Geographic boundary analysis in spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology: perspective and prospects

Phoenixmap: An Abstract Approach to Visualize 2D Spatial Distributions

The multidimensional nature of spatial data poses a challenge for visualization. In this paper, we introduce Phoenixmap, a simple abstract visualization method to address the issue of visualizing multiple spatial distributions at once. The Phoenixmap approach starts by identifying the enclosed outline of the point collection, then assigns different widths to outline segments according to the segments' corresponding inside regions. Thus, one 2D distribution is represented as an outline with varied thicknesses. Phoenixmap is capable of overlaying multiple outlines and comparing them across categories of objects in a 2D space. We chose heatmap as a benchmark spatial visualization method and conducted user studies to compare performances among Phoenixmap, heatmap, and dot distribution map. Based on the analysis and participant feedback, we demonstrate that Phoenixmap 1) allows users to perceive and compare spatial distribution data efficiently; 2) frees up graphics space with a concise form that can provide visualization design possibilities like overlapping; and 3) provides a good quantitative perceptual estimating capability given the proper legends. Finally, we discuss several possible applications of Phoenixmap and present one visualization of multiple species of birds' active regions in a nature preserve.

Interactive web-based tool for evaluating the spread of bovine tuberculosis and brucellosis in Colombia

Background: Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) and brucellosis are associated with devastating losses in the livestock sector in Colombia and even in developed countries. Real-time disease surveillance is a key strategy to control and eradicate infectious disease outbreaks. Objective: To design an epidemiological tool for monitoring BTB and brucellosis in Colombia. Methods: An interactive platform for disease mapping of BTB and brucellosis during an observation period between years 2004 and 2019 was designed. Results: Our analysis showed that the provinces of Cundinamarca and Valle del Cauca are regions affected by BTB and brucellosis epidemics, respectively (p<0.001). Furthermore, increased case detection of BTB was reported in 2012 and brucellosis in 2019 (p<0.001). Conclusions: This epidemiological platform allows tracking BTB and tuberculosis hotspots, identifying trends over time, and provides useful information to animal health authorities for designing new strategies in control programs.

Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression

Analyzing temporal trends in health outcomes can provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of a disease like cancer and generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. In the United States such an analysis is increasingly conducted using joinpoint regression outside a spatial framework, which overlooks the existence of significant variation among U.S. counties and states with regard to the incidence of cancer. This paper presents several innovative ways to account for space in joinpoint regression: (1) prior filtering of noise in the data by binomial kriging and use of the kriging variance as measure of reliability in weighted least-square regression, (2) detection of significant boundaries between adjacent counties based on tests of parallelism of time trends and confidence intervals of annual percent change of rates, and (3) creation of spatially compact groups of counties with similar temporal trends through the application of hierarchical cluster analysis to the results of boundary analysis. The approach is illustrated using time series of proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases diagnosed yearly in every county of Florida since 1980s. The annual percent change (APC) in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines vary greatly across Florida. Most counties with non-significant average APC are located in the north-western part of Florida, known as the Panhandle, which is more rural than other parts of Florida. The number of significant boundaries peaked in the early 1990s when prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test became widely available, a temporal trend that suggests the existence of geographical disparities in the implementation and/or impact of the new screening procedure, in particular as it began available.

Highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses exhibit few barriers to gene flow in Vietnam

Locating areas where genetic change is inhibited can illuminate underlying processes that drive evolution of pathogens. The persistence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in Vietnam since 2003, and the continuous molecular evolution of Vietnamese avian influenza viruses, indicates that local environmental factors are supportive not only of incidence but also of viral adaptation. This article explores whether gene flow is constant across Vietnam, or whether there exist boundary areas where gene flow exhibits discontinuity. Using a dataset of 125 highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses, principal components analysis and wombling analysis are used to indicate the location, magnitude, and statistical significance of genetic boundaries. Results show that a small number of geographically minor boundaries to gene flow in highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses exist in Vietnam, but that overall there is little division in genetic exchange. This suggests that differences in genetic characteristics of viruses from one region to another are not the result of barriers to H5N1 viral exchange in Vietnam, and that H5N1 avian influenza is able to spread relatively unimpeded across the country.