On equilibrium properties of evolutionary multi-player games with random payoff matrices

Herd behavior in public goods games

The problem of free-riding arises when individuals benefit from a shared resource, service, or public good without contributing proportionately to its provision. This conduct often leads to a collective action problem, as individuals pursue personal gains while relying on the contributions of others. In this study, we present a Bayesian inference model to elucidate the behavior of participants in a public goods game, a conceptual framework that captures the essence of the free-riding problem. Here, individuals possess information on the distribution of group donations to the public good. Our model is grounded in the premise that individuals strive to harmonise their actions with the group's donation patterns. Our model is able to replicate behavioral patterns that resemble those observed in experiments with midsized groups (100 people), but fails to replicate those for larger scales (1000 people). Our results suggest that, in these scenarios, humans prefer imitation and convergence behaviors over profit optimization. These insights contribute to understanding how cooperation is achieved through alignment with group behavior.

Spatial structure could explain the maintenance of alternative reproductive tactics in tree cricket males

Trait polymorphisms are widespread in nature, and explaining their stable co-existence is a central problem in ecology and evolution. Alternative reproductive tactics, in which individuals of one or more sex exhibit discrete, discontinuous traits in response to reproductive competition, represent a special case of trait polymorphism in which the traits are often complex, behavioural, and dynamic. Thus, studying how alternative reproductive tactics are maintained may provide general insights into how complex trait polymorphisms are maintained in populations. We construct a spatially explicit individual-based model inspired from extensively collected empirical data to address the mechanisms behind the co-existence of three behavioural alternative reproductive tactics in males of a tree cricket (Oecanthus henryi). Our results show that the co-existence of these tactics over ecological time scales is facilitated by the spatial structure of the landscape they inhabit, which serves to equalise the otherwise unequal mating benefits of the three tactics. We also show that this co-existence is unlikely if spatial aspects of the system are not considered. Our findings highlight the importance of spatial dynamics in understanding ecological and evolutionary processes and underscore the power of integrative approaches that combine models with empirical data.

Interpersonal trust: Asymptotic analysis of a stochastic coordination game with multi-agent learning

We study the interpersonal trust of a population of agents, asking whether chance may decide if a population ends up with high trust or low trust. We model this by a discrete time, stochastic coordination game with pairwise interactions occurring at random in a finite population. Agents learn about the behavior of the population using a weighted average of what they have observed in past interactions. This learning rule, called an "exponential moving average," has one parameter that determines the weight of the most recent observation and may, thus, be interpreted as the agent's memory. We prove analytically that in the long run, the whole population always either trusts or doubts with the probability one. This remains true when the expectation of the dynamics would indicate otherwise. By simulation, we study the impact of the distribution of the payoff matrix and of the memory of the agents. We find that as the agent memory increases (i.e., the most recent observation weighs less), the actual dynamics increasingly resemble the expectation of the process. We conclude that it is possible that a population may converge upon high or low trust between its citizens simply by chance, though the game parameters (context of the society) may be quite telling.

Reputation effects drive the joint evolution of cooperation and social rewarding

People routinely cooperate with each other, even when cooperation is costly. To further encourage such pro-social behaviors, recipients often respond by providing additional incentives, for example by offering rewards. Although such incentives facilitate cooperation, the question remains how these incentivizing behaviors themselves evolve, and whether they would always be used responsibly. Herein, we consider a simple model to systematically study the co-evolution of cooperation and different rewarding policies. In our model, both social and antisocial behaviors can be rewarded, but individuals gain a reputation for how they reward others. By characterizing the game’s equilibria and by simulating evolutionary learning processes, we find that reputation effects systematically favor cooperation and social rewarding. While our baseline model applies to pairwise interactions in well-mixed populations, we obtain similar conclusions under assortment, or when individuals interact in larger groups. According to our model, rewards are most effective when they sway others to cooperate. This view is consistent with empirical observations suggesting that people reward others to ultimately benefit themselves.

Rewards can motivate people to cooperate, but the evolution of rewarding behavior is itself poorly understood. Here, a game-theoretic analysis shows that reputation effects facilitate the simultaneous evolution of cooperation and social rewarding policies.

Emergent behaviours in multi-agent systems with Evolutionary Game Theory

The mechanisms of emergence and evolution of collective behaviours in dynamical Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) of multiple interacting agents, with diverse behavioral strategies in co-presence, have been undergoing mathematical study via Evolutionary Game Theory (EGT). Their systematic study also resorts to agent-based modelling and simulation (ABM) techniques, thus enabling the study of aforesaid mechanisms under a variety of conditions, parameters, and alternative virtual games. This paper summarises some main research directions and challenges tackled in our group, using methods from EGT and ABM. These range from the introduction of cognitive and emotional mechanisms into agents’ implementation in an evolving MAS, to the cost-efficient interference for promoting prosocial behaviours in complex networks, to the regulation and governance of AI safety development ecology, and to the equilibrium analysis of random evolutionary multi-player games. This brief aims to sensitize the reader to EGT based issues, results and prospects, which are accruing in importance for the modeling of minds with machines and the engineering of prosocial behaviours in dynamical MAS, with impact on our understanding of the emergence and stability of collective behaviours. In all cases, important open problems in MAS research as viewed or prioritised by the group are described.

Criticality and Griffiths phases in random games with quenched disorder

The perceived risk and reward for a given situation can vary depending on resource availability, accumulated wealth, and other extrinsic factors such as individual backgrounds. Based on this general aspect of everyday life, here we use evolutionary game theory to model a scenario with randomly perturbed payoffs in a prisoner's dilemma game. The perception diversity is modeled by adding a zero-average random noise in the payoff entries and a Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the population dynamics. This payoff heterogeneity can promote and maintain cooperation in a competitive scenario where only defectors would survive otherwise. In this work, we give a step further, understanding the role of heterogeneity by investigating the effects of quenched disorder in the critical properties of random games. We observe that payoff fluctuations induce a very slow dynamic, making the cooperation decay behave as power laws with varying exponents, instead of the usual exponential decay after the critical point, showing the emergence of a Griffiths phase. We also find a symmetric Griffiths phase near the defector's extinction point when fluctuations are present, indicating that Griffiths phases may be frequent in evolutionary game dynamics and play a role in the coexistence of different strategies.

Amplitude death in coupled replicator map lattice: Averting migration dilemma

Populations composed of a collection of subpopulations (demes) with random migration between them are quite common occurrences. The emergence and sustenance of cooperation in such a population is a highly researched topic in the evolutionary game theory. If the individuals in every deme are considered to be either cooperators or defectors, the migration dilemma can be envisaged: The cooperators would not want to migrate to a defector-rich deme as they fear of facing exploitation; but without migration, cooperation cannot be established throughout the network of demes. With a view to studying the aforementioned scenario, in this paper, we set up a theoretical model consisting of a coupled map lattice of replicator maps based on two-player-two-strategy games. The replicator map considered is capable of showing a variety of evolutionary outcomes, like convergent (fixed point) outcomes and nonconvergent (periodic and chaotic) outcomes. Furthermore, this coupled network of the replicator maps undergoes the phenomenon of amplitude death leading to nonoscillatory stable synchronized states. We specifically explore the effect of (i) the nature of coupling that models migration between the maps, (ii) the heterogenous demes (in the sense that not all the demes have the same game being played by the individuals), (iii) the degree of the network, and (iv) the cost associated with the migration. In the course of investigation, we are intrigued by the effectiveness of the random migration in sustaining a uniform cooperator fraction across a population irrespective of the details of the replicator dynamics and the interaction among the demes.

Strategy equilibrium in dilemma games with off-diagonal payoff perturbations

We analyze the strategy equilibrium of dilemma games considering a payoff matrix affected by small and random perturbations on the off-diagonal. Notably, a recent work [Proc. R. Soc. A 476, 20200116 (2020)1364-502110.1098/rspa.2020.0116] reported that while cooperation is sustained by perturbations acting on the main diagonal, a less clear scenario emerges when perturbations act on the off-diagonal. Thus, the second case represents the core of this investigation, aimed at completing the description of the effects that payoff perturbations have on the dynamics of evolutionary games. Our results, achieved by analyzing the proposed model under a variety of configurations as different update rules, suggest that off-diagonal perturbations actually constitute a nontrivial form of noise. In particular, the most interesting effects are detected near the phase transition, as perturbations tend to move the strategy distribution towards nonordered states of equilibrium, supporting cooperation when defection is pervading the population, and supporting defection in the opposite case. To conclude, we identified a form of noise that, under controlled conditions, could be used to enhance cooperation and greatly delay its extinction.

Heterogeneity in evolutionary games: an analysis of the risk perception

In this study, we analyse the relationship between heterogeneity and cooperation. Previous investigations suggest that this relation is non-trivial, as some authors found that heterogeneity sustains cooperation, while others obtained different results. Among the possible forms of heterogeneity, we focus on the individual perception of risks and rewards related to a generic event, which can appear in a number of social and biological systems. The modelling approach is based on the framework of evolutionary game theory. To represent this kind of heterogeneity, we implement small and local perturbations on the pay-off matrix of simple two-strategy games, such as the Prisoner's Dilemma. So, while usually the pay-off is considered to be a global and time-invariant structure, i.e. it is the same for all individuals of a population at any time, in our model its value is continuously affected by small variations, in both time and space (i.e. position on a lattice). We found that such perturbations can be beneficial or detrimental to cooperation, depending on their setting. Notably, cooperation is strongly supported when perturbations act on the main diagonal of the pay-off matrix, whereas when they act on the off-diagonal the resulting effect is more difficult to quantify. To conclude, the proposed model shows a rich spectrum of possible equilibria, whose interpretation might offer insights and enrich the description of several systems.

Persistence probability of a random polynomial arising from evolutionary game theory

We obtain an asymptotic formula for the persistence probability in the positive real line of a random polynomial arising from evolutionary game theory. It corresponds to the probability that a multi-player two-strategy random evolutionary game has no internal equilibria. The key ingredient is to approximate the sequence of random polynomials indexed by their degrees by an appropriate centered stationary Gaussian process.

Evolutionary dynamics of complex multiple games

Evolutionary game theory has been successful in describing phenomena from bacterial population dynamics to the evolution of social behaviour. However, it has typically focused on a single game describing the interactions between individuals. Organisms are simultaneously involved in many intraspecies and interspecies interactions. Therefore, there is a need to move from single games to multiple games. However, these interactions in nature involve many players. Shifting from 2-player games to multiple multiplayer games yield richer dynamics closer to natural settings. Such a complete picture of multiple game dynamics (MGD), where multiple players are involved, was lacking. For multiple multiplayer games—where each game could have an arbitrary finite number of players and strategies, we provide a replicator equation for MGD having many players and strategies. We show that if the individual games involved have more than two strategies, then the combined dynamics cannot be understood by looking only at individual games. Expected dynamics from single games is no longer valid, and trajectories can possess different limiting behaviour. In the case of finite populations, we formulate and calculate an essential and useful stochastic property, fixation probability. Our results highlight that studying a set of interactions defined by a single game can be misleading if we do not take the broader setting of the interactions into account. Through our results and analysis, we thus discuss and advocate the development of evolutionary game(s) theory, which will help us disentangle the complexity of multiple interactions.

Group size effects and critical mass in public goods games

Understanding whether the size of the interacting group has an effect on cooperative behavior has been a major topic of debate since the seminal works on cooperation in the 1960s. Half a century later, scholars have yet to reach a consensus, with some arguing that cooperation is harder in larger groups, while others that cooperation is easier in larger groups, and yet others that cooperation attains its maximum in intermediate size groups. Here we add to this field of work by reporting a two-treatment empirical study where subjects play a Public Goods Game with a Critical Mass, such that the return for full cooperation increases linearly for early contributions and then stabilizes after a critical mass is reached (the two treatments differ only on the critical mass). We choose this game for two reasons: it has been argued that it approximates real-life social dilemmas; previous work suggests that, in this case, group size might have an inverted-U effect on cooperation, where the pick of cooperation is reached around the critical mass. Our main innovation with respect to previous experiments is that we implement a within-subject design, such that the same subject plays in groups of different size (from 5 to 40 subjects). Groups are formed at random at every round and there is no feedback. This allows us to explore if and how subjects change their choice as a function of the size of the group. We report three main results, which partially contrast what has been suggested by previous work: in our setting (i) the critical mass has no effect on cooperation; (ii) group size has a positive effect on cooperation; (iii) the most chosen option (played by about 50% of the subjects) is All Defection, followed by All Cooperation (about 10% of the subjects), whereas the rest have a slight trend to switch preferentially from defection to cooperation as the group size increases.

On the distribution of the number of internal equilibria in random evolutionary games

The analysis of equilibrium points is of great importance in evolutionary game theory with numerous practical ramifications in ecology, population genetics, social sciences, economics and computer science. In contrast to previous analytical approaches which primarily focus on computing the expected number of internal equilibria, in this paper we study the distribution of the number of internal equilibria in a multi-player two-strategy random evolutionary game. We derive for the first time a closed formula for the probability that the game has a certain number of internal equilibria, for both normal and uniform distributions of the game payoff entries. In addition, using Descartes' rule of signs and combinatorial methods, we provide several universal upper and lower bound estimates for this probability, which are independent of the underlying payoff distribution. We also compare our analytical results with those obtained from extensive numerical simulations. Many results of this paper are applicable to a wider class of random polynomials that are not necessarily from evolutionary games.

Cost-effective external interference for promoting the evolution of cooperation

The problem of promoting the evolution of cooperative behaviour within populations of self-regarding individuals has been intensively investigated across diverse fields of behavioural, social and computational sciences. In most studies, cooperation is assumed to emerge from the combined actions of participating individuals within the populations, without taking into account the possibility of external interference and how it can be performed in a cost-efficient way. Here, we bridge this gap by studying a cost-efficient interference model based on evolutionary game theory, where an exogenous decision-maker aims to ensure high levels of cooperation from a population of individuals playing the one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma, at a minimal cost. We derive analytical conditions for which an interference scheme or strategy can guarantee a given level of cooperation while at the same time minimising the total cost of investment (for rewarding cooperative behaviours), and show that the results are highly sensitive to the intensity of selection by interference. Interestingly, we show that a simple class of interference that makes investment decisions based on the population composition can lead to significantly more cost-efficient outcomes than standard institutional incentive strategies, especially in the case of weak selection.

Disentangling eco-evolutionary effects on trait fixation

In population genetics, fixation of traits in a demographically changing population under frequency-independent selection has been extensively analysed. In evolutionary game theory, models of fixation have typically focused on fixed population sizes and frequency-dependent selection. A combination of demographic fluctuations with frequency-dependent interactions such as Lotka-Volterra dynamics has received comparatively little attention. We consider a stochastic, competitive Lotka-Volterra model with higher order interactions between two traits. The emerging individual-based model allows for stochastic fluctuations in the frequencies of the two traits and the total population size. We calculate the fixation probability of a trait under differing competition coefficients. This fixation probability resembles, qualitatively, the deterministic evolutionary dynamics. Furthermore, we partially disentangle the selection effects into their ecological and evolutionary components. We find that changing the evolutionary selection strength also changes the population dynamics and vice versa. Thus, a clean separation of the ecological and evolutionary effects is not possible. Instead, our results imply a nested interaction of the evolutionary and ecological effects. The entangled eco-evolutionary processes thus cannot be ignored when determining fixation properties in a co-evolutionary system.

Extreme Selection Unifies Evolutionary Game Dynamics in Finite and Infinite Populations

We show that when selection is extreme-the fittest strategy always reproduces or is imitated-the unequivalence between the possible evolutionary game scenarios in finite and infinite populations resolves, in the sense that the three generic outcomes-dominance, coexistence, and mutual exclusion-emerge in well-mixed populations of any size. We consider the simplest setting of a 2-player-2-strategy symmetric game and the two most common microscopic definitions of strategy spreading-the frequency-dependent Moran process and the imitation process by pairwise comparison-both in the case allowing any intensity of selection. We show that of the seven different invasion and fixation scenarios that are generically possible in finite populations-fixation being more or less likely to occur and rapid compared to the neutral game-the three that are possible in large populations are the same three that occur for sufficiently strong selection: (1) invasion and fast fixation of one strategy; (2) mutual invasion and slow fixation of one strategy; (3) no invasion and no fixation. Moreover (and interestingly), in the limit of extreme selection 2 becomes mutual invasion and no fixation, a case not possible for finite intensity of selection that better corresponds to the deterministic case of coexistence. In the extreme selection limit, we also derive the large population deterministic limit of the two considered stochastic processes.

Estimating the probability of coexistence in cross-feeding communities

The dynamics of many microbial ecosystems are driven by cross-feeding interactions, in which metabolites excreted by some species are metabolised further by others. The population dynamics of such ecosystems are governed by frequency-dependent selection, which allows for stable coexistence of two or more species. We have analysed a model of cross-feeding based on the replicator equation, with the aim of establishing criteria for coexistence in ecosystems containing three species, given the information of the three species' ability to coexist in their three separate pairs, i.e. the long term dynamics in the three two-species component systems. The triple-system is studied statistically and the probability of coexistence in the species triplet is computed for two models of species interactions. The interaction parameters are modelled either as stochastically independent or organised in a hierarchy where any derived metabolite carries less energy than previous nutrients in the metabolic chain. We differentiate between different modes of coexistence with respect to the pair-wise dynamics of the species, and find that the probability of coexistence is close to 12 for triplet systems with three pair-wise coexistent pairs and for the so-called intransitive systems. Systems with two and one pair-wise coexistent pairs are more likely to exist for random interaction parameters, but are on the other hand much less likely to exhibit triplet coexistence. Hence we conclude that certain species triplets are, from a statistical point of view, rare, but if allowed to interact are likely to coexist. This knowledge might be helpful when constructing synthetic microbial communities for industrial purposes.

Analysis of the expected density of internal equilibria in random evolutionary multi-player multi-strategy games

In this paper, we study the distribution and behaviour of internal equilibria in a d-player n-strategy random evolutionary game where the game payoff matrix is generated from normal distributions. The study of this paper reveals and exploits interesting connections between evolutionary game theory and random polynomial theory. The main contributions of the paper are some qualitative and quantitative results on the expected density, [Formula: see text], and the expected number, E(n, d), of (stable) internal equilibria. Firstly, we show that in multi-player two-strategy games, they behave asymptotically as [Formula: see text] as d is sufficiently large. Secondly, we prove that they are monotone functions of d. We also make a conjecture for games with more than two strategies. Thirdly, we provide numerical simulations for our analytical results and to support the conjecture. As consequences of our analysis, some qualitative and quantitative results on the distribution of zeros of a random Bernstein polynomial are also obtained.

Extrapolating weak selection in evolutionary games

In evolutionary games, reproductive success is determined by payoffs. Weak selection means that even large differences in game outcomes translate into small fitness differences. Many results have been derived using weak selection approximations, in which perturbation analysis facilitates the derivation of analytical results. Here, we ask whether results derived under weak selection are also qualitatively valid for intermediate and strong selection. By “qualitatively valid” we mean that the ranking of strategies induced by an evolutionary process does not change when the intensity of selection increases. For two-strategy games, we show that the ranking obtained under weak selection cannot be carried over to higher selection intensity if the number of players exceeds two. For games with three (or more) strategies, previous examples for multiplayer games have shown that the ranking of strategies can change with the intensity of selection. In particular, rank changes imply that the most abundant strategy at one intensity of selection can become the least abundant for another. We show that this applies already to pairwise interactions for a broad class of evolutionary processes. Even when both weak and strong selection limits lead to consistent predictions, rank changes can occur for intermediate intensities of selection. To analyze how common such games are, we show numerically that for randomly drawn two-player games with three or more strategies, rank changes frequently occur and their likelihood increases rapidly with the number of strategies . In particular, rank changes are almost certain for , which jeopardizes the predictive power of results derived for weak selection.

In evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations, selection intensity plays a key role in determining the impact of the game on reproductive success. Weak selection is often employed to obtain analytical results in evolutionary game theory. We investigate the validity of weak selection predictions for stronger intensities of selection. We prove that in general qualitative results obtained under weak selection fail to extend even to moderate selection strengths for games with either more than two strategies or more than two players. In particular, we find that even in pairwise interactions qualitative changes with changing selection intensity arise almost certainly in the case of a large number of strategies.