Heath status, frailty, and multimorbidity in patients with emergency general surgery conditions

Mortality burden from variation in provision of surgical care in emergency general surgery: a cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample

Background

The decision to undertake a surgical intervention for an emergency general surgery (EGS) condition (appendicitis, diverticulitis, cholecystitis, hernia, peptic ulcer, bowel obstruction, ischemic bowel) involves a complex consideration of factors, particularly in older adults. We hypothesized that identifying variability in the application of operative management could highlight a potential pathway to improve patient survival and outcomes.

Methods

We included adults aged 65+ years with an EGS condition from the 2016-2017 National Inpatient Sample. Operative management was determined from procedure codes. Each patient was assigned a propensity score (PS) for the likelihood of undergoing an operation, modeled from patient and hospital factors: EGS diagnosis, age, gender, race, presence of shock, comorbidities, and hospital EGS volumes. Low and high probability for surgery was defined using a PS cut-off of 0.5. We identified two model-concordant groups (no surgery-low probability, surgery-high probability) and two model-discordant groups (no surgery-high probability, surgery-low probability). Logistic regression estimated the adjusted OR (AOR) of in-hospital mortality for each group.

Results

Of 375 546 admissions, 21.2% underwent surgery. Model-discordant care occurred in 14.6%; 5.9% had no surgery despite a high PS and 8.7% received surgery with low PS. In the adjusted regression, model-discordant care was associated with significantly increased mortality: no surgery-high probability AOR 2.06 (1.86 to 2.27), surgery-low probability AOR 1.57 (1.49 to 1.65). Model-concordant care showed a protective effect against mortality (AOR 0.83, 0.74 to 0.92).

Conclusions

Nearly one in seven EGS patients received model-discordant care, which was associated with higher mortality. Our study suggests that streamlined treatment protocols can be applied in EGS patients as a means to save lives.

Level of evidence

III.

Does frailty impact failure-to-rescue in geriatric trauma patients?

BACKGROUND

Failure-to-rescue (FTR), defined as death following a major complication, is a metric of trauma quality. The impact of patient frailty on FTR has not been fully investigated, especially in geriatric trauma patients. This study hypothesized that frailty increased the risk of FTR in geriatric patients with severe injury.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the TQIP database between 2015 and 2019, including geriatric patients with trauma (age ≥65 years) and an Injury Severity Score (ISS) > 15, who survived ≥48 hours postadmission. Frailty was assessed using the modified 5-item frailty index (mFI). Patients were categorized into frail (mFI ≥ 2) and nonfrail (mFI < 2) groups. Logistic regression analysis and a generalized additive model (GAM) were used to examine the association between FTR and patient frailty after controlling for age, sex, type of injury, trauma center level, ISS, and vital signs on admission.

RESULTS

Among 52,312 geriatric trauma patients, 34.6% were frail (mean mFI: frail: 2.3 vs. nonfrail: 0.9, p < 0.001). Frail patients were older (age, 77 vs. 74 years, p < 0.001), had a lower ISS (19 vs. 21, p < 0.001), and had a higher incidence of FTR compared with nonfrail patients (8.7% vs. 8.0%, p = 0.006). Logistic regression analysis revealed that frailty was an independent predictor of FTR (odds ratio, 1.32; confidence interval, 1.23-1.44; p < 0.001). The GAM plots showed a linear increase in FTR incidence with increasing mFI after adjusting for confounders.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that frailty independently contributes to an increased risk of FTR in geriatric trauma patients. The impact of patient frailty should be considered when using FTR to measure the quality of trauma care.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/Care Management; Level IV.

No healthcare coverage, big problem: lack of insurance for older population associated with worse emergency general surgery outcomes

Introduction

Older populations, being a unique subset of patients, have poor outcomes for emergency general surgery (EGS). In regions lacking specialized medical coverage for older patients, disparities in healthcare provision lead to poor clinical outcomes. We aimed to identify factors predicting index admission inpatient mortality from EGS among sexagenarians, septuagenarians, and octogenarians.

Methods

Data of patients aged >60 years with EGS conditions defined by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma at primary index admission from 2010 to 2019 operated and non-operated at a large South Asian tertiary care hospital were analyzed. The primary outcome was primary index admission inpatient 30-day mortality. Parametric survival regression using Weibull distribution was performed. Factors such as patients' insurance status and surgical intervention were assessed using adjusted HR and 95% CI with a p-value of <0.05 considered statistically significant.

Results

We included 9551 primary index admissions of patients diagnosed with the nine most common primary EGS conditions. The mean patient age was 69.55±7.59 years. Overall mortality and complication rates were 3.94% and 42.29%, respectively. Primary index admission inpatient mortality was associated with complications including cardiac arrest and septic shock. Multivariable survival analysis showed that insurance status was not associated with mortality (HR 1.13; 95% CI 0.79, 1.61) after adjusting for other variables. The odds of developing complications among self-paid individuals were higher (adjusted OR 1.17; 95% CI 1.02, 1.35).

Conclusion

Lack of healthcare coverage for older adults can result in delayed presentation, leading to increased morbidity. Close attention should be paid to such patients for timely provision of treatment. There is a need to expand primary care access and proper management of comorbidities for overall patient well-being. Government initiatives for expanding insurance coverage for older population can further enhance their healthcare access, mitigating the risk of essential treatments being withheld due to financial limitations.

Level of evidence

III.

What If We Do Not Operate? Outcomes of Nonoperatively Managed Emergency General Surgery Patients

INTRODUCTION

Although two-thirds of patients with emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions are managed nonoperatively, their long-term outcomes are not well described. We describe outcomes of nonoperative management in a cohort of older EGS patients and estimate the projected risk of operative management using the NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We studied single-center inpatients aged 65 y and more with an EGS consult who did not undergo an operation (January 2019-December 2020). For each patient, we recorded the surgeon's recommendation as either an operation was "Not Needed" (medical management preferred) or "Not Recommended" (risk outweighed benefits). Our main outcome of interest was mortality at 30 d and 1 y. Our secondary outcome of interest was SRC-projected 30-day postoperative mortality risk (median % [interquartile range]), calculated using hypothetical low-risk and high-risk operations.

RESULTS

We included 204 patients (60% female, median age 75 y), for whom an operation was "Not Needed" in 81% and "Not Recommended" in 19%. In this cohort, 11% died at 30 d and 23% died at 1 y. Mortality was higher for the "Not Recommended" cohort (37% versus 5% at 30 d and 53% versus 16% at 1 y, P < 0.05). The SRC-projected 30-day postoperative mortality risk was 3.7% (1.3-8.7) for low-risk and 5.8% (2-11.8) for high-risk operations.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonoperative management in older EGS patients is associated with very high risk of short-term and long-term mortality, particularly if a surgeon advised that risks of surgery outweighed benefits. The SRC may underestimate risk in the highest-risk patients.

Functional Status is Key to Long-term Survival in Emergency General Surgery Conditions

INTRODUCTION

Emergency General Surgery (EGS) conditions in older patients constitutes a substantial public health burden due to high morbidity and mortality. We sought to utilize a supervised machine learning method to determine combinations of factors with the greatest influence on long-term survival in older EGS patients.

METHODS

We identified community dwelling participants admitted for EGS conditions from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey linked with claims (1992-2013). We categorized three binary domains of multimorbidity: chronic conditions, functional limitations, and geriatric syndromes (such as vision or hearing impairment, falls, incontinence). We also collected EGS disease type, age, and sex. We created a classification and regression tree (CART) model to identify groups of variables associated with our outcome of interest, three-year survival. We then performed Cox proportional hazards analysis to determine hazard ratios for each group with the lowest risk group as reference.

RESULTS

We identified 1960 patients (median age 79 [interquartile range [IQR]: 73, 85], 59.5% female). The CART model identified the presence of functional limitations as the primary splitting variable. The lowest risk group were patient aged ≤81 y with biliopancreatic disease and without functional limitations. The highest risk group was men aged ≥75 y with functional limitations (hazard ratio [HR] 11.09 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.91-20.83)). Notably absent from the CART model were chronic conditions and geriatric syndromes.

CONCLUSIONS

More than the presence of chronic conditions or geriatric syndromes, functional limitations are an important predictor of long-term survival and must be included in presurgical assessment.