Factors influencing under-five mortality in rural- urban Ghana: An applied survival analysis

Analysis of Under-Five Mortality Rate in Saudi Arabia: 1973 to 2022

INTRODUCTION

The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) refers to the probability that a newborn will die before reaching exactly five years of age. The U5MR is expressed per 1,000 live births. Saudi Arabia has made efforts to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs), for child mortality by 2030. Although Saudi Arabia has put in place initiatives to achieve the SDGs for child mortality by 2030, data on the success of these initiatives are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare U5MR trends and patterns in Saudi Arabia by decade and sex over a 50-year period (1973-2022).

METHODS

Data on the U5MR in Saudi Arabia during 1973-2022 were extracted from the UNICEF database. The mean mortality rates every 10 years were calculated and then compared over decades between males and females using a chi-square test. A two-sided P-value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The U5MR was highest in 1973 (149.1 per 1,000 live births; 150.7 males vs. 147.3 females) and lowest in 2022 (6.4 per 1,000 live births; 6.6 males vs. 6.3 females). The statistical analysis revealed a significant decline in the mean U5MR during 1973-2022 (P < 0.01), with no difference between male and female U5MR in any of the five decades.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis of U5MR trends over five decades in Saudi Arabia (1973-2022) revealed a remarkable decline in the rate among both males and females, with a U5MR of 149.1 per 1,000 live births in 1973 and 6.4 per 1,000 live births in 2022. Saudi Arabia has achieved the SDG target 3.2 (ending preventable deaths of newborns and children under five years of age by 2030). Based on an analysis of the UNICEF data and a literature review, recommendations are proposed to achieve even greater reductions in the U5MR, especially in the neonatal and infant stages.

An analysis of cause-specific under-5 mortality in Bangladesh using the demographic and health survey 2011 and 2017-2018

BACKGROUND

As the Sustainable Development Goal 3.2.1 deadline (2030) approaches, rapidly reducing under-5 mortality (U5M) gains more prominence. However, initiatives or interventions that aided Bangladesh in achieving Millennium Development Goal 4 showed varied effectiveness in reducing certain cause-specific U5M. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the predictors of the key cause-specific mortalities.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted using the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011 and 2017-18 data. Cause-specific U5M was examined using multilevel multinomial mixed-effects analyses, and overall/all-cause U5M was examined using multilevel mixed-effects analyses. The respective estimates were compared.

RESULTS

The cause-specific analysis revealed that pneumonia and prematurity-related U5M were significantly associated with antenatal care and postnatal care, respectively. However, analysis of overall/all-cause U5M did not reveal any significant association with health services. Twins or multiples had a greater risk of mortality from preterm-related conditions (adjusted Relative Risk Ratio (aRRR): 38.01, 95% CI: 19.08-75.7, p < .001), birth asphyxia (aRRR: 6.52, 95% CI: 2.51-16.91, p < .001), and possible serious infections (aRRR: 11.12, 95% CI: 4.52-27.36, p < .001) than singletons. Children born to mothers 18 years or younger also exhibited a greater risk of mortality from these three causes than children born to older mothers. This study also revealed an increase in the predicted risk of prematurity-related mortality in the 2017-18 survey among children born to mothers 18 years or younger, children born to mothers without any formal education, twins or multiples and children who did not receive postnatal care.

CONCLUSIONS

This research provides valuable insights into accelerating U5M reduction; a higher risk of preterm-related death among twins underscores the importance of careful monitoring of mothers pregnant with twins or multiples through the continuum of care; elevated risk of death among children who did not receive postnatal care, or whose mothers did not receive antenatal care stresses the need to strengthen the coverage and quality of maternal and neonatal health care; furthermore, higher risks of preterm-related deaths among the children of mothers with low formal education or children born to mothers 18 years or younger highlight the importance of more comprehensive initiatives to promote maternal education and prevent adolescent pregnancy.

An explanation of the stagnant under-5 mortality rate in Bangladesh using multilevel, multivariable analysis of three Demographic and Health Surveys

Despite remarkable success in the Millennium Development Goal era, Bangladesh experienced a sluggish reduction in the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) between 2014 and 2017-18. Our study aimed to explain this stagnancy by examining the variation in the key predictor-specific mortality risks over time, using the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011, 2014 and 2017-18 data. We applied multilevel mixed effects logistic regression to examine the extent to which the under-5 mortality (U5M) risks were associated with the key sociodemographic and health service-specific predictors. We found that the rise in mortality risks attributable to maternal age 18 years or below, low maternal education, mother's overweight or obesity and the absence of a handwashing station within the household were the key contributors to the stagnant U5MR between 2014 and 2017-18. Poverty and low education aggravated the mortality risks. Besides, antenatal care (ANC) and postnatal care (PNC) did not impact U5M risks as significantly as expected. Compulsory use of ANC and PNC cards and strict monitoring of their use may improve the quality of these health services. Leveraging committees like the Upazila Hospital Management Committee can bring harmony to implementing policies and programmes in the sectors related to U5M.

Association between maternal health service utilization and under-five mortality rate in China and its provinces, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

The United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goal - 3.2 aims to eliminate all preventable under-five mortality rate (U5MR). In China, government have made efforts to provide maternal health services and reduce U5MR. Hence, we aimed to explore maternal health service utilization in relation to U5MR in China and its provinces in 1990-2017.

METHODS

We obtained data from Global Burden of Disease 2017, China Health Statistics Yearbook, China Statistical Yearbook, and Human Development Report China Special Edition. The trend of U5MR in each province of China from 1990 to 2017 was analyzed using Joinpoint Regression model. We measured the inequities in maternal health services using HEAT Plus, a health inequity measurement tool developed by the UN. The generalized estimating equation model was used to explore the association between maternal health service utilization (including prenatal screening, hospital delivery and postpartum visits) and U5MR.

RESULTS

First, in China, the U5MR per 1000 live births decreased from 50 in 1990 to 12 in 2017 and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was - 5.2 (p < 0.05). Secondly, China had a high maternal health service utilization in 2017, with 96.5% for prenatal visits, 99.9% for hospital delivery, and 94% for postnatal visits. Inequity in maternal health services between provinces is declining, with hospital delivery rate showing the greatest decrease (SII, 14.01 to 1.87, 2010 to 2017). Third, an increase in the rate of hospital delivery rate can significantly reduce U5MR (OR 0.991, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.995). Postpartum visits rate with a one-year lag can reduce U5MR (OR 0.993, 95%CI 0.987 to 0.999). However, prenatal screening rate did not have a significant effect on U5MR.

CONCLUSION

The decline in U5MR in China was associated with hospital delivery and postpartum visits. The design and implementation of maternal health services may provide references to other low-income and middle-income countries.

Modeling time to death for under-five children in Malawi using 2015/16 Demographic and Health Survey: a survival analysis

BACKGROUND

Malawi has one of the highest under-five mortality rates in Sub Sahara Africa. Understanding the factors that contribute to child mortality in Malawi is crucial for the development and implementation of effective interventions to reduce child mortality. The aim of this study is to use survival analysis in modeling time to death for under-five children in Malawi. In turn, identify potential risk factors for child mortality and inform the development of interventions to reduce child mortality in the country.

METHOD

This study used data from all births that occurred in the five years leading up to the 2015/16 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey. The Frailty hazard model was applied to predict infant survival in Malawi. In this analysis, the outcome of interest was death and it had two possible outcomes: "dead" or "alive". Age at death was regarded as the survival time variable. Infants who were still alive at the time of the study as of the day of the interview were considered as censored observations in the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 17,286 live births born during the 5 years preceding the survey were analysed. The study found that the risk of death was higher among children born to mothers aged 30-39 and 40 or older compared to teen mothers. Infants whose mothers attended fewer than four antenatal care visits were also found to be at a higher risk of death. On the other hand, the study found that using mosquito nets and early breastfeeding were associated with a lower risk of death, as were being male and coming from a wealthier household.

CONCLUSION

The study reveals a notable decline in infant mortality rates as under-five children age, underscoring the challenge of ensuring newborn survival. Factors such as maternal age, birth order, socioeconomic status, mosquito net usage, early breastfeeding initiation, geographic location, and child's sex are key predictors of under-five mortality. To address this, public health strategies should prioritize interventions targeting these predictors to reduce under-five mortality rates.

Time to death and its determinants of under-five children in rural Ethiopia by using shared frailty

Under-five (U5M) is one of the most significant and sensitive measures of the community's health. Children who live in rural areas are more likely than those who live in urban areas to die before the age of five. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the Survival status of under-five mortality and its determinants in rural Ethiopia. The 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey was used in this study as a secondary source (EMDHS). A total of 4426 weighted under-five children were included in the study. To determine survival time and identify predictors of death among children under the age of five, the Cox's gamma shared frailty model and the Kaplan Meier model, respectively, were used. An adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) along with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were used to measure the size and direction of the association. The Study showed that in rural Ethiopia, 6.03% of children died before celebrating their first birthday. The median age of under-five mortality in rural Ethiopia was estimated to be 29 Months. The hazard of death among under-five children and those who had given birth to two children in the last five years was 4.99 times less likely to be at risk of dying than those who had given birth to one Child in the previous five years (AHR 4.99, 95% CI 2.97, 8.83). The Study Concluded that under-five mortality remained high in rural Ethiopia. In the final model, the Age of Mothers, Sex of Household, Breastfeeding, Types of Birth, Sex of Child, Educational Level of Mothers, Wealth Index, Child ever born, Marital Status, and Water Source were significant predictors of under-five mortality. Twins and children who are not breastfed should receive additional attention, along with improving water resources for households and mothers income.

Geographic disparities in the time to under-five mortality in Ghana

Globally, there has been tremendous advancement in medicine and child healthcare with increased life expectancy. That notwithstanding, the risk of under-five mortality ─ children dying before their fifth birthday remains relatively high in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa such as Ghana. In Ghana, under-five mortality remains a major public health problem that requires significant policy interventions. Using data from the 2017 Maternal Health Survey (n = 4785), we examined the geographic disparities in the time to under-five mortality in Ghana. The Kaplan Meier estimator showed significant (Log-rank: p< 0.001) rural-urban differences in the time to under-five mortality in Ghana. A disaggregated cox proportional hazards analysis showed that despite wide consensus that children in urban areas have a high survival rate, children in urban areas in northern regions of Ghana, especially the Upper West (HR = 4.40, p < 0.05) and Upper East (HR = 5.37, p < 0.01) Regions were significantly at increased risk of dying before the age of five compared to children in urban areas in the Greater Accra Region. A rural-urban comparison showed that children born in rural areas in all the other regions of Ghana were at a higher risk of dying before the age of five when compared to their counterparts in the rural areas of Greater Accra Region. Other factors such as sex of child, mothers' age and use of the internet, number of household members, ethnicity and household wealth were significantly associated with the timing of under-five mortality in Ghana. Healthcare policies and programs such as immunizations and affordable child healthcare services should be prioritized especially in rural areas of regions with a high risk of child mortality. Also, there is a need to improve healthcare delivery in urban areas, particularly in northern Ghana, where deplorable healthcare service infrastructure and delivery coupled with high poverty rates put children at risk of dying before their fifth birthday.