Ecological analysis and environmental niche modelling of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo: A conservation approach for critically endangered medicinal orchid

Predicting potential distribution and range dynamics of Aquilegia fragrans under climate change: insights from ensemble species distribution modelling

Climate change is one of the primary causes of species redistribution and biodiversity loss, especially for threatened and endemic important plant species. Therefore, it is vital to comprehend "how" and "where" priority medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) might be effectively used to address conservation-related issues under rapid climate change. In the present study, an ensemble modelling approach was used to investigate the present and future distribution patterns of Aquilegia fragrans Benth. under climate change in the entire spectrum of Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. The results of the current study revealed that, under current climatic conditions, the northwest states of India (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and the northern part of Uttarakhand), the eastern and southern parts of Pakistan Himalaya have highly suitable climatic conditions for the growth of A. fragrans. The ensemble model exhibited high forecast accuracy, with temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality as the main climatic variables responsible for the distribution of the A. fragrans in the biodiversity hotspot. Furthermore, the study predicted that future climate change scenarios will diminish habitat suitability for the species by -46.9% under RCP4.5 2050 and -55.0% under RCP4.5 2070. Likewise, under RCP8.5, the habitat suitability will decrease by -51.7% in 2050 and -94.3% in 2070. The current study also revealed that the western Himalayan area will show the most habitat loss. Some currently unsuitable regions, such as the northern Himalayan regions of Pakistan, will become more suitable under climate change scenarios. Hopefully, the current approach may provide a robust technique and showcases a model with learnings for predicting cultivation hotspots and developing scientifically sound conservation plans for this endangered medicinal plant in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot.

Ecological niche modeling to find potential habitats of Vanda thwaitesii, a notified endangered orchid of Western Ghats, India

Conservation planning of a threatened species essentially requires information on its present population and extent of distribution. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a suitable machine learning technique to predict potential distribution of a species enabling to identify suitable habitat for conservation action. The present study undertook distribution modeling of Vanda thwaitesii, a notified endangered orchid species of the Indian Western Ghats and Sri Lanka using maxent software. Geographical coordinates of 54 occurrence points at 1 km resolutions gathered during the study were utilized for modeling. A total of 37 variables including bioclimatic, topographical, and seasonal climate subjected to principal component analysis extracted into three components based on temperature and precipitation. Four representative variables from each component in all possible combinations resulted consistent output showing distribution of the species extending from Gavi in Periyar Tiger Reserve of Kerala to Chikkamagalur of Karnataka. Habitat suitability was confined to the cooler regions receiving an average 3,400 mm annual mean precipitation, 22.70C annual mean temperature, and 290 mm summer precipitation. A total of 2,557 km2 in Kerala and Karnataka mostly outside protected forests demonstrated as the highly suitable habitats. Silent Valley National Park, Idukki Wildlife Sanctuary, Periyar Tiger Reserve, and Brahmagiri Wildlife Sanctuary in addition to a few reserve forests hold sufficient area for reinforcement of diversity of V. thwaitesii from vulnerable locations. The present study revealed niche modeling as a useful tool to find suitable habitats for V. thwaitesii in the Western Ghats.

New and Noteworthy Taxa of the Genus Dactylorhiza Necker ex Nevski (Orchidaceae Juss.) in Kazakhstan Flora and Its Response to Global Warming

A critical study of the herbarium material representing the orchid genus Dactylorhiza Necker ex Nevski in Kazakhstan was conducted in 2019–2020. The information on the species composition was clarified. Dactylorhiza fuchsii subsp. hebridensis (Wilmott) Soó and D. × kerneri (Soó) Soó were identified for the first time in the country. New taxa were noted for individual botanical and geographical areas. All taxa were presented in the list and annotated with studied herbarium materials from the Kazakhstan area. Based on the collected and available locations for the studied taxa, distribution modeling was carried out for the four taxa (D. incarnata, D. majalis subsp. baltica, D. salina, and D. umbrosa). Bioclimatic data for the present and future (2041–2060) based on four possible scenarios were used. The occurrence of Dactylorhiza representatives in Kazakhstan is threatened by global climate warming. It is likely that some of them may not occur in the country in the future (D. incarnata and D. majalis subsp. baltica), losing up to 99.87% of their modern range or their range may be significantly reduced (D. salina and D. umbrosa), losing up to 80.83% of their present distribution. It is worth considering global changes in planning conservation activities and identifying areas that may play a significant role in the functioning of the national flora in the future.

The ecological adaptation of the unparalleled plastome character evolution in slipper orchids

Plastomes may have undergone adaptive evolution in the process of plant adaptation to diverse environments, whereby species may differ in plastome characters. Cypripedioideae successfully colonized distinct environments and could be an ideal group for studying the interspecific variation and adaptive evolution of plastomes. Comparative study of plastomes, ancestral state reconstruction, phylogenetic-based analysis, ecological niche modelling, and selective pressure analysis were conducted to reveal the evolutionary patterns of plastomes in Cypripedioideae and their relationship with environmental factors. The plastomes of the three evolved genera had reduced plastome size, increased GC content, and compacted gene content compared to the basal group. Variations in plastome size and GC content are proved to have clear relationships with climate regions. Furthermore, ecological niche modelling revealed that temperature and water factors are important climatic factors contributing to the distributional difference which is directly correlated with the climate regions. The temperature-sensitive genes ndh genes, infA, and rpl20 were found to be either lost/pseudogenized or under positive selection in the evolved groups. Unparalleled plastome character variations were discovered in slipper orchids. Our study indicates that variations in plastome characters have adaptive consequences and that temperature and water factors are important climatic factors that affect plastome evolution. This research highlights the expectation that plants can facilitate adaptation to different environmental conditions with the changes in plastome and has added critical insight for understanding the process of plastome evolution in plants.

Predicting habitat suitability and niche dynamics of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum in the Himalaya under projected climate change

In the era of anthropocene, global warming tends to alter the distribution range of the plant species. Highly fragile to such changes are the species that are endemic, inhabit higher elevations and show narrow distribution ranges. Predicting and plotting the appropriate suitable habitats and keeping knowledge of how climate change will affect future distribution become imperative for designing effective conservation strategies. In the current study we have used BIOMOD ensemble forecasting to study the current and predict the future potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum and describe their niche dynamics in Himalayan biodiversity hotspots under climate change scenarios using ecospat R package. Results reveal sufficient internal evaluation metrics with area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values greater than 0.8 i.e. 0.93 and 0.98 and 0.82 and 0.90 for D. hatageria and R. webbianum respectively, which signifies robustness of the model. Among different bioclimatic variables, bio_1, bio_3, bio_8, bio_14 and bio_15 were the most influential, showing greater impact on the potential distribution of these plant species. Range change analysis showed that both the studied species will show significant contraction of their suitable habitats under future climatic scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the year 2070, indicate that the suitable habitats could be reduced by about 51.41% and 70.57% for D. hatagirea and R. webbianum respectively. The results of the niche comparisons between the current and future climatic scenarios showed moderate level of niche overlap for all the pairs with D. hatageria showing 61% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050 and R. webbianum reflects 68% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050. Furthermore, the PCA analysis revealed that climatic conditions for both the species vary significantly between current and future scenarios. The similarity and equivalence test showed that the niche between present and future climate change scenarios is comparable but not identical. From the current study we concluded that the influence of climate change on the habitat distribution of these plant species in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots can be considered very severe. Drastic reduction in overall habitat suitability poses a high risk of species extinction and thereby threatens to alter the functions and services of these fragile ecosystems. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other. The outcomes of this study can contribute substantially to understand the consequences of climate change in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots.

Effects of Climate Change on the Habitat of the Leopard (Panthera pardus) in the Liupanshan National Nature Reserve of China

Simple Summary

Climate change affects animal populations by affecting their habitats. The leopard population has significantly decreased due to climate change and human disturbance. We studied the impact of climate change on leopard habitats using infrared camera technology in the Liupanshan National Nature Reserve of Jingyuan County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, from July 2017 to October 2019. We captured 25 leopard distribution points and used the MAXENT model to predict and analyze the habitat. We studied the leopard’s suitable habitat area and distribution area under different geographical scales in the reserve. Changes in habitat area of leopards under three climate models in Guyuan in 2050 were also studied. We conclude that the current main factors affecting suitable leopard habitat area were vegetation cover and human disturbance. The most critical factor affecting future suitable habitat area is rainfall. Under the three climate models, the habitat area of the leopard decreased gradually because of an increase in carbon dioxide concentration.

Abstract

Climate change affects animal populations by affecting their habitats. The leopard population has significantly decreased due to climate change and human disturbance. We studied the impact of climate change on leopard habitats using infrared camera technology in the Liupanshan National Nature Reserve of Jingyuan County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, from July 2017 to October 2019. We captured 25 leopard distribution points over 47,460 camera working days. We used the MAXENT model to predict and analyze the habitat. We studied the leopard’s suitable habitat area and distribution area under different geographical scales in the reserve. Changes in habitat area of leopards under the rcp2.6, rcp4.5, and rcp8.5 climate models in Guyuan in 2050 were also studied. We conclude that the current main factors affecting suitable leopard habitat area were vegetation cover and human disturbance. The most critical factor affecting future suitable habitat area is rainfall. Under the three climate models, the habitat area of the leopard decreased gradually because of an increase in carbon dioxide concentration. Through the prediction of the leopard’s distribution area in the Liupanshan Nature Reserve, we evaluated the scientific nature of the reserve, which is helpful for the restoration and protection of the wild leopard population.

Predicting the potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo-an important medicinal orchid in the West Himalaya, under multiple climate change scenarios

Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressures is the most critical driver in the Himalayan region for forest ecosystem vulnerability. Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D.Don) Soo is an important yet highly threatened medicinal orchid from the Himalayan region. Poor regenerative power and growing demand have resulted in the steep decline of its natural habitats populations. The present study aims to identify the habitat suitability of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalaya using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was used to determine suitable future areas. Sixteen least correlated (< 0.8) bioclimatic, topographical and geomorphic variables were used to construct the species climatic niche. The dominant contributing variables were elevation (34.85%) followed by precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.04%), soil type (8.77%), land use land cover (8.26%), mean annual temperature (5.51%), and temperature seasonality (5.11%). Compared to the present distribution, habitat suitability under future projection, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2050 and 2070), was found to shift to higher elevation towards the northwest direction, while lower altitudes will invariably be less suitable. Further, as compared to the current distribution, the climatic niche space of the species is expected to expand in between11.41–22.13% in the near future. High habitats suitability areas are mainly concentrated in the forest range like Dharchula and Munsyari range, Pindar valley, Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, West of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, and Uttarkashi forest division. The present study delineated the fundamental niche baseline map of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalayas and highlighted regions/areas where conservation and management strategies should be intensified in the next 50 years. In addition, as the species is commercially exploited illegally, the information gathered is essential for conservationists and planners who protect the species at the regional levels.

Habitat Characteristics of Magnolia Based on Spatial Analysis: Landscape Protection to Conserve Endemic and Endangered Magnolia sulawesiana Brambach, Noot., and Culmsee

Based on habitat preferences, in this study, we investigated the spatial distribution of the Magnolia genus in the northern part of Sulawesi. Habitat characteristics, especially temperature, precipitation, and topography, were determined using spatial analysis. The temperature and precipitation datasets were obtained from WorldClim BIO Variables V1, and topographical data were obtained from the Google Earth Engine. Data collection began in 2008–2009 and was completed in 2019–2020. In total, we analyzed 786 waypoints. The genus distribution was then predicted based on the most suitable habitat characteristics and mapped spatially. This study confirmed that Magnolia spp. distribution is affected by the annual temperature range, precipitation seasonality, and elevation. We discovered endemic and endangered species, Magnolia sulawesiana Brambach, Noot., and Culmsee, that were previously distributed exclusively in the central part of Sulawesi. Five waypoints of the endemic species were found in the conservation area of the Gunung Ambang Nature Reserve and on the border of Bogani Nani Wartabone Nation Park. In general, M. sulawesiana is distributed at higher elevations than other Magnolia species. This study provides a scientific basis for forest officers to develop in-situ and ex-situ conservation strategies and landscape protection measures to maintain the sustainable use of the genus, especially the sustainability of endemic species.

Modeling of Valeriana wallichii Habitat Suitability and Niche Dynamics in the Himalayan Region under Anticipated Climate Change

An increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases necessitates the use of species distribution models (SDMs) in modeling suitable habitats and projecting the impact of climate change on the future range shifts of the species. The present study is based on the BIOMOD ensemble approach to map the currently suitable habitats and predict the impact of climate change on the niche shift of Valeriana wallichii. We also studied its niche dynamics using the ecospat package in R software. Values of the area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) were highly significant (>0.9), which shows that the model has run better. From 19 different bioclimatic variables, only 8 were retained after correlation, among which bio_17 (precipitation of driest quarter), bio_1 (annual mean temperature), and bio_12 (annual mean precipitation) received the highest gain. Under future climate change, the suitable habitats will be significantly contracted by −94% (under representative concentration pathway RCP 8.5 for 2070) and −80.22% (under RCP 8.5 for 2050). There is a slight increase in habitat suitability by +16.69% (RCP 4.5 for 2050) and +8.9% (RCP 8.5 for 2050) under future climate change scenarios. The equivalency and similarity tests of niche dynamics show that the habitat suitability for current and future climatic scenarios is comparable but not identical. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) analysis shows that climatic conditions will be severely affected between current and future scenarios. From this study, we conclude that the habitats of Valeriana wallichii are highly vulnerable to climate shifts. This study can be used to alleviate the threat to this plant by documenting the unexplored populations, restoring the degraded habitats through rewilding, and launching species recovery plans in the natural habitats.

Ecological assessment and environmental niche modelling of Himalayan rhubarb (Rheum webbianum Royle) in northwest Himalaya

In an era of anthropocene, threatened and endemic species with small population sizes and habitat specialists experience a greater global conservation concern in view of being at higher risk of extinction. Predicting and plotting appropriate potential habitats for such species is a rational method for monitoring and restoring their dwindling populations in expected territories. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) coalesces species existence sites with environmental raster layers to construct models that describe possible distributions of plant species. The present study is aimed to study the potential distribution and cultivation hotspots for reintroducing the high value, vulnerable medicinal herb (Rheum webbianum) in the Union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh using population attributes and ecological niche modelling approach. Sixty-three populations inventoried from twenty-eight areas display a significant change in the phytosociological attributes on account of various anthropogenic threats. The current potential habitats coincide with actual distribution records and the mean value of Area Under Curve (AUC) was 0.98 and the line of predicted omission was almost adjacent to omission in training samples, thus validating a robustness of the model. The potential habitat suitability map based on the current climatic conditions predicted a total of 103760 km2 as suitable area for the growth of Rheum webbianum. Under the future climatic conditions, there is a significant reduction in the habitat suitability ranging from -78531.34 Km2 (RCP 4.5 for 2050) to -77325.81 (RCP 8.5 for 2070). Furthermore, there is a slight increase in the suitable habitats under future climatic conditions, ranging from +21.99 Km2 under RCP 8.5 (2050) to +3.14 Km2 under RCP 4.5 (2070). The Jackknife tests indicated Precipitation of Driest Month (BIO14) as the most contributing climatic variable in governing the distribution of R. webbianum. Therefore, scientifically sound management strategies are urgently needed to save whatever populations are left in-situ to protect this species from getting extinct. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations of R. webbianum on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species with specific habitat requirements by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other.

Inferring the Potential Geographic Distribution and Reasons for the Endangered Status of the Tree Fern, Sphaeropteris lepifera, in Lingnan, China Using a Small Sample Size

In this study, we investigated suitable habitats for the endangered tree fern, Sphaeropteris lepifera (J. Sm. ex Hook.) R.M. Tryon, based on fieldwork, ecological niche modeling, and regression approaches. We combined these data with the characterization of spore germination and gametophytic development in the laboratory to assess the reasons why S. lepifera is endangered and to propose a conservation strategy that focuses on suitable sites for reintroduction and accounts for the ecology and biphasic life cycle of the species. Our methods represent an integration of process- and correlation-based approaches to understanding the distributional patterns of this species, and this combined approach, while uncommonly applied, is a more robust strategy than either approach used in isolation. Our ecological niche models indicated that cold temperature extremes, temperature stability over long- and short-terms, and the seasonality of precipitation were among the most important abiotic environmental factors affecting the distribution of S. lepifera among the variables that we measured. Moreover, distribution of this fern species is also strongly influenced by the timing of development of male and female gametes. Additionally, we observed that slope aspect, specifically south-facing slopes, facilitates more incoming sunlight for mature trees, and simultaneously, provides greater, much-needed shade for fiddleheads on account of the canopy being denser. We believe that our study can provide important guidance on the restoration of S. lepifera in the wild. Specifically, potential restoration areas can be screened for the specific environmental factors that we infer to have a critical impact on the survival of the species.

Reproductive Biology and Pollination Ecology of Berberis lycium Royle: A Highly Valued Shrub of Immense Medicinal Significance

Study of reproductive biology and pollination ecology helps in understanding the life history patterns of species. Such a study brings to light the bottlenecks, if any, on account of which the individuals of the species are not able to reproduce in nature and ultimately helps in planning appropriate conservation strategies for the species under threat. The present study was aimed at examining the morphological and reproductive variance in Berberis lycium, a threatened ecological specialist growing within shrubberies and open hillsides of the North-Western Himalayas in India. B. lycium displays three different variants. Flowering period ranges from February to September. Pollen viability as reported on fluorescein diacetate and acetocarmine treatments was highest for variant I, while maximum pollen output was obtained for variant III. Pollen pistil interaction is brought by the movement of anther towards stigma. Fluorescence microscopy of hand pollinated club shaped stigma shows that the germinating pollen form a ring over the receptive adaxial surface. Pollination syndrome is entomophily. Variant II attracts a significantly large number of pollinators from diverse insect families. Breeding experiments reflect that plants are self-compatible and cross fertile. Reproductive output (% fruit set) was highest for variant II followed by III and I, respectively. This investigation helped to understand the effect of different biotic and abiotic constraints on the phenology and reproductive biology of the plant. The information generated so will enable conservationists to design appropriate strategies for its long-term survival and sustenance in nature.