Allele fixation in a dynamic metapopulation: founder effects vs refuge effects

Past connections with the mainland structure patterns of insular species richness in a continental-shelf archipelago (Aegean Sea, Greece)

Recent research in island biogeography has highlighted the important role of late Quaternary sea-level fluctuations in shaping biogeographic patterns in insular systems but focused on oceanic systems. Through this study, we aim investigate how late Quaternary sea-level fluctuations shaped species richness patterns in continental-shelf island systems. Focusing on the Aegean archipelago, we first compiled maps of the area's geography using published data, under three sea-level stands: (a) current; (b) median sea-level over the last nine glacial-interglacial cycles (MSL); and (c) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We gathered taxon-island occurrences for multiple chorotypes of angiosperms, butterflies, centipedes, and reptiles. We investigated the impact of present-day and past geographic settings on chorological groups by analyzing island species-area relationships (ISARs) and using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) selection based on multiple metrics of goodness of fit. Our results confirm that the Aegean's geography has changed dramatically since the LGM, whereas the MSL only modestly differs from the present configuration. Apart for centipedes, paleogeographic changes affected both native and endemic species diversity through altering connections between land-bridge islands and the mainland. On land-bridge islands, we detected over-representation of native species and under-representation of endemics. Unlike oceanic islands, sea-level-driven increase of isolation and area contraction did not strongly shape patterns of species richness. Furthermore, the LGM configurations rather than the MSL configuration shaped patterns of endemic species richness. This suggests that even short episodes of increased connectivity with continental populations are sufficient to counteract the genetic differentiation of insular populations. On the other hand, the over-representation of native nonendemic species on land-bridge islands reflected MSL rather than LGM mainland connections. Our study shows that in terms of processes affecting species richness patterns, continental archipelagos differ fundamentally from oceanic systems because episodic connections with the mainland have profound effects on the biota of land-bridge islands.

The differential genetic signatures related to climatic landscapes for jaguars and pumas on a continental scale

Modern and paleoclimate changes may have altered species dynamics by shifting species' niche suitability over space and time. We analyze whether the current genetic structure and isolation of the two large American felids, jaguar (Panthera onca) and puma (Puma concolor), are mediated by changes in climatic suitability and connection routes over modern and paleoclimatic landscapes. We estimate species distribution under 5 climatic landscapes (modern, Holocene, last maximum glaciations [LMG], average suitability, and climatic instability) and correlate them with individuals' genetic isolation through causal modeling on a resemblance matrix. Both species exhibit genetic isolation patterns correlated with LMG climatic suitability, suggesting that these areas may have worked as "allele refuges." However, the jaguar showed higher vulnerability to climate changes, responding to modern climatic suitability and connection routes, whereas the puma showed a continuous and gradual transition of genetic variation. Despite differential responsiveness to climate change, both species are subjected to the climatic effects on genetic configuration, which may make them susceptible to future climatic changes, since these are progressing faster and with higher intensity than changes in the paleoclimate. Thus, the effects of climatic changes should be considered in the design of conservation strategies to ensure evolutionary and demographic processes mediated by gene flow for both species.

The Coalescent in Peripatric Metapopulations

We consider a dynamic metapopulation involving one large population of size N surrounded by colonies of size εNN, usually called peripheral isolates in ecology, where N → ∞ and εN → 0 in such a way that εNN → ∞. The main population, as well as the colonies, independently send propagules to found new colonies (emigration), and each colony independently, eventually merges with the main population (fusion). Our aim is to study the genealogical history of a finite number of lineages sampled at stationarity in such a metapopulation. We make assumptions on model parameters ensuring that the total outer population has size of the order of N and that each colony has a lifetime of the same order. We prove that under these assumptions, the scaling limit of the genealogical process of a finite sample is a censored coalescent where each lineage can be in one of two states: an inner lineage (belonging to the main population) or an outer lineage (belonging to some peripheral isolate). Lineages change state at constant rate and (only) inner lineages coalesce at constant rate per pair. This two-state censored coalescent is also shown to converge weakly, as the landscape dynamics accelerate, to a time-changed Kingman coalescent.

Modelling the drivers of the spread of Plasmodium falciparum hrp2 gene deletions in sub-Saharan Africa

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have transformed malaria diagnosis. The most prevalent P. falciparum RDTs detect histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2). However, pfhrp2 gene deletions yielding false-negative RDTs, first reported in South America in 2010, have been confirmed in Africa and Asia. We developed a mathematical model to explore the potential for RDT-led diagnosis to drive selection of pfhrp2-deleted parasites. Low malaria prevalence and high frequencies of people seeking treatment resulted in the greatest selection pressure. Calibrating our model against confirmed pfhrp2-deletions in the Democratic Republic of Congo, we estimate a starting frequency of 6% pfhrp2-deletion prior to RDT introduction. Furthermore, the patterns observed necessitate a degree of selection driven by the introduction of PfHRP2-based RDT-guided treatment. Combining this with parasite prevalence and treatment coverage estimates, we map the model-predicted spread of pfhrp2-deletion, and identify the geographic regions in which surveillance for pfhrp2-deletion should be prioritised.

The Biogeography of Adaptive Radiations and the Geographic Overlap of Sister Species

The biogeography of speciation and what can be learned about the past mode of speciation from current biogeography of sister species are recurrent problems in evolution. We used a trait- and individual-based, eco-evolutionary model to simulate adaptive radiations and recorded the geographical overlap of species during and after evolutionary branching (speciation). We compared the spatial overlap among sister species in the fully saturated community with the overlap at the speciation event. The mean geographic overlap at speciation varied continuously from complete (sympatry) to none (allopatry), depending on local and regional environmental heterogeneity and the rate of dispersal. The distribution of overlap was, however, in some cases considerably bimodal. This tendency was most expressed at large values of regional heterogeneity, corresponding to sharp environmental contrasts. The mean geographic overlap also varied during the course of a radiation, sometimes with a consistent negative trend over time. The speciations that resulted in currently observable end community sister species were therefore not an unbiased sample of all speciations throughout the radiation. Postspeciation range shifts (causing increased overlap) occurred most frequently when dispersal was high or when local habitat heterogeneity was low. Our results help us understand how the patterns of geographic mode of speciation emerge. We also show the difficulty in inferring the geographical speciation mode from phylogenies and the biogeography of extant species.

The Coalescent in Peripatric Metapopulations

We consider a dynamic metapopulation involving one large population of sizeNsurrounded by colonies of size εNN, usually called peripheral isolates in ecology, whereN→ ∞ and εN→ 0 in such a way that εNN→ ∞. The main population, as well as the colonies, independently send propagules to found new colonies (emigration), and each colony independently, eventually merges with the main population (fusion). Our aim is to study the genealogical history of a finite number of lineages sampled at stationarity in such a metapopulation. We make assumptions on model parameters ensuring that the total outer population has size of the order ofNand that each colony has a lifetime of the same order. We prove that under these assumptions, the scaling limit of the genealogical process of a finite sample is a censored coalescent where each lineage can be in one of two states: an inner lineage (belonging to the main population) or an outer lineage (belonging to some peripheral isolate). Lineages change state at constant rate and (only) inner lineages coalesce at constant rate per pair. This two-state censored coalescent is also shown to converge weakly, as the landscape dynamics accelerate, to a time-changed Kingman coalescent.

Microevolutionary events involving narrow host plasmids influences local fixation of vancomycin-resistance in Enterococcus populations

Vancomycin-resistance in enterococci (VRE) is associated with isolates within ST18, ST17, ST78 Enterococcus faecium (Efm) and ST6 Enterococcus faecalis (Efs) human adapted lineages. Despite of its global spread, vancomycin resistance rates in enterococcal populations greatly vary temporally and geographically. Portugal is one of the European countries where Tn1546 (vanA) is consistently found in a variety of environments. A comprehensive multi-hierarchical analysis of VRE isolates (75 Efm and 29 Efs) from Portuguese hospitals and aquatic surroundings (1996–2008) was performed to clarify the local dynamics of VRE. Clonal relatedness was established by PFGE and MLST while plasmid characterization comprised the analysis of known relaxases, rep initiator proteins and toxin-antitoxin systems (TA) by PCR-based typing schemes, RFLP comparison, hybridization and sequencing. Tn1546 variants were characterized by PCR overlapping/sequencing. Intra- and inter-hospital dissemination of Efm ST18, ST132 and ST280 and Efs ST6 clones, carrying rolling-circle (pEFNP1/pRI1) and theta-replicating (pCIZ2-like, Inc18, pHTβ-like, two pRUM-variants, pLG1-like, and pheromone-responsive) plasmids was documented. Tn1546 variants, mostly containing ISEf1 or IS1216, were located on plasmids (30–150 kb) with a high degree of mosaicism and heterogeneous RFLP patterns that seem to have resulted from the interplay between broad host Inc18 plasmids (pIP501, pRE25, pEF1), and narrow host RepA_N plasmids (pRUM, pAD1-like). TAs of Inc18 (ω-ε-ζ) and pRUM (Axe-Txe) plasmids were infrequently detected. Some plasmid chimeras were persistently recovered over years from different clonal lineages. This work represents the first multi-hierarchical analysis of VRE, revealing a frequent recombinatorial diversification of a limited number of interacting clonal backgrounds, plasmids and transposons at local scale. These interactions provide a continuous process of parapatric clonalization driving a full exploration of the local adaptive landscape, which might assure long-term maintenance of resistant clones and eventually fixation of Tn1546 in particular geographic areas.

Antibiotic resistance shaping multi-level population biology of bacteria

Antibiotics have natural functions, mostly involving cell-to-cell signaling networks. The anthropogenic production of antibiotics, and its release in the microbiosphere results in a disturbance of these networks, antibiotic resistance tending to preserve its integrity. The cost of such adaptation is the emergence and dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes, and of all genetic and cellular vehicles in which these genes are located. Selection of the combinations of the different evolutionary units (genes, integrons, transposons, plasmids, cells, communities and microbiomes, hosts) is highly asymmetrical. Each unit of selection is a self-interested entity, exploiting the higher hierarchical unit for its own benefit, but in doing so the higher hierarchical unit might acquire critical traits for its spread because of the exploitation of the lower hierarchical unit. This interactive trade-off shapes the population biology of antibiotic resistance, a composed-complex array of the independent "population biologies." Antibiotics modify the abundance and the interactive field of each of these units. Antibiotics increase the number and evolvability of "clinical" antibiotic resistance genes, but probably also many other genes with different primary functions but with a resistance phenotype present in the environmental resistome. Antibiotics influence the abundance, modularity, and spread of integrons, transposons, and plasmids, mostly acting on structures present before the antibiotic era. Antibiotics enrich particular bacterial lineages and clones and contribute to local clonalization processes. Antibiotics amplify particular genetic exchange communities sharing antibiotic resistance genes and platforms within microbiomes. In particular human or animal hosts, the microbiomic composition might facilitate the interactions between evolutionary units involved in antibiotic resistance. The understanding of antibiotic resistance implies expanding our knowledge on multi-level population biology of bacteria.

The probability of evolutionary rescue: towards a quantitative comparison between theory and evolution experiments

Evolutionary rescue occurs when a population genetically adapts to a new stressful environment that would otherwise cause its extinction. Forecasting the probability of persistence under stress, including emergence of drug resistance as a special case of interest, requires experimentally validated quantitative predictions. Here, we propose general analytical predictions, based on diffusion approximations, for the probability of evolutionary rescue. We assume a narrow genetic basis for adaptation to stress, as is often the case for drug resistance. First, we extend the rescue model of Orr & Unckless (Am. Nat. 2008 172, 160-169) to a broader demographic and genetic context, allowing the model to apply to empirical systems with variation among mutation effects on demography, overlapping generations and bottlenecks, all common features of microbial populations. Second, we confront our predictions of rescue probability with two datasets from experiments with Saccharomyces cerevisiae (yeast) and Pseudomonas fluorescens (bacterium). The tests show the qualitative agreement between the model and observed patterns, and illustrate how biologically relevant quantities, such as the per capita rate of rescue, can be estimated from fits of empirical data. Finally, we use the results of the model to suggest further, more quantitative, tests of evolutionary rescue theory.

Adaptive radiation driven by the interplay of eco-evolutionary and landscape dynamics

We investigate an individual-based model of adaptive radiation based on the biogeographical changes of the Great African Lakes where cichlid fishes radiated. In our model, the landscape consists of a mosaic of three habitat types which may or may not be separated by geographic barriers. We study the effect of the alternation between allopatry and sympatry called landscape dynamics. We show that landscape dynamics can generate a significantly higher diversity than allopatric or sympatric speciation alone. Diversification is mainly due to the joint action of allopatric, ecological divergence, and of disruptive selection increasing assortative mating and allowing for the coexistence in sympatry of species following reinforcement or character displacement. Landscape dynamics possibly increase diversity at each landscape change. The characteristics of the radiation depend on the speed of landscape dynamics and of the number of geographically isolated regions at steady state. Under fast dynamics of a landscape with many fragments, the model predicts a high diversity, possibly subject to the temporary collapse of all species into a hybrid swarm. When fast landscape dynamics induce the recurrent fusion of several sites, diversity is moderate but very stable over time. Under slow landscape dynamics, diversification proceeds similarly, although at a slower pace.

Mitochondrial diversity patterns and the Magdalenian resettlement of Europe: new insights from the edge of the Franco-Cantabrian refuge

Phylogeography of the mitochondrial lineages commonly found in Western Europe can be interpreted in the light of a postglacial resettlement of the continent. The center of this proposal lies in the Franco-Cantabrian glacial refuge, located in the northern Iberian Peninsula and Southwestern France. Recently, this interpretation has been confronted by the unexpected patterns of diversity found in some European haplogroups. To shed new lights on this issue, research on Iberian populations is crucial if events behind the actual genetics of the European continent are to be untangled. In this regard, the region of Asturias has not been extensively studied, despite its convoluted history with prolonged periods of isolation. As mitochondrial DNA is a kind of data that has been commonly used in human population genetics, we conducted a thorough regional study in which we collected buccal swabs from 429 individuals with confirmed Asturian ancestry. The joint analysis of these sequences with a large continent-wide database and previously published diversity patterns allowed us to discuss a new explanation for the population dynamics inside the Franco-Cantabrian area, based on range expansion theory. This approximation to previously contradictory findings has made them compatible with most proposals about the postglacial resettlement of Western Europe.

Ecological speciation in dynamic landscapes

Although verbal theories of speciation consider landscape changes, ecological speciation is usually modelled in a fixed geographical arrangement. Yet landscape changes occur, at different spatio-temporal scales, due to geological, climatic or ecological processes, and these changes result in repeated divisions and reconnections of populations. We examine the effect of such landscape dynamics on speciation. We use a stochastic, sexual population model with polygenic inheritance, embedded in a landscape dynamics model (allopatry-sympatry oscillations). We show that, under stabilizing selection, allopatry easily generates diversity, but species coexistence is evolutionarily unsustainable. Allopatry produces refuges whose persistence depends on the characteristic time scales of the landscape dynamics. Under disruptive selection, assuming that sympatric speciation is impossible due to Mendelian inheritance, allopatry is necessary for ecological differentiation. The completion of reproductive isolation, by reinforcement, then requires several sympatric phases. These results demonstrate that the succession of past, current and future geographical arrangements considerably influence the speciation process.

Effective population size is positively correlated with levels of adaptive divergence among annual sunflowers

The role of adaptation in the divergence of lineages has long been a central question in evolutionary biology, and as multilocus sequence data sets have become available for a wide range of taxa, empirical estimates of levels of adaptive molecular evolution are increasingly common. Estimates vary widely among taxa, with high levels of adaptive evolution in Drosophila, bacteria, and viruses but very little evidence of widespread adaptive evolution in hominids. Although estimates in plants are more limited, some recent work has suggested that rates of adaptive evolution in a range of plant taxa are surprisingly low and that there is little association between adaptive evolution and effective population size in contrast to patterns seen in other taxa. Here, we analyze data from 35 loci for six sunflower species that vary dramatically in effective population size. We find that rates of adaptive evolution are positively correlated with effective population size in these species, with a significant fraction of amino acid substitutions driven by positive selection in the species with the largest effective population sizes but little or no evidence of adaptive evolution in species with smaller effective population sizes. Although other factors likely contribute as well, in sunflowers effective population size appears to be an important determinant of rates of adaptive evolution.

Under which conditions is character displacement a likely outcome of secondary contact?

Sympatric character displacement is one possible mechanism that prevents competitive exclusion. This mechanism is thought to be behind the radiation of Darwin's finches, where character displacement is assumed to have followed secondary contact of ecologically similar species. We use a model to evaluate under which ecological and environmental conditions this mechanism is likely. Using the adaptive dynamics theory, we analyse different ecological models embedded in the secondary contact scenario. We highlight two necessary conditions for character displacement in sympatry: (i) very strong premating isolation between the two populations, and (ii) secondary contact to occur at an evolutionary branching point. Character displacement is then driven by adaptation to interspecific competition. We determine how ecological and environmental parameters influence the probability of ecological divergence. Finally, we discuss the likelihood of sympatric character displacement under disruptive selection in natural populations.