron variant, has complicated the diagnosis and treatment of URTIs, with evolving symptoms.

Aim

The aim of this study was to assess the differences in symptoms reported by patients with various infections, such as COVID-19, influenza, common cold, and post-viral rhinosinusitis, during the infectious diseases season of November 2023 to March 2024.

Materials and methods

The study was conducted in a primary health care clinic, providing care for a population of approximately 10,000 people, among adult patients presenting with URTI symptoms during the 2023/2024 infectious diseases season. Patients qualified for the study were swabbed for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A and B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) antigens. Symptoms were assessed with the use of a semi-structured questionnaire.

Results

Of the 1810 patients presenting with symptoms of URTIs, 276 patients were included in the study. Among patients with COVID-19, symptoms of nasal obstruction (p = 0.005) and nasal discharge (p = 0.001) were less common than in those with influenza or common cold. However, these nasal symptoms were significantly more frequent among patients with COVID-19 who had confirmed previous immunization (COVID-19 history or vaccination) (p = 0.028).

Conclusion

The incidence of individual sinonasal symptoms varies significantly depending on the aetiological agent of the URTI. This observation may not only help clinicians make the correct diagnosis, but also suggests an inflammatory response in the nasal mucosa and paranasal sinuses that is dependent on the aetiological agent. The study also indicates that this response is altered within the same virus species following immunization.

Limitations

The study's limitations include a small sample size (276 patients), focus on one season and one GP practice, and reliance on clinical signs and antigen tests. Nonetheless, the findings provide valuable insights. Further research with larger patient groups and extended follow-up periods is required to confirm these findings.

Maternal exposure to bioclimatic stress and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in Western Australia: identifying potential critical windows of susceptibility

The anthropogenic climate change may impact pregnancy outcomes. Rather than ambient temperature, we aimed to use a composite bioclimatic metric (Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) to identify critical susceptible windows for the associations between bioclimatic exposure and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs) risk. Daily UTCI exposure from 12 weeks of preconception through pregnancy was linked to 415,091 singleton pregnancies between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2015 in Western Australia. Adjusted weekly-specific and cumulative odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of gestational hypertension and preeclampsia were estimated with distributed lag non-linear and standard non-linear logistic regressions. Exposures from early pregnancy to week 30 were associated with greater odds of HDPs with critical susceptible windows, particularly elevated at the 1st (10.2 °C) and 99th (26.0 °C) exposure centiles as compared to the median (14.2 °C). The most elevated ORs were 1.07 (95% CI 1.06, 1.08) in weeks 8-18 for gestational hypertension and 1.10 (95% CI 1.08, 1.11) in weeks 11-16 for preeclampsia for the 99th exposure centile. Cumulative exposures associated with HDPs with relatively higher but less precise ORs. The effects of high exposure to HDPs indicated sociodemographic inequalities. The identified critical periods and subpopulations could benefit from climate-related interventions.

Maternal exposure to ambient air temperature and adverse birth outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Multiple systematic reviews on prenatal ambient temperature and adverse birth outcomes exist, but the overall epidemiological evidence and the appropriate metric for thermal stress remain unclear. An umbrella review was performed to summarise and appraise the evidence with recommendations.

METHODS

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the associations between ambient temperature and adverse birth outcomes (preterm birth, stillbirth, birth weight, low birth weight, and small for gestational age) up to December 20, 2023, were synthesised according to a published protocol. Databases PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, MEDLINE/Ovid, EMBASE/Ovid, Web of Science Core Collection, systematic reviews repositories, electronic grey literature, and references were searched. Risk of bias was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute's critical appraisal tool.

RESULTS

Eleven systematic reviews, including two meta-analyses, were included. This comprised 90 distinct observational studies that employed multiple temperature assessment metrics with a very high overlap of primary studies. Primary studies were mostly from the United States while both Africa and South Asia contributed only three studies. A majority (7 out of 11) of the systematic reviews were rated as moderate risk of bias. All systematic reviews indicated that maternal exposures to both extremely high and low temperatures, particularly during late gestation are associated with increased risks of preterm birth, stillbirth, and reduced fetal growth. However, due to great differences in the exposure assessments, high heterogeneity, imprecision, and methodological limitations of the included systematic reviews, the overall epidemiological evidence was classified as probable evidence of causation. No study assessed biothermal metrics for thermal stress.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the notable methodological differences, prenatal exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, particularly during late pregnancy, was associated with adverse birth outcomes. Adhering to the appropriate systematic review guidelines for environmental health research, incorporating biothermal metrics into exposure assessment, evidence from broader geodemographic settings, and interventions are recommended in future studies.

Heat and cold stress increases the risk of paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia

Paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT) is a common arrhythmia in adults. Its occurrence depends on the presence of the reentry circuit and the trigger of the paroxysm. Stress, emotional factors, and comorbidities favour the occurrence of such an episode. We hypothesized that the occurrence of PSVT follows extreme thermal episodes. The retrospective analysis was based on the data collected from three hospital emergency departments in Poland (Olsztyn, Radom, and Wroclaw) involving 816 admissions for PSVT in the period of 2016-2021. To test the hypothesis, we applied the Universal Climate Thermal Index (UTCI) to objectively determine exposure to cold or heat stress. The risk (RR) for PSVT increased to 1.37 (p = 0.006) in cold stress and 1.24 (p = 0.05) in heat stress when compared to thermoneutral conditions. The likelihood of PSVT during cold/heat stress is higher in women (RR = 1.59, p< 0.001 and RR = 1.36, p = 0.024, respectively) than in men (RR = 0.64 at p = 0.088 and RR = 0.78, p = 0.083, respectively). The susceptibility for PSVT was even higher in all groups of women after exclusion of perimenopausal group of women, in thermal stress (RR = 1.74, p< 0.001, RR = 1.56, p = 0.029, respectively). Females, particularly at the perimenopausal stage and men irrespective of age were less likely to develop PSVT under thermal stress as compared to thermoneutral conditions. Progress in climate change requires searching for universal methods and tools to monitor relationships between humans and climate. Our paper confirms that the UTCI is the universal tool describing the impact of thermal stress on the human body and its high usefulness in medical researches.

Thermal environment and indices: an analysis for effectiveness in operational weather applications in a Mediterranean city (Athens, Greece)

The large number of thermal indices introduced in the literature poses a challenge to identify the appropriate one for a given application. The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of widely used indices in quantifying the thermal environment for operational weather applications within a Mediterranean climate. Eight indices (six simple and two thermo-physiological) were considered, i.e., apparent temperature, heat index, humidex, net effective temperature (NET), physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), universal thermal climate index (UTCI), wet-bulb globe temperature, and wind chill temperature. They were estimated using hourly meteorological data between 2010 and 2021, recorded in 15 stations from the Automatic Weather Station Network of the National Observatory of Athens in the Athens metropolitan area, Greece. The statistical analysis focused on examining indices' sensitivity to variations of the thermal environment. NET, PET, and UTCI were evaluated as suitable for operational use, assessing both cool and warm environments, and extending their estimations to the entire range of their assessment scales. NET and PET often tended to classify thermal perception in the negative categories of their scales, with 63% of NET and 56% of PET estimations falling within the range of cool/slightly cool to very cold. UTCI estimations in the negative categories accounted for 25.8% (p < 0.001), while most estimations were classified in the neutral category (53.1%). The common occasions of extreme warm conditions in terms of both air temperature (Tair) and NET was 77.7%, Tair and UTCI 64.4%, and Tair and PET 33.6% (p < 0.001). According to the indices considered and the method followed, NET and UTCI satisfied sufficiently the requirements for operational use in the climate conditions of the Mediterranean climate.

Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the subtropics

Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 years were more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.

Critical Windows of Maternal Exposure to Biothermal Stress and Birth Weight for Gestational Age in Western Australia

BACKGROUND

There is limited and inconsistent evidence on the risk of ambient temperature on small for gestational age (SGA) and there are no known related studies for large for gestational age (LGA). In addition, previous studies used temperature rather than a biothermal metric.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to examine the associations and critical susceptible windows of maternal exposure to a biothermal metric [Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)] and the hazards of SGA and LGA.

METHODS

We linked 385,337 singleton term births between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2015 in Western Australia to daily spatiotemporal UTCI. Distributed lag nonlinear models with Cox regression and multiple models were used to investigate maternal exposure to UTCI from 12 weeks preconception to birth and the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of SGA and LGA.

RESULTS

Relative to the median exposure, weekly and monthly specific exposures showed potential critical windows of susceptibility for SGA and LGA at extreme exposures, especially during late gestational periods. Monthly exposure showed strong positive associations from the 6th to the 10th gestational months with the highest hazard of 13% for SGA (HR = 1.13 ; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.14) and 7% for LGA (HR = 1.07 ; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.11) at the 10th month for the 1st UTCI centile. Entire pregnancy exposures showed the strongest hazards of 11% for SGA (HR = 1.11 ; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) and 3% for LGA (HR = 1.03 ; 95% CI: 0.95, 1.11) at the 99th UTCI centile. By trimesters, the highest hazards were found during the second and first trimesters for SGA and LGA, respectively, at the 99th UTCI centile. Based on estimated interaction effects, male births, mothers who were non-Caucasian, smokers, ≥ 35 years of age, and rural residents were most vulnerable.

CONCLUSIONS

Both weekly and monthly specific extreme biothermal stress exposures showed potential critical susceptible windows of SGA and LGA during late gestational periods with disproportionate sociodemographic vulnerabilities. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12660.

Universal thermal climate index in the Arctic in an era of climate change: Alaska and Chukotka as a case study

The modern unambiguous climate change reveals in a rapid increase of air temperature, which is more distinctly expressed in the Arctic than in any other part of the world, affecting people health and well-being. The main objective of the current research is to explore the inter- and intra-annual changes in thermal stress for people in the Arctic, specifically for two parts of Beringia: Alaska, USA, and Chukotka, Russia, using climatology of the universal thermal climate index (UTCI). Data for 39 locations are taken from the ERA5-HEAT reanalysis for the period 1979-2020. Climatologically, the study area is divided into four subregions in Alaska: North, Interior, West and South, and two in Chukotka: Interior and Coast. The extreme coldest UTCI categories (1 and 2) are most common in coastal locations of northern Alaska and Chukotka, where strong winds exacerbate the low temperatures during winter. The results show that the frequency of category 1 (UTCI<-40°C) varies spatially from a quarter of all hours annually in Alaska North to almost zero in Alaska South. On the other hand, the warmest categories are rarely reached almost everywhere in Alaska and Chukotka, and even categories 7 and 8 (UTCI between +26 and +38°C) are found occasionally only at interior locations. Category 6 with no thermal stress (UTCI between +9 and+26°C) has frequencies up to 3% and 25% in Alaska North and Interior, respectively. The extremely cold thermal stress frequencies have substantially decreased over the 1979-2020 period, especially in Alaska North and Chukotka Coast. At the same time, the number of hours with UTCI in the comfortable category of thermal perception has increased depending on subregion, from 25 to 203 h/year. Overall, a decrease in the UTCI categories of extremely cold stress is coupled with an increase in the comfortable range in both Alaska and Chukotka. The salient conclusion is that, from the point of view of comfort and safety, global warming has a positive impact on the climatology of thermal stress in the Arctic, providing advantages for the development of tourism and recreation.

The Concept of One Health for Allergic Diseases and Asthma

The worldwide prevalence of allergic disease is rising as a result of complex gene-environment interactions that shape the immune system and host response. Climate change and loss of biodiversity are existential threats to humans, animals, plants, and ecosystems. While there is significant progress in the development of targeted therapeutic options to treat allergies and asthma, these approaches are inadequate to meet the challenges faced by climate change. The exposomic approach is needed with the recognition of the bidirectional effect between human beings and the environment. All stakeholders need to work together toward mitigating the effects of climate change and promoting a One Health concept in order to decrease the burden of asthma and allergy and to improve immune health. Healthcare professionals should strive to incorporate One Health counseling, environmental health precepts, and advocacy into their practice.

Prenatal exposure to long-term heat stress and stillbirth in Ghana: A within-space time-series analysis

INTRODUCTION

Few studies examined the association between prenatal long-term ambient temperature exposure and stillbirth and fewer still from developing countries. Rather than ambient temperature, we used a human thermophysiological index, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) to investigate the role of long-term heat stress exposure on stillbirth in Ghana.

METHODS

District-level monthly UTCI was linked with 90,532 stillbirths of 5,961,328 births across all 260 local districts between 1^st January 2012 and 31^st December 2020. A within-space time-series design was applied with distributed lag nonlinear models and conditional quasi-Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The mean (28.5 ± 2.1 °C) and median UTCI (28.8 °C) indicated moderate heat stress. The Relative Risks (RRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) for exposure to lower-moderate heat (1st to 25th percentiles of UTCI) and strong heat (99th percentile) stresses showed lower risks, relative to the median UTCI. The higher-moderate heat stress exposures (75th and 90th percentiles) showed greater risks which increased with the duration of heat stress exposures and were stronger in the 90th percentile. The risk ranged from 2% (RR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.99, 1.05) to 18% (RR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.02, 1.36) for the 90th percentile, relative to the median UTCI. Assuming causality, 19 (95% CI 3, 37) and 27 (95% CI 3, 54) excess stillbirths per 10,000 births were attributable to long-term exposure to the 90th percentile relative to median UTCI for the past six and nine months, respectively. Districts with low population density, low gross domestic product, and low air pollution which collectively defined rural districts were at higher risk as compared to those in the high level (urban districts).

DISCUSSION

Maternal exposure to long-term heat stress was associated with a greater risk of stillbirth. Climate change-resilient interventional measures to reduce maternal exposure to heat stress, particularly in rural areas may help lower the risk of stillbirth.

Global Population Exposure to Extreme Temperatures and Disease Burden

The frequency and duration of extreme temperature events continues to increase worldwide. However, the scale of population exposure and its quantitative relationship with health risks remains unknown on a global scale, limiting our ability to identify policy priorities in response to climate change. Based on data from 171 countries between 2010 and 2019, this study estimated the exposure of vulnerable populations to extreme temperatures, and their contemporary and lag associations with disease burden attributed to non-optimal temperatures. Fixed-effects models and dynamic panel models were applied. Increased vulnerable population exposure to extreme temperatures had adverse contemporary effects on the burden of disease attributed to non-optimal temperature. Health risks stemming from extreme cold could accumulate to a greater extent, exhibiting a larger lag effect. Population exposure to extreme cold was mainly distributed in high-income countries, while extreme heat occurred more in low-income and middle-income countries. However, the association between population exposure to extreme cold and burden of disease was much stronger in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, whereas the effect size of population exposure to extreme heat was similar. Our study highlighted that differential strategies should be determined and implemented according to the characteristics in different countries.

Prenatal acute thermophysiological stress and spontaneous preterm birth in Western Australia, 2000-2015: A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis

Epidemiologic evidence on acute heat and cold stress and preterm birth (PTB) is inconsistent and based on ambient temperature rather than a thermophysiological index. The aim of this study was to use a spatiotemporal thermophysiological index (Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) to investigate prenatal acute heat and cold stress exposures and spontaneous PTB. We conducted a space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis of 15,576 singleton live births with spontaneous PTB between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2015 in Western Australia. The association between UTCI and spontaneous PTB was examined with distributed lag nonlinear models and conditional quasi-Poisson regression. Relative to the median UTCI, there was negligible evidence for associations at the lower range of exposures (1st to 25th percentiles). We found positive associations in the 95th and 99th percentiles, which increased with increasing days of heat stress in the first week of delivery. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the immediate (delivery day) and cumulative short-term (up to six preceding days) exposures to heat stress (99th percentile, 31.2 °C) relative to no thermal stress (median UTCI, 13.8 °C) were 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.06), respectively. Elevated effect estimates for heat stress were observed for the transition season, the year 2005-2009, male infants, women who smoked, unmarried, ≤ 19 years old, non-Caucasians, and high socioeconomic status. Effect estimates for cold stress (1st percentile, 0.7 °C) were highest in the transition season, during 2005-2009, and for married, non-Caucasian, and high socioeconomic status women. Acute heat stress was associated with an elevated risk of spontaneous PTB with sociodemographic vulnerability. Cold stress was associated with risk in a few vulnerable subgroups. Awareness and mitigation strategies such as hydration, reducing outdoor activities, affordable heating and cooling systems, and climate change governance may be beneficial. Further studies with the UTCI are required.

Maternal acute thermophysiological stress and stillbirth in Western Australia, 2000-2015: A space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis

BACKGROUND

The extreme thermal environment driven by climate change disrupts thermoregulation in pregnant women and may threaten the survival of the developing fetus.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the acute effect of maternal exposure to thermophysiological stress (measured with Universal Thermal Climate Index, UTCI) on the risk of stillbirth and modification of this effect by sociodemographic disparities.

METHODS

We conducted a space-time-stratified case-crossover analysis of daily UTCI and 2835 singleton stillbirths between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2015 across multiple small areas in Western Australia. Distributed lag non-linear models were combined with conditional quasi-Poisson regression to investigate the effects of the UTCI exposure from the preceding 6 days to the day of stillbirth. We also explored effect modification by fetal and maternal sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

The median UTCI was 13.9 °C (representing no thermal stress) while the 1st and 99th percentiles were 0.7 °C (slight cold stress) and 31.7 °C (moderate heat stress), respectively. Relative to median UTCI, we found positive associations between acute maternal cold and heat stresses and higher risks of stillbirth, increasing with the intensity and duration of the thermal stress episodes. The cumulative risk from the preceding 6 days to the day of stillbirth was stronger in the 99th percentile (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.21) than the 1st percentile (RR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.15), relative to the median UTCI. The risks were disproportionately higher in term and male stillborn fetuses, smoking, unmarried, ≤19 years old, non-Caucasian, and low socioeconomic status mothers.

DISCUSSION

Acute maternal exposure to both cold and heat stresses may contribute to the risk of stillbirth and be exacerbated by sociodemographic disparities. The findings suggest public health attention, especially for the identified higher-risk groups. Future studies should consider the use of a human thermophysiological index, rather than surrogates such as ambient temperature.