Bacteriophages as model organisms for virus emergence research

Emergence failure of early epidemics: A mathematical modeling approach

Epidemic or pathogen emergence is the phenomenon by which a poorly transmissible pathogen finds its evolutionary pathway to become a mutant that can cause an epidemic. Many mathematical models of pathogen emergence rely on branching processes. Here, we discuss pathogen emergence using Markov chains, for a more tractable analysis, generalizing previous work by Kendall and Bartlett about disease invasion. We discuss the probability of emergence failure for early epidemics, when the number of infected individuals is small and the number of the susceptible individuals is virtually unlimited. Our formalism addresses both directly transmitted and vector-borne diseases, in the cases where the original pathogen is 1) one step-mutation away from the epidemic strain, and 2) undergoing a long chain of neutral mutations that do not change the epidemiology. We obtain analytic results for the probabilities of emergence failure and two features transcending the transmission mechanism. First, the reproduction number of the original pathogen is determinant for the probability of pathogen emergence, more important than the mutation rate or the transmissibility of the emerged pathogen. Second, the probability of mutation within infected individuals must be sufficiently high for the pathogen undergoing neutral mutations to start an epidemic, the mutation threshold depending again on the basic reproduction number of the original pathogen. Finally, we discuss the parameterization of models of pathogen emergence, using SARS-CoV1 as an example of zoonotic emergence and HIV as an example for the emergence of drug resistance. We also discuss assumptions of our models and implications for epidemiology.

Coevolution between marine Aeromonas and phages reveals temporal trade-off patterns of phage resistance and host population fitness

Coevolution of bacteria and phages is an important host and parasite dynamic in marine ecosystems, contributing to the understanding of bacterial community diversity. On the time scale, questions remain concerning what is the difference between phage resistance patterns in marine bacteria and how advantageous mutations gradually accumulate during coevolution. In this study, marine Aeromonas was co-cultured with its phage for 180 days and their genetic and phenotypic dynamics were measured every 30 days. We identified 11 phage resistance genes and classified them into three categories: lipopolysaccharide (LPS), outer membrane protein (OMP), and two-component system (TCS). LPS shortening and OMP mutations are two distinct modes of complete phage resistance, while TCS mutants mediate incomplete resistance by repressing the transcription of phage genes. The co-mutation of LPS and OMP was a major mode for bacterial resistance at a low cost. The mutations led to significant reductions in the growth and virulence of bacterial populations during the first 60 days of coevolution, with subsequent leveling off. Our findings reveal the marine bacterial community dynamics and evolutionary trade-offs of phage resistance during coevolution, thus granting further understanding of the interaction of marine microbes.

Understanding the Impacts of Bacteriophage Viruses: From Laboratory Evolution to Natural Ecosystems

Viruses of bacteriophages (phages) have broad effects on bacterial ecology and evolution in nature that mediate microbial interactions, shape bacterial diversity, and influence nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. The unrelenting impact of phages within the microbial realm is the result, in large part, of their ability to rapidly evolve in response to bacterial host dynamics. The knowledge gained from laboratory systems, typically using pairwise interactions between single-host and single-phage systems, has made clear that phages coevolve with their bacterial hosts rapidly, somewhat predictably, and primarily by counteradapting to host resistance. Recent advancement in metagenomics approaches, as well as a shifting focus toward natural microbial communities and host-associated microbiomes, is beginning to uncover the full picture of phage evolution and ecology within more complex settings. As these data reach their full potential, it will be critical to ask when and how insights gained from studies of phage evolution in vitro can be meaningfully applied to understanding bacteria-phage interactions in nature. In this review, we explore the myriad ways that phages shape and are themselves shaped by bacterial host populations and communities, with a particular focus on observed and predicted differences between the laboratory and complex microbial communities. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 9 is September 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Are photocatalytic processes effective for removal of airborne viruses from indoor air? A narrative review

A wide variety of methods have been applied in indoor air to reduce the microbial load and reduce the transmission rate of acute respiratory diseases to personnel in healthcare sittings. In recent months, with the occurrence of COVID-19 pandemic, the role of portable ventilation systems in reducing the load of virus in indoor air has received much attention. The present study delineates a comprehensive up-to-date overview of the available photocatalysis technologies that have been applied for inactivating and removing airborne viruses. The detection methods for identifying viral particles in air and the main mechanisms involving in virus inactivation during photocatalysis are described and discussed. The photocatalytic processes could effectively decrease the load of viruses in indoor air. However, a constant viral model may not be generalizable to other airborne viruses. In photocatalytic processes, temperature and humidity play a distinct role in the inactivation of viruses through changing photocatalytic rate. The main mechanisms for inactivation of airborne viruses in the photocatalytic processes included chemical oxidation by the reactive oxygen species (ROS), the toxicity of metal ions released from metal-containing photocatalysts, and morphological damage of viruses.

Host-Dependent Differences in Replication Strategy of the Sulfolobus Spindle-Shaped Virus Strain SSV9 (a.k.a., SSVK1): Infection Profiles in Hosts of the Family Sulfolobaceae

The Sulfolobus Spindle-shaped Virus (SSV) system has become a model for studying thermophilic virus biology, including archaeal host-virus interactions and biogeography. Several factors make the SSV system amenable to studying archaeal genetic mechanisms (e.g., CRISPRs) as well as virus-host interactions in high temperature acidic environments. Previously, we reported that SSVs exhibited differential infectivity on allopatric vs. sympatric hosts. We also noticed a wide host range for virus strain SSV9 (a.k.a., SSVK1). For decades, SSVs have been described as "non-lytic" double-stranded DNA viruses that infect species of the genus Sulfolobus and release virions via budding rather than host lysis. In this study, we show that SSVs infect hosts representing more than one genus of the family Sulfolobaceae in spot-on-lawn "halo" assays and in liquid culture infection assays. Growth curve analyses support the hypothesis that SSV9 virion release causes cell lysis. While SSV9 appears to lyse allopatric hosts, on a single sympatric host, SSV9 exhibits canonical non-lytic viral release historically reported SSVs. Therefore, the nature of SSV9 lytic-like behavior may be driven by allopatric evolution. The SSV9-infected host growth profile does not appear to be driven by multiplicity of infection (MOI). Greater stability of SSV9 vs. other SSVs (i.e., SSV1) in high temperature, low pH environments may contribute to higher transmission rates. However, neither higher transmission rate nor relative virulence in SSV9 infection seems to alter replication profile in susceptible hosts. Although it is known that CRISPR-Cas systems offer protection against viral infection in prokaryotes, CRISPRS are not reported to be a determinant of virus replication strategy. The mechanisms underlying SSV9 lytic-like behavior remain unknown and are the subject of ongoing investigations. These results suggest that genetic elements, potentially resulting from allopatric evolution, mediate distinct virus-host growth profiles of specific SSV-host strain pairings.

Bacteriophage lambda overcomes a perturbation in its host-viral genetic network through mutualism and evolution of life history traits

An important driver of evolution in viruses is natural selection to optimize the use of their hosts' genetic network. To learn how viruses respond to this pressure, we disrupted the genetic network of Escherichia coli to inhibit replication of its virus, bacteriophage lambda, and then observed how λ evolved to compensate. We deleted E. coli's dnaJ gene, which lambda uses to initiate DNA replication. Lambda partially restored its ability to reproduce with just two adaptive mutations associated with genes J and S. The location of the mutations was unexpected because they were not in genes that directly interact with DnaJ, rather they affected seemingly unrelated life history traits. A nonsynonymous J mutation increased lambda's adsorption rate and an S regulatory mutation delayed lysis timing. Lambda also recovered some of its reproductive potential through intracellular mutualism. This study offers two important lessons: first, viruses can rapidly adapt to disruptive changes in their host's genetic network. Second, organisms can employ mechanisms thought to operate at the population scale, such as evolution of life history traits and social interactions, in order to overcome hurdles at the molecular level. As life science research progresses and new fields become increasingly specialized, these results remind us of the importance of multiscale and interdisciplinary approaches to understand adaptation.

The coupon collector urn model with unequal probabilities in ecology and evolution

The sequential sampling of populations with unequal probabilities and with replacement in a closed population is a recurrent problem in ecology and evolution. Examples range from biodiversity sampling, epidemiology to the estimation of signal repertoire in animal communication. Many of these questions can be reformulated as urn problems, often as special cases of the coupon collector problem, most simply expressed as the number of coupons that must be collected to have a complete set. We aimed to apply the coupon collector model in a comprehensive manner to one example-hosts (balls) being searched (draws) and parasitized (ball colour change) by parasitic wasps-to evaluate the influence of differences in sampling probabilities between items on collection speed. Based on the model of a complete multinomial process over time, we define the distribution, distribution function, expectation and variance of the number of hosts parasitized after a given time, as well as the inverse problem, estimating the sampling effort. We develop the relationship between the risk distribution on the set of hosts and the speed of parasitization and propose a more elegant proof of the weak stochastic dominance among speeds of parasitization, using the concept of Schur convexity and the 'Robin Hood transfer' numerical operation. Numerical examples are provided and a conjecture about strong dominance-an ordering characteristic of random variables-is proposed. The speed at which new items are discovered is a function of the entire shape of the sampling probability distribution. The sole comparison of values of variances is not sufficient to compare speeds associated with different distributions, as generally assumed in ecological studies.

Evolutionary ecology of virus emergence

The cross-species transmission of viruses into new host populations, termed virus emergence, is a significant issue in public health, agriculture, wildlife management, and related fields. Virus emergence requires overlap between host populations, alterations in virus genetics to permit infection of new hosts, and adaptation to novel hosts such that between-host transmission is sustainable, all of which are the purview of the fields of ecology and evolution. A firm understanding of the ecology of viruses and how they evolve is required for understanding how and why viruses emerge. In this paper, I address the evolutionary mechanisms of virus emergence and how they relate to virus ecology. I argue that, while virus acquisition of the ability to infect new hosts is not difficult, limited evolutionary trajectories to sustained virus between-host transmission and the combined effects of mutational meltdown, bottlenecking, demographic stochasticity, density dependence, and genetic erosion in ecological sinks limit most emergence events to dead-end spillover infections. Despite the relative rarity of pandemic emerging viruses, the potential of viruses to search evolutionary space and find means to spread epidemically and the consequences of pandemic viruses that do emerge necessitate sustained attention to virus research, surveillance, prophylaxis, and treatment.

Evolutionary interpretations of mycobacteriophage biodiversity and host-range through the analysis of codon usage bias

In an genomics course sponsored by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI), undergraduate students have isolated and sequenced the genomes of more than 1,150 mycobacteriophages, creating the largest database of sequenced bacteriophages able to infect a single host, Mycobacterium smegmatis, a soil bacterium. Genomic analysis indicates that these mycobacteriophages can be grouped into 26 clusters based on genetic similarity. These clusters span a continuum of genetic diversity, with extensive genomic mosaicism among phages in different clusters. However, little is known regarding the primary hosts of these mycobacteriophages in their natural habitats, nor of their broader host ranges. As such, it is possible that the primary host of many newly isolated mycobacteriophages is not M. smegmatis, but instead a range of closely related bacterial species. However, determining mycobacteriophage host range presents difficulties associated with mycobacterial cultivability, pathogenicity and growth. Another way to gain insight into mycobacteriophage host range and ecology is through bioinformatic analysis of their genomic sequences. To this end, we examined the correlations between the codon usage biases of 199 different mycobacteriophages and those of several fully sequenced mycobacterial species in order to gain insight into the natural host range of these mycobacteriophages. We find that UPGMA clustering tends to match, but not consistently, clustering by shared nucleotide sequence identify. In addition, analysis of GC content, tRNA usage and correlations between mycobacteriophage and mycobacterial codon usage bias suggests that the preferred host of many clustered mycobacteriophages is not M. smegmatis but other, as yet unknown, members of the mycobacteria complex or closely allied bacterial species.

Poly-γ-Glutamic Acid: Biodegradable Polymer for Potential Protection of Beneficial Viruses

Poly-γ-glutamic acid (γ-PGA) is a naturally occurring polymer, which due to its biodegradable, non-toxic and non-immunogenic properties has been used successfully in the food, medical and wastewater industries. A major hurdle in bacteriophage application is the inability of phage to persist for extended periods in the environment due to their susceptibility to environmental factors such as temperature, sunlight, desiccation and irradiation. Thus, the aim of this study was to protect useful phage from the harmful effect of these environmental factors using the γ-PGA biodegradable polymer. In addition, the association between γ-PGA and phage was investigated. Formulated phage (with 1% γ-PGA) and non-formulated phage were exposed to 50 °C. A clear difference was noticed as viability of non-formulated phage was reduced to 21% at log₁₀ 1.3 PFU/mL, while phage formulated with γ-PGA was 84% at log₁₀ 5.2 PFU/mL after 24 h of exposure. In addition, formulated phage remained viable at log₁₀ 2.5 PFU/mL even after 24 h of exposure at pH 3 solution. In contrast, non-formulated phages were totally inactivated after the same time of exposure. In addition, non-formulated phages when exposed to UV irradiation died within 10 min. In contrast also phages formulated with 1% γ-PGA had a viability of log₁₀ 4.1 PFU/mL at the same exposure time. Microscopy showed a clear interaction between γ-PGA and phages. In conclusion, the results suggest that γ-PGA has an unique protective effect on phage particles.

Genomic and Gene-Expression Comparisons among Phage-Resistant Type-IV Pilus Mutants of Pseudomonas syringae pathovar phaseolicola

Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola (Pph) is a significant bacterial pathogen of agricultural crops, and phage Φ6 and other members of the dsRNA virus family Cystoviridae undergo lytic (virulent) infection of Pph, using the type IV pilus as the initial site of cellular attachment. Despite the popularity of Pph/phage Φ6 as a model system in evolutionary biology, Pph resistance to phage Φ6 remains poorly characterized. To investigate differences between phage Φ6 resistant Pph strains, we examined genomic and gene expression variation among three bacterial genotypes that differ in the number of type IV pili expressed per cell: ordinary (wild-type), non-piliated, and super-piliated. Genome sequencing of non-piliated and super-piliated Pph identified few mutations that separate these genotypes from wild type Pph--and none present in genes known to be directly involved in type IV pilus expression. Expression analysis revealed that 81.1% of gene ontology (GO) terms up-regulated in the non-piliated strain were down-regulated in the super-piliated strain. This differential expression is particularly prevalent in genes associated with respiration--specifically genes in the tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA) cycle, aerobic respiration, and acetyl-CoA metabolism. The expression patterns of the TCA pathway appear to be generally up and down-regulated, in non-piliated and super-piliated Pph respectively. As pilus retraction is mediated by an ATP motor, loss of retraction ability might lead to a lower energy draw on the bacterial cell, leading to a different energy balance than wild type. The lower metabolic rate of the super-piliated strain is potentially a result of its loss of ability to retract.

Chemical constitution and effect of extracts of tomato plants byproducts on the enteric viral surrogates

Byproducts of tomato are known to include phenolic compounds but have not been studied in depth. In this study, the phenolic compositions of (stem, leaf, root, and whole plant) of two tomato cultivars, Pitenza and Floradade, were analyzed by HPLC-DAD. In parallel, the antiviral effects of crude extracts on viral surrogates, the bacteriophages MS2 and Av-05 were evaluated. The leaf extracts from the two varieties showed the highest concentration of phenolic compounds. The compounds identified were gallic acid, chlorogenic acid, ferulic acid, cafeic acid, rutin, and quercetin, and they represented 3174.3 and 1057.9 mg/100 g dried weight of the Pitenza and Floradade cultivars, respectively. MS2 and Av-05 titers at 5 mg/mL were reduced by 3.47 and 5.78 log10 PFU/mL and 3.78 and 4.93 log10 PFU/mL by Pitenza and Floradade cultivar leaf extract, respectively. These results show that tomato extracts are natural sources of bioactive substances with antiviral activity.

Frequency and fitness consequences of bacteriophage φ6 host range mutations

Viruses readily mutate and gain the ability to infect novel hosts, but few data are available regarding the number of possible host range-expanding mutations allowing infection of any given novel host, and the fitness consequences of these mutations on original and novel hosts. To gain insight into the process of host range expansion, we isolated and sequenced 69 independent mutants of the dsRNA bacteriophage Φ6 able to infect the novel host, Pseudomonas pseudoalcaligenes. In total, we found at least 17 unique suites of mutations among these 69 mutants. We assayed fitness for 13 of 17 mutant genotypes on P. pseudoalcaligenes and the standard laboratory host, P. phaseolicola. Mutants exhibited significantly lower fitnesses on P. pseudoalcaligenes compared to P. phaseolicola. Furthermore, 12 of the 13 assayed mutants showed reduced fitness on P. phaseolicola compared to wildtype Φ6, confirming the prevalence of antagonistic pleiotropy during host range expansion. Further experiments revealed that the mechanistic basis of these fitness differences was likely variation in host attachment ability. In addition, using computational protein modeling, we show that host-range expanding mutations occurred in hotspots on the surface of the phage's host attachment protein opposite a putative hydrophobic anchoring domain.

Emerging viruses: why they are not jacks of all trades?

In order to limit the impact of the recent pandemics ignited by viral host jumps, it is necessary to better understand the ecological and evolutionary factors influencing the early steps of emergence and the interactions between them. Antagonistic pleiotropy, that is, the negative fitness effect in the primary host of mutations allowing the infection of and the multiplication in a new host, has long been thought to be the main limitation to the evolution of generalist viruses and thus to emergence. However, the accumulation of experimental examples contradicting the hypothesis of antagonistic pleiotropy has highlighted the importance of other factors such as the epistasis between mutations increasing the adaptation to a new host. Epistasis is pervasive in viruses, affects the shape of the adaptive landscape and consequently the accessibility of evolutionary pathways. Finally, recent studies have gone steps further in the complexity of viral fitness determinism and stressed the potential importance of the epistatic pleiotropy and of the impact of host living conditions.

Epidemiological feedbacks affect evolutionary emergence of pathogens

The evolutionary emergence of new pathogens via mutation poses a considerable risk to human and animal populations. Most previous studies have investigated cases where a potentially pandemic strain emerges though mutation from an initial maladapted strain (i.e., its basic reproductive ratio R0 < 1). However, an alternative (and arguably more likely) cause of novel pathogen emergence is where a "weakly adapted" strain (with R0 ≈ 1) mutates into a strongly adapted strain (with R0 ≫ 1). In this case, a proportion of the host susceptible population is removed as the first strain spreads, but the impact this feedback has on emergence of mutated strains has yet to be quantified. We produce a model of pathogen emergence that takes into account changes in the susceptible population over time and find that the ongoing depletion of susceptible individuals by the first strain has a drastic effect on the emergence probability of the mutated strain, above that assumed by just scaling the reproductive ratio. Finally, we apply our model to the documented emergence of Chikungunya virus on La Réunion Island and demonstrate that the emergence probability of the mutated strain was reduced approximately 10-fold, compared to models assuming that susceptible depletion would not affect outbreak probability. These results highlight the importance of taking population feedbacks into account when predicting disease emergence.

Viral host-adaptation: insights from evolution experiments with phages

Phages, viral parasites of bacteria, share fundamental features of pathogenic animal and plant viruses and represent a highly tractable empirical model system to understand viral evolution and in particular viral host-adaptation. Phage adaptation to a particular host genotype often results in improved fitness by way of parallel evolution whereby independent lineages hit upon identical adaptive solutions. By contrast, phage adaptation to an evolving host population leads to the evolution of increasing host-range over time and correlated phenotypic and genetic divergence between populations. Phage host-range expansion frequently occurs by a process of stepwise evolution of multiple mutations, and host-shifts are often constrained by mutational availability, pleiotropic costs or ecological conditions.

Experimental selection reveals a trade-off between fecundity and lifespan in the coliphage Qß

Understanding virus evolution is key for improving ways to counteract virus-borne diseases. Results from comparative analyses have previously suggested a trade-off between fecundity and lifespan for viruses that infect the bacterium Escherichia coli (i.e. for coliphages), which, if confirmed, would define a particular constraint on the evolution of virus fecundity. Here, the occurrence of such a trade-off is investigated through a selection experiment using the coliphage Qß. Selection was applied for increased fecundity in three independent wild-type Qß populations, and the ability of the virions to remain viable outside the host was determined. The Qß life-history traits involved in the evolution of fecundity and the genetic changes associated with this evolution were also investigated. The results reveal that short-term evolution of increased fecundity in Qß was associated with decreased viability of phage virions. This trade-off apparently arose because fecundity increased at the expense of reducing the amount of resources (mainly time) invested per produced virion. Thus, the results also indicate that Qß fecundity may be enhanced through increases in the rates of adsorption to the host and progeny production. Finally, genomic sequencing of the evolved populations pinpointed sequences likely to be involved in the evolution of Qß fecundity.

What limits the evolutionary emergence of pathogens?

The ability of a pathogen to cause an epidemic when introduced in a new host population often relies on its ability to adapt to this new environment. Here, we give a brief overview of recent theoretical and empirical studies of such evolutionary emergence of pathogens. We discuss the effects of several ecological and genetic factors that may affect the likelihood of emergence: migration, life history of the infectious agent, host heterogeneity, and the rate and effects of mutations. We contrast different modelling approaches and indicate how details in the way we model each step of a life cycle can have important consequences on the predicted probability of evolutionary emergence. These different theoretical perspectives yield important insights into optimal surveillance and intervention strategies, which should aim for a reduction in the emergence (and re-emergence) of infectious diseases.

CRISPR-mediated adaptive immune systems in bacteria and archaea

Effective clearance of an infection requires that the immune system rapidly detects and neutralizes invading parasites while strictly avoiding self-antigens that would result in autoimmunity. The cellular machinery and complex signaling pathways that coordinate an effective immune response have generally been considered properties of the eukaryotic immune system. However, a surprisingly sophisticated adaptive immune system that relies on small RNAs for sequence-specific targeting of foreign nucleic acids was recently discovered in bacteria and archaea. Molecular vaccination in prokaryotes is achieved by integrating short fragments of foreign nucleic acids into a repetitive locus in the host chromosome known as a CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeat). Here we review the mechanisms of CRISPR-mediated immunity and discuss the ecological and evolutionary implications of these adaptive defense systems.

What Can Phages Tell Us about Host-Pathogen Coevolution?

The outcomes of host-parasite interactions depend on the coevolutionary forces acting upon them, but because every host-parasite relation is enmeshed in a web of biotic and abiotic interactions across a heterogeneous landscape, host-parasite coevolution has proven difficult to study. Simple laboratory phage-bacteria microcosms can ameliorate this difficulty by allowing controlled, well-replicated experiments with a limited number of interactors. Genetic, population, and life history data obtained from these studies permit a closer examination of the fundamental correlates of host-parasite coevolution. In this paper, I describe the results of phage-bacteria coevolutionary studies and their implications for the study of host-parasite coevolution. Recent experimental studies have confirmed phage-host coevolutionary dynamics in the laboratory and have shown that coevolution can increase parasite virulence, specialization, adaptation, and diversity. Genetically, coevolution frequently proceeds in a manner best described by the Gene for Gene model, typified by arms race dynamics, but certain contexts can result in Red Queen dynamics according to the Matching Alleles model. Although some features appear to apply only to phage-bacteria systems, other results are broadly generalizable and apply to all instances of antagonistic coevolution. With laboratory host-parasite coevolutionary studies, we can better understand the perplexing array of interactions that characterize organismal diversity in the wild.

Understanding specialism when the Jack of all trades can be the master of all

Specialism is widespread in nature, generating and maintaining diversity, but recent work has demonstrated that generalists can be equally fit as specialists in some shared environments. This no-cost generalism challenges the maxim that 'the jack of all trades is the master of none', and requires evolutionary genetic mechanisms explaining the existence of specialism and no-cost generalism, and the persistence of specialism in the face of selection for generalism. Examining three well-described mechanisms with respect to epistasis and pleiotropy indicates that sign (or antagonistic) pleiotropy without epistasis cannot explain no-cost generalism and that magnitude pleiotropy without epistasis (including directional selection and mutation accumulation) cannot explain the persistence of specialism. However, pleiotropy with epistasis can explain all. Furthermore, epistatic pleiotropy may allow past habitat use to influence future use of novel environments, thereby affecting disease emergence and populations' responses to habitat change.

Evolutionary genomics of host-use in bifurcating demes of RNA virus phi-6

BACKGROUND

Viruses are exceedingly diverse in their evolved strategies to manipulate hosts for viral replication. However, despite these differences, most virus populations will occasionally experience two commonly-encountered challenges: growth in variable host environments, and growth under fluctuating population sizes. We used the segmented RNA bacteriophage ϕ6 as a model for studying the evolutionary genomics of virus adaptation in the face of host switches and parametrically varying population sizes. To do so, we created a bifurcating deme structure that reflected lineage splitting in natural populations, allowing us to test whether phylogenetic algorithms could accurately resolve this 'known phylogeny'. The resulting tree yielded 32 clones at the tips and internal nodes; these strains were fully sequenced and measured for phenotypic changes in selected traits (fitness on original and novel hosts).

RESULTS

We observed that RNA segment size was negatively correlated with the extent of molecular change in the imposed treatments; molecular substitutions tended to cluster on the Small and Medium RNA chromosomes of the virus, and not on the Large segment. Our study yielded a very large molecular and phenotypic dataset, fostering possible inferences on genotype-phenotype associations. Using further experimental evolution, we confirmed an inference on the unanticipated role of an allelic switch in a viral assembly protein, which governed viral performance across host environments.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that varying complexities can be simultaneously incorporated into experimental evolution, to examine the combined effects of population size, and adaptation in novel environments. The imposed bifurcating structure revealed that some methods for phylogenetic reconstruction failed to resolve the true phylogeny, owing to a paucity of molecular substitutions separating the RNA viruses that evolved in our study.

Repeatability and contingency in the evolution of a key innovation in phage lambda

The processes responsible for the evolution of key innovations, whereby lineages acquire qualitatively new functions that expand their ecological opportunities, remain poorly understood. We examined how a virus, bacteriophage λ, evolved to infect its host, Escherichia coli, through a novel pathway. Natural selection promoted the fixation of mutations in the virus's host-recognition protein, J, that improved fitness on the original receptor, LamB, and set the stage for other mutations that allowed infection through a new receptor, OmpF. These viral mutations arose after the host evolved reduced expression of LamB, whereas certain other host mutations prevented the phage from evolving the new function. This study shows the complex interplay between genomic processes and ecological conditions that favor the emergence of evolutionary innovations.

Combining mathematics and empirical data to predict emergence of RNA viruses that differ in reservoir use

RNA viruses may be particularly capable of contributing to the increasing biomedical problem of infectious disease emergence. Empirical studies and epidemiological models are informative for the understanding of evolutionary processes that promote pathogen emergence, but rarely are these approaches combined in the same study. Here, we used an epidemiology model containing observations of pathogen productivity in reservoirs, as a means to predict which pathogens should be most prone to emerge in a primary host such as humans. We employed as a model system a collection of vesicular stomatitis virus populations that had previously diverged in host-use strategy: specialists, directly selected generalists and indirectly selected (fortuitous) generalists. Using data from experiments where these viral strategists were challenged to grow on unencountered novel hosts in vitro, logistic growth models determined that the directly selected generalist viruses tended to grow best on model reservoirs. Furthermore, when we used the growth data to estimate average reproductive rate across secondary reservoirs, we showed that the combined approach could be used to estimate relative success of the differing virus strategists when encountering a primary host. Our study suggests that synergistic approaches combining epidemiological modelling with empirical data from experimental evolution may be useful for developing efforts to predict which types of pathogens pose the greatest probability of emerging in the future.

Experimental evidence that source genetic variation drives pathogen emergence

A pathogen can readily mutate to infect new host types, but this does not guarantee successful establishment in the new habitat. What factors, then, dictate emergence success? One possibility is that the pathogen population cannot sustain itself on the new host type (i.e. host is a sink), but migration from a source population allows adaptive sustainability and eventual emergence by delivering beneficial mutations sampled from the source's standing genetic variation. This idea is relevant regardless of whether the sink host is truly novel (host shift) or whether the sink is an existing or related, similar host population thriving under conditions unfavourable to pathogen persistence (range expansion). We predicted that sink adaptation should occur faster under range expansion than during a host shift owing to the effects of source genetic variation on pathogen adaptability in the sink. Under range expansion, source migration should benefit emergence in the sink because selection acting on source and sink populations is likely to be congruent. By contrast, during host shifts, source migration is likely to disrupt emergence in the sink owing to uncorrelated selection or performance tradeoffs across host types. We tested this hypothesis by evolving bacteriophage populations on novel host bacteria under sink conditions, while manipulating emergence via host shift versus range expansion. Controls examined sink adaptation when unevolved founding genotypes served as migrants. As predicted, adaptability was fastest under range expansion, and controls did not adapt. Large, similar and similarly timed increases in fitness were observed in the host-shift populations, despite declines in mean fitness of immigrants through time. These results suggest that source populations are the origin of mutations that drive adaptive emergence at the edge of a pathogen's ecological or geographical range.

Risk factors for the evolutionary emergence of pathogens

Recent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases (e.g. SARS, influenza H1N1) have highlighted the threat of cross-species pathogen transmission. When first introduced to a population, a pathogen is often poorly adapted to its new host and must evolve in order to escape extinction. Theoretical arguments and empirical studies have suggested various factors to explain why some pathogens emerge and others do not, including host contact structure, pathogen adaptive pathways and mutation rates. Using a multi-type branching process, we model the spread of an introduced pathogen evolving through several strains. Extending previous models, we use a network-based approach to separate host contact patterns from pathogen transmissibility. We also allow for arbitrary adaptive pathways. These generalizations lead to novel predictions regarding the impact of hypothesized risk factors. Pathogen fitness depends on the host population in which it circulates, and the ‘riskiest’ contact distribution and adaptive pathway depend on initial transmissibility. Emergence probability is sensitive to mutation probabilities and number of adaptive steps required, with the possibility of large adaptive steps (e.g. simultaneous point mutations or recombination) having a dramatic effect. In most situations, increasing overall mutation probability increases the risk of emergence; however, notable exceptions arise when deleterious mutations are available.