Dynamic variations of terrestrial ecological drought and propagation analysis with meteorological drought across the mainland China

Ecological drought sensitivity assessment of winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain, China

Drought events are complex and uncertain, and drought sensitivity assessments are beneficial for ecological conservation and improving early warning mechanisms. Understanding ecosystems' response to drought is vital for ecological conservation and climate change research. Ecological drought, a concept describing drought from an ecosystem perspective, lacks sufficient research regarding its effects on agricultural ecosystems, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. This study identifies ecological drought using a three-dimensional clustering method and examines its spatiotemporal patterns. By developing the Winter Wheat Ecological Drought Sensitivity Index (EDSIWW), it quantifies the impact of drought on winter wheat and employs machine learning models to assess environmental factors influencing this relationship. Findings show that 26 ecological drought events occurred between 2000 and 2022, predominantly in autumn and winter, with an average duration of 132 days, affecting over 80% of the study area. These events coincided with winter wheat's growth cycle, significantly impacting its gross primary production, followed by solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, leaf area index, and near-infrared reflectance. Environmental factors like land surface temperature, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit exhibited complex influences on wheat's sensitivity to drought. This research offers new insights into the drought-wheat relationship and provides scientific guidance for agricultural management and drought prevention.

Relationships among vegetation restoration, drought and hydropower generation in the karst and non-karst regions of Southwest China over the past two decades

To curb the intensification of desertification, China has implemented a series of measures to control rocky desertification. However, the interaction between vegetation restoration and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has complicated the drought situation in Southwest China. Therefore, in this study, the vegetation health index (VHI) was used to analyze the spatiotemporal variations in drought. Additionally, the fractional vegetation cover (FVC), VHI, vegetation condition index (VCI), and temperature condition index (TCI) were compared between karst and non-karst regions. Additionally, the driving factors of drought and the response of hydropower generation (HG) to drought conditions were explored. The results revealed that (1) after the implementation of measures to combat desertification, the FVC and VHI increased annually by 0.37 % and 0.801, respectively, from 2002 to 2022. In Southwest China, the increase rates of the VCI and TCI were 1.993 and 0.349 yr-1, respectively, with VCI increase as a key factor in enhancing the VHI. (2) VHI improvement in karst regions was significantly greater than that in non-karst areas, indicating effective rocky desertification control efforts. (3) The geodetector analysis results indicated that the topography is the primary factor influencing the spatial distribution of drought in Southwest China, followed by climatic factors. (4) During drought occurrence, the gap between HG and the total electricity consumption in Southwest China increased, leading to increases in fossil fuel-based power generation and pollutant emissions.

Three-dimensional ecological drought identification and evaluation method considering eco-physiological status of terrestrial ecosystems

Ecological drought is a complex process in terrestrial ecosystems where vegetation's eco-physiological functions are impaired due to water stress. However, there is currently a lack of long-term assessment of ecological drought from an eco-physiological perspective. In this study, the standardized ecological drought index (SESNDI) was developed using actual evaporation, root soil moisture, and kernel normalized difference vegetation index via the Euclidean distance method, reflecting ecosystem physiology, water supply capacity, and vegetation status. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence validated SESNDI by reflecting vegetation photosynthesis. Using China as an example, severely impacted by climate change and ecological restoration, ecological drought's spatio-temporal variation and propagation characteristics was evaluated using clustering algorithms. The results demonstrated that (1) SESNDI showed superior performance over several other drought indices. (2) During 1982-2020, ecological drought was prevalent from 1990 to 2010, especially in the central and northeastern regions. (3) Compared to 1982-2000, the median duration and affected area of ecological drought events during 2001-2020 reduced by four months and 1.51 × 105 km2, respectively, while the median intensity increased by 0.06. (4) Decreased precipitation and increased temperature were the primary factors contributing to the frequent occurrence of ecological drought in China from 1990 to 2010. This study offers a crucial methodology for evaluating ecological drought, serving as a reference for developing effective terrestrial restoration strategies.

Characteristics of flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes in China: Observations and model simulations

Flash droughts have gained considerable public attention due to the imminent threats they pose to food security, ecological safety, and human health. Currently, there has been little research exploring the projected changes in flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes (CMEs). In this study, we applied the pentad-mean water deficit index to investigate the characteristics of flash droughts and their association with CMEs based on observational data and downscaled model simulations. Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in flash drought frequency in China based on historical observations and model simulations. Specifically, the proportion of flash drought frequency with a one-pentad onset time showed a consistent upward trend, with the southern parts of China experiencing a high average proportion during the historical period. Furthermore, the onset dates of the first (last) flash droughts during year are projected to shift earlier (later) in a warmer world. Flash droughts become significantly more frequent in the future, with a growth rate approximately 1.3 times higher in the high emission scenario than in the medium emission scenario. The frequency of flash droughts with a one-pentad onset time also exhibits a significant upward trend, indicating that flash droughts will occur more rapidly in the future. CMEs in southern regions of China were found to be more likely to trigger flash droughts in the historical period. The probability of CMEs triggering flash droughts is expected to increase with the magnitude of warming, particularly in the far-future under the high emissions scenario.