Understanding and overcoming obstacles in adaptive management

Exploring development of spatially stratified wind turbine collision risk prior distributions for eagles: An application of adaptive management

Adaptive management is often invoked, but infrequently implemented, as a management strategy for natural resource managers to learn from the decision-making process and reduce uncertainty over time. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) incorporates an adaptive management framework directly into their eagle permitting process to balance energy development with managing incidental eagle fatalities resulting from otherwise lawful activities. Specifically, the Service uses a collision risk model that combines prior probability distributions describing exposure and collision risk with site-specific data to predict eagle fatalities from wind energy facilities and prescribe compensatory mitigation. As new site-specific data become available, they can be incorporated into the existing prior probability distributions, allowing for more informed management decisions in the future. Here, we present and demonstrate flexibility of the adaptive management framework by exploring stratification of existing exposure prior distributions to better capture spatial variation in the abundance of bald and golden eagles within the coterminous U.S. We developed a low and high relative abundance exposure prior distribution for each species by binning site-specific exposure data according to the modeled year-round eBird relative abundance (i.e., two relative abundance strata) for each wind facility. We then used a leave one out cross-validation approach to determine how well exposure probability distributions captured site-specific eagle exposure data. For both species, the exposure rate within the stratum describing low relative abundance was lower compared to the previously developed nationwide prior distribution. The exposure rate for the high relative abundance stratum was similar to the previously developed nationwide prior distribution for both species. For both species and strata, the variance in exposure rate was greater than the variance of the previously developed nationwide priors. Results from our cross-validation suggest that our exposure prior distributions adequately capture the variation in eagle exposure rates within each stratum. Only 7% of the golden eagle exposure data-sets and 4% of the bald eagle data-sets within the high relative abundance stratum were not captured below the 95th quantile of the exposure distributions. By using stratified exposure probability distributions that vary with spatial variation in eagle density, the Service can provide more realistic pre-construction predictions of eagle fatalities, possibly guiding facility siting towards areas that represent a lower risk to eagles.

The Critical Social Processes for Standardising the Ecological Monitoring of Australian Landscapes

For a long time, ecological monitoring across Australia has utilised a wide variety of different methodologies resulting in data that is difficult to analyse across place or time. In response to these limitations, a new systematic approach to ecological monitoring has been developed in collaboration between the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network and the Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water - the Ecological Monitoring System Australia (EMSA). A qualitative approach involving focus groups and semi-structured interviews was undertaken to review perceptions of the introduction of the EMSA protocols amongst Natural Resource Management practitioners and other key stakeholders. We found that environmental management stakeholders recognise there will be many advantages from the standardisation of ecological monitoring. However, key concerns emerged regarding the capacity needed to implement the standard protocols, the utility of the resultant data for regional projects, and the scope for adaptive co-management under the EMSA. Stakeholders emphasised the need for autonomy and flexibility, so their participation in protocol development can facilitate regional adoption of the standards. Respondents' concerns about a perceived lack of genuine consultation and acknowledgement of feedback revealed the importance of clear communication at all stages of an environmental management project aiming to standardise practices. Our findings indicate that reflexivity will be vital to address the complexity involved in standardisation of ecological monitoring. Formal processes of social learning will need to be integrated into environmental management approaches to account for the increasing complexity of socio-ecological systems as they are challenged by global change.

From virtually extinct to superabundant in 35 years: establishment, population growth and shifts in management focus of the Swedish wild boar (Sus scrofa) population

BACKGROUND

The wild boar (Sus scrofa) was extinct in Sweden when a few animals established in the 1970s. Over the past 35 years, the species has made a substantial comeback. In this paper, we analyse wild boar population growth using three indices of population size. We also map the legislative decisions and research prompted by the expanding population. We discuss to what extent, in the eyes of the state, the view of wild boar and the management focus has shifted over time, from a perceived pest (eradication) to scarce (conservation), overabundant (reduction/control) or somewhere in between (sustainable management).

RESULTS

Wild boar harvest started in the early 1990s with a few hundred animals annually and peaked at 161,000 in 2020/2021. The distribution now comprises most of southern Sweden. Analyses of harvest and traffic accidents involving wild boar showed that the population grew exponentially until 2010/2011, after which the increase levelled off. Thus, logistic growth models showed the best fit for the full study period. We recorded 38 legislative decisions or commissions to government agencies regarding wild boar. The first decision in 1981 was to eradicate the free-ranging population. In 1987 however, the parliament decided that wild boar is native to Sweden and should be allowed in restricted extent. Later decisions mainly concerned hunting regulations and hunting methods as direct means to increase harvest and regulate the population. Another topic, increasing in importance over time, was to facilitate the use of wild boar meat to indirectly stimulate harvest. A local outbreak of African swine fever in 2023 necessitated a stamping out strategy in the affected area. We found 44 scientific papers regarding the present free-ranging population. Topics include movements and feeding patterns, hunting, reproduction, and population development.

CONCLUSIONS

The state historically regarded wild boar as a pest to be eradicated. This changed with the decision that wild boar should be allowed in restricted extent, suggesting a conservation approach. In response to population growth, the focus shifted to means facilitating sustainable management and, lately, reducing growth. The story of wild boar in Sweden illustrates attempts to mitigate conflicts and balance interests in wildlife management.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

Ecological threshold of phosphorus load in Baiyangdian Lake based on a PCLake model and ecological network analysis

Ecological thresholds are a useful indicator for implementing ecological management. Many studies determine the thresholds for nutrient loads in lakes based on the maximum allowable concentration of chlorophyll a (Chla), although this neglects the overall performance of the ecosystem. A PCLake model of Baiyangdian (BYD) Lake in northern China was constructed with six ecological network analysis (ENA) indicators that characterized the ecosystem function, system maturity, and food web structure to quantify the overall status of the BYD ecosystem. To my knowledge, this is the first study on the system level responses of the BYD Lake to phosphorus load interference. Different phosphorus load scenarios were designed to simulate the ecological responses of BYD Lake. The simulated results were employed to calculate the ENA indicators. Ecological thresholds were determined through the driving response relationship between the phosphorus load gradient and the ENA indicators. The results show a non-linear transition response of ENA indicator under phosphorus load gradient. As phosphorus load increases, D/H, SOI, and FCI decreases while A/DC, TPP/TR, and TPP/TB increases. This indicates that the overall structure and function of the ecosystem will deteriorate if phosphorus load increases. The phosphorus load thresholds for the overall performance of BYD Lake were 0.50-1.32 mg m-2 d-1, slightly wider than that of Chla (0.53-1.26 mg m-2 d-1). The model results clearly indicate that there is a time-lag phenomenon at the switch points in the response of ENA indicators compared to that of single functional group. In addition, the A/DC, TPP/TR, SOI, and FCI present more time-lag than that of other ENA indicators. These time-lag effects provide a particular opportunity for biodiversity conservation. Therefore, a possible management strategy is proposed to combine system-level and function group-level thresholds, with the ENA-based threshold as the bottom line and the phytoplankton's threshold as the early-warning indicator. This design is expected to be more precise and efficient, by exploiting the advantages of two thresholds, and may benefit for ecological management practices.

The importance of structural, situational, and psychological factors for involving hunters in the adaptive flyway management of geese

Adaptive flyway management of superabundant geese is emerging as a strategy to reduce damage to agricultural crops and other ecosystem disservices, while also ensuring sustainable use and conservation objectives. Given the calls for intensified hunting as part of flyway management in Europe, we need to increase the understanding of structural, situational, and psychological factors important for goose hunting among hunters. Our survey data, retrieved in southern Sweden, showed a higher potential to intensify hunting among goose hunters than other hunters. In response to hypothetical policy instruments (including regulations, collaborative, and others), hunters declared a minor increase in their intention to hunt geese, with the greatest expected increase among goose hunters should the hunting season be extended. Situational factors (e.g., access to hunting grounds) were associated with goose hunting (frequency, bag size, and intention to increase hunting). In addition, controlled motivation (derived from external pressures or to avoid guilt) and more importantly autonomous motivation (due to hunting being enjoyable or valuable) were along with goose hunter identity positively associated with goose hunting. Hunters' involvement in flyway management may be encouraged by using policy instruments to remove situational barriers and facilitate their autonomous motivation.